Evidence based simulation of the hydrogen...

Copernicus Institute for SustainableDevelopment and Innovation

Evidence based simulation of the hydrogen system

• Promotores: Prof. dr. M.P. HekkertProf. dr. H.M. Amman

• Co-promotor: Dr. F. Alkemade

Alexander van der Vooren


PART I

Research proposal


Introduction

Transition to sustainable energy supply necessary:•Climate change

•Depletion

•Dependence on Arabic countries

Transport sector one of most demanding sectors for fossil fuels

Hydrogen (energy carrier) is a serious candidate,

� Infrastructure necessary


Problems

• Chicken and egg problem

• Infrastructure build up:

– Costly

– Irreversible

– Uncertainty

• Competing technologies

– Electric vehicles

– Biofuels


Question

Which hydrogen infrastructure development strategies are most likely to lead to the successful diffusion of hydrogen as a passenger car fuel?


Theoretical framework

• Hydrogen innovation system (TIS)

– “[A] dynamic network of agents interacting in a specific economic/ industrial area under a particular institutional infrastrcuture and involved in generation, diffusion, and utilisation of technology” (Carlsson and Stankiewicz, 1991, p.93)

• Transitions:

– Demonstration � Niche/early markets � Commercial diffusion

• Diffusion of innovations

– S-shaped curve

– Social learning � networks

– Technological learning � increasing returns to adoption

• Adoption behaviour

– Consumer and supplier adoption � theory of planned behaviour (Ajzen, 2005)

• Competing technological systems

– To be developed


Conceptual model

Hydrogen TIS

Competing TISs

Infrastructuredevelopment

strategies

Diffusion

Fuel providersConsumers

GovernmentManufacturers


Approach

Researchquestion:

Which gradual or staged hydrogen infrastructure development strategies are most likely to lead to the successful diffusion of hydrogen as a passenger car fuel?

Subquestions and projects:

Strategies:

Research project C: Historical patterns of infrastructure development

– What infrastructure development strategies are used in the past with regard to natural gas and Autogas?

Diffusion of innovations:

Research project B: Innovation adoption decision

– What determines the innovation adoption decisions of consumers and fuel providers, how do they interact and which strategies will help the diffusion of the hydrogen innovation system?

Research project A: Towards a theory on competing technological innovation systems

– What are the effects of developments outside the hydrogen innovation system on the diffusion of the hydrogen innovation system?


Simulation model serves as test bed

Infrastructure development strategies

Theory car purchasedecisions

Theory attributesalternative fuels

TheoryDecision makingfuel providers

Theory adoption of alternative fuels providers

Interview expertsDecision makingfuel providers

Stated choice experiment

Consumer behaviour towardsAlternative fuels

Fuel providerbehaviour towards alternative fuels

(B)

Theory consumer behaviour Consumer survey,

Dutch car drivers

Data on adoption behaviour Dutch actors

Theory on infrastructure alternative fuels

Modellingcompeting technologies

Theory on competing technological systems

Theory on simulation competition

(A)

Theory OutputData

Implications for hydrogen innovation system

Method

Performance ofinfrastructure development strategies

Infrastructure development strategies

Theory diffusionAutogas (LPG)Natural gas

Statistics LPG and natural gas

Interview experts in Natural gas andLPG development

(C)

Diffusion patternsalternative fuels

Comparative case study LPG and Natural gas

History friendly simulation

RecommendationsInfrastructure development strategies

Research project C: Historical patterns of infrastructure development

Research project B: Innovation adoption decision

Research project A: Towards a theory on competing technological innovation systems


PART II

Initial infrastructure development strategies for the transition to sustainable mobilityF.J. Huétink, F. Alkemade, A. van der Vooren (2009)

Submitted

Available at:

http://www.geo.uu.nl/isu/isu.html


Introduction

• Avoiding the chicken and egg dilemma:

Install fuel stations in advance

– But how many?

– And where first?

Important for policy recommendations!

Hydrogen roadmap (HyWays)


Research Outline

• Question:What is the relation between initial refuelling infrastructure availability and the expected diffusion pattern of hydrogen vehicles in the Netherlands?

• Theoretical framework:Innovation diffusion theory (Rogers, 2003)

• Method:Agent based simulation


Theoretical framework

• S-shaped curve (Rogers, 2003)

• Heterogeneous adopters: Innovation categories (Rogers, 2003):– Innovators/ Early adopters/ Early majority/ Late majority /Laggards

• Attributes of the innovations (Rogers, 2003):– Relative advantage/ Compatibility/ Complexity/ Trialability/ Observability

• Two processes influence the perceived innovation attributes by consumers:– Technological Learning � increasing returns to adoption (arrow ‘62, Arthur ’89)

– Social Learning � consumers learn about innovations from (observing) other consumers (e.g. Ellison and Fudenberg ’93)• Local network/ Complete (global) network/ Small world network


Diffusion modelHydrogen car

Hydrogen fuel

Consumers

Station owners


• Hydrogen car attributes:

– Relative advantage � Car purchase price

– Compatibility � Fuel availability

– Complexity � Safety concerns

– Trialability � Test driving

– Observability � Visibility of hydrogen cars

Diffusion of hydrogen vehicles

Social network influencesInfluenced by consumer innovativeness


Method

• Agent based simulation:

– Agents� Consumers Fuel stations

– Rules � Fuel availability nr. of adopters in

Car purchase price their vicinity

Social influences

– Environment � simplified


Method

• Agent based simulation:

– Environment � Simplified square grid of the Netherlands

– Agents� Consumers Fuel stations

– Rules � Fuel availability nr. of adopters in

Car purchase price their vicinity

Social influences

Besides: - Social networks (local, global and small world)


Simulation model

• 100,000 consumers

• All owning a conventional car

= +urban

rural

• 50 fuel stations• All offering conventional fuels

=


• Where?

Wide vs Urban

• How many?

2% 8% 18% 32%

Initial strategies

=

= + H2


• Replication of HyWays S-curves with using the substitution model of technological change (Fisher and Pry, ’71)

• HyWays distinguishes between four scenarios:

Learning � Modest or fast

Policy support � High or very high

• No social network effects

Benchmark model


Results


Conclusions andpolicy recommendations

• When social networks are taken into account:– Diffusion is slower than diffusion in the benchmark based on HyWays hydrogen roadmap.

– Quite a large number of initial refuelling stations is necessary (18%) to reach the benchmark diffusion rates

• Nationwide initial infrastructure development strategy is preferable to an urban strategy– Diffusion is very sensitive to technological learning

• Social network effects should be further investigated and taken into account in creating hydrogen technology deployment scenarios and policies:– A small world social network structure seems most favorable to fast diffusion.

Evidence based simulation of the hydrogen...

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