Experience Trap

8/9/2019 Experience Trap

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HBR- FEBRUARY 2008HBR- FEBRUARY 2008

PRESENTATION TIMEPRESENTATION TIME

THANTHAN

Q & AQ & A

FOR Better LEARNINGFOR Better LEARNING

ByBy

ATIF IMSCIENCESATIF IMSCIENCES

0332912591603329125916


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HBR- FEBRUARY 2008HBR- FEBRUARY 2008

PRESENTATIONPRESENTATION

TIME:10MINTIME:10MIN

THANTHAN

Q & AQ & AFor better learningFor better learning


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Research initiative is on Experience based learning inResearch initiative is on Experience based learning in

complex environmentcomplex environment

Managers stopped learning from experience.Managers stopped learning from experience.

Alex is expert of software world.Alex is expert of software world.

Made classical version of software for NASA, also includedMade classical version of software for NASA, also includedas part of research participant.as part of research participant.

Decision making of managers is examined in variety ofDecision making of managers is examined in variety of

contexts.contexts. A research done on Experience based learningA research done on Experience based learning


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EXPERIMENT 1:EXPERIMENT 1: Alex is taken as in charge for computer basedAlex is taken as in charge for computer based

software of simulation, which has to control,software of simulation, which has to control,monitor, and manage in terms of cost and time.monitor, and manage in terms of cost and time. Alex decisions were representative of decision ofAlex decisions were representative of decision of

his whole group selected.his whole group selected.

Group of 4 engineers of Alex hit towers of successGroup of 4 engineers of Alex hit towers of successin developmental work but left behind in otherin developmental work but left behind in othertasks because group founded less to tasks.tasks because group founded less to tasks.

Small group cant grab all tasks, consequentlySmall group cant grab all tasks, consequently

sown seeds of uncontrollable problems, Alexsown seeds of uncontrollable problems, Alexexperience burned out.experience burned out. Further hiring in midst of project was the optionFurther hiring in midst of project was the option

with Alex but than problem countered was thewith Alex but than problem countered was theassimilation of new entrants.assimilation of new entrants.


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Project got failed because of Alex negligence inProject got failed because of Alex negligence inearly phases of project which cherishedearly phases of project which cherishedsnowballing software errors.snowballing software errors.

Project completed defectively and late thanProject completed defectively and late thanschedule.schedule.

Simulation game played with Alex and all otherSimulation game played with Alex and all otherparticipants of research when finally asked aboutparticipants of research when finally asked aboutthe fault they repliedthe fault they replied

Researcher founded that only few of managersResearcher founded that only few of managerslearned from consequences of their past decisionslearned from consequences of their past decisions

and want to change their approach as well.and want to change their approach as well.

Thus learning from real life past projects notThus learning from real life past projects notutilized which is break down of learning.utilized which is break down of learning.


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WHY BREAKDOWN OF LEARNINGWHY BREAKDOWN OF LEARNING

Decision is based on pre-existing stock ofDecision is based on pre-existing stock of

knowledge calledknowledge called MENTAL MODELMENTAL MODEL..

Consist on assumptions about cause & effectConsist on assumptions about cause & effectrelationships with the environment.relationships with the environment.

On basis of consequences of decisions people learnsOn basis of consequences of decisions people learns

new facts and make new discoveries aboutnew facts and make new discoveries about

environmental relationships.environmental relationships. Discoveries which can be generalized to other areDiscoveries which can be generalized to other are

considered appropriate according toconsidered appropriate according to Mental Model.Mental Model.

In short we have Hypothesisabout relationshipsIn short we have Hypothesisabout relationships

b/w cause and effects on basis of action and resultb/w cause and effects on basis of action and result

we interpret them BUT things are not that simple inwe interpret them BUT things are not that simple in

complex environment.complex environment.

In complicated real world there are three types ofIn complicated real world there are three types of

complications which break the Learning cycle.complications which break the Learning cycle.


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1. TIME LAG:1. TIME LAG: Delay b/w cause and effect make it difficult to link themDelay b/w cause and effect make it difficult to link them Length of lag even disturbed the relationship b/w cause andLength of lag even disturbed the relationship b/w cause and

effect.effect. EXP 2:EXP 2: Participants were given simulated game to manage mediumParticipants were given simulated game to manage medium

size satellite software, which grew in size with productsize satellite software, which grew in size with productrequirement addition.requirement addition.

Each participant has to opt for 1 out of 4 operatingEach participant has to opt for 1 out of 4 operatingenvironment, which varies on basis ofenvironment, which varies on basis of

1. Lag of hiring decision & Arrival of members1. Lag of hiring decision & Arrival of members2. Lag of Arrival & Assimilation2. Lag of Arrival & Assimilation

Participants having higher lag were in more problems andParticipants having higher lag were in more problems andcountered more faults as compare to participants having lesscountered more faults as compare to participants having lesstime lag.time lag.

In post game debriefing the participants decided that lateIn post game debriefing the participants decided that latehiring countered the problem.hiring countered the problem.

Even they mentioned for provision of other options likeEven they mentioned for provision of other options likeextending deadlines, zeroing few tasks etc. BUT INextending deadlines, zeroing few tasks etc. BUT IN

Follow up experiment the hiring done late again in long timeFollow up experiment the hiring done late again in long timeLAGS project which means that LAGS project which means that IF PEOPLE HAVE THEIF PEOPLE HAVE THE

ACQUIRED KNOWLEDGE THEY DID NOT NECESSARUILYACQUIRED KNOWLEDGE THEY DID NOT NECESSARUILYACT ON ITACT ON IT


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2. FALLIBLE ESTIMATES:2. FALLIBLE ESTIMATES: Initial estimates for projects shape the trajectory ofInitial estimates for projects shape the trajectory of

decisions that manger take during project life cycle.decisions that manger take during project life cycle. Estimate of productivity of team members influenceEstimate of productivity of team members influence

decisions about size of team, which in return affect thedecisions about size of team, which in return affect theteams actual output.teams actual output. EXP 3:EXP 3: Conducted to find out manager initial estimateConducted to find out manager initial estimate

decisions about productivity and than periodicallydecisions about productivity and than periodically

actual team productivity.actual team productivity. Each manager has to select 1 out 3 initial estimates.Each manager has to select 1 out 3 initial estimates.

1.Low 2.medium 3.high1.Low 2.medium 3.high And than having 3 chances during report for refiningAnd than having 3 chances during report for refining

his productivity report.his productivity report. a.5month(designing) b.10months(coding) c.15 monthsa.5month(designing) b.10months(coding) c.15 months

(end coding)(end coding) To find out his productivity estimate changes or not.To find out his productivity estimate changes or not.


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3. INITIAL GOAL BIAS:3. INITIAL GOAL BIAS:

Managers begin with set of goals related to cost and time.Managers begin with set of goals related to cost and time.

Mostly projects encountered with unexpected which embarks for a change inMostly projects encountered with unexpected which embarks for a change ininitially settled cost and time restraints.initially settled cost and time restraints.

Do manager make amendments for demand of change or just goes on evenDo manager make amendments for demand of change or just goes on even

wrong goes on, again researcher did experimentwrong goes on, again researcher did experiment EXP 4:EXP 4:

Two groups to manage a projectTwo groups to manage a project

1. Cost group (994 personscomplete in schedule of 272 days).1. Cost group (994 personscomplete in schedule of 272 days).

2. Quality assurance group. (with minimum defects)2. Quality assurance group. (with minimum defects)

Both groups in midst journey got unexpected and unattainable.Both groups in midst journey got unexpected and unattainable.

Neither group readjusted the target and got failed.Neither group readjusted the target and got failed. Cost group got grab on cost but made schedule very late.Cost group got grab on cost but made schedule very late.

Quality group made less defects but at the cost of sacrifice of huge cost.Quality group made less defects but at the cost of sacrifice of huge cost.

A manager at time goes on even if wrong goes on.A manager at time goes on even if wrong goes on.

They decide, even having experience, on basis of MENTAL MODEL settled byThey decide, even having experience, on basis of MENTAL MODEL settled by

them during non-experience reign.them during non-experience reign.


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IMPLICATIONSIMPLICATIONS Assigning complex project to impressive,Assigning complex project to impressive,

veteran, and experienced manager at timesveteran, and experienced manager at times

cant perform desirably if manager is goingcant perform desirably if manager is going

with mental model.with mental model.

Expert appointment means creatingExpert appointment means creating

expectations of negligible failure but thats notexpectations of negligible failure but thats not

a reality.a reality.

FIXING LEARNING CYCLE PROBLEMSFIXING LEARNING CYCLE PROBLEMS


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FIXING LEARNING CYCLE PROBLEMSFIXING LEARNING CYCLE PROBLEMS

COGINATIVE FEED BACKCOGINATIVE FEED BACK Feed back which provides insight into the relationships among factors inFeed back which provides insight into the relationships among factors in

project management.project management.

MODEL-BASED DECISION TOOLS AND GUIDELINESMODEL-BASED DECISION TOOLS AND GUIDELINES Tools or systems for supporting decision making of manager on basis ofTools or systems for supporting decision making of manager on basis ofpast problems and productivity analysis for prediction of prevailingpast problems and productivity analysis for prediction of prevailingproblems and estimation of productivity.problems and estimation of productivity.

CALIBRATE FORECASTING TOOLS TO PROJECTCALIBRATE FORECASTING TOOLS TO PROJECT Decision supporting tools should calibrate to specific project context.Decision supporting tools should calibrate to specific project context.

SET GOALS FOR BEHAVIOR-- NOT TARGETS FOR PERFORMANCESET GOALS FOR BEHAVIOR-- NOT TARGETS FOR PERFORMANCE Manager when comes to know that his performance will be measuredManager when comes to know that his performance will be measuredagainst target settled in beginning than manger dont care for cost andagainst target settled in beginning than manger dont care for cost andquality.quality.

In beginning goals setting and target is not appropriate.In beginning goals setting and target is not appropriate. During goal setting organization should first decide on behavior theyDuring goal setting organization should first decide on behavior they

wish to develop and than set goals that encourage such behavior.wish to develop and than set goals that encourage such behavior.

DEVELOPING SIMULATIONDEVELOPING SIMULATION Virtual environment to managers should be provided and trained beforeVirtual environment to managers should be provided and trained before

letting them to project.letting them to project. Process is for manager learning how to learn and apply past learningProcess is for manager learning how to learn and apply past learning


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Simulation

ASSIMILATION

SNOWBOLLING

ERRORS

BREAKDOWN

OF LEARNING

MENTAL

MODEL

TIME LAG

ACQUIRED KNOWLEDGE

PRODUCTIVITY

COGNITIVE FEED BACK

Experience Trap

Documents

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