EXIT POLL OF AMERICAN VOTERS IN ISRAEL...EXIT POLL OF AMERICAN VOTERS IN ISRAEL 2008 Presidential...
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EXIT POLL OF AMERICAN VOTERS IN ISRAEL 2008 Presidential Election 30 October 2008 Jerusalem
Transcript of EXIT POLL OF AMERICAN VOTERS IN ISRAEL...EXIT POLL OF AMERICAN VOTERS IN ISRAEL 2008 Presidential...
EXIT POLL OF AMERICAN VOTERS
IN ISRAELIN ISRAEL
2008 Presidential Election
30 October 2008
Jerusalem
Key Findings• Overwhelming landslide support for McCain: 3 to 1
• Significant cross-over of registered DEMOCRATS
• Majority of voters have UNFAVORABLE impression of Obama
• McCain viewed as far more capable to handle challenges
– Even among OBAMA voters
• Large number of 1st time voters: 31%• Large number of 1 time voters: 31%
• High turnout of young voters: 18-34
• Correlation between religious observance and voting pattern
• Foreign policy main reason for choosing candidate
• Voters very concerned personally with Iran
• Voters strongly agree that a nuclear Iran threatens the U.S.
Methodology
• 817 respondents - “absentee ballot voters”
• 22 question survey
• + / - 3.5% margin of error
• “Exit Poll” was conducted
– Tel Aviv (Dancing Camel) on Sunday
– Jerusalem (YU Seminary) on Monday
– Jerusalem (OU Center) on Tuesday
– Online among 1700 VFI assisted voters
• About 45,000 Americans requested absentee ballots
– 7k – 10k processed through VFI
Who Did You Vote For?
OBAMA
24%
MCCAIN
76%
Are you….
23
49
REPUBLICAN
IND/NO PARTY
28
23
DEMOCRAT
REPUBLICAN
Vote by Party Affiliation
TOTALIND/NOT
REG
McCAIN 76% 46% 98% 79%McCAIN 76% 46% 98% 79%
OBAMA 24% 54% 2% 21%
Vote by US State
TOTALNY
(26%)
n=216
NJ(13%)
106
CA(10%)
81
FL(7%)
55
PA(5%)
39
MD(5%)
38
IL(4%)
33
MA(4%)
31
MI(3%)
28
OH(3%)
25
McCain 76% 83% 88% 79% 84% 80% 76% 73% 55% 64% 64%
Obama 24% 17% 12% 21% 16% 20% 24% 27% 45% 36% 36%
Battleground States
OBAMA
22%
MCCAINMCCAIN
78%
CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NJ, NC, NM, OH, OR, PA, VA, WI
39% of exit poll respondents are from Battleground States
Regardless of who you voted for, do you have a
FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of….
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NET
McCAIN 80% 19% +61
BIDEN 42% 42% 0BIDEN 42% 42% 0
PALIN 54% 40% +14
OBAMA 32% 67% -35
John McCain
TOTALS
Extremely FAVORABLE 31%
Somewhat FAVORABLE 49% 80%
Somewhat UNFAVORABLE 13%
Extremely UNFAVORABLE 6% 19%
Don’t Know 1%
Barack Obama
TOTALS
Extremely FAVORABLE 15%
Somewhat FAVORABLE 17% 32%
Somewhat UNFAVORABLE 17%
Extremely UNFAVORABLE 50% 67%
Don’t Know 1%
Joe Biden
TOTALS
Extremely FAVORABLE 11%
Somewhat FAVORABLE 31% 42%
Somewhat UNFAVORABLE 20%
Extremely UNFAVORABLE 22% 42%
Don’t Know 16%
Sarah Palin
TOTALS
Extremely FAVORABLE 23%
Somewhat FAVORABLE 31% 54%
Somewhat UNFAVORABLE 16%
Extremely UNFAVORABLE 24% 40%
Don’t Know 6%
“What was the MOST important issue that
influenced your vote?”
57
14
FOREIGN POLICY INCLUDING ISRAEL
ECONOMY
16
6
7
OTHER
WAR IN IRAQ/TERRORISM
IRAN
“Regardless of who you voted for, who do you think is most
capable of handling the challenges facing the United States in..”
ECONOMY
OBAMA
33%33%
McCAIN
67%
“Regardless of who you voted for, who do you think is most
capable of handling the challenges facing the United States in..”
FOREIGN POLICY INCLUDING ISRAEL
OBAMA
19%
McCAIN
81%
“Regardless of who you voted for, who do you think is most
capable of handling the challenges facing the United States in..”
WAR IN IRAQ / TERRORISM
OBAMA
21%
McCAIN
79%
“Regardless of who you voted for, who do you think is most
capable of handling the challenges facing the United States in..”
IRAN
OBAMA
19%
McCAIN
81%
“Regardless of who you voted for, who do you think is most
capable of handling the challenges facing the United States in..”
OBAMA MCCAIN OBAMA MCCAIN
Economy 95% 5% 13% 87%
War in
OBAMA VOTERS MCCAIN VOTERS
War in
Iraq/Terror82% 18% 2% 98%
For. Pol. incl
Israel78% 22% 1% 99%
Iran 76% 24% 2% 98%
“On a scale of 1-10, how concerned are
personally by the threat of a nuclear Iran?”
(1=Not concerned, 5=Somewhat, 10=Extremely)
1 to 4 = 7%
5 to 7= 28%5 to 7= 28%
8 to 10 = 65% 36% chose 10, Extremely Concerned
“There are some that say that if Iran attains nuclear weapons it
will directly, or indirectly, through terrorists getting those
weapons, threaten the safety and security of the United States.
Do you AGREE or DISAGREE with that statement?”
29
STRONGLY SOMEWHAT
93%
647%
AGREE DISAGREE
“How long have you lived in Israel?”
11
25
8 - 14 Years
More than 15 Years
33
19
11
Less than a year
1 -3 Years
4 - 7 Years
Are you…
30
10
4
Student
Permanent Resident
Temp. Work Permit
52
4
30
Israeli Citizen
Tourist
Student
Which best describes you?
I have voted in a US election before 69%
This is the first time I have voted in a US election 31%
Age
65 +
10%
55 - 64
13%18 - 24
37%
45 - 54
13%
35 - 44
11%25 - 34
16%
Vote by Age
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ax
is T
itle
18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 +
OBAMA 25 38 25 23 14 7
McCAIN 75 62 75 77 86 93
0
10
20
30
Gender
MALE
48%FEMALE
52%52%
Vote by Gender
TOTAL MALE FEMALE
McCAIN 76% 80% 73%McCAIN 76% 80% 73%
OBAMA 24% 20% 27%
Vote by Residence
TOTAL
JERUSALEM
(67%)
n=543
TEL AVIV
(9%)
74
McCAIN 76% 76% 51%McCAIN 76% 76% 51%
OBAMA 24% 24% 49%
How do you define yourself religiously?
SECULAR
8%TRADITIONAL
18%
ULTRA-
ORTHODOX
10%
NOT JEWISH
4%
ORTHODOX
60%
Vote by Religious Observance
40
60
80
100
120
Ax
is T
itle
SECULAR TRADITIONAL ORTHODOXULTRA-
ORTHDX
OBAMA 59 45 14 3
McCAIN 41 55 86 97
0
20
40
For Further Info
Dena Lerner
Vote From Israel
Mitchell Barak
KEEVOON
Tel: +972-52-608-9794
www.votefromisrael.org
Tel: +972-52-404-6600
www.keevoon.com
