@pwtaylor | @dustinhaisler

Exponen'al Defined

Merriam Webster

adjective ex·po·nen·tial \ˌek-spə-ˈnen-chəl\ (1) very fast : increasingly rapid

First known use: 1704

Something Different is Going On

ChiefInforma-onOfficerChiefTechnologyOfficerChiefInforma-onSecurityOfficerChiefInnova-onOfficerChiefofPerformanceandTechnologyChiefDataOfficerChiefDataScien-stChiefDigitalOfficerChiefInsightsOfficerChiefArchitectureOfficerChiefResearchOfficerChiefResiliencyOfficerChiefCustomerOfficerChiefAnaly-csOfficerChiefPrivacyOfficerChiefConnec-onOfficerChiefBicycleOfficerChiefofStreetsChiefElectricVehicleOfficer

Seeing Preferred Futures

Exponen'al Aging

Exponen'al Movement

Exponen'al Movement

Exponen'al Change

Ray Kurzweil

”Technical progress is currently doubling every decade. The technological progress in the 21st century will be equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200 centuries. In contrast, the 20th century saw only about 25 percent of progress (at today’s rate of progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. So, the 21st century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor.”

Exponen'al Change

Singularity University

Brushes with the Exponen=al

Exponen'al Inves=ng

Exponen'al Inves=ng

Vanguard

Bonds

Int'lSmall Cap

Mid Cap

Large Cap

Infrastructure

SecurityxGov

eGov

Big Systems

Infrastructure

SecurityxGov

eGov

Big Systems

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A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N

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A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N

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A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N

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A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N

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A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N

8 , 0 0 0 Y E A R S

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I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N

8 , 0 0 0 Y E A R S

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I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N

8 , 0 0 0 Y E A R S

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I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N

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I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N L I G H T B U L B

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I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N L I G H T B U L B

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I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N L I G H T B U L B

1 2 0 Y E A R S

L I G H T B U L B

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L I G H T B U L B

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L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G

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L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G

9 0 Y E A R S

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L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G

9 0 Y E A R S

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L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G

W O R L D W I D E W E B

9 0 Y E A R S

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L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G

W O R L D W I D E W E B

2 2 Y E A R S9 0 Y E A R S

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L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G

W O R L D W I D E W E B

2 2 Y E A R S9 0 Y E A R S

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L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G

W O R L D W I D E W E B

2 2 Y E A R S9 0 Y E A R S

H U M A N G E N O M E S E Q U E N C E D

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L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G

W O R L D W I D E W E B

2 2 Y E A R S9 0 Y E A R S

H U M A N G E N O M E S E Q U E N C E D

9 Y E A R S

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The World We Knew

The ShiC

The World Ahead

Exponen'al Government

Where to Start

The World We Knew

Finishing the eGovernment Experiment …

But Exponen:al is not just the new eGov …

Exponen:al is xGov …

Pivo=ng toward the Future

Pivo=ng toward the Future

Manual+Mechanical Means

Closed Expert Systems

. Infrastructure is King

A Compu'ng Mausoleum

Walled-Garden Mobility

Pivot to Open PlaHorms

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 0Private Everything

Outsourced Change

• States on track to meet revenue projections: 41* • State debt levels decline for the first time in 28 years ** • Ending balances for cities nearing pre-recession highs, but still lower than

2006 levels • State pension shortfalls approaching $1 Trillion - gap between promised

and available rising by 6% ***

* NASBO ** Moody’s *** Pew

Scarce Public Resources

IT’s Produc'vity Dividend

State governments are leaving

on the table$11 Billion

Exponen'al Bow Wave of 1% RaiseBase: $50,000 Health Insurance: $15,000/year Source: Portland State University Hatfield School

1% Raise: $500 Health Insurance: $750 (+5%) PERS, PTO, FICA, UI, Payroll Taxes: $220 (45%)

“Felt Raise” to Employee

Cost to Public Employer

Cost to Taxpayer

Before Tax

Exponen'al Bow Wave of 1% RaiseBase: $50,000 Health Insurance: $15,000/year Source: Portland State University Hatfield School

1% Raise: $500 Health Insurance: $750 (+5%) PERS, PTO, FICA, UI, Payroll Taxes: $220 (45%)

“Felt Raise” to Employee

Cost to Public Employer

Cost to Taxpayer

Before Tax

$400

Exponen'al Bow Wave of 1% RaiseBase: $50,000 Health Insurance: $15,000/year Source: Portland State University Hatfield School

1% Raise: $500 Health Insurance: $750 (+5%) PERS, PTO, FICA, UI, Payroll Taxes: $220 (45%)

“Felt Raise” to Employee

Cost to Public Employer

Cost to Taxpayer

Before Tax

$400 $1420 $1800

The ShiC

Andy Grove’s Challenge

Moore, Metcalf and Reed

Moore, Metcalf and Reed

Exponen'al Compu'ng, Networks, and Social

US Teens: Social Media is a Chore

Behavioral ShiCs

Individual ShiCs

Organiza:onal ShiCs

S O U R C E : E X P O N E N T I A L O R G A N I Z AT I O N S

Societal ShiCs

IT Milestones

Everything-as-a-Service

Unbundled Everything

Unbundled Everything

What Does This Mean?

E F F O R T, A D O P T I O N C Y C L E S , T I M E T O M A R K E T C A P I TA L I Z AT I O N I S E X P O N E N T I A L LY D E C AY I N G .

1 2 3

Change Is Exponen=al

V

The World Ahead

The Tech

Exponen:al Connected Devices

Exponen:al Compu=ng

Exponen:al Risks

TODAY

SOURCE: THE FUTURE X NETWORK (2015)

Exponen:al Cost Decay

The Future of Work

Work Today

F R E E L A N C I N G

N O T F R E E L A N C I N G

Work Today

Work in 2020

Freelancers Union

F R E E L A N C I N G

N O T F R E E L A N C I N G

Work in 2020

Freelancers Union

Millennials

Adap=ve Work Models

G O V E R N M E N T O R G A N I Z AT I O N S T H AT H A R N E S S E X P O N E N T I A L T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D M O D E L S O F W O R K .

P E O P L E

P E O P L E

Infrastructure

P E O P L E

Infrastructure

People

P E O P L E

Infrastructure

People

Intelligence

P E O P L E

Infrastructure

Open Data

Leveraged Connected Devices (IoT)

Scalable Infrastructure

Exponen:al Infrastructure

Data Standards

Scalable Infrastructure

Leveraged Connected Devices

Open Data

Data Standards

Data Standards

P E O P L EPeople

Adaptive Organizational Structures

On-Demand / Hybrid Labor

Crowdsourced Work / Microtasking

Exponen:al People

Crowdsourced Work

P R O B L E M S S O L U T I O N S F U N D I N G

R E S E A R C H I M P L E M E N TAT I O N VA L I D AT I O N

What Else Can Be Crowdsourced?

On-Demand/Hybrid Labor

Adap=ve Organiza:on Models

L E A N - S TA RT U P M O V E M E N T

A G I L E P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T H O L A C R A C Y

P E O P L E

Intelligence

Predictive/Contextual User Experiences

Exponen:al Intelligence

Performance and Innovation Metrics

Government-as-an-API

Third-Party Data Integration

Third-Party Data Integra=on

Performance Metrics

Contextual Experiences

Piecing It All Together

P E O P L E

Infrastructure

People

Intelligence

P E O P L E

Infrastructure

People

Intelligence

Government-as-an-API

“Real people getting stuff done with — not despite — government has measurable economic and social benefits.”

In Ac=on

N E W U R B A N M E C H A N I C SI N N O VA T I O N I N C U B A T O R S

N E W U R B A N P R A C T I C E SP H I L A N T H R O P I C S U P P O R T F O R C I V I C I N N O VA T I O N

O F F I C E O F C I V I C I N N O VAT I O N

C H I E F I N N O VAT I O N / P E R F O R M A N C E O F F I C E R S

I N N O VAT I O N L A B S

P U B L I C - P R I VAT E S H A R I N G PA R T N E R S H I P S

E N T R E P R E N E U R - I N - R E S I D E N C ED E L I V E R Y S T R U C T U R E S

I N N O VAT I O N D E L I V E R Y T E A M S

C O D E F O R A M E R I C A : B R I G A D E S

E M P L O Y E E - I N N O VAT I O N F U N D S

Where to Start With

Where to Start With1. Start: The Covey Admonition 2. Take a Principled Approach 3. Non Linear Path: The Grove Imperative 4. Go Where the People Are 5. Launch and Learn 6. Educate Yourself & Your Employees 7. Experiment Like You Invest 8. Start a Conversation With Your Network 9. Embrace Constraints 10.Don’t Be Afraid to do Big Things

Paul W. Taylor, Chief Content Officer ptaylor@erepublic.com

@pwtaylor

Dustin Haisler, Chief Innovation Officer dhaisler@erepublic.com

@dustinhaisler

www.exponentialgov.com