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European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 1
EU Climate policies EU Climate policies & &
Bio-energyBio-energy
Estonian conference on Estonian conference on ““The contribution of agriculture to energy production”The contribution of agriculture to energy production”
Talinn, 7 Ocotber 2005Talinn, 7 Ocotber 2005
Erik TangErik Tang
Climate Change & energyClimate Change & energy
DG EnvironmentDG Environment
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 2
The state of playThe state of play::The Science is robustThe Science is robust
• Most of the earth’s warming Most of the earth’s warming over the last 50 years (0.6over the last 50 years (0.6°° C) C) can be attributed to human can be attributed to human activitiesactivities
• Global temperature will increase by 1.4 – 5.8°C over next 100 years
Source: IPCC TAR
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 3
• Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversityTerrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity
• Glaciers, snow and iceGlaciers, snow and ice
• Marine ecosystemsMarine ecosystems
• AgricultureAgriculture
• EconomyEconomy
• Human healthHuman health
Factual signsFactual signs::Impacts in EuropeImpacts in Europe
EEA (2004): Impact of Europe’s changing climate
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 4
Climate change impacts: Agricultural Climate change impacts: Agricultural yields will be affectedyields will be affected
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 5
Where do we stand today now?Where do we stand today now?
Impact of climate policies on emission trends in EU-15 ('Bubble'), (most recent data of 2002)
9092949698
100102104106108110
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
year
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iss
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Business as usual
with actual policymeasures
with envisaged policymeasures
Linear Kyoto Path
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 6
Where do we stand today now- EU10 Where do we stand today now- EU10
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 7
Where do we stand today now- EU25 Where do we stand today now- EU25
Figure 1:Actual and projected emissions for EU-25 and EU-15
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EU-25 emissions
EU-25 existing measures
EU-25 additionalmeasuresEU-15 emissions
EU-15 existing measures
EU-15 additionalmeasuresEU-15 target (Kyoto)
EU-15 target + KyotomechanismsBusiness as usual
Linear target path
Kyoto mechanisms
Note: Data exclude emissions and removals from land-use change and forestry.The figure refers to a theoretical EU-25 base-year as 100 in order to allow a consistent analysis of greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.This base-year for EU-25 has no legal status.It is 1990 for most Member States for CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) but 1995 for fluorinated gases, with the following exceptions: The base year for CO2, CH4 and N2O for Hungary is the average of 1985-1987, for Slovenia 1986 and for Poland 1988; the base year for fluorinated gases is 1990 for France and Finland.This means that the value for 1990 is not exactly 100.Cyprus and Malta are not included due to lack of data and because they do not have targets under the Kyoto Protocol. The linear target path shows the theoretical linear decrease in GHG emissions up to the Kyoto target from the base year level until 2010, the mid-term year of the first commitment period.
Source: EEA, 2005
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 8
The 550ppm scenario: Cut global emission The 550ppm scenario: Cut global emission by 15-20% by 2050 as compared to 1990by 15-20% by 2050 as compared to 1990
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Baseline
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S650e
Source: GCNRS/LEPII-EPE/RIVM/MNP/ICCS-NTUA/CES-KUL study
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 9
major impacts on future energy systems major impacts on future energy systems
Source: GCNRS/LEPII-EPE/RIVM/MNP/ICCS-NTUA/CES-KUL study
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 10
Energy efficiency is key in reducing Energy efficiency is key in reducing global GHG emissions global GHG emissions
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 11
ECCP: Most important EU legislation in implementation relating to climate change
PAMPAM Reducion Reducion potential (Mt potential (Mt CO2-eq.)CO2-eq.)
Entry into forceEntry into force Starting to Starting to deliverdeliver
EU emission trading schemeEU emission trading scheme -- 20032003 20052005
Link JI/CDM to emission tradingLink JI/CDM to emission trading -- 20042004 2005/2005/20082008
Revision of the Monitoring DecisionRevision of the Monitoring Decision -- 20042004 --
Dir. on the promotion of CHPDir. on the promotion of CHP 6565 20042004 20062006
Dir. on energy performance of buildingsDir. on energy performance of buildings 35-4535-45 20032003 20062006
Dir. on the promotion of transport bio-fuelsDir. on the promotion of transport bio-fuels 35-4035-40 20032003 20052005
Dir. on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy Dir. on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sourcessources
100-125100-125 20012001 20032003
Landfill directiveLandfill directive 4141 19991999 20002000
ACEA voluntary agreementACEA voluntary agreement 75-8075-80 19981998 19991999
Energy labelling directivesEnergy labelling directives 2020 19921992 19931993
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 12
Develop new technologies: Reverse spending on Develop new technologies: Reverse spending on international R&D for energyinternational R&D for energy
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 13
EU agricultural emissions decreased EU agricultural emissions decreased 8% in 1990 -20018% in 1990 -2001
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 14
post 2012 : objective and processpost 2012 : objective and process
EU goal : limit global warming to 2°CEU goal : limit global warming to 2°C European Spring Council March 2005: European Spring Council March 2005:
““looks forward to considering medium and longer term emission looks forward to considering medium and longer term emission reduction strategies, including targets” / Commission is invited “to reduction strategies, including targets” / Commission is invited “to prepare a report on benefits and costs taking account both of prepare a report on benefits and costs taking account both of environmental and competitiveness considerations”environmental and competitiveness considerations”
ISC group on post 2012ISC group on post 2012 stakeholder consultation (170 replies in total, stakeholder consultation (170 replies in total,
including CEPF, future forests, CEPI)including CEPF, future forests, CEPI) Commission report to be issued in January 2005Commission report to be issued in January 2005
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 15
issues post 2012 & agriculture & issues post 2012 & agriculture & forestry sectorforestry sector
climate change impacts : EU & world-climate change impacts : EU & world-wide (costs of non action)wide (costs of non action)
adaptation : EU & world-wideadaptation : EU & world-wide LULUCF (deforestation, sinks) LULUCF (deforestation, sinks) mitigation strategies : bio-energy as a CO2 mitigation strategies : bio-energy as a CO2
neutral energy sourceneutral energy source
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 16
agricultural & forestry sector & climate agricultural & forestry sector & climate change change
nitrates directive nitrates directive RES-E Directive RES-E Directive biofuels directivebiofuels directive Common Agricultural Policy – set aside and Common Agricultural Policy – set aside and
energy crops schemeenergy crops scheme Rural Development Policy (forestry)Rural Development Policy (forestry)looking forward : looking forward : Biomass action Plan Biomass action Plan Structural & Cohesion Funds 2007-2013Structural & Cohesion Funds 2007-2013 Future 2020 targets for RES?Future 2020 targets for RES?
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 17
ETS & (biomass) renewablesETS & (biomass) renewables
one uniform price/ EU market for COone uniform price/ EU market for CO22
allowances…allowances… affecting the competitive situation of the affecting the competitive situation of the
various primary energy sources various primary energy sources renewables get cost advantage as they do renewables get cost advantage as they do
not need to surrender COnot need to surrender CO22 allowances allowances
liberalisation opens market for innovative liberalisation opens market for innovative suppliers, eg. renewablessuppliers, eg. renewables
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 18Source: Point Carbon's Carbon Market Daily
3 October 2005EUA 2005 (€/tCO2)
€22.75
Traded Volumes, January 2004 - August 2005
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European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 19
ETS & (biomass) renewablesETS & (biomass) renewables
impact on improved competitiveness of bio-impact on improved competitiveness of bio-energy depends on allowance price (scarcity)energy depends on allowance price (scarcity)
expected moderate prices in first trial period will expected moderate prices in first trial period will bring limited incentives, but :bring limited incentives, but : can tip the balance for near competitive applications raises awareness of carbon constraint and search for
alternatives to fossil fuels comes on top of other dedicated instruments (eg. RES-
E) … and high oil prices
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 20
ETS & (biomass) renewablesETS & (biomass) renewables
short term direct impacts: short term direct impacts: increased use of co-firing in coal power plants increased use of biomass in pulp&paper
longer term : allowance price impacts on longer term : allowance price impacts on investments decisions; make or buy decision for energy usersemergence of new “low carbon energy”
suppliers
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 21
JI/CDM link to ETSJI/CDM link to ETS
An indirect link exists as of 2008 through An indirect link exists as of 2008 through international emissions tradinginternational emissions trading
Linking proposal: to provide more flexibility Linking proposal: to provide more flexibility and certainty to legal entitiesand certainty to legal entities
In concrete terms, linking means that JI/CDM In concrete terms, linking means that JI/CDM credits can be used by operators to fulfil their credits can be used by operators to fulfil their domestic obligationdomestic obligation
Linking implies the recognition of JI/CDM Linking implies the recognition of JI/CDM credits as equivalent to allowancescredits as equivalent to allowances
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 22
JI/CDM link to ETSJI/CDM link to ETS
avoiding double counting : no ERUs for installations avoiding double counting : no ERUs for installations covered by the Directivecovered by the Directive
Baseline takes into account environmental acquis in Baseline takes into account environmental acquis in EU and accession countriesEU and accession countries
provisions for control of MS which projects “come provisions for control of MS which projects “come in”in”
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 23
bio-energy scenario 2010 – 2020 :bio-energy scenario 2010 – 2020 : GHG emission reductions GHG emission reductions
http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy/res/sectors/doc/bioenergy/bioenergy_role_2000_2010_2020.pdf
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 24
bio-energy scenario 2020 : energybio-energy scenario 2020 : energy
European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 25
outlook for bio-energyoutlook for bio-energy
Review RES-E DirectiveReview RES-E Directive Biomass action Plan Biomass action Plan Common Agricultural Policy & Rural Common Agricultural Policy & Rural
Development PolicyDevelopment Policy Structural&Cohesion Funds 2007-2013Structural&Cohesion Funds 2007-2013 Future 2020 targets for RESFuture 2020 targets for RES
09/2005Slide 26
Well-to-Wheels analysis Well-to-Wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and of future automotive fuels and powertrainspowertrainsin the European contextin the European context
A joint study by A joint study by EUCAR / JRC / CONCAWEEUCAR / JRC / CONCAWE
Overview of ResultsOverview of Results
09/2005Slide 27
General Observations: CostsGeneral Observations: Costs
A shift to renewable / low carbon sources is currently costlyA shift to renewable / low carbon sources is currently costly However, high cost does not always result in high GHG emission
reductions At comparable costs GHG savings can vary considerably
The cost of COThe cost of CO22 avoidance using conventional biofuels is around avoidance using conventional biofuels is around
150-300 €/ton CO2 when oil is at 25 €/bbl
50-200 €/ton CO2 when oil is at 50 €/bbl
Syn-diesel, DME and ethanol from wood have the potential to save Syn-diesel, DME and ethanol from wood have the potential to save substantially more GHG emissions than current bio-fuel options at substantially more GHG emissions than current bio-fuel options at comparable or lower cost per tonne of COcomparable or lower cost per tonne of CO22 avoided. avoided.
Issues such as land and biomass resources, material collection, plant size, efficiency and costs, may limit the application of these processes
09/2005Slide 28
Potential of biomass residuesPotential of biomass residues
Availability of biomass for Availability of biomass for biofuelsbiofuels is less than for is less than for bio-energybio-energy:: Advanced biofuels plants need to be large for reasonable economics Crop residues are mostly highly dispersed: better suited to local heating.
STRAW is the most concentrated residueSTRAW is the most concentrated residue can be taken when soil water-retention is not critical that means in the best cereals-growing areas: 37% of EU 25 wheat Straw/grain ratio about 0.65 in these high-yield regions total about 600 PJ/y
FOREST RESIDUALS cost rises steeply with transport distanceFOREST RESIDUALS cost rises steeply with transport distance above 365 PJ/y in EU 25 it becomes more expensive than pulp wood practically all wood-industry waste is recycled inside the industry
BIOGAS availability depends on price: BIOGAS availability depends on price: much of the potential feedstock is too dispersed for economic plant size
09/2005Slide 29
Alternative use of primary energy resources - Alternative use of primary energy resources - BiomassBiomass
Wood gasification or direct use of biomass for heat and power offers greatest GHG savings
Potential for CO2 avoidance from 1 ha of land
Reference case:
2010 ICE with
Conventional fuel
COCO22 savings per hectare savings per hectare are better for advanced are better for advanced biomass than ethanol or biomass than ethanol or biodieselbiodiesel
Using biomass for Using biomass for electricity generation electricity generation offers even greater offers even greater savingssavings
-5
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-H2,
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/ h
a/a
Electricity
Wood processing
Conventional biofuels
09/2005Slide 30
ConclusionsConclusions
A shift to renewable/low fossil carbon routes may offer a significant GHG reduction A shift to renewable/low fossil carbon routes may offer a significant GHG reduction potential but generally requires more energy. The specific pathway is criticalpotential but generally requires more energy. The specific pathway is critical
No single fuel pathway offers a short term route to high volumes of “low carbon” fuel.No single fuel pathway offers a short term route to high volumes of “low carbon” fuel. Contributions from a number of technologies/routes will be needed. A wider variety of fuels may be expected in the market Blends with conventional fuels and niche applications should be considered if
they can produce significant GHG reductions at reasonable cost Transport applications may not maximize the GHG reduction potential of renewable Transport applications may not maximize the GHG reduction potential of renewable
energiesenergies Optimum use of renewable energy sources such as biomass and wind requires Optimum use of renewable energy sources such as biomass and wind requires
consideration of the overall energy demand including stationary applicationsconsideration of the overall energy demand including stationary applications More efficient use of renewables may be achieved through direct use as
electricity rather than road fuels applications
09/2005Slide 31
The study report will be available on the WEB:The study report will be available on the WEB:
http://http://ies.jrc.cec.eu.inties.jrc.cec.eu.int/WTW/WTW
For For questions / inquiries / requests / notesquestions / inquiries / requests / notes
to the consortium, to the consortium,
please use the centralised mail address:please use the centralised mail address:
[email protected]@jrc.it
Well-to-Wheels analysis Well-to-Wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrainsof future automotive fuels and powertrainsin the European contextin the European context