Exhibit 5 - E&E News · 2017-06-13 · exhibit 5 . filed: new york county clerk 06/02/2017 07:50 am...
Transcript of Exhibit 5 - E&E News · 2017-06-13 · exhibit 5 . filed: new york county clerk 06/02/2017 07:50 am...
Exhibit 5
FILED: NEW YORK COUNTY CLERK 06/02/2017 07:50 AM INDEX NO. 451962/2016
NYSCEF DOC. NO. 174 RECEIVED NYSCEF: 06/02/2017
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GHG Emissions Background
EU-Emissions Trading System Credit Prices
$/T C02e Monthly Average Spot Prices
50
40
30
20
10
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
DRAFT Proprietary
EU-Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)
Remains the world's largest carbon market
Allowance values depressed by oversupply due to economic slump and overlapping directives
EC implemented "backloading" policy February 2014 in attempt to buoy price; limited market response experienced or expected
Activities outside the EU
Advancement of U.S. federal GHG regulations under the CAA likely in 2014 for power plants and methane emissions; broad market-based system unlikely in near-term
California Cap & Trade to add mobile sources in 2015; became linked with Quebec program January 2014
Anticipate price and intensity reduction target increase for Alberta SGRE program in 2014/15; currently at $15/T and 12% reduction
Australia program to convert to market-based Cap & Trade July 2015 with linkage to EU, if not repealed by Abbott government
New Zealand remains linked with EU
EJf(onMobil
FILED: NEW YORK COUNTY CLERK 06/02/2017 07:50 AM INDEX NO. 451962/2016
NYSCEF DOC. NO. 174 RECEIVED NYSCEF: 06/02/2017
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GHG Emissions Planning Basis DRAFT Proprietary
14' $/T C02e GHG Planning Basis
60
50
40
30
20
10
+ + + + EU-ETS Futures
0 2010 2015 2020
2014 Real $US
2025 2030
Propose aligning 2015 Corporate Planning basis with EO for EU ETS @ $60/T C02e in 2030
For locations covered by the EU or NZ ETS, include in project and operational economics: $10/T C02e for 2014-18, then rising linearly to $60/T in 2030
For Australia, include: $24/T C02e in 2014 and $25/T in 2015, then falling to EU ETS price in 2016
For California, include: $12/T C02e in 2014, rising with floor price escalation (5%/yr) through 2018, then merging with EU I NZ ETS
For OECD areas not covered by the EU, NZ, AU, or CA programs, include: EU I NZ pricing basis for C02 and Methane beginning in 2018, or local specifics if known to differ from EU price basis
For non-OECD areas, do not include a GHG cost/credit in base economics; include a sensitivity case where there is a material possibility of domestic GHG regulation (e.g. Kazakhstan, China)
Identify where GHG costs or credits are material to decision economics
Identify where GHG emissions are material to total corporate emissions
EJf(onMobil
FILED: NEW YORK COUNTY CLERK 06/02/2017 07:50 AM INDEX NO. 451962/2016
NYSCEF DOC. NO. 174 RECEIVED NYSCEF: 06/02/2017
GHG Emissions Planning Basis DRAFT Proprietary
14' $/T C02e
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2010
2014 Real $US
GHG Planning Basis
,' , ,'
,,'.,
,.-'13' Plan EU ETS
2015 2020 2025 2030
Propose aligning 2015 Corporate Planning basis with EO for EU ETS @ $60/T C02e in 2030
For locations covered by the EU or NZ ETS, include in project and operational economics: $10/T C02e for 2014-18, then rising linearly to $60/T in 2030
For Australia, include: $24/T C02e in 2014 and $25/T in 2015, then falling to EU ETS price in 2016
For California, include: $12/TC02e in 2014, rising with floor price escalation (5%/yr) through 2018, then merging with EU I NZ ETS
For OECD areas not covered by the EU, NZ, AU, or CA programs, include: EU I NZ pricing basis for C02 and Methane beginning in 2018, or local specifics if known to differ from EU price basis
For non-OECD areas, do not include a GHG cost/credit in base economics: include a sensitivity case where there is a material possibility of domestic GHG regulation (e g, Kazakhstan, China)
Identify where GHG costs or credits are material to decision economics
Identify where GHG emissions are material to total corporate emissions
EJf(onMobil
• Over the past several years, the Corporate Plan and Energy Outlook GHG emissions costs basis have been disconnected (CP $40/T and EO $60/T in 2030), The likely rational for this was to provide a conservative CP basis for evaluating energy conservation I emissions reductions projects, We propose to bring these prices together in 2014 for the following reasons: 1, While using a lower cost basis in the CP provides a conservative view for evaluating energy conservation I
emissions reduction investments, it provides an non-conservative view for evaluating capacity growth investments that involve GHG emission creation (combustion I venting I flaring etc,)
2, In recent reports released by EM ("Energy and Climate" and "Energy and Carbon - Managing the risk") we have implied that we use the EO basis for proxy cost of carbon when evaluating investments,
• The direction and slope of the EU/NZ ETS line is driven by reaching $80/T in 2040, This is our outlook price for CCS on new coal fired power plants,
EU ETS outlook pricing basis remains flat through 2018, then begins to increasing in 2019, reflecting a decision at the Conference of Parties meeting in Paris (COP 21), At this meeting, binding GHG reduction commitments should be made by member nations for implementation in 2020, consistent with 2011 COP 17 Durban Platform,
• Australia outlook reflects current regulation where as Cap & Trade program transitions from effective fixed price to market based, versus discussed regulatory repeal
• California outlook reflects credit pricing 10% above regulated floor price, consistent with demonstrated market performance (January 2013 - current), The market is currently over supplied with allowances and is expected to remain oversupplied for the next several year, The over supply was mainly driven by reduced power consumption as a result of the economic downturn,
In 2013 we showed OECD areas adopting regulation and linking with the EU ETS in 2016, Due to lack of regulatory activity, we have shifted this start date to 2019, We are also requesting that methane emissions be included as well as C02,
For non-OECD we are not including GHG cost or credits in base economics, We are however requesting that a sensitivity case be included where there is a material possibility of domestic GHG regulation (e,g, Kazakhstan, China), We are also requesting that any material options to reduce GHG emissions that could be attractive at 75% of EU-ETS price basis which might be captured through international offsets: Likely long term mechanism to tie programs together, despite recent COM market collapse
Confidential I FOIL Treatment Requested by Exxon Mobil Corp, Pursuant to Pub, Officers Law§ 87(2) EMC 000539923
FILED: NEW YORK COUNTY CLERK 06/02/2017 07:50 AM INDEX NO. 451962/2016
NYSCEF DOC. NO. 174 RECEIVED NYSCEF: 06/02/2017