Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through … · 2017. 5. 19. · UNCLASSIFIED...
Transcript of Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through … · 2017. 5. 19. · UNCLASSIFIED...
Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact
86th Fighter Weapons SquadronCOMBAT HAMMER
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Lt Col Dean Ostovich86 FWS/CC
Air-to-Ground Weapons System Evaluation Program (WSEP)
Perfecting Lethality
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Overview
86 FWS ProgramRanges and TargetsInstrumentation / Data CollectionStatistical MethodsFuture Focus
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86 FWS
Perfecting LethalityPerfecting Lethality
Eglin AFB
Hill AFB
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Mission Statement
“Evaluate the effectiveness, maintainability, suitability, and accuracy of precision guided munitions and high technology A/G munitions from tactical deliveries against realistic targets with realistic enemy defenses.”
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A/G WSEP Mission
End-to-end EvaluationIntegral Part of AF / DOD Life Cycle Acquisition and Sustainment ProgramNot just ACC…Evaluations Support AFMC / DoD WRM Considerations
Extensive Program Office liaisonSymbiotic relationship (Hardware & Software)
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1986 - 2008
Initial Charter 1986 - COMACC PLAN 90, “Air-to-Ground Weapon Systems Evaluation Program”1986: 9 Units / 50 Weapons2007: 19 Units / 369 WeaponsAug 08: 7 Units / 183 WeaponsWe Own a Growth Industry
Annual program resource requirements (infrastructure, funding, manpower) increasing in scope commensurate with rapid rise in CAF PGM capabilitiesSustained requirement is 20 WSEPs annually with a 22-24 WSEP “surge” capacity in any given year employing 350 weapons
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CAF Air-to-Ground ArsenalB-1B
GBU-31/38GBU-39CBU-103/4/5AGM-154AAGM-158
B-2AGBU-31/38GBU-39AGM-154AAGM-158
B-52HGBU-12GBU-31/38GBU-39AGM-86C/D CBU-103/4/5AGM-154AAGM-158
F-117AGBU-10/12/27GBU-31
MQ-1 PredatorAGM-114
MQ-9 ReaperGBU-12GBU-38GBU-39AGM-114
A/OA-10AGM-65D/G/G2/H/KGBU-10/12
A/OA-10CGBU-10/12GBU-31/38AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/ECBU-103/4/5
F-15EGBU-10/12/24(E)GBU-15/28GBU-31/38/53GBU-39CBU-103/4/5AGM-130
F/A-22AGBU-32GBU-39
F-16B30GBU-10/12/24GBU-31/38AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/EAGM-88CBU-103
F-16B40GBU-10/12/24GBU-31/38/53AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/ECBU-103/4/5AGM-154A
F-16B50AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/EAGM-88AGM-154AGBU-31/38/53CBU-103/4/5 GBU-10/12AGM-158Today Today -- 13 Platforms13 Platforms
98 Weapon System Combinations98 Weapon System CombinationsFuture Future -- 13 Platforms13 Platforms
114 Weapon System Combinations114 Weapon System CombinationsFY07 FY07 -- 12 Platforms12 Platforms
39 Weapon System Combinations39 Weapon System Combinations
B-1BGBU-31/38GBU-39CBU-103/4/5AGM-154AAGM-158
B-2AGBU-31/38GBU-39AGM-154AAGM-158
B-52HGBU-12GBU-31/38GBU-39AGM-86C/D CBU-103/4/5AGM-154AAGM-158
F-117AGBU-10/12/27GBU-31
MQ-1 PredatorAGM-114
MQ-9 ReaperGBU-12GBU-38GBU-39AGM-114
A/OA-10AGM-65D/G/G2/H/KGBU-10/12
A/OA-10CGBU-10/12GBU-31/38AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/ECBU-103/4/5
F-15EGBU-10/12/24(E)GBU-15/28GBU-31/38/53GBU-39CBU-103/4/5AGM-130
F/A-22AGBU-32GBU-39
F-16B30GBU-10/12/24GBU-31/38AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/EAGM-88CBU-103
F-16B40GBU-10/12/24GBU-31/38/53AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/ECBU-103/4/5AGM-154A
F-16B50AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/EAGM-88AGM-154AGBU-31/38/53CBU-103/4/5 GBU-10/12AGM-158
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A/G WSEP Mission Execution
Fighter Squadrons Deploy to Eglin and Hill AFB8-12 jets; one and two week evaluation deployments
Typical unit 12-18 aircrews; 100-150 people deployedAmmo troops up front (2 wks early)
Bomber / UAS Squadrons Execute From Home StationHammer Constructs Realistic Scenarios Weapons, Platforms, and Targets “Instrumented”Hammer Collects Data, Conducts Analysis, and Determines Weapon System Effectiveness
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Ranges and Targets
Eglin (35%)High humidity / green environmentShoot cones more restrictiveMoving targetUrban CAS village (FY09/1)
UTTR (65%)Desert / barren environmentPermissive shoot conesUrban CAS villageMoving targetHigh speed moving target (FY09/4)
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~10 miles
Ranges and Targets
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Ranges and Targets
Area Targets
Static Tank Array
Mover Track
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Ranges and Targets
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Hill AFB
EGLIN RANGES
~10 miles
Ranges and Targets
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MOVER
CIRCLE
APC
CONVOYURBAN VILLAGE
Ranges and Targets
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Ranges and Targets
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Ranges and Targets
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Ranges and Targets
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China Lake Mover
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Instrumentation / Data Collection
Time / Space / Position / Information (TSPI)Radar trackingGlobal Positioning System (GPS)A/C AVTR / DVR-S
TelemetryUsed to the maximum extent possibleAssess weapon performance--launch to impactPaveway / AGM-130 exceptions
Improve Laser Tracker (ILAST)Measures laser designator performance
Power output, spot stability, and spot position Boresight check
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Videometric Analysis System (VMAS)Measures weapon impact conditionsImpact angle, bomb body yaw, and impact position
Effects (LPA)Video record of target condition - before / after Video record of munitions impacts relative to DPI / DMPI
Chase AircraftAssess tactics and weapon performance post releaseEnsures range safetyFills in where no telemetry availableDesired - not required
Instrumentation / Data Collection
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Statistical Analysis
8 Evaluation PhasesMunitions buildup Ground, enrouteEmployment, guidance, fuzing, warhead, target damage
Probability of SuccessEncompasses all phases except munitions buildup
Probability of HitEncompasses last 5 phasesProbability of target damage given the opportunity to employ
Non-chargeable InterruptionsWeather, range closure, TM failure
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GROUND ENROUTE EMPLOYMENT GUIDANCE FUZING WARHEAD TGT DAMAGE10/101.0
7/8.88
6/7.86
4/6.67
4/41.0
4/41.0
3/4.75X X X X X X = .38
PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS (Ps) = 0.38
PROBABILITY OF HIT (Ph) = 0.43
NONCHARGEABLE INTERRUPTIONS (WX, RANGE,ETC)
Statistical Analysis
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As defined by COMACC Plan 90:80% confidence level10% accuracy level80% chance Hammer probabilities will be replicated in the real world (+ 10%)
Statistical Analysis
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Can’t Meet Statistical Significance All The TimeCurrently 98 different weapons system combinationsGoal achievable over 5 year period (7-10 Wpns per Yr)
Confidence Level Does Not Differentiate Between:Different delivery parametersEnvironmental factorsOFP changesScenario
Statistical Analysis
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Combined Archer / HammerACC drawdown vs. USAFE / PACAF / ARCWeaponsTelemetryEmitters
Video
Future Focus
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Combat Hammer Charter
EMPLOY A/G PGMs and High Technology WeaponsA/G WSEP “COMBAT HAMMER”Investigative Firing Program
ASSESS/VALIDATE Combat CapabilitiesTotal weapons system“Storage through impact”Ops units, combat realistic scenarios, and realistic threat replication
IMPROVE A/G PGM EffectsTelemetryRecommend changes Maintain comprehensive database
PROVIDE Expertise on Demand“ON-CALL” capability
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I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e
53D Weapons Evaluation Group