Executive Summary - AgroGeneration...previous months. This current account improvement was due to a...

6
December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk Edilberto L. Segura Translator: Ieliena Segura Copyright SigmaBleyzer 2017 Editor: Rina Bleyzer O’Malley All rights reserved 1 Executive Summary After holding a short ceasefire from the end of December 2017, in the third week of January 2018, Russian backed separatists re-started their attacks against Ukrainian militants. Russian involvement in the conflict in Ukraine has become a major concern of the US government. The US Secretary of Defense recently implied that Russia’s intention to impose Russian-friendly authoritarian regimes was the major challenge to the US, above international terrorism. The reform agenda in Ukraine is hindered by slow progress in fighting corruption and in judiciary system reform. Significant progress in these areas are needed to secure international assistance and pave the way for a higher growth. As a part of these reforms, Ukraine is expected to pass a law on the establishment of an Anti-Corruption Court. High-frequency monthly data show that Ukraine’s economic activity has continued to improve, thought at uneven rates. In November 2017, Ukrainian construction output expanded by 10.7% yoy, retail trade increased by 6.8% yoy, and passenger turnover grew by 3.6% yoy. Ukraine's industrial sector also continued its slow recovery with a growth rate of 0.3% yoy. Mining activities continued to be depressed, with coal and lignite dropping by -13% yoy. On the other hand, in November Ukraine manufacturing grew by 3.0% yoy. The consolidated fiscal budget (state and local) for the month of November showed a surplus of UAH 4.1billion, reducing the cumulative fiscal surplus from the beginning of the year to UAH 33.9 billion (or a surplus of about 1.2% of period GDP). Consumer inflation decelerated from 14.6% yoy in October to 13.6% in November. At the same time, core inflation further expanded, reaching 8.6% yoy. In the banking sector, bank deposits in November continued to increase, expanding by 10.9% yoy for Hryvnia deposits and by 5.4% yoy for foreign currency deposits. On the lending side, loans in Hryvnias expanded by 8.1% yoy, whereas loans in foreign exchange declined by 12.7%. The growth of money supply in November was 8.1% yoy. The UAH/USD exchange rate remained stable during the first half of December. However, excessive expenditures of the State Treasury related to state budget execution together with large VAT reimbursement to exporters, and increased dollar demand by importers led to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate on December 14 th -18 th . As a result, the UAH/USD exchange rate depreciated to 28.1 UAH per USD by the end of December. In November 2017, Ukraine’s current account showed a small surplus of USD 18 million compared to large deficits in previous months. This current account improvement was due to a higher growth rate in exports (11.0% mom) than in imports (3.9% mom). In January-November 2017, the cumulative deficit of the current account amounted to USD 3 billion (or 3% of period GDP). Since net financial inflows amounted to USD 450 million in November, they allowed international reserves to increase to USD 18.9 billion by the end of November 2017 (3.7 month of the future imports). Main Macroeconomic Indicators 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f GDP, USD billion 173 180 130 87 93.4 104 110 Real GDP Growth, % yoy 0.2 0.0 -6.6 -9.9 2.3 2.2 3.0 Fiscal Balance (incl. Naftogaz/Pension Fund),% of GDP -5.5 -6.5 -11.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.6 -2.5 Public Debt, External and Domestic, % of GDP 36.6 40.4 69.4 79.1 81.2 80.0 78.0 Consumer Inflation, eop, % yoy -0.2 0.5 24.9 43.3 12.4 12.5 8.0 Hryvnia Exchange Rate per USD, eop 8.1 8.2 15.8 24.0 27.0 28.1 30.0 Current Account Balance, % of GDP -8.3 -9.0 -4.1 -0.2 -4.1 -3.2 -3.5 FDI, Net Annual Inflow, USD billion 7.2 4.1 0.3 2.3 3.4 3.0 5.0 International Reserves, USD billion 24.5 20.4 7.5 13.3 15.5 18.9 21.0 Public External Debt, USD billion 32.1 31.7 34.9 42.6 42.5 47.0 52.0 Private External Debt, USD billion 102.3 110.3 91.2 76.0 69.9 65.0 72.0

Transcript of Executive Summary - AgroGeneration...previous months. This current account improvement was due to a...

Page 1: Executive Summary - AgroGeneration...previous months. This current account improvement was due to a higher growth rate in exports (11.0% mom) than in imports (3.9% mom). In January-November

December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk

Edilberto L. Segura

Translator: Ieliena Segura Copyright SigmaBleyzer 2017

Editor: Rina Bleyzer O’Malley All rights reserved

1

Executive Summary

After holding a short ceasefire from the end of December 2017, in the third week of January 2018, Russian backed

separatists re-started their attacks against Ukrainian militants. Russian involvement in the conflict in Ukraine has

become a major concern of the US government. The US Secretary of Defense recently implied that Russia’s intention

to impose Russian-friendly authoritarian regimes was the major challenge to the US, above international terrorism.

The reform agenda in Ukraine is hindered by slow progress in fighting corruption and in judiciary system reform.

Significant progress in these areas are needed to secure international assistance and pave the way for a higher growth.

As a part of these reforms, Ukraine is expected to pass a law on the establishment of an Anti-Corruption Court.

High-frequency monthly data show that Ukraine’s economic activity has continued to improve, thought at uneven rates.

In November 2017, Ukrainian construction output expanded by 10.7% yoy, retail trade increased by 6.8% yoy, and

passenger turnover grew by 3.6% yoy. Ukraine's industrial sector also continued its slow recovery with a growth rate of

0.3% yoy. Mining activities continued to be depressed, with coal and lignite dropping by -13% yoy. On the other hand,

in November Ukraine manufacturing grew by 3.0% yoy.

The consolidated fiscal budget (state and local) for the month of November showed a surplus of UAH 4.1billion,

reducing the cumulative fiscal surplus from the beginning of the year to UAH 33.9 billion (or a surplus of about

1.2% of period GDP).

Consumer inflation decelerated from 14.6% yoy in October to 13.6% in November. At the same time, core inflation

further expanded, reaching 8.6% yoy.

In the banking sector, bank deposits in November continued to increase, expanding by 10.9% yoy for Hryvnia deposits

and by 5.4% yoy for foreign currency deposits. On the lending side, loans in Hryvnias expanded by 8.1% yoy, whereas

loans in foreign exchange declined by 12.7%. The growth of money supply in November was 8.1% yoy.

The UAH/USD exchange rate remained stable during the first half of December. However, excessive expenditures of

the State Treasury related to state budget execution together with large VAT reimbursement to exporters, and increased

dollar demand by importers led to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate on December 14th-18th. As a result,

the UAH/USD exchange rate depreciated to 28.1 UAH per USD by the end of December.

In November 2017, Ukraine’s current account showed a small surplus of USD 18 million compared to large deficits in

previous months. This current account improvement was due to a higher growth rate in exports (11.0% mom) than in

imports (3.9% mom). In January-November 2017, the cumulative deficit of the current account amounted to USD 3

billion (or 3% of period GDP). Since net financial inflows amounted to USD 450 million in November, they allowed

international reserves to increase to USD 18.9 billion by the end of November 2017 (3.7 month of the future imports).

Main Macroeconomic Indicators 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f

GDP, USD billion 173 180 130 87 93.4 104 110

Real GDP Growth, % yoy 0.2 0.0 -6.6 -9.9 2.3 2.2 3.0

Fiscal Balance (incl. Naftogaz/Pension Fund),% of GDP -5.5 -6.5 -11.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.6 -2.5

Public Debt, External and Domestic, % of GDP 36.6 40.4 69.4 79.1 81.2 80.0 78.0

Consumer Inflation, eop, % yoy -0.2 0.5 24.9 43.3 12.4 12.5 8.0

Hryvnia Exchange Rate per USD, eop 8.1 8.2 15.8 24.0 27.0 28.1 30.0

Current Account Balance, % of GDP -8.3 -9.0 -4.1 -0.2 -4.1 -3.2 -3.5

FDI, Net Annual Inflow, USD billion 7.2 4.1 0.3 2.3 3.4 3.0 5.0

International Reserves, USD billion 24.5 20.4 7.5 13.3 15.5 18.9 21.0

Public External Debt, USD billion 32.1 31.7 34.9 42.6 42.5 47.0 52.0

Private External Debt, USD billion 102.3 110.3 91.2 76.0 69.9 65.0 72.0

Page 2: Executive Summary - AgroGeneration...previous months. This current account improvement was due to a higher growth rate in exports (11.0% mom) than in imports (3.9% mom). In January-November

December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk Edilberto L. Segura

Headquarters Kyiv Office, Ukraine Kharkiv Office, Ukraine

123 N. Post Oak Ln., Suite 410 4A, Baseyna Street, «Mandarin Plaza», 8th floor Meytin House, 49 Sumska Street, Office 4

Houston, TX 77024 USA Kyiv 01004, Ukraine Kharkiv 61022, Ukraine

Tel: +1 (713) 621-3111 Tel: +38 (044) 284-1289 Tel: +38 (057) 714-1180

Fax: +1 (713) 621-4666 Fax: +38 (044) 284-1283 Fax: +38 (057) 714-1188

Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

2

Political and Reform Developments

After holding a short ceasefire from the end of December 2017, in the third week of January 2018, Russian

backed separatists re-started their attacks against Ukrainian militants and civilians in the Donetsk region.

Although the intensity of attacks is lower compared to the fall of the previous year, there were several deaths

among Ukrainian army forces. Thanks to significant efforts made by Ukrainian team in the Minsk’s negotiations

for the release of Ukrainian militants imprisoned in Donetsk and Luhansk, an exchange of people took place at

the end of December. Almost one hundred Ukrainians – including civilians who were assisting the Ukrainian

army – were released from Donetsk prisons and camps. In exchange the Ukrainian side released several hundred

separatists – including Russian citizens – who were caught during military actions in the Eastern part of the

country.

Russian involvement in the conflict in Ukraine has become a major concern of the US government. The US

Secretary of Defense recently implied that Russia’s intention to impose Russian-friendly authoritarian regimes

was the major challenge to the US, above international terrorism. The urgent need to introduce a special UN

military forces in the conflict zone is in the agenda of the Western leaders. In December, this was reconfirmed

by the EU and the US while they re-continuing sanctions against Russia. Moreover, the US Senate has now

voted in favor of providing Ukraine with lethal weapons to ensure the country’s security.

The reform agenda in Ukraine is hindered by slow progress in fighting corruption and in judiciary system reform.

Significant progress in these areas are needed to secure international assistance and pave the way for a higher

level of economic growth. Recent appointment of the Supreme Court of Ukraine members took place with a high

rate of participation of the Ukrainian civil society. It gave an opportunity to insert into this body highly educated

new-comers non-from-the-old-system. Nevertheless some questionable candidates were appointed.

As a part of the judicial system reform and fighting corruption, Ukraine is expected to pass a law on the

establishment of an Anti-Corruption Court. It was a part of the requirements from both Ukrainian civil society

and international partners including the EU, IMF and the World Bank. The draft law submitted to Verhovna

Rada by President Poroshenko was criticized by all stakeholders since the independence of the court was not

assured. There is broad agreement that the draft law should be re-drafted. A number of changes should be

introduced into the draft law to make it in line with the requirements of Ukrainian civil society, the Venice

Commission, EU, IMF World Bank and the US. The approval of a satisfactory law would be an important step

in improving the country’s business environment.

Economic Growth

According to the latest release of the State

Statistics Committee, in the third quarter of

2017, real GDP grew by 2.1% yoy, compared

to an increase of 2.3% yoy in the third quarter

of 2016. The mayor sources of GDP growth

were gross capital formation, which increased

by 7.6% yoy (compared to 35.8% yoy in Q3

2016), household consumption and general

government expenditures, which grew by

5.4% yoy and 4.3% yoy, respectively

(compared to 4.7% yoy and 2.0% yoy in Q3

2016).

Expenditure side of the Gross Domestic Product, % yoy (To corresponding quarter of previous year)

Source: State Statistics Committee, The Bleyzer Foundation

-20.7

-28.1

-19.3

-13

-2.2

4 4.70.9 2.8

6.9 5.42.7

-5.9

-1.7

8.12.7

-1.5

2

-2.2

4.2

-7.8

4.36.8 4.7 6.1

15.811.9

22.5

35.8

79

11.7

21.5

7.6

-26.1-22.1

-10.8-5.8 -4.1 -7.2

-3.7

9.7

-0.4 -2.1

6.9

-19.8

-32.1

-18.2 -17.3 -3.6

-0.1

16.119.6

2.94.6

13.2-17.0 -14.7

-7.2

-1.4 0.1

1.5 2.3

4.8

2.5 2.3 2.1

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

І q ІI q ІII q IV q І q ІI q ІII q IV q І q ІI q ІII q

2015 2016 2017

Consumption of householdsGovernment expenditureInvestment (Gross capital formation)Exports of goods and servicesImports of goods and servicesGDP

Page 3: Executive Summary - AgroGeneration...previous months. This current account improvement was due to a higher growth rate in exports (11.0% mom) than in imports (3.9% mom). In January-November

December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk Edilberto L. Segura

Headquarters Kyiv Office, Ukraine Kharkiv Office, Ukraine

123 N. Post Oak Ln., Suite 410 4A, Baseyna Street, «Mandarin Plaza», 8th floor Meytin House, 49 Sumska Street, Office 4

Houston, TX 77024 USA Kyiv 01004, Ukraine Kharkiv 61022, Ukraine

Tel: +1 (713) 621-3111 Tel: +38 (044) 284-1289 Tel: +38 (057) 714-1180

Fax: +1 (713) 621-4666 Fax: +38 (044) 284-1283 Fax: +38 (057) 714-1188

Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

3

On the supply side of GDP, the sectors that

showed the largest recovery were the construction

sector, which expanded by 25.2% yoy; financial

and insurance activities, which increased by 8.7%

yoy; real estate activities (by 6.8% yoy);

information and communication (by 6.4 yoy);

transportation and storage (by 6.3 yoy); and

wholesale and retail trade sectors (by 5.7% yoy).

On the other hand, the following subsectors

continued to have negative rates of GDP growth in

Q3 2017: mining and quarrying production (-6.5%

yoy); education (-5.9% yoy); electricity, gas,

steam and air conditioning supply (-5.1% yoy);

public administration, defense and social security

sectors (-3.6% yoy); water supply, sewerage and

waste management (-2.6% yoy); arts,

entertainment with recreation (-2.2% yoy); and

agriculture (-0.1% yoy).

High-frequency monthly data shows that Ukraine’s

economic activity has continued to improve,

thought at uneven rates. In November 2017,

Ukrainian construction output expanded by 10.7%

yoy, retail trade increased by 6.8% yoy, and

passenger turnover grew by 3.6% yoy.

Nevertheless, agriculture production, and freight

turnover continued to show negative signs of -13%

yoy and -1% yoy, respectively. Ukrainian industrial

production expanded by 0.3% yoy thanks to a rise

of manufacturing output by 3% yoy, while coal and

lignite fell down by 13% yoy in November 2017.

Within manufacturing, the following subsectors had

significant growth rates in November: chemicals

(46.1% yoy), pharmaceutical products (18.9% yoy),

rubber and plastic (6.8% yoy), textile (4.5%yoy),

engineering (3.6% yoy), and metallurgy (2.7% yoy).

However, the sectors that had negative

performances were coke and oil refining (-7.6%

yoy), electricity production (-6.4% yoy) and food

processing (-1.1% yoy).

Regarding regional production growth, the oblasts

with the largest expansion in industrial output in

November 2017 were Ternopil (23% yoy); Rivne

(14.4% yoy); Ivano-Frankivsk (14.2% yoy); Chernivtsi (14% yoy); Lviv (12.3% yoy); Zakarpattya (11.1% yoy);

and Khmelnytskiy (7.3% yoy). On the other hand, negative rates of growth in industrial output were experienced

in Luhansk (-41.0% yoy), Mikolayiv (-11.1% yoy), Donetsk (-10.3% yoy), and Zaporizhzhya (-5.2% yoy).

Industrial Production by Regions, % yoy (To corresponding month of previous year)

Source: State Statistics Committee, The Bleyzer Foundation

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan

uary

Feb

rua

ry

Marc

h

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

No

vem

ber

Dec

ember

Jan

uary

Feb

rua

ry

Marc

h

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

No

vem

ber

Dec

ember

Jan

uary

Feb

rua

ry

Marc

h

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

No

vem

ber

2015 2016 2017

Kiev Odessa VolynDnipropetrovsk Ukraine KarpathyDonetsk Lugansk Kharkiv

Industrial Production by Sectors, % yoy (To corresponding month of previous year)

Source: State Statistics Committee, The Bleyzer Foundation

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70J

an

ua

ry

Feb

ru

ary

Ma

rch

Ap

ril

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

gu

st

Sep

tem

ber

Octo

ber

No

vem

ber

Decem

ber

Jan

ua

ry

Feb

ru

ary

Ma

rch

Ap

ril

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

gu

st

Sep

tem

ber

Octo

ber

No

vem

ber

Decem

ber

Jan

ua

ry

Feb

ru

ary

Ma

rch

Ap

ril

Ma

y

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

gu

st

Sep

tem

ber

Octo

ber

No

vem

ber

2015 2016 2017

Food processing Chemicals Metallurgy

Machine-building Electricity Pharmacy

Electricity, gas, steam Manufacturing Industry

Ukraine Economic Performance by Sector, % yoy (To corresponding month of previous year)

Source: The Bleyzer Foundation

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

Jan

uar

y

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gu

st

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

ber

Dec

emb

er

Jan

uar

y

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gu

st

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

ber

Dec

emb

er

Jan

uar

y

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gu

st

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

ber

2015 2016 2017

Agricultural production indeхIndustrial production indexIndex of construction outputRetail trade turnover

Page 4: Executive Summary - AgroGeneration...previous months. This current account improvement was due to a higher growth rate in exports (11.0% mom) than in imports (3.9% mom). In January-November

December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk Edilberto L. Segura

Headquarters Kyiv Office, Ukraine Kharkiv Office, Ukraine

123 N. Post Oak Ln., Suite 410 4A, Baseyna Street, «Mandarin Plaza», 8th floor Meytin House, 49 Sumska Street, Office 4

Houston, TX 77024 USA Kyiv 01004, Ukraine Kharkiv 61022, Ukraine

Tel: +1 (713) 621-3111 Tel: +38 (044) 284-1289 Tel: +38 (057) 714-1180

Fax: +1 (713) 621-4666 Fax: +38 (044) 284-1283 Fax: +38 (057) 714-1188

Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

4

Fiscal Policy

In November, the state budget saw another

surplus (amounting to UAH 4.1 billion)

stimulated by monthly increase in revenues and

declines in expenditures. At the same time,

local budgets were executed with the

cumulative deficit of UAH 1.4 billion. Thus the

consolidated budget was in surplus of UAH 2.7

billion in November, expanding the cumulative

surplus from the beginning of the year to UAH

33.9 billion (about 1.2% of period GDP).

Despite some monthly increase, state budget

revenues reversed their year-over-year trend.

They decline by 3.6% yoy because of negative

developments in nontax revenues. Growth of tax revenues continued to decelerate (to 13.8% yoy). This was

related to customs experiment within which over UAH 2 billion were transferred from the general fund of the

state budget to the special fund of local budgets. Also, it was related to increased VAT reimbursements

significantly exceeding the average monthly size of reimbursements in 2017 and being almost twice as high as

in November 2016. The cumulative consolidated budget revenues saw some deceleration in growth to 33.3%

yoy in January-November.

Following a monthly decline, state budget

expenditures experienced significant deceleration

of year-over-year growth to 12.5% yoy. This was

the result of significant decrease in expenditures

on domestic debt servicing after restructureing of

sovereign bonds in the NBU’s portfolio. At the

same time, growth of expenditures on goods and

services, on current transfers, and on capital

expenditures significantly decelerated. On the

other hand, growth of state budget expenditures

was supported by faster increase in payroll and

social security expenditures. Cumulative

consolidated budget expenditures grew at a pace

of 23.5% yoy in January-November.

Monetary Policy

Inflation. As expected, consumer inflation decelerated in November to 13.6% yoy but remained above the

forecast level. Core inflation, on the contrary, accelerated to 8.6% yoy. Faster growth of prices of foodstuffs,

transport, communication, hotels and restaurants as well as exchange rate depreciation were the major reasons

of consumer inflation being above the forecast. Slower growth in prices of housing and utilities as compared to

the previous month (10.3% yoy vs 15.3% yoy) was the major driver of deceleration in consumer price growth

in November. Other major groups of goods and services, including foodstuffs, saw little changes in prices.

Taking into account recent consumer prices developments and common price trend in December we expect

consumer inflation to be around 13-13.5% yoy in 2017.

CPI, PPI, and Growth of Prices for Select Goods and

Services, % yoy

Source: State Statistical Service of Ukraine, The Bleyzer Foundation

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

Nov

2016 2017

CPIPPIFoodstuffs and nonalcoholic beveragesWearing apparel and footwearHousing and utilitiesHome appliancesHealthcareTransport

Dynamics of consolidated budget components

(from the beginning of the year)

Source: The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, The Bleyzer Foundation

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2016 2017

Balance, bln (right scale)

Revenues, % yoy (left scale)

Expenditures, % yoy (left scale)

Page 5: Executive Summary - AgroGeneration...previous months. This current account improvement was due to a higher growth rate in exports (11.0% mom) than in imports (3.9% mom). In January-November

December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk Edilberto L. Segura

Headquarters Kyiv Office, Ukraine Kharkiv Office, Ukraine

123 N. Post Oak Ln., Suite 410 4A, Baseyna Street, «Mandarin Plaza», 8th floor Meytin House, 49 Sumska Street, Office 4

Houston, TX 77024 USA Kyiv 01004, Ukraine Kharkiv 61022, Ukraine

Tel: +1 (713) 621-3111 Tel: +38 (044) 284-1289 Tel: +38 (057) 714-1180

Fax: +1 (713) 621-4666 Fax: +38 (044) 284-1283 Fax: +38 (057) 714-1188

Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

5

Banking Sector. Bank deposits expanded at an accelerated pace in November. Households were the driving

force of growth in national currency deposits, while corporate sector ensured faster expansion of the foreign

currency deposits denominated in USD. In

particular, household national currency deposits

grew by 13.5% yoy compensating for deceleration

in growth of corporate national currency deposits to

3.7% yoy. At the same time, corporate foreign

currency deposits denominated in USD grew by

15.3% yoy more than compensating for a 2.0% yoy

decline of said deposits in the household sector.

Overall, in November national currency deposits

expanded by 10.9% yoy, while foreign currency

deposits in USD rose by 5.4% yoy.

In November, bank lending activities continued to

improve. Total national currency loans grew by

8.1% yoy. Nevertheless, this is 6.1 percentage

points less than a month ago, because of sharp

deceleration in hryvnia loans growth in the

corporate sector, whose growth rate dropped from

13.4% yoy to just 0.3% yoy. This was partly offset by acceleration in growth of the household national currency

loans by 2.6 percentage points to 26.2% yoy. The situation with the foreign currency loans denominated in USD

was the opposite, with overall foreign currency loans denominated in USD declining by 12.7% yoy.

The monetary base saw deceleration in growth in

both monthly terms (to 0.6%) and year-over-year

terms (to 5.9%). This happened because decrease in

balances at correspondent accounts of banks

partially offset growth in cash resources. Money

supply edged up by 0.4% mom because of moderate

increase in cash outside banks and in deposits. At

the same time, the over-year growth of money

supply accelerated to 8.1% yoy.

Hryvnia Exchange Rate. The UAH/USD

exchange rate remained stable during the first half

of December. However, excessive expenditures of

the State Treasury related to state budget execution

together with large VAT reimbursement to

exporters, and increased dollar demand by

importers led to a significant depreciation of the

exchange rate on December 14th-18th. In particular, higher expenditures of the Treasury and VAT

reimbursements increased the cash balances at the correspondent accounts of commercial banks in the NBU to

the record high levels during the period. But banks usually transfer their excessive hryvnia cash resources into

dollars. Increased demand for dollar on the side of importers is a common seasonal trend as the demand for

imported goods increases on the eve of the New Year holidays. The NBU made several dollar interventions in

the interbank forex market and managed to significantly slow depreciation by the end of the month. Overall, the

exchange rate depreciated by around 1% to 28.10 UAH/USD.

Dynamics of the Average Weighted UAH/USD

Exchange Rate in the Interbank Forex Market

Source: The NBU, The Bleyzer Foundation

24.00

24.50

25.00

25.50

26.00

26.50

27.00

27.50

28.00

28.50

12-01-16

01-01-17

02-01-17

03-01-17

04-01-17

05-01-17

06-01-17

07-01-17

08-01-17

09-01-17

10-01-17

11-01-17

12-01-17

Dynamics of Money Supply, Deposits, and Loans,

% yoy

Source: The NBU, The Bleyzer Foundation

-30-25-20-15-10

-505

10152025

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

2016 2017Money supply Hryvnia deposits FX deposits in USDHryvnia loans FX loans in USD

Page 6: Executive Summary - AgroGeneration...previous months. This current account improvement was due to a higher growth rate in exports (11.0% mom) than in imports (3.9% mom). In January-November

December 2017 Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk Edilberto L. Segura

Headquarters Kyiv Office, Ukraine Kharkiv Office, Ukraine

123 N. Post Oak Ln., Suite 410 4A, Baseyna Street, «Mandarin Plaza», 8th floor Meytin House, 49 Sumska Street, Office 4

Houston, TX 77024 USA Kyiv 01004, Ukraine Kharkiv 61022, Ukraine

Tel: +1 (713) 621-3111 Tel: +38 (044) 284-1289 Tel: +38 (057) 714-1180

Fax: +1 (713) 621-4666 Fax: +38 (044) 284-1283 Fax: +38 (057) 714-1188

Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

6

International Trade and Capital

According to the latest NBU’s report, Ukraine’s

current account showed a surplus of USD 18 million

in November 2017, compared to a deficit of USD -

315 million in November 2016. Hence, in January-

November 2017, the cumulative deficit of the

current account amounted to USD 3 billion (or 3%

of period GDP).

The November 2017 current account improvement

was due to a reduction in the deficit in merchandise

trade from USD -713 million in October to USD -

450 million in November, due to a faster rate of

growth of merchandise exports (11% mom) than

imports (3.9% mom). In a similar manner,

Ukrainian net service trade showed higher increase

in exports (by 5.6% mom), than in imports (2.9%

mom). At the same time, the surpluses in the

balances in net primary and secondary incomes

showed short increases of USD 119 million and USD 349 million, respectively.

On a year-to-year basis, merchandise exports increased by 17.3% yoy, reaching USD 3,945 million in November

2017. The merchandise products that had the largest export growth included: machinery and equipment, which

expanded by 83.4% yoy (USD 440.5 million, 11.2% share of total exports), ferrous and nonferrous metals which

increased by 50.8% yoy (USD 1.1 billion, with 27% share); industrial goods which raised by 31.7% yoy (USD

53.3 million, with a share of 1.4%), chemical products by 30.7% yoy (USD 199.8 million, with a share of 5.1%),

and mineral products increased by 17.8% yoy (USD 270.8 million, with a share of 6.9% of exports). On the

other hand, Ukrainian agriculture products export fell down by -2.8% yoy to USD 1.7 billion.

On the import side, the largest share of imported products in November were as follows: machinery and

equipment, with a share of 27% of total imports (USD 1.28 billion, growing by 20.6% yoy); mineral products,

with 26% share (USD 1.23 bln, 25.9% yoy); chemicals products, with a 18% share (USD 862 million, 22.7%

yoy), and agricultural products, with a share of 10% (USD 471 million, 31.3% yoy).

Regarding the geographical orientation of exports, in

January-November 2017, Ukrainian exports to

Europe expanded by 32.7% yoy to USD 13.1 billion

and now represent 36.1% of the total exports share. At

the same time, exports to the Russian Federation

declined by 0.6% to a share of 8.5% the total exports.

Asia foreign trade fell with Ukraine by -2.2% to a

32.6% share of the total amounts exported.

In November the financial accounts inflows amounted

of USD 478 million. As a result, international reserves

increased to USD 18.9 billion, enough for 3.7 months

of future import requirements.

Ukraine's External Balance of Payments,

million USD

Source: NBU, the Bleyzer Foundation

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

*

No

v*

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

Jul

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

2015 2016 2017

Financial account, left scale, $ mln USD

Current account, left scale, $ mln USD

Overall Balance of Payments, $ mln USD

Exports of goods and services, right scale, $ mln USD

Import of goods and services, right scale, $ mln USD

Ukraine's International Reserve, million USD

Source: NBU, the Bleyzer Foundation

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gu

st

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

No

vem

ber

Dec

ember

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gu

st

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

No

vem

ber

Dec

ember

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gu

st

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

No

vem

ber

Dec

ember

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gu

st

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

No

vem

ber

Dec

ember

 2014 2015 2016 2017

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Golg Foreign currency reservesOfficial reserve assets SDRs (left scale)