Executive Summary - AgroGeneration...previous months. This current account improvement was due to a...
Transcript of Executive Summary - AgroGeneration...previous months. This current account improvement was due to a...
December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk
Edilberto L. Segura
Translator: Ieliena Segura Copyright SigmaBleyzer 2017
Editor: Rina Bleyzer O’Malley All rights reserved
1
Executive Summary
After holding a short ceasefire from the end of December 2017, in the third week of January 2018, Russian backed
separatists re-started their attacks against Ukrainian militants. Russian involvement in the conflict in Ukraine has
become a major concern of the US government. The US Secretary of Defense recently implied that Russia’s intention
to impose Russian-friendly authoritarian regimes was the major challenge to the US, above international terrorism.
The reform agenda in Ukraine is hindered by slow progress in fighting corruption and in judiciary system reform.
Significant progress in these areas are needed to secure international assistance and pave the way for a higher growth.
As a part of these reforms, Ukraine is expected to pass a law on the establishment of an Anti-Corruption Court.
High-frequency monthly data show that Ukraine’s economic activity has continued to improve, thought at uneven rates.
In November 2017, Ukrainian construction output expanded by 10.7% yoy, retail trade increased by 6.8% yoy, and
passenger turnover grew by 3.6% yoy. Ukraine's industrial sector also continued its slow recovery with a growth rate of
0.3% yoy. Mining activities continued to be depressed, with coal and lignite dropping by -13% yoy. On the other hand,
in November Ukraine manufacturing grew by 3.0% yoy.
The consolidated fiscal budget (state and local) for the month of November showed a surplus of UAH 4.1billion,
reducing the cumulative fiscal surplus from the beginning of the year to UAH 33.9 billion (or a surplus of about
1.2% of period GDP).
Consumer inflation decelerated from 14.6% yoy in October to 13.6% in November. At the same time, core inflation
further expanded, reaching 8.6% yoy.
In the banking sector, bank deposits in November continued to increase, expanding by 10.9% yoy for Hryvnia deposits
and by 5.4% yoy for foreign currency deposits. On the lending side, loans in Hryvnias expanded by 8.1% yoy, whereas
loans in foreign exchange declined by 12.7%. The growth of money supply in November was 8.1% yoy.
The UAH/USD exchange rate remained stable during the first half of December. However, excessive expenditures of
the State Treasury related to state budget execution together with large VAT reimbursement to exporters, and increased
dollar demand by importers led to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate on December 14th-18th. As a result,
the UAH/USD exchange rate depreciated to 28.1 UAH per USD by the end of December.
In November 2017, Ukraine’s current account showed a small surplus of USD 18 million compared to large deficits in
previous months. This current account improvement was due to a higher growth rate in exports (11.0% mom) than in
imports (3.9% mom). In January-November 2017, the cumulative deficit of the current account amounted to USD 3
billion (or 3% of period GDP). Since net financial inflows amounted to USD 450 million in November, they allowed
international reserves to increase to USD 18.9 billion by the end of November 2017 (3.7 month of the future imports).
Main Macroeconomic Indicators 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f
GDP, USD billion 173 180 130 87 93.4 104 110
Real GDP Growth, % yoy 0.2 0.0 -6.6 -9.9 2.3 2.2 3.0
Fiscal Balance (incl. Naftogaz/Pension Fund),% of GDP -5.5 -6.5 -11.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.6 -2.5
Public Debt, External and Domestic, % of GDP 36.6 40.4 69.4 79.1 81.2 80.0 78.0
Consumer Inflation, eop, % yoy -0.2 0.5 24.9 43.3 12.4 12.5 8.0
Hryvnia Exchange Rate per USD, eop 8.1 8.2 15.8 24.0 27.0 28.1 30.0
Current Account Balance, % of GDP -8.3 -9.0 -4.1 -0.2 -4.1 -3.2 -3.5
FDI, Net Annual Inflow, USD billion 7.2 4.1 0.3 2.3 3.4 3.0 5.0
International Reserves, USD billion 24.5 20.4 7.5 13.3 15.5 18.9 21.0
Public External Debt, USD billion 32.1 31.7 34.9 42.6 42.5 47.0 52.0
Private External Debt, USD billion 102.3 110.3 91.2 76.0 69.9 65.0 72.0
December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk Edilberto L. Segura
Headquarters Kyiv Office, Ukraine Kharkiv Office, Ukraine
123 N. Post Oak Ln., Suite 410 4A, Baseyna Street, «Mandarin Plaza», 8th floor Meytin House, 49 Sumska Street, Office 4
Houston, TX 77024 USA Kyiv 01004, Ukraine Kharkiv 61022, Ukraine
Tel: +1 (713) 621-3111 Tel: +38 (044) 284-1289 Tel: +38 (057) 714-1180
Fax: +1 (713) 621-4666 Fax: +38 (044) 284-1283 Fax: +38 (057) 714-1188
Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
2
Political and Reform Developments
After holding a short ceasefire from the end of December 2017, in the third week of January 2018, Russian
backed separatists re-started their attacks against Ukrainian militants and civilians in the Donetsk region.
Although the intensity of attacks is lower compared to the fall of the previous year, there were several deaths
among Ukrainian army forces. Thanks to significant efforts made by Ukrainian team in the Minsk’s negotiations
for the release of Ukrainian militants imprisoned in Donetsk and Luhansk, an exchange of people took place at
the end of December. Almost one hundred Ukrainians – including civilians who were assisting the Ukrainian
army – were released from Donetsk prisons and camps. In exchange the Ukrainian side released several hundred
separatists – including Russian citizens – who were caught during military actions in the Eastern part of the
country.
Russian involvement in the conflict in Ukraine has become a major concern of the US government. The US
Secretary of Defense recently implied that Russia’s intention to impose Russian-friendly authoritarian regimes
was the major challenge to the US, above international terrorism. The urgent need to introduce a special UN
military forces in the conflict zone is in the agenda of the Western leaders. In December, this was reconfirmed
by the EU and the US while they re-continuing sanctions against Russia. Moreover, the US Senate has now
voted in favor of providing Ukraine with lethal weapons to ensure the country’s security.
The reform agenda in Ukraine is hindered by slow progress in fighting corruption and in judiciary system reform.
Significant progress in these areas are needed to secure international assistance and pave the way for a higher
level of economic growth. Recent appointment of the Supreme Court of Ukraine members took place with a high
rate of participation of the Ukrainian civil society. It gave an opportunity to insert into this body highly educated
new-comers non-from-the-old-system. Nevertheless some questionable candidates were appointed.
As a part of the judicial system reform and fighting corruption, Ukraine is expected to pass a law on the
establishment of an Anti-Corruption Court. It was a part of the requirements from both Ukrainian civil society
and international partners including the EU, IMF and the World Bank. The draft law submitted to Verhovna
Rada by President Poroshenko was criticized by all stakeholders since the independence of the court was not
assured. There is broad agreement that the draft law should be re-drafted. A number of changes should be
introduced into the draft law to make it in line with the requirements of Ukrainian civil society, the Venice
Commission, EU, IMF World Bank and the US. The approval of a satisfactory law would be an important step
in improving the country’s business environment.
Economic Growth
According to the latest release of the State
Statistics Committee, in the third quarter of
2017, real GDP grew by 2.1% yoy, compared
to an increase of 2.3% yoy in the third quarter
of 2016. The mayor sources of GDP growth
were gross capital formation, which increased
by 7.6% yoy (compared to 35.8% yoy in Q3
2016), household consumption and general
government expenditures, which grew by
5.4% yoy and 4.3% yoy, respectively
(compared to 4.7% yoy and 2.0% yoy in Q3
2016).
Expenditure side of the Gross Domestic Product, % yoy (To corresponding quarter of previous year)
Source: State Statistics Committee, The Bleyzer Foundation
-20.7
-28.1
-19.3
-13
-2.2
4 4.70.9 2.8
6.9 5.42.7
-5.9
-1.7
8.12.7
-1.5
2
-2.2
4.2
-7.8
4.36.8 4.7 6.1
15.811.9
22.5
35.8
79
11.7
21.5
7.6
-26.1-22.1
-10.8-5.8 -4.1 -7.2
-3.7
9.7
-0.4 -2.1
6.9
-19.8
-32.1
-18.2 -17.3 -3.6
-0.1
16.119.6
2.94.6
13.2-17.0 -14.7
-7.2
-1.4 0.1
1.5 2.3
4.8
2.5 2.3 2.1
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
І q ІI q ІII q IV q І q ІI q ІII q IV q І q ІI q ІII q
2015 2016 2017
Consumption of householdsGovernment expenditureInvestment (Gross capital formation)Exports of goods and servicesImports of goods and servicesGDP
December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk Edilberto L. Segura
Headquarters Kyiv Office, Ukraine Kharkiv Office, Ukraine
123 N. Post Oak Ln., Suite 410 4A, Baseyna Street, «Mandarin Plaza», 8th floor Meytin House, 49 Sumska Street, Office 4
Houston, TX 77024 USA Kyiv 01004, Ukraine Kharkiv 61022, Ukraine
Tel: +1 (713) 621-3111 Tel: +38 (044) 284-1289 Tel: +38 (057) 714-1180
Fax: +1 (713) 621-4666 Fax: +38 (044) 284-1283 Fax: +38 (057) 714-1188
Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
3
On the supply side of GDP, the sectors that
showed the largest recovery were the construction
sector, which expanded by 25.2% yoy; financial
and insurance activities, which increased by 8.7%
yoy; real estate activities (by 6.8% yoy);
information and communication (by 6.4 yoy);
transportation and storage (by 6.3 yoy); and
wholesale and retail trade sectors (by 5.7% yoy).
On the other hand, the following subsectors
continued to have negative rates of GDP growth in
Q3 2017: mining and quarrying production (-6.5%
yoy); education (-5.9% yoy); electricity, gas,
steam and air conditioning supply (-5.1% yoy);
public administration, defense and social security
sectors (-3.6% yoy); water supply, sewerage and
waste management (-2.6% yoy); arts,
entertainment with recreation (-2.2% yoy); and
agriculture (-0.1% yoy).
High-frequency monthly data shows that Ukraine’s
economic activity has continued to improve,
thought at uneven rates. In November 2017,
Ukrainian construction output expanded by 10.7%
yoy, retail trade increased by 6.8% yoy, and
passenger turnover grew by 3.6% yoy.
Nevertheless, agriculture production, and freight
turnover continued to show negative signs of -13%
yoy and -1% yoy, respectively. Ukrainian industrial
production expanded by 0.3% yoy thanks to a rise
of manufacturing output by 3% yoy, while coal and
lignite fell down by 13% yoy in November 2017.
Within manufacturing, the following subsectors had
significant growth rates in November: chemicals
(46.1% yoy), pharmaceutical products (18.9% yoy),
rubber and plastic (6.8% yoy), textile (4.5%yoy),
engineering (3.6% yoy), and metallurgy (2.7% yoy).
However, the sectors that had negative
performances were coke and oil refining (-7.6%
yoy), electricity production (-6.4% yoy) and food
processing (-1.1% yoy).
Regarding regional production growth, the oblasts
with the largest expansion in industrial output in
November 2017 were Ternopil (23% yoy); Rivne
(14.4% yoy); Ivano-Frankivsk (14.2% yoy); Chernivtsi (14% yoy); Lviv (12.3% yoy); Zakarpattya (11.1% yoy);
and Khmelnytskiy (7.3% yoy). On the other hand, negative rates of growth in industrial output were experienced
in Luhansk (-41.0% yoy), Mikolayiv (-11.1% yoy), Donetsk (-10.3% yoy), and Zaporizhzhya (-5.2% yoy).
Industrial Production by Regions, % yoy (To corresponding month of previous year)
Source: State Statistics Committee, The Bleyzer Foundation
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan
uary
Feb
rua
ry
Marc
h
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ober
No
vem
ber
Dec
ember
Jan
uary
Feb
rua
ry
Marc
h
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ober
No
vem
ber
Dec
ember
Jan
uary
Feb
rua
ry
Marc
h
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gust
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ober
No
vem
ber
2015 2016 2017
Kiev Odessa VolynDnipropetrovsk Ukraine KarpathyDonetsk Lugansk Kharkiv
Industrial Production by Sectors, % yoy (To corresponding month of previous year)
Source: State Statistics Committee, The Bleyzer Foundation
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70J
an
ua
ry
Feb
ru
ary
Ma
rch
Ap
ril
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
gu
st
Sep
tem
ber
Octo
ber
No
vem
ber
Decem
ber
Jan
ua
ry
Feb
ru
ary
Ma
rch
Ap
ril
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
gu
st
Sep
tem
ber
Octo
ber
No
vem
ber
Decem
ber
Jan
ua
ry
Feb
ru
ary
Ma
rch
Ap
ril
Ma
y
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
gu
st
Sep
tem
ber
Octo
ber
No
vem
ber
2015 2016 2017
Food processing Chemicals Metallurgy
Machine-building Electricity Pharmacy
Electricity, gas, steam Manufacturing Industry
Ukraine Economic Performance by Sector, % yoy (To corresponding month of previous year)
Source: The Bleyzer Foundation
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
Jan
uar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gu
st
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ob
er
No
vem
ber
Dec
emb
er
Jan
uar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gu
st
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ob
er
No
vem
ber
Dec
emb
er
Jan
uar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gu
st
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ob
er
No
vem
ber
2015 2016 2017
Agricultural production indeхIndustrial production indexIndex of construction outputRetail trade turnover
December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk Edilberto L. Segura
Headquarters Kyiv Office, Ukraine Kharkiv Office, Ukraine
123 N. Post Oak Ln., Suite 410 4A, Baseyna Street, «Mandarin Plaza», 8th floor Meytin House, 49 Sumska Street, Office 4
Houston, TX 77024 USA Kyiv 01004, Ukraine Kharkiv 61022, Ukraine
Tel: +1 (713) 621-3111 Tel: +38 (044) 284-1289 Tel: +38 (057) 714-1180
Fax: +1 (713) 621-4666 Fax: +38 (044) 284-1283 Fax: +38 (057) 714-1188
Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
4
Fiscal Policy
In November, the state budget saw another
surplus (amounting to UAH 4.1 billion)
stimulated by monthly increase in revenues and
declines in expenditures. At the same time,
local budgets were executed with the
cumulative deficit of UAH 1.4 billion. Thus the
consolidated budget was in surplus of UAH 2.7
billion in November, expanding the cumulative
surplus from the beginning of the year to UAH
33.9 billion (about 1.2% of period GDP).
Despite some monthly increase, state budget
revenues reversed their year-over-year trend.
They decline by 3.6% yoy because of negative
developments in nontax revenues. Growth of tax revenues continued to decelerate (to 13.8% yoy). This was
related to customs experiment within which over UAH 2 billion were transferred from the general fund of the
state budget to the special fund of local budgets. Also, it was related to increased VAT reimbursements
significantly exceeding the average monthly size of reimbursements in 2017 and being almost twice as high as
in November 2016. The cumulative consolidated budget revenues saw some deceleration in growth to 33.3%
yoy in January-November.
Following a monthly decline, state budget
expenditures experienced significant deceleration
of year-over-year growth to 12.5% yoy. This was
the result of significant decrease in expenditures
on domestic debt servicing after restructureing of
sovereign bonds in the NBU’s portfolio. At the
same time, growth of expenditures on goods and
services, on current transfers, and on capital
expenditures significantly decelerated. On the
other hand, growth of state budget expenditures
was supported by faster increase in payroll and
social security expenditures. Cumulative
consolidated budget expenditures grew at a pace
of 23.5% yoy in January-November.
Monetary Policy
Inflation. As expected, consumer inflation decelerated in November to 13.6% yoy but remained above the
forecast level. Core inflation, on the contrary, accelerated to 8.6% yoy. Faster growth of prices of foodstuffs,
transport, communication, hotels and restaurants as well as exchange rate depreciation were the major reasons
of consumer inflation being above the forecast. Slower growth in prices of housing and utilities as compared to
the previous month (10.3% yoy vs 15.3% yoy) was the major driver of deceleration in consumer price growth
in November. Other major groups of goods and services, including foodstuffs, saw little changes in prices.
Taking into account recent consumer prices developments and common price trend in December we expect
consumer inflation to be around 13-13.5% yoy in 2017.
CPI, PPI, and Growth of Prices for Select Goods and
Services, % yoy
Source: State Statistical Service of Ukraine, The Bleyzer Foundation
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Sep
Oct
Nov
2016 2017
CPIPPIFoodstuffs and nonalcoholic beveragesWearing apparel and footwearHousing and utilitiesHome appliancesHealthcareTransport
Dynamics of consolidated budget components
(from the beginning of the year)
Source: The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, The Bleyzer Foundation
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
2016 2017
Balance, bln (right scale)
Revenues, % yoy (left scale)
Expenditures, % yoy (left scale)
December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk Edilberto L. Segura
Headquarters Kyiv Office, Ukraine Kharkiv Office, Ukraine
123 N. Post Oak Ln., Suite 410 4A, Baseyna Street, «Mandarin Plaza», 8th floor Meytin House, 49 Sumska Street, Office 4
Houston, TX 77024 USA Kyiv 01004, Ukraine Kharkiv 61022, Ukraine
Tel: +1 (713) 621-3111 Tel: +38 (044) 284-1289 Tel: +38 (057) 714-1180
Fax: +1 (713) 621-4666 Fax: +38 (044) 284-1283 Fax: +38 (057) 714-1188
Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
5
Banking Sector. Bank deposits expanded at an accelerated pace in November. Households were the driving
force of growth in national currency deposits, while corporate sector ensured faster expansion of the foreign
currency deposits denominated in USD. In
particular, household national currency deposits
grew by 13.5% yoy compensating for deceleration
in growth of corporate national currency deposits to
3.7% yoy. At the same time, corporate foreign
currency deposits denominated in USD grew by
15.3% yoy more than compensating for a 2.0% yoy
decline of said deposits in the household sector.
Overall, in November national currency deposits
expanded by 10.9% yoy, while foreign currency
deposits in USD rose by 5.4% yoy.
In November, bank lending activities continued to
improve. Total national currency loans grew by
8.1% yoy. Nevertheless, this is 6.1 percentage
points less than a month ago, because of sharp
deceleration in hryvnia loans growth in the
corporate sector, whose growth rate dropped from
13.4% yoy to just 0.3% yoy. This was partly offset by acceleration in growth of the household national currency
loans by 2.6 percentage points to 26.2% yoy. The situation with the foreign currency loans denominated in USD
was the opposite, with overall foreign currency loans denominated in USD declining by 12.7% yoy.
The monetary base saw deceleration in growth in
both monthly terms (to 0.6%) and year-over-year
terms (to 5.9%). This happened because decrease in
balances at correspondent accounts of banks
partially offset growth in cash resources. Money
supply edged up by 0.4% mom because of moderate
increase in cash outside banks and in deposits. At
the same time, the over-year growth of money
supply accelerated to 8.1% yoy.
Hryvnia Exchange Rate. The UAH/USD
exchange rate remained stable during the first half
of December. However, excessive expenditures of
the State Treasury related to state budget execution
together with large VAT reimbursement to
exporters, and increased dollar demand by
importers led to a significant depreciation of the
exchange rate on December 14th-18th. In particular, higher expenditures of the Treasury and VAT
reimbursements increased the cash balances at the correspondent accounts of commercial banks in the NBU to
the record high levels during the period. But banks usually transfer their excessive hryvnia cash resources into
dollars. Increased demand for dollar on the side of importers is a common seasonal trend as the demand for
imported goods increases on the eve of the New Year holidays. The NBU made several dollar interventions in
the interbank forex market and managed to significantly slow depreciation by the end of the month. Overall, the
exchange rate depreciated by around 1% to 28.10 UAH/USD.
Dynamics of the Average Weighted UAH/USD
Exchange Rate in the Interbank Forex Market
Source: The NBU, The Bleyzer Foundation
24.00
24.50
25.00
25.50
26.00
26.50
27.00
27.50
28.00
28.50
12-01-16
01-01-17
02-01-17
03-01-17
04-01-17
05-01-17
06-01-17
07-01-17
08-01-17
09-01-17
10-01-17
11-01-17
12-01-17
Dynamics of Money Supply, Deposits, and Loans,
% yoy
Source: The NBU, The Bleyzer Foundation
-30-25-20-15-10
-505
10152025
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
2016 2017Money supply Hryvnia deposits FX deposits in USDHryvnia loans FX loans in USD
December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk Edilberto L. Segura
Headquarters Kyiv Office, Ukraine Kharkiv Office, Ukraine
123 N. Post Oak Ln., Suite 410 4A, Baseyna Street, «Mandarin Plaza», 8th floor Meytin House, 49 Sumska Street, Office 4
Houston, TX 77024 USA Kyiv 01004, Ukraine Kharkiv 61022, Ukraine
Tel: +1 (713) 621-3111 Tel: +38 (044) 284-1289 Tel: +38 (057) 714-1180
Fax: +1 (713) 621-4666 Fax: +38 (044) 284-1283 Fax: +38 (057) 714-1188
Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
6
International Trade and Capital
According to the latest NBU’s report, Ukraine’s
current account showed a surplus of USD 18 million
in November 2017, compared to a deficit of USD -
315 million in November 2016. Hence, in January-
November 2017, the cumulative deficit of the
current account amounted to USD 3 billion (or 3%
of period GDP).
The November 2017 current account improvement
was due to a reduction in the deficit in merchandise
trade from USD -713 million in October to USD -
450 million in November, due to a faster rate of
growth of merchandise exports (11% mom) than
imports (3.9% mom). In a similar manner,
Ukrainian net service trade showed higher increase
in exports (by 5.6% mom), than in imports (2.9%
mom). At the same time, the surpluses in the
balances in net primary and secondary incomes
showed short increases of USD 119 million and USD 349 million, respectively.
On a year-to-year basis, merchandise exports increased by 17.3% yoy, reaching USD 3,945 million in November
2017. The merchandise products that had the largest export growth included: machinery and equipment, which
expanded by 83.4% yoy (USD 440.5 million, 11.2% share of total exports), ferrous and nonferrous metals which
increased by 50.8% yoy (USD 1.1 billion, with 27% share); industrial goods which raised by 31.7% yoy (USD
53.3 million, with a share of 1.4%), chemical products by 30.7% yoy (USD 199.8 million, with a share of 5.1%),
and mineral products increased by 17.8% yoy (USD 270.8 million, with a share of 6.9% of exports). On the
other hand, Ukrainian agriculture products export fell down by -2.8% yoy to USD 1.7 billion.
On the import side, the largest share of imported products in November were as follows: machinery and
equipment, with a share of 27% of total imports (USD 1.28 billion, growing by 20.6% yoy); mineral products,
with 26% share (USD 1.23 bln, 25.9% yoy); chemicals products, with a 18% share (USD 862 million, 22.7%
yoy), and agricultural products, with a share of 10% (USD 471 million, 31.3% yoy).
Regarding the geographical orientation of exports, in
January-November 2017, Ukrainian exports to
Europe expanded by 32.7% yoy to USD 13.1 billion
and now represent 36.1% of the total exports share. At
the same time, exports to the Russian Federation
declined by 0.6% to a share of 8.5% the total exports.
Asia foreign trade fell with Ukraine by -2.2% to a
32.6% share of the total amounts exported.
In November the financial accounts inflows amounted
of USD 478 million. As a result, international reserves
increased to USD 18.9 billion, enough for 3.7 months
of future import requirements.
Ukraine's External Balance of Payments,
million USD
Source: NBU, the Bleyzer Foundation
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
*
No
v*
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
Jul
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
2015 2016 2017
Financial account, left scale, $ mln USD
Current account, left scale, $ mln USD
Overall Balance of Payments, $ mln USD
Exports of goods and services, right scale, $ mln USD
Import of goods and services, right scale, $ mln USD
Ukraine's International Reserve, million USD
Source: NBU, the Bleyzer Foundation
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Janu
ary
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gu
st
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ober
No
vem
ber
Dec
ember
Janu
ary
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gu
st
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ober
No
vem
ber
Dec
ember
Janu
ary
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gu
st
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ober
No
vem
ber
Dec
ember
Janu
ary
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gu
st
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ober
No
vem
ber
Dec
ember
2014 2015 2016 2017
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Golg Foreign currency reservesOfficial reserve assets SDRs (left scale)