Evaluating weather and climate impacts on global crop production Tom Walsh, Weather Research Manager—Agriculture, Lanworth Commodities Research and Forecasts, Thomson Reuters Chicago, Illinois 40th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop 29 October 2015

How does Thomson Reuters Research & Forecasts use weather and climate data?

•  Analytically/statistically compared to crop data to determine global crop production outlooks (Lanworth)

•  Visually via the Agriculture Weather Dashboard

•  Analytically via insight/forecasts on the Agriculture Weather Dashboard

•  Available on Data Feed

all season mid/late season

PlantedArea

Economics Historical trends

Field Work Satellite imagery

Yield

Field Work

Satellite imagery

Weather

Crop Production Outlooks

early/mid season

early/mid season

all season

Elevator calls & Harvest reports

late season

FSA/RMA

Climate tele-connections

mid- season

early season Futures prices

Spot/Base prices Cost of Production

early season early season

Historical trends

Weather and Climate impacts on crops

•  Temperatures –  Warm Anomalies –  Cool Anomalies –  Frost/Freeze

•  Precipitation/Soil Moisture –  Drought –  Wet Anomalies

•  Climate Impacts –  Most notably… ENSO

15

16

17

18

19

200 300 400 500

Temperature Example: US Corn Yield

Data sources: NOAA, USDA

5-20% below

Within 5%

5-20% above

Deviation from trend corn yield, 1981-2014

20% or more below

Rainfall, June-August (mm)

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

Ju

ly-A

ugus

t (°C

)

Frost & Freeze Example: 2007 US winter wheat

Kansas Kentucky

Soil Moisture, April (mm) Rainfall, April-May (mm)

v v

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

A

pril-

May

(°C

)

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

A

pril

(°C

)

10-25% below Within 10% 10-25% above

Deviation from trend Winter wheat productivity, 1985-2015

25% or more below

25% or more above

2015

2015

Data sources: NOAA, USDA

Precipitation Example: Australia Wheat

Data sources: NOAA, USDA

40

60

80

100

120

201220142015

1997

2008

2004

140 160 180 200 220 240 260

19

20

21

22

23

19972008

2004

2014

2012

2015

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Pre

cipi

tatio

n Ju

ly-A

ugus

t

Soil moisture, June (mm)

Min

imum

tem

pera

ture

, A

ugus

t-Oct

ober

(°C

)

Rainfall, September-October

(mm)

10-25% below Within 10% 10-25% above

Deviation from wheat yield trend, 1981-2015

25% or more below

25% or more below

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

ENSO: El Niño vs. Western Hemisphere

Data sources: Thomson Reuters Eikon, NOAA, USDA

Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly, Sep-Feb (℃)

Dev

iatio

n fro

m tr

end

yiel

d (b

u/ac

re)

Corn, N. America

Corn, S. America

Soy, N. America

Soy, S. America

+10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

+10%

+5%

0%

-5%

-10%

+10%

0%

-10%

-20%

+10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Data sources: TR Eikon, NOAA, USDA; #KZ+RU+UA harvest in the marketing year following Sep

Dev

iatio

n fro

m tr

end

yiel

d (b

u/ac

re)

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Palm Oil, Malaysia

Wheat, Australia

Corn, China

Wheat, Kzkstan+Russia+Ukraine#

Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly, Sep-Feb (℃)

+20% 0% 0%

-10% -20%

+10%

0%

-10%

-20%

+20% +10% 0%

-10%

+10%

0%

-10%

-10%

-10% -30%

-50%

-10%

-10%

-10%

ENSO: El Niño vs. Eastern Hemisphere

Past & forecasted weather in a variety of formats, coupled with insight from meteorologists in the agriculture business provide substantial support and guidance into crop impacts & risks due to weather.

AGRICULTURE WEATHER DASHBOARD

AGRICULTURE WEATHER DASHBOARD: INSIGHT •  Weekly or bi-weekly updates for relevant

geographies during important times of year

•  Monthly outlooks for US

•  Long-range outlooks for all other geographies ahead of critical crop seasons

•  US frost/freeze climatology

•  Monthly ENSO outlooks

•  Daily Morning Headlines

AGRICULTURE WEATHER DASHBOARD: MAPS •  Past Weather (7 to 180 days)

•  Forecasted Weather –  Model Guidance –  Summarized over crop regions

•  Monthly/long-term forecasts –  Hand-designed

AGRICULTURE WEATHER DASHBOARD: DATA •  Charts

–  Historical Soil Moisture –  Historical and Forecast Temperatures –  Historical and Forecast Precipitation

•  Tables –  Forecast Data –  Change from previous run data –  Change from previous day data

ENSO Forecasting

•  Main Intent: to establish a workflow to incorporate climate variables into crop yield models.

•  Why? Climatological indicators may provide earlier insight into risks to crop production compared to typical 1-2 week weather forecast lead times.

ENSO Forecasting (continued)

•  Statistical modeling of the following variable types (to predict ENSO): –  Recent Niño Region sea surface temperatures –  Equatorial Pacific Ocean heat content –  850mb trade winds –  SOI –  AAM –  ‘Significant’ MJO Days (amplitude > 1) –  Other lesser correlating variables include OLR, PDO, PNA,

NAO, AAO, AO, MJO Amplitude, etc.

ENSO Forecasting (Current)

•  Our latest release focuses on what happens after El Niño runs its course during Northern Hemispheric Winter of 2015/16: –  La Niña or Neutral ENSO? About equal chances –  Repetitive El Niño? Highly unlikely

ENSO Forecasting (Current)

•  Focus on Western Pacific trade winds

THANK YOU!

•  Any questions?