Exide 1QFY2013 RU -...

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY13 1QFY12 % chg (yoy) 4QFY12 % chg (qoq) Net Sales 1,554 1,248 24.5 1,448 7.3 EBITDA 233 223 4.6 213 9.3 EBITDA Margin (%) 15.0 17.8 (285)bp 14.7 27bp Adj. PAT 152 163 (6.9) 143 6.7 Source: Company, Angel Research Exide Industries (EXID) reported better-than-expected results for 1QFY2013, driven by strong volume growth in the two-wheeler (+28% yoy) and industrial battery (+19% yoy) segments. EBITDA margin however, remained suppressed led by higher input costs and other expenditure. We have raised our top-line estimates slightly for FY2013E/14E as we believe the anticipated improvement in auto OEM sales and pick-up in the auto replacement battery segment will benefit the company. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Better-than-expected operating performance: For 1QFY2013, EXID’s top-line surprised positively, registering robust 24.5% yoy (7.3% qoq) growth to `1,554cr, driven by strong growth in the two-wheeler (+28% yoy) and industrial battery volumes (+19% yoy). Growth in the industrial battery segment was led by growth in inverter and UPS batteries. Four-wheeler battery volumes continued to remain subdued and grew 10% yoy aided by demand pick-up in the replacement segment. EBITDA margin slipped by 285bp yoy to 15% owing to raw-material cost increases (+140bp yoy) and higher other expenditure (+170bp yoy). While the lead prices declined 22% yoy (6% qoq), INR depreciation against the USD (~21% yoy and ~8% qoq) negated most of the resulting advantages. Other expenditure increased primarily led by foreign exchange loss of `10cr. As a result, net profit declined by 6.9% yoy to `152cr. Outlook and valuation: We expect EXID to report improvement in its performance in FY2013E led by likely revival in demand in the four-wheeler OEM as well as replacement batteries and decline in lead prices. Nonetheless, current valuations of 14.5x FY2014E earnings, captures most of the positives in our view. We therefore maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `149. We value EXID’s core operations in-line with its historical average of 15x its FY2014E EPS at `137/share. We value its stake in ING Vysya Life Insurance at `12/share on FY2014E NBAP. Key financials (Standalone) Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E Net Sales 4,547 5,107 5,899 6,771 % chg 19.9 12.3 15.5 14.8 Net Profit 633 461 626 776 % chg 17.8 (27.1) 35.6 24.0 EBITDA (%) 19.4 13.4 16.0 17.0 EPS (`) 7.4 5.4 7.4 9.1 P/E (x) 16.9 24.4 18.0 14.5 P/BV (x) 4.1 3.7 3.2 2.7 RoE (%) 25.5 15.9 19.0 20.2 RoCE (%) 30.5 19.3 24.0 25.9 EV/Sales (x) 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 14.0 9.9 7.7 Source: Company, Angel Research ACCUMULATE CMP `132 Target Price `149 Investment Period 12 Months Stock Info Sector (58) Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 46.0 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 25.2 FII / NRIs / OCBs 18.5 Indian Public / Others 10.3 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex (1.5) (7.8) 16.0 Exide Industries (4.7) (21.5) 68.6 Auto Ancillary Avg. Daily Volume Market Cap ( ` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Net Debt ( ` cr) Face Value ( `) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code 1 17,105 5,193 EXID.BO EXID@IN 11,249 0.5 175/99 224,758 Yaresh Kothari 022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 [email protected] Exide Industries Performance Highlights 1QFY2013 Result Update | Auto Ancillary July 17, 2012

Transcript of Exide 1QFY2013 RU -...

Page 1: Exide 1QFY2013 RU - web.angelbackoffice.comweb.angelbackoffice.com/research/archives/fundamental/company_r… · FII / NRIs / OCBs 18.5 Indian Public / Others 10.3 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY13 1QFY12 % chg (yoy) 4QFY12 % chg (qoq)

Net Sales 1,554 1,248 24.5 1,448 7.3

EBITDA 233 223 4.6 213 9.3

EBITDA Margin (%) 15.0 17.8 (285)bp 14.7 27bp

Adj. PAT 152 163 (6.9) 143 6.7

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exide Industries (EXID) reported better-than-expected results for 1QFY2013, driven by strong volume growth in the two-wheeler (+28% yoy) and industrial battery (+19% yoy) segments. EBITDA margin however, remained suppressed led by higher input costs and other expenditure. We have raised our top-line estimates slightly for FY2013E/14E as we believe the anticipated improvement in auto OEM sales and pick-up in the auto replacement battery segment will benefit the company. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock.

Better-than-expected operating performance: For 1QFY2013, EXID’s top-line surprised positively, registering robust 24.5% yoy (7.3% qoq) growth to `1,554cr, driven by strong growth in the two-wheeler (+28% yoy) and industrial battery volumes (+19% yoy). Growth in the industrial battery segment was led by growth in inverter and UPS batteries. Four-wheeler battery volumes continued to remain subdued and grew 10% yoy aided by demand pick-up in the replacement segment. EBITDA margin slipped by 285bp yoy to 15% owing to raw-material cost increases (+140bp yoy) and higher other expenditure (+170bp yoy). While the lead prices declined 22% yoy (6% qoq), INR depreciation against the USD (~21% yoy and ~8% qoq) negated most of the resulting advantages. Other expenditure increased primarily led by foreign exchange loss of `10cr. As a result, net profit declined by 6.9% yoy to `152cr.

Outlook and valuation: We expect EXID to report improvement in its performance in FY2013E led by likely revival in demand in the four-wheeler OEM as well as replacement batteries and decline in lead prices. Nonetheless, current valuations of 14.5x FY2014E earnings, captures most of the positives in our view. We therefore maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `149. We value EXID’s core operations in-line with its historical average of 15x its FY2014E EPS at `137/share. We value its stake in ING Vysya Life Insurance at `12/share on FY2014E NBAP.

Key financials (Standalone) Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E Net Sales 4,547 5,107 5,899 6,771

% chg 19.9 12.3 15.5 14.8

Net Profit 633 461 626 776

% chg 17.8 (27.1) 35.6 24.0

EBITDA (%) 19.4 13.4 16.0 17.0

EPS (`) 7.4 5.4 7.4 9.1

P/E (x) 16.9 24.4 18.0 14.5

P/BV (x) 4.1 3.7 3.2 2.7

RoE (%) 25.5 15.9 19.0 20.2

RoCE (%) 30.5 19.3 24.0 25.9

EV/Sales (x) 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 14.0 9.9 7.7 Source: Company, Angel Research

ACCUMULATE CMP `132 Target Price `149

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

(58)

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 46.0

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 25.2

FII / NRIs / OCBs 18.5

Indian Public / Others 10.3

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (1.5) (7.8) 16.0

Exide Industries (4.7) (21.5) 68.6

Auto Ancillary

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Net Debt (` cr)

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

1

17,105

5,193

EXID.BO

EXID@IN

11,249

0.5

175/99

224,758

Yaresh Kothari 022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844

[email protected]

Exide Industries Performance Highlights

1QFY2013 Result Update | Auto Ancillary

July 17, 2012

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Exide Industries | 1QFY2013 Result Update

July 17, 2012

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Exhibit 1: 1QFY2013 financial performance (Standalone) Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY13 1QFY12 % chg (yoy) 4QFY12 % chg (qoq) FY2012 FY2011 % chg (yoy)

Net Sales 1,554 1,248 24.5 1,448 7.3 5,111 4,572 11.8

Consumption of RM 1,010 793 27.3 970 4.1 3,426 2,762 24.1

(% of Sales) 65.0 63.6 67.0 67.0 60.4 Staff Costs 84 72 16.8 75 12.7 286 283 1.2

(% of Sales) 5.4 5.8 5.2 5.6 6.2 Purchases of TG 1 1 143.1 2 (40.3) 7 61 (88.1)

(% of Sales) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.3 Other Expenses 225 160 41.2 187 20.3 704 563 25.1

(% of Sales) 14.5 12.8 12.9 13.8 12.3 Total Expenditure 1,321 1,026 28.8 1,235 7.0 4,423 3,669 20.6

Operating Profit 233 223 4.6 213 9.3 688 903 (23.8)

OPM (%) 15.0 17.8 14.7 13.5 19.7 Interest 1 1 (4.2) 1 0.0 5 6 (12.1)

Depreciation 28 24 16.5 27 1.3 101 83 20.6

Other Income 15 31 (52.1) 15 0.5 63 80 (20.8)

PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 219 228 (4.2) 199 9.8 645 893 (27.8)

Extr. Income/(Expense) - - - - - - 47 -

PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 219 228 (4.2) 199 9.8 645 846 (23.8)

(% of Sales) 14.1 18.3 13.7 12.6 18.5 Provision for Taxation 67 65 2.4 57 17.7 184 274 (32.8)

(% of PBT) 30.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 32.4 Reported PAT 152 163 (6.9) 143 6.7 461 666 (30.8)

Adj PAT 152 163 (6.9) 143 6.7 461 619 (25.5)

Adj. PATM 9.8 13.1 9.8 9.0 13.5 Equity capital (cr) 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 Reported EPS (`) 1.8 1.9 (6.9) 1.7 6.7 5.4 7.8 (30.8)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: 1QFY2013 – Actual vs. Angel estimates Y/E March (` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)

Net Sales 1,554 1,420 9.4

EBITDA 233 216 8.0

EBITDA margin (%) 15.0 15.2 (20)bp

Adj. PAT 152 147 3.4

Source: Company, Angel Research

Top-line growth surprises positively: EXID reported better-than-expected 24.5% yoy (7.3% qoq) growth in its top line to `1,554cr, driven by strong growth in two-wheeler and industrial battery volumes. While the two-wheeler segment posted 28% yoy volume growth, industrial battery volumes grew by 19% yoy despite de-growth in the telecom battery sales. Four-wheeler battery volumes, however, remained subdued registering a 10% yoy growth led by demand pick-up in the replacement battery segment.

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Exide Industries | 1QFY2013 Result Update

July 17, 2012

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EXID is planing to raise two-wheeler and industrial battery capacity by ~6% (to 22.8mn) and 4% (to 2,500mnAH), respectively, in FY2013. Four-wheeler battery capacity currently stands at 11mn units, which is expected to increase to 12mn by the end of 1HFY2013.

During the quarter, EXID rolled out Home UPS systems across India under its own brand and the product has been accepted well by the markets.

Exhibit 3: Better-than-expected top-line growth of 24.5% yoy

Source: Company, Angel Research

Operating margin still under pressure: During 1QFY2013, the company’s operating margin stood at 15%, a decline of 285bp yoy, primarily on account of higher raw-material expenses (+140bp yoy) and increase in other expenditure (+170bp yoy). While the lead prices declined 22% yoy (6% qoq), INR depreciation against the USD (~21% yoy and ~8% qoq) negated most of the resulting advantages. Other expenditure increased to 14.5% of net sales on account of higher advertising spends as well as forex loss of `10cr. Adjusted for the forex loss, EBITDA margin stood at 15.6%. On a sequential basis, raw material cost/sales declined by 210bp on account of lower lead prices and superior product mix in favor of replacement segment.

Exhibit 4: Average lead price trend

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: EBITDA margin trend

Source: Company, Angel Research

1,152 1,127 1,050 1,248 1,248 1,176 1,250 1,448 1,554

27.5

18.6

15.0

21.2

8.3

4.3

19.0 16.0

24.5

0.0

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(%)(` cr) Net sales (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

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(tonne)(US $/tonne) Lead inventory (RHS) Lead prices (LHS)

22.8 21.8 15.2 18.7 17.8

7.7 13.2 14.7 15.0

59.6 59.3 65.1 62.8 63.9

72.3 67.4 67.3 65.2

0.0

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(%) EBITDA margin Raw material cost/sales

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Exide Industries | 1QFY2013 Result Update

July 17, 2012

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Net profit declines 6.9% yoy: EXID reported 6.9% yoy decline in net profit to `152cr led mainly by margin contraction and higher tax outgo (tax rate of 30.4% in 1QFY2013 vs. 28.5% in 1QFY2012). Lower other income (down 52.1% yoy) in 1QFY2013 due to lack of dividend income from subsidiaries also impacted the bottom-line performance. However, due to better-than-expected top-line growth net profit grew 6.7% sequentially.

Exhibit 6: Decline in operating margins led to decline in net profit

Source: Company, Angel Research

165 166 124 164 163 51 104 143 152

14.4 14.7

11.8

13.1 13.1

4.3

8.3 9.8 9.8

0.0

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(%)(`cr) Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS)

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Exide Industries | 1QFY2013 Result Update

July 17, 2012

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Investment arguments

Demand scenario for auto and industrial batteries to remain positive in the long run: The auto and industrial battery segments have been witnessing strong growth post the economic downturn, driven by robust demand-pull on account of higher auto and industrial production and increased consumer spending. As a result, we expect the auto and industrial battery segments to continue to grow, generating revenue CAGRs of ~15% and ~12%, respectively, over FY2012-14E. Hence, we forecast EXID to register strong revenue CAGRs of ~15% and ~14% in the auto and industrial battery segments, respectively.

Market leader with a wider reach and pricing power: EXID is a dominant player in the auto battery (OEM and replacement) and industrial battery segments with a market share of 60-65% and 40-45%, respectively. EXID has leveraged upon its brand equity, better quality proposition and wider reach to consolidate its position in the market, which gives the company a superior pricing power compared to peers. Over the years, EXID has been able to improve its realization across the auto and industrial battery segments, which has more than offset the movements in input prices. We expect EXID to continue to leverage upon its market leadership position and pricing power, which would enhance the company’s ability to pass on cost increases in the future as well.

Captive sourcing reduces impact of lead price volatility: EXID acquired Tandon Metals (FY2008) and Leadage Alloys (51% in FY2009 and 49% in 2QFY2011) to recycle lead and lessen the vulnerability of rising lead prices. This reduced the company's dependence on imported lead in FY2011 to 28-30% (~32% in FY2010). Total lead supplied by the captive smelter increased to ~52% in FY2011 from ~50% in FY2010. EXID has benefitted from its captive sourcing strategy, as lead sourcing from captive smelters is 10-12% cheaper compared to market rates. Going forward, EXID plans to increase sourcing from its smelters to ~70% by FY2013E. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that for every 10% increase in sourcing from captive smelters, the company’s EBITDA margin expands by ~50bp (assuming stable lead prices).

Capacity expansion to increase volume growth: EXID has been operating at ~90% utilization levels over the past five years. Hence, the company is in the process of increasing its battery capacity to cater to the growing demand. As a result of increased capacity, we believe EXID is well placed to meet the rising auto battery demand. We estimate the company’s overall utilization level to remain at 75-80% in FY2014E. Further, we expect EXID to post volume CAGRs of ~13% each in the auto and industrial battery segments, respectively, over FY2012-14E.

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Exide Industries | 1QFY2013 Result Update

July 17, 2012

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Outlook and valuation

We maintain our long-term positive outlook on the battery industry. We have raised our volume and top-line estimates slightly for FY2013E/14E as we believe the anticipated improvement in auto OEM sales and pick-up in the auto replacement battery segment will benefit the company.

We expect EXID to report improvement in its performance in FY2013E led by likely revival in demand in the four-wheeler OEM as well as replacement batteries and decline in lead prices. Nonetheless, current valuations of 14.5x FY2014E earnings, captures most of the positives in our view. We therefore maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `149. We value EXID’s core operations in-line with its historical average of 15x its FY2014E EPS at `137/share. We value its stake in ING Vysya Life Insurance at `12/share on FY2014E NBAP.

Exhibit 7: Change in estimates Y/E March Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates % chg

FY2013E FY2014E FY2013E FY2014E FY2013E FY2014E

Net Sales (` cr) 5,787 6,595 5,899 6,771 1.9 2.7

OPM (%) 15.5 17.0 16.0 17.0 45bp (0)bp

EPS (`) 7.1 9.0 7.4 9.1 3.7 1.4

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 8: One-year forward P/E band

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 9: One-year forward P/E chart

Source: Company, Angel Research

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180 200

Apr

-01

Mar

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(x) One-yr forward P/E Five-yr average P/ELong term average P/E

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Exide Industries | 1QFY2013 Result Update

July 17, 2012

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Exhibit 10: Key assumptions

FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E

Automotive battery volumes (mn units) Four-wheeler 6.6 7.5 8.2 7.8 8.7 10.0

yoy change (%) 10.0 12.9 10.4 (4.6) 11.5 14.0

Two-wheeler 8.3 8.7 10.8 13.9 15.8 17.7

yoy change (%) 15.3 5.4 23.2 28.6 14.0 12.0

Total Automotive volumes 14.9 16.2 19.0 21.7 24.5 27.7

yoy change (%) 12.9 8.7 17.3 14.2 13.1 12.7

Industrial battery volumes (mnAH) 1,316 1,565 1,760 1,830 2,087 2,337

yoy change (%) 16.6 18.9 12.5 4.0 14.0 12.0

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 11: Angel vs. consensus forecast Angel estimates Consensus Variation (%)

FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Net sales (` cr) 5,899 6,771 5,882 6,790 0.3 (0.3)

EPS (`) 7.4 9.1 7.6 9.0 (2.9) 1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 12: Auto Ancillary – Recommendation summary

Company Reco. CMP (`)

Tgt. price (`)

Upside (%)

P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY12-14E EPS

FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E CAGR (%)

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 306 345 12.7 10.5 9.3 6.0 5.0 26.0 23.3 14.1

Automotive Axle^ Accumulate 433 457 5.5 8.6 7.6 4.8 4.2 27.8 25.7 22.5

Bharat Forge* Buy 294 372 26.4 13.2 11.1 6.3 5.2 21.0 21.0 21.7

Bosch India# Accumulate 8,689 9,206 6.0 21.2 18.9 13.6 11.7 22.1 20.4 16.4

Exide Industries Accumulate 132 149 12.5 18.0 14.5 9.9 7.7 19.0 20.2 29.7

FAG Bearings# Neutral 1,495 - - 13.0 11.5 7.4 6.1 23.5 21.6 10.7

Motherson Sumi* Buy 166 216 30.3 12.5 9.2 5.7 4.5 26.2 28.4 54.6

Subros Accumulate 34 36 5.7 7.5 6.6 4.7 4.2 9.8 11.0 25.7

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Consolidated results; # December year end; ^ September year end

Company background

Exide Industries (EXID) is a leading automobile and industrial battery manufacturer in India. The company commands a ~70% and ~65% market share in the OEM and organized replacement battery segment and a 40-45% share in the industrial battery segment. Exide has technological tie-ups with majors such as Shin Kobe and Furukawa Battery. The automotive and industrial battery segments accounted for ~65% and ~35% of the company's total revenue in FY2012, respectively. Exide also has a 50% stake in ING Vysya Insurance Ltd., a JV with ING Group, Netherlands.

Page 8: Exide 1QFY2013 RU - web.angelbackoffice.comweb.angelbackoffice.com/research/archives/fundamental/company_r… · FII / NRIs / OCBs 18.5 Indian Public / Others 10.3 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr

Exide Industries | 1QFY2013 Result Update

July 17, 2012

8

Profit and loss statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E

Total operating income 3,393 3,794 4,547 5,107 5,899 6,771

% chg 19.2 11.8 19.9 12.3 15.5 14.8

Total expenditure 2,845 2,902 3,666 4,421 4,958 5,620

Net raw material costs 2,248 2,158 2,823 3,433 3,811 4,333

Other mfg costs 188 231 283 325 381 440

Employee expenses 165 230 283 286 330 379

Other 243 283 277 376 437 467

EBITDA 548 892 881 686 941 1,151

% chg 16.1 62.8 (1.2) (22.1) 37.1 22.3

(% of total op. income) 16.1 23.5 19.4 13.4 16.0 17.0

Depreciation & amortization 68 81 83 101 115 118

EBIT 480 811 798 585 826 1,033

% chg 17.8 69.0 (1.7) (26.6) 41.1 25.1

(% of total op. income) 14.1 21.4 17.5 11.5 14.0 15.3

Interest and other charges 52 14 9 8 8 8

Other income 7 12 151 67 75 83

(% of PBT) 1.6 1.5 16.7 10.4 8.4 7.5

Recurring PBT 435 810 940 645 894 1,109

% chg 17.6 86.2 16.0 (31.4) 38.6 24.0

PBT (reported) 434 811 907 645 894 1,109

Tax 151 273 274 184 268 333

(% of PBT) 34.7 33.7 30.2 28.5 30.0 30.0

PAT (reported) 284 537 666 461 626 776

ADJ. PAT 283 537 633 461 626 776

% chg 16.0 89.7 17.8 (27.1) 35.6 24.0

(% of total op. income) 8.3 14.2 13.9 9.0 10.6 11.5

Basic EPS (`) 3.6 6.3 7.8 5.4 7.4 9.1

Adj. EPS (`) 3.5 6.3 7.4 5.4 7.4 9.1

% chg 16.0 78.5 17.8 (27.1) 35.6 24.0

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Exide Industries | 1QFY2013 Result Update

July 17, 2012

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Balance sheet statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity share capital 80 85 85 85 85 85

Reserves & surplus 1,170 2,135 2,657 2,972 3,449 4,076

Shareholders’ Funds 1,250 2,220 2,742 3,057 3,534 4,161

Total loans 317 90 - - - -

Deferred tax liability 41 59 68 83 83 83

Other long term liabilities - - 3 4 4 4

Long term provisions - - 46 54 54 54

Total Liabilities 1,609 2,369 2,860 3,198 3,675 4,302

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross block 1,257 1,336 1,561 1,777 2,024 2,220

Less: Acc. depreciation 589 660 725 810 925 1,042

Net Block 668 677 836 967 1,099 1,178

Capital work-in-progress 17 38 47 27 51 56

Investments 668 1,335 1,378 1,555 1,786 2,091

Long term loans and advances - - 31 18 18 18

Other noncurrent assets - - - 1 1 1

Current assets 742 912 1,314 1,528 1,812 2,170

Cash 34 3 15 58 174 313

Loans & advances 38 48 63 96 118 135

Other 669 861 1,236 1,375 1,520 1,722

Current liabilities 487 593 747 896 1,091 1,211

Net current assets 255 319 567 632 720 959

Total Assets 1,609 2,369 2,860 3,198 3,675 4,302

Source: Company, Angel Research

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Cash flow statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E

Profit before tax 435 810 940 645 894 1,109

Depreciation 68 81 83 101 115 118

Change in working capital 61 (59) (238) (29) 28 (100)

Others 98 (23) 37 44 - -

Other income (7) (12) (151) (67) (75) (83)

Direct taxes paid (151) (273) (274) (184) (268) (333)

Cash Flow from Operations 505 524 398 510 693 711

(Inc.)/Dec. in fixed assets (130) (100) (234) (195) (271) (201)

(Inc.)/Dec. in investments (150) (667) (43) (177) (232) (305)

Other income 7 12 151 67 75 83

Cash Flow from Investing (273) (755) (126) (304) (428) (423)

Issue of equity - 530 - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans (33) (227) (90) (0) - -

Dividend paid (Incl. Tax) 37 56 95 140 149 149

Others (204) (159) (265) (281) - -

Cash Flow from Financing (199) 200 (260) (140) (149) (149)

Inc./(Dec.) in cash 32 (31) 12 43 116 139

Opening Cash balances 2 34 3 15 58 174

Closing Cash balances 34 3 15 58 174 313

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Key ratios

Y/E March FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E

Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 37.2 20.9 16.9 24.4 18.0 14.5

P/CEPS 30.1 18.2 15.7 20.0 15.2 12.6

P/BV 8.7 5.1 4.1 3.7 3.2 2.7

Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

EV/Sales 3.2 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3

EV/EBITDA 19.8 11.2 11.2 14.0 9.9 7.7

EV / Total Assets 6.8 4.2 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.1

Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) 3.6 6.3 7.8 5.4 7.4 9.1

EPS (fully diluted) 3.5 6.3 7.4 5.4 7.4 9.1

Cash EPS 4.4 7.3 8.4 6.6 8.7 10.5

DPS 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Book Value 15.2 25.8 31.9 35.7 41.3 48.6

Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 14.1 21.4 17.5 11.5 14.0 15.3

Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Asset turnover (x) 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.8

ROIC (Post-tax) 36.0 57.4 45.6 27.9 35.6 40.6

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 10.1 4.4 13.5 - - -

Leverage (x) - - - - - -

Operating ROE 36.0 57.4 45.6 27.9 - -

Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 31.7 40.8 30.5 19.3 24.0 25.9

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 54.9 81.1 55.4 37.5 48.9 55.2

ROE 25.1 31.0 25.5 15.9 19.0 20.2

Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2

Inventory / Sales (days) 54 50 59 65 63 62

Receivables (days) 26 23 25 27 27 26

Payables (days) 46 42 46 52 52 51

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 28 26 35 40 35 32

Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity (0.3) (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.6)

Net debt to EBITDA (0.7) (1.4) (1.6) (2.3) (2.1) (2.1)

Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 9.3 60.1 91.8 78 110 137

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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

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Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information.

Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement Exide Industries

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors