Eve Gruntfest [email protected] Norman, OK September 15,2008 Advanced WAS * IS Workshop Beyond Storm...
-
Upload
nehemiah-biddick -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of Eve Gruntfest [email protected] Norman, OK September 15,2008 Advanced WAS * IS Workshop Beyond Storm...
Eve Gruntfest [email protected], OK September 15,2008
Advanced WAS * IS Workshop Beyond Storm Warnings:
A collaboration between stakeholders, the National Weather Service & the
Hazardous Weather Testbed
Motivation
Hazardous Weather Testbed developing next generation forecasting tools – better ways to communicate what we know in more sophisticated ways
WAS way – developing with little interaction with folks outside the lab
IS way – bring in forecasters, emergency managers, private sector to assure more socially relevant new tools
Participants
• Forecasters – representing a variety of geographic regions
• Emergency managers – local & federal agencies represented
• Private sector representatives moving in tandem with government partners
• Researchers – geographers, anthropologist with relevant expertise
• Many National Weather Center folks – from labs, grad students
• Others who want to see how this experiment develops - National Science Foundation, CASA (Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere), NOAA research folks
Cross section of users - WAS * ISers & non WAS * ISers
What we know about warnings – Public response components
Hear/receive
Understand
Believe
Personalize
Decide to act
Respond
The warning process is complexWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice
A flash flood warning indicates a more serious threat than a flash flood watch
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Agree Disagree
92%
8%
n=1031
I take flash flood warnings seriously
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Agree Disagree
n=1017
92%
8%
False alarm questions: Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls
N= 1047
78%
22%
0%10%20%
30%40%50%60%70%
80%90%
100%
Agree Disagree
Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding
N = 1031
86%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Agree Disagree
Warning project findings
•Weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized
•The weather research community has not focused on the individual needs of specific user communities
WAS*ISWAS*ISweather & society * integrated studies
www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/
CULTURE CHANGE
Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program
New culture change initiativeNew culture change initiativesince 2005since 2005
WAS*IS addresses two persistent issues
“I want to do work that integrates meteorology & societal impacts BUT…
I don’t know how & I don’t know anyone else who
does this kind of work”
To change the weather enterprise so that social science is integrated into meteorological research & practice in comprehensive & sustained ways
Weather & Society * Integrated Weather & Society * Integrated StudiesStudies Weather & Society * Integrated Weather & Society * Integrated StudiesStudies
What is WAS*IS?
1. Building an interdisciplinary community of practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders -- from the grassroots up --who are dedicated to the integration of meteorology & social science
Mostly early career folks!Capacity building –- creating Capacity building –- creating
a community for lifelong a community for lifelong collaboration & supportcollaboration & support
What is WAS*IS?
2. Providing opportunity to learn & examine ideas, methods, & examples related to integrated weather-society work
• Tools – GIS, surveys, qualitative methods
• Concepts – initiating & building relationships, many publics, end-to-end-to-end
• Topics – risk communication, communicating uncertainty, vulnerability
The WAS*IS movement
Originally envisioned as only 1 workshop
6 workshops so far Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (November
2005 & March 2006) Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) 2006 Summer WAS*IS (July 2006) Australia WAS*IS (January-February 2007) 2007 Summer WAS*IS (July 2007) Summer 2008 WAS*IS held August 8-15
Each workshop had a distinct character with common mission - Grand total of 172 WAS*ISers
Each workshop had a distinct character with common mission - Grand total of 172 WAS*ISers
THE CHANGE IS UNDERWAYRecognizing WAS*ISWAS*ISers’ talent & research--this is just a small sample
Rebecca Morss - National Center for Atmospheric Research Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society •problem definition •social science research agendas & •end-to-end-to-end process
Local government
agencies (e.g., floodplain management)
End-to-End-to-End Researchers & Decision-Makers
Professional associations
Private engineering consultants
Private land developers
Public (e.g., homeowners)
Private businesses
Local government
elected officials
State & regional governments
Federal government
Researchers
Morss, R. E., Ralph, F. M., 2007 Use of information by National Weather Service forecasters and emergency manager during CALJET and PACJET-2001 Weather and Forecasting 22 doi: 10.1175/WAF1001.1, 539-555
Morss, R. E., 2005 Problem definition in atmospheric science public policy: The example of observing system design for weather prediction Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86 181-191.
Emphasis on social relevance rather than product performance --Provide what public needs/wants
Lindsey Barnes - New conceptual model of false alarms & close calls
Barnes L, Gruntfest E, Hayden M, Schultz D, Benight C (2007) False Alarms and Close Calls: A Conceptual Model of Warning Accuracy. Weather and Forecasting 22, 1140-1147
Public – private – nonprofit collaborations to improve all elements of weather enterprise
with emphases onBetter communication More geographic specificityReduced confusionPartnership opportunities
Kevin Barjenbruch-WCM Salt Lake
MelissaTuttle Carr-The WeatherChannel
Considering social impacts in forecasts
Types of questions to appreciate
Who will be impacted?
Are people awake/sleeping/ driving/coaching, getting married?
What has happened up to this point? Have there already been fatalities?
What are the TV stations saying?
Have earlier storms been “missed” ?
Craig Schmidt, Division Chief, Western Region
Committed to Integrating societalImpacts into National Weather Service
Extreme speed of watershed responses
Extremely short lead-time for
warnings
Isabelle Ruin - National Center for Atmospheric Research Post- doc: Human exposure during flash flood -- New time/space analysis
New attention to weather & vulnerability
Developing a cold warning system for livestock
Tanja FransenNational WeatherService, Glasgow, MT
Karen Pennesi – Anthropologist - U of Western Ontario - Public perceptions of rain prophets & the Federal Weather Service in Brazil
Predictions based on observations of insects, animals, birds, plants, winds, stars, clouds, & other natural phenomena
Pennesi K (2007) Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 88, 7, 1033-1044
Randy Peppler – Leading efforts at U of Oklahoma in cultural studies of weather
Geography dissertation topic
Native American perceptions of weather information & how their stories change with migrations to different environments
Interdisciplinary doctoral committees
@ The NationalWeather Center
SSWIM TeamUniversity of Oklahoma
Sponsored by University of Oklahoma & National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration
Funding ~50% NOAA & 50% U of OklahomaThree main goals
1. To recognize & develop the existing social science activities at the National Weather Center
2. To build a strong integrated community of practitioners, researchers, & others to coordinate new projects & proposals that weave social science into the fabric of the National Weather Center
3. To assess the viability & interest in a new interdisciplinary Ph.D. program at the University of Oklahoma focused on the societal impacts of weather & climate change
Focus on the willing – no one being dragged into these new projects
26
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice
3 year effort - personnel
Dr. Eve Gruntfest geographer with 30 years experience as social scientist working with meteorologists
2 Ph.D. students working on interdisciplinary degrees - Dedicated to integrating social science into National Weather Center
1 full time Post-doc - Poised to take leadership of integrated social science activities
27
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice
Post – doctoral scientistHeather Lazrus (moving to Norman in January)
Environmental anthropologist
Extensive experience with NOAA Fisheries – conducting interviews in Alaska & Pacific Northwest How climate change & new policies affecting livelihoods & outlooks
Dissertation research 10 months living on TUVALU - small island
nation in South Pacific – how are THEY dealing with sea level rise?
28
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice
Kim Klockow
Interdisciplinary Ph.D. - Meteorology & Economics, Finance
Master’s work in Professional Meteorology at OU Interviewing farmers about how they value weather information from the Oklahoma mesonet
Ph.D. to focus on new ways to verify warnings
29
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice
Gina Eosco
Pursuing Ph.D. in risk communication at OU
Five years experience working at American Meteorological Society
Master’s work at Cornell University Interviewing forecasters & government officials
about their interpretations, objectives, & desired behavioral responses to the cone of uncertainty, a hurricane track graphic tool
30
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice
Workshop objectives1. Introduce new technologies & directions to
a diverse spectrum of potential future collaborators.
2. Define & address the broad spectrum of end-user needs from the super-user to diverse segments of the general public - focus on emergency managers, hospitals & individuals with higher vulnerability as well as private industry
3. Clarify & suggest new ways to communicate uncertainty & storm information - focus on graphic representations of storm timelines & uncertainty and communication through new & emerging technologies
4.Define new measures of success to assess service. Change concepts of storm verification including close calls & false alarms
5.Provide suggestions for the evolution of the Experimental Warning Program design for spring experiments with stakeholders goals
6.Develop ideas for new ways to change the culture within all levels of the National Weather Service to facilitate operational implementation
7.Create visibility & consider possible future funding opportunities for Hazardous Weather Testbed activities & stakeholder interactions that help move The National Weather Service from WAS to IS
Workshop objectives
Ground rules Advanced WAS * IS is not like any other
workshop
NO Acronyms – except NOAA, HWT & WAS * IS!
Meet & mingle to foster new collaborations & projects Best uses of our short time together Breaks & meals
Keep everyone engaged – small groups Minimized glazed eyeballs Imagine yourself in other people’s shoes
Everyone’s opinion matters
Challenges of this bold experiment We speak different languages
Please remember not everyone is a meteorologist
What are appropriate thresholds for risks, for geographic specificity, how to show?
WAS * IS framework is not common to all of us
Technically difficult Using the scenario – Trade offs of
anchoring this way - Hazardous Weather Testbed & other hazards
Inventing innovative ways to communicate uncertainty
Even forecasters need more than l week to understand what we are going to tackle in 2.5 days
Challenges of this bold experiment
By tomorrow afternoon & Wednesday morning we will be evaluating options for moving forward More workshops – with other Weather Center Laboratories, Groups?
More partners Other big ideas! Sustainable brain trust?
WAS * IS means changing from WAS to IS
WAS physical scientistgoes to WAS * IS workshop
Becomes WAS social scientist!
Moving from WAS to IS…is not an instant transition! WAS*ISers realize the joys of CONNECTING WITH STAKEHOLDERS
Greg Mortenson’s Three Cups of Tea analogy One Man's Mission to Promote Peace . . . One School at a Time (Best selling book about building schools in Afghanistan & Pakistan)
1st cup- stranger 2nd cup- honored guest 3rd cup- you’re part of family… takes
years With 172 official WAS*ISers & hundreds of
other like-minded hard-workers
Social science & policy are having our 2nd cup of tea with meteorology
We’re not family yet – but we’re no longer strangers
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice
National Weather ServicePrivate forecasters
Local Communities
The move from WAS to IS occurs when stovepipes are not the model - Bring social science into programs & research efforts in sustainable ways
Meteorologists, Hydrologists
Universities
Research Centers
Urban Drainage Districts
Broadcast meteorologists
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice
What did the most influential players look like in meteorology prior to WAS*IS & SSWIM
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice
WAS * ISers are NOT the same people with new technologies!
WAS*ISers & SSWIMers are changing the culture to
integrate societal impacts in sustainable ways
WAS*ISWAS*ISweather & society * integrated studies
www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/
CULTURE CHANGE
Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program
Thanks to Steve Koch, Lynn Maximuk, & Mike Hudson from NOAA Central Regional
Team for funding this workshop
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and PracticeWeaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice
Thanks to all of you for coming & participating in this AMAZING opportunity
LET’S GET our Advanced WAS * IS BREWING!
We have BIG work to do