Existing & Future EarthquakeInformation Systems

Ken Hudnut

USGS, Pasadena

LA Financial Services Sector Regional Recovery Coalition Meeting

17 November 2005, Los Angeles

Southern California is the nation’s most dangerous place for earthquakes - why?

Since Northridge we’ve built state-of-the-art earthquake monitoringArrays. Crucible for technology and earthquake research withinSoCal’s natural laboratory

San Andreas fault 35 mm/yr slip rate;

>70% of plate motion 1685, 1857 eq’s

SoCal is now well ‘wired’

Likely source of most future ‘Big Ones’

Fault physics experiment GPS/INS in near-field ALSM & DG scan ‘net’

Great place to test EEW

Build “zipper” arrays Cholame - Simmler Coachella Valley

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Statewide Monitoring

Urban Strong Motion 2260

Broadband + Strong Motion 480

Short Period + Strong Motion

286

Analog Short Period 2913

Borehole 110

Geotechnical Arrays 60

Buildings 221

Bridges 70

Dams 26

Others 13

The CISN

• Founding Members– OES– USGS– CGS– UC Berkeley– Caltech

• Contributing Members– Other Universities– Regional Utilities– Other Gov. Agencies

• ANSS Member– CA Component of

Nationwide Initiative

http://www.cisn.org

Products since the 1930’s:Magnitude & Location

Seismograms

Epicenter

ShakeMap available for every California earthquake over M3.5 within 10 minutes

What are the effects of the earthquake?

•Should we respond?

•What level of response?

•Loss estimation?

CISN Display – Web-based Products

• URL’s it provides– Waveform GIFs– Focal Mechanisms/ Moment

Tensors– CIIM pages (Felt Reports)– ShakeMap– Station Lists– Tsunami Alerts– Aftershock Forecasts– HAZUS Input files– Engineering Internet Quick

Reports*

Warning of imminent earthquake shaking

Strong shaking travels at 2 miles/sec.

Future - Earthquake Early Warning

GPS network infra-structure forms afoundation for real-timestructural damagedetection and response

• Telemetry upgrades• Algorithm develop-

ment and testing• Implementation

San Andreas - place two betsboth ~120 km from Los Angeles (LA)

Coachella Valleysegment is ~60 kmto San Bernardino

Lone Juniper Ranch and Frazier Park High School

Prototype GPS fault slip sensor; up to 10 Hz

Spans the San Andreas fault near Gorman, California

San Andreas - instrument majorlifeline infrastructure crossings

M 7.9 San Andreas - Krishnan et al. (Caltech)

QuickTime™ and aYUV420 codec decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

M 7.9 San Andreas - Krishnan et al. (Caltech)

QuickTime™ and aYUV420 codec decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

•Satellite

•Telemetry

•Internet

SENSOR PACKAGE

-Accelerometer-Tiltmeter-GPS sensor

REAL-TIME DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

Courtesy ofErdal Safak (USGS)

Factor Building at UCLAPrototype for DamageMap

PI’s Erdal Safak, Monical Kohler and Paul Davis

Initial GPS Data from Factor Building

Summary Slip sensor concept is to augment regional seismic coverage - one part of an

overall EEW system that is primarily using a very different approach

Measure slip directly - don’t need to know anything else - ‘quick & easy’

High risk deployment strategy tuned to rare pay-off in extreme events

Robust earthquake early warning system design obtain more accurate displacement observations new instrumentation for dynamic and static displacement address

deficiencies due to double-integration of accelerometer records

Same R&D effort as for DamageMap instrumentation - now under way with USGS Venture Capital and ANSS start-up funds, but major funding and long-term support for implementation has not yet been identified

Ken Hudnut

Dept. of the Interior - U. S. Geological Survey

525 South Wilson Ave.

Pasadena, CA 91106

626-583-7232

hudnut@usgs.gov