European Apple & Pear Outlook 2012

Philippe Binard World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA)

www.wapa-association.org

Plan of the presentation

Forecast 2012EU 27 main trends Review by States and regions : Europe at large Southern Hemisphere & global balance

Market outlook 2012/2013 ( EU-27)

EUROPEAN APPLE FORECAST 2012: MAIN TRENDS EUROPEAN UNION (EU-27)

European 2012 crop forecast EU-27 (EU-27 population = 501.1 mln)

• EU Production (20 States) set to be at 9.705.000 T + ca 100.000 T in non-participating States countries (7)

• 2012 production (ranked 8th in decade overview ) – decade av = 10.5 Mln T • Forecast = optimistic view?

Early spring followed by several frostsWet springDrought in several regionsHeavy summer hails stormsNormal harvest date Balanced fluctuations still possible ( up Poland down elswhere )

Year in 000 T 2004 11.5602008 11.4762003 11.0482009 10.9482011 10.6642005 10.6172006 10.226

2012 9.7052010 9.6512007 9.091

Production by region 2011SHARE 2012SHARE VAR IN %Western EU 6.904 54,06% 5.560 47,51% -6,55%Eastern EU 3.760 29,44% 4.145 35,20% 5,76%Eastern non EU 2.106 16,49% 2.036 17,29% 0,80%Total 12.770 11.741

2012 crop forecast EU-27: an overview

PL, SK, CZ, HU = increasing production in 2012 PL = only country above YAGO and 3 years average

+ Russia , TK,..... Grd total Europe cont. > 16 Mln T

2012 crop forecast EU-27 – overview by varieties

Varieties in 000 T 2012Golden 2.213Other varieties 1.295Gala 1.061Idared 863Red Del 556Jonagold 466Shampion 410New varieties 378Elstar 334Jonagored 311Granny 305Braeburn 266Fuji 222Gloster 176Jonathan 164Cripps pink 150Reinette 70Cox orange 68Imperatore 63Boskoop 59Bramley 57Lobo 50Cortland 40Red Jonaprince 38Pinova 37Annurca 35Stayman 13Spartan 6

APPLE FORECAST 2012: STATES/REGIONAL REVIEW EUROPE AT LARGE

Poland(population 38 mln)

– N°1 EU producer: 2.8 Mln T up by 12% compared to last year. Idared moving from 420.000 T to 570.000 T (+38%) and Gloster (+25%)

– Affected by climatic conditions, but new plantings bearing new fruit year on year and new storage capacities

– Spring delay but flowering was hot and short – mid May, some frost– July was hot and with storms, hail damages => Increase percentage going to

processing, more volume going to processing than to fresh

Production Fresh Processed Total 2011 1.375 1.125 2.5002012 1.260 1.540 2.800

+12 %+12%+36%

2.800.000 TTowards 3 Million ?

Italy(population 60 mln)

– Production below 2 Mln T, one of the smallest crops, while last year was the largest crop of the decade (frost on 17 April up to -4°C, unfavourable blossoming, hail...)

– Russeting present due to cold climate during fruit setting but not widespread – 1 week later on 2011 – back to normal

in 000 T 2011 2012VARAlto Adige 1180 998 -15%Trentino 504 449 -11%Other regions 606 540 -10%TOTAL 2290 1987 -13%

- 11%- 15%

- 10%

1.987.000T

France(population 64 mln)

– Significant frost damages and cold/rain during blossoming • Most affected Limousin (impact on golden), part of north regions (impact on

Boskoop and Jonagold)• Intermediate situation: South West, Loire, Alps (ca -15 to -20%) • Not affected: Provence and Languedoc will be normal => start of French season

quick off under normal conditions with Gala and Pink lady , less affected – Calendar of harvest to start as normal in South France– Sufficient volume for domestic market

in 000 T 2011 2012VAR

France 1.701 1.169 -31%

TOTAL 1.701 1.169 -31%

1.169.000T

Germany (population 81 mln)

– Production at 933.000 T down by 2% to last year, differences by region. Bodensee not N° 1 region.

– Several nights with frost in spring, affecting a.o. Elstar (-16%) and Jonagold/Jonagored (-11%)

– Some severe recent damage in Bodensee affecting 20.000 to 30.000 T – all varieties affected in Bodensee except Red Jonaprince and Topaz

– On-going increasing surface of Kanzi

in 000 T 2011 2012 VARNiederelbe 280 285 2%Bodensee 310 255 -18%Sachsen 95 88 -7%Rheinland 59 46 -22%Other regions 209 259 24%TOTAL 953 933 -2%

- 18 %

- 22 %

- 7 %

+ 2%

other+

24%

933.000T

Alpine countries(population 16.3 mln)

Austria (population 8.3 mln) – Frost, hail and storm leading to severe punctual damages and reduction by 23% of

production to 153.000 T– 3 frosts on 01/04, 09/04 and 18/05 – some orchards 100% damaged – Braeburn and Gala less affected (only 15% less)

Switzerland (population 8 mln) – Production at 146.000 T down by 6% to previous year

in 000 T 2011 2012 VARSwitzerland 155 146 -6%

Austria 199 153 -23%

TOTAL 354 299 -16%

- 23%- 6%

146.000T

153.000T

Benelux(population 27.3 mln)

Belgium (population 10.8 mln) – The lowest crop of the decade by far: -30% at 212.000 T, also ongoing decrease of apples orchard (3.6%) – Warm in January followed by extreme cold in February (-16°C), March dry and April rainy and cold with

some night frost on 31/03 and 01/04, June rainy– Fruit size to be normal if enough rain in July and August , harvesting at normal date

The Netherlands (population 16.5 mln) – Crop significantly down by 25% to reach 313.000 T – Some difference by regions, the South being overall better and less

affected by short but heavy cold period. In North , damage up to 80% – For club varieties, higher acreage in production will compensate

the lower productivity

in 000 T 2011 2012VAR

Belgium 305 212 -30%

Netherlands 418 320 -23%

TOTAL 723 532 -26%

- 25%

- 30%

212.000T

313.000T

UK and Ireland(population 66.4 mln)

UK (population 62 mln) – Production down by 28% at 163.000 T– All varieties are declining (25% or more, apart from Gala, -3% at 38.000 T). Expected large

volume to processing (up to 45% compared to 39% last year) – Temperature well below average except 10 days in mid May . West Midlands affected by frost

early May and hail . Summer: wet and cold . Conditions ideal for scab and mildew and spray difficult given regular rain and wet conditions in orchards

– Harvesting back to normal but 3 weeks later than last year

Ireland (population 4.4 mln) – No industry data and official census only every 5 years – Production around 40.000 T

in 000 T 2011 2012VARUK 226 191 -15%

Ireland 40 40 0%

TOTAL 266 231 -13%- 28%

40.000 T

163.000 T

Nordic and Baltic(population 31.9 mln)

Denmark (population 5.5 mln) – Crop to 2010 at 18.000 T– Elstar main variety, but down by 20%, Jonagored affected up to 30%, Cox orange reduced by 15%

Sweden (population 9.3 mln) – Crop at 14.000 T– Mixed orchard of new varieties (up by 33%) while all other are down

Latvia (population 2.2 mln) – Poor flowering leading and frost in end of May lead to a smaller crop of 7.000 T out of which 50%

for processing

Lithuania (population 3.3 mln) – Crop at 39.000 T Some new plantings with Lithuanian varieties– Heat wave end of April (29°C) and some hail damages – Summer variety: pick with one week of delay

in 000 T 2011 2012VARDenmark 20 18 -10%Sweden 17 14 -18%Lithuania 49 39 -20%Latvia 8 7 -13%Estonia 6 6 0%Finland 4 4 0%TOTAL 94 78 -17%

- 18%

- 10% - 13%

-20%

14.000T

18.000T

7.000T

39.000T

Iberian Peninsula(population 55.6 mln)

Spain (population 45 mln) – Production at peak low of the decade at 373.000 T, -26%– Low temperatures and rainfall during flowering – Catalonia affected by severe hail on 5 & 27 July in Lleida – Girona keeps growing: 37% of Catalonia production– Season, delay by 5-7 days

Portugal (population 10.6 mln) – Production down by 15% at 225.000 T on 20.205 Ha– Impact of drought (44% of orchard under extreme drought and 30% in severe drought), poor pollination and fruit set

in 000 T 2011 2012VARSPAIN 507 373 -26%

Portugal 265 225 -15%

TOTAL 772 598 -22%

- 15%

- 26%

225.000T373.000T

Central Europe(population 25.9 mln)

Hungary (population 10 mln) – Despite increasing volume to 418.000 T, crop remained below potential (frost in Easter

@-10°C) - Jonathan, Jonagold and Idared are the most affected – % to industry decrease from 53% to 51% but volume is larger (213.000 T)

Czech Republic (population 10.5 mln) – Production move to 101.000 T despite spring damage and below average temperatures– 5 days early than average

Slovakia (population 5.4 mln) – Production at 36.000 T higher than av & last year

in 000 T 2011 2012 VARCzech Rep 79 101 28%Slovakia 33 36 9%Hungary 301 418 39%TOTAL 413 555 26%

+ 28%

+9%

+39%

PROGNOSFRUIT 2013PRAGUE, 8 AUGUST

101.000T

36.000T

418.000T

South East Europe(population 40.2mln)

Greece (population 11.3 mln) – Smaller crop than final 2011 output by 2% => Fluctuation of climatic conditions with reduced

flowering and poor fruit setting in some areas– Expected normal sizing, harvest could be up to one week earlier than last season – Orchard evolution: declining local varieties but also for Granny and Jonagold

Romania (population 21.4 mln) – Slight decrease by 2% at 401.500 T – Higher volume to processing 28% v 25% => total fresh volume 289.000 T v 309.000 T last year – Main varieties: Jonathan and Golden ca 105.000 T each – No spring frost, some drought in June and July – Expected normal sizing

in 000 T 2011 2012VARGreece 305 298 -2%Romania 412 402 -2%Bulgaria 40 40 0%TOTAL 757 740 -2%

298.000 T

402.000T

-2%

- 2%

40.000T

Balkans (population 24.2 mln)

Slovenia (population 2 mln) – 45.000 T, -38%, the smallest crop of last 10 years due to climate (frost) . Limited number of new plantings– Normal harvesting date . More to processing despite smaller crop (from 20 to 30%)

Croatia (population 4.2 mln) JOINING EU 1 JULY 2013– Frost in April and May, hail in June, high t° in July => lower crop at 59.000 T – Harvest a few days earlier. Reduced share for processing (down from 42% to 30%)

Macedonia (population 2 mln) – Large crop, no frost, 7 days delay over 800m, large size. Less volume

to processing (13% v 15%), Idared = 72% of production.

Serbia (population 7.1 mln) – Small crop 221.000 T, Idared main affected variety -35%, other -6%

Bosnia (population 3.8 mln) – Significant deficit of production (-63%) to 17.322 T due to frost

in 000 T 2011 2012VARSlovenia 73 45 -38%Bosnia Herz 46 17 -63%Croatia 88 59 -33%FYROM 128 140 9%Serbia 260 221 -15%TOTAL 595 482 -19%

- 15%- 33%

- 38%

- 63%

+9%

45.000T

59.000T

221.000T17.000T

140.000T

EU Eastern neighbours (population 274.2 mln)

Belarus (population 9.5 mln) – Lower crop at 171.000 T due to frost damage affecting mainly new continental varieties.

Moldova (population 3.5 mln) – Severe drought reducing productivity by 20% but compensated by new plantings (+15%):

crop down by 5% in total

Ukraine (population 45.7 mln) – Traditional frost damages avoided + new areas with intensive orchard (+1%) combined with

increased yield (+4%) – total surface: 106.000 HA

Russia (population 141.9 mln) – Industry statistics at 1.622.000 T on 250.000 HA

Turkey (population 73.6 mln) – Ideal blossoming conditions, little hail and no droughts – Production slightly up by 1%

- 5%

- 8 %

+4%

+8%in 000 T 2011 2012 VARBelarus 180 171 -5%Moldova 350 322 -8%Ukraine 1054 1096 4%Russia 1500 1622 8%Turkey 2352 2365 1%TOTAL 5436 5576 3%

+1%

1.622.000T

1.096.000T

171.000T

322.000T

2.365.000T

No stocks either from AJC - strong market Apples for processing in selected countries estimated up by 28% despite

lower crop

EU Market outlook 2012-2013: demand for processing

2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012VAR Vol

Country Production % Processed Production % Processed

Poland 2.500 0,45 1.125 2.800 0,55 1.540 37%

Romania 411 0,25 103 401 0,28 112 9%

Hungary 301 0,53 160 418 0,51 213 34%

Uk 226 0,39 88 191 0,45 86 -2%

Macedonia 128 0,15 19 140 0,13 18 -5%

Croatia 87 0,42 37 58 0,3 17 -52%

Lithuania 49 0,6 29 39 0,6 23 -20%

Bosnia herz 46 0,15 7 17 0,2 3 -51%

Latvia 8 0,5 4 7 0,5 4 -7%

Total 3.756 1.571 4.071 2.017 28%

Europe in summary

-22%

-31%

-28%

-26%-2%

-13%

-16%

-18%

-2%

- 17 %

+ 1 %

+4%

+8%

+12 %

+33%

-8%

- 5 %

APPLES PRODUCTION EUROPE : 16.1 Mln T)

(Population Europe: 808.6 Mln)

Southern Hemisphere & tentative 2012 global balance

• Southern hemisphere: Berlin WAPA forecast -3%

SHAFFE

Apple quantities (T)

CountryUp to week EU USA & Canada World

Export potential

Year 2011 2012 %12/11 2011 2012 %12/11 2011 2012 %12/11Argentina 28 45.191 31.106 -31% 1.637 3.127 91% 119.779 88.957 -26% 182.500

Brazil 36 40.497 54.269 34% 254 287 13% 52.609 58.939 12% 35.000

Chile 33 172.514 134.052 -22% 106.847 135.007 26% 738.979 649.815 -12% 806.000

New Zealand 35 145.566 117.523 -19% 38.017 37.667 -1% 288.366 274.318 -5% 300.096

South Africa 36 114.959 118.602 3% 2.417 2.072 -14% 251.155 269.471 7% 321.067

TOTAL 518.727 455.552 -12% 149.172 178.160 19% 1.450.888 1.341.500 -8% 1.644.663

Southern Hemisphere & tentative 2012 global balance

• Global overview 2012

in 000 T 2011 2012VAREU-27 10.663 9.739 -9%Other Europe 5.853 5.948 2%North America 5.264 4.322 -18%China 33.000 33.500 2%South Hem 5.639 5.457 -3%Total 60.419 58.966 -2%

-18 %-9 %

-2 %

+2%+2%

EUROPEAN PEAR FORECAST 2012: MAIN TRENDS EUROPEAN UNION(EU-27)

2012 crop forecast

• Production dramatically down to less than 2 mln T, the lowest in the past decade• 2012 production is 30% down last year and 26% down the last 3 years average

Year Prod in T 2006 2.6962011 2.6292009 2.6022002 2.5892004 2.5822005 2.5622007 2.5422003 2.4192010 2.275

2008 2.165

2012 1.844Average decade 2.446

Production for 2012 is forecasted to be at 1.844.000 T

2012 crop forecast – overview by MS

Up•CZ•HU•GR

Down• All other

2012 crop forecast – overview by varieties

…. All varieties are lower this year !

PEAR FORECAST 2012: STATES/REGIONAL REVIEWEUROPE AT LARGE

ITALY

• Italy : – Production record low – Large physiological drop – Abate, one of the most significant reduction (-55% ) – Some impact of the earthquake

South East

• Greece– Increase of the production to 43.000 T due to good climatic conditions prevailing from spring to June – No major concerns with psylla, which however is not the main cause for the lower crop – Size to be on average– Season to start one week earlier than last year– Krystalli pear represent 40 % of production

• Romania– 26.000 T, down 8% from 2011– No late frost but soil drought in June and July – 13 % of production for processing – Normal sizing – No evolution of orchard

• Spain– Production at 329.000 T (=new historic low)– All regions are decreasing except Murcia - Catalonia remains leader - affected by hail in July – On-going decline of Blanquilla (now 52.000 T compared to 200.000 T 10 years ago)– Conference larger variety at 136.000 T – Ercolini is the only “stable” variety

• Portugal– Data are those of Pera Rocha Association – set at 109.000 T a decline by 48% to last year– Low temperature during fruit set, low number of fruits per tree. Physiological drop normal – Medium size

South West

Benelux

• Belgium– Pear crop at 254.000 T . Complex climatic conditions in spring and summer – Conference is halted in its on-going development at 237.000 T – Some increase of pear orchard : + 3% ( more on conference representing 7.351 HA out of 8.579 HA) –Durondeau is

decreasing by 5% – Picking normal , 2 weeks later than 2011

• The Netherlands – Together with 2008, one of the lowest crop ever at 198.000 T : down by 41%– Conference is set this year at 165.000 T down from peak 260.000 T , while Doyenne the second variety is most affected

with a decline of production by 55% T– Differences in size, weak settings

UK and France

• France – Production at 123.000 T down by 30%– Williams and Guyot (both at 35.000 T) to be the two main varieties followed by Conference (19.000 T) – All affected by drop, respectively by 34%, 29% and 24%

• UK– Volume at 28.000 T, 12% down from last year and 3 year average– Season time is 3 week later – Concern about russet – Difference in size ; No homogeneity – Larger % of crop expected to go to processing (32%)

Qualitative remarks EU-27: Central and East

• Poland– While recovering from last year peak low, production remain moderate at 55.000 T – Orchard dominated by Conference (35.000 T)

• Germany – Low crop similar to small level of 2010 and 2008: Production forecasted at 38.000 T – Conference (9.000 T) and William BC (4.000 T) to be the main varieties

• Hungary – As with apples, slight recovery at 26.000 T, lower % going to industry (32%) but in total higher volume

(8.100 T) – Main variety is Bosc (8.500 T), followed by Williams (4.700 T)

2012 forecast – other NH countries & global overview

• Other European regions: -6%

• USA • down by ca 8% to total production but availability for fresh to be up by 9% • Winter pear up by 11% at 315.000 T; Williams / Bartletts continue to increase (up by 12%) at 128.000 T. Summer pears up 3% at 6.600 T • Smaller size due to cold wet spring – good colour. Delay in harvest by a week to 10 days•Organics = 3% of overall production

• Southern Hemisphere was down by 10%

•Global supply 2012 for selected countries down 4%

Other Europe 2011 F2012 varBelarus 60 57 -5%Bosnia 25 3 -88%Russia 50 50 0%Serbia 39 33 -15%Switzerland 26 15 -42%Turkey 360 370 3%Ukraine 153 141 -8%Total 713 669 -6%

North America 2011 F2012 varUSA 485 450 -8%Canada 9 6 -50%Total 494 456 -8%

Asia 2011 F2012 varChina 15.000 15.000 0%Total 15.000 15.000 0%

Southern Hemisphere 2011 F2012 Var Argentina 843 697 -17%Australia 130 124 -5%Chile 195 191 -2%New Zealand 11 10 1%South Africa 362 368 2%Total 1.541 1.390 -10%

World 2011 F2012 varEU 2629 2060 -22%Other Europe 713 669 -6%North America 494 456 -8%Asia 15.000 15.000 0%Southern Hemisphere 1.541 1.390 -10%Total 20.377 19.575 -4%

SH 2012 exportSHAFFE / WAPA forecast – Berlin February 2012 and trade development

Country (MT) 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2012 (1) (2) Argentina 447.959 460.000 392.700 454.271 407.731 -10% -6% Chile 126.631 126.554 114.358 132.679 134.031 1% 8% New Zealand 4.672 5.421 4.971 4.297 4.950 15% 1% South Africa 164.420 180.593 184.076 176.646 175.279 -1% -3%

TOTAL 617.178 646.141 581.861 635.347 721.991 14% 16%

SHAFFE

Pear quantities (T)

CountryUp to week EU USA & Canada World

Export potential

Year 2011 2012 %12/11 2011 2012%12/1

1 2011 2012%12/1

1Argentina 28 132.364 75.509 -43% 38.237 35.082 -8% 276.454 224.985 -19%

341.700Chile 33 49.209 46.789 -5% 18.241 15.670 -14% 125.173 118.579 -5%

134.031New Zealand 35 1.333 1.038 -22% 1.911 1.341 -30% 4.281 3.805 -11%

4.950South Africa 36 100.792 89.602 -11% 4.267 5.525 29% 155.051 150.965 -3%

175.279TOTAL 283.698 212.938 -25% 62.656 57.618 -8% 560.959 498.334 -11%

655.960

EU apple and pear supply 2012

• Total supply EU apple and pears, down 13% compared to 2011

Apple and pear 2011 2012 var EU apple 10.663,00 9.705,00 -9%EU pear 2.629,00 1.844,00 -30%Total 13.292,00 11.549,00 -13%

www.wapa-association.org www.prognosfruit.euphilippe@freshfel.org

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