Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author:...
Transcript of Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author:...
![Page 1: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
6/25/2019
-
David P . S chneider (NC AR ); J an L enaerts (C U); J ennifer K ay (C U); Matthew Gentry (C U); C lara
Deser (NC AR )
![Page 2: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
6/25/2019
It snows a lot in Antarctica and it’s cloudy
MODIS mosaic image from Jan 27, 2009, earthobservatory.nasa.gov
Annual SMB (mostly snow): ~2000 Gt/yr
~6mm sea level equivalent
Clouds!
![Page 3: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
6/25/2019
Meanwhile, Antarctica is loosing mass…
IMBIE Team (2018), Nature Average rate of mass change over 25 years:
-109 Gt/yr
![Page 4: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
6/25/2019
-change in S MB over ~40 years
IMBIE Team (2018), Nature
![Page 5: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
6/25/2019
CMIP5 multi-model ensemble Precip could increase by ~45% or not much at all!
RCP 8.5
![Page 6: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6/25/2019
Kay et al., 2016
modified shallow convection scheme increases supercooled
cloud liquid, brightens low-level clouds
CESM 1.1 ‘LENS’ CESM 1.1 ‘CLDMOD’
ASR = absorbed shortwave radiation at TOA
![Page 7: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
6/25/2019
Large Ensemble “LENS” 1850 controlYear 1
year 2000
CLDMOD 1850 control
CLDMOD 1850 control (same as LENS, except for the aforementioned parameterization change + tuning)
Year 1year 400+
10 “low ozone”ensemble members50 years each
10 “low ozone”ensemble members50 years each
overlap period used to calculate responses (first 5 years excluded)
overlap period used to calculate responses(first 5 years excluded)
![Page 8: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
6/25/2019
Prescribed ozone change over 60S-90S
”WACCM” ozone
• relatively strong Antarctic ozone hole; compares well with obs (Marsh et al., 2013)
• ozone data is global, includes troposphere
• control runs have an 1850s ozone climatology
• “low ozone” is a monthly varying climatology from years 1996-2005
![Page 9: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
6/25/2019
-mean responses (DJ F )
![Page 10: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
6/25/2019
-mean responses (DJ F )
![Page 11: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
6/25/2019
-mean responses (DJ F )
![Page 12: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
6/25/2019
P recipitation & Z500 responses (DJ F )
LENS CLDMOD CLDMOD-LENS
![Page 13: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
6/25/2019
P recipitation response (annual)
LENS
+ 34.1 Gt/yrCLDMOD
+109.6 Gt/yr
![Page 14: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
6/25/2019
-
Z500 & interbasin correlationshigh-low precip years) (basin8) Basin 13
CLDMOD-LENS
Fyke et al., (2017), The Cryosphere
![Page 15: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
6/25/2019
-
LENS CLDMOD CLDMOD-LENSTS
![Page 16: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
6/25/2019
-
LENS CLDMOD CLDMOD-LENS
TGCLDLWP
![Page 17: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
6/25/2019
-
LENS CLDMOD CLDMOD-LENS
LHFLX
![Page 18: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
6/25/2019
• A significant increase in Antarctic precipitation in response to ozone forcing is enhanced in a cloud-modified version of CESM1.1. • CLDMOD average increase: 110 Gt/yr• LENS average increase: 34 Gt/yr; consistent with Lenaerts et
al. (2018)
• Dynamics: A poleward shift in the storm track, combined with amplified stationary waves as the flow interacts with Antarctic orography
• Thermodynamics: Increase in SSTs, tropospheric warming, and evaporation in CLDMOD, driven in part by a more positive shortwave cloud feedback
![Page 19: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
6/25/2019
-CLDMOD-LENS (DJF)
Precip & Z500 (total) Precip & Z500 (stationary component)
![Page 20: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
6/25/2019
-
LENS CLDMOD CLDMOD-LENSCLDTOT
![Page 21: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
6/25/2019
Shortwave radiation biases– a key source of uncertainty?OBS (CERES) CESM 1.1
ASR
OLR
RT
Obs.&
Diffs
2000-2014
Figure: courtesy K Trenberth & J Fasullo
S. Ocean – too much
Tropics – too little
![Page 22: Example title for dark background template · Example title for dark background template Author: Microsoft Office User Created Date: 6/25/2019 1:55:34 PM ...](https://reader031.fdocuments.in/reader031/viewer/2022013023/5fdc3026c5141659be651214/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
6/25/2019
Meanwhile, Antarctica is loosing mass…
• Ice shelf thinning• Calving• Acceleration of outlet glaciers