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Transcript of European universities in a changing world Prof. Dr. Dirk Van Damme Centre for Educational Research...
European universities in a changing world
Prof. Dr. Dirk Van DammeCentre for Educational Research and InnovationOECD/EDU – CERI
Overview
• The context for expansion and innovation– Economical (and the impact of the crisis)– Demographic– Social
• Trends and challenges– Access, equity and success– Quality, ranking and diversification– Internationalisation and globalisation
• Change and innovation
12 June 2009 2Santander Group GA Cluj
The economic context
• The knowledge economy will need more high-skilled people with better and newer skills– There are more jobs expected asking for
high-level skills than there are higher education graduates, so there still is a need for expansion of participation and attainment
– If countries want to overcome the economic crisis and to remain competitive in the future, they will have to invest in human (and social) capital
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The economic context
• The current economic crisis will result in long-lasting high unemployment rates, especially among young people– Rather favourable labour market conditions at
onset of the crisis– OECD UNR rose to 7.3% in February 2009: 9m
more unemployed than 1 year earlier– Unemployment expected to rise to 10.1% in late
2010: nearly 30 million more jobless persons than in 2007
– Significant deterioration of youth unemployment rate
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Growth will collapse in 2009 and stagnate in 2010
Average 2008 2009 2010
1996-2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 q4 q4 q4
Per cent
Real GDP growth1 2.7 3.1 2.7 0.9 -4.3 -0.1 -1.5 -3.4 1.1
United States 3.2 2.8 2.0 1.1 -4.0 0.0 -0.8 -3.5 1.1
Euro area 2.1 3.0 2.6 0.7 -4.1 -0.3 -1.4 -3.5 0.8
Japan 1.1 2.0 2.4 -0.6 -6.6 -0.5 -4.3 -4.4 0.4
Unemployment rate36.6 6.0 5.6 6.0 8.4 9.9 6.5 9.3 10.1
Fiscal balance4-2.2 -1.3 -1.4 -3.0 -7.2 -8.7
Memorandum Items
World real trade growth 7.0 9.5 6.9 2.5 -13.2 1.5
World real GDP growth53.4 4.3 4.1 2.2 -2.7 1.2
1. Year-on-year increase; last three columns show the increase over a year earlier.
2. Per cent of potential GDP. Estimates of potential have not been revised and therefore do not incorporate a
possible reduction in supply implied by the downturn.
3. Per cent of labour force.
4. Per cent of GDP.
5. OECD countries plus Brazil, Russia, India and China only, representing 82% of world GDP at 2000
purchasing power parities.
Source: OECD.
Deteriorating youth unemployment rate
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AUT
BEL
CZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
FIN
FRAGRC
HUNIRL
ITA
LUX
NLD
NOR
POL
PRT
SWE
SVK TUR
GBR USA
AUS
NZL
KOR JPN
MEX
CAN
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
UR
in Q
1 20
09
% points difference Q1 2009-Q1 2008
OECD average
The economic context
• But:– Unemployment may provide strong
incentives to upgrading skills– Opportunity costs are decreasing– But social policies in higher education and
well-performing student support systems will be necessary to accommodate this
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The economic context
• The 21st century economy will need not only more skills but also new skills– ‘21st century skills’, ‘Skills for innovation’,
‘soft skills’– Such as: creativity, entrepreneurship,
critical thinking, curiosity, team-work, leadership, problem-solving
– Whether they are really ‘new’ can be questioned, but they certainly should have a stronger place in the curriculum
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The economic context
• Success of high-skills economies not only depends on production of skilled people, but also on skills utilisation– Low use of high skills (“over-schooling” or
“under-utilisation”?) in some countries– Skills mismatches– Can higher education also help societies to
become more innovative and oriented towards better utilisation of high skills?
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Source: Lisbon Council, 2006
The demographic context
• In OECD countries (situation completely different in other parts of the world)– Falling birth rates and higher life
expectancy result in ‘greying’ populations– Higher ‘old age dependency ratio’
• Will force us– To utilize talents and competences in older
populations and to keep them productive– To prepare young people for life long
learning12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 12
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The demographic context
The demographic context
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The demographic context
• Also, more people on the move result in more diverse populations
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The social context
• Persisting inequality of opportunity in higher ed, but continuing expansion improves equity
• Higher education will probably remain engine of meritocracy and social mobility for disadvantaged groups– Students from ethnic minorities and
migrants– ‘Reservoirs’ of talents in underrepresented
sectors of population
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Source: Education at a Glance 2008
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Source: CERI/OECD, 2008
The social context
• Changing value systems will further increase (and modify) the demand for higher learning, but also the way learners will want to learn– More secular and more oriented to self-
expression– Providing more opportunities for self-
directed learning
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The social context
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Access, equity and success
• Higher education systems will continue to grow and expand– Higher education has been successful in
responding to massification and contributed to enormous growth of higher education attainment
– Current growth rates can and will probably continue in most countries
– In some countries a very impressive growth is realised
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Source: CERI/OECD, 2008
Scenario 1 = Status-quo Scenario 2 = Trend
Access, equity and success
• But we need active access policies, in order– To increase participation of
underrepresented groups, not only because of the economic benefit of tapping their talents, but also because of social cohesion
– To diversify participation, also to older learners in the perspective of lifelong learning
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Access, equity and success
• But access and participation is not enough– Efficiency of teaching and learning
arrangements can and should be improved– Success rates of disadvantaged students
should be increased by active policies of support and assistance
– A ‘pedagogy of success’ instead of a ‘pedagogy of failure’• Selection may have been appropriate in
educational systems aimed at producing relatively small elites, but is much less so in societies that need to develop all talents
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Quality, excellence and ranking
• Quality of higher education has improved a lot, supported by internal and external quality assurance arrangements– In the context of the Bologna process QA
serves to uphold the recognition of degrees– Issue of supportability
• But over the recent years the focus has shifted– To a strong preoccupation with the holy grail
of ‘excellence’, the ‘reputation race’, a focus on rankings and a desire to belong to the top-100 of global rankings
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Quality, excellence and ranking
• A debate is needed on diversification of institutions and their missions– No proliferation of top-research– Accessible, high-level education is needed
for high numbers of students– Differentiation of academic and vocational
missions– Cf. European ‘mapping’ and ‘diversification’
projects, supported in Leuven Communiqué 2009
– Cf. diversified, multidimensional rankings12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 26
Internationalisation
• Expansion of international students• Some European countries are increasing
their share, but many others lag behind• Attractiveness of continental European
HE has not improved drastically– English-speaking countries remain
favourite study destinations
• Crucial importance of language
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Source: Education at a Glance, 2008
Globalisation
• Worldwide convergence and integration– Integrated global system of scientific research– Increasing mobility of students, researchers,
teaching staff and institutional leaders• Emerging market of academics and researchers
– Technology-driven expansion of new delivery modes in teaching and learning
– International labour market of graduates• Globalising organisation of professions• Migration of high-skilled labour is to increase
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Change and innovation
• In order to address these challenges ‘more of the same’ will not suffice; change and innovation are needed
• “The longevity of the university is not a result of never changing – but rather a credit to its ability to evolve, adapt, and change over time” (Clark Kerr)
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Change and innovation
• In struggling to cope with massification higher education institutions have adapted to a mode of operation characterized by standardisation– Thus far also the Bologna Process has
been focused on convergence, even harmonisation; the next phase 2010-2020 will focus much more at diversification
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Change and innovation
• But now we need more diversification to successfully meet the demands of a differentiated reality– Diversification of the institutional
landscape– Diversification of teaching & learning
arrangements for a more heterogeneous student population
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Change and innovation
• Critical issue 1– Those countries / institutions will be
successful which will be able to diversify provision and offer higher added value• Expansion: more learners• Efficiency: more successful learning• Equity and Diversity: diverse and equitable
answers to diversified demands
– Increasingly competing market– Technological innovation is part of the answer
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Change and innovation
• Critical issue 2:– Will HEI’s be able to sustain their role and
position as dominant producers of knowledge, skills and qualifications?
– Higher education institutions exist because they provide the institutional arrangements for effective and powerful learning environments
– But increasing number of competitors• More effective alternative providers?• Direct skills assessment
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Concluding
• Once again universities will have to show their capacity for change in an increasingly demanding and competitive environment– Institutional will and capacity for change
will be crucial
• Universities cannot face this on their own, but have to engage in various kinds of networking
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THANK YOU !
www.oecd.org/edu/ceri
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