European Crime and Safety Survey (EU-ICS):

Issues in Design and Estimation

Robert ManchinGallup Organisation, Europe

Citizens and Governance in a Knowledge-Based Society

First Call in Area 6

Brussels, 11th November 2004

Outline

• Background •Consortium Partners:

–UNODC, Max Planck Institute, UNICRI, CEPS

•Objectives of EU-ICS Survey– Sample Allocation– Data Collection Design

• Issues

– Estimation • Issues

• Access / Data Lab, Future Applications

What if?

• Landline coverage is not the same in the 25 countries? (coverage error 1)

• Mobile only is not a high status, but low status attribute – and status and victimization related?

• Mix of nophone / land only / mobile & landline /mobile only is changing ?

Objectives

• Objective 1: Estimate personal and household crime (VICTIM / SAFETY) rates at the National and EU level

• Objective 2: Estimate personal and household crime rates at the NUTS2 level

Data Collection Design

• Phone Data Collection with centralized RDD sample management

• n = 2000/per country with capital city boosted samples

Telephone Data Collection and Design

Landline Only Landline

& Mobile Mobile Only

Non-telephone Households

Estimation

•Single Frame

•Dual Frame– Landline– Mobile

•Multiple Frame– Landline– Mobile– Non-telephone

Nuts 2 Estimates a.k.a. Small Area Estimation

• Margin of error – Nuts 2 – 2.4% to 9.9%

• Capital cities small area estimation

– Synthetic– Past data– Borrow strength

Issues of access, collaboration

• EU funding requirements– 50% of costs only– One-time research budget / original R&D, no

strict repetition– Sustainable, on-going monitoring /

benchmarking with corresponding “business model”

– Consortium of users? Subscription based?

Capital city – combination of survey data with process-produced data

Questions? Suggestions?manchin@gallup-europe.be

Demo:

www.informatix.be