EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Proposed list of CC state and impact indicators...

EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGEEUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Proposed list of CC Proposed list of CC

state and impact state and impact indicatorsindicators

Jelle van Minnen (RIVM)Jelle van Minnen (RIVM)

in cooperation with:in cooperation with:Markus Erhard (PIK) & Thomas Voigt (UBA)Markus Erhard (PIK) & Thomas Voigt (UBA)

ETC/ACC-WorkshopETC/ACC-WorkshopCopenhagen 22/23 Nov. 2001Copenhagen 22/23 Nov. 2001

Proposed list of CC Proposed list of CC

state and impact state and impact indicatorsindicators

Jelle van Minnen (RIVM)Jelle van Minnen (RIVM)

in cooperation with:in cooperation with:Markus Erhard (PIK) & Thomas Voigt (UBA)Markus Erhard (PIK) & Thomas Voigt (UBA)

ETC/ACC-WorkshopETC/ACC-WorkshopCopenhagen 22/23 Nov. 2001Copenhagen 22/23 Nov. 2001


Why indicators in ETC/ACCWhy indicators in ETC/ACCWhy indicators in ETC/ACCWhy indicators in ETC/ACC Identification of CC state and impact Identification of CC state and impact

indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report)under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report)

Feasibility study is needed on CC Feasibility study is needed on CC indicatorsindicators

To support the process of Integrated To support the process of Integrated Environment AssessmentEnvironment Assessment

Identification of CC state and impact Identification of CC state and impact indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report)under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report)

Feasibility study is needed on CC Feasibility study is needed on CC indicatorsindicators

To support the process of Integrated To support the process of Integrated Environment AssessmentEnvironment Assessment


Criteria for IndicatorsCriteria for IndicatorsCriteria for IndicatorsCriteria for Indicators Accessible/attractive to the eye Accessible/attractive to the eye Correct to interpret Correct to interpret Representative (issue, area)Representative (issue, area) Regularly updated Regularly updated Reference value Reference value International comparable International comparable Scientifically sound Scientifically sound Consensus on data validity/ methods Consensus on data validity/ methods

Appropriate data sets (e.g. length) Appropriate data sets (e.g. length) Sensitive to CC Sensitive to CC (Related to policy process)(Related to policy process) (Applicable in assessments)(Applicable in assessments)

Accessible/attractive to the eye Accessible/attractive to the eye Correct to interpret Correct to interpret Representative (issue, area)Representative (issue, area) Regularly updated Regularly updated Reference value Reference value International comparable International comparable Scientifically sound Scientifically sound Consensus on data validity/ methods Consensus on data validity/ methods

Appropriate data sets (e.g. length) Appropriate data sets (e.g. length) Sensitive to CC Sensitive to CC (Related to policy process)(Related to policy process) (Applicable in assessments)(Applicable in assessments)

EEA


Indicator evaluationIndicator evaluation Indicator evaluationIndicator evaluationA) Core set indicator, available in the short termA) Core set indicator, available in the short term

B) Core set indicator, suitable on medium termB) Core set indicator, suitable on medium term

C) Core set indicator, suitable on long termC) Core set indicator, suitable on long term

D) Potentially suitable core set (additional analysis D) Potentially suitable core set (additional analysis needed)needed)

E) Unclear/soft indicator (affected by many other factors/E) Unclear/soft indicator (affected by many other factors/

data not sufficient)data not sufficient)

F) Not suitable as indicatorF) Not suitable as indicator

A) Core set indicator, available in the short termA) Core set indicator, available in the short term

B) Core set indicator, suitable on medium termB) Core set indicator, suitable on medium term

C) Core set indicator, suitable on long termC) Core set indicator, suitable on long term

D) Potentially suitable core set (additional analysis D) Potentially suitable core set (additional analysis needed)needed)

E) Unclear/soft indicator (affected by many other factors/E) Unclear/soft indicator (affected by many other factors/

data not sufficient)data not sufficient)

F) Not suitable as indicatorF) Not suitable as indicator


Indicator categoriesIndicator categoriesIndicator categoriesIndicator categories

1) Climate and Atmosphere1) Climate and Atmosphere

2) Cryosphere2) Cryosphere

3) Soils and Resources3) Soils and Resources

4) Agriculture and Forestry4) Agriculture and Forestry

5) Ecosystems and Biodiversity5) Ecosystems and Biodiversity

6) Hydrology and Water resources6) Hydrology and Water resources

7) Marine Environment and Coastal Zones7) Marine Environment and Coastal Zones

8) Economy and Infrastructure8) Economy and Infrastructure

9) Human Health9) Human Health

1) Climate and Atmosphere1) Climate and Atmosphere

2) Cryosphere2) Cryosphere

3) Soils and Resources3) Soils and Resources

4) Agriculture and Forestry4) Agriculture and Forestry

5) Ecosystems and Biodiversity5) Ecosystems and Biodiversity

6) Hydrology and Water resources6) Hydrology and Water resources

7) Marine Environment and Coastal Zones7) Marine Environment and Coastal Zones

8) Economy and Infrastructure8) Economy and Infrastructure

9) Human Health9) Human Health


Proposed indicatorsProposed indicators Proposed indicatorsProposed indicators

Climate & atmosphereClimate & atmosphere

Core set indicators (categories A,B,C)Core set indicators (categories A,B,C) Temperature changeTemperature change Rate of temperature change Rate of temperature change PrecipitationPrecipitation Snow coverSnow cover Climate indicesClimate indices

Other indicators (categories D,E)Other indicators (categories D,E) Lightning frequency, shrinking of stratosphere, Lightning frequency, shrinking of stratosphere,

changes in cloudinesschanges in cloudiness

Climate & atmosphereClimate & atmosphere

Core set indicators (categories A,B,C)Core set indicators (categories A,B,C) Temperature changeTemperature change Rate of temperature change Rate of temperature change PrecipitationPrecipitation Snow coverSnow cover Climate indicesClimate indices

Other indicators (categories D,E)Other indicators (categories D,E) Lightning frequency, shrinking of stratosphere, Lightning frequency, shrinking of stratosphere,

changes in cloudinesschanges in cloudiness


European annual mean temperature deviations 1850-2000

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1850

1855

1860

1865

1870

1875

1880

1885

1890

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Dif

fere

nce

fro

m a

vera

ge

1960

- 1

990

ann

ual

tem

per

atu

re (

oC

)

Yearly deviation from 1961-90 normal mean

10 Year Trend, Gaussian filtered

Example: Temperature in EuropeExample: Temperature in EuropeExample: Temperature in EuropeExample: Temperature in Europe


Proposed indicators (II)Proposed indicators (II) Proposed indicators (II)Proposed indicators (II)

CryosphereCryosphere

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators extend & mass glaciersextend & mass glaciers Arctic sea iceArctic sea ice Permafrost (temperature profiles)Permafrost (temperature profiles)

Other indicators Other indicators Ice break-up arctic coastal zonesIce break-up arctic coastal zones

CryosphereCryosphere

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators extend & mass glaciersextend & mass glaciers Arctic sea iceArctic sea ice Permafrost (temperature profiles)Permafrost (temperature profiles)

Other indicators Other indicators Ice break-up arctic coastal zonesIce break-up arctic coastal zones


Example: Example: Change in arctic sea ice extentChange in arctic sea ice extentExample: Example: Change in arctic sea ice extentChange in arctic sea ice extent

0.15 0.3 0.45 0.6 0.75 0.9

F raction of ocean covered by sea ice

Met Office / Hadley Centre

Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research


Proposed indicators (III)Proposed indicators (III) Proposed indicators (III)Proposed indicators (III)

Soils and land resourcesSoils and land resources

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Carbon sequestration in vegetation and soilsCarbon sequestration in vegetation and soils

Other indicators Other indicators Soil degradation, soil moistureSoil degradation, soil moisture

Soils and land resourcesSoils and land resources

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Carbon sequestration in vegetation and soilsCarbon sequestration in vegetation and soils

Other indicators Other indicators Soil degradation, soil moistureSoil degradation, soil moisture


Proposed indicators (IV)Proposed indicators (IV) Proposed indicators (IV)Proposed indicators (IV)

Agriculture and forestryAgriculture and forestry

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Yield trends of important crop typesYield trends of important crop types Trends in forest growthTrends in forest growth Shift of tree linesShift of tree lines

Other indicators Other indicators Pests and diseases, disturbance regimes, forest Pests and diseases, disturbance regimes, forest

composition composition

Agriculture and forestryAgriculture and forestry

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Yield trends of important crop typesYield trends of important crop types Trends in forest growthTrends in forest growth Shift of tree linesShift of tree lines

Other indicators Other indicators Pests and diseases, disturbance regimes, forest Pests and diseases, disturbance regimes, forest

composition composition


Proposed indicators Proposed indicators (V)(V) Proposed indicators Proposed indicators (V)(V)Ecosystems and biodiversityEcosystems and biodiversity

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Phenology/growing season lengthPhenology/growing season length Arrival date of birdsArrival date of birds Egg-laying datesEgg-laying dates Ecosystem compositionEcosystem composition

Other indicators Other indicators Disturbances, seasonal changes (e.g. insects)Disturbances, seasonal changes (e.g. insects)

Ecosystems and biodiversityEcosystems and biodiversity

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Phenology/growing season lengthPhenology/growing season length Arrival date of birdsArrival date of birds Egg-laying datesEgg-laying dates Ecosystem compositionEcosystem composition

Other indicators Other indicators Disturbances, seasonal changes (e.g. insects)Disturbances, seasonal changes (e.g. insects)


Example: Example: Change in LGP 1982-1991Change in LGP 1982-1991Example: Example: Change in LGP 1982-1991Change in LGP 1982-1991

Myneni et al 1999


Proposed indicators (VI)Proposed indicators (VI) Proposed indicators (VI)Proposed indicators (VI)

Hydrology and water resourcesHydrology and water resources

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Irrigation water demandIrrigation water demand River temperatureRiver temperature Water scarcity index Water scarcity index

Other indicators Other indicators River discharge, flooding frequency, groundwater River discharge, flooding frequency, groundwater

level, temperature profiles of inland lakes level, temperature profiles of inland lakes

Hydrology and water resourcesHydrology and water resources

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Irrigation water demandIrrigation water demand River temperatureRiver temperature Water scarcity index Water scarcity index

Other indicators Other indicators River discharge, flooding frequency, groundwater River discharge, flooding frequency, groundwater

level, temperature profiles of inland lakes level, temperature profiles of inland lakes


Proposed indicators (VII)Proposed indicators (VII) Proposed indicators (VII)Proposed indicators (VII)

Marine environment and coastal Marine environment and coastal zoneszones

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Sea (surface) temperatureSea (surface) temperature Storm surges Storm surges Sea level riseSea level rise Thermohaline circulationThermohaline circulation

Other indicators Other indicators Shoreline retreat, fishery & aquaculture productivityShoreline retreat, fishery & aquaculture productivity

Marine environment and coastal Marine environment and coastal zoneszones

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators Sea (surface) temperatureSea (surface) temperature Storm surges Storm surges Sea level riseSea level rise Thermohaline circulationThermohaline circulation

Other indicators Other indicators Shoreline retreat, fishery & aquaculture productivityShoreline retreat, fishery & aquaculture productivity


Proposed indicators (VIII)Proposed indicators (VIII) Proposed indicators (VIII)Proposed indicators (VIII)

Economy and infrastructureEconomy and infrastructure

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators InsuranceInsurance Electricity, gas & water consumption Electricity, gas & water consumption

Other indicatorsOther indicators TourismTourism

Economy and infrastructureEconomy and infrastructure

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators InsuranceInsurance Electricity, gas & water consumption Electricity, gas & water consumption

Other indicatorsOther indicators TourismTourism


Proposed indicators Proposed indicators (IX)(IX) Proposed indicators Proposed indicators (IX)(IX)Human healthHuman health

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators

Other indicators in broad setOther indicators in broad set Tropospheric ozone impacts, mortality due to heat Tropospheric ozone impacts, mortality due to heat

waves & freezing periods, allergies, vector and water-waves & freezing periods, allergies, vector and water-borne diseasesborne diseases

Human healthHuman health

Core set indicatorsCore set indicators

Other indicators in broad setOther indicators in broad set Tropospheric ozone impacts, mortality due to heat Tropospheric ozone impacts, mortality due to heat

waves & freezing periods, allergies, vector and water-waves & freezing periods, allergies, vector and water-borne diseasesborne diseases


Summary & conclusions Summary & conclusions Summary & conclusions Summary & conclusions

ETC-ACC indicator data set developed for ETC-ACC indicator data set developed for reporting purposes & IEAreporting purposes & IEA

Indicator data set fulfils EEA & other criteriaIndicator data set fulfils EEA & other criteria Core data set for all 9 categories: Core data set for all 9 categories:

– 3 indicators category A, 3 indicators category A, – 10 category B,10 category B,– 8 category C, 8 category C, – 23 category D23 category D

ETC-ACC indicator data set developed for ETC-ACC indicator data set developed for reporting purposes & IEAreporting purposes & IEA

Indicator data set fulfils EEA & other criteriaIndicator data set fulfils EEA & other criteria Core data set for all 9 categories: Core data set for all 9 categories:

– 3 indicators category A, 3 indicators category A, – 10 category B,10 category B,– 8 category C, 8 category C, – 23 category D23 category D


Thank you for your attention!!! Thank you for your attention!!!

Time for discussion dinnerTime for discussion dinner

Thank you for your attention!!! Thank you for your attention!!!

Time for discussion dinnerTime for discussion dinner

EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Proposed list of CC state and impact indicators...

Documents

Transcript of EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE Proposed list of CC state and impact indicators...