EXPLANATION Inference to the best explanation, another inductive inference Explanations versus...
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Transcript of EXPLANATION Inference to the best explanation, another inductive inference Explanations versus...
EXPLANATION
Inference to the best explanation, another inductive inference
Explanations versus arguments: Arguments give us reasons to think
something is the case. Plausible or certain premise to uncertain conclusion!
Explanations give us reasons why or how something is the case. Uncertain premise to certain/known/factual conclusion/event
TYPES OF EXPLANATIONS
Procedural (how something is done) Interpretive (why something means
what it does) Functional (how something works or
functions) Theoretical (why something is the way
it is, why something happened)
THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS
The focus of our analysis Pattern of reasoning: from premises about a
state of affairs (what we know to have happened) to a conclusion about why this happened.
Best Explanations: We often have competing, alternate, comparable
theories or explanations. We assess which is the best, most plausible,
most likely to be true.
PATTERN OF INFERENCE
More formally, the pattern: Phenomenon Q E provides the best explanation for Q Therefore, E is probably true
Informal: we do it naturally! When we evaluate whether is does
provide best explanation, we use criteria
PARTS OF EXPLANATION
Explanandum: what is being explained, the phenomenon Q
Explanans: the answer or statement that explains the explanandum
The explanans tries to explain the explanandum by positing or providing a theory
Sometimes requires imagination to formulate the theory
Theories expand our knowledge and enable it further
BEST EXPLANATION
Some basic starting points for determining which of several explanations is best If you formulate a new or novel one and do not
compare it to others, greater likelihood of it being false
If other explanations are just as good as yours, this sheds doubt on yours
If you study and research your explanation, greater likelihood that it will be plausible
OBSERVATION
We often observe our surroundings to determine which of any proposed theories is best
i.e., process of determining why your car won’t start. Battery dead Empty fuel tank Bad starter Vandalized, etc
PROCESS OF ELIMINATION
Using observation to eliminate theories Using background knowledge, if any Notice, we fill in premises to support
why any explanation is best
THEORIES
Used in all academic departments and many areas of life, courts, etc.
Organizing tools to help us understand Constructs, but not arbitrary Theories are inherently open to
revision, refutation and further confirmation
Theories are often causal (science)
SOME EXERCISES
9.2 p. 341 Perhaps first in 9.5
TESTING OR EVALUATING THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS
Why do we need to determine which theory is better?
Minimal requirement: consistency Consistency must be internal and external Non-contradiction, non-opposition External consistency also includes
completeness! It cannot fail to include essential parts of explanandum
THEORY CHOICE, cont.
Minimum requirement cont. Incompleteness not effective when other
explanations are absurd Possibility of infinite number of
explanations (theory is “underdetermined”, evidence does not dictate what theory is best)
Quantity of evidence: a good indicator of which theory is better or best
ADEQUACY
If theory meets consistency requirement, it is eligible for further testing. If not, it can be scrapped! Careful: not refutational
The criteria for adequacy Testability Fruitfulness Scope Simplicity Conservatism
TESTABILITY
Requires that there is some way or method to determine whether theory is true or false.
Do all components of theory have to be testable, or only the whole theory?
Soul theory of personal identity, Plato Theory of witches, moral theory of
disease
TESTABILITY AND PREDICTIONS
Theories are testable when they make prediction of some event or effect or phenomenon other than event to be explained
Sometimes prediction can be a consequence or outcome
If theory does not do this or predicts the obvious, we have reason to doubt it. Novelty!
FRUITFULNESS
Theories are more adequate than others if they predict novel events or phenomenon
Fruitfulness also includes ability to encourage new research or open up new areas of research
Novel predictions: surprising ones! Karl Popper and criteria for genuine scientific
theories Einstein’s theory and its novel predictions: light
around objects appears bent due to curvature of space
SCOPE
How much does the theory explain or predict?
If one theory can explain and predict more than another, that theory is to be preferred over the other.
Explaining more diverse phenomena Newton’s theory explained more than
Aristotle’s, Einstein’s more than Newton’s, etc.
SIMPLICITY
Ockham’s razor and parsimony Theory which makes the fewest assumptions is to
be preferred over others Notice, comparative nature of theory choice. NO
GUARANTEES Conspiracy theories: too many assumptions which
require evidence I.E., creationism: assumes the existence of a
creator. But, simpler in other ways! Ad hoc or auxiliary hypotheses: simplicity is
compromised when these are added to “save” a theory
CONSERVATISM
A theory which contradicts or goes against our established knowledge or beliefs is more likely to be implausible
Background knowledge A warning against novelty! But… Claim: Vitamin C cures cancer! Claim: I have made a perpetual motion
machine, or I have produced cold fusion! Claim: Dowsing or Divining for water works!
SOME CAVEATS FOR CRITERIA
No strict formula. Sometimes one criterion is weighed more than others
Cannot be used to silence or discourage radical departures
Paradigm shift Criteria is not a proof, only a diagnostic
tool, requiring good judgement Non-subjective: judgement vs taste!
TEST OR T.E.S.T.
A fully assessment of which explanations is the best
At the end of the test, we must state which theory is the most plausible, the best…
A procedure that requires all the tools of critical thinking that we have examined
TEST, cont.
Step 1: State the theory and check for consistency
Step 2: Assess the evidence, either presented or not
Step 3: Scrutinize alternative theories. Step 4: Test the theory using criteria of
adequacy
STEP ONE
State theory in a clear, concise fashion Apply consistency test (is it eligible for
further assessment?)
STEP TWO
Evidence? What evidence is given? Is it reliable, does it commit fallacies, is the source credible, does it suffer from a causal confusion, is it consistent with background knowledge or specialized knowledge?
Is there evidence disconfirming the theory?
STEP THREE
Scrutinize alternative theories. Might have to formulate or look for
them (thinking outside box) Goes against our grain, our tendency
to identify with a favorite theory Using alternative theories for applying
criteria. If we miss this, we cannot take last step!!
STEP FOUR
Complete test by applying criteria of adequacy. Remember to apply all 5.
Examples on pages 364-68 are instances of response examples, how to apply the full test
Problem of background knowledge! How much can you be expected to know? Yardstick: what would you need to know to be
able to judge evidence or fully apply adequacy criteria.