evsjv`k Dbœqb mgx¶v LÐ 35 evwl©K msL¨v 1424 evsjv`ki A...

evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv

L 35 evwlK msLv 1424

evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi wbqvgKmg~n:

GKwU UvBg wmwiR weklY

mwjg ivqnvb*

gv: Iqvwn` di`m Beb**

1| fwgKv

^vaxbZv cieZx mgq evsjv`k A_bwZK I mvgvwRK Dbqbi ek KqKwU avc

AwZg KiQ| 1971 mvji gywhy `ki cvKwZK mì evcK qwZ nq Ges

cKZ wRwWwci ( ) AwZ wb cew wbq ^vaxb `k wnme evsjv`k hvv i

Ki| Avq I cewi AwZ wb wbq hvv MZ mvo Pvi `kK wewfb Av_-

mvgvwRK m~PK `k AbK DbwZ jvf KiQ| Gme ARbi ^xKwZ mwZ evsjv`k

wb Avqi `ki ZvwjKv _K ei nq wb gag Avqi `ki ZvwjKvq Afy nqQ|

Ze miKvi NvwlZ 2021 mvji ga gag Avqi `k nZ nj RvZxq Avqi cew

AviI eMevb Kivi weK bB|

MZ KqK `kK ai RvZxq Avqi geagvb cew Abvb `ki mv_

evsjv`ki gvbyli Rxebhvvi gvbi eeavb eoB PjQ (Khan 1995)| gvbe mì

wb gvb, yej AeKvVvgv, I we`kx wewbqvMi weiZv, LvZwbfi evRvi e_Zv

(market failure), Zzjbvg~jKfve wb e`wkK evwYR I ybxwZ BZvw` Gic eeavb

Kgvbv A_bwZK Dbqbi cieZx c_ cavb evav nq AvQ| Ggb

ev eZvq Kx Kx MwZgq Dcv`vbi (dynamic factors) Dci wfw Ki eZgvb evsjv`ki

A_bwZK cew AwRZ nQ Ges fwelZ Kx Kx Dcv`vb DP I UKmB cewi wfw nq

ùvove mwU Rvbv LyeB iZc~Y|

evsjv`k gvbe mì wb gvbK wkvi wb wewbgq (low returns to education)

viv evLv Kiv hZ cvi| Barrow and Lee (2000) hyw w`qQb h, wkvi gvb wbwZ

KiZ cvij evsjv`k AviI DP cew ARb mg nZv| ^v Ges Abvb mvgvwRK

g~jabmg~n gvbe mì Dcv`vb njI wkvKB gvbe mì gvg e`wj (proxy)

wnme fvev nq (Barrow 2001)| ^vaxbZvi m~PbvjM nZ wbKU AZxZ ch wkvi YMZ

gvb ARbi Pvi Zzjbvq wkvi nvi evovbvi cwZB ewk iZvivc Kiv nqQ| GgbwK

D wkvi nvii mdjZvi MI aygv cv_wgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvii (net enrollment

rate) chvR; gvawgK Ges DP wkvi nvi `k GLbv AbK wcwQq AvQ

* AavcK, A_bxwZ wefvM, XvKv wekwe`vjq|

**MelYv mnhvMx, (weAvBwWGm)|

evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv

30

(Rahman and Yusuf 2010)| DP wkvi wbU fwZi nvi evsjv`k gag Avqi `kmg~n

Zv eUB, `wY Gwkqvi `kjvi Mo nvi _KI AbK wcwQq AvQ| myZivs mvgbi

w`bjvZ evsjv`ki Pjgvb cewi PvKv KZ`~i mPj _vKe Ges cewi MwZ evovbv hve

wKbv Zv AbKUvB wbfi Kie wkvi nvi I YMZ gvb evovbvi Dci|

` gvbe mì cvkvcvwk cZ e`wkK wewbqvM (GdwWAvB) GKwU `ki

A_bwZK Dbqbi iZc~Y wbqvgK| ivRbwZK Aw iZv, eemv cwiPvjbvi DP LiP I

A_bwZK KgKvi wb wewbgq (low return) `k wb GdwWAvB Avmvi `vqx|

GZ`mI, mg cevwlK cwiKbvq evsjv`k miKvi 2020 mvj bvMv` 9.6 wewjqb gvwKb

Wjvi GdwWAvB AvKlYi j wi KiQ| DP GdwWAvB Avmvi nvi Ges DbZ

gvbemì wg_wqv njB Kej GKwU `ki A_bwZK Dbqb MwZ AvmZ cvi ej wKQz

wKQz A_bxwZwe` gb Kib (Alfaro and Chandra 2006)| myZivs A` kg kw I wb

GdwWAvBK `ki A_bwZK AMMwZi c_ AvMvgx w`bi evav wnme MY Kiv hZ cvi|

LvZIqvix cybMVb cwqv Ges D`vibwZK evwYRbxwZK beB `kKi ii w`Ki

A_bwZK Dbqbi wnme wPwZ Kiv hvq| m mgq nvi Kgvbv I A evav

`~ixKiY wQj Lye iZc~Y wmvjvi ga | Ze GLbv `wY Gkxq AvwjK

mnhvMxZv msv (mvK) Ges `wY c~e Gwkqvi `kjvi msv (Avwmqvb)-Gi

`kjvi mv_ I AvwjK evwYR ewi gvag A_bwZK DbwZi myhvM iqQ|

Avwki `kKi ii w`K `ki Kwl LvZ miKvwi nvm Kivmn AbK D`vibxwZ

MnxZ nq, hvi ga DjLhvM njv KlKì dmj Drcv`bi Rb mvi cvw mnRjfKiY,

Lv` wecYb eevq cwieZb, AvaywbK hcvwZZ fZzwK Zzj `qv BZvw` (Mujeri and Sen

2003)| fwelZ KwlLvZ Avkvbyic mdjZv ARbK AvaywbK chyweve bxwZ , KwlK

jvfRbK I AwaK Drcv`bkxj KiZ cYv`bv c`vb Ges wb Avqi gvbyli cywi K_v gv_vq

iL Drcv`b cwqvK AwaKZi ` I Kiv Riwi| GQvov cvKwZK `yhvMi dj

A_ev `Zvi Afvei KviY Drcvw`Z eo GKwU Ask web nq hvIqv iva Kiv

mvgbi w`bjvZ Lv` wbivcvi ck eo Aivq|

DcivjwLZ HwZnMZ LvZ (traditional sector) QvovI mvebvkxj LvZ hgb, Z_ I

hvMvhvM chyw, Kwl , Pvgov wk I Jla wki Dbqb miKvwi I emiKvwi

LvZi KvhKi `ki gvU `kR Drcv`b I Gi cewK BwZevPKfve cfvweZ

Kie (Raihan et. al. 2017)| GQvovI wewbqvM I evwYRi we`gvb evav ~ixKiY

Ges kvmb eevi KvVvgvMZ cwieZbi gvag mì ` eenvi wbwZ Kiv iZc~Y

(Ahmed 2014)| eZgvb ce evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi MwZ-cKwZ Ges AvMvgx w`b

GKwU UKmB I DP cewi avivq DbxZ nIqvi Rb iZc~Y cfveKjv Kivi Pv

Kiv nqQ|

ivqnvb I Beb: evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi wbqvgKmg~n: GKwU UvBg wmwiR weklY

31

2| evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi aviv

RvZxq Avqi gv 1.76 kZvsk evwlK cew wbq mii `kK evsjv`k hvv i Ki

(wP 1)| AwZ wb cew wbq hvv ii cieZx mgq G`ki A_bxwZi AwbwnZ kw

ej GB cew ew cq 2011-2015 mgqKvj Mo 6.32 kZvsk nqQ| wP 1

_K weMZ 44 eQi evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi kwkvjx BwZevPK aviv j Kiv hvq|

Mujeri and Sen (2003) GB BwZevPK cwieZbi cQb RbmsLv , wk gZz nvi

Kg Avmv, Avevw` Rwgi cwigvY Kgvi ciI Lv` qsm~YZv ARb I Dbqb cwqvq

gwnjvì AfzwKiYK ^vaxbZvi cieZx `yB `kKi bxie RvMi wnme wPwZ

KiQb| Gi AeewnZ ci 1990 Gi `kKi ii w`Ki D`vi AvR vwZK evwYR bxwZ

Ges GKB `kKi kl w`Ki DP Kwl cew D `kKi gvU `kR Drcv`bi cewK

mvo Pvi wbq hvq (Khan 2001)| Avwk I beBqi `kK RvZxq Avqi QvU

wfwi Dci Ggb mvlRbK DbwZ cieZx `kK cew ARbi c_ BwZevPK

cv_wgK kZ wnme KvR KiQ| gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi ew, wk gZzi nvi nvm,

AeKvVvgv ,BwZevPK cvwZvwbK BZvw` 2000 cieZx mgq fvjv cew

ARb mnvqK fwgKv cvjb KiQ|

wP 1: evsjv`k cKZ wRwWwc cewi EaMwZ

Drm: World Development Indicators (WDI-2015) Gi Dcvi wfwZ jLKqi wnmve|

3| MelYv cwZ

beac`x A_bxwZZ RvZxq I Gi cew evLvi c_g cfvekvjx Z njv mjv

cew Z (Solow 1956)| GB cei cvqvwMK Z Ges AvjvPbv g~jZ mjv

AvjvK Mo DVQ| cewi MwZkxj DcKi/mg~n (dynamic factors) evLv Kivi

j mjv mmvwiZ ic cqvM Kiv nqQ|

1.76

4.02

4.68

5.58

6.32

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1972-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2015

cK

Z wR

wWwc

i c

ew

i n

vi (

%)

eQi

evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv

32

mjv / g~jZ `xNgqvw` A_bwZK cew wbq AvjvKcvZ Ki _vK| GB Z

gZ GKwU `ki `xNgqvw` A_bwZK cew ev Avq cew wZbwU PvwjKvkw viv wbavwiZ

nq; () cwigvY, () Kg jvKi , Ges () Drcv`b cwZi

`Zv| mjv gWji mvaviY mgxKiY Gic

Y = F (K, L, A) ()

= F (

,

, A) ()

GLvb,

Y = RvZxq Avq (gross domestic product)

K = cwigvY (capital)

L = Kg jvKi (labor)

A = Drcv`b cwZi `Zv (state of technology)

Gic mgxKiYK Cobb-Douglas Drcv`b w`q evLv Kiv hvq| eZgvb ce

eeZ Cobb- Douglas wbic

log = 0 + 1 log + 2 log + (3)

GLvb,

RGDPt = cKZ wRwWwc (real gross domestic product)1

EMPLOYHCt = Kg jvKi (gvbe m` mgqKZ) (human

capital adjusted number of employed persons)2

CAAPt= cwigvY (total gross fixed capital formation)3

et= gWji Aewk (Residual term)4

1 World Development Indicators (2015)

2 Kg jvKi Ges cuywR eZxZ gWj gvbe m`KI mwbek Kiv nqQ| Kg

jvKi Dcvi mv_ gvbe mì DcvK Y Ki gvbem` mg^qKZ Kg jvKi

PjK Zwi Kiv nqQ| Kg jvKi (number of employed persons)

World Economy Database 9.1 ( human capital index) Peen World Table (PWT 8.1) 3 cwigvY (total gross fixed capital formation) World Economy

Database 9.1 4gwjK Drcv`b AcKi GB Aewk AskwUi KviYB mjv gWjK Exogenous gWj ejv nq Ges GB

AskwUB GB gWji A-evLvKZ Ask, hvi Ab bvg gvU Drcv`b `Zv ev wUGdwc|


33

Z gZ, Kg jvKi Kgmsvb evovi mv_ cKZ wRwWwci abvZK

mK (1abvZK) Ges cwigvY evovi mv_ cKZ wRwWwci abvZK mK

(2abvZK) _vKv cZvwkZ|

wKy _K cvwK cvwi nvi mgqi mv_ KgZ _vK (diminishing marginal

rate of return of capital), GB wVK ai wbj K`xfwZi gvag gv_vwcQz Avq

ew `xNw`b eRvq ivLv me bq| G aibi GKwU A_bxwZK bZzb GKwU

mvgvevq (steady - state) wbq hZ cvi wVKB, wKy mB mvgvevq c uQvbvi ci Avi

bZzb Ki cew ARb Kiv hvq bv| H Aevq ( cvwK cvwi nvi wb:kl nIqvi ci)

`ki A_bwZK cew eRvq ivLvi GKgv nvwZqvi njv Drcv`b cwqvi `Zv evovbv, hv

gwjK mjv GKwU A-evLvKZ Ask (et) Ges GwU /gWji evBi _K

wbavwiZ nq| ZvB G aibi gWjK ewn:cfvweZ (exogenous) gWj ejv nq|

G aibi gWji Ab GKwU ewk njv, kZhy GK-K`vwfgyLZv (conditional

convergence)| GB ewkwUI cvwK cvwi nvi KgZ _vKv viv evLv Kiv hvq|

Mwie `kjvi hnZz cwigvY Kg _vK mnZz abx `kjvi Zzjbvq Mwie

`kjvi cvwK cvwi nvi ewk _vK, ZvB `kjv mgcKwZi (homogeneous)

nj mjv gWji Aaxb Mwie `kjv GK mgq abx `kjvi mgvb DbwZ jvf Kie Ges

Zvì mgK nq hve| mjv gWji gZv be ac`x Z GwU nIqv me, G aibi

Z Drcv`b cwqvi `Zvi (total factor productivity ev wUGdwc) welqwU A-evLvKZ

Ask (et) wnme _K hvq| myZivs-

TFP =

[a (

) + b (

)] (4)

hLvb, a Ges b nj h_vg Drcv`b ( capital) I ( labor) Avjv`v

Avjv`v Ask| myZivs mjv gWj eenvi Ki I Ae`vbK fvjvfve evLv Kiv

MjI RvZxq Avq wUGdwci fwgKv evLv Kiv hvq bv| mjv gWji GB mxgveZvi

cieZx aviv cew Zi De NU hvì ewn:cfvegy (endogenous) cewi Z ejv

nq|

G avivi cfvekvjx Zjvi ga Romer (1994), Lucas (1988), Ges Rebelo

(1991) DvweZ Zjv AbZg| Gme Z gZ gvbem` (hgb, wewbqvM, ^v

wewbqvM) AeKvVvgvi Aev, cvwZvwbK mgZv BZvw` wUGdwc Z_v A_bwZK cewi

iZc~Y wbqvgK|

GKwU `ki A_bwZK, ivRbwZK I mvgvwRK cwZvbjvi mgZvi mv_ m `ki

wUGdwci abvZK mK iqQ (Acmaglo et.al. 2004)| A_bwZK cwZvbjv ` nj

GKRb kwgK AwaK KvR Kivi cvb, GKRb D`vv AwaK nvi wewbqvM Kivi

cYv`bv cvb, hv kl wePvi `ki A_bxwZK BwZevPKfve cfvweZ Ki| AvgjvZi

evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv

34

YMZ gvb, ybxwZi gvv, wewbqvM cwiek, MYZvwK , miKvii wwZkxjZv I

AvBbi kvmb njv gvUv `vM GKwU `ki cvwZvwbK `Zvi gvcKvwV, hv m `ki

A_bwZK AMMwZK eMevb KiZ fwgKv ivL|

A_vr, Endogenous cewi Zi aviYv gZ, wUGdwcK wbvfve eYbv Kiv hvq

TFP = F (A, M, ) (5)

hLvb, TFP = gvU DcKi mgZv ev wUGdwc

A = Drcv`b cwqvi `Zv

M = cvwZvwbK wbqvgKmg~n

= Abvb wbqvgKmg~n

GB ce mjv gWji gwjK Endogenous cew Zi AvjvK

mmvwiZ Kiv nqQ| GZ Drcv`b gwjK wbqvgKmg~n wUGdwci

Dcv`vbmg~n `kxq Avqi cewi Dci cfve wbYq Kivi Pv Kiv

nqQ| mmvwiZ wbic:

log = 0 + 1 log + 2 log + 3 + (6)

hLvb,

Zit = wbw` mgq i Zg wUGdwci

i = ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ, Avg`v-wRwWwc AbycvZ, evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ, miKvii

Uvdvi eq, cZ we`kx wewbqvM (GdwWAvB), FYi myì nvi, g~jxwZ, wkgZz nvi,

gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi, AeKvVvgv Ges cvwZvwbK Aev|

Vt= gWji Aewk (Residual)|

wUGdwci mnM 3 ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ, Avg`v-wRwWwc AbycvZ, evwYR-wRwWwc

AbycvZ, miKvii Uvdvi eq-wRwWwc AbycvZ, cZ we`kx wewbqvM (GdwWAvB),

gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi, AeKvVvgv I cvwZvwbK Aev Rb abvZK I FYi myì

nvi, g~jxwZ I wk gZz nvii Rb FYvZK wP hy ne Abygvb Kiv hvq| cew

Zjv evLv Kivi Rb evsjv`ki A_bxwZi wewfb m~PKi gvU 44 eQii (1972-

2015) Dcv eenvi Kiv nqQ| Drmjv njv World Economy Database

Version 9.1 (Alphametrics Co. Ltd. ), Peen World Table (PWT 8.1)

Ges wekevsK Gi Word Development Indicators (2015)|


35

4| BKvbvgwUK weklY

4.1| PjKjvi wbjZvi (Stationarity) cixv

GKwU UvBg wmwiR hw` GKK g~j (Unit root) cvIqv hvq Zvnj ZvK Non-

Stationary ejv nq| evwlK UvBg wmwiR mvaviYZ Non-Stationary nq _vK| GB

ce Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Awfvi (Dickey and Fuller 1979) gvag

GKK g~j (Unit root) Kiv nqQ| ADF Awfvi djvdj _K `Lv hvq h,

cew gWj eeZ meKwU PjKB ic (level form)

GKK g~j AvQ Ges ic (first difference form) Kvbv

, mejv - I(1)| ADF Awfvi djvdj mviwY 1-G

Zzj aiv njv|

mviwY 1 : ADF Awfvi djvd cf`KiY eZxZ (level form) Ges GKevi cf`KZ (first difference) ic

PjK ADF mnM BwUMkb AWvi ADF mnM BwUMkb AWvi

A-cf`KZ ic GKevi cf`KZ ic

cKZ wRwWwci jM . I(1) -.*** I(0)

Kg

(gvbe m` mg^qKZ) jM

-. I(1) -.*** I(0)

cuywRi cwigvYi jM . I(1) -5.577*** I(0)

gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi -. I(1) -2.966** I(0)

wk gZzi nvi -. I(1) -4.401*** I(0)

evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ -. I(1) -7.003*** I(0)

Avg`vwb -wRwWwc AbycvZ -. I(1) -8.249*** I(0)

ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ -. I(1) -6.388*** I(0)

GdwWAvB-wRwWwc AbycvZ . I(1) -4.865*** I(0)

miKvwi Uvdvi eq -wRwWwc

AbycvZ

-. I(1) -7.511*** I(0)

FYi myì nvi -. I() -4.418*** I(0) g~jxwZi m~PK () . I(1) -3.399* I(0)

AeKvVvgv -. I(1) -1.635* I(0)

cvwZvwbK Aev -. I(1) -4.082*** I(0)

m~: jLKqi cvjb|

UxKv: *, ** I *** h_vg 10%, 5% Ges 1% gvvi A_c~Y I(1) = GKwU GKK g~j, I(0) = k~b GKK g~j ev wbj|

evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv

36

4.2| PjKjvi mve Kv-BwUMkb cixv

Johansen (1991) Gi gZ, `ywU Non-stationary UvBg wmwiR ciii ga Kwg

mK (spurious relation) Zwi KiZ cvi, hw` Zviv Kv-BwUMUW bv nq| GB ce

Johansen Co-integration Awfvi gvag PjKmg~ni ga Co-integration U Kiv

nqQ| GB Ui djvdj Abyhvqx gwjK mjv gWj Ges mmvwiZ mjv gWji ^vaxb

PjKi mv_ Aaxb PjKi (cKZ wRwWwc) Kgc GKwU Co-integrating mK cvIqv

MQ (mviwY 2 I 3)|

mviwY 2: gwjK Drcv`b AcK/gWji Rb Johansen Co-integration Awfvi djvdj

Awfvi aib ayeK Ges

ceYZv ewZZ

(no intercept,

no trend)

ayeK mn, ceYZv

ewZZ

(intercept, no

trend)

ayeK mn, ceYZv

ewZZ

(intercept, no

trend)

ayeK I ceYZv mn

(intercept,

trend)

Co-integrating

Trace 3 2 1 2

Max-Eigen 3 2 1 2

Drm: jLKqi cvjb|

mviwY 2 _K `Lv hvQ h, gwjK Drcv`b AcK (production function) Z_v

gwjK mjv gWji Aaxb PjKi mv_ ^vaxb PjKqi GK ev GKvwaK (Awfvi wewfb

Abygvb f`) Co-integration mK we`gvb| A_vr D gWj _K Kvbv `xNgqvw`

mK cvIqv Mj Zv KvhKi mK (causal relationship) ej MY ne|

mviwY 3: mmvwiZ gWji Rb Johansen Co-integration Awfvi djvdj

Awfvi aib ayeK Ges ceYZv

ewZZ

(no

intercept,

no trend)

ayeK mn,

ceYZv

ewZZ

(intercept,

no trend)

ayeK mn,

ceYZv

ewZZ

(intercept,

no trend)

ayeK I

ceYZv mn

(intercept,

trend)

Co integrating

gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi Trace Max-Eigen

4

1

2

2

1

1

1

1

wk gZzi nvi Trace Max-Eigen

4

4

4

4

2

2

3

2

evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ Trace Max-Eigen

2

2

3

3

2

2

3

1

Avg`vwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ Trace Max-Eigen

2

2

3

3

2

2

3

1

(Pjgvb mviwY 3)


37

Awfvi aib ayeK Ges ceYZv

ewZZ

(no

intercept,

no trend)

ayeK mn,

ceYZv

ewZZ

(intercept,

no trend)

ayeK mn,

ceYZv

ewZZ

(intercept,

no trend)

ayeK I

ceYZv mn

(intercept,

trend)

Co integrating

ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ Trace Max-Eigen

3

2

3

2

1

1

2

1

GdwWAvB-wRwWwc AbycvZ Trace Max-Eigen

2

2

3

3

2

2

3

2

miKvwi Uvdvi eq -wRwWwc

AbycvZ Trace

Max-Eigen

2

2

3

3

2

2

3

1

FYi myì nvi Trace Max-Eigen

3

1

2

2

1

1

2

1

g~jxwZi m~PK () Trace Max-Eigen

1

1

2

1

2

1

2

1

AeKvVvgv Trace Max-Eigen

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

cvwZvwbK Aev Trace Max-Eigen

4

1

3

2

1

1

2

1

Drm: jLKqi cvjb|

mviwY 3 _K `Lv hvq h, GB Co-integration mmvwiZ gWji I chvR

Kbbv mmvwiZ gWji wUGdwci cwZwU Dcv`vbK Avjv`v-Avjv`vfve gwjK mjv Z

Afz Ki h djvdj cvIqv hvq ZvZ cwZ B AZ GKwU Co-integration mK

| GB ce Dcv Dfq w`Ki KvhKi mK (bi-directional causality) _vKjI

Zv Dcv Kiv nqQ, KviY GwU cei AvjvPbvi Rb cqvRbxq bq|

5| djvdj Ges cvqvwMK w`K

hnZz Non-Stationary UvBg wmwiRjv cii Co-integrated, mnZz Ordinary

Least Square (OLS) wbfi (regression) cwZi gvag cewi Zjv Kiv

hve| gwjK mjv gWj Ges mmvwiZ mjv gWji djvdj Ges Zvì cvqvwMK

w`Kjv wb AvjvPbv Kiv nqQ|

5.1| gwjK mjv gWj Gi djvdj

( ) djvdj

Abyhvqx `xNgqv` Mo gvbem` mgqKZ Kg Kgmsvb hw`

01 kZvsk ew cvq Zvnj `ki cKZ wRwWwc 0.22 kZvsk ew cvq| Ges `xNgqv` Mo

cwigvY 01 kZvsk ew cj cKZ wRwWwc 0.19 kZvsk ew cvq|

evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv

38

mviwY 4 : OLS wbfiY djvdj (gwjK mjv Z)

Aaxb PjK (cKZ wRwWwci jM) wbfiY mnM t-AbycvZ P-gvb

Kg wbqvwRZ jvKi msLvi (gvbe m` mg^qKZ) jM 0.223*** 5.36 0.000

gvU cuywRi cwigvYi jM 0.190*** 3.88 0.000

m~: jLKqi cvjb|

UxKv: *** = 1 kZvsk gvvq |

Drcv`b AcKi (production function) PjKjv hnZz cii Co-integrated,

Gì ga AekB GKwU fzj mskvab mK we`gvb _vKe, hv g~jZ ^gqvw`

fvimvgnxbZv _K `xNgqvw` fvimvg evLv Ki| cZvwkZfveB gwjK mjv

gWj Gic Error Correction mnM 0.0262 cvIqv MQ, hv Z_MZfve Zvrchc~Y

(statistically significant), Ze FYvZK Ges GKK gvbi _K QvU| A_ vr `xNgqvw`

fvimvg we`y _K hKvbv wePzwZ cwZ eQi 2.62% nvi mskvwaZ nq fvimvg we`yi

w`K wdi Avm|

5.2| mmvwiZ gWj

Drcv`b mKi gwjK DcKi QvovI GKwU `ki `xNgqvw` A_bwZK cew m

`ki wUGdwci Av vi Dci wbfi Ki| mmvwiZ mjv gWji ( ) gvag

wUGdwci wewfb wbqvgK Drcv`b wK aibi fwgKv ivL Zv Zzj aiv nqQ| GLvb

mmvwiZ mjv gWj gwjK mjv gWji DcKimg~ni mv_ wUGdwci cwZwU mve

wbqvgKK Avjv`v-Avjv`vfve GK-GK Ki mwbek Ki `Lv nqQ Zviv wKfve gWjK

cfvweZ Ki| mviwY 5-G mmvwiZ mjv gWji djvdj `Lvbv nqQ Ges cei

cieZx fvM (5.3) djvdjjv wevwiZ AvjvPbv Kiv nqQ|

mviwY : OLS wbfiY djvdj (mmvwiZ mjv Z)

PjK wbfiY mnM t-AbycvZ p-gvb

gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi 0.011*** 6.13 0.000

wk gZzi nvi -0.010*** -15.74 0.000

evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ 0.013*** 12.39 0.000

Avg`vwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ 0.021*** 10.11 0.000

ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ 0.027*** 10.88 0.000

GdwWAvB-wRwWwc AbycvZ 0.172*** 11.60 0.000

miKvwi Uvdvi eq-wRwWwc AbycvZ 0.046*** 12.27 0.000

FYi myì nvi -0.028*** -5.23 0.000

g~jxwZi m~PK () -0.001* -1.74 0.094

AeKvVvgv 0.114*** 20.20 0.000

cvwZvwbK Aev 0.042*** 3.55 0.001

m~: jLKqi cvjb|

UxKv: *** = 1 kZvsk gvvq , * = 1 kZvsk gvvq Zvrchc~Y|


39

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1972 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015gva

wgK

wk

vi wbU f

wZ

(e

nro

llme

nt)

(%

)

eQi

5.3| mmvwiZ gWji evLv

5.3.1| gvawgK wkvi DP nvi cewi Rb mnvqK

wkvi nvi Ges YMZ gvbK ew Ges RvZxq Avqi iZc~Y wbqvgK wnme MY Kiv

nq _vK| GKRb wkwZ kwgK Zzjbvg~jK Kg wkwZ kwgK _K ewk Drcv`bkxj Ges

GB ewaZ kl wePvi RvZxq Avq ewK Ki| msLvi wePvi gvawgK

chvqi wkvi wbU fwZi nvi evsjv`k DjLhvM AMMwZ ARb KiQ Ges G nvi 1972

mvji 16 kZvsk _K ew cq 2015 mvj 52 kZvsk cuQvq (wP-2) wKy G nvi AviI cqvRb| GB ce gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvii mv_ cKZ wRwWwci mK

Pv iv nqQ Ges BwZevPK mK cvIqv MQ| gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZ

(enrollment) GK kZvsk cqU ew cj Mo cKZ wRwWwc 0.011 kZvsk ew cvq|

`ki gvawgK wkvi GB nvi ewK ^ I `xNgqvw` D`vM bqv evbxq| G

wkK-Qv AbycvZ evovbv, wkv AeKvVvgv DbZ Kiv I cvwZvwbK chvq mgmv Kiv

Mj wkvi nvi I YMZ gvb ew Kiv me ne Ges RvZxq Avqi cewZ Zvi BwZevPK

cfve cvIqv hve|

wP 2: evsjv`k gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi

Drm: World Economy Database (9.1) Gi Dcv|

5.3.2| wb wkgZz nvi cew evovq

MZ Pvi `kK wk gZzi nvi Z Kwgq Avbvi evsjv`k mgZvi cwiPq

w`qQ| GB nvi cwZ nvRvi 1972 mvji 148 _K Kg 2015 mvj 30.7 G bg

evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv

40

GmQ| MZ 20-30 eQi hver evsjv`k wek v msvi (WHO) Expanded Programme

on Immunization (EPI) Kgm~wP ev evqb wnme GB wb wk gZz nvi

ARb KiZ ciQ| Sarkar et. al. (2015) Gi Z_ gZ, enr wUKv`vb Kgm~wPi

Kvi 1987-2000 mvji ga AvbygvwbK 2 wgwjqb wki gZz cwZiva Kiv me

nqQ| DPT/PENTA3 wUKv`vb Kgm~wPi evw 1988 mvji 16 kZvsk _K ew Ki

2013 mvj 92 kZvsk DbxZ Kiv nqQ, hv ewkK Mo _K AbK ewk Ges DbZ weki

Gic nvii mv_ ZzjbvhvM| GgbwK wk gZz nvi Kgvbv Ges wUKv`vbi evw evovbvi

evsjv`k Zvi cwZekx `k fviZ I cvwK vbi _KI Zzjbvg~jKfve fvjv KiQ|

2010 mvj I cvwKvb wUKv`vb Kgmw~Pi evw wQj h_vg 50.9 I 74 kZvsk Ges

GKB mgq evsjv`k GB nvi wQj 80 kZvsk| D wZbwU `ki ga 1972 mvj

wkgZzi nvi mevP wQj evsjv`k wKy 2015 mvj Gm m wP e`j wMq evsjv`ki

wkgZzi nvi Aci `ywU `k _K AbK Kg GmQ (wP 3)| mmvwiZ mjv gWji

cvjb Abyhvqx wk gZzi nvi hw` 1 cqU Kg cKZ RvZxq Avq Mo 0.01 kZvsk ew

cvq|

wP 3 : fviZ I cvwK vbi Zzjbvq evsjv`ki wk gZzi nvi

Drm: World Economy Database (9.1) Gi Dcv|

5.3.3| AwaK e`wkK evwYR RvZxq AvqK BwZevPKfve cfvweZ Ki

ZvwK wePvi GKwU D`vibwZK evwYRbxwZ cwZhvMxZv ew, `Zv ew, Dvebx gZv

I bZzb chywi gvag Drcv`b cwqvK ` Ki Zvj| AvRvwZK evwYR

dj GKwU cYi Zzjbvg~jK g~j cwiewZZ nq Ges mì ` eb wbwZ Kiv me nq|

AvRvwZK evwYRi dj bZzb bZzb evRvi DbvwPZ nq I Kgmsvb ew cvq|

wk g

Zzi

nvi

(cwZ

nvR

vi)

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

1972 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

evsjv`k cvwKvb fviZ


41

^vaxbZv cieZxKvj evsjv`k AvRvwZK evwYR ek KqKwU cybMVb cwqv KiQ|

hvi dj `ki evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ, Avg`vwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ Ges ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ

1972 mvji h_vg 10.6, 6.5 I 4.1 kZvsk _K ew cq 2015 mvj h_vg 41.7,

23.3 I 18.4 kZvsk DbxZ nqQ (wP 4)| GB ce `ki A_bwZK cewi Dci

AvRvwZK evwYRi wK aibi cfve AvQ Zv mmvwiZ mjv gWj viv evLv Kiv nqQ|

wbfiY djvdj Abyhvqx evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ, Avg`vwb-wRwWwc Ges ivwb-wRwWwc

AbycvZi mnM abvZK Ges Z_MZfve Zvrchc~Y (statistically significant)| evwYR-

wRwWwc AbycvZ, Avg`vwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ Ges ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ GK kZvsk cqU ew

cj cKZ wRwWwc Mo h_vg 0.013, 0.021 I 0.027 kZvsk cqU ew cvq| `wY-

Gwkqv Ges `wY-c~e Gwkqvi `kjvi mv_ AvwjK I wcvwK chvq AwaKZi KvhKi

A_bwZK mK Rvi`vii j evsjv`ki bxwZwbaviKì AviI KvhKi c`c bqv

cqvRb| I A evav ~ixKiY, cwienb I we`yr LvZ wewbqvM I mnhvMxZv ew

BZvw` c`c evsjv`ki e`wkK evwYRi cwigvY evovZ Ges kl wePvi DP cew

ARb mnvqK fwgKv ivLZ cvi| GKB mv_ ewkK Pvwn`vi mv_ Zvj wgwjq ivwb

egyLxKi, bZzb ivwb evRvi Abymvb BZvw` c`c KvhKifve ev evqb Kiv cqvRb| AvwjK evwYRi `Z eagvb A_bxwZ hgb `wY c~e Gwkqv I c~e Gwkqvi `kjvi

mv_ evwYR mK Dbqbi DciI `ki fwelr A_bwZK Dbqb wbfi Kie (Raihan

2017)|

wP 4: evsjv`ki evwYR-wRwWwci AbycvZ

Drm: World Development Indicators (2015) Dcvi wfwZ jLKqi wnmve|

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

evwYR

wR

wWwc

AbycvZ

imp_gdp exp_gdp trade_gdp

evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv

42

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Bangladesh

India

China

Thailand

Indonesia

Vietnam

wbU Gd wW AvB cevn (wRwWwci kZvsk)

`k

5.3.4| DP e`wkK wewbqvM Ges cew

cZ e`wkK wewbqvM (GdwWAvB) A_bwZK cewi AviKwU iZc~Y wbqvgK,

wekl Ki evsjv`ki gZv ^vbZ `ki Rb| GdwWAvB GKwU ^vbZ `kK KvwiMwi

I chywMZ `Zv ARb mvnvh Ki, hv wUGdwcK BwZevPKfve cfvweZ Ki| 2015

mvj evsjv`k 2.2 wewjqb GdwWAvB GmQ hv wRwWwci AbycvZ gv 1.73

kZvsk, hwÌ mg cevwlK cwiKbvq miKvi 2020 mvj bvMv` GdwWAvB Avmvi cwigvY

9.6 wewjqb gvwK b Wjvi DbxZ Kivi j wbavi KiQ| GdwWAvB AvKlY Gwkqvi

Abvb `ki Zzjbvq evsjv`k AbK wcwQq iqQ| hgb fviZ, Pxb, _vBjv,

B`vbwkqv I wfqZbvgi Zzjbvq evsjv`ki GdwWAvB-wRwWwc AbycvZ mewb| cew

gWji cvjb Abyhvqx GdwWAvB-wRwWwc Ab ycvZ hw` GK kZvsk cqU ew cvq Zvnj

`ki cKZ wRwWwc Mo 0.17 kZvsk cqU ew cve| AwaK Y GdwWAvB AvKlY

KiZ nj ivRbwZK , AeKvVvgv Dbqb I eemv-evwYRi LiP Kgvbvi weK

bB| miKvi NvwlZ 100wU wekl A_bwZK Aji mdj ev evqb me nj GdwWAvB

AvKlY weivU |

wP 5: Gwkqvi KqKwU `ki GdwWAvB-wRwWwc AbycvZ|

Drm : World Development Indicators (2015) Dcvi wfwZ jLKqi wnmve|

5.3.5| Uvdvi eve` miKvwi eq wRwWwc evovq

mvgvwRK wbivcv ev Uvdvi eqi gvag miKvi `ki Zzjbvg~jK `wi

RbMvxi Avq I fvM ewZ fwgKv iL _vK| gWji djvdj _K `Lv hvq, miKvwi

Uvdvi eq evoj `ki cKZ wRwWwc ew cvq| Uvdvi eq GK kZvsk cqU ew cj

`ki cKZ wRwWwc Mo 0.05 kZvsk cqU ew cvq| Uvdvi eq Kej GKwU `ki

cKZ wRwWwcB evovq bv, AwaKy GKwU mylg mgvR ~ | Mwie eve cew

ARbi j miKviK G aibi Uvdvi eqi Drm I evw AviI mmvwiZ Kiv

cqvRb|

wfqZbvg

wfqZbvg

B`vbwkqv

_vBjv

Pxb

fviZ

evsjv`k


43

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

miK

vwi U

vd

vi e

q-wR

wWwc

AbycvZ

eQi

wP 6 : wRwWwci AbycvZ wnme miKvwi Uvdvi eq ewi wP

Drm: World Development Indicators (2015) Gi Dcv|

5.3.6| wb myì nvi cew eve Ges g~jxwZ wZKi

FYi myì nviK `Lv nq wewbqvMKvix evsK _K h UvKv avi bb Zvi evRvi g~j

wnme| myZivs mB g~j ev myì nvi hZ Kge GKRb wewbqvMKvix wewbqvM ZZ ewk

DrmvwnZ neb Ges AwaK wewbqvM wRwWwcK mivmwi BwZevPKfve cfvweZ Ki| wP 7

_K `Lv hvQ, MZ 15 eQi evsjv`k GB myì nvi 10-14 kZvski ga IVvbvgv

KiQ| gWji djvdj Abyhvqx FYi myì nvi GK kZvsk cqU Kgj Mo cKZ wRwWwc

0.03 kZvsk ew cvq| myZivs emiKvwi wewbqvM ew I wRwWwc cew ZivwbZ KiZ FYi

myì nvi Kgvbv GKwU fvjv bxwZ nZ cvi|

wP 7 : evsjv`k MZ 15 eQi myì nvii IVvbvgv


2000

2008

2004

2006

2010

2012

2014

2016

eQi

jvw

s m

yì n

vi (

%)

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2002

evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv

44

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

gve

vBj

dvb

ee

nvi

Kvi

x (cwZ

100 R

b)

eQi

èg~j ew evsjv`ki cKZ wRwWwcK evavM Ki| eg~j ew cj kwgKi cKZ

gRywi Kg hvq Ges GKB mv_ ewi fvMi Pvwn`v Kg, hv kl wePvi RvZxq AvqK

Lvivcfve cfvweZ Ki| wbfiY djvdj Abyhvqx, wmwcAvB (consumer price index) GK

cqU ew cj Mo 0.001 kZvsk nvi cKZ wRwWwc Kg hvq|

5.3.7| AeKvVvgv Ges cew

AeKvVvgv Dbqb, wekl Ki hvMvhvM AeKvVvgvi Dbqb GKwU `ki UKmB I DP

cew c~ekZ| DbZ AeKvVvgv hvZvqvZ LiP mgq jvNei cvkvcvwk

Drcv`bi DcKiY mg~ni `Zv ewi gvag wUGdwc I cew ew Ki _vK| evsjv`ki

gZv gag Avqi `k DbxZ nZ BQzK `k G aibi AeKvVvgv Dbqb AviI ewk

iZc~Y| AeKvVvgvMZ cwimsLvb mnRjf bv nIqvq G ce gvevBj dvb I jv

dvbi gvU eenviKvixi msLvK AeKvVvgv Dbqbi weK m~PK wnme bqv nqQ, hv

_K `Lv hvq 2015 mvj ch `ki 81 fvM gvbyl gvevBj dvb eenvi Ki| gWji

cvjb Abyhvqx gvU Uwjdvb eenviKvix 1 kZvsk ew cj `ki cKZ wRwWwc

0.11 kZvsk ew cvq|

wP 8 : gvevBj dvb eenvi ewi wP 2000-2015


5.3.8| cvwZvwbK `Zv ev YMZ gvb iZc~Y

cvwZvwbK `Zv cwigvc KiZ GB ce GKwU m~PK Zwi Kiv nqQ hLvb

International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) (www.prsgroup.com) 6wU iZc~Y

m~PK eenvi Kiv nqQ| Gjv njv AvgjvZi YMZ gvb, `ybxwZ ivai Aev,

http://www.prsgroup.com/


45

wewbqvMi cwiek, MYZvwK , miKvii wwZkxjZv I AvBbi kvmbi Aev|

D ICRG m~PKmg~ni cwigvci j wfb wfb nIqvq mejv m~PKK mewb 0 _K

mevP 10 Gi j cybivq cwigvc Kiv nqQ| evsjv`k 1984 mvji

GB m~PK 2.15 5.62 G | gWji djvdj `LvQ cvwZvwbK

`Zv ew cj cew ew cvq| cvwZvwbK `Zvi m~PK 1 cqU ew cj `ki

cKZ wRwWwc 0.04 cq ew cvq| wUGdwci wi v

(statistically significant) 6| Dcmsnvi

GB ce MZ 44 eQi evsjv`ki A_bxwZi cewi MwZ cKwZ chvjvPbv Kiv Ges

wbqvgKjv wbaviY Kivi Pv Kiv nqQ| GB Pvi `kKi ewk `k cew ARbi

c_ AbK ~i AMmi nqQ| 1990 c~eeZx mgqi ek wKQz ARbi ga mvgvwRK I

A_bwZK wewfb m~PK mvlRbK DbwZ AMMY, dj 1990 cieZx `v AviI

`Z cew ARb me nqQ| wk gZzi nvi DjLhvMfve KgQ, evwYR D`vi nIqvi

ìb evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ eoQ, cv_wgK I gvawgK wkvi nvi DjLhvM nvi

eoQ, cvkvK wk AfZc~e DbwZ mvwaZ , Kwli cew ejvsk eoQ hv wecyj

RbMvxK Lv` qsm~Y KiQ, mevcix AeKvVvgv I cvwZvwbK Dbqb nqQ| `ki

RvZxq Avqi cewi gwjK Y QvovI Abme wbqvgK

BwZevPKfve , hv wUGdwcK BwZevPKfve cfvweZ KiQ| djic RvZxq

Avq I mì AwZ wb wfwi Dci ` uvwoqI mii `kKi hywea `k cieZxZ AbK

cvKwZK ` yhvMmn bvbv cwZKjZv AwZg Ki mwZ GKwU wb gag Avqi `k DbxZ

nqQ| GB ce evsjv`ki Gme ARbi cQbi cfveKjv hgb AvjvPbv Kiv nqQ

Zgwb fwelZi mve Dbqbi wbqvgKjv LuyR ei Kivi Pv Kiv nqQ| GB cei

cv djvdj gZ A_bwZK Dbqbi cieZx avc DbxZ I wbKU fwelZ gag Avqi `k

nZ nj A_bwZK bxwZ cYqb ~i`wkZv, cvwZvwbK `Zv ew, AeKvVvgvi evcK

Dbqb I wewbqMi (wk I ^v eq ew) gvag RbwgwZK myweavi mevP

eenvi wbwZ Kiv iZc~Y| Gme cwieZbi Rb evcK nvi emiKvwi wewbqvM

ew Ges GdwWAvB AvniY Riwi| A_bwZK I ivRbwZK cwZvbjvi `Zv ewI

mgfve iZc~Y|

evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv

46

Mcw

Alfaro, L. and A. Chanda (2006): How Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote

Economic Growth? Exploring the Effects of Financial Markets on Linkages,

presented at Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics Summer Workshop,

NEUDC.

Ahmed, S. (2014): Searching for Sources of Growth in Bangladesh, The First BEF

Conference, Radisson Blu Water Garden Hotel Dhaka, June.

Barro, R. J. (2001): Education and Economic Growth. Available at:

www.oecd.org/edu/innovation-education/1825455.pdf

Barro, R. J. and J. W. Lee (2000): International Data on Educational Attainment:

Updates and Implications, Centre for International Development, Working Paper

42.

Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. A. Robinson (2004): Institutions as a Fundamental

Cause of Long-run Growth. Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume IA.001:

lO.l016/Sl574-W84(05)OloW.

Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979): Distribution of the Estimation for

Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical

Association, 74(366):427-431.

Government of Bangladesh (2015): 7th Five Year Plan, General Economics Division,

Ministry of Planning, Dhaka.

Johansen, S. (1991): Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in

Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models, Econometrica, 59( 6):1551-1580.

Khan, A. R. (2001): Bangladesh Economy 2000: Selected Issues A Review, The

Bangladesh Development Studies, 27(2): 95-114.

______(1995): A Quarter Century of Economic Development in Bangladesh: Successes

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Lucas, R. E. (1988): On the Mechanics of Economic Development, Journal of

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Mijeri, M. K. and B. Sen (2003): A Quiet Transition: Some Aspects of the History of

Economic Growth in Bangladesh, 1970-2000, Bangladesh Country Paper, Global

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Rahman, J. and A. Yusuf (2010): Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Experience and

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Raihan, S. et al. (2017): Bangladesh Sectoral Growth Diagnostic, DFIDs Economic

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