Evidence of Poverty in Lincoln...Unemployment continues to run high in Lincoln (5.2%) in comparison...
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Evidence of Poverty in Lincoln Statistical evidence used to inform Community Leadership Scrutiny Committee in the review of poverty in Lincoln July 2013
Transcript of Evidence of Poverty in Lincoln...Unemployment continues to run high in Lincoln (5.2%) in comparison...
Evidence of Poverty in Lincoln
Statistical evidence used to inform Community Leadership Scrutiny Committee in the review of poverty in Lincoln July 2013
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For more information on this report, please contact
James Wilkinson Policy and Strategic Information Officer City of Lincoln Council City Hall Beaumont Fee Lincoln LN1 1DD 01522 873325
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Table of Contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................3
2. Map of Lincoln..............................................................................................5
3. Population Growth .......................................................................................6
4. Population Density .......................................................................................7
5. Overall Deprivation ......................................................................................8
6. Income Deprivation ....................................................................................10
7. Employment Deprivation............................................................................11
8. Education, Skills and Training Deprivation.................................................12
9. Unemployment...........................................................................................13
10. Reliance on the Public Sector..................................................................14
11. Social Grade ............................................................................................15
12. Income .....................................................................................................16
13. Child Poverty............................................................................................18
14. Fuel Poverty.............................................................................................20
15. Educational Attainment ............................................................................21
16. Adult Qualifications ..................................................................................23
17. House Prices............................................................................................24
18. Housing Affordability ................................................................................25
19. Mortgage Possession Orders...................................................................26
20. Food Parcels (Lincoln Community Larder)...............................................27
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1. Introduction Reductions in the provision of welfare are reducing the income of many households in the city. It is estimated that welfare cuts will create an overall financial loss in Lincoln of £32 million, equating to an average loss of £491 per working age adult per annum. Impacts are likely to be felt most in the deprived areas of the city. It is estimated that approximately 10,000 Lincoln residents live in areas that are considered deprived. One of these areas features amongst the most 1% deprived in England. Unemployment continues to run high in Lincoln (5.2%) in comparison to the national average (3.9%), peaking in eastern parts of the city such as 8.9% in Abbey, and 8.0% in Park. There is a risk the problem of unemployment in Lincoln could be further exacerbated in light of public expenditure cuts. Estimates suggest there are more than 15,000 people currently working in the public sector in Lincoln. For those that are in employment, evidence from the 2011 Census suggests employees living in Lincoln are skewed towards working in lower social grade occupations, with 33.4% working in semi-skilled and unskilled occupations or unemployed, compared to only 27.9% in the East Midlands, and 25.5% in England. Income level can be a key cause of poverty. Annual gross pay in Lincoln for both full-time and part-time employees living in Lincoln has increased by 3.2% in 2012. Despite this, average pay in Lincoln is only 4.3% higher in 2012 than it was in 2006, compared to 10.1% higher in the East Midlands, and 10.5% higher in England. Additionally, evidence shows a significant gap between the lowest and highest 20% of earners. Both child poverty and fuel poverty remain high in comparison to regional and national rates. Child poverty is particularly high in Glebe where 33.3% of children live in poverty, followed by Moorland (30.9%) and Birchwood (30.4%). In contrast, fuel poverty is highest in areas such as Abbey, where 24.7% of households experience fuel poverty, followed by Park (23.7%) and Carholme (23.1%). Educational attainment in Lincoln remains lower than county rates. The gap between Lincoln and Lincolnshire is widest at KS4. Attainment has dropped at both KS1 (from 75.5% to 74.6%) and KS4 (from 54.8% to 49.0%). In contrast, KS2 attainment saw an increase in attainment (from 69.0% to 79.1%). In 2012, Lincoln had a house price to earnings ratio of 4.8, compared to 6.0 in Lincolnshire, and 6.7 in England. Nevertheless, over the last ten years, house prices in Lincoln have become less affordable, increasing from a ratio of 3.1 in Lincoln in 2002. The number of mortgage possession orders made in Lincoln has, however, reduced, from a high of 215 in 2008, to 67 in 2012. Evidence from local charities shows that a significant number of people in the city are struggling with some of the most basic and essential needs. In February 2012 alone, 2,313 meals were provided by Lincoln Community Larder. This is up from 1,512 in January 2011. Over a 12 month period, from January 2011 to January 2012, the number of meals provided increased by 39%. This stemmed from an increase of 36% in the number of visitors In 2010
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Lincoln Community Larder provided 21,177 meals to local people in need. In 2011, the number of meals increased to 22,149. Early data for 2012 indicated a further increase in demand. This evidence base paints a picture of poverty in Lincoln. It shows many residents face economic disadvantage, which can be manifested in a multitude of ways. This context sets the need for a review of poverty. From access to employment, to increasing household income and from making homes more affordable, this evidence base shows a need for focused action, on the core economic factors that affect the quality of life for so many residents.
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2. Map of Lincoln
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3. Population Growth The mid 2011 population estimates show there are 93,100 residents living in Lincoln. Over the 10 years between 2001 and 2011 the population of Lincoln increased by 8.8%. This is slightly lower than the increase in Lincolnshire’s population overall of 10.2%, but greater than the regional and national rates.
Area
Population in 2001
Population in 2011
Percentage increase
Lincoln 85,600 93,100 8.8%
Lincolnshire 647,600 714,800 10.4%
East Midlands 4,189,600 4,537,400 8.3%
England 49,499,700 53,107,200 7.3% Source: ONS Mid 2011 Population Estimates (2012)
CIPFA has produced a group of authorities that are similar to Lincoln (‘nearest neighbours’). Comparing Lincoln’s population growth since 2001 with these similar authorities, shows that despite Lincoln only having 11th largest population, it is ranked third highest for expansion, with a rate of 8.8%1.
Percentage Change in Population between 2001 and 2011
-2.8%
6.0%
6.8%
5.0%
1.9%
8.8%
6.6%
8.1%
5.7%
1.1%
7.0%
5.4%
10.9%
5.6%
4.3%
14.2%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Bur
nley
Cann
ock Chas
e
Carli
sle
Ches
terfi
eld
Cope
land
Exe
ter
Glo
ucester
Ipsw
ich
Linc
oln
Man
sfie
ld
Pre
ston
Redd
itch
Ste
venag
e
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Worc
ester
Wyr
e For
est
Nearest Neighbour
Perc
en
tag
e C
han
ge
Source: ONS Mid 2011 Population Estimates (2012)
1 ONS (2012) Mid 2011 Population Estimates
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4. Population Density Lincoln has a high population density of 26.2 persons per hectare. This is substantially above the East Midlands and England rates, although both of these areas include substantial rural parts. In comparison with our nearest neighbours, Lincoln ranks as fifth most densely populated district. This is largely due to the compact nature of Lincoln, which covers only 3,569 hectares. Exeter is closest to us concerning population density, with approximately 25 residents per hectare2.
Number of residents per hectare
26.2
4.1
2.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Lincoln East Midlands England
Area
Nu
mb
er
of
resid
en
ts p
er
hecta
re
Source: 2011 Census
Number of Residents in 2011 per Hectare (2001)
12
1
16
1
25
30
34
26
14
10
16
32
5
30
5
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Bur
nley
Cann
ock Chas
e
Carli
sle
Ches
terfi
eld
Cope
land
Exe
ter
Glo
ucester
Ipsw
ich
Linc
oln
Man
sfie
ld
Pre
ston
Redd
itch
Ste
venag
e
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Worc
ester
Wyr
e For
est
Nearest Neighbour
Resid
en
ts p
er
Hecta
re
Source: 2011 Census
2 ONS (2001) NESS Geography
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5. Overall Deprivation The IMD is a national dataset that ranks areas in the country in terms of relative deprivation. These areas are known as Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs), of which there are 32,482 in England. Lincoln is made up of 57 LSOAs; with each ward in the city comprising of either 4, 5 or 6 of these areas. It is useful to look at data at this spatial level as it helps highlight issues closer to a neighbourhood level than ward analysis allows. In the 2007 IMD, 5 LSOAs in Lincoln were ranked within the most 10% deprived areas in England. In the 2010 IMD, this number increased to 7 LSOAs. Of these, 5 were ranked within the most 5% deprived, and one was ranked within the most 1% deprived3. Population estimates tell us that approximately 10,000 residents live in these 7 areas ranked within the most 10% deprived areas of the country.
Source: Department for Communities and Local Government (2011) NB. Population numbers will not calculate to 89,700 as LSOA estimates are from mid-2009 estimates.
In terms of the demographic make up of these 7 areas, it is interesting to note the particular concentration of certain age groups in areas considered relatively deprived. The bold percentage figures below show high concentrations of either a young or an old population (relative to citywide proportions). It emphasises that the geographic distribution of deprivation not only adversely affects some communities; it can also have a particular impact on specific person-
3 DCLG (2011) 2010 Indices of Multiple Deprivation
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characteristics. In this case, we can see that deprivation in parts of Birchwood, Glebe and Moorland will, due to the demographic make up of the areas, particularly impact young people, and conversely, in Castle and Glebe it will particularly affect people aged over 65.
LSOA amongst 10% deprived England
Proportion of LSOA aged under 16
Proportion of LSOA aged over 65
LSOA 26 Abbey ward
14% 14%
LSOA 27 Birchwood ward
27% 12%
LSOA 29 Birchwood ward
34% 6%
LSOA 50 Castle ward
20% 22%
LSOA 52 Glebe ward
31% 8%
LSOA 57 Glebe ward
18% 22%
LSOA 73 Moorland ward
30% 12%4
Lincoln
17.1% 14.1%5
NB. Mid 2009 citywide estimates have been used to correlate with LSOA population data. These proportions may therefore differ slightly from data shown in the chapter on demographic information.
4 ONS (2011) Mid 2009 Population Estimates cited by LRO (2011)
5 ONS (2011) Mid 2009 Population Estimates Analysis Tool
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6. Income Deprivation Proportion of the population living in the most income deprived areas in
England 1% deprived 5% deprived 10% deprived 20% deprived
2007 1.7% 5.4% 13.4% 26.2%
2010 5.4% 5.4% 13.5% 29.7%
The most income deprived areas are in areas traditionally associated with deprivation. These are St. Giles ‘52’ in the north neighbourhood management area, Moorland ‘73’ in the south neighbourhood management area, and Birchwood ‘29’ in the far west of the city. There are also six areas that feature amongst the most 10% deprived in England for income deprivation affecting children (29, 52, 73, 32, 57 and 54), and five areas that feature amongst the most 10% deprived in England for income deprivation affecting older people (52, 32, 73 ,27 and 26)6.
6 DCLG (2012) IMD 2010
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7. Employment Deprivation
Proportion of the population living in the most employment deprived areas in England
1% deprived 5% deprived 10% deprived 20% deprived
2007 0.0% 7.0% 15.6% 27.3%
2010 3.5% 10.2% 18.8% 28.9%
It is perhaps not surprising to see links between areas of high deprivation under this domain, and areas of high deprivation under the income domain7.
7 DCLG (2012) IMD 2010
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8. Education, Skills and Training Deprivation
Proportion of the population living in the most educationally deprived areas in England
1% deprived 5% deprived 10% deprived 20% deprived
2007 1.8% 5.4% 11.8% 29.7%
2010 0.0% 5.4% 13.3% 29.9%
The wards that contain the highest levels of deprivation for this domain are Glebe, Moorland and Birchwood. There has been very little change in deprivation from 2007, and although a slightly higher proportion of the population now live within the most 20% deprived areas in England, there are now no areas in the city that are amongst the most 1% deprived – an improvement from 20078.
8 DCLG (2012) IMD 2010
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9. Unemployment In February 2013, Lincoln’s unemployment claimant rate was 5.2%, compared to 3.8% in the East Midlands, and 3.9% in Great Britain. This, in real terms, accounts for 3,367 unemployment claimants living in Lincoln, a marginal reduction from 3,377 unemployment claimants in February 2012. The unemployment claimant rate varies widely between wards, with Abbey and Park having high rates of 8.9% and 8.0% in February 2013 respectively, and Bracebridge and Hartsholme having low rates of 2.7% and 3.1% respectively9.
Unemployment Claimant Rate
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Jan-
10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0
Oct-1
0
Jan-
11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1
Oct-1
1
Jan-
12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2
Oct-1
2
Jan-
13
Month-Year
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t C
laim
an
t R
ate
Lincoln
East Midlands
Great Britain
Unemployment Claimant Rate by Ward
3.8%
6.0% 5.9%
8.0%
3.1%2.7%
5.9%
8.9%
6.9% 6.4%
3.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Abb
ey
Birc
hwoo
d
Bou
ltham
Bra
cebr
idge
Carh
olm
e
Cast
le
Glebe
Harts
holm
e
Minster
Moo
rland
Par
k
Ward
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t C
laim
an
t R
ate
9 ONS (2013) Unemployment Claimant Rate
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10. Reliance on the Public Sector The ONS estimates that, in the East Midlands, 17.7% of employees (365,000) work in the public sector, mostly in education (111,000), the NHS (96,000) and public administration (66,000). The Business Register and Employment Survey (2011) shows there are 15,131 employees in Lincoln working in the public sector, accounting for 29.0% of all employees. In contrast, there are 388,530 employees in the East Midlands that work in the public sector, accounting for 20.4% of all employees (different to the aforementioned 17.7% due to different data sources). Business Register Employment Survey data for all 326 district and unitary authorities in England, shows Lincoln has the 21st highest proportion of employees working in the public sector. This puts the city in the top 10% of areas in England for reliance on the public sector for employment10. This poses a potential risk to employment in Lincoln given cuts to public expenditure.
10
ONS (2012) BRES 2011
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11. Social Grade The 2011 Census provides us with an approximated social grade for residents aged 16-64. The social grades are:
• AB: Higher and intermediate managerial / administrative / professional occupations
• C1: Supervisory, clerical and junior managerial / administrative / professional occupations
• C2: Skilled manual occupations
• DE: Semi-skilled and unskilled occupations, unemployed and lowest grade occupations
The data shows Lincoln has a lower proportion of the highest social grade residents than in the East Midlands and England, with only 15.5% of 16-64 residents belonging to higher and intermediate professions (compared to 20.0% in the East Midlands and 23.0% in England). In contrast, one third of Lincoln residents are estimated to be in the lowest social grade occupations (33.4%), compared to only 27.9% of East Midlands residents, and 25.5% of England residents11.
Proportion of 16-64 population by approximated Social Grade
33.4%
21.4%
29.6%
15.5%
29.5%
22.6%
27.9%
20.0%
25.5%
20.6%
30.9%
23.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Social grade AB Social grade C1 Social grade C2 Social grade DE
Approximate Social Grade
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f 16-6
4 p
op
ula
tio
n
Lincoln
East Midlands
England
Source: 2011 Census
11
ONS (2012) 2011 Census
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12. Income Annual gross pay in Lincoln for both full-time and part-time employees has increased by 3.2% in 2012, compared to an increase of 1.7% in the East Midlands, and an increase of 1.6% in England. Despite this, over time, Lincoln has seen a lower increase in salary than the region and country. Average pay in Lincoln is only 4.3% higher in 2012 than it was in 2006, compared to average pay in the East Midlands being 10.1% higher than 2006 levels, and the average pay in England being 10.5% higher than 2006 levels.
Annual Gross Pay for both full-time and part-time employed
residents
£0
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
An
nu
al
gro
ss p
ay
Lincoln
East Midlands
England
Lincoln East Midlands England
2006 £17,354 £18,581 £19,719
2007 £18,255 £18,778 £20,354
2008 £19,543 £19,694 £21,172
2009 £19,693 £20,458 £21,680
2010 £20,156 £20,201 £21,564
2011 £17,534 £20,109 £21,454
2012 £18,094 £20,456 £21,794
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The 20th percentile in the graph below shows the estimated pay the lowest 20% of employees earn below. The 80th percentile shows the estimated pay the highest 20% of employees earn above. The data shows there is an estimated £20k difference between the highest point amongst the lowest 20% of earners, and the lowest point amongst the highest 20% of earners in Lincoln.
Analysis of Annual Gross Pay (2011) by Percentile
£10,784£10,016
£21,454£17,534
£36,723
£30,112
£0
£10,000
£20,000
£30,000
£40,000
£50,000
£60,000
£70,000
£80,000
Lincoln England
Area
An
nu
al G
ross P
ay
80th Percentile
Median
20th Percentile
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13. Child Poverty Child poverty is defined as the proportion of children living in families in receipt of out of work benefits or in receipt of tax credits where their reported income is less than 60% of the median income12. The proportion of children living in poverty in Lincoln in 2010 (24.1%) was higher than the national, regional, and county averages. This accounts for 4,500 children in real terms. The proportion showed a marginal decrease from 2009. Child poverty in Lincoln increases to 24.8% when just under 16s are measured13.
Proportion of Children Living in Relative Poverty
20.9%
15.9%
18.4%
24.0%
21.3%
19.1%
16.8%
24.5%
20.6%18.7%
16.7%
24.1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Lincoln Lincolnshire East Midlands England
Area
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f C
hil
dre
n
2008
2009
2010
Source: HMRC 2010 Child Poverty (2012)
12
HMRC (2010) Technical Information for NI 116 13
HMRC (2012) Child Poverty 2010
19
In comparison with our nearest neighbours, Lincoln features as one of the highest areas for the proportion of children living in poverty. The only area with a higher child poverty rate than Lincoln is Burnley, which has a rate of 27.6%.
Proportion of Children Living in Poverty
16.0%
20.7% 19.9%21.6% 21.6%
19.3%17.5%
18.8%18.8%19.5%
23.3%24.1%
17.5% 16.9%
19.0%
27.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Burnle
y
Cannoc
k Chas
e
Carlisle
Ches
terfi
eld
Copeland
Exe
ter
Glouce
ster
Ipsw
ich
Linc
oln
Man
sfie
ld
Preston
Redd
itch
Ste
venag
e
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Worc
ester
Wyr
e For
est
Nearest Neighbour
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f C
hild
ren
Source: HMRC 2010 Child Poverty (2012) The 2010 child poverty data shows Birchwood, Glebe and Moorland have particularly high rates of child poverty. These three wards also have the highest numbers of children living in poverty (690, 570 and 670 respectively). The Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2010 shows us that each of these wards also contain pockets of deprivation. When we look at child poverty at a lower neighbourhood level, we can see the three highest areas in terms of numbers of children living in poverty are in western Birchwood ward (355), St. Giles in Glebe ward (275), and Boultham Moor in Moorland ward (245).
Source: HMRC 2010 Child Poverty (2012)
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14. Fuel Poverty In 2010, Lincoln had a higher proportion of households estimated to be in fuel poverty than both the region and country, with rates increasing even further in certain areas of the city, where almost a quarter of households in Abbey, Carholme and Park considered to be in fuel poverty14. A report by Save the Children estimates that people who pay for their gas through pre-payment meters pay 10% more than those who pay their gas bills by direct debit15.
Proportion of Households in Fuel Poverty
16.4%
19.2%
18.2%
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
19.5%
Lincoln East Midlands England
Area
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f h
ou
seh
old
s
Source: DECC (2012)
Proportion of Households in Fuel Poverty
14.6%
20.7%21.9%
16.5%
11.2%
20.1%21.3%
24.7%
23.1%
13.2%
23.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Abb
ey
Birc
hwoo
d
Bou
ltham
Bra
cebr
idge
Carh
olm
e
Cast
le
Glebe
Harts
holm
e
Minster
Moo
rland
Par
k
Ward
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f h
ou
seh
old
s
Source: DECC (2012)
14
DECC (2012) 2010 Fuel Poverty cited by LRO (2012) Fuel Poverty 15
Save the Children (2007) The Poverty Premium: How poor households pay more for essential goods and services
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15. Educational Attainment Educational attainment in Lincoln remains lower than county rates. The gap between Lincoln and Lincolnshire is widest at KS4. Attainment has dropped at both KS1 (from 75.5% to 74.6%) and KS4 (from 54.8% to 49.0%). In contrast, KS2 attainment saw an increase in attainment (from 69.0% to 79.1%)16.
Educational Attainment in 2011/12
49.0%
80.6% 81.2%79.1%
74.6%
62.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
KS1 KS2 KS4*
Key Stage
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f P
up
ils
Lincoln
Lincolnshire
*including English and Maths
An interesting point to note is the difference between two different measures of KS4 attainment. The first, (shown in the chart above), is the proportion of KS4 students achieving five or more GCSEs grade A*-C including English and Maths. The second is the same measure, except does not include English and Maths as a requirement. For the latter measure, the gap between Lincoln and Lincolnshire is much narrower (only two-percentage points). The gap increases to 13 percentage points when English and Maths is made a requirement, suggesting a lack of skills at KS4 in English and Maths in the city.
16
LCC (2012) Educational Attainment cited by LRO (2013) KS1; KS2; KS4 attainment
22
Proportion of KS4 Pupils achieving five or more GCSEs A*-C in
2011/12
49.0%
62.1%
84.3% 85.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
KS4 including English and Maths KS4 any subject
Measure
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f K
S4 P
up
ils
Lincoln
Lincolnshire
Educational attainment differs in Lincoln. Bracebridge has consistently high rates of attainment across all three key stages. Other areas that score particularly well are Boultham (for KS2), Hartsholme (for KS1 and KS2), and Minster (for KS4). In contrast, Birchwood has particularly low performance (for KS2 and KS4), along with Carholme (for KS2), Glebe (for KS1 and KS2), Minster (for KS1), Moorland (for KS1 and KS4), and Park (for KS4)17.
2011/12 Educational Attainment
KS1 KS2 KS4*
Abbey 78.9% 77.4% 40.2%
Birchwood 76.5% 73.2% 34.0%
Boultham 78.3% 89.2% 59.8%
Bracebridge 84.6% 92.1% 64.4%
Carholme 87.7% 71.1% 61.5%
Castle 70.7% 81.0% 48.2%
Glebe 63.5% 68.1% 43.2%
Hartsholme 85.2% 86.4% 53.1%
Minster 61.3% 84.1% 66.7%
Moorland 64.9% 74.0% 36.5%
Park 76.4% 78.1% 38.1%
Lincoln 74.6% 79.1% 49.0% *including English and Maths
17
LCC (2012) Educational Attainment cited by LRO (2013) KS1; KS2; KS4 attainment
23
16. Adult Qualifications Given the small sample size used for estimating adult qualification levels in Lincoln, rates tend to fluctuate year on year. Nevertheless, data suggests Lincoln, with a rate of 53%, has marginally overtaken the England average for the proportion of 16-64 year old residents educated to NVQ Level 3 or above. NVQ Level 3 is considered the equivalent to two or more A-Levels. Lincoln also ranks third highest for adult qualifications amongst our nearest neighbours18.
Estimated Proportion of the 16-64 Aged Population Educated to NVQ
Level 3 or Higher
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Perc
en
tag
e o
f 16-6
4 P
op
ula
tio
n
Lincoln
England
Source: ONS (2012)
Estimated Proportion of the 16-64 Aged Population Educated to NVQ Level 3 or Higher
41.8%
49.4% 50.6%
39.2%
53.0%
40.5%
49.9%51.6%
44.7%
52.6%
40.3%37.4%
49.3%
56.3%
47.0%
57.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Bur
nley
Cann
ock Chas
e
Carli
sle
Ches
terfi
eld
Cope
land
Exe
ter
Glouce
ster
Ipsw
ich
Linc
oln
Man
sfie
ld
Pre
ston
Redd
itch
Ste
venag
e
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Worc
ester
Wyr
e For
est
Nearest Neighbour
Perc
en
tag
e o
f 16-6
4 P
op
ula
tio
n
18
ONS (2012) Annual Population Survey
24
17. House Prices House prices have risen significantly since 1996, although house prices in Lincoln have remained consistently below the national, regional and countywide averages. From 1996 to 2007, house prices in Lincoln consistently rose year on year to a high of £124,950. However, in 2008 house prices fell in Lincoln, mirroring a fall in prices across the county, region and country. In 2011, houses prices in Lincoln rose to £119,000, an increase of £2,000 from the year before, and the same as 2009 house prices. The average house price is, however, still below the 2007 peak in Lincoln of £124,950. In 2011, the average house price in Lincolnshire was £135,000, and in England was £180,00019.
Median House Price Land Registry Data 1996-2011
£0
£20,000
£40,000
£60,000
£80,000
£100,000
£120,000
£140,000
£160,000
£180,000
£200,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Med
ian
Ho
use P
rice
England
East Midlands
Lincolnshire
Lincoln
Source: Department for Communities and Local Government (2013)
19
DCLG (2011) Table 586 Housing market: median house prices based on Land Registry data, by district, from 1996
25
18. Housing Affordability Lincoln is shown to have more affordable house prices (in comparison to median earnings) than across both England and Lincolnshire (there are no provisional figures available for the East Midlands in 2012). In 2012, Lincoln has a house price to earnings ratio of 4.8, compared to 6.0 in Lincolnshire, and 6.7 in England. Nevertheless, over the last ten years, house prices in Lincoln have become less affordable, increasing from a ratio of 3.1 in Lincoln in 200220.
Ratio of Median House Price to Median Earnings
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
R
2012
P
Year
Rati
o
England
East Midlands
Lincolnshire
Lincoln
Source: Department for Communities and Local Government (2013)
20
DCLG (2013) Table 577 Housing market: ratio of median house price to median earnings by district from 1997
26
19. Mortgage Possession Orders The number of mortgage possession orders made in Lincoln has reduced substantially, from a high of 215 in 2008, to 67 in 2012, showing a reduction of 68.8%21. This reduction gives Lincoln mortgage possession orders at levels akin to the early 2000s, suggesting the negative impact on mortgage possession orders caused by the recession may be dissipating.
Number of Mortgage Possession Orders made in Lincoln
81
142
175
215
111
67
118113
177
60
70
9790
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
ord
ers
21
Ministry of Justice (2013) Mortgage Possession Orders
27
Number of Meals Provided by Lincoln Community Larder
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Jan-
10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-1
0
Sep
-10
Nov-
10
Jan-
11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1
Sep
-11
Nov-
11
Jan-
12
Month-Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Meals
Adult meals
Child meals
Total meals
20. Food Parcels (Lincoln Community Larder)
• In February 2012 alone, 2,313 meals were provided by Lincoln Community Larder. This is up from 1,512 in January 2011.
• From January 2011 to January 2012, the number of meals provided increased by 39%.
• This stemmed from an increase of 36% in the number of visitors.
• From January 2011 to January 2012, demand for adult meals has increased by 41%, and demand for child meals has increased by 33%.
• In 2010 Lincoln Community Larder provided 21,177 meals to local people in need. In 2011 the number of meals increased to 22,149. Early data for 2012 indicated a further increase in demand.
Number of meals The trend in the number of meals provided since January 2010 shows a continuing increase in demand in the city, and reliance on this service for many Lincoln residents in need.
Source: Lincoln Community Larder (2012)
28
Reasons for the increase in demand Lincoln Community Larder highlights a number of reasons for people being referred to them:
• Problems with benefits – particularly in regard to delays when transferring from one benefit to another.
• Some people are being moved from Incapacity Benefit to Jobseekers Allowance, and having their weekly income significantly reduced. Whilst many people are appealing this decision, appeals are taking up to a year to be heard.
• Sometimes the DWP makes mistakes / loses application forms / makes wrong decisions. Appeals can take many months.
• When someone loses their job it can take several weeks for the first payment to start, and if that person or family has been on minimum wage previously, they are unlikely to have anything put by for such an eventuality.
• Additionally, people may have a modest and manageable debt when they are employed, but if made unemployed, making repayments becomes difficult. Some clients have had nothing left for food after paying their essential bills and making a token payment to creditors.
• Claimants are being increasingly sanctioned for minor infringements, such as losing benefits for a week for signing on late22.
22
Lincoln Community Larder (2012)
