EUROPEAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE STUDY OF … 2... · Mauro Schiavella1,2, Matteo Pelagatti3, Gabriele...

Corresponding author: Mauro Schiavella <[email protected]> <[email protected]>

11th European Conference on Gambling Studies and Policy Issues

Development of the invisible and unknown:Research, Responsibilities and Regulation

Thursday the 15th of September – Afternoon Session 2

RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING TOOLS AND HOW TO USE THEM

13-16 September 2016InterContinentalLisbon, Portugal

EUROPEAN ASSOCIATION

FOR THE STUDY OF GAMBLING

PokerMapper: Mapping executive functions, poker playing ability and

responsible gambling in online environmentsMauro Schiavella1,2, Matteo Pelagatti3, Gabriele Lepore2,4, Jerker Westin2, Paolo Cherubini5

1 B-ASC Bicocca Applied Statistics Center, University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy 2School of Technology and Business Studies, Computer Engineering, Dalarna University, Sweden

3Department of Economics, Management and Statistics, University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy4SISAL Poker Team Pro, Italy

5Department of Psychology, University of Milano-Bicocca


1. Are there more gamblers who are unable to play responsibly in specific moments than those who can now be detected?

2. Is it possible to improve the actual preventive strategies?






PROBLEM


1. FIRST OF ALL I will focus on the questions I addressed you

2. THEN I will explain our solution to both issues

3. THIS WILL LEAD TO present you PokerMapper, our last research

4. AND FINALLY I will provide you with a summary of everything I have covered






OUTLINE OF THIS TALK


ASSESSMENT OF THE GAMBLING RISK LEVEL

The inability to gamble responsibly is assessed by detecting specific dysfunctional behaviours

• Self-reported questionnaires (SOGS, PGSI)

• Interviews conducted by specialists using diagnostic manuals (DSM-5; ICD-10)

• Proactive tools used by gambling providers, based on the analysis of customers’ gambling behaviour






INTRO



EXECUTIVE FUNCTIONS (EF) are higher-level cognitive abilities monitoring and regulating the behaviour (e.g., planning, problem solving, decision-making, response inhibition)They are:

- entailed in playing a game and gambling responsibly- impaired in many conditions, temporary and permanent

acute and chronic stress, chronic alcohol consumption, drug and gambling addictions, personality disorders, behavioural disorders, mood disorders, neurological disorders, mental disorders.

Millions of people suffer from these conditions. Disordered gamblers are just a minority!






PROBLEM



ANSWER: there is an unknown amount of gamblers who cannot play

responsibly even if they have not yet developed a gambling disorder or

a problem gambling, because they experience one or more of those

temporary and permanent conditions.






PROBLEM



Existing tools that try to prevent and limit problem and disordered

gambling work by monitoring and evaluating past gaming and

gambling habits and by providing the users with information and

opportunities to change behaviour while playing.






PROBLEM



ANSWER: the actual preventive tools, based on behaviour analysis,

cannot impede financial ruin of some users, because the gamblers could

develop problem behaviour before the software application is able to detect

problems in their gambling history database.






PROBLEM


Our main idea is to create an innovative software system based on

cognitive profiling (executive functions), able to evaluate the users’ EF

performance before they begin playing and to immediately give feedbacks

both on the ability to play that game and to gamble responsibly.






OUR SOLUTION TO BOTH ISSUES


Core of the software system: the User Dynamic Cognitive Profiling (UDCP).

We will design, develop, implement and evaluate quick and concise

cognitive tasks. These tasks will take only few minutes to be performed.

The obtained outcomes will be collected to build the UDCP,

a feedback module able to immediately give information on the players’ actual

and historical EF performance, including the ability to play responsibly.






UNDERLYING TECHNOLOGY


Funded by Svenska Spel Research Council (Sweden), Milano-Bicocca (Italy)and Dalarna Universities (Sweden).

Starting point: poker and responsible gambling both entail the use of the executive functions (EF).

Primary objective: assessing if online poker players of different abilityshowed different performance in their EF and if so, which functionswere the most discriminating ones.

Secondary objective: to assess if the EF performance could predict thequality of gambling, according to self-reported questionnaires(PGSI, SOGS, GRCS).






POKERMAPPER: A PRELIMINARY STUDY


Starting point: poker and responsible gamblingboth entail the use of the executive functions (EF),which are higher-level cognitive abilities.

Primary objective: assessing if online pokerplayers of different ability show differentperformances in their EF and if so, which functionsare the most discriminating ones.

Secondary objective: to assess if the EFperformance can predict the quality of gambling,according to self-reported questionnaires (PGSI,SOGS, GRCS).

Sample and Methods

Research objectives Results Conclusions

Next step

Tests acronymsCOGST Cognitive Estimates TestCRT Cognitive Reflection TestDIGIT Digit Span EQIS Emotional Quotient Inventory ShortFAB Frontal Assessment Battery FDCT Free Drawn Clock Test FLUP Phonemic Verbal Fluency TestFLUS Semantic Verbal Fluency Test GRCS Gambling Related Cognition Scale

HAMA Hamilton Anxiety ScaleHAMD Hamilton Depression Scale IBQ Intertemporal Behavior QuestionnaireMAT Attentive MatricesMEMINT Memory with Interference PGSI Problem Gambling Severity IndexRSBQ Risk Seeking Behavior Questionnaire

SOGS South Oaks Gambling ScreenSPM Raven’s Standard Progressive Matrices STROOP Color Word Interference Test TMT Trail Making Test TOL Tower of LondonWCST Wisconsin Card Sorting Test

Designing, constructing and evaluating an IT systemable to dynamically profile EF and provide playerswith a feedback on their expected performance andability to gamble responsibly in that particularmoment.

COGNITIVE TASKS INTO THE GAME ENVIRONMENT EF PROFILE

BY THE IT SYSTEM

WHAT ABOUT A PAUSE?

CHANGE BEHAVIOUR

EF PERFORMANCE BELOW CERTAIN

VALUES

IMMEDIATE FEEDBACK TO

THE USER36 of them (10ST, 16MD, 10WK) accepted to beadministered with an extensive neuropsychologicaltest battery by a blinded trained professional.

n M F Age Edu

36 31

5 33±7

15±3

n M F Age Edu

46

41 5 32±7

14,8±3

STEP 2

We tested which of the intermediate and finalvariables (511) of the psy-tests correlated withpoker ability and gambling quality scores.We tested the equality of the means across groupsusing a nonparametric version of MANOVA.We used stepwise regression methods andregression trees to select the more related variables.



PROFILE OF THE RESPONSIBLEONLINE POKER PLAYER

EmotionalIntelligence

EQISEmotional

self-awareness

EQIS

Happinessand

OptimismEQIS

Ability to delay

gratificationIBQ

Higherlevel of

educationLower

erroneousgambling

related cognitions

GRCS

AnxietyHAMA

Generatingappropriate

searching strategyFLUS

Motor Programming

FAB

Certain gain rather than higher

expected valuegain RSBQ

Stress management

EQIS

Goal settingTOL

PROFILE OF THE STRONGONLINE POKER PLAYER

FluidIntelligence

SPMSustainedAttention

SPM

Strategic behavior

TOL

Problemsolving

TOL

Planning TOL

Goal setting

TOLStress

Management EQIS

Social SkillsEQIS

AdaptabilityEQIS

ResponseInhibition

IBQ

DeductivereasoningCOGST

Evaluation AccuracyCOGST

Self-monitoring

COGST

EF test results can discriminate between strong andweak players. They can also separate responsibleand non-responsible players.

We found no correlations between ability to playpoker and responsible gambling and between abilityto play poker and depression and anxiety.

The strong player and the responsible player bothhave the ability to manage stress (impulse controland stress tolerance) and to set goals (initiating,planning, problem solving, strategic behavior).

Through this preliminary study we gathered usefulinformation to develop the next stage of our project:the construction of short cognitive tasks using cardgames in online poker environments.

AcknowledgmentsWe thank all the institutions that funded thisresearch: Svenska Spel Research Council, DalarnaUniversity, University of Milan-Bicocca.We express our gratitude to our technologicalpartner, Nordforce Technology AB, and to our mediapartner, Il Giornale del Poker. We also thank theanonymous poker experts for their contribution.

NOT DISCRIMINATING

VisuospatialAttention

TMT

Spatial Planning TMT

Motor Speed TMT

AttentionShifting

TMT

WorkingMemory

DIGITMEMINT

DeductiveReasoning

COGST

NOT DISCRIMINATING

Education YEARS

Depression HAMD

Anxiety HAMA

Gambling relatedcognitions

GRCS

Gambling quality PGSI, SOGS

Risk seekingbehavior

RSBQ

Intertemporal Behavior

IBQ

Working Memory DIGIT, MEMINT

Sensitivity to interference

FAB, MEMINT,STROOP

Praxic abilities FDCT

Attention Shifting TMT

STEP 3

46 fulfilled in a secure IT websystem the PGSI and uploadedtheir own hand history files,which were anonymized andevaluated by 3 poker experts.

Call for volunteers on Poker forums and Facebook.

STEP 1

Strong = STMedium = MDWeak = WK

8%

22%

63

%

7% PGSIPROB

MD RISK

LOW RISK

NO PROB

NO PROB

50%

36%

14%

SOGS

PROB

PAT

Further InformationSample: Italian online poker playersFunders’ nationality: Sweden, ItalyKeywords: online poker; executive functions,responsible gambling.

1 B-ASC Bicocca Applied Statistics Center, University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy 2School of Technology and Business Studies, Computer Engineering, Dalarna University,

Sweden 3Department of Economics, Management and Statistics, University of Milano-Bicocca 4SISAL Poker Team Pro, Italy 5Department of Psychology, University of Milano-Bicocca


Sample and Methods

36 of them (10ST, 16MD, 10WK) accepted to be administered with an extensiveneuropsychological test battery by a blinded trained professional.

n M F Age Edu

36 31 5 33±7

15±3

n M F Age Edu

46 41 5 32±7

14,8±3

STEP 2



Call for volunteers (at least 10.000 hands of cash poker in the last 3 months)on Poker forums and Facebook. 46 fulfilled in a secure IT web system the PGSI anduploaded their own hand history files, which were anonymized and evaluated by 3poker experts using a poker profiling software and referring to several statisticalindices of poker attributes.

STEP 1

Strong = STMedium = MDWeak = WK

8%

22%

63

%

7% PGSIPROB

MD RISK

LOW RISK

NO PROB

NO PROB50%

36%

14%SOGS

PROB

PAT



47%

53%

PGSIMD RISK

LOW RISK


Methods - Measures

• Wisconsin Card Sorting Test Computer Version (WCST)• Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB)• Free Drawn Clock Test (FDCT)• Raven’s Standard Progressive Matrices (SPM)• Phonemic and Semantic Verbal Fluency Test• Memory with Interference• Attentive Matrices• Digit Span (Forward and Back)• Trail Making Test (TMT-A and TMT-B)• Stroop Colour Word Interference Test• Cognitive Estimates• Tower of London• Emotional Quotient Inventory short (EQi-s)



STEP 2



• Frederick’s Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT)• Frederick’s Risk Seeking Behaviour Questionnaire (RSBQ)• Frederick’s Intertemporal Behaviour Task (IBQ)

• Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAM-D)• Hamilton Anxiety Scale (HAM-A)

Problem solving Strategic planning Organized searchingMental flexibilityResponse inhibitionFluid IntelligenceWorking memoryAttention shiftingSelf-monitoringEvaluation accuracyGoal settingStrategic behaviour….

ImpulsivityGratification delayRisk attitude

Mood


Methods – Statistical analysis

We tested which of the intermediate and final variables (511) of thepsy-tests correlated with poker ability and gambling quality scores.

Statistical problem:

• To identify significant relations between a response variable and a large number of candidate predictors

• The number of predictors (511) is much larger than the number of observations (36)

• The predictors are measured with errors (delay of time between poker and EF assessments). The relation between ability to play poker and EF performance is corrupted by a noise



STEP 3




Sample and Methods

Our strategy (1/2):

• stated the (theory-based) expected sign of the linear correlation between the response and each predictor (in few cases the expected sign could be unknown)

• computed all sample correlations between response variable and predictors and selected those predictors for which the modulus of the correlation coefficient was greater that a given threshold (we used 0.33, which is the approximate 95% critical value for the test of zero correlation under our sample size)

• for the selected predictors, counted the number of times the sample correlation sign was equal to the expected sign and tested (at an usual level) if this number of matches was not random.



STEP 3




Sample and Methods

Our strategy (2/2):

Moreover, in order to capture possible nonlinear relations and conditional dependences, we built a random forest (Breiman 2001) and found out which predictors were the most important by using variable importance (VIMP) as defined and analysed by Breiman (2001), Liaw and Wiener (2002), Ishwaran(2007) and Ishwaran et al. (2008), and minimal depth as in Ishwaran et al. (2010).

For all computations and plots we used R (R Core Team 2015) with the packages randomForestSRC (Ishwaran and Kogalur 2007; Ishwaran et al. 2008; Ishwaran and Kogalur 2016) and ggRandomForests (Ehrlinger 2015).



STEP 3




Results: poker ability

Tests acronymsCOGST Cognitive Estimates TestCRT Cognitive Reflection TestDIGIT Digit Span EQIS Emotional Quotient Inventory ShortFAB Frontal Assessment Battery FDCT Free Drawn Clock Test FLUP Phonemic Verbal Fluency TestFLUS Semantic Verbal Fluency Test

GRCS Gambling Related Cognition ScaleHAMA Hamilton Anxiety ScaleHAMD Hamilton Depression Scale IBQ Intertemporal Behavior QuestionnaireMAT Attentive MatricesMEMINT Memory with Interference PGSI Problem Gambling Severity Index

RSBQ Risk Seeking Behavior QuestionnaireSOGS South Oaks Gambling ScreenSPM Raven’s Standard Progressive Matrices STROOP Color Word Interference Test TMT Trail Making Test TOL Tower of LondonWCST Wisconsin Card Sorting Test



PROFILE OF THE STRONG ONLINE

POKER PLAYER

NOT DISCRIMINATING

Education YEARS

Depression HAMD

Anxiety HAMA

Gambling relatedcognitions

GRCS

Gambling quality PGSI, SOGS

Risk seekingbehavior

RSBQ

Intertemporal Behavior

IBQ

Working Memory DIGIT, MEMINT

Sensitivity to interference

FAB, MEMINT,STROOP

Praxic abilities FDCT


FluidIntelligence

SPM

SustainedAttention

SPM

Strategic behavior

TOL

Problemsolving

TOL

Planning TOL

Goal settingTOL

Stress Management

EQIS

Social SkillsEQIS

AdaptabilityEQIS

ResponseInhibition

IBQ

DeductivereasoningCOGST

Evaluation AccuracyCOGST

Self-monitoring

COGST

Able to think logically and solve problems in novel

situations.Independent of acquired

knowledge.Able to focus

attention on a task over time

Aware of what he knowsand able to make accurate

assessment of hisknowledge and/or skill

Moving from a givenstate to a desidered goal.Able to understand the problem goal and the

rules to be applied

Able to think about and organizing the activities

required to achieve a desidered goal

Includes:Initiating,

planning, problemsolving, strategic

behavior

Includes:stress tolerance and

impulse control

Interpersonal skills: social awarenessand intepersonal relationships.

Able to interact and communicatewith others

Able to changemanagement

Able to inhibitimpulsive/inappro

priate responses

“Top-down” logic:Reasoning from one or

more statements to reacha logically certain

conclusion

Able to providemeasurements of a quantity, that are

close to the true value

Able to select a more profitable strategy




Results: poker ability prediction






The two central groups were merged into just one

fair group

Computed just on the 10 best and 10 worst players of our sample

Prediction Poor Good

Poor 7 1

Good 3 9

Sensitivity 0.70

Specificity 0.90

Accuracy 0.80

Prediction Poor Fair Good

Poor 7 0 1

Fair 0 15 1

Good 3 1 8

Accuracy 0.83




Results: responsible gambling






PROFILE OF THE RESPONSIBLE

ONLINE POKER PLAYER

EmotionalIntelligence

EQIS

Emotionalself-

awarenessEQIS

Happinessand

OptimismEQIS

Ability to delay

gratificationIBQ

Higherlevel of

educationLower

erroneousgambling

related cognitions

GRCS

AnxietyHAMA

Generatingappropriate searching

strategy FLUS

Motor Programming

FAB

Certain gain rather than

higherexpected value

gain RSBQ

Stress management

EQIS

Goal setting

TOL

NOT DISCRIMINATING

VisuospatialAttention

TMT

Spatial Planning TMT

Motor Speed TMT


Working MemoryDIGIT

MEMINT

DeductiveReasoning

COGST

Includes:Initiating, planning,

problem solving, strategicbehavior

Includes:stress tolerance

and impulsecontrol

Able to effectively understand and express himself, understand others

and relate with them, and cope with daily demands.

Aware and ableto understand his

own emotions

Opt: Positive and looking atthe brighter side of life

Prefers patientchoices instead

of immetiategratifications

Measured in years

Includes:Initiating, planning, problem

solving, strategic behavior

The presence of anxiety seemsto be a protective factor

Less perseverative and non-perseverative errors in a fast verbal searching task

Able to programand control

motor actions

Less risk seekingwhen facing higherexpeted value gains

Hap: feels content with himself, others and

life in general




Results: responsible gambling prediction






Prediction No porb. Prob. Path.

No prob. 14 3 0

Problem 0 7 0

Pathological 4 3 5

Accuracy 0.72

Prediction Low Medium

Low risk 15 0

Medium risk 2 19

Sensitivity 0.88

Specificity 1.00

Accuracy 0.94




Conclusions



EF test results can discriminate between strong and weak players. They can alsoseparate responsible and non-responsible players.

We found no correlations between ability to play poker and responsible gamblingand between ability to play poker and depression and anxiety.

The strong player and the responsible player both have the ability to manage stress(impulse control and stress tolerance) and to set goals (initiating, planning, problemsolving, strategic behavior).

EF tests separated poker players on the basis of their poker ability classes(accuracy=0.83) and gambling quality classes (PGSI accuracy=0.94; SOGSaccuracy=0.72). In the GRCS tree, EF variables divided the sample in 4 classes ofirrational beliefs (cognitive distortions) related to gambling (lowest=8, low=13,medium=8, high=7).

Through this preliminary study we gathered useful information to develop the nextstage of our project: the construction of short cognitive tasks in online pokerenvironments.




Next step



Designing, constructing and evaluating an IT system able to dynamicallyprofile EF and provide players with a feedback on their expected performanceand ability to gamble responsibly in that particular moment.

COGNITIVE TASKS INTO THE GAME ENVIRONMENT

EF PROFILEBY THE IT SYSTEM

WHAT ABOUT A PAUSE?

CHANGE BEHAVIOUR

EF PERFORMANCE BELOW CERTAIN VALUES

IMMEDIATE FEEDBACK TO THE

USER






Summary

• Responsible Gambling tool are currently based on behaviour analysis

• It is necessary to innovate RG tools

• Cognitive profiling (EF) can be the solution since EF can discriminatebetween responsible and non-responsible gamblers

• Cognitive profiling (EF) could detect impairment of EF due to temporary andpermanent conditions






Acknowledgments

We thank all the institutions that funded this research:• Svenska Spel Research Council• Dalarna University,• University of Milano-Bicocca.

We express gratitude to our partners• Nordforce Technology AB• Il Giornale del Poker, Media Partner.

We also thank the “anonymous” poker experts for their contribution.

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION



EUROPEAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE STUDY OF … 2... · Mauro Schiavella1,2, Matteo Pelagatti3, Gabriele...

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