European Real Estate Market Outloook€¦ · What Could Go Right… `Beginning of a North American...
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European Real Estate pMarket Outloook
PropertyEU's Outlook 2013 series of investment briefingsParis, November 22nd, 2012
Mahdi Mokrane, PhD, MRICSH d f R h & St t E
Focused on the future of real estate
Head of Research & Strategy - Europe
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Economic Environment Overview: Barbell ?
US Europe Asia
• Growth has returned and business expansion is anticipated in 2013
• Recovery has so far been jobless
• Initial surge in sentiment post crisis has dissipated
• Europe facing double-dip recession
• China now seeing slower growth
• Japan is on track but affected by weaker exports
M i
Source: AEW
• Pent up consumer demand
• Fiscal uncertainty/ presidential elections
• Major fiscal restrictions and austerity in many countries
• Banking market over-levered
• Australia has had 21 years of growth,but some signs of slowing
• Significant investment capital within sovereign and super funds
Macroeconomic Picture
2 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
sovereign and super funds
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Why I’m positive on the U.S.
3 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
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U.S. Still Heading Toward a “Fiscal Cliff”
Mandatory 10% cuts on all discretionary spending y y p gbeginning January 2013 ($100 billion)
“Bush Tax Cuts” automatically expire at the end of 2012 unless affirmatively extended ($290 of 2012 unless affirmatively extended ($290 billion)
Payroll tax reduction ($120 billion) and extended $jobless benefits also expire at year end ($40
billion)
AMT inflation adjustment ($100 billion) and AMT inflation adjustment ($100 billion) and adjustment to Medicare reimbursement rate for physicians need to be affirmed by year-end
In total trims 4% 5% from GDP growth in 2013In total, trims 4%-5% from GDP growth in 2013
Next debt ceiling “extension” also needed by year-end to avoid downgrade/default risk
4 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
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What is the Fed Trying to Do?
Increase the rate of economic growth by “over‐reserving” the lending system and reducing the overall leverage burden of the economy
QE3 is really “QE for as long as it takes”; here and in Europe and Japan
Force capital into “risk” assets by committing to zero yield on “safe” assets for a long time
d d b f fSpur consumption and investment today by raising expectations for future inflation
Reduce real borrowing costs by lowering nominal costs and increasingReduce real borrowing costs by lowering nominal costs and increasing inflation
5 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
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The Fed Commits to Extended Accommodation
EXPECTED CHANGE IN FED POLICY BY NUMBER OF FOMC MEMBERSRECENTLY UNEARTHED HOME VIDEO OF BEN BERNANKE AS A CHILD
12
11
12
13BEN BERNANKE AS A CHILD
8
9
10
5
6
7
8
3
23
4
5
1 1
0
1
2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
6 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
Source: Federal Reserve (FOMC press release September 2012)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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What Could Go Right…
Beginning of a North American energy paradigm shift
– Re‐sourcing of manufacturing and re‐alignment of the energy supply chain
Housing
– Housing has been net negative to the recovery so far, but it has bottomed
Psychological and Confidence Shifty g
– Division of the election is over. If progress is made on “fiscal cliff”, psychology should improve quickly
Strong Corporate Balance Sheets (Cash)
– Banks and corporations are sitting on a mountain of a cash that could be deployed quickly
7 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
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Why I’m much less optimisticabout the E.U.
8 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
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Financial conditions have improved in the Periphery
• Surge in positive sentiment underpinned by the Q1 LTROs quickly dissipated in Q2 Weighted European Peripheral Bond SpreadQ1 LTROs quickly dissipated in Q2
• Some encouraging signs however (Draghi in July, Merkel-Hollande talks, ECB’s OMT scheme, and German Constitutional Court ruling) 7
8
g p p p% spread over German bund
g)
• The Draghi Plan is a pledge to buy unlimited quantities of bonds, enforce reform, and remove private investor concerns over seniority
5
6
• The Draghi Plan
• ushered the Eurozone crisis into a new phase, 2
3
4
p ,
• removed some short-term downside tail risk,
and has boosted short term market 0
1
10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12• and has boosted short-term market expectations. 07
/20
09/20
11/20
01/20
03/20
05/20
07/20
09/20
11/20
01/20
03/20
05/20
07/20
09/20
Source: Datastream, Oxford Economics, AEW Europe
9 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
, , p
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The Draghi (ECB) OMT plan a positive but...
• The old ECB bond purchasing “Securities Market Programme” (SMP) has been terminated and replaced with “Outright Monetary Transactions” (OMT)
• This involves:
– Unlimited Crisis Country (CC) bond buying in the secondary markets
– For those CC that formally request EFSF/ ESM aid and accept the attached conditionality
Bond purchases to be fully sterilised and only focus on the short end of the yield curve– Bond purchases to be fully sterilised and only focus on the short end of the yield curve
– Seniority will not be affected for private investors by the bond purchases
– No OMT for Greece, Portugal, Ireland until they can access bond markets on their own
• The Draghi OMT plan was approved by the ECB in the first week of September, despite opposition from the Bundesbank
• Considering the German opposition to the plan and veto power over the use of the EFSF, and the above restrictions, the plan appears to be a watered down version of the outgoing SMP
• The plan’s strict conditionality means that participating countries will need to agree to further structural reforms and austerity
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... no game changer
• Positive but incomplete:
– The exclusion of the three smaller CCs leaves them in a distinctly weaker position and effectively puts a ‘firewall’ of sorts around the two larger CCs of Italy and Spainp g y p
– If anything, the smaller CCs need the aid more, as they are more desperate to get their funding costs down, which is one factor necessary for their recovery. Their exclusion makes recovery more difficult for them and leaves them now more likely to exit the Eurozone
– Whilst the conditionality of reform and austerity is necessary for recovery, there is a risk these will be implemented too quickly and/or deeply and have a negative effect
– The plan on its own does not solve the chronic lack of competiveness and growth in the CC
• As such, our house view remains unchanged:
– Germany alone or jointly with the other northern European countries leaving the Eurozone; or even GB leaving the EU (over regulation, EU budget..)g ( g , g )
– or a number of the CC either defaulting and/or leaving the Eurozone is likely unless real conclusive measures are enacted.
• Ergo the OMT is not a game changer• Ergo, the OMT is not a game changer
• More important: without a meaningful banking union, the vicious interdependence between weak banks and weak governments cannot be broken.
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But outlook remains challenging with domestic demand a drag on growthdemand a drag on growth
All d l d t G h t i • All roads lead to Germany: what in exchange for the price of rescuing/fixing the Eurozone?
• Italian (April) and especially German 3%
4%
Eurozone: GDP and Domestic Demand
• Italian (April) and especially German (Sept.) elections in 2013 are highly likely to drive the nature and timing of the Eurozone crisis in the short-term
0%
1%
2%
• In the meanwhile Europe will continue to fiscally consolidate and flirt with double-dip recession.
‐3%
‐2%
‐1%
• Eurozone PMI manufacturing and services indices indicate contraction
• The Eurozone economy is likely to continue to contract from slowing global demand
‐5%
‐4%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
GDP Internal consumption
to contract from slowing global demand, fiscal austerity, and a declining supply of credit
Source: Datastream, Oxford Economics, AEW Europe
12 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
, , p
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Long term prospects likely to be below trend for EU
Main implications of the above scenario :
3,0
GDP Growth % point difference from historical average
• Germany and other northern Eurozone countries allow heightened inflation in the medium-long term
• EU real GDP contracts for the best part of 2012-2013
1,0
2,0 • The Bundesbank allows the ECB to lower its base rate
• Unemployment peaks in 2014-2015
1 0
‐
• EU economies rebound in 2016-2017 and only mean-revert towards historical GDP growth in 2019-2020
‐2,0
‐1,0 EUROZONE
US
BRICS
Real GDP Growth Europe (EU) UK2013 0.15% 1.0%2014 1.0% 1.4%
‐3,0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2015 1.5% 2.0%2016-20 (average) 1.9% 2.5%
13 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012 Source: Oxford Economics, AEW Europe
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But some countries will fare much better than others
AEW Europe’s attractiveness scoring for RE in EuropeCombining the Economy, Structural RE score and Forecasts (out of a maximum score of 100)
70,0
80,0
Forecasted Real Estate Performance
Structural CRE Strength
50,0
60,0 Macroeconomic strength
30,0
40,0
10,0
20,0
0,0
UK
Ger
man
y
Fran
ce
Pola
nd NL
Swed
en
Swit
zerl
…
Finl
and
Nor
way
Lux.
Aust
ria
Ital
y
Belg
ium
Dan
ema…
Esto
nia
Irel
and
Czec
h …
Spai
n
Slov
akia
Slov
enia
Port
ugal
Hun
gary
Gre
ece
14 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012 Sources: AEW Europe
G S B D S S P H
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AEW’s attractiveness scoring for RE in Europe : differentiation in the periphery and France in the middlep p yScore out of a maximum of 100
Total Score > 70
60 < Total Score <= 70
50 < Total Score <= 60
40 < Total Score <= 50
30 < Total Score <= 40
20 < Total Score <= 30
15 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
Sources: AEW Europe
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What Could Go Right…
US and Asia growth and internal demand h l ll b k EU f ihelp pull back EU from recession
Most importantly the Eurozone has ammunition to deal with the crisis:
ECB even more interventionist
More bailouts
Full bailout for SpainFull bailout for Spain
Renegotiation for Greece
‘mini’ bailout for Italy?
New bailout for Portugal?
Move towards fiscal & banking union
M j t t l f iftlMajor structural reforms swiftly implemented in France
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CRE: Why debt finance willplay centre stage
17 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
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Why does it matter ?
The Effect of Debt Availability on the UK CRE Market
UK net lending to property companies (RHS, GBP billions) IPD UK capital value index (LHS, base=100)
35
40
250
300
20
25
30
200
10
15
20
150
0
5
50
100
‐10
‐5
0
981
982
983
984
985
986
987
988
989
990
991
992
993
994
995
996
997
998
999
000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
010
011
18 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Source: IPD, BoE
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Senior mortgage real estate debt seen as the new super corecore
Typical lending terms for core property (sept. 2012)Based on a five year loan from a single lender. Margin over the Euribor/ Libor swap rate
Germany UK France Recent market Trend
Max LTV 67% 65% 65% ↔
Max Loan Size (€) 150+ 65 50-60 ↑( )
Minimum Margin 190 275 250 ↔
Funding Gap estimated to be more than €300bn according to our calculations.Senior mortgage real estate debt:
• Is directly backed by an underlying real asset (resisted during the 2009-type downturn)y y y g ( g yp )
• Has become even more attractive recently with higher margins now that banks have
somewhat retreated
• Increases a portfolio’s diversification as it sits between real estate and fixed income
European banks sell €7.5bn of property loans from Jan. to Sept. 2012 (CBRE)
19 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012Source: AEW Europe
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Core will stay King until the German election next yearGerman election next year
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2012 Investment Volumes Lag those of 2011 for the MomentMoment
UK: Month on month cumulative investment volumesFrance: Month on month cumulative investment volumes
12 00014 00016 00018 00020 000
2012 2011 2010 2009
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 0002012 2011 2010 2009
2 0004 0006 0008 000
10 00012 000
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
• Volumes are slightly behind in the UK Germany: Month on month cumulative investment volumes
0J F M A M J J A S O N D
0J F M A M J J A S O N D
2012 2011 2010 2009g yand to a larger extent in France but the slowdown is more marked in Germany 15 000
20 000
25 0002012 2011 2010 2009
• Recall that Q4 2011 investment volumes in France were somewhat “stimulated” by the in termination of 0
5 000
10 000
21 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
the so called SIIC 3 tax break regime Sources: RCA, AEW Europe
J F M A M J J A S O N D
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Periphery is way behind and has become an opportunistic play even for Core assetsopportunistic play even for Core assets
Italy: Month on month cumulative investment volumes Spain: Month on month cumulative investment volumes
3 500
4 000
4 5002012 2011 2010 2009
3 000
3 500
4 0002012 2011 2010 2009
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
0
500
1 000
J F M A M J J A S O N D0
500
1 000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
• Very low volumes despite a relatively good start of the year
• With Spain moving centre stage in the Eurozone crisis, investment
• Eurozone fears and risk aversion are quite high on investors’ agendas
volumes have tumbled
• Only opportunistic investors and a handful of local players are still
22 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
handful of local players are still activeSources: RCA, AEW Europe
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Why debt finance will play centre stageCore will stay King until the German election next yeary g y
Commercial real estate Investment volumes in Europe (€bn) Yield divergence in Europe (%)
50 0
60,0
70,0
7 5%
8,5%
30,0
40,0
50,0
Italy
Spain
Germany
6,5%
7,5%
10,0
20,0
, Germany
France
UK4,5%
5,5%
0,0
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q3
2010
Q1
2010
Q3
2011
Q1
2011
Q3
2012
Q1
3,5%'08 '09 '10 '11 '12
UK Regional France RegionalLondon Prime Paris PrimePeripherals
* 4 quarter rolling average (Office and Retail Yields)
• Risk aversion is still at all time highs: polarization visible between property types, locations and income profiles
Of t i t t i iti b 15% i th fi t h lf f 2012
23 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012 Sources: RCA, PMA, AEW Europe
• Of note: overseas investors grew property acquisitions by 15% in the first half of 2012
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Main takeaways
What kind of deals should you be i i hi i ?executing in this environment?
24 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
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Real estate investment markets: overview
• Market characterized by strong risk aversion, but not a “wait and see” attitude• Majority of European property markets are posting stable net initial yields
• Absent a euro breakup, European real estate presents relatively good value:– with an average 6% NOI yieldwith an average 6% NOI yield
– CRE yields at 5% to 6% for Core offer a historically attractive yield spread when compared to very senior corporate bonds yielding 2.4% and 0.8% for a blend of UK, French, and German five-year government bondsy g
• Cross-border capital (incl. from other regions) is increasing and expected to continue to favor the London, Paris, Nordic, and Polish markets
• Main risk (and opportunity) is the estimated €200-400bn 2012-2014 funding gap• Opportunistic approach to European CRE should be backed by “don’t bet on
growth and convert assets to core” philosophy.
25 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
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We know all about Core but is there room for other strategies?strategies?
Core Value Added Opportunistic Core Europe
Value Added Europe
Opportunistic Europe
ff CBD / Edge of CBD mainly Leasing Risk (Germany)Office CBD / Edge of CBD mainly
targeting London and Paris ? Liquidating FundsStressed capital stacks
RetailCity centre urban regeneration
?Temporary shift of focus to too
narrow a definition of Core RetailSale and leasebacks
? narrow a definition of Core (Secondary UK)
Residential Student accommodation ?Developer backing London &
South EastSolid demand in Germany
LogisticsLong-leased new build in the European logistics ‘banana
shaped’ market? Portfolio sales with heavy
discountsshaped market
Other Other Lodging alternatives and senior housing/clinics ?
Debt workoutsOperating Platforms in
specialized market segments(Self Storage)
26 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
(Self Storage)
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Panel Discussion
27 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
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Contact
Research & Strategy Investor Relations
Mahdi Mokrane, PhD, MRICSHead of Research & Strategy - Europe
8 12 d Pi d B
Schalk Visser, CFAManaging Director, Head of Investor Relations
33 J St t8-12 rue des Pirogues de Bercy 75012 ParisFrance
[email protected]+33 (0)1 7840 9260
33 Jermyn StreetSW1Y 6DN LondonUnited Kingdom
[email protected]+44 (0)20 7016 4845
28 European Real Estate Market Outlook – October 2012
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This publication is intended to provide information to assist investors in making their own investment decisions, not to provide investment advice to any specific investor. Investments discussed and recommendations herein may not besuitable for all investors: readers must exercise their own independent judgment as to the suitability of such investments and recommendations in light of their own investment objectives, experience, taxation status and financial position.This publication is derived from selected sources we believe to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made regarding the accuracy of completeness of, or otherwise with respect to, the information presented herein. Opinions expressedherein reflect the current judgment of the author : they do not necessarily reflect the opinions of AEW Europe or any subsidiary or affiliate of the AEW Europe’s Group and may change without notice. While AEW Europe uses reasonableefforts to include accurate and up-to-date information in this publication, errors or omissions sometimes occur. AEW Europe expressly disclaims any liability, whether in contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, for any direct, indirect,i id t l ti l p iti p i l d i i t f i t d ith th f thi p bli ti Thi p t t b pi d t itt d di t ib t d t th p t ith t th p itt p i i
Focused on the future of real estate
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