Eurostat Implementation European system of accounts 2010 Eurostat 5 November 2014.

Eurostat

Implementation European system of accounts 2010

Eurostat5 November 2014

Eurostat

Content overview• Part A: Impact of ESA 2010 on GDP

• Part B: Impact of ESA 2010 on the statistics for the excessive deficit procedure (EDP)

Eurostat

Part A:

A.1. Impact on GDP

A.2. What is driving revisions to GDP

Eurostat

The main ESA 2010 changes

• Research and Development

• Expenditure on weapon systems

• Inexpensive tools for common operation

• Government, public/private sector delineation

• Employers' pension schemes

Eurostat

A.1. Impact on GDP

Level changes

Total impact on EU GDP level – 2010

3.67%

Methodologicalchanges (ESA2010)

2.27%+

Statisticalimprovements

1.40%

Eurostat

Methodological changes (ESA2010) Impact on

EU GDP 2010

1 Research and development 1.86%2 Expenditure on weapon systems 0.17%3 Inexpensive tools for common operations 0.07%4 Government, public/private sector delineation 0.06%5 Employers' pension schemes 0.06%6 Other methodological changes 0.05%T Total 2.27%

Eurostat

Statistical improvements Impact on

EU GDP 2010

1 New or improved data sources 0.45%2 Exhaustiveness and improvements related to

GNI reservations: illegal activities0.38%

3 Exhaustiveness and improvements related to GNI reservations: other

0.37%

4 Other statistical changes 0.20%

T Total 1.40%

Eurostat

Summarising the changes to EU GDP

20100

1

2

3

4

Methodological changes

Eurostat


20100

1

2

3

4

of which R&DMethodological changes

Other methodological changes

Eurostat


20100

1

2

3

4

of which R&D

Statistical impro-vements



Eurostat


20100

1

2

3

4of which illegal activities

of which R&D

Statistical impro-vements


Other statistical improvements


Eurostat

Changes in GDP levels: country data

CY SE FI CZ EU IT ES AT DK MT BG RO HU HR LU-202468

1012

R&D

Eurostat


CY SE FI CZ EU IT ES AT DK MT BG RO HU HR LU-202468

1012


R&D

Eurostat


-202468

1012

Total statistical changes


R&D

Eurostat

Nominal GDP under ESA95 and ESA 2010(€ billions)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EU28 (ESA 95)

Eurostat


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EU28 (ESA 95) EU28 (ESA 2010)

€461bnGDP of Sweden: €436bn

Eurostat


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EU28 (ESA 95) EU28 (ESA 2010) EA18 (ESA 95)

Eurostat


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EU28 (ESA 95) EU28 (ESA 2010) EA18 (ESA 95) EA18 (ESA 2010)

Eurostat

EU GDP growth rate

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EU28 (ESA 95)

Eurostat

EU GDP growth rate

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EU28 (ESA 95) EU28 (ESA 2010)

Eurostat

Euro area GDP growth rate

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EA18 (ESA 95)

Eurostat

Euro area GDP growth rate

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

EA18 (ESA 95) EA18 (ESA 2010)

Eurostat

A.2. What is driving the revisions to GDP?

Eurostat

What are the main components of the production approach?

Output Intermediate Consumption

Gross Value AddedEU28 = 11.5 tri euros

less

Eurostat

Where is the GVA (ESA2010) being generated?

INDUSTRY EU28Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

2%M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water..

19%Construction 6%

Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food services 19%Information & Communication 5%Financial and insurance activities 6%Real estate 11%

Prof, scientific activities, Admin services 10%

PAD, Education, human health, social work… 19%Arts, entertainment, recreation 4%

Eurostat


INDUSTRY EU28Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

2%M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water.. 19%Construction 6%

Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food services 19%Information & Communication 5%Financial and insurance activities 6%Real estate 11%Prof, scientific activities, Admin services 10%PAD, Education, human health, social work… 19%Arts, entertainment, recreation 4%

Eurostat


INDUSTRY EU28 EA18Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2% 2%M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water.. 19% 19%Construction 6% 6%

Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food services 19% 19%Information & Communication 5% 5%Financial and insurance activities 6% 6%Real estate 11% 11%Prof, scientific activities, Admin services 10% 10%PAD, Education, human health, social work… 19% 19%Arts, entertainment, recreation 4% 4%

Eurostat


DE20%

ES9%

FR16%

IT13%

UK14%

Other MS29%

Generation of GVA in EU 28

DE ES FR IT UK Other MS

Eurostat

Which industries are driving revisions to GDP?

EU28 EA18 DE FR UK IT ES-100000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

2010: Revisions to GVA by industry

M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water.. Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food servicesProf, scientific activities, Admin services PAD, Education, human health, social work…Other

Eurostat

Revisions to EU28 GVA by industry for the year 2010

-40000-20000

020000400006000080000

100000120000

OtherESITUKFRDE

Eurostat

What are the expenditure components of GDP?

• Final consumption expenditure Households and Non Profit Institutions Serving HH General Government

• Gross capital formation Gross fixed capital formation Changes in inventories Acq less Disp of valuables

• Exports less Imports

Eurostat

How do expenditure components contribute to GDP?

56%21%

18%5%

2010: EU28 GDP (ESA95) by expenditure components

P3 HH & NPISHP3 Gen GovtP51 GFCFOther expenditure components

Eurostat

How do expenditure components contribute to GDP?

57%22%

20% 1%

2010: EU28 GDP (ESA2010) by ex-penditure components

P3 HH & NPISHP3 Gen GovtP51 GFCFOther expenditure components

Eurostat

EU28 – ESA95 vs ESA2010 Expenditure components of GDP

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

GDP ESA2010P3 ESA2010P31_S14_S15P51GDP ESA95P3 ESA95P31_S14_S15P51 ESA95

Euro

s m

illio

n

Eurostat

GFCF and HH&NPISH Fin Cons Exp as a % of GDP

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

HH & NPISH FCE (ESA95)GFCF (ESA95)

Eurostat

GFCF and HH&NPISH Fin Cons Exp as a % of GDP

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

HH & NPISH FCE (ESA2010)HH & NPISH FCE (ESA95)GFCF (ESA2010)GFCF (ESA95)

Eurostat

EU28: Revisions from the expenditure components of GDP


0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

6000002010: Revisions to GDP

FCE GOVT FCE HH&NPISH GFCF Other

Eurostat

EU28: Revisions from the expenditure components of GDP


0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

6000002010: Revisions to GDP

P3_S13 P3_S14_S15 P51 Other

Eurostat

Next steps

• Asset breakdowns of gross fixed capital formation• Income components by industry

• Further analysis on trade• Further industry breakdowns up to A*64

Eurostat

Conclusions• Changes shift EU GDP upwards by 3.67%• Recalculation of back data no breaks in series• Changes hardly impact GDP growth rates

• Industries driving revisions to EU28 GDP B to E: M&Q, manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply… PAD, compulsory social security, education, human health and

social work activities

• Expenditure components driving revisions to levels of EU28 GDP Gross fixed capital formation HH & NPISH Final consumption expenditure

Eurostat

Part B: Government Finance Statistics

Overview of topics

B.1. Publication of deficit and debt and relating information – annual and quarterly data

B.2. Quick reminder on the ESA 2010-driven methodological changes on deficit and debt

B.3. Revisions of deficit and debt data

Eurostat

B.1. Publication of deficit and debt and relating information – annual data

• EA18 and EU28

• Individual Member State data

• GDP, deficit and debt

• % expenditure and revenue

• Short explanation about revisions

158/2014 - 21 October 2014

Eurostat

B.1. Publication of deficit and debt and relating information – annual data

Eurostat

B.1. Publication of deficit and debt and relating information – quarterly data

160/2014 - 23 October 2014

Second quarter of 2014 compared with first quarter of 2014 Government debt increased to 92.7% of GDP in euro area and to 87.0% in EU28

161/2014 - 24 October 2014 Second quarter of 2014 Seasonally adjusted government deficit down slightly to 2.5% of GDP in the euro area Deficit also down slightly to 3.0% of GDP in the EU28

Eurostat

B.1. Publication of deficit and debt – annual and quarterly data

Government statistics (gov)

Government finance statistics (EDP and ESA2010) (gov_gfs10)

Annual government finance statistics (gov_10a)

Government deficit and debt (gov_10dd)

Quarterly government finance statistics (gov_10q)

Government statistics – historical ESA95 data (gov_h)

Annual government finance statistics (gov_a) Structure of government debt (gov_dd_sgd)

Quarterly government finance statistics (gov_q)

Eurostat

B.1. Publication of deficit and debt – annual and quarterly data

Annual government finance statistics (gov_10a) Government deficit and debt (gov_10dd)

Government deficit/surplus, debt and associated data (gov_10dd_edpt1)

Transition from the working balance to the deficit/surplus (gov_10dd_edpt2)

Transition from the deficit/surplus to the change in debt (gov_10dd_edpt3)

Eurostat

• Delineation of general government sector – impact on deficit and debt A change in the criteria (quantitative and qualitative) which

may lead to the reclassification of entities into or outside the general government sector; "Special units" controlled by government

• Lump sums related to pension schemes – impact on deficit A change in the recording of lump sums paid to government in

relation to transfer of pension funds • Treatment of swaps – impact on deficit

The removal of an adjustment made for net interest flows associated with swaps and forward rate agreements

B.2. Quick reminder on ESA 2010 changes impacting deficit and debt

Eurostat

• Other changes due to ESA 2010 – impact on deficit and/or debt

Mainly standardised guarantees, payable tax credits and government issued permits

• Other changes not due to ESA 2010 – impact on deficit and/or debt

Benchmark revisions

Correction of errors and any other changes

B.2. Quick reminder on ESA 2010 changes impacting deficit and debt

Eurostat

Revision in EU28 debt ratio 2013: -1.8pp

from 87.1% (April 2014, ESA 95) to 85.4% (Oct. 2014, ESA 2010)

Due to revision of debt

+1.2pp

Due to revision of GDP

-3.0pp

ESA 2010

+1.0pp

Other statistical

improvements+0.2pp

Eurostat

Revisions to the government debt ratio for 2013 (from April to October 2014)

Perc

enta

ge p

oint

s of

G

DP

Eurostat

Revision in EU28 deficit ratio 2013: +0.1pp

from -3.3% (April 2014, ESA95) to -3.2% (Oct. 2014, ESA 2010)

Due to revision of deficit0.0pp

Due to revision of GDP

+0.1pp

ESA 2010

-0.1pp

Other statistical

improvements+0.1pp

Eurostat

Revisions to the government deficit ratio for 2013 (from April to October 2014)

Perc

enta

ge p

oint

s of

G

DP

Eurostat

ESA 2010-related revisions to govt deficit for 2013(from April to October 2014)

Perc

enta

ge p

oint

s of

G

DP

Eurostat

ESA 2010 undoing deficit impacts: lump sum payments for pension schemes (from April to October 2014)

Perc

enta

ge p

oint

s of

G

DP

Eurostat

Ireland case ESA 2010: reclassification of a bad bank IBRC*(from April to October 2014)

Perc

enta

ge p

oint

s of

G

DP

*IBRC - Irish Bank Resolution Corporation Limited

Eurostat

ReferencesFor further information

Eurostat website: • http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/port

al/eurostat/home/

Eurostat data base:• http

://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/



http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database




Eurostat Implementation European system of accounts 2010 Eurostat 5 November 2014.

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