EVENT URL: //energyexemplar.com/wp-content/uploads/Gas... · 2020. 7. 15. · Energy Exemplar is...

EVENT URL: https://susret.hsup.hr/en/ PROGRAMME: https://susret.hsup.hr/en/programme/

JOIN US AT THE LEADING INTERNATIONAL GAS EVENT IN SOUTHEAST EUROPE!

Modeling Gas Challenges in Competitive Market

AGENDA:

• 5-7 minutes – Moderator: DAVOR MATIC, M.Sc., Vice-President of Croatian Gas Association (CGA):

Introduction from CGA moderator event and topic

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

• 15 minutes – Speaker 1: TRACEY GRANGER, Lead Energy Market Analyst for Energy Exemplar –

Co-Optimisation of Electricity and Gas Markets

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

• 15 minutes – Speaker 2:Dr. MICHAEL THOMADAKIS, Partner, Energy Sector for Grant Thornton –

Modelling gas and power markets in Greece, with the view to assess LNG impact

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

• 15 minutes – Speaker 3: IOANNIS CHRISTODOULOU, Senior Energy Market Analyst for Energy Exemplar –

Gas storage optimisation and uncertainty

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

• 15 minutes – Speaker 4: Dr. ANDRZEJ SIKORA, Chairman of the Board for Energy Studies, Institytut Studiow Energetycznych –

LNG perspective for Central and Eastern Europe

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

• 5 minutes – Round Table Discussion – on 2 chosen questions

• 10 Minutes – Questions and Answer session

_________________________________

Power and GasCo-optimisation

Tracey Granger

Energy Exemplar is 100% focused on simulation software

• Trusted as the de facto standard of TSOs around the world

• Tested and proven by the market’s largest network of 1,700+ users

• Chosen by more than 300 customers for multi-million-dollar decisions since 1999

• Shared expertise and best practices across organisations in 60+ countries

• Skilled technical and customer support teams across eight offices worldwide

• Investing in the largest R&D team across the industry

PLEXOS has Multiple Use Cases

Energy Exemplar has the largest installation base globally of any simulation and optimization software

•ENTSO-E, National Grid, TERNA, REE, ENGIE, Shell, IEA, IRENA, EC-JRC….plus 8 out of TOP 10 utilities

Europe

•Saudi Aramco, TRANSCO, DEWA, ADWEC…Middle East

MISO, PJM, NREL, XCEL…North

America

•China Light and Power (CLP)

•AEMO, METI, MHI & all main AUST UtilitiesAsia Pacific

7

Electricity & Gas markets are converging as more linkages emerge

Primary fuelsConversion/processing

technologiesEnd use

Coal

Natural Gas, LPG, Coal Seam Gas

Oil

Renewables

Power Generation

Gas Processing Facilities

Refineries

Hydrogen Production

Industrial

Residential

Commercial

Transport

Electricity Modelling

Gas Modelling

Other: Biomass, Nuclear, etc.

Momentum for change: unintended consequences of stringent climate targets

ENTSOs scenarios show power & gas can no longer be considered separately

• “ENTSOs scenarios are dependent on further development of sector coupling, without these interlinkages a high or even full decarbonisation in the energy sector will not be reached.”

• “P2G becomes an enabler for the integration of variable RES and an option to decarbonise the gas supply.”

• Central case (“National Trends”) predicts 30GW of P2G within 20 yearso More than the peak demand of Poland

o The Distributed Energy case has over 500GW of P2G generating over 800 TWh of gas by 2040 – that is 20% of our current European gas import volume

This model may work for now…

Electricity

Demand

Conventional

Plant

Fuel (Gas)

Heat

Gas

plant

Battery

Renewable

Generation

Electricity

Node

But this is the future…?

Symbol Class Description

Gas Field Field from which gas is extracted

Gas Storage Storage where gas can be injected and extracted

Gas Pipeline Pipeline for transporting gas

Gas Node Connection point to gas network

Gas Demand Demand for gas covering one or more nodes

Gas Zone A collection of Gas Nodes








Gas

field








Industrial








Domestic

LNG

Terminal

Electricity

Demand





























Conventional

Plant

Fuel (Gas)

Gas Node

gDemand

Gas Node

Heat

Gas

plant

Power to X

Plant

H2

Gas storage

Battery

Renewable

Generation

Electricity

Node

12

Power to Gas (P2G) adds essential flexibility to the electricity market…

• The electricity system is a fast, real time system,

resulting in limited long-

term flexibility; whereas the

gas system is flexible and

longer term and can

provide its flexibility to the

electricity system.

P2G generation

High elec. prices

Low elec. prices

• Surplus renewable electricity generation can’t be effectively stored in the

electricity system, so “free” renewable generation has to be increasingly

curtailed

• P2G converts this surplus electricity to gas and stores it instead (as eg hydrogen)• Essentially operating as a battery, but large scale and using the current gas

infrastructure with limited additional investment or technological risk.

13

…and supports decarbonisation

• One of ENTSOs scenarios forecasts a

significant uptake in P2G generation within

15 years.

• The impact can be seen from the CO2

emissions forecast: from 2034, emissions In

this Sustainable scenario are tracking

significantly below those of the basecase.

Change on the emissions pattern 2034 High P2G

utilisation

14

P2G impacts electricity prices…

• Increased electricity load from P2G, EV and electric heating increase power

prices for the next decade2030s: Higher P2G utilisation

Higher integration of

Renewables and higher

curtailed electricity

“Free” curtailed

electricity from RES is

used for electrolysis at

the P2G plants,

depressing prices

Higher P2G utilisation

increases electricity prices

Reference Case

Additional Renewable

Growth Scenario

• In the 2030s, surplus

renewable generation can

be utilised for increased

P2G, depressing electricity

prices as renewables are

increasingly on the margin

…and enables electricity markets to benefit from gas infrastructure

The gas infrastructure

can transport large volumes over long distances at a fraction of the costs when compared to the electricity grid

Comparison between the BBL natural gas interconnector and the BritNed high-voltage direct-current submarine power cable. Both projects required roughly the same investment for their construction, and both connect the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. However, BritNed only possesses a capacity of 1 GW, whereas the BBL pipeline has a total capacity of more than 20 GW, highlighting the comparative advantage of the gas infrastructure

Hydrogen Europe Vision on the Role of Hydrogen and Gas Infrastructure on the Road Toward a Climate Neutral Economy

https://hydrogeneurope.eu/sites/default/files/2019_Hydrogen%20Europe%20Vision%20on%20the%20role%20of%20Hydrogen%20and%20Gas%20Infrastructure.pdf

Much more gas storage than electricity storage is available now

Gas storage volumes is more than 350 times larger than electricity storage volumes in GGI countries

The above Figure underlines the storage potential of, by way of example, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the Czech Republic. Their gas storage volume amounts to 1,200 TWh of natural gas enabling it to cover today’s average EU gas demand for more than three months. Whereas total electricity storages of 1.5 TWh suffices solely to meet the average electricity demand for fewer than ten hours.

• A high-renewable energy source-based electricity system will therefore need to depend on the gas system to provide energy storage.

• The existing gas infrastructure can provide large seasonal storage capacities

Hydrogen Europe Vision on the Role of Hydrogen and Gas Infrastructure on the Road Toward a Climate Neutral Economy

https://hydrogeneurope.eu/sites/default/files/2019_Hydrogen%20Europe%20Vision%20on%20the%20role%20of%20Hydrogen%20and%20Gas%20Infrastructure.pdf

An arbitrage opportunity too big to ignore?

Methanated

gas price

Electricity Price cap

Hydrogen

conversion cost

Electricity Price floor

Arbitrage

opportunity

Electricity priceP2G generation

Questions?

Dr. Michael Thomadakis

Partner, Energy Sector, Grant Thornton

Member of the Board of Appeals, ACER

Webinar: Modeling Gas Challenges in Competitive

Market, 30 June, 2020


20Energy markets modeling and risk management© 2020 Grant Thornton Greece. All rights reserved.

Entering a complex market model Going from “national” to “regional”

• Moving from “national” to “regional”: wholesale markets in

all EU-MS and 10 CCR regions in place

• From 2022 onward market coupling will prevail:

• “National” dispatch, but with an eye in the “region”

• Interconnection capacity becomes “internal capacity” at real

time

• Reserves treated regionally, also at real-time

• Cross-border trade will intensify

• More interconnection capacity will become available as a

result of Regulation (EU) 2019/943 and PCI projects.

• Need to optimise interconnection capacities

• Governance and rule-setting becomes regional (at least):

TSOs and NRAs need to design and decide “regionally”

• Every “national” entity and market participant needs to

think and act “regionally”


Sector coupling becomes increasingly important

Source: EC Quarterly Report Q4 2019

• In the short term, low gas prices, high CO2 prices and new RES capacity

displace solid plant production

• In the long run, gas is a bridge fuel to support decarbonization

• Gas markets and infrastructure may offer proxy-hedging opportunities

• Power and Gas markets need to be considered together

Gas


A new reality emerges in Greece and the neighboring countries

• 4,4 GW of lignite will be

abandoned by 2028

• Target model starts in September

2020 (gradually to June 2021)

• Major gas infrastructure also

operational by the end of 2020

• New FSRUs licensed (ca 5 bcma)

• New CCGTs (2,6 GW) also

licensed

• Renewables penetrating fast

• HEnEx operational: both power

and gas (VTP) by 2021

• A new reality emerges for market

participants

• New challenges and opportunities


Italy

Albania

North

Macedonia

Turkey

Bulgaria

Greece

PP-Natural Gas PP-Coal PP-Hydro PP-PV PP-Wind

Market simulation is a necessity (gas & power Plexos)


The price of gas (including LNG) shall shape the electricity market during at least the next decade

20

25

30

35Greek gas price in 2019

Actual gas price

Simulated gas price

Greece

Power node

Gas node

TurkeyBulgaria

LNG

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Evolution of generation mix

Exports

Imports

Natural gas

Lignite

Wind

PV

Italy


Back-casting of SMP in Greece for 2018-2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

Price [

EU

R/M

Wh]

Weekly system marginal price

Simulated price Actual price

0

20

40

60

80

100

Price [

EU

R/M

Wh]

Daily system marginal price

Simulated price Actual price

2018 2019

r2 0.931270239 0.823349034

rmse 3.43 3.20


Greek day-ahead prices become competitive to IT and BG prices post 2025

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Mo

nth

ly A

vera

ged

DA

Pri

ce [

EU

R/M

Wh

]

Greece Bulgaria

Decommissioning of

1 GW lignite plants

New CCGT [0,3 GW]

Decommissioning of

1.1 GW lignite plants

Decommissioning of 1.4

GW lignite plants

New CCGT [0,8 GW]

New Hydro [0,16 GW]

New Lignite [0,66 GW]

Νew CCGT [0,82 GW]

Decommissioning of 0,9

GW lignite plants

New Hydros [0,7 GW]

Decommissioning of last

lignite plant 0,66 GW

Νew gas [0, 66GW]

+80%

wind

+150%

PV


Market reversal due to climate policies and X-border capacity increase

-1000-750-500-250

0250500750

1000

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Net

po

wer

flo

w [

GW

h]

without market coupling with market coupling new interconnection

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Net

po

wer

flo

w [

GW

h]


The “Clean Spark Spread” curve shows the development of the contribution margins for a CCGT in the Greek electricity market

Cle

an

sp

ark

sp

rea

d [E

UR

/MW

h]

Our estimate on the evolution of clean spark spread in Greece

The vertical red lines implies the variance of the clean spark spread as a function of CO2 prices, gas prices, and total load on the Grid


Changes are expected to appear in day-ahead and RES remuneration prices under Target model and towards 2030

Power and RES remuneration prices

DAM price

ETA-Base case

ETA-Stress test


ENTSOG Cost-Benefit Analysis of gas infrastructure projects

Competition Market Integration Security of Supply Sustainability

ENTSO-G CBA Monetised Indicators

Supply Cost Saving (SCS)

Fuel Cost Saving (FCS)

Monetisation of the avoided demand curtailment (CD)

CO2 savings

Simulation flow- North exit [TJ] Actual flow- North exit [TJ]


CVaR(95%) CVaR(99%) CVaR(99.9%)

Supply

cost

Conditional Value-at-Risk

Under Target model formulating and continuously monitoring hedging strategies and risk exposure is becoming a necessity

Lo

ad

[M

Wh

]

VaR(95%) VaR(99%) VaR(99.9%)

Supply

cost

Value-at-Risk

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Fre

quency

Supply cost

Hedged Unhedged


Concluding remarks

• Electricity and gas markets (and systems) become increasingly interrelated

• Market rules are complex and prices are affected by decisions (and parameters) at

the level of minutes (if not seconds…) with significant cross border implications

• Significant infrastructure development in SEE affects and is affected by the target

model(s)

• Decision making needs sophisticated support

• Market simulation becomes a necessity

• We are progressing with the modelling of the gas and power markets of Greece

and its neighboring countries, but this is a significant investment

• PLEXOS seems to be the right tool for this: it evolves with the market and supports

you as needed!

• Deep knowledge of the markets is of paramount importance


Thank you for your attention!

[email protected]

Uncertainty and gas storage optimization

[email protected]

Agenda

• Co-optimization and uncertainty

• How to deal with uncertainty

• Introduction to the study

• Gas storage optimization and uncertainty

Co-optimization vs Single-system approach

The main difference between the two approaches is based on the way that the problem is formulated and solved

• Single system approach. The software has two separate models/modules and each of them has different system technoeconomic characteristics.

• Co-Optimisation. The coupling equations describing the interconnection between the two networks are solved simultaneously for each simulation time step and account for both system technoeconomic characteristics

Uncertainties in a co-optimised environment

GT1

GT2

NG

Electricity

Electricity

NG WHRB_1

NG

NG ST

WHRB_2

NG

Boiler_1

Heat

Heat

Electricity

Heat

Gas Pipeline

Gas Field 1

Gas Field 2

Gas Node

Gas Node

Gas Flow

Gas Flow

Produced Gas

Produced Gas

HP Steam HeaderHeat Node

Heat Recover Node 2

Heat Recover Node 1

Gas Fuel

Gas Demand

Gas Module

Heat Module

Electricity Module

Heat

Hydro Gen

Electricity

Electricity

Coping with Uncertainty

PLEXOS offers three distinct approaches to coping with uncertainty:

1. Scenario analysis

2. Monte Carlo simulation

3. Stochastic optimisation

In PLEXOS any parameter can easily have uncertainty applied to it.

Common parameters to undertake analysis of include:

• Load growth and load shapes

• Fuel and emission prices

• Renewable uptake and energy production

• Technology cost trends

Monte Carlo Simulation and Stochastic Optimisation

Sample 1

Monte Carlo

simulation 2020 2022

Jan DecFeb

Windy FebSunny April Windy Cost optimal gas

storage trajectory

policy

Perfect foresight for the two years uncertainties

Uncertainties can be

• Load growth and load shapes

• Fuel and emission prices

• Gas supply,

• Random events,

• Variable production cost etc.,


Sample 1

Sample 2

Sample N

.

.

.

.

Monte Carlo


With a perfect foresight we have always the most cost optimal solution but what happens if the we choose (e.g., policy for sample 1) is used on scenario 2


Sample 1 Policy

Sample2

Uncertainties

Monte Carlo


Policy 1 is not suitable for sample 2

Gas trajectories follow wrong pattern

e.g., injection on periods that is not needed and withdrawal in periods will low demand

not needed

needed


Sample 1

Sample 2

Sample N

.

.

.

.

Monte Carlo

simulation

Stochastic

Optimisation

2020

Stochastic

What happens if policy for sample 1 is followed but uncertainties from sample 2 finally happen !!?

2022

Jan DecFeb

PLEXOS Modelling Framework

System Planning and Market Analysis

Infrastructure Planning

Mid Term OperationShort Term Operation

One Single Model

Capital Investment Decisions• Cost Benefit Analysis• Build Decisions –

Generator/Pipeline/Storage/Transmission

• Security & Reliability

Longer Term Decisions• Gas Storage Levels• Fuel Contract

Optimization• Maintenance Scheduling • Climatic Stress Analysis

Operating Characteristics• Ramping Constraints• Start up Constraints • Operational Constraints

5 min1 hour1 month1 year20+ years 1 sec2+ years

PLEXOS case study Gas Storage optimisation

Stochastic Drivers/ Uncertainty

CCGT1

Electricity

NG

NG

Heat

Gas Pipeline

Gas Field 1

Gas Field 2

Gas Node

Gas Node

Gas Flow

Gas Flow

Produced Gas

Produced Gas

Gas Fuel

Gas Demandfor power Generation

Gas Module

Electricity Module

Electricity

Electricity CCGT2

Wind gen1

Wind gen2

Industrial gas demand

PLEXOS case study Gas Storage optimisation

❖ Wind Rating: One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource.

❖ Fuel Price Variation: fuel prices can change the dynamic of the supply stack and can directly affect the demand for gas for power generation

❖ Weather temperature: Variation of the weather temperature affect the demand for gas for heat generation

❖ Industrial Gas Demand: level of uncertainty related to gas demand for industrial use.

Gas storage Withdrawals

Monte Carlo samples

Stochastic

Optimisation Policy

Cost to serve demand

Monte Carlo simulation with

stochastic values from sample

1 but policy from sample 2

Monte Carlo simulation

Sample 1

Gas Demand Shortage





Sample 1

Gas Demand Shortage





Sample 1

Stochastic optimisation

Scenarios trees are used to define non – anticipativity constraints for scenario –wise decomposition formulation

Multistage Stochastic Optimization – Non Anticipativity Constraints

0

1

2

3

Stages

𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥3 𝑥4 𝑥5 𝑥6 𝑥7 𝑥8 𝑥9 𝑥10

𝑥12 = 𝑥2

2 𝑥42 = 𝑥5

2 = 𝑥62

𝑥11 = 𝑥2

1 = 𝑥31 = 𝑥4

1 = 𝑥51 = 𝑥6

1 𝑥71 = 𝑥8

1 = 𝑥91 = 𝑥10

1

𝑥10 = 𝑥2

0 = 𝑥30 = 𝑥4

0 = 𝑥50 = 𝑥6

0 = 𝑥70 = 𝑥8

0 = 𝑥90 = 𝑥10

0

𝑥82 = 𝑥9

2 = 𝑥102𝑥7

2𝑥32

Each decision variable

needs to have non -

anticipativity constraints.

ie:

• Storage Trajectory

• Generation

• Storage End

Volumes

• Transmission flows

Scenario tree dimensionalityWhen using several stages and uncertainties, a huge number of different scenarios is created.

A “stage” is generally a week or month and the horizon is multi-annual, long enough to model very long-term storage

.

.

.

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage TRoot

In general we will have that number of

scenarios are equal to:

Branches_perStage NStages

Example 21 stages and 3 branches per node

321 = 1.04604 × 1010Scenarios!!

The ‘problem’ with multi-stage SO is the simulation size/memory/runtime increases exponentially as stages are added

PLEXOS is using statistical algorithms to reduce the samples and optimise the execution time

END

[email protected]

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

„LNG perspective for Central and Eastern Europe” June 30th. 2020. 54

LNG perspective for Central and Eastern Europe

Andrzej P. Sikora PhD. Eng.,

Energy Studies Institute Ltd.


Disclaimer

The information on which this presentation is based

derives from our own experience, knowledge, data and research.

The opinions expressed and interpretations offered

are those of Energy Studies Institute

in Warsaw and have been reached

following careful consideration.

However, the Oil&Gas business is characterized

by much uncertainty and all of our comments

and conclusions should be taken in that light.

Accordingly, we do not accept any liability

for any reliance which our clients may place on them.


„Your task is not to foresee

the future, but to enable it.”

Antoine de Saint-Exupéry

„Citadelle or The Wisdom of the Sands (1948)”


European natural gas flows

Source: Timera Energy


LNG perspective for CEE – KRK 2021 & GDAŃSK2025

Simplified Western Europe Gas Flow Patterns and Hubs. Source: RBN Energy

https://rbnenergy.com/sites/default/files/styles/extra_large/public/field/image/Fig2_Simplified Western Europe Gas Flow Patterns and Hubs.png?itok=AQd9xK2B


Oversupply in EuropeA rise in global liquefied natural gas (LNG)

supply due to sluggish demand in Asia, two

warm winters and reduced industrial

demand due to the coronavirus pandemic,

have resulted in unusually high European

Gas stocks.

U.S. vs. European Benchmark Natural Gas Prices. Source: Bloomberg

https://rbnenergy.com/sites/default/files/styles/extra_large/public/field/image/Fig1_U.S. vs. European Benchmark Natural Gas Prices.PNG?itok=mTAv2aKY


US LNG export to Europe

Bcm natural gas equivalent

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/?scr=email

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/052820-us-lng-exports-to-europe-already-crumbling-

ahead-of-cancellations

LNG deliveries are expected to be lower. Few dozens of cargoes for

loading in the United States have been cancelled for June and July.

“We now expect around 125 U.S. cargoes to be shut-in this

summer, potentially slashing LNG deliveries to Europe by up to 12

bcm compared to what was expected at the start of the summer,”

consultancy Energy Aspects said.

Qatari deliveries are also expected to be reduced as higher prices

in Asia mean it’s more profitable to send cargoes to India and

northeast Asia, one LNG trader said.

Henry Hub daily natural gas spot price reaches historic low

The average spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub reached

$1.38 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on June 16, 2020,

the lowest daily Henry Hub price without adjusting for inflation and

in nominal dollars since December 1998, according to data from

Natural Gas Intelligence. After starting 2020 relatively low, the price

at Henry Hub so far this summer has continued to trend low

because of high natural gas storage levels and declines in natural

gas demand, specifically in exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG)

feedgas and in the industrial sector.

„LNG perspective for Central and Eastern Europe” June 30th. 2020. 61https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/europe-bailed-out-by-cheap-lng/ar-AABhTR9

Natural gas is no stranger to negative prices in

Europe. U.K.‘s NBP plunged below zero in 2006

after a pipeline opened for commercial imports

from Norway. In the U.S., associated gas, a

byproduct of shale drilling, has periodically gone

negative due mainly to increased production

coming up against limited transport capacity at

places such as the Waha Hub in West Texas.

The ‘Clean Energy for All Europeans’ package

is made up of nine legislative proposals and

seven non-legislative documents, covering

energy efficiency, renewable energy, electricity

market redesign, governance rules for the

Energy Union, energy security and eco-

design.


Natural gas market in the CEE & Baltic Region


Terminals in CEE

WARSAW, May 29/June 24 (Reuters) - Poland’s dominant gas firm PGNiG said it has increased

its regasifiaction capacities at the Swinoujscie liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal to 6.2 bcm from

5 bcm currently in 2022 when its long-term supply deal with Russian Gazprom expires. Poland has

signed contracts worth 1.9 billion zlotys ($483 million) to expand its liquefied natural gas (LNG)

terminal in Swinoujscie on the Baltic Sea to 8.3 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2023 from 5 bcm now

in response to increasing domestic demand.

“The Swinoujscie terminal is one the best used units of this kind in Europe,”

In 2019 PGNiG bought 3.43 bcm of LNG, around 25% more than a year earlier. In the first quarter

the group purchased 0.98 bcm of LNG, a 34% increase year on year.

PGNiG said it expects its 100th shipment of LNG in a month.Earlier this month.

OIES Nov 2019 Jim Henderson

Russian LNG:Becoming a Global Force

Potential outlook for Russian LNG


Conclusions

➢ Oversupply – not only in Europe – Floating storage is being used extensively

➢ EE was determined and usually supplied by Russian (FSU) natural gas based on oil linked long term contracts

➢ Shale gas revolution, oversupply; cheaper spot LNG prepared infrastructure opened the possibilities for CEE EU

countries and Ukraine for LNG and diversification

➢ Poland’s dominant natural gas firm PGNiG decided to increase its regasifiaction capacities at the Świnoujście

liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal to 6.2 bcm from 5 bcm currently in 2022 when its long-term supply deal with

Russian Gazprom expires and to 8.3 bcm by 2023 in response to increasing demand.

➢ PGNiG expects its 100th shipment of LNG in June. The Świnoujście terminal is one the best used units of this kind

in Europe - In 2019 PGNiG bought 3.43 bcm of LNG, around 25% more than a year earlier. In the first quarter 2020

the group purchased 0.98 bcm of LNG, a 34% increase year on year.

➢ Demand forecasts for CEE shows the increase of consumption by 15% till 92 -95 bcm/yr in 2035 (from 80 bcm /yr

in 2018)

➢ Russian LNG Becoming a Global Force – Novatek is following the global trend and Russia has the potential to stay

4th – 5th market player in LNG

.


Thank you for your attention ☺

[email protected]


LNG Germany

In September 2019, German LNG Terminal, the joint venture of Vopak,

Oiltanking and Gasunie completed the EPC pre-qualification process

to construct an onshore LNG import terminal in Brunsbüttel in Northern

Germany, with subsequent EPC contract award planned before the

end of April 2020. The permit request will include two tanks of 240,000

m³ as well as a jetty for vessels and barges of up to 265,000 m³. Some

of the milestone decisions leading up to the FID will be taken in early

2020. Commercial operations will start following a construction phase

that will take up to three years.

The development of the first offshore German LNG regasification

terminal in Wilhelmshaven also progressed during the year. Mitsui

OSK Lines and Uniper signed an MoU to seal a cooperation to design

and operate the FSRU. Alongside regasification and injection into the

transmission grid, the FSRU will offer the possibility of loading LNG

onto bunker barges or tank trucks for road transport. The FSRU has a

planned send-out capacity of 7.3 MTPA and an LNG storage capacity

of around 263,000 m³.

In January 2019, Uniper entered into a HOA with ExxonMobil to book

a share of regasification capacity long-term.

LNG STADE (Macquarie Group Ltd.& China Harbor

Engineering); 2020 all permissions

Planed costs ca.: 500 mln €; uruchomienie 2023;

Capacity i ok. 5-8 mld m³/yr.

UNIPER - FSRU w Wilhelmshaven: ca 7.3 MTPA;

(10 mld m³/yr) German utility Uniper signed a contract

with Japanese group Mitsui OSK Lines to build and

charter a ship to handle deliveries of liquefied natural gas

(LNG) into Germany’s planned terminal at Wilhelmshaven

(LTW), it said on Mai 26th.

Q-Max 260 tys. m³.


Data sources

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html


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