Exec Summary Table Status Quo Farming Economy Recreation Economy Fish and Farm Economy Drought...
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Transcript of Exec Summary Table Status Quo Farming Economy Recreation Economy Fish and Farm Economy Drought...
Exec Summary Table
Status QuoFarming Economy
Recreation Economy
Fish and Farm Economy
Drought Conditions
Direct Revenue for the Region and Percent Change by Scenario
Hotels $15,122 (4.0%) 31.4% 13.3% 7.4% Real Estate $20,841 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Agriculture $40,183 171.0% (52.5%) 63.2% (61.2%)Recreation $5,158 (66.9%) 374.1% 222.0% 223.0% Tourism $53,391 (3.7%) 43.8% 12.4% (3.0%)
Net Change in Market Value $0 $62,873 $24,631 $44,811 ($13,889)Net Change in Expressed Value $0 ($15,541) $92,853 $51,546 $47,737
Market Value $132,041 $194,915 $156,673 $176,853 $118,151Expressed Value $45,396 $29,853 $138,248 $96,942 $93,133
Total Value $177,437 $224,768 $294,922 $273,795 $211,285
Table 3: Summary of Results from All Scenarios (all numbers in $1000s)
Flow Table
Pre-Irrigation Managed
Summer
820 1,340 Upper
1,315 35 Middle
4,432 4,040 Lower
Winter
730 30 Upper
1,310 670 Middle
4,660 4,520 Lower
Table 2: Pre-Irrigation and present Managed flows in cubic foot per second (cfs) of the Deschutes River by season and section of the river (all numbers in CFS)
Figure 1: Revenue Generated by the Deschutes River in 2010
$40,183
$5,158
$15,122
$20,840
$26,193
$1,839
$53,391
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000
Agriculture
Tourism
Recreation
Hotels
Real Estate
Travel Cost
Commercial Salmon
Ind
us
try
Revenue in $1000s
Revenue Generated by Industry
Figure 1: Revenue Generated by the Deschutes River in 2010 from Key Industries
Figure 2: Direct Revenue Generated by the Deschutes River in 2010
$40,183
$53,391
$5,158
$15,122
$20,840
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000
Agriculture
Tourism
Recreation
Hotels
Real Estate
Ind
us
try
Revenue in $1000s
Direct Revenue Generated by Industry
Figure 2: Direct Revenue to Central Oregon Generated by Industry in 2010
Figure 3: Tourism Deschutes River-Related Tourism Revenue
$15,122 $15,122$5,159 $5,159
$249,452
$312,903
$47,367
$59,416
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
Low High
River Contribution
Non-River Contribution
Revenue AlreadyAccounted for in RecreationAnalysis
Revenue AlreadyAccounted for in HotelAnalysis
Figure 3: Tourism Revenue by Category
Re
ven
ue
in $
10
00
s
$317,100
$392,600
Figure 4: Upper Deschutes Guided Recreation Revenue
1
23
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fishing Rafting Canoeing/Kayaking
Participants by Activity
$79
$897
$728
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
Fishing Rafting Canoeing/Kayaking
Revenue by Activity
Pa
rtic
ipa
nts
in 1
00
0s
Re
ven
ue
in $
10
00
s
Figure 4: Upper Deschutes Guided Recreation Revenue
Figure 5: Lower Deschutes Guided Recreation Revenue
17
10
7
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Fishing Rafting Canoeing/Kayaking
Participants by Activity
$2,475
$398
$582
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Fishing Rafting Canoeing/Kayaking
Revenue by Activity
Pa
rtic
ipa
nts
in 1
00
0s
Re
ven
ue
in $
10
00
s
Figure 5: Lower Deschutes Guided Recreation Revenue
Figure 6: Hotel Revenue and Jobs from River
$10,365
$3,310
$13,676
$1,020
$425
$1,445
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
$16,000
Summer (May-Oct) Winter (Nov-Apr) Total
River Contribution River Premium
$11,385
Figure 6: Hotel Revenue and Jobs from River
$3,735
$15,1222,000
1,000
Re
ven
ue
in $
10
00
s
Job
s
Jobs
Figure 7: Upper Deschutes River-Related Hotel Revenue by Season
$7,076
$1,887
$261
$93
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
Summer (May-Oct) Winter (Nov-Apr)
River Contribution River Premium
Figure 7: Upper Deschutes River-Related Hotel Revenue by Season
Re
ven
ue
in $
10
00
s
$7,337
$1,980
Figure 8: Indirect Revenue Generated by Industry
Revenue in $1000s
$1,839
$23,559
$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000
Commercial Salmon
Travel Cost
Cat
ego
ry
Indirect Revenue Generated by Industry
Figure 8: Indirect Revenue Generated by Industry
Figure 9: Commercial Salmon Value and Rebuilding Scenarios
$1,839
$2,654
$3,139
$4,090
$4,593
$3,422
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
Market Non-Market
Historic Steady
Rebuilding Midpoint
Best Case Future
Commercial Salmon Value and Rebuilding Scenarios
Val
ue
in $
100
0sFigure 9: Commercial Salmon Values
Figure 10: Travel Expense of Visitors to Central Oregon
$28,793 $23,558
$124,066$151,637
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
High Low
River Contribution Other Expense
Figure 10: Travel Expense of Visitors to Central Oregon
Exp
en
se in
$1
00
0s
$147,625
$180,431
Figure 11: Deschutes River-related travel expenditures by mode
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
Low High
Rental Car Only
RV
Fly (and Fly + Car)
Private Car Only
Figure 11: Deschutes River Related Travel Expenditures by Mode
Exp
en
se in
$1
00
0s $147,625
$180,431
Figure 12: Additional Benefits
1,389
173
358
1,514
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Agriculture Hotels Recreation Tourism
Jobs by Industry
Job
s
$9,831
$4,985
$5,044
Benefit by Activity
Canoeing/Kayaking
Rafting
Fishing
Additional Benefit by Activityin $1000
$19,861
Figure 12: Additional Benefits from Unguided Recreation and Job Creation
Figure 13: Upper Deschutes Additional Benefits form Non-Guided Recreation
2
87
33
0
25
50
75
100
Fishing Rafting Canoeing/Kayaking
Participants by Activity
$303
$3,453
$2,803
$0
$800
$1,600
$2,400
$3,200
$4,000
Fishing Rafting Canoeing/Kayaking
Additional Benefits by Activity
Pa
rtic
ipa
nts
in 1
00
0s
Re
ven
ue
in $
10
00
s
Figure 13: Upper Deschutes Additional Benefits form Non-Guided Recreation
Figure 14: Lower Deschutes Additional Benefits form Non-Guided Recreation
65
39
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Fishing Rafting Canoeing/Kayaking
Participants by Activity
$9,528
$1,532
$2,241
$0
$2,500
$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
Fishing Rafting Canoeing/Kayaking
Revenue by Activity
Pa
rtic
ipa
nts
in 1
00
0s
Re
ven
ue
in $
10
00
s
Figure 14: Lower Deschutes Additional Benefits form Non-Guided Recreation
Figure 15: Revenue by Scenario by Category
0 50 100 150 200 250
Current RiverEconomy
Farming Economy
Recreation Economy
Fish and FarmEconomy
Draught Conditions
Hotels
Real Estate
Agriculture
Recreation
Tourism
Sce
nar
io
Value in $Millions
Revenue by Scenario by Category
Figure 15: Revenue by Scenario by Category
$132
$194
$157
$177
$118
Scenario Snap Shot: Farming Economy
Farming Economy
In-stream flow change from present day river economy
Revenue by ActivityIn $1000s
Summer Winter
Upper: 0% 0%
Middle: 0% -95%
Lower: -99% 0%
Revenue change from present day river economy
Hotels: -4%
Real Estate: 0%
Agriculture: 171%
Recreation: -70% Additional Expressed Value
Tourism: -4% Non-Guided Recreation Value: -70%
TOTAL 48% Travel Cost WTP: -10%
CHANGE IN TOTAL VALUE: 27%
$49,006
$1,649
$108,905
$20,841
$14,514
Revenue by Activity
Hotels
Real Estate
Agriculture
Recreation
Tourism
$194,915
Scenario Snap Shot: Recreation Economy
River Recreation and Tourism Economy
In-stream flow change from present day river economy
Revenue by ActivityIn $1000s
Summer Winter
Upper: 0% 0%
Middle: 6,521% -95%
Lower: -18% 0%
Revenue change from present day river economy
Hotels: 31%
Real Estate: 0%
Agriculture: -53%
Recreation: 374% Additional Expressed Value
Tourism: 44% Non-Guided Recreation Value: 374%
Total Rev: 19% Travel Cost WTP: 80%
CHANGE IN TOTAL VALUE: 66%
$73,218
$23,648
$19,089
$20,841
$19,878
Revenue by Activity
Hotels
Real Estate
Agriculture
Recreation
Tourism
$156,637
Scenario Snap Shot: Fish and Farm
Fish and Farm Economy
In-stream flow change from present day river economy
Revenue by ActivityIn $1000s
Summer Winter
Upper: 0% 0%
Middle: 2,173% -95%
Lower: -18% 0%
Revenue change from present day river economy
Hotels: 13%
Real Estate: 0%
Agriculture: 63%
Recreation: 222% Additional Expressed Value
Tourism: 12% Non-Guided Recreation Value: 222%
Total Rev: 34% Travel Cost WTP: 34%
CHANGE IN TOTAL VALUE: 54%
$57,214
$16,061
$65,597
$20,841
$17,139
Revenue by Activity
Hotels
Real Estate
Agriculture
Recreation
Tourism
$176,853
Scenario Snap Shot: Draught Conditions
Draught Conditions
In-stream flow change from present day river economy
Revenue by ActivityIn $1000s
Summer Winter
Upper: -36% 0%
Middle: 0% 0%
Lower: -26% -36%
Revenue change from present day river economy
Hotels: 7%
Real Estate: 0%
Agriculture: -61%
Recreation: 223% Additional Expressed Value
Tourism: -3% Non-Guided Recreation Value: 223%
Total Rev: -10% Travel Cost WTP: 19%
CHANGE IN TOTAL VALUE: 19%
$49,383
$16,109
$15,584
$20,841
$16,236
Revenue by Activity
Hotels
Real Estate
Agriculture
Recreation
Tourism
$118,151