Exchange Rate, Balance of Payments and International Financial Market: a review Roberta De Santis...

Exchange Rate, Balance of Payments and International Financial Market:

a review

Roberta De [email protected]

Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic

Concepts

Open and Closed Economies A closed economy is one that does not

interact with other economies in the world.

There are no exports, no imports, and no capital flows.

An open economy is one that interacts freely with other economies around the world.

Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic

Concepts

An Open Economy An open economy interacts with other

countries in two ways. It buys and sells goods and services in world

product markets. It buys and sells capital assets in world

financial markets.

THE INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF GOODS AND CAPITAL

An Open Economy The United States is a very large and

open economy—it imports and exports huge quantities of goods and services.

Over the past four decades, international trade and finance have become increasingly important.

The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, Net Exports

Exports are goods and services that are produced domestically and sold abroad.

Imports are goods and services that are produced abroad and sold domestically.


Net exports (NX) are the value of a nation’s exports minus the value of its imports.

Net exports are also called the trade balance.


A trade deficit is a situation in which net exports (NX) are negative. Imports > Exports

A trade surplus is a situation in which net exports (NX) are positive. Exports > Imports

Balanced trade refers to when net exports are zero—exports and imports are exactly equal.


Factors That Affect Net Exports The tastes of consumers for domestic

and foreign goods. The prices of goods at home and

abroad. The exchange rates at which people can

use domestic currency to buy foreign currencies.


Factors That Affect Net Exports The incomes of consumers at home and

abroad. The costs of transporting goods from

country to country. The policies of the government toward

international trade.

Figure 1 The Internationalization of the U.S. Economy

Percentof GDP

0

5

10

15

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 19901985 20001995

Exports

Imports

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital Outflow

Net capital outflow refers to the purchase of foreign assets by domestic residents minus the purchase of domestic assets by foreigners. A U.S. resident buys stock in the Toyota

corporation and a Mexican buys stock in the Ford Motor corporation.


When a U.S. resident buys stock in Telmex, the Mexican phone company, the purchase raises U.S. net capital outflow.

When a Japanese residents buys a bond issued by the U.S. government, the purchase reduces the U.S. net capital outflow.


Variables that Influence Net Capital Outflow The real interest rates being paid on

foreign assets. The real interest rates being paid on

domestic assets. The perceived economic and political

risks of holding assets abroad. The government policies that affect

foreign ownership of domestic assets.

The Equality of Net Exports and Net Capital Outflow

Net exports (NX) and net capital outflow (NCO) are closely linked.

For an economy as a whole, NX and NCO must balance each other so that:

NCO = NX This holds true because every transaction

that affects one side must also affect the other side by the same amount.

Saving, Investment, and Their Relationship to the International Flows

Net exports is a component of GDP:Y = C + I + G + NX

National saving is the income of the nation that is left after paying for current consumption and government purchases:

Y - C - G = I + NX

Saving, Investment, and Their Relationship to the International Flows

National saving (S) equals Y - C - G so:S = I + NX

or

Saving

Domestic Investmen

t

Net Capital Outflow

= +

S I NCO= +

Figure 2 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign Investment

Percentof GDP

20

18

16

14

12

101960 1965 199519901985198019751970

(a) National Saving and Domestic Investment (as a percentage of GDP)

2000

Domestic investment

National saving


Figure 2 National Saving, Domestic Investment, and Net Foreign Investment

Percentof GDP

4

–4

–3

–2

–1

0

1

2

3

Net capitaloutflow

(b) Net Capital Outflow (as a percentage of GDP)

1960 1965 199519901985198019751970 2000


THE PRICES FOR INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS: REAL AND NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES

International transactions are influenced by international prices.

The two most important international prices are the nominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate.

Nominal Exchange Rates

The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the currency of one country for the currency of another.


The nominal exchange rate is expressed in two ways: In units of foreign currency per one U.S.

dollar. And in units of U.S. dollars per one unit

of the foreign currency.


Assume the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar is 80 yen to one dollar. One U.S. dollar trades for 80 yen. One yen trades for 1/80 (= 0.0125) of a

dollar.


Appreciation refers to an increase in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy.

Depreciation refers to a decrease in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy.


If a dollar buys more foreign currency, there is an appreciation of the dollar.

If it buys less there is a depreciation of the dollar.

Real Exchange Rates

The real exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the goods and services of one country for the goods and services of another.

Real Exchange Rates

The real exchange rate compares the prices of domestic goods and foreign goods in the domestic economy. If a case of German beer is twice as

expensive as American beer, the real exchange rate is 1/2 case of German beer per case of American beer.

Real Exchange Rates

The real exchange rate depends on the nominal exchange rate and the prices of goods in the two countries measured in local currencies.

Real Exchange Rates

The real exchange rate is a key determinant of how much a country exports and imports.

R eal ex ch an g e ra te =N o m in a l ex ch an g e ra te D o m estic p rice

F o re ig n p rice

Real Exchange Rates

A depreciation (fall) in the U.S. real exchange rate means that U.S. goods have become cheaper relative to foreign goods.

This encourages consumers both at home and abroad to buy more U.S. goods and fewer goods from other countries.

Real Exchange Rates

As a result, U.S. exports rise, and U.S. imports fall, and both of these changes raise U.S. net exports.

Conversely, an appreciation in the U.S. real exchange rate means that U.S. goods have become more expensive compared to foreign goods, so U.S. net exports fall.

A FIRST THEORY OF EXCHANGE-RATE DETERMINATION: PURCHASING-POWER PARITY The purchasing-power parity theory is the

simplest and most widely accepted theory explaining the variation of currency exchange rates.

The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity

Purchasing-power parity is a theory of exchange rates whereby a unit of any given currency should be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all countries.

The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity

According to the purchasing-power parity theory, a unit of any given currency should be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all countries.

Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity

The theory of purchasing-power parity is based on a principle called the law of one price. According to the law of one price, a good

must sell for the same price in all locations.


If the law of one price were not true, unexploited profit opportunities would exist.

The process of taking advantage of differences in prices in different markets is called arbitrage.


If arbitrage occurs, eventually prices that differed in two markets would necessarily converge.

According to the theory of purchasing-power parity, a currency must have the same purchasing power in all countries and exchange rates move to ensure that.

Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity

If the purchasing power of the dollar is always the same at home and abroad, then the exchange rate cannot change.

The nominal exchange rate between the currencies of two countries must reflect the different price levels in those countries.

Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity

When the central bank prints large quantities of money, the money loses value both in terms of the goods and services it can buy and in terms of the amount of other currencies it can buy.

Figure 3 Money, Prices, and the Nominal Exchange Rate During the German Hyperinflation

10,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000,000

100,000

1

.00001

.00000000011921 1922 1923 1924

Exchange rate

Money supply

Price level

1925

Indexes(Jan. 1921 5 100)


Limitations of Purchasing-Power Parity

Many goods are not easily traded or shipped from one country to another.

Tradable goods are not always perfect substitutes when they are produced in different countries.

Summary

Net exports are the value of domestic goods and services sold abroad minus the value of foreign goods and services sold domestically.

Net capital outflow is the acquisition of foreign assets by domestic residents minus the acquisition of domestic assets by foreigners.

Summary

An economy’s net capital outflow always equals its net exports.

An economy’s saving can be used to either finance investment at home or to buy assets abroad.

Summary

The nominal exchange rate is the relative price of the currency of two countries.

The real exchange rate is the relative price of the goods and services of two countries.

Summary

When the nominal exchange rate changes so that each dollar buys more foreign currency, the dollar is said to appreciate or strengthen.

When the nominal exchange rate changes so that each dollar buys less foreign currency, the dollar is said to depreciate or weaken.

Summary

According to the theory of purchasing-power parity, a unit of currency should buy the same quantity of goods in all countries.

The nominal exchange rate between the currencies of two countries should reflect the countries’ price levels in those countries.

International Financial Market: introductory remarks

PLAYERS IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS (IFM)

COMPANIES

MULTINATIONAL

INSTITUTIONAL

INVESTORS

PRIVATE

INVESTORS

FOREIGN

EXCHANGE EXPOSURE

GLOBAL

FINANCING

GLOBAL

INVESTMENTS

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS

Governement, Central Banks

International Institutions

INTERNATIONAL

FINANCIAL MARKETS

DERIVATIVE PRODUCTS

FOREX MARKET

EUROCURRENCY MARKET

EUROCURRENCY DEPOSITS EUROCREDITS EURONOTES Eurocommercial paper RUFs, NIFs

BOND MARKET

DOMESTIC FOREIGN Yankees, Samurais, Bulldogs, Rembrandts, Matadors,… EUROBOND Straight, Dual currency, Convertibles, Floating rates

EQUITY MARKETS Euroequity, ADR’s, Mutual Funds, …

Options, Futures Forward Contracts

Options, Futures FRAs

Options, Futures, Swaps, Caps,

Floors, Swaptions

Options, Futures

Eurocurrency markets

Eurocurrency - any currency held in time-deposit outside its country of origin.

Eurodollars - dollar denominated deposits held in a bank outside the U.S..

Structure of Foreign Exchange Markets

Customer buys $

with euro

Local bank

Stockbroker

Major banks

Interbank market

IMM

LIFFE PSE

Foreign

Exchange Broker

Local bank

Stockbroker

Customer buys

euro with $

Organization and Characteristics of FOREX Markets

Spot and forward markets

Many buyers and sellers, so no buyer or seller dominates

Transactions are quick, buy/sell decisions have to be made very quickly

Low transactions costs

Open virtually 24/7.

Reasons to Use FOREX Markets

Export and Import Transactions Triangular arbitrage in the Spot Market Hedging on foreign investment Forward speculation Interest arbitrage Engage in a speculative attack on a foreign currency

Nature of Foreign Exchange Market

Efficient Large number of diverse buyers and sellers (breadth). Significant market activity (buy/sell) with any change in

value (depth). Market returns to normal price quickly after any

significant price swing (resiliency).

Worldwide over-the-counter trading.

Nature of Foreign Exchange Market (continued)

Major participants large multinational banks. Central Banks.

Transfer process is through interbank clearing systems. Spot vs. Forward Transactions

Delivery in the spot market takes place within 2 business days.

Forward contracts are typically written for delivery in 30, 60, 90, or 180 days.

Exchange Rate, Balance of Payments and International Financial Market: a review Roberta De Santis...

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