European telco industry at a crossroad
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Transcript of European telco industry at a crossroad
European Telco Industry at a Cross Road Opportunities in a complex scenario
Telecommunications and Media Forum, MadridJune, 24th 2008
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2
01Role of Telco industry in European competitiveness
02Most relevant trends in Telco industry
03Network deployment challenges
04 Framework for an investment scenario
05 European regulatory framework
Index
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1,5
1,0
1,0
0,6
1,9
0,8
0,6
1.7EU 25
USA
China
Japan
Exports
Imports
The UE is the largest economy of the world followed closely by USA at a GDP of 14.6 and 13.2 trillion USD respectively
The UE is the largest economy of the world followed closely by USA at a GDP of 14.6 and 13.2 trillion USD respectively
The EU is today the largest economy of the world
Source: IMF
14,6
13,2
4,4
2,9
2,6
2,4
2,3
1,9
1,3
1,2
1,1
1,0
0,9
0,9
EU 27
USA
Japan
Germany
China
UK
France
Italy
Canada
Spain
Brazil
Russia
Korea
India
World’s largest economiesGDP 2006, Trillion USD (nominal)
World’s leading tradersMerchandise trade flow; Y2006; Trillion USD
Source: WTO
-0.22
-0.880.20
0.180.07
175
135
200
84
36
217
183
103
49
8
USA EU 27 SEA LatAm Africa
FDI Inflows
FDI Outflows
World Investment FlowsFDI investment flows; Y2006; Billion USD
Benefit Deficit
Source: UNCTAD, Eurostat
1
1, 2: Exclude internal operations of member countries
EU countries
0.07
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There are 16 European companies among the top World 30 companies led by Royal Dutch Shell and BP
Approximately 29% of the world's leading 2,000 companies are European
There are 16 European companies among the top World 30 companies led by Royal Dutch Shell and BP
Approximately 29% of the world's leading 2,000 companies are European
A significant part of world’s top companies are European
351,1
347,3
318,9
274,3
207,4
204,8
200,6
190,2
172,5
168,4
168,3
160,1
158,3
146,8
139,7
Wal-Mart Stores
Exxon Mobil
Royal Dutch Shell
BP
General Motors
Toyota Motor
Chevron
DaimlerChrysler
ConocoPhillips
Total
General Electric
Ford Motor
ING Group
Citigroup
AXA
World’s largest companiesRevenues 2006, Billion USD
132,3
131,6
128,5
125,4
121,2
117,0
115,4
113,2
110,5
109,2
109,0
107,8
107,3
107,2
101,8
Volkswagen
Sinopec
Crédit Agricole
Allianz
Fortis
Bank of America
HSBC Holdings
American Int.
China N. Petroleum
BNP Paribas
ENI
UBS
Siemens
State Grid
Assicurazioni G.
Source: Global Fortune 500
World’s largest companies (cont.)Revenues 2006, Billion USD
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
European Companies
Revenue: 66.4 Rank:77
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33
35
37
39
41
43
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0,5
2
3,5
5
6,5
8
9,5
11
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
However, during the last decade the EU has underperformedin terms of growth, productivity and competition
China
Anemic Growth
Real GDP Growth(Percentage)
Anemic Growth
Real GDP Growth(Percentage)
Stagnant productivity
Labour productivity(Nominal prices)
Stagnant productivity
Labour productivity(Nominal prices)
Lagging in competitiven
ess
Competitiveness1
(Lisbon score -Ranking of performance –scale 0-7)
Lagging in competitiven
ess
Competitiveness1
(Lisbon score -Ranking of performance –scale 0-7)
India
USA
EU 15
USAJapan
Source: IMF; World Economic Outlook
Source: OECD
4,97
5,55
20041- Competitiveness score based on publicly available data (Internet penetration, unemployment rates, etc.) and results from World Economic Forum’s Executive Opinion
survey (EOS)- 2 East Asia only available for 2006 scores, refers to competitive markets: Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore
Source: The Lisbon Review (2006 and 2004)
€
%
CAGR 98-062.2
%2.3%
1.5%
4,84
5,455,28
2006
EU25
USA
East Asia2
EU
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ICT, beyond Solow’s paradox, is the key factor for competitiveness in a global world
6
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ln (GDP per Capita)Source: Oliver Wyman analysis; IMF, ITU
DO
I in
dex r
an
k
Information Society Index vs. GDPRelationship between DOI and GDP per capita (at logarithmic scale)
Korea
LuxembourgNorway
Qatar
Ireland
DenmarkHong KongTaiwan
Estonia
Greece
Arabia Saudi
Botswana
LithuaniaBulgaria
China
Egypt
Uzbekistan
Congo
BurundiChad
Niger
The DOI index (Digital Opportunity Index) measures the trends in infrastructure, usage and opportunities that shape the Information Society of a country
The DOI index (Digital Opportunity Index) measures the trends in infrastructure, usage and opportunities that shape the Information Society of a country
R2 = 0,8645
Spain
USA
France
Japan
Productivity growth GDP per person employed 1995-2000
0,7%
1,6%
0,5%
4,7%
Europe USA
Non ICT using industries ICT using industries
x2.3
x9.4
Source: The Contribution of ICT Using Industries to Productivity Growth, Bart Van Ark, 2003Note: Classification of ICT and non-ICT using industries according to the share of ICT capital in total capital services from Stiroh analysis (2002)
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ICT
What’s the UE's positioning in ICT?
IT HARDWARE & SOFTWARETELECOMMUNICATIONS
CONTENT / MEDIA
Telecom equipment &
handsets (56 b €)
Telecom services(322 b €)
Content / Media
Tele
com
IT h
ardw
are and so
ftware
Films (13.2 b €*) TV services
(76 b €)
Videogames(10,4 b €)
Music
Computer hardware (105 b €)
Software and computer services
(225 b €)
Consumer electronics (67 b €)
Revenues 2007 b €
Source: DigiWorld 08, OECD Source Music: IFPI Digital Music Report 2007, eMarketerSource Movies: Screen Digest for the EC January 2007 only EUSource: Videogames: Activision, eMarketer, DFC intelligence,
FX applied
Telecommunications accounts for 45% of
DigiWorld markets in Europe
Telecommunications accounts for 45% of
DigiWorld markets in Europe
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21,0
19,0
17,0
15,5
9,0
6,7
6,5
5,5
5,0
39,5%
15,1%
12,9%
9,2%
7,7%
EU is the global leader in telecommunications equipment and handsets
Telecommunications equipment companiesEquipment sales 2005 (Billion EUR)
Source: DigiWorld 07, End 2006
Handset manufacturing companiesMarket share Q3 07
Source: iSuppli Corp. October 2007
Highly concentrated industry: the big four players represent 61% of the market
Out of the top five companies, three of European origin
Highly concentrated industry: the big four players represent 61% of the market
Out of the top five companies, three of European origin
The global market leader is a European landmark
2 out of the top 5 handset manufacturers are from European origin (market share), however increasing trend of Asian manufacturers
The global market leader is a European landmark
2 out of the top 5 handset manufacturers are from European origin (market share), however increasing trend of Asian manufacturers
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369
256
252
229
176
170
160
157
146
131
European telecom operators are among the largest in the world…
190
183
148
140
102
95
89
79
70
69
Telecommunications services companiesEnterprise value (Billion EUR February 27th 2008)
4 of the top 8 telecommunications companies worldwide are European, and differing from US or Asian companies, operate
globally.
*
Source: Operators’ annual reports 2007
World’s largest operatorsMillion of accesses (subscriptions) as of Dec ‘07
Source: Bloomberg Feb 27th, 2008
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Telefónica
AméricaMovil
Vodafone
DeutscheTelekom
FranceTelecom
ATT
Verizon
ChinaMobile
ChinaTelecom
…and they have been the first to get global
Source: Oliver Wyman Analysis; Company data Source: Company data
T
V
D
F
V
T
T
T T
T
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
D
DD
D DVD
D
DD
T
T
T
T
T
T T
T
T
TVenezuelaT
T
T
D
T
V
V
V
V
V
Czech Republic
Hungary
GermanyIreland
UK
France
SpainPortugal Greece
Italy
Malta
Austria
Slovak Rep
Macedonia
Croatia
Mexico
Guatemala
Panamá
Ecuador
Colombia
Perú
Chile
Argentina
Uruguay
Brazil
El SalvadorNicaragua
Morocco
New Zealand
Egypt
South Africa
India
Australia
Albania
VF
F
F
F
PolandF
F
FSwitzerland
F
FF
FF
FSenegal F
Cameroon
FIvory Coast
FFGuinea
F F
Mali
BotswanaF
MadagascarMauritius
F Jordan
F
F
F
Vietnam
New Caledonia
Vanuatu
TT
TChina
AM/T
AM
AM
AMAM
AM
AMAM
Puerto Rico
Dominican R.
HondurasAM
AM
AM
AM
AM
AM
AM
AM
AM
Operators’ geographical presenceY2006
Operators’ foreign revenuesPercentage; Y2006
>30%
>55%
<5%
~ 0%
~ 0%
<5%
Extra EU revenue
Jamaica
AM>15%
>20%
>35% 62%Extra EU revenue
Extra Spain
revenue
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European companies have a weak presence in the IT software & hardware industry, consumer electronic, Internet and contents, but can take the lead in the telecom side
Europe USA Asia
TelecomConnectivi
ty
TelecomConnectivi
ty
IT hardware
& software
IT hardware
& software
Content / Media
Content / Media
DEFEND EU MARKET
OPPORTUNITIES IN SOME SUBMARKET
S
OPPORTUNITY TO BE GLOBAL LEADER
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Telecom industry is the key factor for keeping european competitiveness in a global economy
12
Not all of us are always aware of
this fact, …..
Not all of us are always aware of
this fact, …..
… nor are authorities or
regulators
… nor are authorities or
regulators
ICT DIRECT
CONTRIBUTION OF
EU’S ECONOMY
ICT DIRECT
CONTRIBUTION OF
EU’S ECONOMY
Total GDP EU27: 14.6 Trillion Euro
In GDP:
% of total GDP
In GDP:
% of total GDP
8%1.2 T € In
Growth:
% of GDP growth
In Growth:
% of GDP growth Total EU27 GDP
growth: 2.8%
25%0.7%
In R&D:
% of R&D expense
In R&D:
% of R&D expense Total EU27 R&D
expenditure: 212.8 b €
25%53.2 B €
In Employment
% of total employment
In Employment
% of total employment
6%13 M
Total EU27 employed:
232 million people
6%13 M
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01 Role of Telco industry in European competitiveness
02Most relevant trends in Telco industry
03Network deployment challenges
04 Framework for an investment scenario
05 European regulatory framework
Index
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Telco industry is facing an scenario where 3 major trends are shaping the future
The search for scale will continue, mostly through consolidation
The search for scale will continue, mostly through consolidation
In the Telecom industry, size matters because economies of scale are crucial
US, Chinese and some European operators are looking for large scale However European operators, unlike other global
counterparts, have achieved scale through overseas acquisitions instead of regional consolidation, which left the EU industry highly fragmented
Currently the bulk of European industry is composed of sub-optimal small/medium sized operators
In the Telecom industry, size matters because economies of scale are crucial
US, Chinese and some European operators are looking for large scale However European operators, unlike other global
counterparts, have achieved scale through overseas acquisitions instead of regional consolidation, which left the EU industry highly fragmented
Currently the bulk of European industry is composed of sub-optimal small/medium sized operators
CONSOLIDATION1
Industries convergence and the emergence of new disruptive players
Industries convergence and the emergence of new disruptive players
Fixed-mobile, services and platforms convergence is causing the blurring of boundaries between industries and the emergence of new players with disruptive business models that threaten the established Telecom Industry
Fixed-mobile, services and platforms convergence is causing the blurring of boundaries between industries and the emergence of new players with disruptive business models that threaten the established Telecom Industry
CONVERGENCE2
Operators are to enter a new investment cycle
Operators are to enter a new investment cycle
The Telecom Industry is facing a new investment cycle to set the basis for tomorrow’s Information Society
There is a risk that EU may be left behind in the deployment of these new infrastructures, due to regulations and policies that do not foster investment
The Telecom Industry is facing a new investment cycle to set the basis for tomorrow’s Information Society
There is a risk that EU may be left behind in the deployment of these new infrastructures, due to regulations and policies that do not foster investment
NEW INVESTMENT CYCLE3
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01 Role of Telco industry in European competitiveness
02Most relevant trends in Telco industry
03Network deployment challenges
04 Framework for an investment scenario
05 European regulatory framework
Index
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Technological evolution could support and foster broadband growth …
Nominal maximum speed per technology
1995 2001 2003 2006 2010
GSM
GPRS
UMTS
HSxPA
LTE
0,0096 Mbps
0,08
Mbps
0,384
Mbps
14,4
Mbps
100
Mbps
Speed per access
Mbps
198285 88 92 96200002 04 10 122014
Moo
re L
aw x
2 ev
ery
18 m
onth
s
Copper Fiber
ADSL
ADSL2+
VDSL
FTTH
Mobile Broadband Fixed Broadband
0,0330,056
0,1280,257
0,512
22
0,0024
0,0012
0,0003
0,0280,0144
0,0096
1
6 8
0,0001
0,001
0,01
0,1
1
10
100
1000
08
Maximum commercial speed in Europe
Source: IEE Spectrum, Julio 2004; Phil Edholm; Hussein Eslambolchi
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… that new services and user habits require …
IP Traffic
EE.UU. 2015
* Film download
* Video conference
* Distributed processing
and backup over the network
* Internet Video , Games,Virtual Worlds
* IPTV* Corporate IP
* E-mail, Web, VoIP, pictures,
music* (=1 Zettabyte)*
Estimated traffic 2015 EE.UU. Exabytes
1 Zettabyte
50 times 2006 traffic
50 millions LOC*
* LOC = American Congress Library Source: Discovery Institute 2008
Those are services that citizens demand and deserve.
Access to those services will become the true digital divide
Those are services that citizens demand and deserve.
Access to those services will become the true digital divide
Source: IDC, Ovum, Pyramid, Cisco IBSG
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1. Smart pipe
VoIP
@
TV - VOD
Mobile
Telco-managed pipe
Monetisation
Subscription
Advertising
e-commerce
Digital Ecosystem
2. Dumb pipe
User or portal managed pipe
Web
PORTAL
• Advertising• Subscription• eCommerce• …
Discussion about NGN/NGA management principles goes back to the debate smart vs. dumb pipes, but …
… this is not a technological discussion, but a strategic one:
A debate about positioning in the sector value chain
A debate about risk and benefit relationships
A debate about business models
… this is not a technological discussion, but a strategic one:
A debate about positioning in the sector value chain
A debate about risk and benefit relationships
A debate about business models
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A first answer to NGN/NGA management approach:
The Net Neutrality principle
Net Neutrality is a concept that undermines industry capacity to invest, innovate and to properly manage
networks and offer adequate services to new customers and new traffics
Net Neutrality is a concept that undermines industry capacity to invest, innovate and to properly manage
networks and offer adequate services to new customers and new traffics
What it does focus on
Citizens rights Freedom to access to all
kind of contents Freedom to access from all
kind of devices Risk of abuse by network
owners
Citizens rights Freedom to access to all
kind of contents Freedom to access from all
kind of devices Risk of abuse by network
owners
What it hides
Network investment needs Relationships between
business risks and business profitability
Network upgrades roadmap Consumers rights Quality of service
Network investment needs Relationships between
business risks and business profitability
Network upgrades roadmap Consumers rights Quality of service
Net neutrality principle is the bet on the dumb pipe approach impeding agents that must invest in the deployments of new
networks to provide a full range of services
Net neutrality principle is the bet on the dumb pipe approach impeding agents that must invest in the deployments of new
networks to provide a full range of services
There is not, and there has never been, a real or potential risk for
none of these issues
There is not, and there has never been, a real or potential risk for
none of these issues
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Traffic in new networks will not only come from traditional uses, but from new uses, much more demanding of quality issues
20
Traditional traffic
Web Surfing
Web Surfing
E-mail / Instant
Messenger
E-mail / Instant
Messenger
Social Network
s
Social Network
s
P2PP2P
New trafficNew traffic
E-healthE-health
E-GovernmentE-Government
E-learningE-learning
New Media and EntertainmentNew Media and Entertainment
New uses require a smarter network traffic management to be able to cope with traffic with different requirements, some of
them very stringent
New uses require a smarter network traffic management to be able to cope with traffic with different requirements, some of
them very stringent
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An alternative answer to NGN/NGA management approach: Fair and Smart network management
Fair and Smart Network management would allow a balanced market development with clear incentives for
both network managers and services providers
Fair and Smart Network management would allow a balanced market development with clear incentives for
both network managers and services providers
TransparencyTransparency
From clear game rules ...
• Transparency in consumer-provider relationship
• Transparency in Network manager-service provider relationship
• Transparency in consumer-provider relationship
• Transparency in Network manager-service provider relationship
… to a comprehensive target
Consumer rights and satisfactio
n
Consumer rights and satisfactio
n
• Clear quality of service commitment
• No hidden cross subsidies among consumers (P2P)
• Wide range of offers
• Clear quality of service commitment
• No hidden cross subsidies among consumers (P2P)
• Wide range of offers
Quality of service management
Services adapted to consumers needs
• Wide range of offers providing citizens with the services they demand and require
• Service innovation not restricted
• Offering for both intensive and low profile users
• Wide range of offers providing citizens with the services they demand and require
• Service innovation not restricted
• Offering for both intensive and low profile users
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01 Role of Telco industry in European competitiveness
02Most relevant trends in Telco industry
03Network deployment challenges
04 Framework for an investment scenario
05 European regulatory framework
Index
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The Telecom Industry rests on top of heavy investments that require a favorable regulation and industrial policy
INVESTMENT &
EUROPEAN TELECOM LEADERSHIP
INVESTMENT &
EUROPEAN TELECOM LEADERSHIP
Platform-based competition model Away from current low price-
oriented regulatory model
Platform-based competition model Away from current low price-
oriented regulatory model
Competition policy allowing consolidation Allowing EU operators to compete
at a global level
Competition policy allowing consolidation Allowing EU operators to compete
at a global level
Necessary elements for an environment promoting investment and European Telecom leadership
REGULATIONREGULATION COMPREHENSIVE TELECOM STRATEGY (industrial policy)
COMPREHENSIVE TELECOM STRATEGY (industrial policy)
De-regulation Allowing market forces to decide
the leading technologies
De-regulation Allowing market forces to decide
the leading technologies
Symmetrical Without positive discrimination
towards new entrants or different service providers
Symmetrical Without positive discrimination
towards new entrants or different service providers
Promoting an European single market
Promoting an European single market
Promoting European innovation
Promoting European innovation
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Regulation must support NGN/NGA deployment through a sustainable model based on platform competition
Market dinamization and extension
Market dinamization and extension
Innovation and new services development
Innovation and new services development
More services adoption
Consumer empowerment
Quality of life improvement
Productivity increase
More services adoption
Consumer empowerment
Quality of life improvement
Productivity increase
New infrastructure deployment
New infrastructure deployment
NGN
NGA:
HSDPA - LTE
VDSL – FTTx
DOCSIS 3.0
WiMAX
NGN
NGA:
HSDPA - LTE
VDSL – FTTx
DOCSIS 3.0
WiMAX
Development of bundled offers
Increased competition
Price reduction
Development of bundled offers
Increased competition
Price reduction
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01 Role of Telco industry in European competitiveness
02Most relevant trends in Telco industry
03Network deployment challenges
04 Framework for an investment scenario
05 European regulatory framework
Index
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… but NGN/NGA deployment is a high risk investment that requires an adequate environment
Europe
High degree of network unbundling
Favours some soil of fibre unbundling/ access
Push competition
Europe
Government-subsidized deployments
Korean government offsets USD 50 billion to subsidy fiber investments
Japanese governments offers subsidy and tax incentives for fiber rollouts
Make broadband accessible for everyone
Push infrastructure
Guarantee financial returns
Favours infrastructure competition
Unbundling was abandoned (2003)
No unbundling of fibre
USA Asia
Goal
Description
Regulation and public policy framework plays a key role creating an investment friendly
environment
Regulation and public policy framework plays a key role creating an investment friendly
environment
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New European Regulatory Framework encompass a political choice between two opposed beliefs in the future of the sector
Competition-driven sectorCompetition-driven sector
Platform competition
Platform competition
Geographic Segmentatio
n
Geographic Segmentatio
n
Regulation-driven sectorRegulation-driven sector
Single Network
Single Network
Service-based
competition
Service-based
competition
• Enables platform competition to develop where technically & economically viable
• Regulation applied in a geographically differentiated way and focused on non-competitive areas
• Allows both service and platform competition to develop
• Enables platform competition to develop where technically & economically viable
• Regulation applied in a geographically differentiated way and focused on non-competitive areas
• Allows both service and platform competition to develop
• Poor regulatory design /neglecting the added value of competing platforms
• Vision based on a single open network and service competition, ignoring alternative technologies and the potential of EU R&D efforts
• Perpetuation of regulation as cornerstone of business models: little faith on the potential of self sustained competition and on the role of competition law
• Poor regulatory design /neglecting the added value of competing platforms
• Vision based on a single open network and service competition, ignoring alternative technologies and the potential of EU R&D efforts
• Perpetuation of regulation as cornerstone of business models: little faith on the potential of self sustained competition and on the role of competition law
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Europe has proposed an Agenda headed in the wrong direction …
Heavily regulated access and deregulation promise postponed
Heavily regulated access and deregulation promise postponed
Service competition and single network model as the basis of Sector model
Service competition and single network model as the basis of Sector model
Low price as the primary goal of regulation Low price as the primary goal of regulation
European Electronic Communications Market Authority as the solution for fostering single telecommunications European market
European Electronic Communications Market Authority as the solution for fostering single telecommunications European market
EECMA EECMA
Functional separation as the most important sector debate for the coming years
Functional separation as the most important sector debate for the coming years
Functional separation
Functional separation
Access regulation
Access regulation
Service Competition
Service Competition
Low PricesLow Prices
Agenda proposed
by Commission
Agenda proposed
by Commission
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29
… and efforts should be devoted to the Agenda Europe really need, setting clear priorities for the rollout of NGN
Promote efficient investment in new generation networks through gradual deregulation, based on geographic segmentation
Promote efficient investment in new generation networks through gradual deregulation, based on geographic segmentation
Promote a new radio spectrum management policy that contributes to the development of new services
Promote a new radio spectrum management policy that contributes to the development of new services
Support European industry in the search for competitiveness and leadership in a global and converging scenario
Support European industry in the search for competitiveness and leadership in a global and converging scenario
Promote a model of effective and sustainable competition, based on competition among platforms
Promote a model of effective and sustainable competition, based on competition among platforms
Platform competition
Platform competition
Promote market growth based on innovation in networks and services
Promote market growth based on innovation in networks and servicesInnovationInnovation
InvestmentInvestment
SpectrumSpectrum
Industrial Policy
Industrial Policy
Agenda Europe needs
Agenda Europe needs
Promote a single telecommunications market that enables growth of European companies
Promote a single telecommunications market that enables growth of European companies
Single European Telecom Market
Single European Telecom Market
Priorities of the framework review
PLATFORM COMPETITIONPLATFORM COMPETITION GEOGRAPHIC SEGMENTATIONGEOGRAPHIC SEGMENTATION
DUCTSDUCTSFUNCTIONAL SEPARATIONFUNCTIONAL SEPARATION
Discarding radical regulatory approaches such as…
Confirming that Europe’s regulatory framework places a decisive, long-term, bet on…
11 22
33 44
…to stimulate the timely roll-out of high-speed broadband networks
Ensuring the regulatory framework incorporates the key principle of…
…that foster regulatory-based business models and perpetuate intervention
...so that regulation is implemented proportionately where it is truly needed
Just by enshrining a few key, forward-looking, regulatory principles in the framework the necessary shift can be obtained:
Exploring the availability of accessing all types of…
…as a means of facilitating the possibilities of rolling-out new
networks
Conclusions
The deployment of NGN/NGAN is:
1. A key element for competitiveness of any economic area in a global world
2. Together with Internet contents and services, it is one of the cornerstones of the new model of economic development
The deployment of NGN/NGAN is:
1. A key element for competitiveness of any economic area in a global world
2. Together with Internet contents and services, it is one of the cornerstones of the new model of economic development
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