Microsoft Word - EASTS FINAL PAPER-ANWAR_HiroshimaUniEvaluating Local People Acceptance towards Car Free Day Program Using Structural
Equation Model: Study on Surabaya City of Indonesia
A.H.M. Mehbub ANWAR
Fax: +63-2 / 426-0851; 426-6141
Email: vic.aquitania@iclei.org
Abstract: This paper attempts to evaluate the local people acceptance towards car free day
program by developing a new dynamic structural model. On the other words, in this paper
some factors/variables have been identified and discussed which have significant effects on
car free day intention using aggregate analysis and structural equation modeling to investigate
the cause effect relationship. According to the findings, most of the people in Surabaya are
accepting the car free day program positively. On the contrary, the majority of inhabitants
don’t agree to move the car free day program from weekend to workday. In terms of cause-
effect analysis, car free day intention is highly related to utility of car free day and again
utility of car free day program is also strongly correlated to CO emission reduction. So it is
found that CO is significantly correlated to car free day intention. Moreover, in the dynamic
structure model, the level of influence of each variable has also been determined.
Key words: Car free day, structural equation model, cause-effect relationship, latent variable
1. INTRODUCTION
Nowadays, the issues of global climate change and environmental emission are being
discussed widely all over the world and a lot of researchers are now concentrating their study
on this alarming issue. For instance, recently Hicken and Banister (2007) completed a
research keeping on a vision of achieving the 60% CO2 emission reduction in UK by 2030
and they focused more on the New Market Economy suggesting more travel and greater input
from technological innovation and secondly, on Smart Social Policy which is related to social
welfare and environmental perspective. Similarly, Fujino et. al. (2008) also explored that 70%
CO2 emission reduction is possible through a demand-side approach maintaining the
efficiency improvements, decreased population and the more rational use of energy despite
increased energy demands arising in certain sectors and supply-side approach during a
combination of the appropriate choice of low-carbon energy sources and improving energy
efficiency. On the other hand, from another research it was found that air transport is
responsible not only for emissions of CO2 but also other emissions like H2O and NOX which
contribute either directly or via chemical processes in the atmosphere (Akerman, 2005).
However, a significant portion of CO2 emission comes from transport sectors especially from
vehicles. Takahashi (2005) revealed transport sector as the second highest (21%) CO2 emitter
whereas only passenger cars contribute to produce CO2 emission at 55% in the transport
sectors. So in order to consider this alarming agenda, car free day program can be one of the
catalysts to transform the city planning paradigm in the sustainable development horizon.
Car free day addresses many problems caused by our dependence on the private automobile,
including air pollution, global warming, stress, and safety issues. It promotes the human and
environmental health benefits of going “car free” and choosing alternatives, such as walking
or cycling or other alternative modes of transport. Dillon and Damantoro (2008) explained
this program as to provide visualization for the population on the look of the city with limited
use of private vehicles, and at the same time, promote and encourage awareness on the
presence of alternative transportation modes. As through car free day program it is possible to
reduce travel distance by car and pollution as well so car free day is a good idea to promote
the changes of travel behavior to achieve low carbon society.
Therefore, this paper endeavors to develop a new dynamic structural model of local people
acceptance towards car free day program. On the other words, in this paper some
factors/variables have been identified and discussed which have significant effects on car free
day intention using aggregate analysis and structural equation modeling. To develop the
model, five latent/unobserved and twelve observed variables have been considered. These
variables have been discussed in the later part of this paper.
2. BACKGROUND OF CAR FREE DAY CAMPAIGN
The first car free days were held in Switzerland in January and February 1974 because of oil
crisis at that time. This program was used as a way of reassessing a city’s patterns of behavior.
The people like to drive car for travel but car free day directs the intention to switch to others
mode of transport to use. In June of 1996, the municipal government of Reykjavik (capital
city of Iceland) organized a car free day that would serve as the starting point for a cumulative
series of similar programs in the future. In 1997, car free programs were held throughout the
UK, in Lyons and Amsterdam. On 22 September 1998, the French Ministry of Environment
organized a national car free day in which 34 cities participated. Italy joined France in 1999,
and by 22 September 2000, all of Europe joined in the now annual EU car free day 1 . Perhaps
the largest boost to the movement came on Thursday, 24 February 2000 when the city of
Bogotá made history with the first complete ban on private vehicles on a working day and
seven million people went about their daily activities using only public or alternative mode of
transport. Over the last three years, cities around the world have embraced car free days and
such programs have been reported from Seoul to Surabaya and from Cape Town to Brasilia
(Badiozamani, 2003).
1 “World Car free days Timeline: 1961–2008,” Ecoplan and the Commons website,
<http://www.ecoplan.org/carfreeday/general/origins.htm>
Presently, car free day program is being held to reduce the traffic induced emission although
the first car free day program was held in Switzerland due to oil crisis at that time. Regarding
Surabaya case, the cause behind the car free day program is to care about the air quality. It is
well-known that the motor vehicles resulting smoke is called as emissions. Each vehicle,
either two-wheel, four-wheels, or more, they contribute to air quality and affect the air quality
in the city of Surabaya. The number of vehicles operating in Surabaya now is about more than
1 million units. This amount is being still increased because the flow of vehicles from
adjacent areas such as, Mojokerto, Sidoarjo, Gresik, Bangkalan, all also operate in Surabaya.
Day by day the number of vehicles in Surabaya will reach more than 1 million units and all
vehicles generate smoke, and the people are living in Surabaya, the people inhale the smoke.
Then, the city becomes not healthy, including residents. Therefore, the city office invites the
people to maintain the quality of air in order to remain healthy and good for our future
children (Urban environmental agency, 2008).
However, the car free day concept has been introduced to promote the use of the alternatives
transport mode as well as to realize the need for greater space for pedestrians and bicycles for
emission reduction. Through car free day program, people are forced and encouraged to find
an alternative mode that is more efficient and cost effective than their car for taking their
children to school or commuting to work. Congestion is radically reduced on the day of the
program and most of the people reported as faster public transport to travel and lower air and
noise pollution rates are appeared significantly.
3. NOTE ON PRESENTLY PRACTICE CAR FREE DAY PROGRAM IN
SURABAYA
In Surabaya, the first car free day was carried out in 2001. The program was initiated by City
Government Office for improvement of air quality. The first program was took place in
“Pamuda Street” which is one of the busiest streets in Surabaya by making the road block for
motorized vehicles except emergency vehicle like ambulance, fire service car etc. for 12 hours
from 6 AM to 6 PM. In 2002, car free day was also held but in another street named “Yos
Sudarso”. This road is also another important road in Surabaya. In these two years, car free
day were celebrated twice a year. But lack of proper and sufficient publicity and awareness
among the people, the program initiator received complains from the local people against car
free day program. Therefore, from year 2003 to 2007, car free day was postponed and these
times were allocated for socialization, motivation and campaign to make the people aware
about car free day benefits.
From 2008, again car free day program has been started
in Surabaya in another road named “Raya Darmo”. In
this year (2008), car free day was celebrated only once a
year and the program was held in August. But from
2009, it has been decided, car free day will be held twice
a month i.e. on Sunday of each 2 nd
and 4 th
week in a
month. The program consists of some main components
such as road block for not only car but also other
motorized vehicles, local ambient air quality monitoring
and air quality improvement campaign etc.
Plate 1 Raya Darmo street of
Surabaya
The “Raya Darmo” street is the main corridor to enter into city core area. It is occupied by
not so high rise buildings along the corridor. Those buildings are offices, hotels, commercial
buildings and apartment. This corridor has been developed in the form of mixed use consist of
apartment, offices and commercial functions.
Fortunately, the first and third authors of this paper attended the car free day programs in
Surabaya on last February 22, 2009 and March 08, 2009. In Surabaya, it has been decided by
the city authority to celebrate the car free day on Sunday and the time duration of celebration
is from 6 AM to 10 AM. The Raya Darmo Street has been designated for car free day program.
So no motorized vehicle is allowed to move through only in this street though it is made
known as car free day. From the theoretical point of view, car free day means that the car is
not allowed to move through the road on a specific day. In the other words, except car, all
vehicles are allowed to move on the road. But in Surabaya case, the reality is different. One
specific road has been chosen for car free day program and only non motorized vehicles are
allowed to move on this specific road. So even, other motorized vehicles like city bus, angkot
(public transport) etc are not allowed to go through this road. Thus the concept of car free day
in Surabaya is a little bit different compared to contemporary car free day concept over the
world. However, as it was Sunday and the people were not busy with their work; eventually in
Surabaya the car free day program was turned into the pedestrian festival which is the good
approach to reduce the emission. The car free day festival gave the people a glimpse of urban
paradise. Even in the pouring rain, people came out to dance in the streets, present themselves
with exciting programs etc.
There were a lot of funs on the road what was observed by the authors like concert, dance,
cat-walk, monkey dance, snakes and other animals. The following plate 2 shows the pictures
of some exciting programs what was being holding in recent time in Surabaya.
Plate 2 Excitements of car free day program held in Surabaya in 2008 and 2009
4. STUDY APPROACH
Surabaya City of Indonesia has been selected as study area of this study (figure 1). Surabaya
is the second largest city in Indonesia. It
is the capital of east Java Province.
Surabaya is a tropical city and located a
coastal and lowland area. The altitude
varies from 3 to 10 m above sea level.
The following shows the very brief
general information about Surabaya
31 Districts and 163 Sub District
Developed area = 61.9%
The study approach of this paper is to
evaluate the local people acceptance
towards car free day program in
Surabaya and investigate the factors
related to car free day intention through
dynamic cause effect relationship model.
For selection of the sample respondents
to conduct this study, the respondents
were divided into six stakeholder
groups. These groups are: (i) Staffs of
city government office; (ii) Staffs of
both private and public offices
alongside the car free day designated street (St. Raya Darmo); (iii) People walking in Taman
Bunkgul (it is a park adjacent to St. Raya Darmo); (iv) Staffs of Transport Department; (v)
Students of higher secondary and university; and (vi) Drivers of Public transport.
A sample is any subset of sampling units from a population. The size of the sample is properly
estimated by deciding what level of accuracy is required and, how large a standard error is
acceptable. It also depends on the objectives of the research. There are various common
misconceptions about the necessary size of a sample. One is that the sample should be a
regular proportion (often put at 5 percent) of the population. Another is that the sample should
total about 2000; still another is that any increase the sample size will increase the precision of
the sample results. No such rules-of-thumb are adequate (Machmias and Nachmias, 1976).
However, if cost, time and other practical limitation do not enter into decision about the
sample size, there is no difficulty in determining the desired sample size by using standard
formulas (Machmias and Nachmias, 1976). In deciding the sample size for this study,
researcher had to consider some basic limitations like cost, time and some other practical
problems like language barrier. So it was decided to set sample size at 100. The survey was
conducted by simple random sampling technique. The people who were free and interested to
give interview were selected randomly. This survey was conducted by face to face method
Figure 1 Location of study area
with the period of 7 days (March 1 – 7, 2009) with the help of Urban Environmental Agency
of Surabaya.
After the data collection the data were stored in SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences)
and Excel in such a way so that the database can be easily analyzed to achieve the research
objectives through AMOS (Analysis of Moments Structure) and SPSS software. AMOS is
more effective software to perform the cause-effect relationship analysis.
4.1 Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)
4.1.1 General
One obvious reason why SEM has become such an increasingly popular data analytic option
is that it has a number of strengths. One well-known feature of SEM is the ability to specify
latent variable models that provide separate estimates of relations among latent constructs and
their manifest indicators (the measurement model) and of the relations among constructs (the
structural model). By these means, it is commonly argued; researchers can assess the
psychometric properties of measures and estimate relations among constructs that are
corrected for biases attributable to random error and construct-irrelevant variance (Little, et. al.
1999). However, we should caution that the psychometric benefits of latent variable modeling
can be overstated and are conditional upon various methodological factors operative in a
given study (DeShon, 1998).
4.1.2 Structural Equation Model with Latent Variables
Generally, a structural equation model (SEM) with latent variables is used to capture the
complex cause-effect relationships and interactions between the observed and/or unobserved
variables (Feng, 2007). SEM is a modeling technique that can handle a large number of
(observed) endogenous and exogenous variables, as well as (unobserved) latent variables
specified as linear combinations (weighted averages) of the observed variables (Golob, 2003).
Some similar models include simultaneous equation systems, linear causal analysis, path
analysis, structural equation models, dependence analysis, and cross-legged panel correlation
techniques (Joreskog and Sorbom, 1989a). It is a confirmatory, rather than explanatory
method, because the modeler is required to construct a model in term of a system of
unidirectional effects of one variable on another. SEM is used to specify the phenomenon
under study in terms of putative cause-effect variables and their indicators. Following
Joreskog and Sorbom (1989b), the full model structure can be summarized by the following
three equations.
Measurement model for y:
x = Λxη + δ (3)
Here, η’ = (η1, η2, ……….ηm) and ξ’ = (ξ1, ξ2, ………ξm) are latent dependent and
independent variables respectively. Vectors η and ξ are not observed, but instead y’ = (y1,
y2, ………yp) and x’ = (x1, x2,……….xq) are observed dependent and independent variables. ζ,
ε, δ are the vectors of errors terms, and B, Γ, Λ, Λx Λy are the unknown parameters.
An important feature of SEM is that it can calculate not only direct effects, but also indirect
and total effects (Golob, 2003). Direct effect refers to the influence of a predictor variable on
a target variable. In contrast, the indirect effect refers to the influence of a predictor variable
on a target variable via some other variables. And, the total effects are defined to be the sum
of direct effects and indirect effects. Compared to other linear-in-parameter statistical methods,
advantages of SEM are that it can treat both endogenous and exogenous variables as random
variables by explicitly reflecting the measurement errors, define the latent variables using
observed variables, test the model with equation 1 – 3 as a whole rather than the parameters
individually, and represent dynamic phenomenon such as habit and inertia (Golob, 2003). In
SEM, latent variables can be used to integrate the information of some variables for the sake
of effectively clarifying the casualties related to the observed variables. Without the
introduction of such latent variables, the analysis of such causality becomes difficult and
sometimes impossible in actual applications (Feng, 2007).
4.1.3 Structural Equation Model Specification
To establish the SEM structure, in this study it was assumed that socio-economic (SE)
characteristics, level of service (LOS), attitudes towards car free day (ATTI) and utility of car
free day (UTI) have influences on car free day program (CFD) and also SE, LOS, UTI and
ATTI have influences among themselves simultaneously. For this analysis, five
latent/unobserved variables have been introduced. These are: (i) socio-economic (SE)
characteristics; (ii) level of service (LOS) of transport mode; (iii) utility of car free day (UTI);
(iv) attitudes towards car free day (ATTI); and (v) car free day intention (CFD).
In this model, the latent variable “socio-economic characteristics (SE)” is presented by using
the annual income of the people (Income), family size of the households (FamilyS) and age of
the people (Age). The “level of service (LOS)” is defined based on the travel time in minutes
per trip (TraTi), travel cost in Rupiah (TraCo) per trip and waiting time in minutes (WaiTi).
The “attitude towards car free day (ATTI)” is described by repetition of car free day program
in a month (Repeat) and increase the duration of car free day program in a particular day
(Increase). The another latent variable “utility of car free day (UTI)” is represented as vehicle
kilometer traveled savings (VKTS) by car and CO emission (CO) of 100 days (from August
01) in 2008. And the last latent variable “car free day intention (CFD)” which has been
observed by feelings whether good or not (CFD1) and attended on last car free day celebration
(CFD2) held on February 22, 2009 or not.
The set of connections between the observed and unobserved variables is often called the
measurement model (figure 2). The present model has five distinct measurement sub models.
The model component connecting the unobserved variables to each other is often called the
structural model (figure 3).
Figure 3 Structural model
5.1 Knowledge about Car Free Day Program
Although the car free day program was started in 2001 first but from 2003 to 2007 it was
postponed because of not getting the enthusiastic support from the local people and even
police administration (Urban environmental agency, 2009). But it was started again from
August 2008 with full support from Police
administration of Surabaya and optimism of
local people. After a long socialization
(from the year 2003 to 2007), now the
people know about the car free day
program and they feel to enjoy it for
environmental improvement. From the
total population is well-informed about car
free day. Only 12 percent does not aware
about this activity. Indeed, the authors have
observed that presently the car free day is
being held on a particular road (St. Raya
Darmo) in Surabaya and the people who
live far away from this street they are not
up to date about the car free day program. So it needs more publicity and advertisement about
its benefits and betterment of the environment. Therefore, the people will be more inclined to
this fruitful program.
For the investigation of medium of information about car free day, multiple response
technique has been used. It is already stated above that 88 percent people know about car free
day. In this percentage, newspaper is the most successful means of publicizing the program
with 42.54 percent of respondents. About 23 percent of respondents have heard about the day
by their colleagues and 20.15 percent via word of mouth. It is noted that the web site did not
elicit any response (table 1).
Table 1 Medium of knowing about car free day
Medium Responses Percent of cases
Frequency Percent*
Leaflet/flyer/poster 19 14.18 21.59
Colleagues 31 23.13 35.23
Total 134 100.00 152.27
* Percent is calculated out of 88 samples because, 88 responses are familiar with car free day
5.2 View Point of the People Concerning Car Free Day Program
Whether the people of Surabaya know about the car free day or not, they have stated their
perceptions on car free day program after explanation by the author to them. The majority of
respondents (90%) considered the program as a good idea, with only 10% not considering it
as a good idea. As almost all the people think it as a good program so this program should be
continued.
local people
Opinions Percent
Good 90.0
Bad 10.0
Total 100.0
The following table 3 depicts the views of the people on car free day. It is already mentioned
earlier that 90 percent of the people has responded car free day as a good program. Thus, these
responses have been categorized according to benefits of car free day such as less car, less
noise, less pollution, easier to shop, and easier to walk.
Table 3 View points regarding good perception on car free day
View points Responses Percent of cases
Frequency Percent*
Easier to shop 7 5.1 7.8
Easier to walk 16 11.6 17.8
Less pollution 39 28.3 43.3
Total 138 100.0 153.3
* Percent has been calculated out of 90 samples.
From the findings in table 3, the highest percent of responses (30.4%) leads the category of
less noise as a good aspect of car free day. The second highest (28.3%) represents the less
pollution as a positive side of car free day. Though these two percents of these responses are
very closer to each other nevertheless, the authors assumed “less pollution” category should
lead the top percentage. However, it means still people are not so aware about the pollution
from the car. In general the people think noise will be minimized rather than the real thinking
on car induced pollution when car moves through. From the theoretical point of view, the
reason behind the car free day program is to reduce the pollution from the car rather than
noise reduction. However, less noise and less pollution are the most important aspects in
terms of benefits of car free day program, respondents stated.
5.3 Preferred Frequency of Car Free Day Program
The responses were asked whether car free day program should be repeated or not. Most of
the people (90%) agree to repeat the car free day program. In fact, the people who have
mentioned the car free day program as a good program those agree to repeat it for betterment
of the Surabaya environment. Thus, it is a green signal for the city government office to keep
on the program in the future.
Table 4 Views on repetition of car free day
Opinions Percent
Total 100.0
The people who agree to repeat the car free day program in future have put their opinion on
how often it should be repeated. According to the following table 5, it is found that almost
half of the total respondents (48.9%) has given their consent to repeat the car free day
program once a week but in weekend whereas 32.2 percent of the respondents agree to repeat
it once a month. However, it is a good sign that some people (3.3%) agree to celebrate car free
day everyday for a certain time and once a week in workday (8.9%) as well though this
portion is not a substantial amount. Nonetheless, this is the message to the government
authority to bring it into the consideration to hold car free day in work day in future.
Table 5 Desired frequency of repetition of car free day
How often Percent
Once a week (weekend) 48.9
Once a month 32.2
Twice a year 1.1
Total 100.0
5.4 Opinions on Increase and Shift of Time of Car Free Day Program
The following table shows the opinions of the people on increase of time of car free day
program and shift of time from morning to afternoon. Regarding increase of time, the
percentages of agree and disagree are closer such as 44 percent and 46 percent respectively.
So it can be concluded that if the duration of car free day program is increased then people
may not react pessimistically. In this case, the decision on increase of time may be
implemented gradually.
Table 6 Opinions regarding the increase of time and shift of car free day
Opinions
Percent
Increase of time (6 AM to 12 PM) Shift of time from morning to
afternoon (2 PM to 6 PM)
Disagree 46.0 56.0
Agree 44.0 34.0
Total 100.0 100.0
Opinion on shift of time from morning to afternoon is not similar to response of increase of
time. A good number of the people (56%) do not agree to shift the car free day program from
morning to afternoon. If the time has been shifted to afternoon, traffic jam will be occurred
which is not expected by the city dwellers, the respondents said. Some respondents pointed
out that the numbers of roads are not adequate in Surabaya. If the numbers of roads would be
adequate then it could be possible to channelize the traffic to the different routes to avoid the
traffic congestion in the afternoon. On the other hand, again the respondents added that in the
morning time the pressure of the vehicle is not so high; as a result if the car free day is held in
the morning instead of afternoon then it is manageable.
However from the table 6, it is noticed that 34 percent of the respondents agree to shift the car
free day program to afternoon. This amount is not so negligible amount at all. So it is the
matter of consideration by the car free day program organizer to think it optimistically to shift
car free day program from morning to afternoon step by step.
5.5 Assessment of Shift of the Car Free Day Program From Holiday to Week Day
The table 7 explains the views of respondents regarding shift of car free day from weekend to
workday. On this point, most of the respondents (70%) have refused to shift of car free day
program from weekend to work day whereas only 20 percent of the people have accepted the
idea though this percentage is not up to the mark compared to disagreed percentage. Some of
the people treat car free day as a social gathering event so they have mentioned that if it is
moved to work day then it will not be possible for them to enjoy the car free day program
because they will be busy with their work. The perceived knowledge by the people about car
free day is not fully correct. The car free day is not a matter of social gathering at all. This
program is held to reduce the car induced emission to make the environment healthy. What
the Surabaya people understand about the principle of car free day program should be
rectified. So it is very much important to convey the right message of car free day program to
the people by campaign, socialization, mobilization etc.
Table 7 Opinion about shift of car free day from weekend to work day
Opinion Percent
Disagree 70.0
Agree 20.0
Total 100.0
5.6 Association between Occupation and Shift of Car Free Day Program from Holiday to
Week Day
It is understood that if the car free day program is moved to work day then the working people
will be affected for their travel to office or/and back to home. In this case, the researchers tried
to figure out a relationship between the opinions on shift of car free day and occupational
pattern. From the table 8 below, government service holders disagree with the shift of car free
day program at highest percent (28.57%) while business men disagree at 25.71 percent as
second highest among the disagreed group. On the other hand, the private job holder agrees at
highest percentage (45%) to move the car free day from holiday to workday within the agreed
group. However, interesting thing is that the car free day program organized by the
government office in Surabaya but till most of government officers are not convinced by
themselves about shift of car free day program from weekend to work day. If the staffs of
government sector are not convinced first willingly, then it is difficult to play the role as
promoter for shifting from weekend to week day.
Table 8 Scenario about the opinion on shift of car free day program from weekend the work
day by occupational pattern
Govt. service 20 (28.57) 5 (25.00) 5 (50.00) 30 (30.0)
Private job 14 (20.00) 9 (45.00) 2 (20.00) 25 (25.0)
Business 18 (25.71) 3 (15.00) 1 (10.00) 22 (22.0)
Student 16 (22.86) 3 (15.00) 1 (10.00) 20 (20.0)
Wife 2 (2.86) 0 (0.00) 1 (10.00) 3 (3.0)
Total 70 (100.0) 20 (100.0) 10 (100.0) 100 (100.0)
6. MODEL ESTIMATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
The definition of the variables in this model is as follows:
Variables Definition Variables Definition
CFD2 as observed endogenous error11 as unobserved exogenous error10 as unobserved exogenous
CFD as unobserved endogenous error12 as unobserved exogenous error13 as unobserved exogenous error1 as unobserved exogenous error2 as unobserved exogenous
This model is estimated by applying the software AMOS 4.0 (Arbuckle and Wothke, 1999)
and its estimation results have been shown in figure 5. The estimation is conducted based on
maximum likelihood method. The calculated GFI (0.693) and AGFI (0.621) indices show that
the model accuracy is moderately good. On the other words, the resultant model has an
acceptable goodness-of-fit index.
Observing the cause-effect relationships among the variables (both latent variables and
observed variables), the rational signs are achieved. In the other way, the established model
structure properly captures the cause-effect relationships what exists in the dataset. From the
figure 5, car free day intention is highly dependent on utility of car free day and attitudes
towards car free day than level of service and socio-economic characteristics. Again, utility is
highly correlated to CO standard in the city but inversely. The level of service is positively
correlated to car free day intention but at a very small strength. However, as it is positively
correlated so it means, if the travel time, travel cost and waiting time are increased i.e. LOS is
decreased then the intention on car free day will also be decreased by the people which is
rational because when the travel time or travel cost of waiting time will be increased the
people would like to use the own car which is contradictory with the principles of car free day
program.
In terms of UTI, the negative sign of CO is expected and realized. In the other words, increase
of CO implies the disutility of UTI but if the VKTS is increased then UTI will be increased
which means the positive relationship. ATTI is presented by how many times car free day
(Repeat) could be repeated in a month and how many hours could be increased during a
particular car free day program (Increase). According the estimation results, ATTI is highly
correlated to Increase than Repeat. It implies increase of duration is more related to car free
day intention than repetition of car free day. It terms of LOS, travel cost is one of the most
important determinants. In SE, income is most prominent.
Figure 5 Standardized estimation results
0.99
GFI = 0.693; AGFI = 0.621; Sample = 100
The latent variable LOS and UTI are correlated by positive value though the strength is not so
high. Nonetheless, it means that LOS is increased (travel time, travel cost and waiting time are
decreased); the UTI will be increased through reducing CO by car and VKT savings. In the
other words, if the travel time, travel cost and waiting time are decreased then the people will
be interested to use the public transport rather than using their own car and VKT by car will
be saved automatically and eventually emission will also be reduced. Thus, UTI towards car
free day intention will be increased.
The unobserved variables SE and UTI are negatively correlated. It conveys that if the socio-
economic characteristics like income increase, the people will be biased to use car. Thus, the
UTI will be decreased. Another latent variables SE and ATTI are also negatively correlated.
The explanation is similar to earlier one. Increase of income is related to car usage and the car
user will not expect the repetition or increase of car free day. Thus, if SE is increased then
ATTI will be decreased.
Finally, between CDF1 and CFD2, CFD1 is almost perfectly correlated to car free day
intention (CFD). It infers that for car free day intention firstly it is imperative to be convinced
psychologically the car free day as a good program and then they will be inclined towards car
free day intention and the value 0.99 between CFD and CFD1 reflects this meaning.
Therefore, it can be concluded that no unexpected sign has been realized in the model.
7. CONCLUDING REMARKS
By providing a split from the usual pattern of behavior, car free days can create an opportunity
for re-evaluation of existing travel pattern and urban planning. With modal shift, it is possible
to find a way out to minimize the vehicular pollution problem and congestion problem within
the city. It is possible to provide a dramatic, tangible demonstration of how different the city
could be if travel choices were altered. However, in terms of cause-effect analysis, car free
day intention is highly related to UTI (utility of car free day) and UTI is also strongly
correlated to CO emission reduction. So it can be said that CO is significantly correlated to car
free day intention. On the other hand, some people consider car free day as a social gathering
event which is not fully correct. It means that the Surabaya people are not completely
understood about reason behind the car free day program. So it is very much important to
convey the right message of car free day program to the people by campaign, socialization,
mobilization etc and it is also needed to change their mind to accept car free day program
ardently to reduce the vehicular emission to make the city environment healthy. In addition
thorough evaluation of car free day is necessary to identify the procedures in order to improve
air quality and achieve car free day environmental goals. Thus a considerable travel
behavioral changes and public participation can improve the city in a way that a city will be
turned into a sustainable city over the next decade.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Partial funding was provided by Hiroshima University. This study was conducted through
ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability of Southeast Asia Secretariat.
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