Exploring management options for more resilient and efficient

systems

Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA)

September 3-5, 2014Athens, GA

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

Source: Gitz and Meybeck, 2012

Instead of being vulnerable we should increase the capacity to prevent, cope with risks and recover from shocks

Reduce

Reduce1 2 3

of systems

How we can increase resilience

DroughtInsect

breakout

Climate of the Eastern US A. ENSO – El Niño phase

Winter

Summer

El Niño does not run to the calendar year - some events last >> 12months

Above average sea surface temperature (SST) across the eastern tropical Pacific

High influence on Winter and

Spring climate

Climate in the Southeast B. La Niña phase of ENSO

Below than normal sea surface temp. (SST) across the eastern tropical Pacific

Winter

Summer

- Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI): A monthly quantitative index based on six variables of: sea-level pressure, zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, and total cloudiness fraction of the sky.

Climate Forecast – ENSO Indices

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

Precipitation Anomalies (in)1996 - 2013 vs. 1950 - 1995

March April

May July

http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/

ENSO phase Rainfall Differences Tifton Co. South GA

Climate Risk Tool

South GA

North GA

If we know the ENSO impact on climate variables, can we manage the crop based on those differences?

What management practices you will advice farmers to adjust/modify?

http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/

Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat

Management Strategies in the Southeastern USAENSO and Wheat Yield Differences

http://agroclimate.org/tools/County-Yield-Statistics/

AgroClimate Tool

Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat

Management Strategies in the Southeastern USAENSO and Planting Date Related Yield Losses

The highest yield penalties associated with delayed planting could be expected during the La Niña phase (warmer winter) rather than the El Niño , especially for southern counties.

(4 wks later)

Tifton, GA

http://agroclimate.org/tools/Planting-Date-Planner/

Wheat varieties yield of different maturity groups (Early/Late) by ENSO phase

Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat

Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

North GA Central West GA

Under La Niña, early maturity varieties (early heading) had greater yield than late maturity at the Southern locations (Plains, GA) compared with the North (Calhoun, GA).

Under El Niño, late maturity varieties had greater yield than Early maturity at the most Northern locations (Calhoun, GA).

ENSO and Hessian Fly infestation

ENSO phase HF Infestation Differences Yield losses and HF Infestation

Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat

Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

HF infestation was higher duringLa Niña than El Niño with increased occurrence closer to the Coast (Plains site).

Higher infestation for susceptible varieties (compared to resistant) was observed for La Niña, therefore higher yield losses.

Georgia

ENSO and Hessian Fly infestation

ENSO phase HF Infestation Differences

Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat

Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA

HF infestation was higher duringLa Niña than El Niño with increased occurrence closer to the Coast (Plains site).

Georgia

The HFI prediction model was based on:

- Temperature and Precipitation of Aug-Sep (TAug-Sep, PAug-Sep) and Oct-Feb (T Oct-Feb, P Oct-Feb) periods PLUS- Change in wheat area in the preceding year (ΔWA)

HFIPGriffin = 0.012ΔWA + 0.045PAS – 0.017POF – 5.574TAS + 3.139TOF + 112.3

Plains, GA

ENSO phase Rainfall &

Temperature Differences

http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/

Plains, GA

Climate Risk Tool

Adaptation Strategies

http://www.agroclimate.org/seclimate/extension-resources/