Eximbank of RussiaEximbank of Russia Semiannual update Summary We assign long-term foreign- and...

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CREDIT OPINION29 December 2017

Update

RATINGS

Eximbank of RussiaDomicile Russia

Long Term Debt Not Assigned

Long Term Deposit Ba2

Type LT Bank Deposits - FgnCurr

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Contacts

Lev Dorf [email protected]

Olga Ulyanova +7.495.228.6078VP-Sr Credit [email protected]

Alexandra Yalozina +7.495.228.6109Associate [email protected]

Yaroslav Sovgyra +7.495.228.6076Associate [email protected]

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Eximbank of RussiaSemiannual update

SummaryWe assign long-term foreign- and local-currency deposit ratings of Ba2 to Eximbank of Russia(Roseximbank), which are based on the bank's b2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) andits Adjusted BCA of b2, and take into account our assessment of a very high probability ofsupport from the Government of Russia (Ba1 stable). Roseximbank's ratings benefit from (1)the government's indirect 100% ownership of the bank via the JSC Russian Export Center(REC), which, in turn, is owned by Vnesheconombank (VEB, Ba1 stable, b3 BCA), and itsimportance to the Russian government as a specialized lender, supporting the export sectorsof the Russian economy; and (2) a track record of strong capital and liquidity support beingextended to the bank from the Russian government.

Roseximbank's b2 BCA takes into account (1) the bank's still immature business model as thegovernment's conduit, intended to boost non-energy exports across a wide range of Russianindustries; and (2) the substantial, although rapidly decreasing, levels of problem loans, andhigh concentrations in the loan portfolio, diluted by new lending. More positively, the BCAalso reflects the bank's (1) strong capital buffer, and (2) strong liquidity position and the factthat a large portion of the bank's loan book has been insured and secured by governmentguarantees.

https://www.surveygizmo.com/s3/1133212/Rate-this-research?pubid=PBC_1105112https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Eximbank-of-Russia-credit-rating-824666503?emsk=2&isMaturityNotDebt=0&isWithDrawnIncluded=0&emvalue=Eximbank%20of%20Russiahttps://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Russia-Government-of-credit-rating-600018921?emsk=2&isMaturityNotDebt=0&isWithDrawnIncluded=0&emvalue=Government%20of%20Russiahttps://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Vnesheconombank-credit-rating-328300?emsk=2&isMaturityNotDebt=0&isWithDrawnIncluded=0&emvalue=Vnesheconombank

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Exhibit 1

Rating Scorecard - Key financial ratios

22.9% 35.4%

-5.2%39.9% 51.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Asset Risk:Problem Loans/

Gross Loans

Capital:Tangible Common

Equity/Risk-WeightedAssets

Profitability:Net Income/

Tangible Assets

Funding Structure:Market Funds/

Tangible BankingAssets

Liquid Resources:Liquid Banking

Assets/TangibleBanking Assets

Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS)

Eximbank of Russia (BCA: b2) Median b2-rated banks

So

lve

ncy F

acto

rsL

iqu

idity

Fa

cto

rs

Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

Credit strengths

» Strong capital position, which will remain supported by external capital injections and recovering profitability

» Solid liquidity profile

» Very strong support from the Russian government

Credit challenges

» Sizable amount of legacy problem loans, which may require additional provisioning

» High reliance on market funding

» Low business diversification and high concentration in its loan book

OutlookThe outlook on Roseximbank's long-term deposit ratings is stable, mirroring the stable outlook on the Russian government's rating.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade

» Long-term deposit ratings will benefit from a positive action on the sovereign rating.

Factors that could lead to a downgrade

» Roseximbank's deposit ratings could be downgraded in the event of any negative rating action on the government's rating, as wellas our reassessment of the current probability of government support.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 29 December 2017 Eximbank of Russia: Semiannual update


Key indicators

Exhibit 2

Eximbank of Russia (Consolidated Financials) [1]12-162 12-153 12-143 12-133 12-123 CAGR/Avg.4

Total Assets (RUB billion) 66 47 15 12 9.4 62.95

Total Assets (USD billion) 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.3 37.05

Tangible Common Equity (RUB billion) 19 11 1 1.6 1.9 79.35

Tangible Common Equity (USD billion) 0.3 0.1 0 0 0.1 50.85

Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 12.5 20.1 36.2 31.9 4.4 21.06

Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 35.4 46.1 8.2 15.4 19.5 35.47

Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 17.8 30.6 98.3 112.0 13.3 54.46

Net Interest Margin (%) 3.4 2.5 2.1 3.5 3.5 3.06

PPI / Average RWA (%) 1.4 4.0 -0.4 0.3 -0.2 1.47

Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 0.6 -0.5 -15.7 -2.6 -0.8 -3.86

Cost / Income Ratio (%) 60.2 56.2 109.4 93.8 104.6 84.86

Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 39.9 55.8 70.3 66.1 59.1 58.26

Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 51.4 59.5 45.7 34.9 28.3 44.06

Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 178.1 280.3 547.5 810.8 1,344.1 632.16[1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS [3] Basel I; IFRS [4] May include rounding differences dueto scale of reported amounts [5] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime [6] Simple average of periods presented for the latestaccounting regime. [7] Simple average of Basel III periods presentedSource: Moody's Financial Metrics

ProfileRoseximbank was established in 1994 as the 100% subsidiary of the fully state-owned VEB. The bank has historically had only a limitedfranchise within the VEB Group, supporting a limited number of export and non-export contracts of Russian companies, includingexports to less developed countries such as Cuba, Angola and Ecuador. JSC Russian Export Center (REC), VEB's subsidiary, executescontrol over the bank via its subsidiary Export Insurance Agency of Russia (EXIAR).

The bank's model was significantly redesigned in 2014, following the Russian government's decision to strengthen support for non-energy export sectors. Roseximbank was included in the government's long-term export support program, which envisaged theestablishment of the Centre for Credit and Guarantee Support of Exports, which is based on cooperation among VEB, REC, EXIAR andRoseximbank. In this role, Roseximbank will be considered as the key government-related lender to non-energy export companies. Thebank's activities will be concentrated in the following areas: (1) pre-export and post-export financing, (2) letters of credit, (3) structuredand project funding, and (4) factoring and leasing operations to support exports. We expect Roseximbank to, in case of need, receivesupport directly from the Russian government or via VEB and EXIAR. This support results in a multi-notch uplift of Roseximbank'sdeposit rating from its BCA of b2.

On 28 November 2014, VEB transferred 100% of the bank’s shares (minus one share) to JSC Russian Agency for EXIAR.

REC was established as a specialized organization offering a one-stop shop for exporters, providing financial and non-financialsupport, including cooperation with relevant ministries and agencies. The establishment of the center was mandated by the RussianGovernment, and the respective decision was made by the supervisory board of VEB on 13 April 2015. The center was officiallyregistered as a 100% subsidiary of VEB on 21 April 2015.

Detailed credit considerationsStrong capital position will remain supported by the governmentWe expect Roseximbank’s capital position to remain strong over the next 12-18 months as it has been in the recent years. Owing tothe regular capital injections made by the government, Roseximbank reported very strong capital ratios, with a total regulatory capitaladequacy ratio and a Tier 1 ratio of 38.5% and 32.8%, respectively. This capital buffer will be sufficient to absorb the expected lossesand support future lending growth, which we expect to remain moderate over the next 12-18 months.

Our Capital score of baa1 reflects our expectation that the bank's capital position will remain strong over the next 12-18 months.



Exhibit 3

Capital ratios

22.0%

59.0%

40.0%

44.0%

12.9%

48.0%

35.6%37.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2014 2015 2016 Q3 2017

Shareholders' Equity, RUB millions (LHS)

Total Regulatory Capital Ratio, (N 1.0) %

Regulatory Tier 1 Ratio, (N 1.2) %

Sources: Bank's financial reports, Central Bank of Russia

Stabilizing asset quality; however, the level of impaired loans remains materialWe expect Roseximbank’s asset quality to remain stable over the next 12-18 months because its development strategy envisagesmoderate lending growth over the next 12-18 months, largely to selective Russian non-commodity exporters in different sectors. Inaddition, the substantial part of Roseximbank's loan portfolio has been under EXIAR insurance (46% of gross loans as of the thirdquarter of 2017 up from 17.5% as of Q3 2016) and guaranteed by the government (20.5% of the gross loans as of Q3 2017 versus 40%as of Q3 2016), providing comfort regarding the repayment of potential problem loans. According to the bank, nonperforming loansstood at 8.6% of gross loans and were fully covered by loan-loss reserves as at 1 December 2017. A bulk of the existing problem loansreflect nonperforming loans inherited from the bank's previous lending policies and are largely represented by a few loans provided toRussian enterprises in 2011-13.

Additionally, the bank's loan book has been concentrated with the 10 largest borrowers for 100% of total shareholders' equity or 61%of gross loans as of 30 September 2017 (year-end 2016: 126% and 76%, respectively). See Banks - Commonwealth of IndependentStates: Single-client and related-party loan concentrations still among highest globally, November 2016.

The majority of the bank's remaining assets comprise mainly cash and fixed-income securities of the Russian government, and thelargest Russian corporate and banking borrowers.

Roseximbank’s adjusted Asset Risk score of b2 reflects the fact that the largest portion of loans is being secured by insurance andguarantees.

Exhibit 4

Asset-quality indicators

31.9%

36.2%

20.1%

12.5%27.1%

76.5%80.9%

90.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Problem Loans/Gross Loans, % (LHS) Loan-loss Reserves/Problem Loans, % (RHS)

Sources: Moody's Financial Metrics, IFRS


https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1049556https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1049556


Recovering profitability following years of loss-making performanceWe expect Roseximbank to remain marginally profitable in 2017-18 and its profitability metrics to remain stable over the next 12-18months, supported by stabilizing asset quality and net interest margin. The bank posted a net profit of RUB436 million for the first ninemonths of 2017, down from the net profit of RUB854 million reported for the first nine months of 2016. In the first nine months of2017, the bank's profitability was hurt by an increased cost of risk of around 4% from 0.6% in 2016 owing to the provisioning of onelarge problem loan.

Roseximbank’s business model envisages only marginal profitability in the years to come because the bank is largely considered tobe the government's operative arm, supporting export-oriented industries, rather than an income-generating commercial bank. Theadjusted Profitability score of caa1 in the scorecard is based on this scenario.

Strengthening funding and liquidity profilesWe expect Roseximbank's liquidity position to remain robust over the next 12-18 months as it has been in the recent years, particularlygiven that the bank can rely on liquidity support from the government. The bank has maintained a solid buffer of liquid assets ofaround 40% in 2017, supported by a high turnover rate in its loan book. We expect the liquidity buffer to partially be utilized toincrease the loan portfolio over the next 12-18 months.

As of the end of September 2017, the bank's funding base largely comprised (1) customer account (37%), and (2) government funds andinterbank loans (30%), and (3) debt issued (27% of total liabilities). We expect the bank to increasingly rely on market funding, which isreflected in our funding scorecard sub-factor adjustments.

Roseximbank's combined Liquidity score of b1 reflects the bank's robust liquidity profile along with a high reliance on wholesalefunding.

Support and structural considerationsGovernment supportRoseximbank's global local-currency deposit rating of Ba2/Not Prime incorporates a very high probability of government support,which is based on (1) the Russian government's ultimate control over Roseximbank executed via VEB and EXIAR, (2) the bank's strategicimportance to the Russian government, and (3) a track record of the government's strong capital and funding support already providedto the bank in 2014-16.



Rating methodology and scorecard factors

Exhibit 5

Eximbank of RussiaMacro FactorsWeighted Macro Profile Weak + 100%

Factor HistoricRatio

MacroAdjusted

Score

CreditTrend

Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2

SolvencyAsset RiskProblem Loans / Gross Loans 22.9% caa2 ↑ b2 Quality of assetsCapitalTCE / RWA 35.4% baa1 ← → baa1 Expected trendProfitabilityNet Income / Tangible Assets -5.2% caa3 ↓ ↓ caa1 Expected trendCombined Solvency Score b1 ba3LiquidityFunding StructureMarket Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 39.9% b3 ↓ b3 Expected trendLiquid ResourcesLiquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 51.4% baa2 ↓ ↓ ba2 Expected trendCombined Liquidity Score ba3 b1Financial Profile ba3

Business Diversification -1Opacity and Complexity 0Corporate Behavior 0

Total Qualitative Adjustments -1Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Ba1Scorecard Calculated BCA range ba3-b2Assigned BCA b2Affiliate Support notching 0Adjusted BCA b2

Instrument class Loss GivenFailure notching

AdditionalNotching

Preliminary RatingAssessment

GovernmentSupport notching

Local CurrencyRating

ForeignCurrency

RatingCounterparty Risk Assessment 1 0 b1 (cr) 3 Ba1 (cr) --Deposits 0 0 b2 3 Ba2 Ba2Source: Moody's Financial Metrics



Ratings

Exhibit 6Category Moody's RatingEXIMBANK OF RUSSIA

Outlook StableBank Deposits Ba2/NPBaseline Credit Assessment b2Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment b2Counterparty Risk Assessment Ba1(cr)/NP(cr)

PARENT: VNESHECONOMBANK

Outlook StableBaseline Credit Assessment b3Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment b3Issuer Rating Ba1ST Issuer Rating NP

Source: Moody's Investors Service



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Eximbank of RussiaEximbank of Russia Semiannual update Summary We assign long-term foreign- and...

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