Executive | 150127 | Hoe lang blijft Nederland onafhankelijk van Russisch Gas? | Presentatie | René...
Transcript of Executive | 150127 | Hoe lang blijft Nederland onafhankelijk van Russisch Gas? | Presentatie | René...
Overview
Role of gas in the energy mix
Gas supply in NL: past, present and future
Import dependency in a BAU scenario
What influences the transition point?
The role of innovation
How will future developments influence the transition point?
Summary and conclusions
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World Primary Energy Demand developmentthe role of gas in the energy mix is increasing
From: IEA special report on gas 2011
‘World energy demand’ expectation 2035[source IEA, 2011]
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Role of natural gas increases in all scenarios
SER Energie akkoord:14% renewable in 202016% renewable in 2023 4.5%
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Change in Natural Gas Production by regionNorth sea region is going into decline
From: IEA special report on gas 2011
UK and NL
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Groningen gasveld
eerste gas: 1948(Coevorden)
1959 : Ontdekking Groningen (Slochteren) gasveld
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1970
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1980
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1990
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2000
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Current status w.r.t. Natural Gas in NL
437 gasfields discovered (on- & offshore)Of which :
• 239 in production• 4 converted to gas storage• 57 depleted• 41 planned for production • 71 “stranded fields”
N.B. infrastructure (platforms and pipelines) are at maximum and will decline from now on!
Huidige reserves: 1044 BCM (25 jr)Waarvan ~800 BCM in Groningen
Gas Production in the Netherlands
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From TNO: www.nlog.nl
Gas earnings in the Netherlands
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From TNO: www.nlog.nl
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2008
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Offshore infrastructure Simulatie voor 2008-2034
Aanname : productie uit bestaandevelden, nu niet producerende veldenen uit exploratiepotentieel
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Dutch gas reserves are depleting the next decade(Future) Gas production profile NL (forecast 2011)
Groningen field
Small fields
Gas demand in NL
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Transition point: Export > 2023 < Import
Recent developments that impact the transition poin t
Groningen field
Small fields
Gas demand in NL
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Export > > > > 2023 < Import
1. Declining demand2. Groningen production cap3. Innovation in small fields4. Exploration potential
Expected decline in gas demand in NL
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� ECN estimates a reduction from 40 BCM in 2015 to 31 BCM in 2030� Households will reduce gas demand as a result of isolation, use of city
heating. � The use of gas for industry has been reduced because of the recession
and high gas prices (chemical industry, process industry)� Power generation has switched from gas to coal (cheap coal and CO2)
� A lower demand will delay the transition point towards gas import
Source: ECN Nationale Energieverkenning
Impact of changing production profile Groningen
Groningen production
2013: ~53 BCM
2014: capped at 42.5 BCM
2015: capped at 39.4 BCM
2016: capped at 39.4 BCM
2017 and beyond to be decided
Due to production cap, future production can be kept at plateau
before natural decline will set in for a longer period
Current reserve Groningen ~800 BCM (>30 years production)
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Dutch gas reserves are depleting the next decade(Future) Gas production profile NL (forecast 2014)
Groningen field
Small fields
Gas demand in NL
Export > 2026 (+2 jr) < ImportFrom TNO: www.nlog.nl
Groningen looses its capacity as a swing producer for NL and Europe
‘Fighting the decline’
Mogelijkheden:
� Verlengen van de ‘tail-end-production’
� In productie brengen van ‘moeilijke velden’
� ‘Near field’ exploratie van hele marginale voorkomens
� ‘Echte’ exploratie, ev. inclusief unconventionals
(schaliegas en steenkoolgas)
Vergen alle aandacht en ondersteuning, o.a. door R&D
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nieuwe technologie nodig
geologisch onderzoeknodig & R&D
Typical End -of-field -life challenges
Liquid loading
Salt precipitation
Challenging / unstable operations
Maximize recovery
Extend facility life
Facility integrity & safety
Abandonment
Legal limitations (SSSV / foam offshore)
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Application of innovation for maximising recovery of small fields
Maximising recovery from mature fields
Foam injection to delay liquid loading
Deliquefication with gaslift, velocity strings, plunger lift
Wellhead compression
Delaying salt precipitation
Enhanced gas recovery (N2, CO2 injection)
Exploration of new fields
Conventional, shallow gas, in underexplored areas
Unconventional, tight gas, shale gas
Developing stranded fields
Remote operation
Subsea tie backs
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Foamers for gas well deliquification
Participants
ConceptFoam will delay liquid loading of a well and extend The field life and ultimate recovery of a gas field.
Deliverables• Improved foamer selection method • Scaling relations for prediction of field behavour• First principle flow model for foams
Values of deliverables projects• Improved foamer selection• Improved prediction of quantitative effect of foamers• Enabling comparison with other mitigation strategies
Innovation in small fields to realise 30-30 target
30/30target
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Gas demand
Exploratie potentieel in NL
Conventioneel gas
Onshore
Offshore
Shallow gas pockets (hazard or opportunity?)
Tight gas (nu vaak stranded fields)
Shale gas (nog zeer onzeker vanwege ontbreken exploratieboringen)
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Analysis of prospective areas in NL
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Exploratie potentieel land (cut-off 0.5 BCM)
Exploratie potentieel NLLand 143 BCMOffshore 126 BCM
MSV = mean success volumeSource: www.nlog.nl
Winning van schaliegas: Nederlandse geologische condities
Gas houdende lagen in
Jura (Posidonia) en
Carboon (Geverik)
Huidige schattingen TRR
varieren van 50 – 500 BCM
Kraakbaarheid van het
gesteente nog grotendeels
onbekend
Exploratieboringen nodig
voor betere schattingen
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Impact of enhanced exploration and implementation of new technologies on small fields
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Source: Focus on Dutch Gas 2014
Conclusions
Current gas reserves in NL are ~1000 BCM, of which 800 of Groningen
In a BAU scenario, NL will be gas import dependent in 2023
The exploration potential for conventional gas is currently 269 BCM
Unconventional sources might add 200 – 500 BCM on the long term
With current production cap on Groningen en decreasing gas demand,
the transition point will already be delayed by around 2-3 years
Innovation can extend the field life by around 10% and reduce OPEX
The transition point can be delayed by around 5 years when new
technologies are implemented on a large scale and investments remain
at a level of around 1 B€ / yr
There is a limited window of opportunity to apply end of field life
technologies in offshore fields
To delay the transition towards gas import, continued focus on
collaborative innovation and cost efficient operation is required.
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Thank you for your time and attention
Contact details
Rene Peters
Phone +31 6 51551566
@renepeters
www.tno.nl/energy
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