European multi-country FMD Spread model (EuFMDiS) project

Graeme Garner, Mark Hovari, Keith Sumption

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Background• EuFMD 41st General Session identified: Continuing support to animal

movement and disease spread modelling, with the outputs to informcontingency planning activities as priority for STC

• Project to develop pilot European, multi-country animal disease spreadmodel approved under FAR 4th Call and included in EuFMD workplan for2017-19

• This activity comes under Component 1.2: to provide technical support tostrengthen national capability on modelling, contingency planning,simulation exercises

• Endorsed at EuFMD 94th Executive Committee meeting in Dublin Ireland(12-13 October 2017)

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Overview• The Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS) model is the basis of the project

o Developed with funding by the Australian Governmento Sophisticated disease modelling platform and decision-support tool for

FMD o Used in EuFMD disease modelling training workshops (in 2014 and 2016)o Potential to be used in Europe identified

• A intellectual property deed of license document that meet’s both Australia and FAO’s legal requirements has been prepared

• The project has received a very positive response with seven countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Italy, Hungary, Romania and Slovenia) enrolled.

o comfortably exceeds the performance indicator for this activity of three countries being involved in a cross border modelling study.

o Spain, Turkey and F.Y.R. of Macedonia, are also showing interest in FMD modeling training

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• A dedicated e-learning page is set up toprovide a discussion forum and arepository to share resources

• On-line meetings are held at regular intervals to share progress among the countries and to discuss upcoming milestone or relevant issues.

Approach• An initial workshop was held, in Vienna, Austria, 5-7 December 2017 to:

o bring the participating countries together o discuss the scope of a multi-country European disease spread modelo identify the country-specific data required and o agree on project time frames, and deliverables

• A workplan has been developed with key milestones

Progress• Partners have:

o identified and defined livestock production regions within their respective countries (n=25)

o agreed on a common herd classification system (n=9)o discussed role of assembly centres

• Instructions and templates for reporting data needed for model parameterization have been prepared

• Collecting and processing country data is underway:o population data sets o animal movement datao indirect contacts o data on inter-country movements from the TRACES system o resources and control measures

Livestock production regions by country

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ID Species Herd type Description 1 bov Large commercial

dairy herd Specialist milk producer. Cattle are kept to primarily produce and sell milk

2 bov Large commercial beef herd

Specialist beef production. Cattle are kept to primarily produce and sell meat

3 bov Small commercial cattle herd

Cattle are kept, usually in smaller herd sizes, to primarily produce and sell meat and/or milk on a smaller, local scale

4 buf Commercial buffalo Buffalo kept for milk or meat production 5 ovi/cap Commercial small

ruminants Small ruminants are kept to primarily produce and sell meat/milk/wool commercially

6 sui Large-scale commercial fattening pig herd

Pigs are kept under intensive production system to be grown and sold for slaughter, for pig meat production

7 sui Large scale commercial breeding pig herd

Pigs are kept under intensive production system for producing replacement pigs to be sold to other holdings (e.g. fattening farms)

8 sui Small-scale commercial pig Pigs are kept primarily to produce and sell meat on a smaller, local scale. Generally lower biosecurity than intensive systems

9 mixed Backyard herd Small number of animals (cattle, buffalo, sheep, goat, pig) kept primarily for own consumption (non-commercial).

Herd categories

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Development phase Milestone Prototype 1 – proof of concept featuring a test herd dataset, test spread pathways, test control measures and test resources

28 Feb 2018

Prototype 2 – incorporation of a realistic herd dataset and country-dependent test spread pathways

31 Mar 2018

Prototype 3 – realistic spread pathways, control measures and resources

30 Jun 2018

Model development• While the AADIS has provided the underlying platform, a new multi-country FMD

modelling tool - the European Foot and Mouth Disease Spread (EUFMDiS) model – is being developed

• Model development is proceeding through three prototypes progressively incorporating more detail and realism

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Summary• The project is on-track to deliver a working model that will simulate spread and

control of FMD within and between the participating central European countries by 30 June 2018.

• A second workshop to install the software and train country representatives in using the model is proposed for July 2018.

• It is anticipated that countries will be able to use the model to:o Study size, duration and economic impact of outbreakso Assess potential for establishment and spread of FMD under local

conditionso Test surveillance approaches - early detection o Look at resource needs and resource management issueso Compare different response strategies (including use of vaccination)o Support exercises and training activities

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Thank you for you attention!Any questions?

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