Exploring the Frontiers of U.S.-China Strategic Cooperation: Energy and Climate Change

8/21/2019 Exploring the Frontiers of U.S.-China Strategic Cooperation: Energy and Climate Change

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Exploring the Frontiers of U.S.-China Strategic Cooperation:

Energy and Climate ChangeEdited by Melanie Hart November 2014


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Exploring the Frontiers of U.S.-China

Strategic Cooperation:

Energy and Climate Change

Edited by Melanie Hart November 2014

Melanie Hart, Center for American Progress

WANG Ke, Renmin University of China

Joanna Lewis, Georgetown University

YU Hongyuan, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies


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1 Introduction: Time to Take U.S.-China Energy

and Climate Cooperation to the Next Level

5 Expanding U.S.-China Climate Cooperation

Beyond the Bilateral

By Melanie Hart

13 Building a New Type of Major Power Relationship

Through Climate Cooperation Will Require New

Thinking from the United States By WANG Ke

20 Changing the Paradigm for U.S.-China Engagement

on Clean Energy and Climate Change

By Joanna I. Lewis

26 Changing Chinese and U.S. Roles in the Global Energy

Market: Careful Management Needed By YU Hongyuan

Contents


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1 Center for American Progress | Energy and Climate Change

Introduction:Time to Take U.S.-China Energy and

Climate Cooperation to the Next LevelTe Unied Saes and China have a unique window o opporuniy o achieve

measurable progress on energy and climae change and o upgrade he U.S.-China

relaionship across he board. Te wo naions currenly share more ineress

in his space han in any oher. On miliary issues, or example, dialogue has

improved remendously in recen years. Bu a a sraegic level, he Unied Saes

and China are sill primarily jus rying o avoid desabilizing incidens in he Asia-

Pacific. On cyber securiy, he governmen-o-governmen working group under

he Sraegic and Economic Dialogue, or S&ED, has been unable o even schedulemeeings, much less hink abou acual policy deliverables. On economic issues,

commercial complains are growing on boh sides o he Pacific and making i

increasingly difficul o agree on anyhing new and concree ha would deepen

marke inegraion in he near-o-medium erm.

I U.S. and Chinese leaders wan heir meeings o produce somehing new and

concree, here is a growing consensus in boh capiols ha energy and climae

cooperaion is he only rack ha can reliably deliver. Te range o energy and

climae deliverables rolled ou hus ar is ruly breahaking. Curren bilaeral

projecs include cooperaion on advanced vehicle echnology, clean coal, building

efficiency, greenhouse gas-emission monioring, smar grid echnology, shale gas

developmen, and many ohers. Tere is virually no area o his domain where he

wo naions are no cooperaing in some way. Mos imporanly, his cooperaion

is in he orm o real projecs ha involve people rom boh sides geting ogeher

o acually do somehing. By any measure, his area o he relaionship has become

a rue acion rack, no an empy-alk rack.

A he same ime, however, i is imporan o make sure ha his growing array

o acion-oriened projecs evenually adds up o somehing more han a seadysream o deliverables or high-level meeings. On climae change, in paricular,

bilaeral cooperaion will no be considered a rue win unless hose aciviies have

an impac ha goes ar beyond he bilaeral relaionship. Mos imporanly, oher

naions around he world are looking o he Unied Saes and China o break


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down he curren impasse beween developed and developing counries and serve

as he poles around which he res o he world could rally o orm a new global

climae agreemen in 2015.

Unorunaely, i is specifically on hose big-picure issues where he Unied Saes

and China are sill coming up shor. Looking beneah he surace o his newacion rack, he wo naions sill do no see eye o eye on issues o principle such

as how o divide climae responsibiliy among naions or how o bes srucure

global energy insiuions.

In Ocober 2014, he Cener or American Progress convened a group o rising

U.S. and Chinese scholars o discuss hese and oher difficul issues in he bilaeral

relaionship. Tis essay collecion presens he views o he energy and climae

expers who led he discussion on hese issues. For more deail on criical hemes

ha emerged rom he closed-door rack II discussions, see Expanding he

Fronier o U.S.-China Sraegic Cooperaion Will Require New Tinking on BohSides o he Pacific.

Te scholars in his essay collecion all agree ha, alhough recen progress in he

energy and climae space has been admirable, ha progress has ocused primarily

on low-hanging rui, and i is now ime o kick cooperaion up a noch and sar

chipping away a he ruly difficul issues ha sill divide us.

Melanie Hart, direcor or China Policy a Cener or American Progress, sars

off his essay collecion by arguing ha he reason U.S.-China energy and climae

cooperaion has been able o flourish a he bilaeral level is because hose projecs

primarily involve a ranser o knowledge or assisance o he Chinese, wih China

playing he developing economy role i is mos amiliar wih. W hen U.S. lead-

ers ry o carry ha spiri o cooperaion over o mulilaeral orums or reducing

greenhouse gas emission, hey run ino wo problems. Firs, alhough Chinas

economy is sill developing, in a larger group, China looks like a major power.

Ta brings inernaional demands or China o ake on new responsibiliies,

which Chinese leaders are wary o a heir curren developmen level, paricularly

since here are no clear models or wha level o responsibiliy a major-power, bu

middle-income naion should have. Second, when he goal is reducing greenhousegas emissions, U.S. and Chinese leaders wan o make sure any acion hey ake

a home is reciprocaed abroad, and U.S. and Chinese leaders are paricularly

suspicious o one anoher in his regard. Melanie recommends ha he Unied

Saes and China ake near-erm acion o fill in hese inormaion gaps. In he


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mulilaeral arena, he Unied Saes can uilize small-group orums such as he

Arcic Council o help Chinese leaders experimen wih new models o climae

responsibiliy, hus building up heir comor level or more ambiious acion in

larger-group, higher-impac orums such as he U.N. Framework Convenion on

Climae Change, or UNFCCC. Melanie also recommends ha U.S. and Chinese

leaders launch a bilaeral climae impac assessmen program o give boh sidesmore inormaion abou heir counerpars poliical ineress in he climae space.

WANG Ke, assisan proessor a he Renmin Universiy School o Environmen

and Naural Resources and Research Fellow a he Renmin Universiy Naional

Academy o Developmen and Sraegy, poins ou ha rom a Chinese perspec-

ive, he bigges problem is no how o increase Chinas climae leadership role bu

raher how o ge he Unied Saes and oher developed naions o recognize ha

hey also need o do more. He argues ha a significan porion o Chinas carbon

ooprin comes rom producing goods ha are hen expored o consumers in he

Unied Saes and oher developed naions. In he globalized era, emissions andemission-reducion responsibiliies canno be perecly divided among naions

because he indusrial processes ha produce hose emissions are par o a global

supply chain. He recommends more inegraed emission-reducion approaches

ha include echnology ransers and oher orms o assisance or emerging mar-

kes such as China since hose naions are working o reduce no only heir own

carbon ooprins bu hose o he enire global value chain.

Joanna Lewis, associae proessor o Science, echnology and Inernaional Affairs

a he Georgeown Universiy Edmund A. Walsh School o Foreign Service, offers

suggesions or how o beter leverage he bilaeral relaionship beween he Unied

Saes and China in order o influence boh he oucome o he inernaional climae

negoiaions and he likelihood ha any arges pledged may acually be achieved.

She argues ha while he bilaeral cooperaion ha has occurred o dae in he clean

energy and climae space has aciliaed consrucive dialogue, i has been modes in

scope, so ar lacking he ypes o commimens ha could be ruly game changing

when viewed rom an inernaional conex. As a resul, she hinks i is worh con-

sidering he ypes o high-impac announcemens ha migh be more poliically and

economically easible wihin he nex year, ha could ge bilaeral buy in rom he

wo larges emiters, and ha could have global reverberaions. Joanna recommendsha U.S. and Chinese leaders se up a join clean energy research and developmen

und, expand cooperaion on climae adapaion and resilience, and look or oppor-

uniies o link domesic implemenaion o naional climae policies.


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YU Hongyuan, proessor and depuy direcor o he Insiue or Comparaive

Poliics and Public Policy a he Shanghai Insiues or Inernaional Sudies, or

SIIS, concludes his essay collecion by ocusing on an issue ha has no received

as much atenion as i should in recen high-level energy and climae alks: how o

srucure he global energy regime and wha ha means or global ossil-uel mar-

kes and Chinas energy securiy. Te Chinese economy is sill primarily dependenon ossil uels. Due o is growing domesic demand, China recenly surpassed he

Unied Saes as he worlds larges oil imporer. From a Chinese perspecive, ha

opens heir naion up o new securiy risks because hey are growing increasingly

dependen on a se o global insiuions and global sea lanes ha, in heir view, are

predominanly conrolled by he Unied Saes. Some o he seps China is aking

o hedge agains hose riskssuch as srenghening is energy parnership wih

Iranare creaing a new source o ension beween China and he Unied Saes.

Hongyuan suggess ha U.S. and Chinese leaders should cooperae o reorm cur-

ren energy insiuions o improve represenaion or China and oher non-OECD

naions. Where reorm is no possible in he curren srucure, he Unied Saesand China should look or new, more represenaive orums.

Te Ocober 2014 Cener or American Progress U.S.-China dialogue also covered

regional and global securiy challenges. For essay collecions on hose opics, see:

Exploring he Froniers o U.S.-China Sraegic Cooperaion: Visions or Asia-

Pacific Securiy Archiecure

Exploring he Froniers o U.S.-China Sraegic Cooperaion: Roles and

Responsibiliies Beyond he Asia-Pacific Region


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Expanding U.S.-ChinaClimate CooperationBeyond the BilateralBy Melanie Hart

By any measure, energy and climae cooperaion is one o he mos producive

areas o he U.S.-China relaionship. When Presiden Barack Obama and Presiden

Xi Jinping me a he Sunnylands esae in Caliornia in June 2013, climae change

was he only opic ha presened enough common ineres or a new agreemen.1

In summi afer summi, cooperaion on energy and climae change has become

he new acion rack or U.S.-China relaions. Te wo counries share more com-

mon ineres in his space han in any oher, and ha makes i possible o ideniy

and quickly pursue join acions ha benefi boh sides. On oher criical issues,

such as Norh Korean denuclearizaion or cyber securiy, one can only dream o

ha ype o acion-oriened progress.

However, he problem on he climae ron is ha, alhough he Unied Saes and

China are aking an increasing array o join acions a he bilaeral level, hose acions

are no enough o acually slow he pace o global warming. 2Te Unied Saes and

China are he worlds larges greenhouse gas emitersso any acions aken ogeher

will cerainly have an ousized impacbu real progress requires global soluions.Te Unied Saes and China need o be able o work ogeher, no only on small bila-

eral projecs, bu on bigger mulilaeral effors ha mobilize oher major emiters and

have a measurable impac on global emperaures as well. Te mos imporan ype o

climae acion he Unied Saes and China could ake would be o cooperae wihin a

broader mulilaeral conex, and ha is exacly where hey are coming up shor.


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When aking a closer look a he bilaeral projecs moving orward in his space, a

patern emerges: Te wo counries can make subsanial progress in areas where

he Unied Saes has a comparaive advanage and can offer some orm o assis-

ance o China. For example, he Clean Energy Research Cener, or CERC, proj-

ecs give Chinese enerprises and research insiues more exposure o advanced

U.S. clean energy echnologies. Collaboraion beween he U.S. EnvironmenalProecion Adminisraion, or EPA, and Chinas Minisry o Environmen

Proecion aims o help China build beter echnical and regulaory capaciy or

polluion reducion. Te projecs under he en-Year Framework or Cooperaion

on Energy and Environmen and he Sraegic and Economic Dialogue, or S&ED,

Climae Change Working Group ollow a similar patern: Te iniiaives making

he mos progress are hose ha involve a ranser o knowledge or assisance rom

he Unied Saes o China.

o be sure, he Unied Saes benefis rom hese iniiaives as well. By helping

China clean up is environmen, he Unied Saes is also cleaning is own becausepolluion is mobile. When he Unied Saes helps China expand is energy econ-

omy, new marke opporuniies are creaed or U.S. businesses. From an American

perspecive, his arrangemen allows he Unied Saes o make he mos o is

srenghs and o help China move in a direcion ha benefis boh naions.

When U.S. leaders ry o carry his success over ino a mulilaeral climae

negoiaion conex, however, hey run ino wo problems. Firs, in a mulilaeral

environmen he dynamic is compleely differen. Te only ime China can claim

o be on he weaker side o he able is when i is dining alone wih he Unied

Saes. As soon as more players come o he able, China suddenly becomes a

grea power. Wih grea power comes grea responsibiliy, and ha appears o

make Chinese leaders very uncomorable in a climae conex because here are

no preexising models o a major economy aking on aggressive emission-reduc-

ion acions a Chinas curren level o developmen. Chinese leaders are well

aware ha he res o he world expecs China o ake on more climae responsi-

biliies, bu hey ear ha more responsibiliies is a slipper y slope wih no clear

end poin. Wihou a clear model o move oward, Chinese leaders would raher

say exacly where hey are.

Second, he purpose o mulilaeral climae negoiaions is o encourage all major

emiters o ake reciprocal acion, and U.S. and Chinese leaders sill do no have

enough inormaion abou one anohers poliical incenives in he climae space o

rus ha heir acions will ruly be reciprocaed. Te U.S.-China climae inorma-

ion defici is a major barrier o global progress on emission reducion because he


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Unied Saes is he worlds bigges emiter among developed counries and China

is he bigges emiter among developing counriesi hese wo naions can make

ambiious reciprocal emission-reducion commimens here is a high probabiliy

ha oher naions will ollow sui. Unorunaely, he reverse also applies: I he

Unied Saes and China do no ake sufficienly ambiious acion under he U.N.

Framework Convenion on Climae Change, ha will likely dial down ambiionamong oher naions and make i much harder o slow he pace o global warming.

Tere are seps he Unied Saes can ake in he very near erm o address boh o

hese challenges.

China needs practice sessions

From Beijings perspecive, he Chinese economy is sill in a criical and very sen-

siive ransiional phase. As a middle-income naion, China sill has difficul barri-ers o overcome beore i can hope o move up he developmen ladder o become

a high-income economy. Chinese leaders repeaedly sae ha hey eel hey are

in a more vulnerable posiion han heir counerpars in developed naions. Tey

ace an array o problemssuch as crippling environmenal polluionha U.S.

leaders successully ackled decades ago. However, due o Chinas massive geog-

raphy and populaion, i is on rack o become he bigges economy in he world.

Inernally, China is an awkward eenager, sill experiencing growing pains. On he

world sage, China is a grea power, and oher naions are looking o China o play

a leadership role. Ta role brings glory bu also heavy responsibiliies, paricularly

on climae change issues.

Mulilaeral climae orums pu China in a very difficul posiion. China is now he

worlds larges greenhouse gas emiter, so i aces major inernaional pressure o

ake aggressive emission-reducion acions.3Oher naions look o China o play a

grea power role and make aggressive firs movesin he orm o srong emission-

reducion commimensha will se a posiive preceden or oher naions

o ollow. Ta makes Chinese leaders very nervous because hey do no ye see

hemselves as a grea power in an economic sense, and climae policy is closely

ied o economic policy. Tey worry ha heir domesic economy will aler in henear uure, ha hey will need every ool in heir policy arsenal o keep he engine

running, and ha behaving as a grea power on he climae ron would require

hem o give up policy ools hey may laer need during a uure economic crisis.


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Tese ears are undersandable. I is difficul o ake on exernal leadership roles

when he siuaion a home eels shaky. Unorunaely, he global communiy

canno afford o sep back, give he Chinese economy more ime o raverse he

reacherous middle-income phase, and ask China o play a leadership role a some

uure poin when i eels more comorable doing so. Global emperaure rends

are rising oo quickly o allow any major greenhouse gas emiters o ake a ime-ou. For he sake o he plane, all major emiters mus do more, paricularly he

Unied Saes and China.

Te big quesion is wha doing more o reduce emissions should look like or a

naion such as China, a grea power in erms o climae impac ye economically

insecure a home. Ta quesion is difficul o answer in orums under he U.N.

Framework Convenion on Climae Change, or UNFCCC. Tere are 196 paries

o he UNFCCC. A decision ha direcly affecs 196 naionsand he ae o

he enire planeis a very high-sakes decision. When he sakes are ha high,

he naural inclinaion is o sick wih he role or sraegy ha is he mos amil-iar. From Chinese leaders perspecive, he role hey are mos amiliar wih is he

low-pressure, sidelines role ha China and oher developing counries have been

able o play under he Kyoo Proocol. Chinese leaders appear o undersand ha

hey will need o ake a differen approach or he pos-Kyoo climae negoiaions,

which aim o creae a new beyond-2020 global climae agreemen by December

2015. However, i is hard o figure ou wha ha new approach migh look like.

Due o heir sill-developing economy, Chinese leaders do no eel hey should be

held o he same high sandards or reducing emission as developed naions, bu

previous climae negoiaions have only offered wo choices: he developed-econ-

omy as lane and he developing-economy slow lane. Wha he climae commu-

niy is lacking is a clear ransiion pah ha allows growing economies o gradually

ramp up heir commimens in line wih heir developmen saus. However, he

problem is ha ormulaing such a new model requires a degree o experimena-

ion, and China is undersandably nervous abou making any experimenal moves

in he middle o a high-sakes negoiaion.

Wha Chinese leaders need are some pracice sessionsopporuniies o ry on

differen climae roles and responsibiliies in mulilaeral conexs ha are noas high pressure and hus allow or more experimenaion. Ta is wha Chinese

leaders do in a domesic conex: Tey generally es new policies in small-scale

pilo programs beore rolling hem ou naionwide. Tere is less risk involved in

small-scale rials, so poliical leaders can be bolder. Te same principle applies

in he inernaional climae space. Te Unied Saes needs o find good bridge


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projecs ha give China a chance o ry ou new climae roles in a lower-pressure

conex. Chinese leaders should be more willing o experimen in mulilaeral

orums where oher naions do no consider he Chinese conribuion o be he

make-or-break elemen o success and where he ocus is narrow enough o elimi-

nae Chinese negoiaor ears ha experimenal acion in one orum will creae

precedens ha carry over ino ohers, paricularly he UNFCCC.

Te Unied Saes has an immediae opporuniy o engage China in his ype o

low-risk experimenaion under he Arcic Council. Te Unied Saes is one o

eigh Arcic Council member saes and will ake over he roaing chairmanship

role nex year.4China is 1 o 12 non-Arcic observer naions. Arcic empera-

ures are warming a wice he global average, which speeds he mel o Arcic

ice, increases sea levels around he world, and hreaens coasal communiies in

he Unied Saes and China. One paricular ask Arcic Council member saes

and observer naions could work on ogeher o slow hese rising emperaures

is o joinly reduce black carbon and mehane emissions, boh o which have anousized impac on ice mel.5Making black carbon and mehane pledges under

he Arcic Council would give China an opporuniy o make new inernaional

commimens ha closely rack he acions China is already aking a home o

address domesic air polluion. Alhough China is no an Arcic naion, i is hugely

impaced by sea-level rise, and he black carbon and mehane emissions ha

speed meling in he Arcic also affec he ibean plaeau and cause meling ha

severely hreaens Chinas ood and waer securiy.6Join acion on hese specific

polluans under he Arcic Council would grealy benefi China, bu since i is no

an Arcic Council member sae, Chinese negoiaors should have wide leeway o

experimen wih how hey srucure any new commimens under ha orum.

Te Arcic Council is a pre-exising urnkey insiuion ha is already perecly

se up or his ype o experimenaion. New orums could also be creaed. For

example, he Unied Saes and China could work ogeher o creae a new orum

or regional climae impac assessmens and coordinaed disaser response in he

Asia-Pacific region. A presen, securiy discussions in he Asia-Pacific region

ocus primarily on mariime conflics. Te Unied Saes and China have no

paid enough atenion o he areas where he srengh o all naionsincluding

Chinacan ac as an exremely useul public good or addressing common crises.U.S. Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III, commander o he U.S. Pacific Command, has

called climae change he bigges hrea o long-erm securiy in he Asia-Pacific

region.7Te Asia-Pacific region already has more naional disasers han any oher

region in he world, and disaser raes are expeced o increase wih acceleraing

global warming and sea-level rise. Te Unied Saes, China, and oher naions in


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he Pacific could build a regional climae-securiy mechanism ha brings ogeher

climae inormaion agencies, such as he U.S. Naional Oceanic and Amospheric

Adminisraion, and climae response agencies, such as he U.S. Agency or

Inernaional Developmen Office o Foreign Disaser Assisance, rom each

naion o aciliae rouine inormaion sharing and coordinae disaser-response

aciviies. From a U.S. perspecive, he U.S. Pacific Command is well posiionedo serve as a local represenaive or a mulilaeral Asia-Pacific climae securiy

program. As wih he Arcic Council, he narrow securiy ocus o his orum

and he diversiy o bureaucraic acors involvedshould allay Chinese negoia-

or ears ha aking on new responsibiliies in his space would rigger auomaic

demands or parallel acions under he UNFCCC.

Regardless o he specific orum or orma, some experimenaion is needed

o help China ry differen roles and responsibiliies in he mulilaeral climae

space and figure ou which ype o grea power role China can play a is curren

developmen level. Te Unied Saes should work proacively o creae hoseopporuniies. A a minimum, by creaing new opporuniies or China o gradu-

ally increase is climae commimens in smaller, lower-sakes mulilaeral setings,

i will be possible o chip away a he acors ha conribue o he rising global

emperaure. I is also possible ha he models ha work well or China in lower-

sakes setings will provide lessons ha carry over o oher orums. I so, ha could

have big impacs no only in he climae space bu also in oher issue areas where

Chinese leaders are rying o figure ou how heir naion should behave as he

worlds new grea power.

Leverage climate impact assessments to reduce mutual suspicion

Te second challenge resraining U.S.-China cooperaion in his space is an

inormaional challenge. Tere is sill a high degree o muual suspicion beween

he Unied Saes and China regarding heir respecive climae responsibiliies and

emission-reducion programs.

Some poliicians in Washingon sill end o view climae acion as a consrain on

economic developmen, and hose poliicians resis signing on o new emission-reducion acions in he Unied Saes due o ears ha China will no reciprocae

and he ne effec o one-sided acion will be ha he Unied Saes will cede an

economic advanage o China.8On he Chinese side, some Chinese leaders and

climae policy expers sill believe ha U.S. effors o push China o ake on more

ambiious programs o reduce greenhouse gas emission are acually a oreign pol-


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icy maneuver aimed a consraining Chinas economic rise. Alhough he Unied

Saes is on rack o mee is 2020 Copenhagen arge based on execuive acions

aken hus ar under he Obama adminisraion, Chinese observers sill look back

a he ac ha he U.S. Congress ailed o pass comprehensive climae legislaion

in Presiden Obamas firs ermand has never ried o resar ha efforas evi-

dence ha he Unied Saes is shirking on he climae promises Presiden Obamamade in Copenhagen. Likewise, many U.S. poliical leaders inerpre discrepan-

cies in Chinas economic daa and problems implemening is domesic energy,

climae, and environmen regulaions as an indicaor ha Chinas climae promises

canno be aken seriously.

Te problem is ha oo many U.S. and Chinese leaders are sill hinking abou

climae commimens primarily as a global public goods issue. Ta makes emission

reducion a collecive acion problem, which means all involved naions have an

incenive o do as litle as possible and ree ride on he res o he group. Te realiy

is ha climae poliics are shifing dramaically, paricularly in he Unied Saes andChina. In boh naions, he ocus is shifing rom benefiing he global public good o

avoiding and miigaing specific climae impacs ha are already happening and are

projeced o increase subsanially in he near uure. Te Unied Saes and China

are already eeling he impacs o exreme weaher, sea-level rise, and oher climae

impacs, and Chinese leaders are also paricularly concerned abou air polluion.9

Wha U.S. and Chinese leaders need is a plaorm or exchanging inormaion

abou how climae change is direcly affecing boh naions, how hose impacs are

projeced o increase, and how policymakers and he general public are reacing

o ha inormaion. Ten he conversaion can shif rom who is doing more

which is difficul o deermine when comparing wo very differen economic

and poliical sysems wih differen developmen rajecorieso wha he wo

naions can do ogeher o help each oher ou wih common problems.

Te Unied Saes is already exremely well posiioned o launch a climae impac

inormaion exchange wih China as i has already pereced his model a home:

Te Obama adminisraion recenly released he hird U.S. Naional Climae

Assessmen, a comprehensive public repor ha drew on he laes scienific daa

o increase undersanding o how climae change is affecing he Unied Saes.10

Te Unied Saes can and should parner wih China o help Chinese officials

launch a parallel program. China can use he U.S. process as a model or effecive

cross-secor, cross-bureaucracy coordinaion, and he Unied Saes can provide

echnical assisance i needed. In he Unied Saes, programs ha assess cli-

mae impac have had a powerul affec on how local leaders hink abou climae


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change, bu Chinese leaders are generally unaware o ha shif.11Once boh

naions are conducing hese assessmens and sharing he resuls, U.S. and Chinese

leaders will gain an enirely new source o inormaion abou heir counerpars

poliical incenives.

Unorunaely, as recen scienific sudies make clear, climae change is no longera problem o he disan uure.12Communiies in he Unied Saes, China, and

around he world are already eeling he impacs o a changing climae. Ta gives

U.S. and Chinese leaders a powerul reason o no only work ogeher on his

imporan global problem bu o also ake care o business a home. Te sooner U.S.

and Chinese leaders realize ha common ineres, he beter. Tis is one area o he

bilaeral relaionship where more accurae inormaion can only lead o progress.

Melanie Hart is the Director for China Policy at the Center for American Progress.

Endnotes

1 Melanie Hart, Chinas Shifting Stance on Hydrofluoro-carbons (Washington: Center for American Progress,2013), available at http://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/HartChinaBrief.pdf.

2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC:Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accelerate despite Reduc-tion Efforts, Press release, April 13, 2014, available athttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ar5/pr_wg3/20140413_pr_pc_wg3_en.pdf.

3 Melanie Hart, China Still Wary of More Ambitious Inter-national Climate Commitments (Washington: Centerfor American Progress, 2012), available at http://cdn.

americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/HartChinaClimate-1.pdf.

4 Cathleen Kelly, Michael Conathan, and Vikram SinghHelping the Arctic Council Find its True North (Wash-ington: Center for American Progress, 2014), availableat http:// cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/up-loads/2014/04/ArcticPolicy.pdf.

5 Rebecca Lefton and Cathleen Kelly, Saving The Arctic(Washington: Center for American Progress, 2014),available at http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2014/08/07/95315/saving-the-arctic/.

6 Jane Qiu, China: the Third Pole,Nature454 (2008):393396, available athttp://www.nature.com/news/2008/080723/full/454393a.html.

7 Atlantic Council, Admiral Locklear Discusses the

Future of Asian Security, March 6, 2014, available athttp://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/past-events/admiral-locklear-discusses-the-future-of-asian-security;Bryan Bender, Chief of US Pacific forces calls climatebiggest worry,The Boston Globe,March 9, 2013,available at http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/na-tion/2013/03/09/admiral-samuel-locklear-commander-pacific-forces-warns-that-climate-change-top-threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/story.html.

8 For example, see U.S. Senate Committee on Environ-ment and Public Works, Vitter Introduces BudgetAmendment to Prohibit GHG Regulations Until China,India & Russia Implement Similar, Press release,March 22, 2013, available athttp://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=932bf398-c568-a52d-e474-cba781fb36cc.

9 For impacts in the United States, see Cathleen Kelly andTracey Ross, One Storm Shy of Despair: A Climate-Smart Plan for the Administration to H elp Low-IncomeCommunities (Washington: Center for American Prog-ress, 2014), available at http://cdn.americanprogress.

org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ResilienceTaskforce-report.pdf. For Chinas pollution concerns, see MelanieHart, Primer on Beijings Slice-and-Dice Approachto Energy and Climate Reform (Washington: Centerfor American Progress, 2014), available athttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/re-port/2014/07/07/93278/primer-on-beijings-slice-and-dice-approach-to-energy-and-climate-reform/.

10 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Obama Administration releases Third NationalClimate Assessment for the United States, May 6,2014, available at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140506_climateassessment.html.

11 For an example of the local political discussions climateimpact assessments are triggering in the United States,see Lori Montgomery, On N.C.s Outer Banks, S caryClimate-Change Predictions Prompt a Change of Fore-

cast, The Washington Post, June 24, 2014, available athttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ncs-outer-banks-got-a-scary-forecast-about-climate-change-so/2014/06/24/0042cf96-f6f3-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.html.

12 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ClimateChange 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabil-ity: Summary for Policymakers (2014), available at:http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf.
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ar5/pr_wg3/20140413_pr_pc_wg3_en.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ar5/pr_wg3/20140413_pr_pc_wg3_en.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2014/08/07/95315/saving-the-arctic/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2014/08/07/95315/saving-the-arctic/http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080723/full/454393a.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/news/2008/080723/full/454393a.htmlhttp://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/past-events/admiral-locklear-discusses-the-future-of-asian-securityhttp://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/past-events/admiral-locklear-discusses-the-future-of-asian-securityhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/03/09/admiral-samuel-locklear-commander-pacific-forces-warns-that-climate-change-top-threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/story.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/03/09/admiral-samuel-locklear-commander-pacific-forces-warns-that-climate-change-top-threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/story.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/03/09/admiral-samuel-locklear-commander-pacific-forces-warns-that-climate-change-top-threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/story.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/03/09/admiral-samuel-locklear-commander-pacific-forces-warns-that-climate-change-top-threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/story.htmlhttp://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=932bf398-c568-a52d-e474-cba781fb36cchttp://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=932bf398-c568-a52d-e474-cba781fb36cchttp://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=932bf398-c568-a52d-e474-cba781fb36cchttp://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=932bf398-c568-a52d-e474-cba781fb36cchttp://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ResilienceTaskforce-report.pdfhttp://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ResilienceTaskforce-report.pdfhttp://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ResilienceTaskforce-report.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2014/07/07/93278/primer-on-beijings-slice-and-dice-approach-to-energy-and-climate-reform/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2014/07/07/93278/primer-on-beijings-slice-and-dice-approach-to-energy-and-climate-reform/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2014/07/07/93278/primer-on-beijings-slice-and-dice-approach-to-energy-and-climate-reform/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2014/07/07/93278/primer-on-beijings-slice-and-dice-approach-to-energy-and-climate-reform/http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140506_climateassessment.htmlhttp://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140506_climateassessment.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ncs-outer-banks-got-a-scary-forecast-about-climate-change-so/2014/06/24/0042cf96-f6f3-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ncs-outer-banks-got-a-scary-forecast-about-climate-change-so/2014/06/24/0042cf96-f6f3-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ncs-outer-banks-got-a-scary-forecast-about-climate-change-so/2014/06/24/0042cf96-f6f3-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ncs-outer-banks-got-a-scary-forecast-about-climate-change-so/2014/06/24/0042cf96-f6f3-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdfhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ncs-outer-banks-got-a-scary-forecast-about-climate-change-so/2014/06/24/0042cf96-f6f3-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ncs-outer-banks-got-a-scary-forecast-about-climate-change-so/2014/06/24/0042cf96-f6f3-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ncs-outer-banks-got-a-scary-forecast-about-climate-change-so/2014/06/24/0042cf96-f6f3-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ncs-outer-banks-got-a-scary-forecast-about-climate-change-so/2014/06/24/0042cf96-f6f3-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.htmlhttp://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140506_climateassessment.htmlhttp://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140506_climateassessment.htmlhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2014/07/07/93278/primer-on-beijings-slice-and-dice-approach-to-energy-and-climate-reform/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2014/07/07/93278/primer-on-beijings-slice-and-dice-approach-to-energy-and-climate-reform/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2014/07/07/93278/primer-on-beijings-slice-and-dice-approach-to-energy-and-climate-reform/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/report/2014/07/07/93278/primer-on-beijings-slice-and-dice-approach-to-energy-and-climate-reform/http://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ResilienceTaskforce-report.pdfhttp://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ResilienceTaskforce-report.pdfhttp://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ResilienceTaskforce-report.pdfhttp://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=932bf398-c568-a52d-e474-cba781fb36cchttp://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=932bf398-c568-a52d-e474-cba781fb36cchttp://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=932bf398-c568-a52d-e474-cba781fb36cchttp://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=932bf398-c568-a52d-e474-cba781fb36cchttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/03/09/admiral-samuel-locklear-commander-pacific-forces-warns-that-climate-change-top-threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/story.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/03/09/admiral-samuel-locklear-commander-pacific-forces-warns-that-climate-change-top-threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/story.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/03/09/admiral-samuel-locklear-commander-pacific-forces-warns-that-climate-change-top-threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/story.htmlhttp://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/03/09/admiral-samuel-locklear-commander-pacific-forces-warns-that-climate-change-top-threat/BHdPVCLrWEMxRe9IXJZcHL/story.htmlhttp://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/past-events/admiral-locklear-discusses-the-future-of-asian-securityhttp://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/past-events/admiral-locklear-discusses-the-future-of-asian-securityhttp://www.nature.com/news/2008/080723/full/454393a.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/news/2008/080723/full/454393a.htmlhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2014/08/07/95315/saving-the-arctic/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2014/08/07/95315/saving-the-arctic/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ar5/pr_wg3/20140413_pr_pc_wg3_en.pdfhttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ar5/pr_wg3/20140413_pr_pc_wg3_en.pdf


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Building a New Type of Major

Power Relationship ThroughClimate Cooperation WillRequire New Thinking fromthe United StatesBy WANG Ke

In December 2012, paries o he U.N. Framework Convenion on Climae

Change, or UNFCCC, launched a negoiaion process ha aims o produce a new

global climae agreemen by December 2015 wih he goal o puting mulilaeral

greenhouse-gas reducion arges in place or he pos-2020 period. Over he pas

wo years, China, he Unied Saes, and he oher UNFCCC paries have engaged

in inensive global consulaions regarding wha ha poenial new agreemen

should look like. Over his same ime period, China and he Unied Saes have

also deepened heir bilaeral cooperaion and dialogue regarding climae change

issues. A he bilaeral level, China and he Unied Saes are increasingly able

o shif ou o mulilaeral climae negoiaion modewhich generally involves

poinless quarrels and finger poiningand behave as pragmaic parners. Te

expansion o China-U.S. bilaeral climae engagemen since he end o 2012 has

been breahaking. Tere are new programs moving orward a muliple adminis-

raive levels ha involve muliple eniies rom boh naions. Ta growing prag-

maism and abiliy o consisenly roll ou new cooperaive programs has moved

climae change o he op o he bilaeral poliical agenda. Now, in 2014, when

Chinese and U.S. leaders mee a he highes levels, i is expeced ha here will bea leas some kind o climae announcemen. Ta represens grea progress in his

dimension o he China-U.S. relaionship.


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Te problem, however, is ha here is sill a deep gul o misrus beween he wo

naions on he issue o how o divide climae responsibiliies beween developed

and developing counries and how ha divide should be refleced in a poenial

new global climae agreemen. o move orward and acually close ha divide

which will be a crucial sep oward a new global agreemenhe Unied Saes

and oher developed counries will have o recognize and address he ac hahey bear some o he responsibiliy or emission growh in China and oher

developing naions rom he perspecive o many developing counries. I he

expanding array o bilaeral aciviies can bring he Unied Saes and China closer

o ha objecive, i would represen he highes measure o success.

Common interests provide strong foundation for bilateral cooperation

China and he Unied Saes share many common ineress in he climae space.

Boh counries are bearing he adverse effecs o climae change. As he worldswo bigges energy consumers, boh naions ace very similar challenges on

improving energy efficiency, expanding renewable energy developmen, and

upgrading criical inrasrucure o improve climae resiliency. When i comes

o finding soluions o hese challenges, he wo naions possess complemenary

srenghs: he Unied Saes generally excels a echnological innovaion, and

China generally excels a deploymen o hese echnologies in he producion pro-

cess. By working ogeher, boh counries can combine srenghs in order o excel

across he value chain. Chinas economy is shifing oward a cleaner and more

efficien developmen model, and ha is creaing an enormous domesic Chinese

marke or clean energy echnologies and producsa marke ha will generae

large-scale demand or advanced U.S. sysems, echnologies, sandards, and man-

agemen experise. China-U.S. collaboraion on low-carbon echnology brings

ogeher U.S. research, developmen, and business models wih Chinas world-

leading manuacuring srengh and enormous marke size. When boh naions

combine orces, i allows U.S. businesses o shape he global supply chain and

global division o labor, o drive down he cos o low-carbon echnology more

quickly, and o expand he global marke o low-carbon echnology and producs.

In urn, hese marke developmens will help o reduce greenhouse gas emis-sions, promoe economic prosperiy, and creae jobs. Low-carbon soluions will

also help he Unied Saes upgrade is inrasrucure a home and make is own

low-carbon economic ransiion easier. As illusraed in a Pew repor, he Unied

Saes and China have already become very complemenary in erms o renewable


18/34


energy producion.1For example, in he solar secor, China is he main supplier o

solar panels o he Unied Saes, and in urn, he Unied Saes is one o Chinas

larges suppliers o high-value componens such as polycrysalline silicon, chemi-

cals, and manuacuring equipmen. In he wind secor, Chinese manuacurers

supply urbine brackes o he Unied Saes, while American businesses provide

glass fiber and elecronic conrol devices o China. China-U.S. cooperaion inhese secors serves as a demonsraion lab and driver or he global shif o low-

carbon echnologies.

China and he Unied Saes also share a common challenge in he mulilaeral cli-

mae regime. As he worlds bigges greenhouse gas emiters, oher naions expec

he wo naions o adop robus domesic emission reducion policies a home,

o play a posiive role in global climae negoiaions a he inernaional level, and

o sign major inernaional climae agreemens. As he worlds larges developed

counry and larges developing counry, respecively, oher naions also expec

China and he Unied Saes o orge new areas o agreemen ha he res o heworld can rally around. Ta is no an easy ask, bu he growing array o bilaeral

energy and climae projecs beween China and he Unied Saes can help in ha

regard. Te more boh counries work ogeher away rom he inernaional media

spoligh and he poinless quarrels and finger poining ha go on in inernaional

climae venues, he more chances boh naions will have o creae an environ-

men or policy dialogue ha is conducive o exensive exchanges and building

rus. Concree cooperaion ends o promoe muual undersanding, paricularly

regarding issues such as he challenges ha he oher side is acing and how boh

counries can seek common ground despie heir differences.

When China and he Unied Saes are able o work ogeher bilaerally in a

concree and posiive way, i influences he global climae negoiaion dynamics as

a whole. I ses an example or oher sakeholders involved in he negoiaion pro-

cess and will ideally help conribue o he successul conclusion o a 2015 global

climae agreemen. Tis is why Chinese and U.S. leaders released he U.S.-China

Join Saemen on Climae Change in 2014, clearly saing ha boh sides rea-

firm heir commimen o conribue significanly o successul 2015 global effors

o mee [he climae and air polluion] challenge.2o a cerain exen, he global

climae regime is an organic componen o global developmen and governance.By joining orces o innovae he global climae regime, he Unied Saes and

China are orging a pah or global rebalancing and building a new ype o global

governance sysem.


19/34


Climate responsibility is still the big divide

Beore hese mulilaeral goals can be reached, however, he Unied Saes will

need o adop a more daa-driven approach o climae responsibiliy. U.S. observ-

ers pay a grea amoun o atenion o he size o Chinas carbon ooprin, and U.S.

officials ofen pressure heir Chinese counerpars on his issue. Chinas currenemissions level maches is developmen sage, energy endowmen, and is role in

he worlds indusrial chain. I is imporan o recognize ha a significan amoun

o Chinas carbon emissions are rom expor manuacuring and are hereore no

Chinas sole responsibiliy. According o a recen sudy by Renmin Universiy,

when Chinas carbon emissions doubled beween 2002 and 2007, around hal

o ha growh was driven by an increase in Chinese manuacuring expors afer

Beijings admission o he World rade Organizaion, or WO, in 2001.3As he

larges ne imporing counry o rade-embodied carbon emissions in he world,

ne impored emissions ino he Unied Saes hrough rade reached 382 mil-

lion meric ons o CO2in 2004,4which accouned or 6.6 percen o oal U.S.domesic energy relaed CO2 emissions.5Among hose oal ne flows, China

alone accouned or 64 percen. According o he laes esimaion, his propor-

ion had urhered increased o 76.9 percen in 2007. In addiion, high-income

Organisaion or Economic Co-operaion and Developmen, or OECD, counries

saw ne carbon impors in 2010 rise o he equivalen o 18 percen o domesic

emissions, up rom abou 2 percen in 1990.6

Tereore, one big acor driving Chinas rising emissions in recen years was he

ac ha companies rom he Unied Saes and oher developed counries were

moving heir emission-inensive producion lines over o China. Tose companies

made heir producs in China o ake advanage o Chinas cheap labor coss and

hen shipped heir producs back o he Unied Saes or ou o oher developed

economy markes. Consumers in he Unied Saes and oher developed coun-

ries were hus able o keep consuming producs wihou breahing he emis-

sions involved in producing hem. A eam o inernaional scholars rom Beijing

Universiy, he Universiy o Caliornia, Irvine, singhua Universiy, Argonne

Naional Laboraory, and he Universiy o Illinois recenly ound ha Chinese

expor manuacuring also conribues a significan amoun o noncarbon air pol-

luans such as sulur dioxideexpors accouned or 36 percen o emissions in2006and nirogen oxide, where expor manuacuring accouned or 37 percen

o emissions in 2006.7Tis means ha China and he Unied Saes are very closely

linked ogeher in combaing climae change hrough bilaeral rade relaions.

Alhough mos developed naions have now enered a pos-indusrial sage where

emissions are racking down, i is imporan o recognize ha one reason hey were


20/34


able o rack down is because hose naions ousourced some o heir producion

aciviies o China and oher developing counries, hereore leading o upward

emission rends in hose developing naions. Now developing counries are work-

ing o shif heir emission pahs. Since heir emissions are a leas parly a produc

o globalizaion, he developed naions mus shoulder some o his responsibil-

iy. Developed naions should serve as a role model on low-carbon echnologyinnovaion and adjusmens o heir energy-inensive liesyles. A he same ime,

developed naions mus also provide developing counries wih he needed und-

ing, echnologies, and suppor or capaciy building o help he later adjus and

seer away rom he pah o energy reliance. Boh sides should also explore win-win

mechanisms ha help achieve low-carbon growh or he enire world.

Tis issue o how o divide responsibiliy or global emissions is a key area o

China-U.S. disagreemen. Te Unied Saes and China have undamenally

differen undersandings o heir respecive responsibiliies and obligaions on

climae change, and hose differen undersandings have creaed misrus. Inorder o move orward, China and he Unied Saes need o adop a more flexible

approach and sidesep debaes on maters o principle, such as heir respecive

responsibiliies and obligaions. Te wo counries should coninue o engage in

high-level dialogue on his issue. Tey should also coninue o combine he di-

ficul op-down search or common views on maters o principle wih pragmaic,

botom-up bilaeral projecs ha can yield quick resuls and serve as low-hanging

rui. Doing so allows peers rom he wo counries o work ogeher side by

side, o exchange and communicae ideas o improve muual undersanding, and

o build rus and reduce suspicion. Te U.S.-China Climae Change Bilaeral

Working Group, esablished in 2013, ollows his line o reasoning. In addiion o

policy dialogue, he group has been working on heavy vehicle and oher auomo-

bile emissions, smar grid, carbon capure, uilizaion and sorage, greenhouse gas-

emissions daa collecion and managemen, and energy efficiency in consrucion

and he indusrial secor.

I will ake concered effor by boh sides o susain and upgrade climae coopera-

ion beween China and he Unied Saes. Areas ha should receive paricular

ocus include:

Boh naions should recognize climae change as a criical sraegic issue and a

long-erm challenge ha requires a long-erm ocus immune o shor-erm fluc-

uaions in he bilaeral relaionship. As Joanna Lewis menions in her essay, i is

no clear o wha degree uure U.S. presidenial adminisraions would suppor


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coninued cooperaion wih China on energy and climae change. Te Unied

Saes and China need o insulae his criical area o he bilaeral relaionship rom

changing poliical winds on eiher side.8

Boh naions should build a broader nework o bilaeral cooperaion ha includes

governmen-o-governmen programs, as well as programs involving businesses,hink anks, individuals, and insiuions. Exchanges among hink anks should

be paricularly emphasized. Tey ac as linchpins beween governmen, business,

academia, and he civil sociey a large and aciliae idea exchanges and deepen

undersanding on key differences in ideas. Subnaional governmens a he provin-

cial or sae and municipal levels should also conduc dialogue on climae policy,

including domesic policy and projec cooperaion, which can help o one down

he poliical aspec o his global issue.

Boh naions should eliminae barriers o cooperaion such as marke-access

resricions and inellecual propery righs dispues, srenghen inormaionsharing, explore win-win business models, and build public-privae parnerships.

A he projec level, he sep-by-sep approach o research and analysis ollowed

by projec proposal, projec demonsraion, and experience disseminaion should

be ollowed so ha cooperaive projecs can be duplicaed and promoed and he

effecs maximized.

China and he Unied Saes should play differen roles in seering he world o

low-carbon developmen and play o each ohers complemenary comparaive

advanages. Trough join research and developmen on low-carbon echnology,

he wo counries can ensure markes or heir echnology a a lower cos while

also providing assisance o he less developed counries. Doing so will make

low-carbon echnology undersandable, affordable, accessible and effecive o

developing counries a large.9

Boh naions should ocus more effor o urn he posiive China-U.S. climae

cooperaion a he bilaeral level ino an organic par o he global climae regime.

Te goal o China-U.S. bilaeral effors should be o complemen oher mulilaeral

channels insead o esablishing a G-2. Boh counries should aim o avoid rigger-

ing misundersanding by oher naions. Te Unied Saes and China should useheir bilaeral srengh o promoe innovaion o he global climae regime.


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Given he long-erm sraegic significance o climae change and he complemen-

ary naure o China and he Unied Saes on his issueincluding heir shared

ineresshe room and poenial or cooperaion is airly large. Since he issue is

less sensiive han securiy issues and less likely o all vicim o shor-erm polii-

cal dynamics, i is more sable and ready or cooperaion and hus could become

a pillar o he bilaeral relaionship.10

Tis pillar could help build muual rus andrespec, pave he way or urher bilaeral cooperaion in he areas o inernaional

poliics, economics, and finance and securiy, and promoe a new ype o major

power relaions beween China and he Unied Saes.

WANG Ke is assistant professor at the Renmin University School of Environment and

Natural Resources and research fellow at the Renmin University National Academy of

Development and Strategy.

Endnotes

1 The Pew Charitable Trusts, Advantage America: TheU.S.-China Clean Energy Technology Trade Relationshipin 2011 (2013), available at http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/reports/2013/03/06/advan-tage-america-the-uschina-clean-energy-technology-trade-relationship-in-2011.

2 U.S. Department of State, U.S.-China Joint State-ment on Climate Change, Press release, February15, 2014, available at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/02/221686.htm.

3 Tengchao Shi and others, Export Carbon Emissions ofChina from 2002 to 2007 in an Import Energy View: AnInput-Output Approach, International Proceedings ofEconomics Development and Research61 (13) (2013):

6064, available at http://www.ipedr.com/vol61/013-ICEFR2013-M10004.pdf.

4 Giles Atkinson and others, Trade in virtual carbon:Empirical results and implications for policy,GlobalEnvironmental Change21 (2) (2011): 563574.

5 Calculated based on domestic energy related CO2emissions from International En ergy Agency, CO2Emissions From Fuel Combustion Highlights: 2011Edition (2011), available athttp://www.iea.org/media/statistics/co2highlights.pdf.

6 The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate,Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Econ-omy Report: The Synthesis (2014), available athttp://newclimateeconomy.report/TheNewClimateEcono-myReport.pdf.

7 Jintai Lin and others, Chinas International Trade andAir Pollution in the United States, Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences of the United States ofAmerica111 (5) (2014): 17361741, available at http://www.pnas.org/content/111/5/1736.

8 Joanna I. Lewis, Changing the Paradigm for U.S.-ChinaEngagement on Clean Energy and Climate Change(Washington: Center for American Progress, 2014).

9 Zou Ji and others, Proposal on Innovative Mechanismfor Development and Transfer of EnvironmentallySound Technologies (ESTs) (New York: MillenniumDevelopment Goals Achievement Fund, 2011), avail-able athttp://www.mdgfund.org/publication/proposal-innovative-mechanism-development-and-transfer-environmentally-sound-technologie.

10 U.S. Department of State, U.S.-China Joint State-ment on Climate Change, Press release, April 13,2013, available at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/04/207465.htm.
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/02/221686.htmhttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/02/221686.htmhttp://www.ipedr.com/vol61/013-ICEFR2013-M10004.pdfhttp://www.ipedr.com/vol61/013-ICEFR2013-M10004.pdfhttp://www.iea.org/media/statistics/co2highlights.pdfhttp://www.iea.org/media/statistics/co2highlights.pdfhttp://newclimateeconomy.report/TheNewClimateEconomyReport.pdfhttp://newclimateeconomy.report/TheNewClimateEconomyReport.pdfhttp://newclimateeconomy.report/TheNewClimateEconomyReport.pdfhttp://www.pnas.org/content/111/5/1736http://www.pnas.org/content/111/5/1736http://www.mdgfund.org/publication/proposal-innovative-mechanism-development-and-transfer-environmentally-sound-technologiehttp://www.mdgfund.org/publication/proposal-innovative-mechanism-development-and-transfer-environmentally-sound-technologiehttp://www.mdgfund.org/publication/proposal-innovative-mechanism-development-and-transfer-environmentally-sound-technologiehttp://www.mdgfund.org/publication/proposal-innovative-mechanism-development-and-transfer-environmentally-sound-technologiehttp://www.mdgfund.org/publication/proposal-innovative-mechanism-development-and-transfer-environmentally-sound-technologiehttp://www.mdgfund.org/publication/proposal-innovative-mechanism-development-and-transfer-environmentally-sound-technologiehttp://www.pnas.org/content/111/5/1736http://www.pnas.org/content/111/5/1736http://newclimateeconomy.report/TheNewClimateEconomyReport.pdfhttp://newclimateeconomy.report/TheNewClimateEconomyReport.pdfhttp://newclimateeconomy.report/TheNewClimateEconomyReport.pdfhttp://www.iea.org/media/statistics/co2highlights.pdfhttp://www.iea.org/media/statistics/co2highlights.pdfhttp://www.ipedr.com/vol61/013-ICEFR2013-M10004.pdfhttp://www.ipedr.com/vol61/013-ICEFR2013-M10004.pdfhttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/02/221686.htmhttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/02/221686.htm


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Changing the Paradigmfor U.S.-China Engagementon Clean Energy andClimate ChangeBy Joanna I. Lewis

In November, Presiden Xi Jinping and Presiden Barack Obama are scheduled

o mee or a much-anicipaed summi ollowing he Asian-Pacific Economic

Cooperaion, or APEC, meeings aking place in Beijing. Tis meeing will be

he firs ime he wo leaders have spoken a lengh since he Sunnylands summi

back in June 2013 and will provide an imporan opporuniy or he wo leaders

o discuss a variey o pressing issues o muual imporance o boh counries.

While clean energy and climae change may no be he op sraegic issue in

he U.S.-China relaionship, i is perhaps he only issue in which here is more

agreemen han disagreemen. As a resul, boh sides are increasingly ocusing

heir effors on his opic wihin he bilaeral relaionship, raising expecaions

or high-level deliverables. Te looming deadline or he nex mulilaeral climae

change reay, scheduled o be agreed upon a he climae change negoiaions in

Paris a he end o 2015, urher raises global expecaions placed on he wo larg-

es greenhouse gas emiters.

Tis essay reviews he curren conex or cooperaion, including enduring con-

srains, and offers suggesions or how o beter leverage he bilaeral relaionshipbeween he Unied Saes and China in order o influence boh he oucome o

he inernaional climae negoiaions and he likelihood ha any arges pledged

may acually be achieved.


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Context and constraints

Boh China and he Unied Saes have begun o reveal he oulines o heir own

domesic sraegies o address climae change, which will likely lay he groundwork

or any orhcoming inernaional pledges or commimens. In he Unied Saes,

he June 2013Climate Action Plan

laid ou an ambiiousbu somewha vaguesraegy or addressing climae change.1

More refined deails ollowed in he Environmenal Proecion Agencys, or EPAs,

proposal or carbon sandards on new power plans, and mos recenly on exising

power plans, esablishing a key par o he ramework or a domesic approach o

reducing carbon emissions.2In China, seven pilo cap-and-rade programs are under

developmen, which are laying he groundwork or a naional program afer 2015. Te

12h five-year plan, or FYP, period has brough abou a noable shif away rom ossil

energy and oward non-ossil energy in he building o new plans, wih addiions o

non-ossil energy capaciy surpassing ossil energy insallaions or he firs ime in2013. In addiion, discussions o caps on coal, and even o carbon emissions peaks,

are increasingly mainsream among Chinese scholars.3As a resul, ypes o miigaion

acions ha were no on he able back in 2009, when counries looked oward 2020

emissions arges in Copenhagen, could increasingly be considered or he 20252030

imerame being discussed in Paris a he upcoming climae negoiaions in 2015.

In he mids o preparaions or Copenhagen in 2009, he Unied Saes and China

launched several new clean energy agreemens ha have allowed or a broad expan-

sion o he bilaeral channels or discussing energy and climae issues. Five years

laer, ar rom waning, U.S. Secreary o Sae John Kerrys added atenion over

he pas year has reinvigoraed cooperaion.4A las years U.S.-China Sraegic

and Economic Dialogue, or S&ED, he Obama adminisraion and Presiden Xi

Jinpings incoming leadership eam signed several new agreemens. Mos signifi-

canly, hese agreemens included he esablishmen o a high-level Climae Change

Working Group, as well as new agreemens o accelerae he phase ou o hydro-

fluorocarbons, or HFCs, poen greenhouse gases ha have replaced he chloro-

fluorocarbons, or CFCs, which were desroying he ozone layer.5During Secreary

Kerrys rip o China in February 2014, he Sae Deparmen announced ha boh

counries reaffirm heir commimen o conribue significanly o successul 2015global effors o mee his challenge.6

Despie hese ruly posiive developmens and years o consrucive dialogue, nei-

her China nor he Unied Saes seems ruly ready o ake on he ype o significan

acion on climae change ha would likely be needed o mobilize a global response


25/34


in 2015 anywhere near he scale o wha would be required o reduce danger-

ous anhropogenic inererence wih he global climae sysem. Boh counries

are sill predominanly relian on ossil uels. While increasing shale gas use has

recenly reduced he share o coal in he Unied Saes, such a patern is unlikely

o be replicaed in China anyime soon, due o he exremely small share o gas in

Chinas energy sysem. Boh counries have made real and imporan progress onclimae policy in he pas year, bu perceived poliical and economic consrains

have prevened any real acion. Should he Democras lose he nex U.S. presiden-

ial elecion in 2016, he window o opporuniy or significan acion on climae

change hrough bilaeral agreemens may close. I is perhaps his siuaionin

which China and he Unied Saes are parners in aking some acions o address

climae change, while avoiding he more difficul issuesha makes China and

he Unied Saes willing o collaborae. Boh counries seem o agree wih he

evenual need or a low-carbon ransiion, bu neiher is willing o do so a he

expense o economic developmen.

As a resul, he ypes o bilaeral cooperaion ha has occurred o dae in he clean

energy and climae space have been modes in scope, so ar lacking he ypes o

commimens ha could be ruly game changing when viewed rom an inerna-

ional conex. Cerainly no all counries have he power o change he inerna-

ional dynamic wih unilaeral or even bilaeral commimens. For example, he

European Unions announcemen a he Sepember U.N. Climae Summi ha i

would cu greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percen rom 1990 levels by 2030 was

received wih litle inernaional anare.7Tere are many reasons o believe ha a

comparable announcemen, i i came rom he Unied Saes and China, would

elici quie a differen response orm he inernaional communiy.

I is unrealisic in he near erm o expec numerical cus along he lines o he

E.U. pledge rom China, due o real domesic consrains relaed o he curren

srucure o is economy and is reliance on coal. However, i is quie possible

ha Chinese officials will pu orward a peak year or carbon emissions, which

according o recen sudies could be achieved beween 2025 and 2035. While

discussions o coal caps and emissions peaks in China have brough new opimism

o hose waching Chinas seemingly ever-growing emissions, in is imporan o

undersand ha a counry under pressure o make an aggressive pledge may sillhave massive challenges o overcome in order o mee any goals announced. Even

in he Unied Saes, i aggressive numerical arges are announced wihou a clear

plan or how hey will be me hrough domesic regulaion, hey will likely be

received inernaionally wih some skepicism.


26/34


As a resul, i is worh considering he ypes o high-impac announcemens ha

migh be more poliically and economically easible wihin he nex year, ha

could ge bilaeral buy-in rom he wo larges emiters, and ha could have global

reverberaions. I is equally imporan, however, ha significan domesic insi-

uional suppor accompanies such acions in order o ensure ollow- hrough.

Many scholars o Sino-U.S. energy and climae cooperaion, who ofen parici-pae in such iniiaives, have recommended imporan ways o improve upon

he exising porolio o aciviies.8Tere are imporan opporuniies o expand

echnical clean energy cooperaion, broaden he curren scope o bilaeral climae

discussion, and improve he ransparency and requency wih which inormaion

is exchanged. Such agreemens are imporan and should be welcomed in he con-

ex o any deliverables prepared or he upcoming presidenial summi. However,

any new bilaeral announcemen by he Unied Saes and China is unlikely o

have game-changing, regime-moivaing implicaions, unless i is o a scale ha ar

exceeds ha o pas cooperaive iniiaives in his field.

Possible examples o such agreemens are briefly skeched below.

Thinking big: Recommendations for high-impact bi lateral

cooperation

1. Sino-U.S. joint clean energy research and development fund

One o he mos ambiious bilaeral clean energy cooperaion iniiaives o dae

beween China and he Unied Saes is he U.S.-China Clean Energy Research

Cener, or CERC. While i is oo early o comprehensively assess is effors, i

is increasingly eviden ha he CERC provides a model or collaboraive clean

energy research and developmen, or R&D, ha is unique in he hisory o U.S.-

China collaboraions in his area.9wo o he mos novel aspecs o he CERC are

agreemens o share unding responsibiliy across he U.S. and Chinese parici-

pans and an agreemen ha governs inellecual propery. Tese wo key elemens

o he CERC could be expanded ino a new mechanism in which he Unied Saes

and China conribue o a join clean energy R&D und o suppor low-carbon

R&D aciviies in boh counies and in collaboraion wih oher counries.

Tis pooled und, wih conribuions rom he Unied Saes and China, would

differ rom he CERC model where U.S. unds are direced o U.S. researchers and

Chinese unds are direced oward Chinese researchers. Bu he principle o equal

conribuions would be similar. Review commitees comprised o expers rom


27/34


boh donor counries could paricipae in projec selecion in a process similar o

he U.S. Naional Science Foundaion gran review process. I is possible o hink

big in erms o he scale o unding and o consider boh public- and privae-secor

conribuions. In 2013, he scale o financing direced o clean energy in China

was $61.3 billion, down rom 63.8 in 2012; and in he Unied Saes, he scale o

financing he same year was esimaed a $48.4 billion, down rom 53 billion in2012.10I is hereore possible o imagine a unding scale in a leas he hundreds

o millions o dollars range, i no larger.

2. Joint Sino-U.S. climate adaptation and resilience response initiative

A he U.N. Climae Summi in Sepember, Presiden Obama announced ha he

Unied Saes would expand is engagemen in srenghening global resilience o

climae change, and he Penagon released an Adapaion Roadmap in Ocober

ha includes a call or inernaional collaboraion on adapaion aciviies.11Chinais increasingly concerned abou he impac ha climae change will have on he

counry and he surrounding region. U.S.-China collaboraion on climae adap-

aion and resilience ha links he securiy communiies and builds on exising

miliary-miliary cooperaion mechanisms ha address disaser response, could be

an imporan opic o grow sraegic rus and cooperaion.

In paricular, he inernaional communiy would likely welcome a join U.S.-China

response eam ha could help build climae resilience in poorer, developing coun-

ries and respond o climae-relaed disasers. Due o Chinas exising on-he-ground

presence in Arica, a ocus on sub-Saharan Arica migh be a good place o sar.

3. Linking domestic implementation of national climate change contributions

Te nex year is likely o see paries o he U.N. Framework Convenion on

Climae Change come orward wih naional climae change conribuions, which

could orm he basis or he nex inernaional climae agreemen. I will cerainly

be imporan or boh he Unied Saes and China o demonsrae ambiious

naional arges and imeables. Bu perhaps even more imporanparicularlyi an inernaional reay is eiher nonbinding or no srongly enorceable a he

inernaional levelwill be domesic laws and regulaions ha will back up

naional pledges. As he Unied Saes and China prepare heir inernaional con-

ribuions, hey would boh benefi rom coordinaion wih respec o domesic

plans or implemenaion. Boh counries ace unique challenges wih implemen-


28/34


aion: China does because i is a vas counry wih ofen weak daa collecion and

enorcemen mechanisms, and he Unied Saes does because i may ace legal

and poliical challenges in implemening regulaions wih execuive orders and

wihou congressional legislaion and suppor.

Coordinaed naional or subnaional policies, such as power plan emissions andefficiency sandards, uel economy sandards or vehicles, or even carbon-rading

or -ax sysems, could be implemened wih similar sringencies and mehodolo-

gies. Tis would no only help o raise confidence in he likelihood ha inerna-

ional conribuions can be me bu also expand he undersanding on boh sides

relaed o he challenges o implemenaion. In addiion, he harmonizaion o

carbon regulaions could avoid poenial rade dispues relaed o carbon leakage

and avoid he need or border ax adjusmens.

Joanna I. Lewis is an associate professor of science, technology and international affairs at

the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

Endnotes

1 Executive Office of the President, The Presidents ClimateAction Plan(The White House, 2013), available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/image/presi-dent27sclimateactionplan.pdf.

2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2013 ProposedCarbon Pollution Standard for New Power Plants,available at http://www2.epa.gov/carbon-pollution-standards/2013-proposed-carbon-pollution-standard-new-power-plants (last accessed October 2014); U.S.

Environmental Protection Agency, Clean Power PlanProposed Rule, available at http://www2.epa.gov/carbon-pollution-standards/clean-power-plan-pro-posed-rule (last accessed October 2014).

3 Wei Li, Chinas Future Energy Developm ent Strategy,Caijing, February 12, 2014, available at http://com-ments.caijing.com.cn/2014-02-12/113904121.html.

4 China.org.cn, China, US Reach 5 Climate Agreements,July 11, 2013, available at http://www.china.org.cn/video/2013-07/11/content_29394590.htm.

5 U.S. Department Of State, U.S.-China Climate ChangeWorking Group Fact Sheet, Press release, July 10,2013, available at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/07/211768.htm; The White House, UnitedStates and China Agree to Work Together on PhaseDown of HFCs, Press release,June 8, 2013, avail-

able at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-of-fice/2013/06/08/united-states-and-china-agree-work-together-phase-down-hfcs.

6 U.S. Department Of State, US-China Joint State-ment on Climate Change, Press release, February15, 2014, available at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/02/221686.htm.

7 Clare Foran, Heres What Major Nations Pledged at theClimate Summit, National Journal, September 23, 2014,available at http://www.nationaljournal.com/energy/here-s-what-major-nations-pledged-at-the-climate-summit-20140923.

8 See for example, U.S.-China Economic and SecurityReview Commission, Hearing: U.S.-China Clean EnergyCooperation: Status, Challenges, and Opportunities, April25, 2014, available at http://www.uscc.gov/Hearings/

hearing-us-china-clean-energy-cooperation-status-challenges-and-opportunities-webcast; Stephanie B.Ohshita and Lynn K. Price, Lessons for Industrial EnergyEfficiency Cooperation with China,China EnvironmentSeries(20112010): 4988.

9 Joanna I. Lewis, Managing Intellectual Property Rightsin Cross-Border Clean Energy Collaboration: The Caseof the U.S.China Clean Energy Research Center, EnergyPolicy69 (2014): 54654.

10 National Science Board, Science and EngineeringIndicators 2014, (Arlington, VA: National ScienceFoundation, 2014), chapter 6, available at http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind14/index.cfm/chapter-6#s5.

11 U.S. Department of Defense, 2014 Climate ChangeAdaptation Roadmap(2014), available at http://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/download/CCARprint.pdf.


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Changing Chinese andU.S. Roles in the GlobalEnergy Market: CarefulManagement NeededBy YU Hongyuan

Te energy secor offers boh challenges and opporuniies or he China-U.S.

relaionship. On he one hand, he wo naions share a common ineres in he

ree flow o crude oil, naural gas, and oher energy commodiies around he

world a sable prices. On he oher hand, hose commodiies are available in

limied supply. As naions pursue hem, compeiive dynamics can emerge and

make cooperaion difficul even on areas where here are common ineress. A

presen, compeiive risks beween he Unied Saes and China are higher han

hey have ever been beore. Ta is because we are in he middle o a major shif

in he global energy marke: he Unied Saes role as a global energy imporer

is decreasing as he Unied Saes becomes energy independen, Chinas role is

growing o surpass ha o he Unied Saes, and here are no good mechanisms

in place o manage ha shif.

Domesically in China, impors are supplying an increasing percenage o Chinas

energy mix58 percen o he oil ha China consumed in 2012 was impored

rom he inernaional marke.1

As Chinas energy demands increase in line wihis growing economy, Chinas share o he global marke is also growing: Chinese

oil impors accouned or 14 percen o he global impor marke in 2013, up rom

6.7 percen in 2005.2As o 2013, China was he hird larges oil imporer in he

world, jus afer he European Union and he Unied Saes.3


30/34


China has launched a diplomaic offensive o ensure is

energy securiy. As a laecomer o he global energy marke,

China ound ha he resource-exracion opporuniies

in reliable counries were already occupied, so Chinese

enerprises had o pursue resources in high-risk counries

such as Iran, Sudan, Myanmar, and oher energy sourcesha he Unied Saes considers unsavory. Ta riggered

American anxiey and dissaisacion o see China coop-

eraing wih counries ha are hosile o he Unied Saes.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) rom Alaska saed ha Chinese

companies are enhusiasic abou making profis wihou

scruple in he counries disgused by he wes, which breaks

geopoliical balance and also alienaes he exising equi-

librium relaionship beween oil-producing counries and

worlds leading oil companies.4

Te Unied Saes believes haChina aims o improve is access

o oil by ignoring issues such as

human righs, nuclear nonpro-

lieraion, and improvemens o

governance in oil-rich naions.

U.S. officials also believe ha

Chinas rapidly increasing oil

demands will lead o a redraw-

ing o he worlds oil poliical

map in he coming decades.

Since China is heavily dependen on energy supplies rom he Middle Easand

since mos o hose supplies come hrough he insecure sea lanesChina mus

also increase is sea power o mainain he saey o is increasing oil and gas

impors. Chinas growing naval srengh will rigger U.S. concerns ha China is

challenging U.S. sea power. From a Chinese perspecive, however, i seems ha

Chinas oil-ransi channels are highly vulnerable o U.S. inervenion.5Afer he

Iraq War, he Unied Saes basically conrolled he oil in he Middle Eas and is

sraegic oupu channels. China impors more han hal o is oil rom he MiddleEasmainly via ankers raveling over long-disance sea rouesand hose ank-

ers mus pass hrough U.S.-conrolled chokepoins such as he Suez Canal, he

Srai o Hormuz, and he Srai o Malacca.6I China-U.S. relaions deeriorae, he

Unied Saes is likely o use is oil hegemony o block Chinas oil impors. Under

exreme cases, China could no ge any oil rom he Middle Eas a all.

0

2

4

6

8

1012

14

16

18

20

UnitedStates

China UnitedStates

China UnitedStates

Chi

2011 2020 2

DE MAN D P R O DU C TI O N IM P O RT S

FIGURE 1

The change in oil imports

In millions of barrels per day

Source: International Energy Agency, "World Engergy Outlook 2012: ExecutiveSummary" (2012), available at http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/

publication/English.pdf.

FIGURE 2

The change global oil import percentage 20052013

Europe

Japan

China

Canada

United States

Other nations

Europe

Japan

China

United Sta

India

Latin Ame

Other Asia

Pacific nat

Other nat

2005 2013

Source: BP, "Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014" (2014), available at http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Ener-

gy-economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2014-full-report.pdf.


31/34


China also sees a U.S. hand in Cenral Asia, is oher major supply cener. Pipeline

projecs rom Cenral Asia provide China wih a relaively sae onshore oil chan-

nel, bu he Unied Saes ofen inervenes in hose dealssuch as Chinas share-

holder projecs wih Kazakhsan and urkmenisanin order o cu off Chinas

oil and gas supplies rom Cenral Asia.7Te Unied Saes has muliple sraegic

objecives in Cenral Asia, including:

Gaining access o energy supplies Supporing cenral Asian counries o gradually ge rid o Russias influence and

hal economic and poliical inegraion wih Russia Conrolling oil pipelines Promoing he Norh Alanic rade Organizaion, or NAOs, easward expan-

sion o squeeze Russias sraegic space o he souh and wes Coninuing o suppress Iranian atemps o achieve a dominae posiion in cen-

ral Asia and he Persian Gul

I appears ha rom he U.S. perspecive, hose objecives are ofen no compaible

wih a growing Chinese energy presence in he region.

Chinese observers also worry ha since he Unied Saes shale gas boom is

reducing is need o impor oil rom Middle Eas, he Unied Saes may ake

acions ha hrow he Middle Eas ino disorder, which would hreaen Chinas

energy securiy.

Suggestions for China-U.S. cooperation

The United Saes and China share common ineress in mainaining he sabiliyo oil-producing counries and criical sea lanes. I is noeworhy ha ensuring

ample supply o oil in he global marke has been pu in one o several U.S. energy

policy prioriies ha could mee he needs o large oil consumers in he world.

Tis provides spacious room or China-U.S. cooperaion on inernaional energy

policy and guaranees he seady supply o oil, which is he bigges converging

poin o heir ineress wih respec o energy issues.

Firs, one opporuniy ha deserves immediae atenion is adjusing he muli-

laeral energy governance sysem o fi he new marke realiy. Te Inernaional

Energy Agency, or IEA, is currenly he mos subsanial and influenial body

or inernaional energy cooperaion. I is he only mulilaeral body ha can

address all aspecs o energy policy and ha mainains srong analyical capabiliy


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and a permanen secrearia. Te problem wih he IEA is ha i does no repre-

sen emerging powers such as China. Te Unied Saes and China should work

ogeher o reorm he IEA and make i more represenaive

Exploring the Frontiers of U.S.-China Strategic Cooperation: Energy and Climate Change

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