Executive Summary - Designing the Green Economy
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Page 1 Executive Summary: Designing the Green Economy
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
DESIGNING THE GREEN ECONOMY
REPORT FROM AN EXPERTS WORKSHOP
THE GENEVA WORKSHOP DECEMBER 2011
THE GRADUATE INSTITUTE – GENEVA
A WORKSHOP SPONSORED BY UNEP AND THE CENTRE FOR
INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES, THE GRADUATE
INSTITUTE-GENEVA, 11-13 DECEMBER, 2011.
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Page 2 Executive Summary: Designing the Green Economy
Executive Summary: Designing the Green Economy
Introduction
The question of how governments can direct
economies towards a sustainable path of
growth is a topic that currently ranks high on
the agendas of policy makers. Together with the
question of how such a policy can benefit the
society concerned, these two questions are at
the heart of the pursuit of the “Green
Economy”.
This short paper attempts to summarise what
economics as an academic discipline can tell us
about the hard questions which underlie this
policy discussion. This Executive Summary is the
synthesis of the academic discussions held at
the workshop “Designing the Green Economy”
together with an economic framework paper
developed for that workshop (Swanson and
Ziegelhöfer 2011). The Executive Summary
attempts to summarise the consensus view of
the participants at the workshop (see Annex for
the Workshop Agenda).
We make the case that composite policies can
be designed which enable a society to pursue
multiple objectives, combining environmental,
innovation, growth/development and
competitiveness goals. We discuss the
underlying economics of the policy discussions
and provide insight regarding what instruments
and policies may work to target the mentioned
composite goals. In the discussion, we
distinguish between the different needs
between developed countries - which may
benefit from the Green Economy by innovation
at the technology frontier - and developing
countries which are more likely to benefit from
technology transfer, diffusion and other means.
We argue that economies can be directed
towards the Green Economy by means of a
combination of resource management and
innovation policies. In terms of resource
management policies, governments can place
appropriate prices on resources (including
natural public goods such as the atmosphere).
Appropriate resource prices (reflecting the path
of future scarcity) will foster green technological
progress by influencing the rate and direction of
investment in innovation.
Innovation policies take the form of (usually)
direct investments by the government to relieve
constraints that hinder the development of new
technologies. These investments can generate
new forms of capital – in order to enable the
industry to advance in a particular direction
(such as investments in particular forms of
human capital) or these investments can relax
conditions that are preventing change in the
society (such as retirement of forms of capital).
For developing countries, the Green Economy is
not so much a question of innovation at the
technological frontier but rather one of
technology transfer and diffusion. By designing
appropriate policies, developing countries can
strengthen their capacity to adapt green
technologies and hence to become receptive to
a flow of benefits from the Green Economy.
In the following, we will summarise the basic
economics behind the notion of the Green
Economy, and explain how and when economics
can justify economies moving in this direction.
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Page 3 Executive Summary: Designing the Green Economy
Growth, Resource Limits and Economics –
fundamental issues
First we outline what it takes for an economy to
develop along a sustainable path of growth. We
base our discussion of the concept of
sustainability around the economics definition,
stated as “non-declining consumption” over
time (Pezzey 1992). This means that a path is
chosen that enables a society to expect growth
and consumption to continue into the indefinite
future.
The question whether growth and consumption
can be sustained in the face of finite resources
was discussed in the early economic works of
Malthus and Ricardo in the 19th
century. Both
authors believed that growth could not continue
indefinitely. Also in modern times, similar
arguments have been brought forward by
various “neo-Malthusians” (Meadows et al.
1972). However, time has demonstrated that
these simplified models have not yet correctly
predicted the end of growth. On the contrary,
productivity has yet to decline on account of
increasing resource scarcity. How is it possible
for modern economies to avoid the fact of life
that is finite resources?
The historic experience points to two important
factors in avoiding the limits to growth: First, it
is necessary that economies consist of a
structure of production which is flexible enough
to allow for substitution between scarce and
abundant forms of capital (“substitutability in
production”); and secondly, it is important for
technological change to occur in a form that
productivity is increased in the face of declining
resource throughputs (“resource augmenting”
technological progress). In the following, we
outline this rationale.
In initial stages of development, societies will
usually rely heavily upon natural resources, and
economies will consist of high levels of
throughput from the natural environment (in
the form of natural goods and services). Solow
(1974) argued that this is because these sorts of
societies are relying heavily upon natural capital
for the vast majority of their goods and services.
In this way Solow conceives of natural resources
as “the natural form of capital”. With increasing
development and growth, natural capital is
progressively transformed into other forms of
capital, namely physical, human and even social
forms of capital. This rebalancing of capital is
one of the important drivers of development.
For sustainability to occur, the Hartwick-Solow
rule stipulates that a society should “invest all
profits or rents from exhaustible resources in
reproducible capital” (Hartwick 1977). The
possibility for this process to endure indefinitely
depends on the extent to which physical capital
is substitutable for natural capital. Substitutable
natural capital together with the reinvestment
of capital (the so-called Hartwick-Solow rule) are
necessary but not sufficient conditions for
sustained growth. It is also necessary to
combine the conversion of capital stocks with
directed technological progress. Due to
decreasing returns to capital, growth will cease
in the absence of technological progress that is
able to secure increasing productivity from
reduced resource inputs (Smulders 2000).
What nature of technological progress is
required? It is necessary for increasing scarcities
to be reflected in increasing prices across time,
and that these price paths are foreseeable into
the indefinite future. When this is the case,
then the foreseen price paths of resource inputs
will be reflected in the forms of capital
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investments that will be chosen (Dasgupta and
Heal 1980). In short, a capital investment that is
expected to endure for many years into the
future must incorporate into its plan of
operations the cost of the resources upon which
it must rely.
This means that any foreseen resource scarcities
are not impediments to growth and production,
so long as these scarcities are reflected in the
prices of inputs that current plans for capital
investments incorporate. Directed technological
progress consists of building the current capital
stock around such future scarcities, so that the
path and direction of innovation anticipates
them fully.
How can sustainability of an economy go
wrong? It can head down the wrong path any
time that an important resource scarcity is not
reflected well in the prices of inputs. When
market prices do not reflect real scarcities well,
this phenomenon is known as market
imperfection often as the result of externalities.
In the presence of market imperfections,
governments must act to direct innovation
down the right path toward sustainability.
Governments can do so by means of two
different approaches to intervention: resource
management or innovation policy. Resource
management may be used to impose increased
prices upon (relatively low-priced) resource use.
For a restriction on the use of water in a place
where free access was previously the law will
raise the cost of access to users. The perceived
increased cost of access – generated through
resource management policies – will then be the
price path used to make current capital
investment decisions.
In this way resource management policies have
the implicit effect of inducing innovation in the
direction of sustainability. It encourages
investment in innovations that reduce use of the
newly priced resource, and in capital forms that
embed these innovations. So, resource
management can divert the economy from its
initial pollution-intensive growth path through
management (Stokey 1998) toward a greener
(i.e. less polluting) developmental path
(Smulders et al. 2005).
Is resource management adequate by itself for
the purpose of guiding an economy towards
sustainability? In an empirical analysis of
innovation in the automotive industry Aghion et
al. (2010) show that innovations react to price
signals but also that path dependency plays an
important role in determining the direction of
investments. Companies invest not only in
technology but also in a particular variety of
human capital that accompanies the applied
technologies. As a consequence, the earlier a
company switches to green technologies, the
less costly the transition will be. A company may
instead find itself locked into dirty technologies,
on account of fixed investments in associated
forms of capital. For this reason, inducing
change towards a Green Economy may require
government policies that enable firms to
respond to the price signals in resource
management.
Finally it is important to note that the prices of
resources are not always a matter of exclusive
domestic concern or control. When global
environmental goods such as climate change
mitigation are concerned, the scarcity of the
resource relies upon international cooperation
to be realised. Integrated Assessment Models
by Carraro, Bosetti and colleagues show that
under incomplete cooperation it becomes much
harder to reach global climate objectives if
important actors do not commit to reducing
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carbon emissions (Bosetti et al. 2011). Effective
resource management policies will often require
that the resources concerned are managed at
the level at which they exist (local, national,
regional, global).
Innovation Policy, Environment and
Growth
It was indicated above that there are two basic
areas of policy that might be used to address
problems of sustainability. In both areas of
policy the objective is to encourage the
attainment of sustainability through creating
incentives for investment in innovations in the
right direction. Resource management attempts
to do this by pricing resource scarcities
correctly, and thereby inducing innovations in
the direction of resource conservation.
Another area of policy that may be pursued is
that of directed innovation policy. In this
instance innovation is induced through
incentives other than resource pricing. How
else can innovation be induced in the direction
of sustainability?
The determinants of innovation are complex
and they depend in large part on national
circumstances and histories. The major
stimulants are market-based and include
relative prices, competition and demand
growth. The primary role of government policy
has historically included general human capital
(knowledge) and infrastructure support, fiscal
incentives, and IPR and competition policy.
Taken together, these national innovation policy
systems can be effective in driving innovation in
a particular direction.
To shift economies towards a Green Economy is
a complex issue that is distinct from some of the
great challenges to innovation encountered in
the past. Substantial innovation efforts then
were often conducted through large centrally
directed research programs such as the
“Manhattan or Apollo projects”. The innovation
efforts toward the atomic bomb or the moon
expedition were more concrete in terms of the
definition of the objectives as well as the means
of achieving them. An innovation policy
directed toward a Green Economy is a more
general and broad-based affair - coming from
various sectors and different types of
technologies. For example, a challenge like
climate change has no single technological
answer and the space of potential solutions is
large.
This also poses a distinct challenge involving the
trade-off between knowledge creation versus
diffusion. At the global level sustainable growth
is not just about knowledge creation but also
about its diffusion. Climate change problems
require that innovations, once they exist, are
also applied widely and not used by only a few
technology leaders. If governments wait for
economic incentives through scarcity prices to
kick in at the domestic level across the world,
technology adoption may be too slow.
Finally, much of the conventional wisdom about
innovation policy may not be applicable in the
case of Green Economy goals. Many innovation
policies are based upon notions of proprietary
or intellectual property rights, systems of laws
that confer exclusive market rights upon those
innovators who meet registration requirements.
The problem here is that such rights systems
(such as IPRs) may influence the rate but not the
direction of innovation. They only confer
incentives upon those innovators whose
innovations are sold within existing markets. If
there is no perceived need or demand for the
innovation, then no market (and hence no
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incentive to invest in it) will exist. For example,
an innovation that removes a pollutant from air
will not be created under an IPR system until the
government first intervenes to register the cost
of that pollutant (through resource
management policies for example).
In sum innovation policies are an interesting and
important supplement to the resource
management policies that drive the pursuit of
sustainability. Hence, direct investments or
incentive mechanisms (such as prizes and
subsidies) have been used to complement
resource policies in order to overcome problems
of path dependency and human capital under-
investment. Also, centralized innovation policies
can play a crucial role in the diffusion of
innovations when this is an equally important
part of the final objective. The pursuit of
sustainability may require some combination of
policies (resource management and direct
innovation) to fill the gaps left by the market.
Policy Intervention, Environment and
Competitiveness
Why might it benefit a particular country to
pursue the attainment of a Green Economy? In
the first instance, it would appear that resource
management policies might constrain an
economy and reduce growth, but management
also unfolds second order effects through the
change of incentives and the direction of
innovation. Porter and Van der Linde (1995)
have argued that the benefits from induced
innovation can outweigh the static effects – the
so-called Porter effect.
There are two reasons why resource
management might be important to the
competitiveness of a national economy. First,
there is the possibility that appropriate resource
management and innovation policies may
induce investments and innovation that may
result in the country achieving “technological
leadership” (Porter and Van der Linde 1995).
Technological leadership can result when a state
is able to secure innovations (and associated
proprietary rights) that enable that state to
acquire rents from its leadership. This has
occurred in the case of Denmark and wind
turbines (in the 1990s) and in the case of Japan
and hybrid engine and catalytic converter
technologies (in the 1970s-1990s). Both
instances represent countries that embarked
upon costly resource management and
innovation programs early, and then benefited
when other states needed to license their
proprietary technology.
A related phenomenon is “policy leadership”.
This occurs when a state adopts a particular
resource management policy that is later
adopted by many others, resulting in national
investment responses similar to the initial
adopters. Here the technological leadership is
a direct result of making a particular policy
move first, rather than the general desirability
of the technology involved (Kern et al. 2001),
(Jänicke and Jacob 2004).
Box 1: Biofuel Production in Brazil
Brazil is currently a global leader in
producing ethanol-based biofuels and many
countries are now following suit in order to
reduce their dependency on petroleum-
based fuels. The success of a large-scale
biofuel program in Brazil has been largely
driven by the government’s support of the
ethanol industry in the wake of the oil crisis
in the early 1970s which coincided with the
collapse of sugar prices. As an attempt to
reduce its dependency on foreign fuel and
to increase growth and stability of sugar
production, President Ernesto Geisel
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launched the National Alcohol Program
(Proalcool) in 1975. This program aimed to
reduce demand for imported fuel by
supplementing gasoline with alcohol. It has
since become the largest bioenergy
program in the world.
Government policies played a large role in
encouraging biofuel use, fuelling further
expansion of the ethanol industry. They
include, for instance, tax benefits for
alcohol-run cars and a ceiling on ethanol
prices (up to 65% of gasoline prices). The
government has also established high
minimum ethanol fuel blend requirements
and ordered that ethanol be available at all
fuelling stations. In order to encourage the
auto industry to get on board with the
country’s biofuel initiatives, the government
provided support for car companies to
manufacture vehicles that could use ethanol
rather than gasoline for fuel. By the end of
1980, cars that could run on alcohol
accounted for 73% of the total car sales.
A technological advancement was further
fuelled by the invention of the flex fuel car
in 2003 which had a huge impact on the
biofuel industry. Owners of these vehicles
could alter the ratio of ethanol to petroleum
that they use to power their cars in order to
adapt to fluctuating prices of oil and sugar.
As a result, the changes in prices of
petroleum no longer affect the production
of alcohol-run cars. Approximately 90% of
the automobiles being produced in Brazil
today are dual fuel.
The expansion of the biofuel industry
however raised concern that the industry
could offset its carbon savings through
deforestation. Sugarcane production would
need to increase to meet increasing ethanol
demands with significant implications for
deforestation.
Why did Brazil succeed in transitioning to
biofuels while other countries that were
also affected by the 1970s oil crisis
remained reliant on petroleum? The case of
Brazilian biofuels demonstrates that the
country’s intention to manage resources
and find alternative energy sources resulted
in “policy leadership” as well as
“technological leadership” for innovation.
In general, these case studies demonstrate that
countries that undertake leadership in particular
resource policies can also achieve leadership in
investments, innovations, and finally transfers
of the associated technologies. Such policies, if
properly designed, induce domestic companies
to innovate which may provide them with a
competitive edge (first mover advantage) vis-à-
vis their competitors.
When identifying opportunities and designing
policies for inducing innovation, governments
should be extremely careful: The exercise of
forecasting future resource scarcities is an
exercise in speculation. Forecasting the future
is always uncertain and never without risk.
Nevertheless, the point of investing in a Green
Economy is to recognize those resource
scarcities that are clear, unavoidable and
(currently) un-priced, and to be one of the first
to build these unavoidable scarcities into the
economy.
Green Economies and Developing
Economies
For most emerging markets and developing
countries, the competitiveness benefits from
the Green Economy are not about innovation at
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the frontier and capturing rents from first mover
advantages. For most new technologies,
research in developing countries cannot
compete with innovation activity in developed
countries. But does this mean that there is no
benefit for developing countries from directing
their economies towards a sustainable growth
path? On the contrary, we believe that
developing countries should invest in their
capacity to adapt green technologies to their
countries and, hence, to become receptive to
the benefits of green innovation.
It makes sense for developing countries to be
able to adapt rapidly to changes occurring at the
technological frontier. If they do not, developing
country companies may find themselves locked
into obsolete technologies and capital stocks.
This in turn renders their economies less
competitive due to inefficiencies and
incompatibilities with what is happening in
other markets.
The creation of an innovation does not
automatically lead to its diffusion. The creation
of knowledge and its diffusion often are two
very different systems, and different policies
may be required to address both. For example,
for many years agriculture has been progressing
at the frontier under a private system of
proprietary rights, while the diffusion of these
innovations has occurred via public extension
systems (government agencies, universities and
research institutes). Policies are necessary to
address diffusion just as much as creation.
Developing countries benefit enormously from
technological transfer and diffusion, and will
benefit greatly from gearing their economies
towards this. For countries which are not at the
technology frontier, foreign technology
accounts for more than 90 % of productivity
increases (Keller 2004).
Diffusion must be aided through appropriately
structured government interventions. To benefit
from the diffusion of technologies, developing
countries need to invest in their capacity to
adapt technologies to their respective local
settings. Local conditions can create a
resistance to the flow of information and
innovation into local economies (Ruttan and
Hayami 1973). And it is important to recognize
that diffusion is about the adaptation of
innovations as much as it is about adoption.
Diffusion has the dual role of not just spreading
innovations but also to enable firms to identify,
assimilate and exploit existing local knowledge
(Cohen and Levinthal 1989).
What are the conditions that enable
diffusion of innovations to flow smoothly
across nations?
First, as mentioned before, proprietary rights
(such as IPR systems) have the positive benefit
of encouraging innovation at the frontier but
can do so at the cost of reduced transmission of
information off of the frontier. It is important
for firms that hold proprietary rights to invest in
their diffusion, and this does not always occur.
In this instance, it may be important for public
systems to coexist with proprietary ones in
order to enable diffusion and licensing.
How can individual developing countries
enhance their own chances of success – in
capturing some share of the flow of
innovations? Trajtenberg (2009) outlines key
policies, emphasising investments in human
capital and the encouragement of capital
markets. In addition, an openness to global
technology markets and general foreign direct
investment is crucial. This also extends to the
acquisition of lower-cost second-tier
technologies. Rapid technology diffusion and
adaptation (market transformation) among
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otherwise competitive firms should be
encouraged. Furthermore, policy makers should
facilitate information flows about promising
areas of science and engineering and put in
place incentives to build up R&D capacity in
local enterprises (Odagiri et al. 2010).
In sum, the goal of developing countries in
regard to garnering the competitiveness
advantages of the Green Economy should
probably place most emphasis upon policies
targeting the diffusion of technological change,
i.e. the adaptation and use of information flows
from innovations that are occurring elsewhere.
This is in itself no small task, and it may require
far more complex policy interventions than for
innovation itself. Investments in human capital,
information flow, and general financial and
technological development are important. In
this way developing countries can benefit from
capturing their shares of the flow of information
emanating from the frontiers.
Trade and Investment Policy, State
Intervention and Innovation
International trade and investment regulations
have been put in place for good reasons and can
foster the Green Economy by providing a solid
and secure context for flows of innovation and
investment.
One of the most important roles which
international law plays in fostering green
investment (and investment in general) is to
ensure a certain business environment.
Certainty regarding trade and investment
regulation is particularly important to the Green
Economy due to the interlinked and global
supply chains in sustainable energy goods and
services. For example, new technologies such as
renewable energies may require a high upfront
investment. The globalisation of the supply
chains allows firms to leverage cost-advantages
in production and to keep prices for equipment
and services at low world market prices.
At the same time, in international trade law,
there is also a set of rules that places constraints
on the policy instruments that might be used to
support the transformation towards a Green
Economy. There are three set of constraints
which have to be considered in designing
policies: 1) The non-discrimination principle, 2)
government procurement regulation and, 3)
rules regarding subsidies. To give an example,
the EU now imposes land use standards on
biofuel imports that apply to EU biofuel
production. This is admissible as long as the
same standards are imposed on EU production
as well as foreign production alike and hence
there is no discrimination between domestic
and foreign firms.
The more problematic proscriptions under WTO
rules are the ones regulating public
procurement and public subsidies favoring
national industries. As we have indicated
throughout this Policy Brief, many of the
innovation policies that are well-designed for a
Green Economy involve investments in specific
industries. For example, it may be important to
invest in particular supply chains or human
capital development in order to foster a given
industry. It is not clear whether such
investments in carefully selected industries are
in violation of trade rules, but it is not always
clear that they are not. It will be important for
international institutions to recognise and
address the potential conflicts built into the
objectives of innovation policy and trade policy.
In sum, it is important for Green Economy
strategies to take into account the legal realities
of the trading system and to design policies
which as compatible as is possible with WTO
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regulations. At the same time it is important to
recognize that policies that are built around
composite goals (such as innovation,
environment and economic growth) must
necessarily involve built-in trade-offs between
these multiple objectives. International
institutions will have to come to deal with these
more complex policy environments.
Conclusion: Policy
Recommendations
Developed and developing countries can both
benefit from the Green Economy but the ways
in which they can benefit from directing their
economies toward a sustainable growth path
are likely to differ. The different objectives also
translate into substantially different policy
recommendations for developed and
developing countries.
How should developed countries invest in
the Green Economy?
Resource management policies are the first
policy objective in pursuit of the Green Economy
in developed countries. This is done by
anticipating future resource scarcities, and
“getting the prices right” as early as possible.
Through appropriate resource pricing, countries
can benefit from first mover advantages by
directing their economies towards green
innovation by anticipating future resource
scarcities. If governments can anticipate either
what the correct resource scarcity values will be
or anticipate in which direction environmental
regulation will develop in the future, they can
enable domestic firms to be one step ahead by
imposing the future scarcity value on their
industries today. Companies will then
incorporate those scarcity values in their
investment decisions, including investment in
research and development. For this reason,
environmental regulation can induce innovation
which may turn into a competitive edge for the
domestic industries.
Directed innovation policy can be an equally
important part of the policy environment in
achieving the advantages of the Green
Economy. Targeted prizes, contests, or
investments can be crucial for reaching a
particular target or to relieve a particular
constraint. Most experts recommend that policy
makers consider a combined policy of resource
management and innovation in order to achieve
a Green Economy advantage.
How should developing countries invest in
the Green Economy?
Diffusion (technology transfer) is the key to
success in developing countries. Most of the
technology applied in developing countries
diffuses from abroad. Therefore, developing
countries should invest in their capacity to
adapt innovations to their local contexts and
become receptive to green innovation and
benefit through its diffusion.
Early adoption can be useful for developing
countries. The absence of environmental
regulation can distort the local markets towards
dirty technologies. Due to path dependence
(sunk costs), firms in such countries may get
locked into an inferior production technology
that is difficult to alter.
Developing countries thus benefit from seeing
the Green Economy as the economy of the
future, and learning (and investing) to reach it
as soon as possible. In this way these countries
stand the least chance of being left behind.
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Policy Recommendations – Institutions
It is important that all policy makers work
together for the purpose of encouraging both
innovation and diffusion. In some contexts there
can be conflicts between these two objectives,
and these conflicts need to be both recognised
and addressed. This can be done by a strategy
of combining policies, e.g. proprietary rights for
innovation and public sector investments for
diffusion, or it can be done by recognising the
inherent trade-offs between them, and
choosing a policy that balances both objectives
(some compromise between innovation and
diffusion).
It is particularly important for international
institutions to recognise that single-policy
objectives are no longer the best (or probably
possible) way to progress. Composite national
policies that target some combination of
objectives (environmental, growth, innovation,
development) are the most likely way forward
in the future. It is important that the
international institutional environment evolve in
order to recognise that such complexity and
trade-offs exist within the policy-making
environment, in order to accommodate its
further development.
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Bibliography and Further Reading
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Cohen, W. and D. Levinthal (1989). Innovation
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Hall, B. and B. Khan (2003). Adoption of new
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Trajtenberg, M. (2009). Innovation policy for
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