Examination of the Mitigation Sections

of the Initial Communications

The CGE Global Hands-on Training Workshop on Mitigation AssessmentsSeoul, Republic of Korea, 26–30 September 2005

Thematic Group on Mitigation

Consultative Group of Experts (CGE)

Background

Guidelines for the preparation of initial communications by parties not included in Annex I to the Convention (Annex to decision 17/CP.8)

Reporting on climate change: User manual for the guidelines on national communications from Non-Annex I Parties

Decision 3/CP.8, Terms of Reference, paragraph 9

31 NCs from NAI Parties were examined

List of national communications

Africa

BeninBurkina FasoCameroonCentral Africa RepublicComorosDjiboutiEritreaGabon (French)GambiaGuinea (French)KenyaMadagascar (French)MalawiMauritania (French)NamibiaNigeriaSouth AfricaSudan SwazilandUgandaTanzaniaZambia

Asia and the Pacific

BangladeshCambodiaChina (Chinese)DPRKIndiaIranKyrgyzstanNepalPakistanPalauSolomon IslandsTajikistanViet Nam

Latin America and the Caribbean

BelizeBrazilDominican RepublicTrinidad & Tobago

Total : 42 NCsExam. : 31 NCs

Others

AlbaniaMaltaThe former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Criteria for examination

1 Social and economic development framework for climate change mitigation

2 Main national economic and social development trends, including expected GHG emissions

3 Approaches used to conduct mitigation analysis, e.g., top-down or bottom-up

4Tools/models and methods used to assess mitigation, sectors analyzed, data and/or information gaps, and limitations of the technical resources

5 Identification of mitigation options related to the most important future sources and sinks sectors

6 Screening of mitigation options

7 Assessment of reduction potential and cost of mitigation

8Integration of GHG reductions and costs across measures and sectors, through the construction of GHG mitigation marginal cost curves

9Qualitative description of main macroeconomic impacts of national climate change mitigation strategies

10 Assessment of key macroeconomic parameters

11 Barriers and opportunities for implementation

12 Programs and measures implemented or planned that contribute to mitigate climate change

13 Projects aimed at reducing GHG emissions and enhancing the removal by sinks

Summary of examination

The scope, coverage and depth of reports vary significantly among Parties.

Information that many Parties elaborated well include:

Social and economic development framework for climate change mitigation

Identification of mitigation options related to the most important future sources and sinks sectors

Barriers and opportunities for implementation

Programs and measures implemented or planned that contribute to mitigate climate change

Summary of examination

Information that many Parties didn’t elaborate well include:

Tools/models and methods used to assess mitigation, sectors analyzed, data and/or information gaps, and limitations of the technical resources

Integration of GHG reductions and costs across measures and sectors, through the construction of GHG mitigation marginal cost curves

Qualitative description of main macroeconomic impacts of national climate change mitigation strategies

Assessment of key macroeconomic parameters

Mitigation assessment

Most Parties provided general information on the social and economic development framework for CC mitigation

Several Parties showed the main national economic and social trends, including GHG emission outlook

Time horizon: 2010, 2020, 2030 or 2100(Kyrgyzstan)

Many Parties provided only historical trends

No GHG emission forecast by many Parties

Technical resources for mitigation analysis

Major approach: bottom-up

Both B-U and T-D approaches by some Parties (India, Brazil)

Tools/models and methods

Major tools: LEAP and COMAP

MAKAL, EFOM, COPATH used by several Parties

Some Parties addressed the problem of lack of data

Baseline, mitigation scenarios and projections

Major parts that most Parties had difficulties in elaborating the information

Identification and screening of mitigation options relative well elaborated by many Parties

Many Parties didn’t provide any results on assessment of reduction potential and cost of mitigation

No GHG mitigation marginal cost curve by integration of GHG reductions and costs across measures and sectors

Tanzania: MC curves for energy and forestry sectors for 2030

No macroeconomic assessment for mitigation options

Barriers and opportunities for implementation

Most Parties elaborated challenges/limitations well and described needs of financial and technical supports, capacity building, etc.

Implications and Recommendations

Technical difficulties in analyzing mitigation potentials, costs and macroeconomic impacts

Technical support and capacity building for mitigation analysis needed for preparation of the informative second and where appropriate third NCs

Heavy data requirement

Standardization of time period for GHG emission projection and mitigation assessment

Problems to solve & Further works by CGE

Completion of examination for all 42 NCs

Cross check of examination results by thematic group members

Scope of report

10/CP.2: refers only to programs containing measures to address climate change

17/CP.8 & User manual: not for the initial communication

Thematic group: 10/CP.2 including information which are not required by 10/CP.2, but provided.