Expecting the unexpected: The relevance of old floods to modern hydrology
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Transcript of Expecting the unexpected: The relevance of old floods to modern hydrology
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THE RELEVANCE OF OLD FLOODS
TO MODERN HYDROLOGY
Geographisches Institut | Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz | May 18, 2017
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HOW MUCH TIME IS NEEDED
TO TRULY KNOW A RIVER?
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THE RHINE IN MAINZ
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Source: Fredrik Von Erichsen/AFP/Ge!y Images
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THE MISSISSIPPI IN MINNEAPOLIS
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THE MISSISSIPPI DURING THE 1988 DROUGHT
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WINNIPEG, CANADA
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THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
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THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
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Source: Morningstarphoto
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0.5 METRES PER KILOMETER
THE RHINE THE RED0.08 METRES PER KILOMETER
STREAM GRADIENT
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LAKE AGASSIZ
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1950
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DURING EXTREME CASES, THE FLOOD ZONE OF THE RED RIVER CAN EXTEND 40 KM WIDE.
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“ ”BACK IN 1997, THE WATER SPILLED ONTO THE FLAT PRAIRIE
LIKE AN OPEN BOTTLE OF CHOCOLATE MILK
THAT HAD TIPPED OVER ON THE KITCHEN TABLE.
Roy MacGregor The Globe and Mail, August 7, 2015
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Source: Greg Brooks
1997
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River diversion
Main channel
Source: Dr. Greg Brooks, Geological Survey of Canada
IN THE 1960s, WINNIPEG BUILT A 47-KM LONG DIVERSION CHANNEL THAT DIVERTS RED RIVER AROUND THE CITY.
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GRAND FORKS, NORTH DAKOTA
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THE 1997 RED RIVER FLOOD (AND FIRE) CAUSED MORE THAN $3.5 BILLION IN DAMAGES.
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WINNIPEG GRAND FORKS
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RIVER MEMORY
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FLOODS — BY THEIR NATURE — ARE RARE
EVENTS.
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EVALUATE VULNERABILITY
JUDGE INFRASTRUCTURE
BE MORE AWARE OF NATURE’S POTENTIAL
A DEEP ‘RIVER MEMORY’ IS ESSENTIAL TO:
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2UNCOVERING ANCIENT FLOODS
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1GAUGING FLOOD RISKS
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Source: Roland Schlager/EPA
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Source: AON Benfield, 2016 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report
FLOODS HAVE BEEN THE COSTLIEST PERIL FOR THE PAST 4 CONSECUTIVE YEARS,
AND CAUSED $62B IN LOSSES
GLOBALLY IN 2016.
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Source: Guha-Sapir et al, 2015, Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2015.
OVER THE PAST DECADE FLOODS KILL
NEARLY 7000 PEOPLE WORLDWIDE EACH YEAR.
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“ ”NO ONE IS GOING TO MOVE ST. LOUIS
JUST BECAUSE IT HAPPENS TO BE IN THE RIVER.
David Johnston The Ohio State University
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The Quad Cities River Bandits and the Peoria Chiefs play a baseball game April 20, 2011 inside Modern Woodmen Park in Davenport, Iowa.
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SACRAMENTO RIVER, CALIFORNIA
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WHAT ARE THE RISKS POSED BY FUTURE FLOODS?
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FFA(Flood Frequency Analysis)
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FFACITY PLANNING INSURANCE PRICING MANAGEMENT PLANS
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NEAR TUCSON, ARIZONA
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THE RILLITO RIVER, TUCSON
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“ ”THE 100-YEAR FLOOD HAS COME AND GONE
SO, BY ALL RIGHTS, TUSCONANS SHOULD ENJOY ANOTHER CENTURY
OF GREAT SOUTHWEST WEATHER.Metropolitan Tucson Convention and Visitor’s Bureau
Sent immediately a!er a severe flood
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FREQUENCY
MAGNITUDEsmall large
common
rare
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EMIL GUMBEL (MATHS)
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“ ”FOR THE TWO OR THREE EXTREME FLOODS, THE RETURN PERIODS ARE BASED
ON A FEW OBSERVATIONS, AND CONSEQUENTLY, THE AGREEMENT
IS NOT VERY GOOD.Gumbel, 1941
The Annals of Mathematical Statistics
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An aerial image of downtown shows flood-affected areas June 13, 2008 in Cedar Rapids, Iowa
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EVEN WITH KNOWLEDGE OF A HISTORICAL FLOOD IN 1851, THE 2008 FLOOD IS STILL NEARLY TWICE AS LARGE
AS ANY OTHER FLOOD ON RECORD.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Discharge (m3/s)
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PASSAU, GERMANY
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Source: Christian Gries
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“ ”FOR GREATER FLOODS, THE MAXIMUM KNOWN FLOOD ELEVATION
IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN ITS RECURRENCE INTERVAL. IF THE FUTURE IS LIKE THE PAST,
THE OLDEST AND SIMPLEST IDEA IS THE BEST - A FUTURE FLOOD COULD RISE AT LEAST AS HIGH
AS THE PREVIOUS MAXIMUM.James Eychaner
Lessons from a 500-year Record of Flood Elevations
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2UNCOVERING ANCIENT FLOODS
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WHAT ARE THE RISKS POSED BY FUTURE FLOODS?
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THE FIRST STREAM GAGE IN THE UNITED STATES WAS ESTABLISHED AT EMBUDO, NM IN 1889.
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PALEOFLOOD HYDROLOGY
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VIC BAKER, UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
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“ ”PALEOFLOODS ARE PAST OR ANCIENT FLOODS
THAT OCCURRED WITHOUT BEING RECORDED BY EITHER (1) DIRECT HYDROLOGICAL MEASUREMENT DURING THE COURSE OF OPERATION (KNOWN AS INSTRUMENTAL
OR “SYSTEMATIC” RECORDING) OR (2) OBSERVATION AND/OR DOCUMENTATION
BY NON-HYDROLOGISTS.Victor Baker (2008)
Paleoflood hydrology: Origin, progress, prospects
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COLORADO RIVER
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
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Source: Katie Rampala
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Source: Robert Jarre!, US Geological Survey
SLACKWATER DEPOSITS
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Source: Greenbaum et al., (2014), Water Resources Research.
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44“100-YEAR FLOODS”
IN THE PAST 2100 YRS.
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“ ”OUR RESULTS INDICATE THAT VERY LARGE FLOODS
(A) ARE MUCH MORE FREQUENT THAN INDICATED BY PREVIOUS ESTIMATIONS
WHICH WERE BASED EXCLUSIVELY ON ANALYSIS OF THE MEASURED, SYSTEMATIC GAGE RECORD, AND
(B) THEIR FREQUENCY HAS INCREASED DURING THE LAST 500 YEARS.
Greenbaum et al, 2014 Water Resources Research
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PMF(Probable Maximum Flood)
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THE ESTIMATED DISCHARGES FOR THE TWO LARGEST PALEOFLOODS ARE BIGGER THAN THE PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD FOR THE MOAB VALLEY.
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“ ”WHAT SHOULD BE DONE IF A STIPULATED PMF VALUE
(WHAT IS THEORIZED TO BE THE FLOOD THAT WILL RESULT FROM THE “MOST SEVERE COMBINATION OF CRITICAL
METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS THAT ARE REASONABLY POSSIBLE”)
IS DISCOVERED TO BE CONTRARY TO WHAT ACTUALLY EXISTS IN NATURE?
Greenbaum et al, 2014 Water Resources Research
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Source: Flickr\Liren Chen
THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
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WINNIPEG GRAND FORKS
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GRAND FORKS
1872
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WINNIPEG
1812
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FORT GARRY, HUDSON’S BAY COMPANY
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MAY 3 1826
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THE RIVER ROSE SIX FEET LAST NIGHT PERPENDICULARLY ,
SEVERAL TENTS ARE NOW PITCHED UPON THE MOST ELEVATED SPOTS:
TERROR IS STRONGLY DEPICTED ON EVERY COUNTENANCE.
“ ”
David Jones Journal May 1826
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MAY 5 1826
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THE RIVER OVERFLOWED ITS BANKS
EVERY WHERE, AND CARRIED THE ICE WITH GREAT VELOCITY TO A GREATER DISTANCE FROM ITS COURSE,
THAN HAD EVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE BY THE OLDEST INHABITANTS.
“ ”
Red River Journal May 1826
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MAY 16 1826
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THE WHOLE FACE OF THE COUNTRY, BOTH BELOW AND ABOVE OUR ENCAMPMENT
IS COVERED WITH WATER, AND IN THIS WINDY WEATHER, LOOKS LIKE
AN IMMENSE LAKE IN A STORM.
“ ”Red River Journal
May 1826
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SIR SANFORD FLEMING
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THE LARGEST FLOODS ARE KNOWN FROM HISTORICAL ACCOUNTS AND POST HOC SURVEYS OF LOCAL ELDERS.
Source: Manitoba Conservation and Water Stewardship
0
60,000
120,000
180,000
240,000
2006 1996 1979 1950 2011 1861 2009 1997 1852 1826
discharge (cfs)
historical reports river gauges
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1950
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Source: Greg Brooks
1997
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QUERCUS
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√
24
OAK TREE RINGS (NORMAL ANATOMY)
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91Source: St. George and Nielsen, The Holocene, 2003
1826
19
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700-YR FLOOD
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… ALTHOUGH THE 1826 FLOOD DEVASTATED THE FLEDGLING
RED RIVER SETTLEMENT, IT ALSO LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SUPERIOR LEVEL OF FLOOD PROTECTION
FOR MODERN WINNIPEG…
“ ”
St. George and Rannie Canadian Water Resources Journal, 2003
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HOW MUCH TIME IS NEEDED
TO TRULY KNOW A RIVER?
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Source: Fredrik Von Erichsen/AFP/Ge!y Images
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“ ”(RHENUS) FLUVIUS GALLIAE QUI GERMANOS A GALLIA DIVIDIT. (THE RHINE IS A) RIVER OF GAUL, WHICH DIVIDES
THE GERMANIC PEOPLE FROM GAUL.Maurus Servius Honoratus
Commentary on the Aeneid of Vergil 4th Century CE
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EVALUATE VULNERABILITY
JUDGE INFRASTRUCTURE
BE MORE AWARE OF NATURE’S POTENTIAL
A DEEP ‘RIVER MEMORY’ IS ESSENTIAL TO:
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VIC BAKER, UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
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THE HISTORY OF PAST FLOODS, NOT THE HISTORICAL IDEALIZATION OF THEIR FUTURE POSSIBILITIES,
IS THE UNDERSTANDABLE BASIS UPON WHICH PEOPLE
MAY BE GUIDED TO EFFECTIVE ACTION.
“ ”
Baker et al., 2002 The Scientific and Societal Value of Paleoflood Research
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MANITOBA MUSEUM
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103Source: St. George and Nielsen, The Holocene, 2003
1826
19
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MANITOBA MUSEUM
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“ ”Believe me, you will find more lessons in the woods than in books. Trees and stones will teach you what you cannot learn from masters.ST. BERNARD OF CLAIRVAUX 1090 - 1153 CE
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@sco!stgeorge