Exame Médico da Floresta Amazônica Brasileira: Situação Atual … · Exame Médico da Floresta...
Transcript of Exame Médico da Floresta Amazônica Brasileira: Situação Atual … · Exame Médico da Floresta...
Exame Médico da Floresta
Amazônica Brasileira:
Situação Atual e AmeaçasHealth Check on Brazil’s Amazon Rainforest: Status and Threats
Philip M. Fearnside
National Institute for Research in Amazonia – INPA
http://philip.inpa.gov.brSymposium on Research on the Amazon rainforests. Hamburg. 4 Mar. 2011.
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xa
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Ano
Taxa anual de desmatamento
Changes in vegetation biomassbetween the present day and the 2080s
–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8
kgC/m2
–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8
kgC/m2
[Hadley Centre, 2000]
500
Kilometersi
Legend:
Number of dry months
Non TF areas
0 - 1
1 - 2
2 - 3
3 - 4
4 - 5
5 +
500
Kilometersi
Length of dry season
Derived from the New et al 2001 dataset
Legend:
Multivariate ENSO index
-0.4 - -0.3
-0.3 - -0.2
-0.2 - -0.1
-0.1 - 0
Non TF areas
0 - 0.2
550
Kilometersi500
Kilometersi
Impact of El Nino
Malhi and Wright 2004 Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical forest
regions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
Published by AAAS
A. T. Evan et al., Science 324, 778 -781 (2009)
Fig. 4 Map of linear trends in observed SST (A) and the residual SST (B)
Published by AAAS
A. T. Evan et al., Science 324, 778 -781 (2009)
Fig. 2 Time series of mixed layer response to dust and stratospheric aerosol forcing (A) and observed SST anomalies (B)
This is especially critical because studies
have estimated a reduction in Atlantic dust
cover of 40 to 60% under a doubled carbon
dioxide climate (33), which, on the basis of
model runs with an equivalent reduction of
the mean dust forcing, could result in an
additional 0.3° to 0.4°C warming of the
northern tropical Atlantic. Evan et al. 2009, pp. 780-781
These calculations suggest that 69% of the
recent upward trend in northern tropical
Atlantic SST is due to changes in aerosols.
33=Mahowald, N. M., and C. Luo (2003), A less dusty future?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1903
Fig. 1 (A and B) Satellite-derived standardized anomalies for dry-season rainfall for the two
most extensive droughts of the 21st century in Amazonia.
S L Lewis et al. Science 2011;331:554-554
Published by AAAS
Damage and mortality of trees (%/yr)
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e d
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os (
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Y = 3.64 - 0.75 log X
R=0.51, P=0.0002
Mo
rtality (
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ear)
Distance to edge (m)
Nascimento and Laurance, 2004 Ecol. Appl.;
Painéis Suportes
CalhasDrenos
Redução de
50-60% da
precipitação
Experimentos de exclusão de chuvas – simulando el niños de longa
duração – Projetos LBA/ESECAFLOR e LBA/SECA FLORESTA