European Spatial Planning: Adapting to Climate Events

OUTLINE STRATEGIC VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

OUTLINE STRATEGIC VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS (illustrated as part of a National Spatial Planning Flow Diagram with an emphasis on Water Management) Before the plan process beginsTo achieve truly sustainable development, make climate change adaptation a core activity in spatial planningCC adds an extra dimension to planning - it can challenge basic assumptions on availability of land (change the shape of the country) and its uses over medium and long term. Adopt 2 main approaches :- Change & Risk ManagementPrepare to review national planning laws, policies, codes etc to ensure climate risks are considered over whole of the decision lifetime

At the start of the Plan making processCarry out high level national vulnerability analysis and if necessary develop national view of where fundamental change is needed. (Need to do a VA first to inform development of national spatial plan)Eg National Flood risk Assessment (although scope will need to be widened)

National Vulnerability AnalysisWill CC affect basic assumptions of your plan because it is such a fundamental issue? Do reality check for worst-case CC effects - Could there be limits to adaptation?NoYesEg NW little low lying land - low vulnerability to water shortageEg E Anglia low lying land - vulnerability to water shortageProceed to step xEg Case Study TE2100 Thames Estuary limit is x metres sea level rise.Identify Critical adaptation thresholds eg what responses to coastal flood risk management will cease to be effective given x metres sea level rise

Identify preferred approach to critical end game issues (i.e. Doing the big thinking.)Eg East Anglia - is it strategic national food resource? can it be defended given x metres sea level rise?Eg Identify preferred areas for migration in long term bear in mind migration from EC as result of CC (nomadic planning)Feed results into national spatial plan making or develop national outline adaptive plan? National Vulnerability Analysis continued down Yes branch

Plan MakingPlan Strategy that can adapt to different futures if indicated by vulnerability. (i.e. decision pipelines approach to managing uncertainty)Eg Case Study TE2100High level options relate to differing rates of change of CCSet objectives for plan to include CC adaptationImplementation would be delegated to regions through Regional Spatial StrategiesTested through SEA

TE2100 CASE STUDY Project has established the effectiveness of different responses- over time - related to thresholds of risk eg sea level rise- in different parts of the estuary- in different combinations (portfolios)

Thresholds

Thresholds

Thresholds

Time200620502100Managing Flood Risk through the centuryRisk

1m0m4m3m2mMax water level rise:Existing systemNew barrier, retain Thames Barrier, raise defencesRaise DefencesImprove Thames Barrier and raise d/s defences Note:Each box represents one or more portfolios of responsesThe arrows indicate paths for adapting options for different sea level ranges Flood storage, over rotate Thames Barrier, raise d/s defencesNew barrier, raise defencesFlood storage, raise d/s defencesNew barrageOver-rotate Thames Barrier and raise d/s defencesRoute 1Route 3aRoute 3bRoute 4Route 2Flood storage, improve Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences

1m0m4m3m2mMax water level rise: New barrier, retain Thames Barrier, raise defencesRaise DefencesNew barrier, raise defencesNew barrage20502100Medium High Climate Change ScenarioFlood storage, improve Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defencesRoute 1Route 3aRoute 3bRoute 4Route 2All four Routes suitable in 2100Existing systemImprove Thames Barrier and raise d/s defences Over-rotate Thames Barrier and raise d/s defencesFlood storage, over rotate Thames Barrier, raise d/s defencesFlood storage, raise d/s defencesNote:Each box represents one or more portfolios of responsesThe arrows indicate paths for adapting options for different sea level ranges

1m0m4m3m2mMax water level rise:New barrier, retain Thames Barrier, raise defencesRaise DefencesNew barrier, raise defencesNew barrage20502100Medium High Climate Change ScenarioRoute 1Route 3aRoute 3bRoute 4Route 2All four Routes suitable in 2100Alternative Routes for achieving the planExisting systemImprove Thames Barrier and raise d/s defences Over-rotate Thames Barrier and raise d/s defencesFlood storage, improve Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defencesFlood storage, over rotate Thames Barrier, raise d/s defencesFlood storage, raise d/s defencesNote:Each box represents one or more portfolios of responsesThe arrows indicate paths for adapting options for different sea level ranges

1m0m4m3m2mMax water level rise:New barrier, retain Thames Barrier, raise defencesRaise DefencesNew barrier, raise defencesNew barrageRoute 1Route 3aRoute 3bRoute 4Route 2High++ Climate Change ScenarioOnly Route 4 suitable in 2100 (unless SoP reduced)21002050Existing systemImprove Thames Barrier and raise d/s defences Over-rotate Thames Barrier and restore interim defencesFlood storage, improve Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defencesFlood storage, over rotate Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defencesFlood storage, restore interim defencesNote:Each box represents one or more portfolios of responsesThe arrows indicate paths for adapting options for different sea level ranges

1m0m4m3m2mMax water level rise:New barrier, retain Thames Barrier, raise defencesRaise DefencesNew barrier, raise defencesNew barrageRoute 1Route 3aRoute 3bRoute 4Route 2High++ Climate Change ScenarioOnly route 4 suitable in 2100 (unless SoP reduced)21002050The final plan could be a combination of optionsExisting systemImprove Thames Barrier and raise d/s defences Over-rotate Thames Barrier and restore interim defencesFlood storage, improve Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defencesFlood storage, over rotate Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defencesFlood storage, restore interim defencesNote:Each box represents one or more portfolios of responsesThe arrows indicate paths for adapting options for different sea level ranges

This is a high level illustration of how you might embed a vulnerability analysis into spatial planning.This illustration takes some of the ESPACE recommendations and shows how they might be followed in an outline national planning flow diagram

It emphasises that climate change could challenge basic assumptions for long term strategic planning..At the start of the process a vulnerability analysis will ensure that the big picture issues are identified..

The vulnerability analysis will identify the areas where climate change may affect fundamental assumptions.It will be advisable to identify, critical thresholds beyond which adaptation measures will have to change or current land usage becomes impracticable.These major issues need playing through to see how climate change could affect current assumptions and what the preferred big picture response might be.The plan must have objectives for adaptation. To be successful this should include the need for robustness and resilience to future change.

The vulnerability analysis should provide information if possible when critical thresholds could be reached. These can be identified independently from a climate change scenario. They can relate to critical increases in climate driven variables such as sea level or extreme temperature beyond which a new adaptation measure is required.

The plan can then allow for changes in response to be identified and allowed for in the future. This could involve the need for measures such as temporary planning permission or reserving of land for future flood storage.The Thames Estuary Project (TE2100) has identified which adaptation measures will work where and to what thresholds of change in sea level.

It has then proposed options for the future plan based on routes or pipelines through the century. The timing of the decisions along these routes will be driven partly by the rate of climate change.This slide is taken from the TE2100 online consultation and shows what measures should work well and where in the estuary related to a low level of water level change.This slide is taken from the TE2100 online consultation and shows what measures should work well and where in the estuary related to a medium water level change.This slide is taken from the TE2100 online consultation and shows what measures should work well and where in the estuary related to a high water level change.Flood risk is increasing more people and property at risk in flood plain increasing (TG) climate change (4 cc scenarios being considered by TE2100, L,M,H, H+) ageing flood defence infrastructure (about halfway through its 60 yr life)

We can define an acceptable level of risk - this needs to be agreed with Govtcan measure any way we wish in e.g reduction in flood level, damage avoided, deaths prevented, confidence/economic growth etc.

Key feature of Thames tidal defences is huge sunk investmentso a useful measure is in extending the life of our major asset the Thames Barrier - cost 500m in the 80s wd cost about 2bn to rebuild today (or 6bn+ to rebuild bigger barrier further down the estuary)

Aim of TE2100 project is to manage risk down to acceptable level

In reality this is likely to be in a series of planned interventions over the next 100 years

This slide shows how in developing high level options TE2100 has identified more accurately what portfolio of measures or responses will work well and shows their limits of effectiveness.Four different options or routes have been devised to show how flood risk could be managed within these thresholds of effectiveness.The range of changes in level reflect the extreme scenario (high plus plus) which is very unlikely but was derived to ensure the project is considering a sufficient envelope of possible future change.Here the analysis which has been made in relation to water level change is illustrated in terms of what climate change scenarios imply in temporal terms.

With a medium high climate change scenario all four routes could be suitable for 100 years.This shows how different routes could achieve the objectives of the plan.Here with the extreme change presented by the high plus plus scenario only one option could manage the increase in flood risk by the end of the century.This shows that the final plan could be a combination of options. It will be adaptable and will depend on monitoring the rate of climate change.

The dotted blue line shows a conceptual lead time indicating that decisions will have to be made well in advance of critical lead times. In addition in planning terms Spatial strategies will need to be aware of the possible options at the start of the plan period so that future options for flood storage for example are not precluded.TE2100 have also commissioned a study to look at the limits to adaptation. This is not yet finalised but will indicate when the last option - a new barrage would reach its pragmatic limit of effectiveness. The provisional figure is about 5 metres mean sea level rise, which equates to about 6 metres on the above scale.