European Technology Update - Harris Williams...Sep 14, 2011  · Online ad spending will exceed...

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European Technology Update Member FINRA/SIPC European Technology Update 14 September 2011 Thierry Monjauze Thierry Monjauze Managing Director 63 Brook Street London W1K 4HS United Kingdom Phone: +44 20 7518 8900 [email protected] Francois Morin Director 63 Brook Street www.harriswilliams.com This report has been prepared by Harris Williams & Co. Ltd and approved by Sturgeon Ventures LLP in accordance with Conduct Of Business rules COBS 4 of the FSA Handbook. Harris Williams & Co. Ltd is an authorised representative of Sturgeon Ventures LLP which is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Services Authority. This report is being made by Harris Williams & Co. Ltd. Investment banking services are provided by Harris Williams LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd. Harris Williams & Co. is a trade name under which Harris Williams LLC and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd conduct business in the U.S. and Europe, respectively. 63 Brook Street London W1K 4HS United Kingdom Phone: +44 20 7518 8900 [email protected]

Transcript of European Technology Update - Harris Williams...Sep 14, 2011  · Online ad spending will exceed...

Page 1: European Technology Update - Harris Williams...Sep 14, 2011  · Online ad spending will exceed spending for ads on television by 2016, Forrester Research predicts Video games sales

European Technology Update

Member FINRA/SIPC

European Technology Update14 September 2011

Thierry MonjauzeThierry MonjauzeManaging Director63 Brook StreetLondon W1K 4HSUnited KingdomPhone: +44 20 7518 [email protected]

Francois MorinDirector63 Brook Street

www.harriswilliams.comThis report has been prepared by Harris Williams & Co. Ltd and approved by Sturgeon Ventures LLP in accordance with Conduct Of Business rules COBS 4 of the FSA Handbook.

Harris Williams & Co. Ltd is an authorised representative of Sturgeon Ventures LLP which is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Services Authority. This report is being made by Harris Williams & Co. Ltd. Investment banking services are provided by Harris Williams LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, and Harris

Williams & Co. Ltd. Harris Williams & Co. is a trade name under which Harris Williams LLC and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd conduct business in the U.S. and Europe, respectively.

63 Brook StreetLondon W1K 4HSUnited KingdomPhone: +44 20 7518 [email protected]

Page 2: European Technology Update - Harris Williams...Sep 14, 2011  · Online ad spending will exceed spending for ads on television by 2016, Forrester Research predicts Video games sales

Recent Developments

Hitachi acquired California-based network storage company BlueArc for an estimated $600 millionAXA Private Equity acquired a majority stake in Photonis, a high-tech group specialising in photo sensor technology, in a deal which values the company at €500 millionIBM acquired i2, the UK-based provider of visual investigation analysis software, for an estimated $500 millionIBM acquired Algorithmics, a risk analytics firm for investment and insurance businesses, for $387 million

p

Company Specific

News

IBM acquired Algorithmics, a risk analytics firm for investment and insurance businesses, for $387 millionGoogle acquired the restaurant review company Zagat for an estimated $125 millionImtech acquired Qbranch AB, the Sweden-based company engaged in providing information technology outsourcing services, for €56.8 millionSapientNitro acquired Digital and Direct, a London-based digital marketing agency, for $41 million Quanmax acquired an 80% stake in System Integration & Technology Distribution AG, the listed Austria-based system integration and IT outsourcing services provider, for €24 millionLarge Network Administration, the French IT Services provider and equipment distributor, has been acquired by its UK counterpart SCCTIBCO Software acquired Nimbus Partners, a provider of business process and analysis applicationsTIBCO Software acquired Nimbus Partners, a provider of business process and analysis applicationsHost Europe Group acquired the UK-based web hosting company Heart Internet Skrill acquired Payolution, the risk engine provider for online and offline paymentsAlcatel-Lucent entered into talks to sell its Genesys software business to Permira after a decision against the sale of its entire enterprise businessYahoo’s Board is considering a sale after firing its CEO Carol BartzRussian online retailer OZON.ru raised $100 million in financing from a consortium of investorsEbuzzing, the social media group, raised $25 million from Gimv and other investorsQosmos, a Paris-based provider of network intelligence technology, raised €19.8 million from DFJ Esprit, Fonds Stratégique d’Investissements and Alven Capitalo ds St atég que d vest sse e ts a d ve Cap taIP Commerce, a provider of Platform-as-a-Service functions, has raised $20.7 million from Intel CapitaliZettle, a Swedish provider of mobile payment solutions, raised €10 million from private investorsElectric field sensing solutions provider IDENT Technology raised €7.1 million from new investorsGlobal mobile advertising marketplace Adfonic raised €5.2 million from existing investorsTaptu, the social media and mobile search technology company, raised €2.5 million from DFJ EspritChinese online retailer 360buy.com is planning a US IPO in 2012 to raise up to $5 billionGuidewire Software, a software provider to the insurance industry, has filed for a $100 million US IPOGroupon and Zynga are reportedly set to delay their IPOs due to the volatility of the US capital marketsFacebook’s revenue rose to $1.6 billion with a net income of almost $500 million in the first half of 2011

More than half of US adults and 65% of online adults are now using social networks, according PewJuniper Research and Yankee Group estimate worldwide mobile payments will total $246 billion in 2011Online ad spending will exceed spending for ads on television by 2016, Forrester Research predictsVideo games sales are projected to reach $81 billion worldwide by 2016, up from $66 billion in 2010, according DFC IntelligenceGartner lowered its worldwide growth forecast for PC sales in 2011 from 9.3% to 3.8%, or 352 million unitsUK bil d t 16% t £459 illi d i th fi t t f 2011 di

$ $

Industry Trends

UK mobile data revenues grew 16% year-on-year to £459 million during the first quarter of 2011, according to new research by OfcomThe number of US mobile coupon users will soar by 80% during the next two years, driven by the continuing adoption of smartphones and increasing interest in daily deals sites, according to new research by eMarketerAccording to eMarketer, mobile ad spending is predicted to reach $1 billion in 2011Apple is set to become the biggest smartphone manufacturer with 86.4 million units globally in 2011, overtaking Nokia for the first time, according to estimates by DigiTimes ResearchUS social gaming revenues are expected to exceed $1 billion in 2011, according to eMarketerA third of consumers now view online video-on-demand (VoD) content, while the number of viewers

t hi t diti l b d t TV i d li i di t t b E iwatching traditional broadcast TV is declining, according to a new report by EricssonDigital advertising expenditures will account for 17% of total global ad spend this year, according to GroupMTwitter’s active user numbers have soared 82% this year to 100 million, according to CEO Dick Costolo

Source: Industry news sources. 1

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Public Market Trading Statistics

Stock Performance

Last 30 Days

g

5%

10%

(10%)

(5%)

0%

11 Aug 17 Aug 23 Aug 29 Aug 04 Sep

DJ Stoxx 600 Technology Nasdaq Composite Software and IT Services Communications Internet and Digital Media

1.2%(1.1% )(2.2% )(3.0% )(5.7% )

Last Twelve Months

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

11.8%8.0%1.0%

Comparable Trading

Sources: Capital IQ, 9 September 2011; Brokers’ reports.

CY2011EEBITDA Margin Growth CY2011E CY2012E CY2011E CY2012E CY2011E CY2012E

P / EEV / Revenue EV / EBITDA

(20%)

(10%)

Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Sep 2011

DJ Stoxx 600 Technology Nasdaq Composite Software and IT Services Communications Internet and Digital Media

(3.9% )(15.7% )

Summary Software and IT ServicesEnterprise Applications 18.1% 11.5% 1.3x 1.2x 7.1x 5.9x 15.7x 11.1xEuropean Large Cap Software 31.9% 5.9% 3.6x 3.3x 10.9x 9.4x 17.1x 14.6xFinancial Software 23.4% 3.2% 2.0x 1.8x 8.3x 7.3x 15.7x 13.6xHealthcare Software 20.3% 14.6% 1.9x 1.7x 8.6x 7.3x 19.9x 15.5xLarge Cap IT Services 13.0% 14.7% 0.8x 0.7x 5.6x 5.0x 11.2x 9.7xMid Cap IT Services 11.0% 3.4% 0.6x 0.6x 5.5x 5.2x 8.6x 7.7xOffshore IT Services 23.7% 25.3% 2.9x 2.4x 11.9x 10.0x 17.6x 14.8xSecurity Software 36.7% 9.9% 3.4x 3.1x 8.6x 7.5x 16.1x 14.3x

CommunicationsCommunicationsDigital Broadband 11.2% 3.0% 0.5x 0.5x 4.6x 3.7x 12.8x 8.5xDiversified Communication Equipment 13.2% 9.9% 1.0x 0.9x 8.8x 6.2x 15.0x 12.4xMobile Content / Solutions Providers 16.8% 36.3% 1.3x 1.0x 6.9x 4.6x 15.5x 13.7xMobile Infrastructure Software 14.0% 6.2% 1.9x 1.7x 11.2x 7.6x 22.6x 18.1x

Internet and Digital MediaChinese Internet Leaders 34.5% 42.2% 7.7x 5.6x 13.9x 10.3x 22.1x 16.8xOnline Classifieds 39.4% 27.6% 4.6x 3.9x 11.5x 9.6x 17.9x 18.4xContent Providers / Communities 18.8% 39.0% 4.7x 3.3x 11.3x 8.2x 30.3x 21.3xEcommerce 19.2% 33.6% 3.7x 2.8x 18.0x 13.2x 32.3x 28.5xGlobal Internet Leaders 36 3% 35 5% 6 7 4 9 18 5 13 6 24 2 18 4

2

Global Internet Leaders 36.3% 35.5% 6.7x 4.9x 18.5x 13.6x 24.2x 18.4xInteractive Entertainment 17.0% 35.2% 1.0x 1.0x 7.0x 8.4x 18.4x 17.3xIntermediation and Comparison 25.4% 12.1% 2.1x 2.0x 9.2x 8.0x 21.8x 21.0xOnline Gambling 27.6% 48.7% 1.7x 1.4x 5.5x 4.7x 11.9x 9.4xOnline Marketing 15.1% 18.8% 1.1x 0.9x 6.9x 5.8x 14.8x 13.8xOnline Travel 29.6% 20.1% 3.8x 3.2x 12.0x 9.5x 24.0x 16.4x

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Software and IT Services

15%

Last 30 Days PerformanceEuropean Large Cap Software 5.9%Security Software 2.7%Financial Software 2.6%Healthcare Software 0.9%Large Cap IT Services (3.1% )E t i A li ti (4 1% )

0%

5%

10%

Enterprise Applications (4.1% )Offshore IT Services (4.5% )Mid Cap IT Services (6.6% )

(10%)

(5%)

10 Aug 16 Aug 22 Aug 28 Aug 03 Sep 09 Sep

European Large Cap Software Financial SoftwareEnterprise Applications Healthcare Softwarep ppSecurity Software Large Cap IT ServicesMid Cap IT Services Offshore IT Services

Last Twelve Months Performance

40%

Security Software 8.5%Financial Software 8.0%Healthcare Software 7.6%European Large Cap Software 2.5%Enterprise Applications (2.4% )Off h IT S i (6 2% )

10%

20%

30%Offshore IT Services (6.2% )Large Cap IT Services (8.4% )Mid Cap IT Services (11.2% )

(20%)

(10%)

0%

Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Sep 2011European Large Cap Software Financial SoftwareEnterprise Applications Healthcare Software

Source: Capital IQ, 9 September 2011.3

p ppSecurity Software Large Cap IT ServicesMid Cap IT Services Offshore IT Services

Page 5: European Technology Update - Harris Williams...Sep 14, 2011  · Online ad spending will exceed spending for ads on television by 2016, Forrester Research predicts Video games sales

Software and IT Services(Continued)(Continued)

Market Enterprise CY2011ECap ($m) Value ($m) EBITDA Margin Growth CY2011E CY2012E CY2011E CY2012E CY2011E CY2012E

European Large Cap SoftwareSAP 58,934 58,826 34.6% 14.1% 3.1x 2.8x 8.9x 8.0x 13.8x 12.2xAutonomy 9,719 9,764 46.9% 19.6% 9.4x 8.0x 20.1x 16.1x 32.7x 26.3xDassault Systemes 8,861 7,532 31.1% 12.0% 3.2x 3.0x 10.2x 9.5x 19.1x 17.2x

EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA P / E

(1)

y , ,Sage 5,289 5,405 26.8% 3.6% 2.3x 2.2x 8.5x 8.0x 12.6x 11.7xSoftware AG 3,214 3,431 28.8% 3.9% 2.2x 2.1x 7.6x 6.9x 11.4x 10.2xAveva 1,660 1,417 32.1% 16.8% 4.7x 4.2x 14.7x 12.4x 24.4x 20.7xMisys 1,417 1,567 24.6% (28.9%) 2.4x 2.1x 9.8x 8.1x 17.1x 12.0xTemenos 1,359 1,542 24.8% 14.3% 2.9x 2.7x 11.9x 8.8x 12.8x 11.9xMicro Focus 1,003 1,017 37.6% (2.1%) 2.4x 2.4x 6.4x 6.3x 9.8x 9.5x

Mean 31.9% 5.9% 3.6x 3.3x 10.9x 9.4x 17.1x 14.6xMedian 31.1% 12.0% 2.9x 2.7x 9.8x 8.1x 13.8x 12.0x

Financial SoftwareIntuit 14,057 13,635 37.0% 13.1% 3.4x 3.1x 9.2x 8.5x 17.3x 15.5xMisys 1,417 1,567 24.6% (28.9%) 2.4x 2.1x 9.8x 8.1x 17.1x 12.0xy , , ( )Temenos 1,359 1,542 24.8% 14.3% 2.9x 2.7x 11.9x 8.8x 12.8x 11.9xFidessa 905 818 20.5% 7.0% 1.8x 1.6x 8.8x 8.2x 20.2x 18.3xSimCorp 670 623 24.5% 7.4% 2.3x 2.1x 9.3x 8.4x 15.5x 13.4xInnovation 332 290 12.6% 8.4% 1.0x 1.0x 8.1x 7.2x 21.2x 19.0xMicrogen 201 161 26.1% 15.2% 2.7x 2.5x 10.2x 9.7x 19.1x 17.8xORC 180 145 24.0% (3.1%) 1.0x 0.9x 4.1x 3.5x 12.5x 9.3xLinedata 129 125 20.8% (1.9%) 0.7x 0.6x 3.2x 2.9x 7.6x 6.7xStatPro 82 90 19.4% 0.7% 1.7x 1.6x 8.8x 7.9x 14.2x 12.5x

Mean 23.4% 3.2% 2.0x 1.8x 8.3x 7.3x 15.7x 13.6xMedian 24.3% 7.2% 2.1x 1.9x 9.0x 8.2x 16.3x 12.9x

Enterprise Applicationsp ppSDL 773 688 18.9% 12.5% 1.9x 1.8x 10.1x 9.2x 16.7x 15.1xUnit 4 672 836 20.4% 9.1% 1.3x 1.3x 6.5x 5.9x 16.6x 13.4xExact 583 523 23.9% (2.5%) 1.7x 1.7x 7.2x 6.7x 12.5x 11.6xKofax 434 337 11.2% 57.5% 0.7x 0.4x 6.5x 5.6x 4.5x 2.5xF-Secure 431 399 19.0% 10.6% 2.0x 1.8x 10.7x 8.5x 18.3x 14.2xIFS 389 341 15.6% (0.0%) 0.8x 0.8x 5.4x 4.8x 13.4x 11.4xCegid 192 292 24.5% 3.9% 0.8x 0.8x 3.4x 3.2x 7.1x 6.5xKewill 127 100 18.8% 5.2% 1.0x 1.0x 5.4x 5.0x 11.5x 10.4xAlterian 73 62 11.1% 7.1% 1.0x 0.9x 9.0x 4.6x 40.8x 14.6x

Mean 18.1% 11.5% 1.3x 1.2x 7.1x 5.9x 15.7x 11.1xMedian 18.9% 7.1% 1.0x 1.0x 6.5x 5.6x 13.4x 11.6x

Healthcare SoftwareMcKesson 18,246 19,119 2.4% 7.7% 0.2x 0.2x 6.9x 5.7x 13.3x 11.2xCerner 10,718 10,151 31.9% 14.2% 4.8x 4.2x 15.1x 12.7x 34.7x 28.7xAllscripts Healthcare Solutions 3,212 3,521 25.4% 14.5% 2.4x 2.2x 9.6x 8.2x 19.1x 16.0xCompuGroup 559 890 19.2% 24.9% 1.6x 1.4x 8.5x 6.6x 14.2x 9.8xCegedim 471 1,116 17.4% 1.4% 0.9x 0.8x 5.0x 4.7x 6.3x 5.4xAdvanced Computer Software 205 254 25.3% 24.8% 1.6x 1.6x 6.4x 6.1x 32.1x 21.5x

Mean 20.3% 14.6% 1.9x 1.7x 8.6x 7.3x 19.9x 15.5xMedian 22.2% 14.3% 1.6x 1.5x 7.7x 6.3x 16.7x 13.6x

4Sources: Capital IQ, 9 September 2011; Brokers’ reports.

(1) Autonomy share price affected by takeover announcement on 18 August 2011

Page 6: European Technology Update - Harris Williams...Sep 14, 2011  · Online ad spending will exceed spending for ads on television by 2016, Forrester Research predicts Video games sales

Software and IT Services(Continued)(Continued)

Market Enterprise CY2011ECap ($m) Value ($m) EBITDA Margin Growth CY2011E CY2012E CY2011E CY2012E CY2011E CY2012E

Security SoftwareSymantec 11,893 11,675 34.1% 11.5% 1.7x 1.7x 5.1x 4.6x 10.1x 9.1xCheck Point 10,759 9,609 59.5% 14.6% 7.7x 7.0x 13.0x 11.8x 18.4x 16.6xTrend Micro 3,928 2,453 34.0% 3.1% 1.9x 1.9x 5.7x 5.2x 17.6x 17.3x

EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA P / E

, , % %F-Secure 431 399 19.0% 10.6% 2.0x 1.8x 10.7x 8.5x 18.3x 14.2x

Mean 36.7% 9.9% 3.4x 3.1x 8.6x 7.5x 16.1x 14.3xMedian 34.1% 11.0% 2.0x 1.8x 8.2x 6.8x 17.9x 15.4x

Large Cap IT ServicesAccenture 32,105 27,311 15.7% 18.8% 1.0x 1.0x 6.7x 6.1x 14.3x 12.8xCapita Group 6,951 8,902 17.1% 7.3% 1.9x 1.7x 11.0x 10.1x 14.9x 13.5xCap Gemini 5,077 4,814 9.2% 12.0% 0.4x 0.3x 4.0x 3.6x 9.7x 8.4xComputer Sciences 4,284 5,524 12.7% (0.0%) 0.3x 0.3x 2.7x 2.3x 6.9x 5.8xAtos Origin 3,048 3,174 10.0% 35.5% 0.3x 0.3x 3.4x 2.6x 10.1x 7.9x

Mean 13.0% 14.7% 0.8x 0.7x 5.6x 5.0x 11.2x 9.7xM di 12 7% 12 0% 0 4 0 3 4 0 3 6 10 1 8 4Median 12.7% 12.0% 0.4x 0.3x 4.0x 3.6x 10.1x 8.4x

Mid Cap IT ServicesCGI 4,699 5,626 18.6% 9.8% 1.3x 1.2x 6.9x 6.5x 11.3x 10.2xIndra Sistemas 2,650 3,146 12.1% 2.5% 0.9x 0.8x 7.2x 6.8x 9.9x 9.5xLogica 2,149 2,833 8.5% 6.6% 0.5x 0.4x 5.3x 4.9x 6.9x 6.2xTieto 958 1,156 10.3% 6.7% 0.5x 0.5x 4.5x 4.2x 11.5x 8.6xSopra 729 894 11.0% (5.5%) 0.6x 0.6x 5.5x 5.5x 7.6x 7.9xGroupe Steria 525 801 9.0% (0.9%) 0.4x 0.3x 3.9x 3.6x 6.0x 5.3xGFI Informatique 215 372 7.7% 4.4% 0.4x 0.4x 5.1x 4.8x 6.9x 6.4x

Mean 11.0% 3.4% 0.6x 0.6x 5.5x 5.2x 8.6x 7.7xMedian 10.3% 4.4% 0.5x 0.5x 5.3x 4.9x 7.6x 7.9x

Offshore IT ServicesTata 42,680 41,485 29.2% 27.7% 4.3x 3.6x 14.9x 12.4x 19.4x 17.0xInfosys 27,853 24,193 30.8% 20.6% 3.7x 3.1x 11.9x 10.4x 17.5x 14.5xCognizant 18,459 16,190 20.6% 32.9% 2.7x 2.2x 12.9x 10.6x 21.7x 18.1xWipro 17,697 16,469 20.3% 15.8% 2.2x 2.0x 10.9x 9.4x 14.9x 12.5xHCL 5,983 5,958 17.3% 29.4% 1.6x 1.3x 9.0x 7.4x 14.3x 12.0xSatyam 1,762 1,046 13.3% 13.6% 0.8x 0.7x 6.3x 4.9x 10.9x 9.9x

Mean 21.9% 23.3% 2.5x 2.1x 11.0x 9.2x 16.5x 14.0xMedian 20.5% 24.1% 2.4x 2.1x 11.4x 9.9x 16.2x 13.5x

5Sources: Capital IQ, 9 September 2011; Brokers’ reports.

Page 7: European Technology Update - Harris Williams...Sep 14, 2011  · Online ad spending will exceed spending for ads on television by 2016, Forrester Research predicts Video games sales

Communications

Last 30 Days Performance

15%

Diversified Communication Equipment 3.6%Mobile Infrastructure Software 0.4%Digital Broadband 0.4%Mobile Content / Solutions Providers (8.7% )

0%

5%

10%

(10%)

(5%)

10 Aug 16 Aug 22 Aug 28 Aug 03 Sep 09 Sep

Digital Broadband Diversified Communication Equipment

60%

Last Twelve Months Performance

Mobile Content / Solutions Providers (8.5% )Mobile Infrastructure Software (10.4% )Di ifi d C i i E i (12 0% )

Digital Broadband Diversified Communication Equipment

Mobile Infrastructure Software Mobile Content / Solutions Providers

10%

20%

30%

40%

50% Diversified Communication Equipment (12.0% )Digital Broadband (29.0% )

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Sep 2011

Digital Broadband Diversified Communication Equipment

Mobile Infrastructure Software Mobile Content / Solutions Providers

6Source: Capital IQ, 9 September 2011.

Page 8: European Technology Update - Harris Williams...Sep 14, 2011  · Online ad spending will exceed spending for ads on television by 2016, Forrester Research predicts Video games sales

Communications(C ti d)(Continued)

Market Enterprise CY2011ECap ($m) Value ($m) EBITDA Margin Growth CY2011E CY2012E CY2011E CY2012E CY2011E CY2012E

Digital BroadbandLogitech 1,726 1,272 6.7% 4.6% 0.5x 0.5x 7.9x 4.9x 22.9x 14.4xTomTom 889 1,382 15.9% (15.6%) 0.8x 0.8x 5.0x 5.1x 7.6x 7.5xTechnicolor 664 1 979 13 7% 5 4% 0 4x 0 4x 3 0x 2 7x NA NA

EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA P / E

Technicolor 664 1,979 13.7% 5.4% 0.4x 0.4x 3.0x 2.7x NA NAKudelski 499 760 11.3% (17.6%) 0.7x 0.7x 6.5x 5.5x 17.7x 10.5xPace 489 779 8.6% 22.2% 0.3x 0.3x 3.6x 3.1x 4.9x 3.9xParrot 335 201 15.3% 7.6% 0.6x 0.5x 3.7x 3.2x 11.0x 9.8xAdvanced Digital Broadcast 72 68 7.3% 14.1% 0.2x 0.1x 2.2x 1.6x NM 4.9x

Mean 11.2% 3.0% 0.5x 0.5x 4.6x 3.7x 12.8x 8.5xMedian 11.3% 5.4% 0.5x 0.5x 3.7x 3.2x 11.0x 8.6x

Diversified Communication EquipmentLM Ericsson Telephone 33,497 26,342 15.4% 12.9% 0.8x 0.7x 4.9x 4.5x 13.0x 10.9xNokia 22,315 18,737 5.2% (8.6%) 0.4x 0.4x 6.9x 5.3x 23.3x 17.4xAlcatel-Lucent 7,184 8,590 9.1% 4.6% 0.4x 0.4x 4.2x 3.7x 10.5x 7.9xADTRAN 1 865 1 749 30 3% 21 6% 2 4x 2 2x 8 0x 7 3x 13 1x 12 1xADTRAN 1,865 1,749 30.3% 21.6% 2.4x 2.2x 8.0x 7.3x 13.1x 12.1xCIENA 1,216 2,172 6.1% 19.1% 1.2x 1.1x 20.2x 10.4x NM 13.9x

Mean 13.2% 9.9% 1.0x 0.9x 8.8x 6.2x 15.0x 12.4xMedian 9.1% 12.9% 0.8x 0.7x 6.9x 5.3x 13.1x 12.1x

Mobile Infrastructure SoftwareQUALCOMM 84,529 75,108 44.0% 36.9% 4.8x 4.2x 10.8x 9.9x 15.6x 13.9xAmdocs 4,865 3,731 20.6% 6.2% 1.2x 1.1x 5.6x 5.7x 11.8x 10.6xVeriSign 4,831 4,021 53.2% 3.9% 5.2x 4.6x 9.8x 8.6x 19.9x 16.0xComverse Technology 1,429 1,568 13.4% 5.4% 1.0x 1.0x 7.4x 7.1x 15.3x 11.3xSynchronoss Technologies 944 787 27.0% 36.1% 3.5x 2.9x 12.8x 10.2x 29.0x 23.6xSonus Networks 629 311 3.7% 12.8% 1.2x 1.1x 31.9x 11.7x NM 29.2xTekelec 425 162 13 9% (7 0%) 0 4x 0 4x 3 0x 2 8x 22 1x 15 7xTekelec 425 162 13.9% (7.0%) 0.4x 0.4x 3.0x 2.8x 22.1x 15.7xTeleCommunication Systems 199 287 13.9% 8.8% 0.7x 0.6x 4.8x 4.0x 24.9x 15.9xOpenwave Systems 158 76 (10.3%) (13.8%) 0.5x 0.5x NM 8.7x NM 31.4xRedknee Solutions 73 69 7.6% 24.0% 1.1x 1.0x 14.2x 7.5x 42.2x 13.2xSmith Micro Software 62 NM (32.8%) (45.3%) NA NA NA NA NM NM

Mean 14.0% 6.2% 1.9x 1.7x 11.2x 7.6x 22.6x 18.1xMedian 13.9% 6.2% 1.1x 1.0x 9.8x 8.0x 21.0x 15.8x

Mobile Content / Solutions ProvidersOpera Software 557 475 24.9% 29.2% 2.9x 2.3x 11.8x 7.8x 22.2x 13.9xGameLoft 393 355 21.6% 15.1% 1.6x 1.4x 7.4x 6.4x 19.9x 16.0xBuongiorno 132 190 11.5% 27.2% 0.4x 0.4x 3.8x 3.0x 11.8x 7.4xDanal 111 87 17 7% 23 0% 0 8x 0 6x 4 3x 3 3x 15 0x 11 0xDanal 111 87 17.7% 23.0% 0.8x 0.6x 4.3x 3.3x 15.0x 11.0xDada 46 80 11.3% (34.8%) 0.6x 0.5x 5.0x 4.2x NM 31.4xSynchronica 34 36 13.9% 158.4% 1.3x 0.9x 9.3x 3.0x 8.6x 2.8x

Mean 16.8% 36.3% 1.3x 1.0x 6.9x 4.6x 15.5x 13.7xMedian 15.8% 25.1% 1.0x 0.7x 6.2x 3.7x 15.0x 12.4x

7Sources: Capital IQ, 9 September 2011; Brokers’ reports.

Page 9: European Technology Update - Harris Williams...Sep 14, 2011  · Online ad spending will exceed spending for ads on television by 2016, Forrester Research predicts Video games sales

Internet and Digital Media

Last 30 Days Performance

g

20%

Intermediation and Comparison 12.2%Interactive Entertainment 3.3%Chinese Internet Leaders 2.8%Online Gambling 1.6%Global Internet Leaders 1.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Content Providers / Communities 0.3%Online Classifieds (3.9% )Ecommerce (4.3% )Online Travel (5.6% )Online Marketing (9.6% )

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

09 Aug 15 Aug 21 Aug 27 Aug 02 Sep 08 SepGlobal Internet Leaders EcommerceOnline Travel Online Marketing

70%

Last Twelve Months Performance

Content Providers / Communities Intermediation and ComparisonOnline Classifieds Chinese Internet LeadersOnline Gambling Interactive Entertainment

Intermediation and Comparison 31.3%Chinese Internet Leaders 28.8%Global Internet Leaders 21.2%Online Classifieds 20.5%Ecommerce 16.7%

10%

30%

50%

70% Online Marketing 9.3%Online Travel 9.2%Content Providers / Communities 2.3%Interactive Entertainment (13.3% )Online Gambling (37.7% )

(50%)

(30%)

(10%)

Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Sep 2011Global Internet Leaders EcommerceOnline Travel Online MarketingContent Providers / Communities Intermediation and ComparisonOnline Classifieds Chinese Internet LeadersOnline Gambling Interactive Entertainment

8Source: Capital IQ, 9 September 2011.

Page 10: European Technology Update - Harris Williams...Sep 14, 2011  · Online ad spending will exceed spending for ads on television by 2016, Forrester Research predicts Video games sales

Internet and Digital Media(Continued)(Continued)

Market Enterprise CY2011ECap ($m) Value ($m) EBITDA Margin Growth CY2011E CY2012E CY2011E CY2012E CY2011E CY2012E

Global Internet LeadersApple 349,958 321,563 32.8% 59.0% 2.7x 2.3x 8.3x 7.3x 12.6x 11.2xMicrosoft 215,657 177,424 42.6% 9.6% 2.5x 2.3x 5.8x 5.2x 9.1x 8.4xGoogle 169,468 136,487 41.7% 30.2% 3.6x 3.0x 8.7x 7.2x 14.8x 12.5xAmazon 95,957 89,602 5.2% 43.1% 1.8x 1.4x 35.1x 25.3x NM NM

EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA P / E

Baidu 50,118 48,571 58.2% 83.9% 22.6x 14.7x 38.9x 25.4x 49.9x 33.0xeBay 36,678 34,827 32.7% 26.3% 3.0x 2.6x 9.2x 7.8x 14.2x 12.2xYahoo! 18,283 15,809 32.0% 0.3% 3.4x 3.3x 10.8x 9.3x 19.1x 17.2xYandex 9,667 8,998 45.1% 31.4% 14.0x 9.8x 31.1x 20.9x 49.9x 34.0x

Mean 36.3% 35.5% 6.7x 4.9x 18.5x 13.6x 24.2x 18.4xMedian 37.2% 30.8% 3.2x 2.8x 10.0x 8.6x 14.8x 12.5x

EcommerceAmazon 95,957 89,602 5.2% 43.1% 1.8x 1.4x 35.1x 25.3x NM NMeBay 36,678 34,827 32.7% 26.3% 3.0x 2.6x 9.2x 7.8x 14.2x 12.2xNetflix 10,716 10,575 15.9% 52.0% 3.2x 2.3x 20.3x 15.0x 43.2x 29.8xMail.ru 7,331 7,192 48.6% 62.1% 14.7x 11.3x 30.2x 22.6x 43.1x 30.8xIAC 3,332 2,573 18.1% 19.0% 1.3x 1.2x 7.3x 6.1x 19.5x 16.4xMercadolibre 2,903 2,786 34.8% 38.0% 9.4x 7.3x 27.2x 20.0x 42.2x 30.2xAsos 2,134 2,126 9.8% 52.8% 2.9x 2.0x 29.1x 20.6x NM 35.3xShutterfly 1,748 1,672 19.5% 63.3% 3.5x 2.7x 17.7x 12.1x NM 35.4xOpenTable 1,308 1,239 40.3% 45.3% 8.6x 6.7x 21.5x 15.2x 44.4x 32.1xVistaprint 1,134 897 16.1% 24.6% 1.0x 0.8x 6.2x 5.7x 14.7x 12.5xOcado 956 956 5.8% 21.1% 1.0x 0.8x 16.5x 11.0x NM 43.2xDigital River 785 430 21.1% 8.5% 1.1x 1.0x 5.2x 4.1x 18.0x 14.2xYOOX 731 725 9.9% 33.5% 1.9x 1.4x 18.9x 13.7x 48.2x 35.4xBlue Nile 499 425 9.0% 8.6% 1.2x 1.1x 13.2x 12.0x 35.9x 31.4xOverstock 226 188 1.3% 5.2% 0.2x 0.1x 12.6x 6.8x NM 40.5x

Mean 19.2% 33.6% 3.7x 2.8x 18.0x 13.2x 32.3x 28.5xMedian 16.1% 33.5% 1.9x 1.4x 17.7x 12.1x 39.0x 31.1x

Online TravelPriceline 25,918 24,611 33.5% 39.9% 5.7x 4.5x 17.0x 12.9x 23.1x 17.5xExpedia 7,989 7,477 26.1% 18.0% 1.9x 1.7x 7.3x 6.6x 15.0x 13.3xCtrip 5,521 4,933 39.9% 28.7% 8.9x 7.1x 22.4x 17.6x 26.5x 21.3xWotif 900 761 56.4% 3.4% 5.1x 4.7x 9.0x 8.2x 16.1x 14.5xTravelzoo 531 491 26.4% 35.8% 3.2x 2.7x 12.1x 9.3x 22.9x 17.7xOrbitz 249 576 16.0% 1.4% 0.8x 0.7x 4.7x 4.2x 38.1x 18.4xhotel.de 72 60 8.9% 13.8% 1.0x 0.9x 11.7x 7.8x 26.1x 11.8x

Mean 29.6% 20.1% 3.8x 3.2x 12.0x 9.5x 24.0x 16.4xMedian 26.4% 18.0% 3.2x 2.7x 11.7x 8.2x 23.1x 17.5x

Online MarketingValueClick 1,178 1,036 29.8% 27.1% 1.9x 1.6x 6.4x 5.4x 16.1x 13.5xConstant Contact 489 369 16.4% 23.3% 1.7x 1.4x 10.5x 7.6x 25.8x 18.1xInfoSpace 347 83 14.1% (5.3%) 0.4x 0.4x 2.6x 2.7x 17.5x 21.1xMarchex 311 283 15.7% 53.5% 1.9x 1.6x 12.1x 9.9x NM NMLBI 252 254 17.6% 19.6% 0.9x 0.9x 5.3x 5.2x 7.3x 7.6xTradeDoubler 158 125 4.9% 2.8% 0.3x 0.3x 5.7x 5.0x 11.1x 9.7x1000mercis 158 129 39.7% 26.7% 2.3x 2.0x 5.8x 5.1x 10.7x 9.3xHi-Media 153 184 9.2% 9.7% 0.5x 0.5x 5.9x 5.1x 10.3x 8.2xSedo 112 83 6.3% 12.7% 0.5x 0.4x 7.5x 6.5x 20.0x 14.6xd di 37 25 (2 3%) 18 2% 0 3 0 3 NM 5 2 NM 21 8ad pepper media 37 25 (2.3%) 18.2% 0.3x 0.3x NM 5.2x NM 21.8x

Mean 15.1% 18.8% 1.1x 0.9x 6.9x 5.8x 14.8x 13.8xMedian 14.9% 18.9% 0.7x 0.7x 5.9x 5.2x 13.6x 13.5x

Content Providers / CommunitiesLinkedIn 7,964 7,592 13.4% 111.4% 14.8x 10.0x NM NM NM NMWebMD Health 1,939 1,591 34.2% 10.3% 2.7x 2.5x 7.9x 6.9x 25.0x 23.0xPandora Media 1,674 1,579 2.0% 149.5% 11.5x 6.1x NM NM NM NMPerform Group 711 613 15.4% 51.6% 3.8x 3.0x 24.6x 12.1x 44.3x 21.3xMixi 660 531 26.4% (5.0%) 2.7x 2.2x 10.2x 8.7x 43.4x 23.6xDemand Media 628 524 26.5% 26.9% 1.6x 1.3x 6.2x 4.4x 31.0x 19.2xMeetic 443 397 21.5% 1.4% 1.5x 1.5x 7.2x 6.7x 12.6x 11.5x

9Sources: Capital IQ, 9 September 2011; Brokers’ reports.

XING 359 271 31.4% 23.7% 3.0x 2.6x 9.5x 7.8x 32.5x 20.5xXO Group 265 170 12.2% 10.4% 1.4x 1.2x 11.3x 8.1x NM 33.5xMove 253 212 12.9% (2.5%) 1.1x 1.0x 8.5x 7.2x 23.9x 15.9x

Mean 19.6% 37.8% 4.4x 3.1x 10.7x 7.8x 30.4x 21.1xMedian 18.4% 17.1% 2.7x 2.3x 9.0x 7.5x 31.0x 20.9x

Page 11: European Technology Update - Harris Williams...Sep 14, 2011  · Online ad spending will exceed spending for ads on television by 2016, Forrester Research predicts Video games sales

Internet and Digital Media(Continued)(Continued)

Market Enterprise CY2011ECap ($m) Value ($m) EBITDA Margin Growth CY2011E CY2012E CY2011E CY2012E CY2011E CY2012E

Intermediation and ComparisonMoneysupermarket 887 836 27.2% 20.4% 3.0x 2.8x 10.9x 9.7x 18.4x 16.1xLiquidity Services 866 761 15.2% 17.8% 2.2x 2.0x 14.6x 12.3x 26.8x 29.3xeHealth 266 130 15.9% (3.7%) 0.9x 0.9x 5.5x 5.3x 32.2x 30.7xGruppo MutuiOnline 207 192 43.0% 13.9% 2.5x 2.2x 5.8x 4.8x 9.7x 8.1x

EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA P / E

Mean 25.4% 12.1% 2.1x 2.0x 9.2x 8.0x 21.8x 21.0xMedian 21.6% 15.8% 2.4x 2.1x 8.3x 7.5x 22.6x 22.7x

Online ClassifiedsRightmove 2,066 2,037 68.7% 15.4% 13.3x 11.6x 19.3x 16.6x 27.2x 22.8xSEEK 1,831 2,144 42.7% 22.1% 5.4x 4.7x 12.6x 10.6x 15.1x 12.5x51job 1,465 1,182 41.0% 25.5% 5.7x 4.6x 14.0x 12.2x 24.3x 19.2xSouFun 1,368 1,200 45.9% 59.8% 3.7x 3.0x 8.0x 6.6x 13.0x 10.1xCarsales.au 1,172 1,138 54.6% 20.4% 6.6x 5.9x 12.1x 10.7x 18.3x 16.0xMonster 972 895 18.3% 14.4% 0.8x 0.7x 4.5x 3.4x 18.5x 10.4xLoopNet 705 596 31.8% 10.6% 6.9x 6.1x 21.8x 17.6x NM 47.2xDice 604 554 41.7% 40.7% 3.1x 2.6x 7.4x 6.0x 18.3x 13.5x

Mean 39.4% 27.6% 4.6x 3.9x 11.5x 9.6x 17.9x 18.4xMedian 41.7% 22.1% 5.4x 4.6x 12.1x 10.6x 18.3x 13.5x

Chinese Internet LeadersBaidu 50,118 48,571 58.2% 83.9% 22.6x 14.7x 38.9x 25.4x 49.9x 33.0xTencent 43,143 41,170 50.5% 41.4% 9.5x 7.3x 18.9x 14.3x 25.3x 19.7xSina 6,894 6,072 12.6% 19.8% 12.8x 10.1x NM NM NM NMNetease 6,259 4,516 49.3% 35.7% 4.1x 3.5x 8.4x 7.1x 13.1x 11.7xAlibaba 5,326 3,904 33.5% 19.9% 3.8x 3.2x 11.2x 9.6x 17.5x 14.8xFocus Media 3,960 3,369 38.7% 30.8% 4.7x 4.0x 12.2x 9.9x 19.0x 15.4xSohu 2,879 2,339 38.0% 37.6% 2.8x 2.3x 7.4x 5.6x 15.4x 12.5xRenren 2,709 1,481 2.6% 59.9% 12.1x 7.6x NM NM NM NM, ,Shanda Interactive 1,882 1,055 15.4% 33.2% 1.0x 0.8x 6.2x 4.2x 23.5x 16.9xSouFun 1,368 1,200 45.9% 59.8% 3.7x 3.0x 8.0x 6.6x 13.0x 10.1xDangdang 553 299 1.1% 50.9% 0.6x 0.4x NM 15.0x NM 46.8xJiayuan 354 264 24.9% 96.0% 5.1x 3.6x 20.6x 12.4x 43.6x 21.3xTaomee 280 160 38.4% 34.2% 3.3x 2.5x 8.7x 6.0x 13.6x 13.1x

Mean 31.5% 46.4% 6.6x 4.8x 14.1x 10.6x 23.4x 19.6xMedian 38.0% 37.6% 4.1x 3.5x 9.9x 9.6x 18.3x 15.4x

Online Gamblingbwin.party digital entertainment 1,571 1,147 22.0% 131.7% 1.0x 0.9x 4.5x 3.8x 9.5x 7.5xBetfair 1,161 921 20.2% 16.0% 1.5x 1.4x 7.3x 5.8x 21.0x 14.7xPlaytech 1 106 1 014 56 1% 33 5% 3 8x 3 0x 6 8x 6 0x 8 8x 7 8xPlaytech 1,106 1,014 56.1% 33.5% 3.8x 3.0x 6.8x 6.0x 8.8x 7.8x888 184 124 12.1% 13.8% 0.4x 0.4x 3.5x 3.2x 8.4x 7.5x

Mean 27.6% 48.7% 1.7x 1.4x 5.5x 4.7x 11.9x 9.4xMedian 21.1% 24.7% 1.2x 1.1x 5.7x 4.8x 9.1x 7.7x

Interactive EntertainmentActivision 13,051 10,107 34.8% (10.6%) 2.5x 2.2x 7.1x 6.2x 14.5x 12.2xElectronic Arts 7,141 5,293 12.7% 10.3% 1.3x 1.3x 10.3x 7.6x 28.1x 19.4xTake-Two Interactive Software 1,166 1,026 9.6% (4.6%) 0.9x 1.0x 9.6x 15.9x 16.7x NMUbisoft Entertainment 531 356 24.7% 23.2% 0.2x 0.2x 1.0x 0.6x 14.3x 8.1xTHQ 119 100 (0.7%) 23.2% 0.1x 0.1x NM 11.7x NM 29.7x

Mean 17.0% 35.2% 1.0x 1.0x 7.0x 8.4x 18.4x 17.3xMedian 16.7% 16.7% 0.9x 1.0x 8.4x 7.6x 15.6x 15.8x

10Sources: Capital IQ, 9 September 2011; Brokers’ reports.

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