SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL

CREDIT OPINION21 January 2020

Update

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KathrinMuehlbronner

+44.20.7772.1383

Senior Vice Presidentkathrin.muehlbronner@moodys.com

Dietmar Hornung +49.69.70730.790Associate Managing Directordietmar.hornung@moodys.com

Yves Lemay +44.20.7772.5512MD-Sovereign Riskyves.lemay@moodys.com

Raphaele Auberty +33.1.5330.3414Associate Analystraphaele.auberty@moodys.com

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European Investment Fund – Aaa stableRegular update

SummaryThe European Investment Fund's (EIF, Aaa stable) credit profile reflects its robustcapitalisation, very strong liquidity and funding position and significant support of its keyshareholders, the European Investment Bank (EIB, Aaa stable) and the European Union (EU,Aaa stable). EIF's key credit challenge relates to effectively preserving its solid capital positionin the context of a rapid expansion of its portfolio over the past few years, prior to a potentialnext capital increase after 2020.

Exhibit 1

EIF’s credit profile is determined by three factors

Capital adequacy Liquidity and funding

a1 aaa

Qualitative adjustments

0

Strength of member support

Very High

Preliminary intrinsic financial strength

aa2

Adjusted intrinsic financial strength

aa2

Rating range

Aaa-Aa2

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Credit strengths

» High capital buffers and very strong liquidity position coupled with no debt outstanding

» Strong governance and prudent risk management as evidenced by the entity’s trackrecord of low impairments on its equity investments and limited calls on guarantees

» Very strong ability and willingness of the EIF's key shareholders to provide support

Credit challenges

» Business focus on inherently risky equity participations in SMEs

» Potential risks stemming from the rapid expansion of its business activities

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL

Rating outlookThe outlook on the rating is stable, reflecting our expectation that the EIF’s solid financial metrics will be maintained over the comingyears, and the fund’s key shareholders will maintain their strong interest in and commitment to the EIF. In addition, the EIF has no debtoutstanding and no intention to borrow. As such, our rating reflects our assessment of the EIF's ability to honour all forms of financialobligations and contracts, including guarantees, denominated in any currency.

The United Kingdom’s (Aa2 negative) decision to leave the EU will not have a material impact on the EIF's key metrics in our view. TheEIF's exposure to UK-based entities is relatively limited, and we do not expect its performance to deteriorate materially due to Brexit.The impact on the EIF’s capital structure will be marginal, given that the two UK-based shareholders hold only 0.2% of the shares; theycan remain shareholders in the EIF beyond the UK’s withdrawal.

Factors that could lead to a downgradeThere are very limited pressures on the EIF’s rating. The entity has pro-actively shifted towards preserving its solid capital buffers byfocusing on cost reduction and limiting activities with high capital consumption, as the next capital increase will only be on the agendaafter 2020 in the context of the finalisation of the EU's next multi-annual budget.

The rating could come under downward pressure in case of rating downgrades of the main shareholders. A severe deterioration in theEIF’s operations – with large increases in guarantee calls and losses on the equity portfolio – or a severe deterioration of the value of itstreasury portfolio would also put downward pressure on the rating.

Key indicators

Exhibit 2

European Investment Fund 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total Assets (USD million) 2,031.4 2,482.8 2,376.2 2,426.0 2,985.5 3,051.0

Development-related Assets (DRA) / Usable Equity [1] 304.9 204.0 208.0 337.8 366.7 457.4

Non-Performing Assets / DRA 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0

Return on Average Assets 3.3 4.8 4.6 5.4 4.6 4.9

Liquid Assets / ST Debt + CMLTD -- -- -- -- -- --

Liquid Assets / Total Assets 31.3 47.2 42.1 23.7 21.4 19.3

Callable Capital / Gross Debt -- -- -- -- -- --

[1] Usable equity is total shareholder's equity and excludes callable capital

Sources: EIF, Moody's Investors Service

Detailed credit considerationsWe score the EIF's capital adequacy at “a1”, which combines our assessment of “ba1” for capital position, “aa” for development assetcredit quality and “aaa” for asset performance. The EIF's leverage ratio, which assesses the available capital buffer relative to the fund'sdevelopment assets, is relatively high at 467% as of end-2018. The ratio has increased significantly between 2014 and 2018 due to therapid business expansion linked to the EU's multi-year strategic investment programme, the European Fund for Strategic Investments(EFSI or Juncker Plan). However, business volumes have started to stabilise at around €10 billion overall in 2018 and 2019. Accordingto the latest corporate operation plan (COP 2020-2022) published in December 2019, business volumes are expected to remain stablethis year and next at around the €10 billion mark.

Around half of EIF's business is done under mandate from and at the risk of either the EIB, the EU or individual member states. Weadjust the leverage metric upward from the initial score of “ba2” to “ba1” for several reasons: (1) the absence of debt implies thatEIF's useable equity is entirely available to absorb losses from business activities, (2) the EIF's predominant guarantee business has an

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

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inherently lower risk profile than extending loans and (3) we expect a stable or slightly improving trend for 2019 and 2020, followed bya potentially more significant improvement in the following years as another capital increase may be forthcoming.

We also consider the rising leverage to be a clear indication of the relevance of the EIF to the EU's policy goals. The EIF designs andimplements financial instruments to provide market-based finance to SMEs such as (1) guarantees on tranches of securitisations of SMEloans, leases and other debt financings and guarantees on a portion of SME loan portfolios made by financial institutions (which areoff-balance sheet but form part of our credit analysis); and (2) stakes in private equity funds oriented towards investments in SMEs.

At less than 10% of the total portfolio, riskier equity investments are a small share of the EIF's total exposure; in addition the averagefund size is small. Therefore, our assessment of the EIF's development asset quality focuses mostly on its guarantee portfolio, whichaccounts for over 90% of the fund's own-risk exposure. This portfolio does not only have a high credit quality in itself, it additionallybenefits from significant credit protections provided by the EU. Portfolio diversification, for both the guarantee portfolio and privateequity investments, is a further strength. As at year-end 2018, the EIF's top 10 exposures accounted for around 22% of its own-riskportfolio. All of these factors combined result in the score of “aa” for development asset credit quality.

The key ratio we consider to assess asset performance is the level of non-performing assets, which we score at “aaa” for the EIF. TheEIF has a long track record of very strong asset quality, reflecting solid governance and prudent risk management. There have beenvery limited calls on guarantees and impairments on the equity portfolio in recent years. In 2018, the last year available with full-yearfinancials, calls on guarantees amounted to €0.2 million, which is insignificant compared with the size of development-related assets.Even at their peak in 2015-2016, non-performing assets accounted for just 1.3% of disbursed development-related assets.1

We consider the EIF's liquidity and funding position to be very strong and score it at “aaa” on both key indicators that we consider.Its highly liquid treasury assets - comprising cash and short-term bank deposits as well as securities rated A2 or higher - constitute acomfortable cushion at around €1.4 billion as of end-2018. The quality of EIF’s treasury assets is generally high, with 64% of assetsinvested in Aaa and Aa-rated securities and a further 29% rated in the “Single A” rating category. There is no currency risk in the EIF'streasury portfolio, as all of the assets are invested in euro-denominated securities.

We compare the size of the available liquid assets to cash outflows in a stressed scenario over the coming 18 months, in which theMDB has no access to markets but continues its normal business operations. The EIF does not face any refinancing risks because it hasno debt outstanding. It also has good visibility over its cash flow needs, given that it pays out on called guarantees according to theoriginal schedule of payments (non-acceleration clause), such that payments are generally distributed over several years. Its cushion ofliquid assets is among the highest of all the MDBs we rate.

The EIF has no debt outstanding and no plans to issue, hence judging its potential depth and ease of market access is a theoreticalexercise. However, we believe that the very strong liquidity position as well as the strength and track record of the EIF's keyshareholders would ensure that the EIF had solid market access. In addition, the EIB's long-standing role as anchor shareholder givesus comfort that the EIB would provide such liquidity in the unlikely event it was ever needed. We also believe that the EIF couldpotentially have access to the ECB's liquidity operations via the EIB, which already manages the largest part of EIF's liquidity portfolio.We reflect this potential access (which has never been tested) by applying an upward adjustment to the EIF's liquidity score.

Combining capital adequacy and liquidity and funding scores, we position EIF's intrinsic financial profile at “aa2”, among the highest inour rated universe. The qualitative factors that we additionally consider, such as an MDB's operating environment and the quality of itsmanagement, do not have a bearing on EIF's intrinsic credit strength. The entity mainly operates in EU countries, which have seen lowbut stable growth in recent years, with the countries hit by the sovereign debt crisis all recovering from the crisis years. The EIF's riskmanagement policies are prudent and robust, and the governance principles are of a high standard, as we would expect from a highlyrated entity.

We assess the strength of EIF's member support as “Very High”, which provides a three-notch uplift from the entity's intrinsicfinancial profile of “aa2”. The assessment reflects the shareholders' strong ability and willingness to support the EIF. Our assessmentof the ability to provide support is based on the weighted average shareholder rating; in the case of the EIF this stands at Aa1, one ofthe highest in our rated MDB universe. As of 1 January 2020, the EIB was the EIF's largest shareholder, with a share of 59.2% of EIF'ssubscribed capital of €4.5 billion, followed by the EU (29.7%) and 34 public and private financial institutions (11.6%).

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We score the shareholders' (contractual) willingness to provide support at “baa1”. This not only reflects the size of the callable capitalbuffer relative to the EIF's asset base but also takes into account factors such as the put option offered by the EIB to the financialinstitutions among the EIF's shareholders should they wish to exit the EIF. In addition, the EIF Statutes have EU Law statute, supersedingnational law and hence providing a stronger-than-usual legal basis for the capital call mechanism. The mechanism to call capital isrobust and transparent; a capital call has to be honoured within 90 days. Beyond callable capital we consider the shareholders' (non-contractual) willingness to provide support to be very high, given the EIF's importance for and expertise in financing SMEs in Europe.

ESG considerationsHow environmental, social and governance risks inform our credit analysis of the EIFMoody's takes account of the impact of environmental (E), social (S) and governance (G) factors when assessing supranational issuers’credit profile. In the case of the EIF, the materiality of ESG to the credit profile is as follows:

Environmental risks are not material for the EIF's rating. The EIF's operations are increasingly focusing on climate objectives, asillustrated by its target of at least 10% of activities in climate and environment from 2020,. However, environmental risks to itsdevelopment asset portfolio are limited as we do not generally see such risks as being prominent in the region.

Social risks are not material for the EIF's rating, amid the relative social and political stability within the European Union and thediversification of its portfolio.

The EIF's sound governance framework is illustrated by its prudent risk management policies, and high standard governance principles.

All of these considerations are further discussed in the “Detailed credit considerations” section above. Our approach to ESG isexplained in our cross-sector methodology General Principles for Assessing ESG Risks. Additional information about our ratingapproach is provided in our Supranational Rating Methodology.

Recent developmentsBusiness volumes set to remain broadly stable in the coming years, with a shift towards equity financing

According to the EIF's Corporate Operational Plan (COP) 2020-2022, business volumes are expected to be maintained at around€10 billion per annum over the next few years, in line with 2018 levels and 2019 forecasts, with around half to be done at the EIF'sown risk and the remainder under mandate. Since 2017, growth in business volumes has slowed down to a more moderate pace,also reflecting the EIF's decision to preserve capital prior to a potential next capital increase. In the first nine months of 2019, the EIFrecorded business volumes of €6.8 billion, compared with €5.7 billion over the same period in 2018. The increase was largely driven byhigher guarantees, while equity financing remained broadly stable.

For full-year 2019, the EIF forecasts overall volumes for both equity and guarantee business of €10.2 billion (own-risk and undermandate). In 2020, EFSI-related activities will remain an important driver of the EIF's business.

The EIF targets higher equity financing in 2021 and 2022, while the level of guarantees should decrease. Equity investments aretargeted to account for 48% of total volumes on average in 2021-2022, up from 33% in 2019-2020. With EFSI coming to an end as ofend-2020, the EU plans to consolidate EFSI with its other 14 financing programmes into the so-called InvestEU platform. According tocurrent plans, the EU will provide a guarantee of €38 billion in order to mobilise total investments of €650 billion, with the EIB Group(EIB and EIF) responsible for at least 75% of the total.

Next capital increase only likely in 2021

The next capital increase might occur in 2021 as part of the EU’s next multi-annual budget for the period 2021-2027. Hence, since2017 the EIF has shifted its focus to preserving and optimising the use of its capital; it no longer invests in activities that are particularlycapital-intensive such as mezzanine tranches of ABS transactions, and has started to sell tail-end PE funds to investors. In a similar vein,the EIF has focused on controlling its cost base, by outsourcing low value-added activities and containing the increase in staff numbers.For the first nine months of 2019, the EIF managed to achieve a cost/income ratio of below 40%, compared to 42.3% in the sameperiod of 2018 and a target of 56.3% for the full year of 2019. Over the longer term, EIF targets a cost/income ratio of 55-60% and aReturn on Equity (RoE) of 5-6% on average.

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In an initiative to expand business further without using its own resources, in November 2018 the EIF established an AssetManagement Umbrella Fund (AMUF), which allows investors to directly invest in the EIF's best-performing venture capital, life sciencesand private equity funds. In a similar vein, the joint €500 million China-EU Co-Investment Fund will invest joint resources into privateequity and venture capital funds in Europe, particularly those interested in cross-border expansion. Overall, the EIF aims to attract over€2.4 billion in private funding over the 2020-2022 period.

Profitability remained strong in first nine months of 2019, driven by rising business volumes

Net profits recorded a 14% year-on-year increase in the first nine months of 2019, reaching €142.2 million. The performance is abovethe COP target, with a return on equity of 9.6% over January-September 2019, up from 8.2% over the same period in 2018 andcompared with a target of 5.4% for the year. The increase was largely driven by higher volumes of mandate business.

The entity derives most of its revenues from management/commission fees for its business done under mandate, which accountedfor 55% of total revenues in 2018. Commission revenues have nearly doubled since 2014, a reflection of the strong increase in themandate business. However, the EIF remains among the few MDBs to distribute dividends to shareholders, although the dividenddistribution rate has gradually been reduced over the past few years (from 40% of net income historically to 10% in recent years).

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Rating methodology and scorecard factors

Initial score Adjusted score Assigned score

Factor 1: Capital adequacy (50%) a1 a1

Capital position (20%) ba1

Leverage ratio ba2

Trend +1

Impact of profit and loss on leverage 0

Development asset credit quality (10%) aa

DACQ assessment aa

Trend 0

Asset performance (20%) aaa

Non-performing assets aaa

Trend 0

Excessive development asset growth 0

Factor 2: Liquidity and funding (50%) aaa aaa

Liquid resources (10%) aaa

Availability of liquid resources aaa

Trend in coverage outflow 0

Access to extraordinary liquidity +1

Quality of funding (40%) aaa

Preliminary intrinsic financial strength aa2

Other adjustments 0

Operating environment 0

Quality of management 0

Adjusted intrinsic financial strength aa2

Factor 3: Strength of member support (+3,+2,+1,0) Very High Very High

Ability to support - weighted average shareholder rating (50%) aa1

Willingness to support (50%)

Contractual support (25%) ba1 baa1

Strong enforcement mechanism +2

Payment enhancements +1

Non-contractual support (25%) Very High

Rating range Aaa-Aa2

Rating Aaa

Rating factor grid - European Investment Fund

Note: While the information used to determine the grid mapping is mainly historical, our ratings incorporate expectations around future metrics and risk developments that may differ from the ones implied

by the rating range. Additional considerations that may not be currently captured by the metrics used in the scorecard can be reflected in differences between the adjusted and assigned factor scores. Thus,

the rating process is deliberative and not mechanical, meaning that it depends on peer comparisons and should leave room for exceptional risk factors to be taken into account that may result in an

assigned rating outside the indicative rating range.

For more information please see our Multilateral Development Banks and Other Supranational Entities rating methodology.

Source: Moody's Investors Service

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Moody's related publications

» Rating Action: Moody's affirms European Investment Fund's Aaa rating and stable outlook, 14 December 2018

» Credit Analysis: European Investment Fund, 2 July 2019

» Rating Methodology: Multilateral Development Banks and Other Supranational Entities, 25 June 2019

To access any of these reports, click on the entry above. Note that these references are current as of the date of publication of this report and that more recent reports may be available. Allresearch may not be available to all clients.

Endnotes1 For the calculation of this ratio, we only consider drawn guarantees, instead of total committed guarantees, as part of the denominator.

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