Adventures in Web Design Kathy E. Gill UW, Department of Communication 1 December 2004.
Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Personal Technology & Flatteners Kathy E. Gill 31 October...
-
Upload
shauna-lynch -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Personal Technology & Flatteners Kathy E. Gill 31 October...
Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Personal Technology & Flatteners
Kathy E. Gill31 October 2006
Overview
Course Projects Recap Last Week Guest Speaker Group Discussion Wiki Practice
Project Abstracts State the research area you have selected. (1-2
sentences – preliminary statement is the draft submitted via Peer Review, a Catalyst tool)
Explain why this is an important topic to research. Explain how you visualize breaking your topic into three
timelines (past-present-future). Explain what theories you expect to use to support your
claims. Provide an annotated list of at least five scholarly
resources related to your topic. Each resource should be from a unique source. Remember that the final project must have 12 scholarly citations as well as those from reputable media. Provide proper citation and include the type of information provided, including key arguments.
Generalizations
Missing annotations Citations missing access date Timeline too narrow Formatting:
Don’t “justify”! Think “professional”
Flashback of the week:
This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires and lights in a box. There is a great and perhaps decisive battle to be fought against ignorance, intolerance and indifference. This weapon of television could be useful.
Murrow, 1958, RTNDA Convention
Recap: Theories
Linear innovation-diffusion theory The process by which an innovation is
communicated through certain channels over time among the
members of a social system.
Rogers, 1995, page 5
Recap: Theories
Technological determinism Tech is “autonomous” – out of human
control – the “cause” of change Social construction of technology
Society shapes technology
Guest Speaker: Chris Pirillo
Reading Discussion
15 minutes – marshall your forces! Groups 1-5, in sequence, report on
your section of Friedman Question:
What are the implications for the US economy and position in the world?
Economics & Technology
US Civilian Labor Force Approximately 145 million 6.9 million “unemployed” Economy needs to “grow” by about
150,000-170,000 per month to absorb new entrants For the unemployment rate to drop, the
economy must grow faster than the sum of productivity plus labor force growth.
Supply and Demand
Most widely used economic model Describes how consumers and
producers interact to determine the price of a good and the quantity that will be produced/sold
Demand Curve
Shows the quantity of a good (or service) that consumers are willing to buy at each price
Assumes “all other things” remain constant (static)
Law of Demand: curve slopes “downward” (P on the vertical axis)
Supply Curve
Shows the quantity of a good (or service) that businesses are willing to sell at each price
Assumes “all other things” remain constant (static)
No “law of supply”
Supply-Demand
Types of Goods (1/2)
Non-rival - a good that can be used by more than one person at the same time (an idea)
Non-excludable - it is not possible for the “owner” to exclude others from consuming this good (non-patented idea)
Types of Goods (2/2)
Rival Non-Rival
Excludable
Most consumer goods Private land Services: dental, rental cars, tax prep Single license software
Trade secrets Multi-license software Patents Subscription web sites
Non-Excludable
Public land Most roads Water?
Basic research Defense, police, firemen Lighthouse “Open” websites Air?
Supply of innovation
Dependent on State of scientific/technological
knowledge (technological opportunity) Cost, availability of inputs (knowledge
workers, equipment) Ability to capture increased profits
arising from the innovation (appropriability)
Demand for innovation
Dependent on Cost reduction (process innovation) Consumer benefit from new product
(product innovation) Consumer benefit from improvement in
existing product (incremental product innovation)
Network effects (1/2)
Static analysis: One person’s decision to adopt a new
piece of software (or other technology) has no effect on someone else’s welfare or decision to adopt
Assumes no network externality
Network effects (1/2)
Dynamic analysis: The value of the software (or technology)
depends upon the decisions of others (interoperability, for example)
Assumes there is a network externality
Locked In!
Consumers may be locked into a network because of “cost of exit” (switching) Contracts (cell phone 24-month policies) Training (learn a new system – ugh) Data conversion (from Word to Word Perfect, for
example) Search cost (finding the new product) Loyalty cost (frequent flyer programs, “minutes
carry-over”)
Tipping
As market share increases for any one product (system, technology), there are increasing returns (externality) from increasing consumer demand, leading to dominance by one system
Examples (1/2)
AM v FM radio Beta v VHS Mac v Windows QWERTY v DVORAK
Examples (2/2)
OS/2 introduced in 1991 OS/2 sales = 400K; Win sales = 18M OS/2 technically superior – 32-bit
processing not provided by Win until late 1995
OS/2 withdrawn from market (failed) due to incompatibility with other software (cause of poor sales?)
Market Structure
Number of firms Ease of entry and exit Ability to differentiate product from
competitor’s Four types
Competitive (perfect) markets
Consumers believe products are undifferentiated (substitutability)
Firms can enter/exit freely (low capital investment)
Buyers and sellers know the prices (access to info)
Low transaction costs Firms are “price-takers”
Example: dial up service (ISPs)
Monopoly
One supplier No product substitution Does not lose all sales if it raises price Price setter Natural monopoly: One firm can produce all
output at lower cost than several firms combined Example: water utility, cable utility, MSWindows
(according to US Gov’t)
Oligopoly
A few relatively large firms High barriers to entry Products are good (not perfect) substitutes Each firm can set its price Market failure: sub-optimal consumption
Example: wireless/long distance telecom, cable/satellite/dsl
Monopolistic Competition
Many relatively small firms Freedom of entry/exit Differentiated products > brand
preferences Market failure: excess capacity
Is variety really the spice of life?
Incentives for innovation?
Monopolist has less incentive to innovate Already has some profit Cost reduction is spread over smaller output
Monopolist has relatively more incentive for minor than for major innovations
Kenneth Arrow in Nelson, R. (ed.), The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity, Princeton University Press (1962). Cited by Prof. Bronwyn H. Hall, Berkeley, Economics 124
Economics and Innovation (1/3)
Schumpeter’s first “model of innovative activity suggests that ease of entry will promote innovation and that small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will most often be the vehicles of technological advance.”
Economics and Innovation (2/3)
The “Schumpeter of Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy… conceived of technological progress as emanating from the industrial research laboratories of large firms that enjoyed positions of static market power.”
Economics and Innovation (3/3)
The consensus seems to be that “the level of investment in research and development is likely to be too low, from a social point of view, whether market structure is nearly atomistic, a highly concentrated oligopoly, or something in between.” [Martin 1999]