EXPLOITING The Agricultural POTENTIAL of Ghana

USING Weather FORECAST

By

Emmanuel D. Eledi

(Regional Director - UER)

‘Report on The Weather Forecasting Project of UER’

Report On The Weather Forecasting Project Of Upper Eest Region Of Ghana

Presentation Format

• Introduction: Background Information on Programme

• Implementation Method

• Status of Implementation

• The Way Forward

The Global Concern On Climate Change

According to Prof. Richard Washington of Oxford University at a workshop in Nairobi,

• Issues of Global concern are:– Understanding current climate variability– Climate prediction, that includes

• Seasonal prediction• Global warming issues

• He mentioned that:

• Concentration of the project was focused on seasonal, weekly and daily weather forecasting to support farming decision making

“The Issue of Seasonal prediction is most crucial to the farmer and Coping with Climate Change and Variability is vital and a Hot Topic for Strategic Research” - Prof. Washington

Exploiting The Agricultural Potential Using Climate Forecast

Workshop Jan 12-23,2009 Wa, UWR

The Climate IssueIntroduction Large parts of Northern Ghana have semi-arid environment

& have High variability of rainfall patterns In Ghana, Seasonal climate outlook & weather forecasts are

available from G-Met but difficult to interpret for farmers to use

The need arises to identify together on-farm climate sensitive systems for decision making by farmers

The program began with seasonal forecasts initially presented to MoFA from Florida to advise farmers on the periods to begin farming activities

Geographical locations of communities were taken for location specific weekly forecasting data to be developed and shared with farmers

WEATHER FORECASTING FOR SUSTAINABLE FARMING: THE EXPERIENCE IN UPPER EAST REGION OF GHANA

Opinion leaders of communities were provided daily forecasters and rain

gauges for data collection and record keeping with the field agents

Management staff were given capacity building to enable them develop the

seasonal calendar along Enso forecast systems and passed to farmers (i.e.

whether El-Nino, La-Nina or Neutral weather system)

The M&E staff of the region and districts developed cropping calendars

using the forecast from the seasonal weather forecasting calendars for

extension transfer to farmers in the region annually

The weekly forecast data indicating dates & quantity of rains were produced

and found useful in decision making on activities by stakeholders

Seasonal forecast developed for 2011 being used is shown below for Bolga,

Navrongo & Bawku.

CLIMATE YEARS MEAN DEVIATION

LA NINO 1212 1030.7 408.7

NEUTRAL 2626 960.9 447.9

EL NINO 1515 986.1 440.9

HISTORY 5151

HOW WELL RAINFALL BEHAVED IN UER IN 2011?HOW WELL RAINFALL BEHAVED IN UER IN 2011?

Neutral Year Likely Rainfall Pattern for (Bolgatanga Municipal, Bongo & Tongo)

PROBABLE RAINFALL PATTERN IN 2011 (BUILSA, PROBABLE RAINFALL PATTERN IN 2011 (BUILSA, NAVRONGO, PAGA)NAVRONGO, PAGA)

Neutral Year Likely Rainfall Pattern for Bawku, Bawku West and Garu Tempane

Informing Cropping Calendar through Weather Informing Cropping Calendar through Weather forecastingforecasting

Bolgatanga/Bongo/Tongo Cropping Guide

Builsa/Navrongo/Paga Cropping GuideBuilsa/Navrongo/Paga Cropping Guide

Informing Cropping Calendar through Weather Informing Cropping Calendar through Weather forecastingforecasting

Cropping Calendar Bawku, Bawku West & Garu TempaneCropping Calendar Bawku, Bawku West & Garu Tempane

Informing Cropping Calendar through Weather Informing Cropping Calendar through Weather forecastingforecasting

Simple tools for daily weather forecasting and monitoring

DAILY FORECASTING TOOLS & MONITORING

Rain Gauge

Measurement of Evaporation Rate

Daily Weather Forecaster-not bigger than a cell phone!

Cell Phone

30-50 km area, 12-24 hr, 70-75% Skilled rainfall forecaster

THE LINKAGE BETWEEN 3-D MODEL

THE LINKAGE BETWEEN 3-D MODEL

& WEATHER FORECASTING

& WEATHER FORECASTING

►Sowing decisions

►Labor hiring (By Day)

►Fertilizer applications

►Field Insecticide application

►Community Resettlement Decisions

►Crop harvest decisions

►Marketing activities

►Post-harvest losses

►Building & Construction activities

►Fishing activities

Linking the forecaster &3-D Model by communities

Making Science & Technology Work for the Poor

Forecaster

THE WAY FORWARD6) Which Way Forward?

– The need to immediately scale up the use of these simple tools in weather forecasting at farmer level in the other northern regions and the whole country that suffer from the vagaries of weather cannot be over emphasised

– Other advanced systems/tools exist (Doppler Radar systems) that can be introduced to cover the whole country and protect our sea and air ports with instant detailed data on weather

– Import and sale of the simple but efficient daily weather forecaster can protect a wide range of stakeholders – farmers, marketers, the construction industry, etc.

– Adoption and mainstreaming the technology countrywide by decision (policy) makers for scaling up into the rest of the country

7) Expansion of training of all extension staff on weather forecasting and use of the gadgets to other Regions

Innovative, simple, local weather monitor and 12-24 hour rainfall forecaster

►24 Hour Pressure trend

►Pictorial displays of approaching rain

►Relative Humidity

►Temperature

►Daily maximum and minimum data

►70-80% forecast accuracy

Forecaster

NEED TO IMPROVE ACCESS TO SIMPLE TOOLS