Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of...
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![Page 1: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting
Andrew WoodDennis Lettenmaier
University of Washington
Arun KumarNCEP/EMC/CMB
presented:
JISAO weekly seminarSeattle, WA Nov 13, 2001
![Page 2: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Overview
Research Objective:
To produce monthly to seasonal snowpack, streamflow, runoff & soil moisture forecasts for continental scale river basins
Underlying rationale/motivation:
1.Global numerical weather prediction / climate models (e.g. GSM) take advantage of SST – atmosphere teleconnections
2.Hydrologic models add soil-moisture – streamflow influence (persistence)
![Page 3: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Topics Today
1. Approach2. Columbia River basin (summer 2001) application3. East Coast (summer 2000) application4. Related work5. Comments
![Page 4: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
climate model forecastmeteorological outputs
• ~1.9 degree resolution (T62)• monthly total P, avg T
Use 3 step approach: 1) statistical bias correction 2) downscaling3) hydrologic simulation
General Approach
hydrologic model inputs
streamflow, soil moisture,snowpack,runoff• 1/8-1/4 degree resolution
• daily P, Tmin, Tmax
![Page 5: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Models: Global Spectral Model (GSM) ensemble forecasts from NCEP/EMC
• forecast ensembles available near beginning of each month, extend 6 months beginning in following month
• each month:• 210 ensemble members define GSM climatology for
monthly Ptot & Tavg• 20 ensemble members define GSM forecast
![Page 6: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Models: VIC Hydrologic Model
![Page 7: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
domain slide
Example Flow Routing Network
![Page 8: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
One Way Coupling of GSM and VIC models
a) bias correction: climate model climatology observed climatologyb) spatial interpolation:
GSM (1.8-1.9 deg.) VIC (1/8 deg)c) temporal disaggregation (via resampling of observed patterns):
monthly daily
a. b. c.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1Probability
Te
mp
era
ture
TGSM
TOBS
![Page 9: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
GSM Regional Bias:a spatial example
Bias is removed at the monthly GSM-scale from the meteorological forecasts
(so 3rd column ~= 1st column)
![Page 10: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
GSM Regional Bias:
one cell example
For sample cell located over Ohio River basin, biases in monthly Ptot & Tavg are significant!
![Page 11: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
GSM Regional Bias:
one cell example
![Page 12: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Bias: Developing a Correction
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
20 member forecast ensemble
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
from 1979 SSTsfrom 1980 SSTs
from 1981 SSTs
from 1999 SSTs
from current SSTs
(21 sets)10 member climatology ensembles
![Page 13: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Bias: Developing a Correction
10
15
20
25
30
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
percentile (wrt 1979-99)
deg
C
GSM
Observed
July Tavg, for 1 GSM cell
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
1979 SSTsetc.
from 1999SSTs
10 member climatology ens.
* for each month, each GSM grid cell and variable
*
![Page 14: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Bias: Applying a Correction
Note: we apply correction to both forecast ensembleand climatology ensemble itself, for later use
![Page 15: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Bias-Correction: Spatial Perspective
shown1 month,
1 variable (T),1 ens-member
raw GSM output
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
bias-corrected
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
![Page 16: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Bias: Spatial Perspectiveexpress as anomaly
-8
-4
0
4
8
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
bias-corrected
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
![Page 17: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Downscaling: step 1 is interpolation(bias corrected) anomaly anomaly at VIC scale
-8
-4
0
4
8
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-8
-4
0
4
8
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
![Page 18: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Downscaling: step 2 adds spatial VIC-scale variability to smooth anomaly field
mean fields
anomaly
note:month m, m = 1-6ens e, e = 1-20
VIC-scale monthly forecast
![Page 19: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon1
Mon2
Mon3
Mon4
Mon5
Mon6
de
g C
Lastly, temporal disaggregation…
VIC-scale monthly forecast
![Page 20: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Lastly, temporal disaggregation…
VIC-scale monthly forecast
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon1
Mon2
Mon3
Mon4
Mon5
Mon6
deg
C
![Page 21: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Downscaling Test
1. Start with GSM-scale monthly observed met data for 21 years
2. Downscale into a daily VIC-scale timeseries
3. Force hydrology model to produce streamflow
4. Is observed streamflow reproduced?
![Page 22: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
GSM forecast and climatology ensembles
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
20 member forecast ensemble
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
from 1979 SSTsfrom 1980 SSTs
from 1981 SSTs
from 1999 SSTs
from current SSTs
(21 sets)10 member climatology ensembles
![Page 23: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
GSM climatology: use #2
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
sample: 21 member climatology ensemble
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
from 1979 SSTsetc.
from 1999SSTs
10 member climatology ens. (21 sets)
![Page 24: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
GSM climatology: use #2
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
sample: 21 member climatology ensemble
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
from 1979 SSTsetc.
from 1999SSTs
10 member climatology ens. (21 sets)
-5
5
15
25
35
Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6
deg
C
20 member forecast ens.
![Page 25: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Simulations
Forecast Productsstreamflow soil moisture
runoffsnowpack
VIC model spin-upVIC forecast ensemble
climate forecast
information (from GSM)
VIC climatology ensemble
1-2 years back start of month 0 end of month 6
NCDC met. station obs. up to
2-4 months from
current
LDAS/other met.
forcings for remaining
spin-up
data sources
A B C
![Page 26: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Columbia River Application
![Page 27: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
CRB
Initial Conditions
late-May SWE &water balance
![Page 28: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
CRB
Initial Conditions
(percentiles)
![Page 29: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
CRB: May forecastobservedforecast
forecastmedians
![Page 30: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
CRB: May forecast
hindcast“observed”
forecast
forecast medians
![Page 31: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
CRB May forecasthindcast “observed”forecast
forecastmedians
![Page 32: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
CRB May forecast
basin avg. soil moisture
![Page 33: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
CRB May Forecast
Streamflow
![Page 34: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Forecasts of Columbia River Flow @ The Dalles, 2001
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
cfs
Mar fcast
Mar clim
Apr fcast
Apr clim
May fcast
May clim
Hindcast
CRB: sequential streamflow forecasts
hindcast
climatologies
forecasts
ensemble medians
![Page 35: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
CRBMay Forecast
cumulative flow averages
forecastmedians
![Page 36: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
East Coast Application
![Page 37: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Model forecasting domain
![Page 38: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
East Coast spin-up period
![Page 39: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
East Coast spin-up period
![Page 40: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
East Coast spin-up period
![Page 41: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
East Coast spin-up period
![Page 42: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
East Coast hindcast
![Page 43: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
East Coast hindcast
![Page 44: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
East Coast hindcast
![Page 45: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
East Coast hindcast
![Page 46: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
East Coast
Apr ’00 forecast for May-Jun-Jul
forecast median shown as percentile of climatology ensemble
![Page 47: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
East Coast
May ’00 forecast for Jun-Jul-Aug
![Page 48: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
East Coast
Jun ’00 forecast for Jul-Aug-Sep
![Page 49: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
![Page 50: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
ENSO extreme pseudo-forecast evaluation
perfect-SST forecasts from Nov. 97
![Page 51: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Related Applications
![Page 52: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Related: Yakima R. Mesocale Model Downscaling (RCM @ ½ to VIC @ 1/8)
![Page 53: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Related:
PCM-based climate change scenarios
![Page 54: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Related:
PCM-based climate change scenarios
![Page 55: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Related:
PCM-based climate change scenarios
![Page 56: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Related:PCM-based climate change scenarios
![Page 57: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Summary Comments climate-hydrology forecast model system has potential
can also try other ensemble forecast models/methods can also try other bias-correction/downscaling approaches
critical needs access to quality met data during spinup period ability to demonstrate / assess skill quantitatively
perfect-SST (“AMIP-type”) hindcast ensembles a start, but really need a long term retrospective forecast set
![Page 58: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Summary Comments climate-hydrology forecast model system has potential
can also try other ensemble forecast models/methods can also try other bias-correction/downscaling approaches
critical needs access to quality met data during spinup period ability to demonstrate / assess skill quantitatively
perfect-SST (“AMIP-type”) hindcast ensembles a start, but really need a long term retrospective forecast set
2 of me: one for research one for “operations”
![Page 59: Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Andrew Wood Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington Arun Kumar NCEP/EMC/CMB presented: JISAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062221/56649d3f5503460f94a18df1/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
END