Evaluate, Enhance, and Apply Aura Products in Public ... · Aura Products in Public Health Tracking...
Transcript of Evaluate, Enhance, and Apply Aura Products in Public ... · Aura Products in Public Health Tracking...
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Evaluate, Enhance, and Apply Aura Products in Public Health
Tracking – Year 2 Report
Yang Liu
September 20-21, 2016
Asheville, NC
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Study Motivation I
q IntheUS,skincancercostsanes1mated$1.7billiontotreatandresultsin$3.8billioninlostproduc1vity.Themostseveretypeofskincancer,melanoma,causesover75%ofskincancerdeaths(~9,500/yr).
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q Thelife1meriskofanAmericandevelopinginvasivemelanomais1in59(1in39forwhitemenand1in58inwhitewomen)(Rigeletal.2010)
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Study Motivation II
q UVradia1onderivedfromsunexposureiswell-knowntobethemostimportantcauseofskincancer.
q UVexposuredatausedinlarge-scalemelanomaepidemiologicresearchhasingeneralbeenes1matedfromweatherparametersandarepoorlyvalidated.q UVindexpublishedbyNWSq TOMSUVmeasurementsq Na1onalSolarRadia1onDatabase(NSRDB)bythe
Na1onalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)
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Research Team
q Emory:YangLiu(PI),FutuChen,JesseBelle,XiaMeng
q U.Nebraska(nowatU.Iowa):JunWangq CDCEPHT:JudyQualters,FuyuenYip,andYingZhou
q CDCDivisionofCancerPreven1onandControl(DCPC):BlytheRyersonandTomRichards,JaneHenley
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q Developacounty-level,solarradia1onandUVexposuredatasetfortheNa1onalEnvironmentalPublicHealthTracking(EPHT)networkatCDCtodistributethroughtheirna1onalportal
q Provideannualsolarradia1onandUVexposurees1matestotheDivisionofCancerPreven1onandControl(DCPC)atCDContheirmelanomaepidemiologicalmodelingeffort
Yr 2 Study Objectives
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Milestones
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Milestones Deadline Team Status Generation of OMI UV data 04/2016 UNL Complete Generation of UV exposures for DCPC
04/2016 Emory /CDC
Complete
Health and exposure data integration in GIS for Tracking
04/2016 Emory /CDC
Complete
Epidemiological study 04/2017 Emory /CDC
Ongoing
Data Transition to CDC 11/2016 Emory Ongoing Documentation & metadata preparation
04/2017 Emory Ongoing
Training and outreach 04/2017 Emory Ongoing
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Exposure Datasets q SolarAnywhere
q Proprietary,widelyusedbyenergyindustryq ReliesonGOESimageryandAquaMODISAOD,modeled
withGOCARTq GlobalHorizontalIrradiance(measureofinsola1on,unit:
Wh/m2)at0.1°resolu1onfor1998–2012q Permissionobtainedtodistributeaggregateddataon
Trackingportal
q NSRDBversion2q Hourlyground-measuredandmodeledGHIvaluesat1,300
sitesfortheyears1991-2010
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Trend of SolarAnywhere GHI
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Solar radiation exposure is better estimated for individual patients instead of using long-term averages
County-level, unweighted arithmetic annual mean daily total GHI
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NSRDB Spatial Modeling
q Correla1onsbetweenSolarAnywhereandNSRDBwerehigh,withsite-specificcorrela1onsrangingfrom0.84to0.98withanaverageof0.94
q Firstspa1allyinterpolateNSRDBdatatocoun1es,thenmergewithSolarAnywheretoextendtheoverallsolarradia1on1meseries
q UniversalKrigingwitheleva1onasthefixedeffectwasappliedtotheNSRDBdatatocalculatedcounty-levelGHIes1mates
q Datamergingisunderway
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OMI UV Data Processing
q Level2OMUVBproducts(spa1alresolu1on13x24km)betweenOctober1,2004andMay31,2014wereprocessed.
q Morerecentdataarecurrentlybeingprocessedq Firstparametertoextract:Erythemallyweighteddailydose(EDD)(Unit:J/m2)
q Spa1allyjoinedtocoun1es
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Interannual Trend of OMI UV Radiation
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Annual mean erythemally weighted daily dose (EDD) of UV radiation has been gradually increasing by ~1% per year over the past decade
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Epidemiological Study
q OurDCPCpartnersdevelopedgeneralizedlinearmixedmodels(GLMM)toanalyzetheassocia1onbetweenmelanomaincidenceratesandUVexposure
q Expectedcountsofmelanomaineachcountystra1fiedbysexandbyagegroupwerecalculatedandusedasdependentvariables(statetreatedasarandomeffect)
q Covariatesmayincludeeduca1on,poverty,householdincome,healthinsurance,indoortanning,rural-urbanstatus,etc.
l𝐨𝐠( 𝒀↓𝒊𝒋 )=(𝜸↓𝟎 + 𝝁↓𝟎𝒋 )+(𝜸↓𝟏 + 𝝁↓𝟏𝒋 )𝑼𝐕+∑↑▒(𝜸↓𝒌 + 𝝁↓𝒌𝒋 ) 𝑪𝒐𝒗𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒔+ 𝜺↓𝒊𝒋
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Preliminary Results Based on GHI
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All Stages Early-stage Late-stageSex / Global Horizontal Irradiance Rate Ratio Rate Ratio Rate RatioMalesLow (3149-3913) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)Medium (3914-4502) 1.13 1.14 1.11High (4503-5873) 1.24 1.27 1.28
FemalesLow (3149-3913) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)Medium (3914-4502) 1.03 1.05 1.02High (4503-5873) 1.04 1.06 1.14
CombinedLow (3149-3913) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref) 1.00 (ref)Medium (3914-4502) 1.09 1.10 1.08High (4503-5873) 1.16 1.18 1.23
Men tend to have higher risks of developing melanoma than women when exposed to high-level of solar radiation
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Application Readiness Level Status
q StartofprojectARL=3q CurrentARL=6q Milestone1:County-averageSolarAnywheredatahavebeendeliveredtoDCPCinFebruary.County-averageNSRDBdataarebeingprocessedforTracking.OMIUVdataarebeingprocessedforTracking.
q Milestone2:WripenapprovalhasbeenobtainedfromthevendorofSolarAnywhereforportalpublica1on.WehavemetwithTrackinginJuneandthefinalformatfordatadeliveryhasbeendecided.Codedevelopmentfordataproduc1onisinprogress.
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Budget
q Emoryyr2budgethasbeenfullyallocated.
q Aposi1vebalancewascarriedoverfromyr2becauseDr.JunWanghasbeentransi1oningfromUNLtoUIthepastyearandittooksome1metoestablishanewsubawardwithUI(executedinSeptember)
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Risks and Issues!
q Technical Challenges!q It took over two years to get approval to
access the indoor tanning data from the Census RDC!
q We are in the final stage to complete all the required security clearance !
q Actual data extraction will take place in Yr 3 but full implementation of this dataset in DCPC’s epidemiological study may be pushed to the NCE period!
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Plan for Year 3
q CompleteSolarAnywhere,NSRDB,andOMIdataproduc1onanddelivery
q Completemetadataprepara1onforTrackingportaldissemina1on
q Par1cipateinTrackingoutreacheffortstoadver1seourdataproducts
q AccessandextractCensusindoortanningdataq DeliverindoortanningdatatoDCPCq WorkwithDCPCandTrackingonmanuscriptprepara1on
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