Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU
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IER Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU ETSAP Workshop Madrid Markus Blesl, Julia Welsch Markus Blesl
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Transcript of Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU
IER
Evaluation of the role of energy storages in Europe with TIMES PanEU
ETSAP Workshop Madrid Markus Blesl, Julia Welsch
Markus Blesl
17.11.2016 2
Outline
Introduction
ESTMAP storage database – potentials
1
2
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Scenario analysis
Conclusions and outlook
17.11.2016 3
Introduction
Motivation:
• Political induced increase of share of renewables in the EU-28
• Increasingly feed in of electricity from variable renewables (wind and pv)
• Flexible options and especially Storages are needed
ESTMAP:
• Including ESTMAP storage database in TIMES models
• Scenario analysis
17.11.2016 4
Energy system model TIMES PanEU
• Technology oriented bottom-up partial equilibrium model
• 30 region model (EU 28, No, CH, IS)
• Energy system model
• SUPPLY: reserves, resources, exploration and conversion
• Country specific renewable potential and availability
• Electricity: public electricity plants, CHP plants and heating plants
• Residential and Commercial: End use technologies (space and water heating, space cooling and others)
• Industry: Energy intensive industry (Iron and steel, aluminum copper ammonia and chlorine, cement,
glass, lime, pulp and paper), food, other industries, autoproducer and boilers
• Transport: Different transport modes (cars, buses, motorcycles, trucks, passenger trains, freight trains),
aviation and navigation
• Country specific differences for characterization of new conversion and end-use technologies
• Time horizon 2010 - 2050
• GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 /Others pollutants: SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, PM2.5, PM10
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ESTMAP database
Storage potential for Europe
Country Potential [GWh] Connecting
Cost €
𝒌𝑾
Country Potential [GWh] Connecting
Cost €
𝒌𝑾
AT 409 6,2 IE 30 5,9
UK 1.702 8,4 IT 1.626 6,7
BG 378 6,9 NO 6.616 23,5
CY 51 5,7 PL 47 5
CZ 183 6,5 PT 1.229 4,4
DE 297 6 SE 1.098 11,6
FI 104 8 SI 18 5,6
FR 1.913 5,2 HR 291 7,5
GR 288 11,6 HU 3 5,5
Country Potential [GWh] Connecting
Cost €
𝒌𝑾
Country Potential [GWh] Connecting
Cost €
𝒌𝑾
AT 16 6,2 UK 85 4
FR 49 2,9 IT 86 7,7
CZ 3 6 NO 212 11,7
DE 5 15,2 PT 28 5,6
One existing reservoir
Two existing reservoirs
17.11.2016 6
Scenario definition
Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project
Scenario assumptions
2030 2050
Base MorePV Battery
Cost Base MorePV
Battery
Cost
GHG reduction in the EU-28
(vs. 1990) 40 % 90 %
Share of renewables at electricity
consumption in the EU-28 30 % 80 %
Share of renewables at gross final
energy consumption in the EU-28 27 % 75 %
PV Capacity in Europe 120 GW 180 GW 120 GW 364 GW 546 GW 364 GW
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Electricity production by energy carrier in Europe
Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project
• Increased electricity demand in
the EU-28 until the year 2050
• Electrification of the energy
system until the year 2050
(achieve GHG emission targets)
• Electrification enables
integration of fluctuating
renewable energies
• Decrease in fossil fuel based
power production and an
increase in renewable energy
generation
-500
0
500
1000
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3500
4000
4500
Sta
tistics
Base
Base
Mo
reP
V
Batt
ery
Co
st
Base
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reP
V
Batt
ery
Co
st
Base
Mo
reP
V
Batt
ery
Co
st
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V
Batt
ery
Co
st
Base
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Batt
ery
Co
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Base
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ery
Co
st
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electricity storage(excl. pump storage)Net Imports
Others / Waste non-ren.Other Renewables
Biomass / Waste ren.
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Hydro (incl. pumpstorage)Nuclear
Gas CCS
Gas w/o CCS
Oil
Lignite CCS
Lignite w/o CCS
Coal CCS
Coal w/o CCS
Net electricity
TWh
17.11.2016 8
Capacities in Europe
Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project
• Increase of
capacities
corresponding to the
generation in all 3
scenarios
0
200
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1000
1200
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1600
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2000
Sta
tistics
Base
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Mo
reP
V
Batt
ery
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Base
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Batt
ery
Co
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Base
Mo
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V
Batt
ery
Co
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Base
Mo
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Batt
ery
Co
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Base
Mo
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Batt
ery
Co
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Base
Mo
reP
V
Batt
ery
Co
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Base
Mo
reP
V
Batt
ery
Co
st
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electricity storage (excl.pump storage)
Others / Waste non-ren.
Other Renewables
Biomass / Waste ren.
Solar
Wind
Hydro incl. pumpstorage
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
Capacity
GW
17.11.2016 9
Electricity storages in Europe
Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project
• Investment in
additional electricity
storage capacities from
the year 2030 onwards 0
20
40
60
80
100
Sta
tistics
Base
Base
Mo
reP
V
Batt
ery
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Batt
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Batt
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Batt
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Co
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Batt
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Battery stationary RedoxFlow
Battery stationary LeadAcid
Battery stationaryLithium Ion
CAES adiabatic cavern
CAES adiabatic tank
CAES diabatic cavern
Pump Storage
Storage input capacity
GW
0
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40
60
80
100
120
140
Sta
tistics
Base
Base
Mo
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Batt
ery
Co
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Base
Mo
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Batt
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Base
Mo
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Mo
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Batt
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Co
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Mo
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V
Batt
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Co
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Base
Mo
reP
V
Batt
ery
Co
st
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Battery stationary RedoxFlow
Battery stationary Lead Acid
Battery stationary LithiumIon
CAES adiabatic cavern
CAES adiabatic tank
CAES diabatic cavern
Pump Storage
Storage output capacity
GW
17.11.2016 10
Electricity storages in Europe
Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project
3400
3500
3600
3700
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3900
4000
Sta
tistics
Base
Base
Mo
reP
V
Batt
ery
Co
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Base
Mo
reP
V
Batt
ery
Co
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Base
Mo
reP
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Batt
ery
Co
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Base
Mo
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Batt
ery
Co
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Base
Mo
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Batt
ery
Co
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Base
Mo
reP
V
Batt
ery
Co
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Base
Mo
reP
V
Batt
ery
Co
st
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Battery stationaryRedox Flow
Battery stationary LeadAcid
Battery stationaryLithium Ion
CAES adiabatic cavern
CAES adiabatic tank
CAES diabatic cavern
Pump Storage
Storage content
GWh
17.11.2016 11
Electricity trade in Europe
Scenario analysis from the ESTMAP project
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500B
ase
Bas
e
Mo
reP
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Bat
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Elec
tric
ity
net
imp
ort
s [T
Wh
]
UKSKSISEROPTPLNONLMTLVLULTITIEHUGRFRFIESEEDKDECZCYCHBGBEAT
17.11.2016 12
Conclusions and outlook
• For all three scenarios an increased electricity demand in the EU-28 until the year 2050 can be observed
• This electrification of the overall energy system contributes to achieving the GHG emission targets as set in the EU roadmaps and reflects the increasing share of fluctuating renewable energy sources (wind and PV) in the energy system
• Investment in additional electricity storage capacities from the year 2030 onwards are needed beside of the use of other flexibility options in the energy system.
• First investments in the European model are in diabatic CAES and battery storages and in the subsequent periods in pump storage und adiabatic CAES
• The cost reduction of adiabatic CAES until the year 2050 leads to an economic advantage of this storage technology towards the end of the model horizon
• The adiabatic CAES contributes to the reduction of the GHG emissions in Europe compared to the diabetic storage, which requires natural gas as an input to store electricity
• But the additional flexibility options might change the picture.
Telefon +49 (0) 711 685-
Universität Stuttgart
Energiewirtschaft und Systemtechnische Analyse (SAM)
PD Dr.-Ing. Markus Blesl
87 865
Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER)
Thank you for your attention !
