Experian State of the Automotive Finance Market

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Experian Automotive: Gain insights into how the latest industry developments can impact your automotive lending business.

Transcript of Experian State of the Automotive Finance Market

  • 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the Experian marks used herein are trademarks or registered trademarks

    of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners.

    No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian.

    Experian Public.

    Automotive Market Update

    Melinda Zabritski Senior Director | Experian Automotive

  • 2 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

    Discussion points

    Whats on the road

    Market share and registrations

    Finance and delinquency

    Originations and payment trends

  • 3 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

    Vehicles in Operation

    Whats on the road today?

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    Whats on the road today?

    Vehicles in

    operation

    2013

    246.1 million

    Vehicles in

    operation

    2012

    247 million

    Scrapped

    vehicles

    16.2 million

    Carryover

    New vehicle sales

    15.3 million

    Used vehicle sales

    39.1 million

    VIO additions/deletions: 31.5 million (12.8%) (scrapped + new sales)

    VIO total changes: 70.6 million (28.7%) (used sales + scrappage + new sales)

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

  • 5 2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

    VIO by model year

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    201

    5

    201

    3

    201

    1

    200

    9

    20

    07

    200

    5

    200

    3

    200

    1

    199

    9

    199

    7

    199

    5

    19

    93

    199

    1

    198

    9

    198

    7

    198

    5

    198

    3

    198

    1

    19

    79

    197

    7

    197

    5

    197

    3

    197

    1

    196

    9

    196

    7

    Mil

    lio

    ns

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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    VIO by model year

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    201

    5

    201

    3

    201

    1

    200

    9

    20

    07

    200

    5

    200

    3

    200

    1

    199

    9

    199

    7

    199

    5

    19

    93

    199

    1

    198

    9

    198

    7

    198

    5

    198

    3

    198

    1

    19

    79

    197

    7

    197

    5

    197

    3

    197

    1

    196

    9

    196

    7

    Mil

    lio

    ns

    98 million vehicles

    within sweet spot (MY2002 2008)

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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    VIO by model year

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    201

    5

    201

    3

    201

    1

    200

    9

    20

    07

    200

    5

    200

    3

    200

    1

    199

    9

    199

    7

    199

    5

    19

    93

    199

    1

    198

    9

    198

    7

    198

    5

    198

    3

    198

    1

    19

    79

    197

    7

    197

    5

    197

    3

    197

    1

    196

    9

    196

    7

    Mil

    lio

    ns

    Shrinking sweet spot in the

    coming year

    (-4.2 million to 93.8 million)

    plus estimated 1 million scrap

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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    Average age of vehicles on the road today

    9.5 9.6 9.9

    10.2 10.4 10.4

    6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.4

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013

    Average Age 15-Year Rolling Age

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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    Vehicle registration

    and market share

    What metal is moving?

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    Annual vehicle registrations

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Mil

    lio

    ns

    New Used

    22% 25% 27% 24% 28%

    47.4 51.5

    55.1

    49.5 53.6

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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    Census regions

    West Region

    South Region

    Northeast

    Region

    Midwest Region

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    Total (new and used) registrations by Census region

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Millio

    ns

    Midwest Region Northeast Region South Region West Region

    4.4%

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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    New and used registrations by region (millions)

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Northeast region

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    South region

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    West region

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Midwest region

    19.9% 21.1% 24.4% 25.1%

    New Used

    23.1% 27.8% 29.3% 32.6% 33.4% 30.8%

    20.6% 21.8% 26.4% 28.0% 23.2% 22.1% 24.2% 27.7% 28.8% 25.6%

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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    Top new registrations by segment

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    1800

    2000

    Th

    ou

    sa

    nd

    s

    2012 2013

    30.6% 30.0%

    138,000 more Alt Power

    registrations in 2013

    than prior year

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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    Winners and losers by year-over-year registration change

    0 100000 200000 300000

    Pickup - Full Sized

    CUV - Entry Level

    SUV - Lower Mid Range

    Alt Power

    Small Car - Econ

    CUV - Premium

    CUV - Mid Range

    Mid Range Car - Std

    Upscale - Near Luxury

    Upscale - Luxury

    Winners

    -60000 -40000 -20000 0

    Losers

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

    Sport Car Ultra Luxury

    Small Car Budget

    Upscale Premium

    Traditional Car

    Van Mini

    Sport Car Touring

    Pickup Small

    Mid Range Car Premium

    SUV Entry Level

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    Top and bottom states for hybrid registrations (by share of state registrations)

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    CA OR DC WA HI VA NC MD VT AZ

    Top-10 hybrid states

    0%

    1%

    1%

    2%

    2%

    3%

    MIMSMOSDOKWVWYLAAKND

    Bottom-10 hybrid states

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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    Import vs. domestic new registrations

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Midwest region

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Northeast region

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    South region

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    West region Import Domestic

    60.5% 61.5% 62.7% 60.9% 62.0% 35.8% 36.2% 40.5% 38.5% 39.5%

    37.1% 37.7% 39.9% 37.6% 38.4% 48.0% 48.8% 49.1% 47.6% 48.0%

    Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2013 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

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    Who is down (bps)?

    Kia -42

    VW -32

    Hyundai -22

    Toyota -14

    GM -10

    Manufacturer market share (Ranking based on 2013 share)

    GM 18.0%

    Ford 15.2%

    Toyota 14.5%

    Chrysler 11.3%

    Honda 9.9%

    Nissan