EUROPEAN AERONAUTICS: A VISION FOR 2020

Meeting society’s needs and winning global leadership

REPORT OF THE GROUP OF PERSONALITIES

JANUARY 2001

KI-34-01-827-EN

-C

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Group of Personalities

Pedro Argüelles

Manfred Bischoff

Philippe Busquin

B.A.C. Droste

Sir Richard Evans

Walter Kröll

Jean-Luc Lagardère

Alberto Lina

John Lumsden

Denis Ranque

Søren Rasmussen

Paul Reutlinger

Sir Ralph Robins

Helena Terho

Arne Wittlöv

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Because aircraft are cleaner, safer and quieter, can fly, land and taxi

in all weather conditions and air traffic is very efficiently managed

Thanks to the efforts of all stakeholders

A world-class European aeronautics industry leads

in global markets for aircraft, engines and equipment

A Vision for 2020

Aircraft and an air transport system that are responding to society’s needs, despite a three-fold increase in air transport

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EUROPEAN AERONAUTICS: A VISION FOR 2020

1 Foreword by Philippe Busquin, European Commissioner for Research page 7

2 Air Transport and Aeronautics – Key Assets for the Future of Europe page 8

3 A Vision for European Aeronautics in 2020 page 12

3 1 Responding to society’s needs page 12

3 2 Securing global leadership page 15

3 3 Establishing supportive public policy and regulation page 16

3 4 Identifying the research agenda page 18

4 The Way Forward: Creating Partnership for Research and Innovation page 21

4 1We recommend page 24

4 2 Financing the vision page 26

4 3 Setting up milestones page 26

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Foreword by Philippe Busquin,European Commissioner for Research1

It is my pleasure to present what I believeis a landmark report in the history ofEurope's aeronautics. I hope it will be readnot only by the industry's stakeholders andby policy-makers in European and nationalinstitutions, but also by a broader public inwhose lives air transport now plays such animportant part.

In forming the Group of Personalities, I gavethem a deceptively simple task: to produce,in the context of implementing the Euro-pean Research Area, a vision for aeronauticsin the year 2020. This is not a distant dead-line but a sensible reflection of the leadtimes in the research, development andmanufacturing of many of the industry'sproducts and services. It seemed to me thatonly such a unique grouping could identify aformula for transforming the sector from afollower into a global leader over this period.

The industry must rise to this challenge andconfront the competitive pressures imposedon it both by the rapid development of glob-alisation and environmental needs. Since thisprocess is also fuelling such a strong growthin passenger demand that air traffic willtriple over the next 20 years, the Group'svision has had to encompass the air trans-port system and not just the manufacture ofaircraft and equipment.

That is why its members are drawn from theairport and airline sectors, regulators and airtraffic managers as well as from airframe,engine and equipment manufacturers. Theresults of their work have more than satis-fied my request for a thoughtful analysis ofhow a reorganisation of our research anddevelopment efforts could both better servesociety's needs and also strengthen a questfor global leadership. The way we do things

at the moment, at both national andEuropean levels, has failed to keep pace withchanges in the industry's own structures.

An inclusive vision is precisely what Europeneeds in order to arrive at a safe, efficientand environmentally-friendly air transportsystem that will strengthen the competitive-ness of its increasingly integrated economy.It will help to deliver European excellencewith a global dimension because that iswhat the market now requires.

The vision set down in the following pages is imaginative and ambitious without everstraying into science fantasy. Crucially, it callsfor a more strategic approach to the identi-fication of research priorities and new mech-anisms for forging a consensus amongstakeholders in pursuit of these priorities. It also proposes the launch of new forms ofcross-border collaboration in the applicationof research, with additional financial supportfrom the European Union.

European Aeronautics: A Vision for 2020provides rich material for a great debate onprecisely how the European dimension cangenerate more efficient and effectiveresearch for a sector that is crucialfor the continent's economic future. TheCommission will lead that debate and in ashort time draw the appropriate conclusions.Then it will be time for the Union and itsMember States to join aeronautics stake-holders in a new partnership dedicated tocapturing the vision described in this report.

Finally, I would like to thank all members ofthe Group for the time and attention theyhave devoted to this exercise and their com-mitment to see its conclusions implemented.

A unique groupingto chart a path fromfollower to globalleader

An inclusive visionto deliver Europeanexcellence with aglobal dimension

Rich material for agreat debate ongenerating efficientand effectiveresearch

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Air Transport and Aeronautics: Key Assets for the Future of Europe2

An outstanding contribution History does not lack for examples of giantleaps forward in science and technologythat subsequently transform human experi-ence and possibilities. But few have touchedmore lives than the invention of the aero-plane at the beginning of the last century.It has shrunk the planet, destroyed distanceand vastly expanded human mobility. Theresulting economic and social benefits havebeen immense.

Conquest of the skies has liberated us fromthe bonds imposed by geography, terrainand water. Air routes are the highways ofthe global economy, transporting peopleand goods over vast distances at greatspeed. Aviation has massively multiplied andfacilitated business and leisure opportunities,cultural exchanges and the development of international institutions and political relationships. Very few other developmentshave made such an outstanding contributionto the development of mankind over the last 100 years.

Europe must “go for it”The rapid journey from the first tentativeflights to the modern airliner is a testamentto the restless search for technologicalimprovement that has long characterisedthe aircraft business. Many aspects of tech-nological evolution are shaped by a combi-nation of changing social needs and com-petitive market forces. Today, these forcesare still generating relentless pressures forchange in the air transport system.

This report is an attempt to demonstratethat Europe can continue to meet the chal-lenge of change by mobilising all of thoseinterests and actors – nowadays known as“stakeholders” – behind the task of produc-ing the competitive products and the air

transport system that will be needed in thefirst decades of this new century.

There are two great prizes: global leadershipin the marketplace and a world class airtransport system for Europe. Europe must gofor them or its achievements of the last 30years will be in jeopardy. Its air transport sys-tem has become an indispensable part ofthe continent’s economic infrastructure.Turnover in the aeronautics sector exceeded€65 billion in 1999 and its balance of tradesurplus – the difference between the prod-ucts it sells to the world and the equivalentsthat are imported – was €22 billion.

Though it is currently struggling to keeppace with the phenomenal increase inmobility and demand, Europe's air trans-port system is providing safe, reliable airtravel that is essential to the requirementsof millions of people. It also guaranteesthem a choice. Without European aeronau-tics, air travel over medium and long-haulroutes would be almost completely domi-nated by US aircraft.

Conscious of its responsibilities to society atlarge, the sector is well aware that it has tofind an acceptable balance between publicexpectations and requirements, and the con-stant, fierce competitive pressures upon it. Ageneration ago, “Higher, Further, Faster”were the imperatives for any vision of thefuture for air transport. Now they are “MoreAffordable, Safer, Cleaner and Quieter”,reflecting the need to combine cost-effec-tiveness with an uncompromising attach-ment to safety and environmental objec-tives. The key to securing these objectives isinvestment in Research and Technology1

according to a strategy that can meet thedemands of the market as well as the needsof the community.

(1) Throughout this report "Research andTechnology" (R&T) refers to developing

new technologies while "Research and Development"(R&D)

includes also the effort for the develop-ment of new products.

Aviation has delivered immense

social and economicbenefits to mankind

Europe can win twogreat prizes: global

leadership and aworld class air

transport system

“More Affordable,Safer, Cleaner,

and Quieter” arethe imperatives

driving R&T

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Pioneering the “knowledge society”Aeronautics is a key asset for the future ofEurope. Its direct contribution to econom-ic prosperity is a measure of its success inpioneering the “knowledge society” thatthe European Union is now urgently seek-ing to achieve2. As users, developers andsuppliers of advanced innovative tech-nologies, aeronautics companies know thevalue and importance of continuouslydeveloping human skills.

Many of the 400,000 people directlyemployed in the industry are highly skilled“knowledge” workers, well practised inthe use and exploitation of advanced tech-nologies, including the new digital infor-mation technologies. Others push forwardthe technological frontiers in research lab-oratories, developing the knowledge thatis crucial for keeping the industry’s firmgrip on world markets. Many of the fruitsof their research also find applications inmarkets quite distant from aeronauticsthat need the technologies but lack theresources to develop them. A great deal of the research work is done in teams, by people whose different national and cultural backgrounds are a reminder of thetalent that Europe can mobilise.

Aeronautics is aparticularly high-tech business work-ing on long leadtimes and requiringhuge capital sums

(2) At its meeting in Lisbon in March 2000 the European Council set the strategic goal for the EU "to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world".

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Today’s strength was built on earlier strategiesAeronautics is a very unusual businessrequiring specific rules: it works on verylong lead times and requires huge capital sums for developing its products.Governments are important sources ofresearch funds and exercise unusual influence over priorities for civil and military products, while manufacture of itslargest and most costly items, aircraft andtheir engines, is concentrated in a fewvery large companies.

The European sector invests 15% of itsturnover in R&D (more than €9 billion ayear) and has built a global position onmuch less public financial support than isenjoyed by its main rivals. The seeds of itscurrent strength were sown in the 1960s.They were not scattered randomly, butplanted according to strategies for achievingcompetitive products for civil and militaryaircraft markets into the 21st century.

The benefits are now being harvested.Airbus is one of the world’s two dominantcivil aircraft producers. Its share of themarket grew steadily throughout the1980s and its share of world order booksis now around 50%, even though morethan 85% of the world's passenger air-craft have been built in the US. In the civilhelicopter market, EU-designed and origi-nated helicopters now hold around 32%of the world market, while European man-ufacturers of regional jet and turbopropaircraft have had more than 60% share ofthese markets over the past 10 years.

Comparison of market shares in civil aeroengines is difficult because of the intensityof cooperation between European and

foreign firms. But there are striking dif-ferences in size between firms: the twolargest US producers make twice the revenues of their European counterparts.

For its part, the equipment sector hasbeen able to maintain a leading role inmost areas and continues to be competitiveagainst much larger foreign rivals. Littleknown outside the industry, for example,is the fact that the vital “Primary FlightControl” systems on the latest aircraftfrom both Boeing and Airbus were devel-oped and are produced in Europe.

Partnerships and consolidation are more essential than everBut new product development is enor-mously expensive and for many years thecosts of developing and producing a fam-ily of new civil airliners have been progres-sively beyond the reach of one company,and of the budgets of most single nations.So companies inside and outside Europehave had to seek partnerships. The mostcelebrated in the airframe sector is theEuropean Airbus consortium set up in1969. Alliances, many of them transat-lantic, also characterise relations betweenengine and equipment manufacturers.

All partnerships reflect the fact that aero-nautics is a dynamic global business inwhich the drive for competitive advantageseeks out the best possible synergies, wher-ever they can be found. Collaboration isconstrained by competitiveness rather thangeography, which is why European compa-nies need to be world class to forge thebest possible partnerships.

Within the European Union, and morerecently supported by it, the pieces on the

European aeronautics

has built a global position

with much lessfinancial support

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Within the EU the industry is energetically restructuring itself

Vision is a strategyfor competitiveexcellence andmeeting society'sneeds

board have been energetically rearrangingthemselves. Collaborative networks for R&Dhave proliferated across borders, broadercommercial relationships created andbonds established that have helped topave the way for mergers, joint venturesand takeovers. Although restructuring ofthe sector in Europe has lagged behindthe equivalent process in the UnitedStates, this process of consolidation is creating the platform for maintaining andenhancing its competitiveness over thenext couple of decades. R&T systems needredesigning, reorganising and refitting ifthey are to support the vision described inthe following pages.

This vision is broad and comprehensive,seeking to bind and coordinate the effortsof all stakeholders behind a strategy forcompetitive excellence dedicated to meetingsociety’s needs. It will not be easilyachieved. But if the vision can be sharedand acted upon by all, the payoff is enor-mous: leadership in the global market-place and a first class air transport systemfor Europe.

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A Vision for European Aeronautics in 2020

Responding to society's needs

3

31

In the next few pages, our vision offers the beginnings of a design for satis-fying aeronautics primary need for world class standards of innovation andtechnology. It should not be read as a promise nor a prediction. We cannotknow today precisely what technologies will be available to the civil aircraftof 2020 and beyond, but we do know that our competitive position will befatally undermined unless we reach out for them.

Air travel will not develop in a vacuum: its size, shape and success will be deter-mined by society as a whole. Aeronautics must satisfy constantly rising demandsfor lower travel costs, better service quality, the very highest safety and environ-mental standards and an air transport system that is seamlessly integrated withother transport networks.

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2018 2019 2020

2019 2020

2021

9 2020

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Punctuality: 99% of all flights arrivingand departing within 15 minutes ofthe published timetable, in all weath-er conditions.

Time spent in airports: no more than15 minutes in the airport beforedeparture and after arrival for short-haul flights, and 30 minutes for longhaul.

A steady and continuous fall in travelcharges through substantial cuts inoperating costs.

Passenger choice: the same choice offacilities that are available on otherforms of transport including legroom, flexible seating and office facil-ities incorporating state of the artcommunications. A greater choice offlights from regional locations.

Air freight services: a larger percent-age (by value) of cargo travels by airbecause it is more competitive withland and sea transport and it is fullyintegrated into a seamless intermodalfreight transport system.

Quality and Affordability

In 2020, the stressed-out passenger andthe anxious freight forwarder belong to avi-ation past, not present. There are no morequeues and interminable waiting for adelayed departure or arrival. From start tofinish, the entire flying experience isdesigned to ensure a contented travellerand satisfied shipper. At all prices, an airlineticket buys the four Cs:

ChoiceThe consumer constructs his or her journeyfrom a palette of satisfying choices. Thereare more routes and more flights to and from most destinations. A network ofregional airports provides easier access toair travel. Flying is a much more customisedexperience, with on-board choice extend-ing far beyond different price categories,hot or cold meals and a couple of movies.

Cabin facilities may cater for different needsfor those who want to work, for example, orplay games, access video or audio libraries,or spend most of their journey reading andsleeping.

ConvenienceOnce more, an airline timetable is some-thing that can be relied upon. Departureand arrival times are dependable in alltraffic densities and weathers, except themost apocalyptic. Airports are no longer a test of the traveller’s stamina andpatience. Thanks to electronic check-in,automated luggage-handling and advancedpeople-moving, passage through thebuildings at both ends of the journey issteady and smooth. Nor is flying the iso-lating experience it used to be. All thebenefits of the information society areavailable on demand through the systemof advanced telecommunications linkingthe aircraft to the world below.

ComfortPeople come in all shapes and sizes and sodo the choices of available seats and legroom. Cabins are very much more passen-ger-friendly than they were 20 years ago andoffer the same well air-conditioned comfortsas home and office. Aircraft interiors are nomore cursed by noise, vibrations and turbu-lence than an executive car travelling atmotorway speed.

CostsIn 2020, the European airline system isoperating with greater efficiency and mak-ing much better use of aircraft and flyingspace. In addition, European-built aircraftcost less to own, operate and maintain,savings that are passed on to paying pas-sengers.

Goals

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Aircraft will achieve a five-foldreduction in the average accident

rate of global operators.

Aircraft will drastically reduce the impact of human error.

Higher standards of training for air-craft operations and maintenance

and for air traffic management.

Goals

Total engagement by the industry in the task of studying and

minimising the industry’s impact on the global environment.

A reduction in perceived noise toone half of current average levels.

Eliminate noise nuisance outside theairport boundary by day and night

by quieter aircraft, better land planning and use around airports

and systematic use of noise reduction procedures.

A 50% cut in CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre (which means a

50% cut in fuel consumption in thenew aircraft of 2020) and an 80% cut

in nitrogen oxide emissions.

Goals

An air traffic management systemthat can handle 16 million flights

a year with 24-hour operation of airports and a more flexible andefficient use of European air space.

A seamless European Air TrafficManagement system mainly based

on a civil global satellite system.

Integration of air transport into an efficient multimodal

transport system.

Goals

In 2020, the skies are safer than everbefore because safety has remained the toppriority of the aircraft builders and opera-tors and of air traffic managers.

Aeronautics has made huge stepstowards eliminating accidents altogetherby designs and automatic systems thatlighten the burdens on the crew and helpthem make correct decisions.

Other causes of accidents are addressed by monitoring systems designed to react totechnical problems immediately they occur.

Safety

In 2020, aircraft are cleaner and quieterand the aeronautics sector’s contributionto a sustainable environment is widelyunderstood and appreciated. Many of itsproducts are made of recyclable materialsand have minimal environmental impact.Though hydrocarbon-based fuel is still themain source of energy, the range and volume of damaging emissions has beensubstantially reduced.

Aircraft noise is no longer a political andsocial issue. It has ceased to be a nuisance to people living close to airportsthanks to a concerted effort to develop quieter engines, optimise operational procedures and improve land planning anduse around airports.

Environment

In 2020, Europe has managed to createa seamless system of air traffic manage-ment that copes with up to three timesmore aircraft movements than today byusing airspace and airports intensively andsafely. The development of sophisticatedground and satellite-based communica-tion, navigation and surveillance systemsas well as free flight has made this possi-ble. Noise nuisance is much reduced andlarge airports can operate around theclock. Capable of flying safely in allweathers, aircraft are running on sched-ule 99% of the time.

European Air Transport System

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A new framework that permits andencourages companies to worktogether more effectively in settingand achieving their industrial priori-ties. This will strengthen competitive-ness and improve responses tochanging market conditions.

Achieve new standards of quality andeffectiveness so that Europe has at itsdisposal the most competitiveresearch system in the world.

Make more determined efforts tomatch the synergies between civiland military research achieved bycompetitors, despite differences ofpolitical structure.

Halve the "time to market" for newproducts with the help of advancedelectronic analytical, design, manufacturing and maintenancetools, methods and processes.

Securing global leadership3 2

In 2020, European aeronautics is theworld’s number one. Its companies are cele-brated brands, renowned for the quality ofproducts that are winning more than 50%shares of world markets for aircraft, enginesand equipment. Though coming in all sizesfrom multinational corporations to small andmedium-sized enterprises, their position isbuilt on formidable competitiveness in allareas, from research to design, from productdevelopment and support to manufacturing,operation and maintenance.

The front runners in the sector are highlyflexible and innovative, drawing technolog-ical strength from a rich network ofEuropean and global research partnerships.They lead the world in anticipating marketdevelopments and in the speed with whichthey can move a product from the drawingboard to delivery to the first customer.

They enjoy the considerable benefits flowingfrom Europe's fully integrated single market,especially the access to efficient capital mar-kets and the ability to recruit from Europe'spool of well educated and trained profes-sionals.

The public sector plays an invaluable role inthis success story. Governments, togetherwith the European Union, are operatingjoint programmes for the management ofthe air transport system that range from asingle safety authority to a unifiedapproach to airspace management, and acommon perspective on airport planning.

Crucially, they are coordinating a highlyeffective European framework for researchcooperation, while funding programmesthat put the industry on more equal termswith its main rivals.

The World’s Number 1

Goals

For the European aeronautics industry

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Adopt more flexible approaches tothe industry that encourage rather

than hinder its adaptation tochanges in the market.

Acknowledge that the competitive-ness of industry is based both on civil

and defence related products andthat this has to be taken into account

in optimising the R&T system.

Facilitate greater integration ofEuropean, national and private

research programmes so that maximum value is obtained

from available funds.

Ensure that education policies aredirected at supplying the engineers,

scientists and other skills aeronauticsbadly needs.

Act rapidly to implement theEuropean Union’s economic reform

agenda including adoption of meas-ures to encourage mobility, such ascross-border portable pensions and

mutual recognition of qualifications,and to promote the rapid growth of

electronic networks, eCommerce andeBusiness.

Ensure closer and more effectivecoordination of the positions of

European governments in interna-tional institutions whose work

impacts the aeronautics industry,supporting the creation of level

playing-fields world-wide (e.g. theInternational Civil Aviation

Organisation, the InternationalTelecommunications Union, the

World Trade Organisation).

In 2020, regulatory arrangements are pro-viding a clear and consistent regime withinwhich aeronautics are developing and pros-pering. Most rules are standard around theworld so that their impact does not favourone set of national interests over another.

The European Union’s regulation of the sec-tor now extends to more than 30 countries.Airlines are free to settle their own routes,capacities and fares subject to the competi-tion rules in an enlarged internal market.

Safety is now regulated by a pan-European Aviation Safety Authority thathas long since replaced the Joint AviationAuthorities (JAA). The Authority covers allaspects of the safety of civil aviation,including air traffic management, airportoperations, aircraft certification and asso-ciated licensing of personnel. A highdegree of global standardisation has alsobeen achieved for safety rules.

Air Traffic Management now applies to a“single European sky” in which air space isassigned and managed as though nationalsovereign zones no longer existed. AllEuropean air traffic control providers,whether or not they are privatised, havereached world class standards of efficiency.

Goals Establishing supportive public policy and regulation 3 3For EuropeanGovernments

ParliamentUnion

Regulation is one of the means by which society ensures that its values and prioritiesare reflected in the procedures and operations of the air transport industry.

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The Aircraft

In 2020, the aircraft is both the symboland the reality of the globally competitiveEuropean aeronautics “system”. It is theend product of the European way of organ-ising and funding research and of applyingits fruits. It is an expression of the depth ofEurope’s human talent and of the capacitiesof its companies to take on and withstandcompetition.

Aircraft design and production has beentransformed, in particular, by the emergingtechnologies. From the first phases of con-ception, the structure, the systems and theengines have been integrated by ComputerAided Design, permitting huge reductionsin production and manufacturing time andcosts. This has been one factor making forcheaper air travel. Others have been loweroperating and maintenance costs, betteroverall management of the aircraft and itsuse and the development of emergingtechnologies such as a new generation oflighter materials which are corrosion resist-ant, tolerant of damage and repairable asoften as necessary.

Engines are still fuelled by hydrocarbons,their polluting emissions having beenreduced to acceptable levels by efficientcombustion, lighter airframes and betteraerodynamics. However, low-pollutingcryogenic fuels are becoming affordable.

Driven by the concepts “More Affordable,Safer, Cleaner and Quieter”, the industry isworking on more competitive aircraftdesigns with different configurations,although the classic cylindrical fuselagewith engines hanging from low wings is still

very much the dominant design at work inthe world’s skies.

Aircraft still at the computer-design phaseare addressing society's needs as well asthe market for the next generation ofsuper-liners. These will carry the populationof a large village – 1200 or so people – withsuperbly efficient fuel consumption in anew dimension of comfortable, cost-effec-tive travel. This is by no means all: theindustry is also ready for the developmentof niche markets for supersonic aircraft andfreight-carrying airships, as well as theemergence of flying wings and innovativevertical take-off and landing vehicles.

The systems’ equipment and componentsIn 2020, European leadership will be evi-dent on aircraft throughout the world. Theindustry in Europe is the leading developerand supplier of avionics systems and itsengines and systems are simply the best. Itsprowess also extends to air traffic manage-ment (ATM). Such has been the success ofthe "European solution" for ATM, that a defacto world standard has been created.

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Identifying the research agenda34

The research agenda must be at the serviceof Vision 2020 and the goals it identifies.Broadly, the air travel requirements of“More Affordable, Safer, Cleaner andQuieter” will dictate the main priorities, butcustomer demands for more reliable servic-es must also be satisfied.

It is not the purpose of this exercise todefine a detailed research agenda. This willbe an evolutionary process which should,among other things, lead to a greater con-centration on large programmes in a fewkey areas, capable of maintaining trans-parency, integration of the supply chainand access for small companies.

Our goals for the air transport system pointto many areas that need to be addressed.The management of aircraft movements on the ground and in the air is a naturalfamily of similar technologies, whilst theaircraft itself and its many complex systemsis another.

Many technical barriers need to be tackledin a comprehensive and coordinated man-ner if substantial improvements are to bemade to the Air Transport System.

Limiting the impact of weatherWe want to continue to reduce the weath-er as a disrupting factor for aircraft opera-tions and a source of discomfort and dan-ger during flight. We cannot control it butwe need to learn to live with the elementsand steadily eliminate the service disrup-tion that they may cause.

Transforming Air Travel

Integrated air traffic managementAir traffic management is a major researchchallenge that is already being confrontedat a European level. The lack of integra-tion of Europe’s air traffic control systemsplaces additional burdens on the Europeanair travel system as well as on the environ-ment. We need new operational conceptsand systems that permit aircraft to operatein all weather conditions, to fly closertogether at lower risk so as to allow opti-mal and efficient allocation of the airspacebetween its civil and military users, whilelimiting as far as possible the constructionof new airports and runways. We alsoneed to pocket the fuel savings that arepossible by permitting aircraft to fly theoptimum route length with no speedrestrictions and by putting an end tostacking aircraft in holding patterns andmaking them wait a long time for a take-off slot. Among other things, this meansdesigning aircraft systems that integratewith airlines, airports and air traffic man-agement operations and procedures so asto greatly improve the efficiency of airspace management.

A new approach to airport managementImaginative management systems address-ing both air and land side operational issuesare badly needed for airports. Despite thetechnologies of automated ticketing, pas-sengers and their baggage are still handledin the same way as 40 years ago. “Just inTime”, for example, is well established forthe manufacturing industry. How can theseprinciples be applied to customers of air-ports? Innovative solutions are also neededthat integrate the air transport system withother transport modes.

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Quality &Affordability

Permanent trend monitoring

Flexible cabin environments

Passenger services

Anticipatory maintenancesystems

Integrated avionics

ATM related airborne systems

Novel materials and structural concepts

Lead time reductions

Integrated design manufacturing and maintenance systems

Advanced design methods

System validation throughmodelling and simulation

Concurrent engineering

European AirTransport System

Innovative ATM operational concepts

Advanced, intelligent andintegrated ATM ground,airborne and space systems

Rotorcraft integration inATM systems

High density traffic systemscapability in all weatherconditions

Airport capacity andadvanced management

Increased use of airspacecapacity

Environment

Drag reduction throughconventional and novelshapes

Fuel additives

Noise reduction

Propulsion concepts

Emission reduction

Environmentally friendlyproduction, maintenanceand disposal

Better aircraft/engine integration

Safety

Flight hazard protection

Advanced avionics

Probability and risk analysis

Computational methods

Human error checking systems

The Research Challenges (examples)

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The Regulatory System

The above agenda is a broad one and does not imply any order of priorities. Thesewill be determined by a dynamic process, partly shaped by time factors and avail-able funds, that is driven by the industry, the research community, the publicauthorities and society at large.

Research subjects included here should be regarded as examples. Many will affectmore than one goal so part of the challenge will be the successful optimisation of thewhole research agenda. An integrated approach can provide the basis for satisfyingsociety's needs and ensuring European leadership in this global industry by 2020.

The research agenda must be underpinned by a strong cohesive regulatory system.

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Literally thousands of systems work togeth-er within a modern aircraft: the airframeitself, the engines, the navigation systemson the flight deck are a few of the “hightech” ones, but seat, galley and many othertechnologies play their part.

Competitive, cost-conscious travel withchoice, comfort and convenienceIn an air transport system that must bemore closely matched to the needs of cus-tomers and citizens, the cost and efficiencyof the aircraft as well as its design and man-ufacturing must be the most competitive inthe world. Aircraft may be acquiring newshapes and sizes by 2020 to improve thetechnical efficiency of the air transport sys-tem and to raise their safety and environ-mental performance. Flying wings couldoffer more efficient and quieter solutions,airships may finally establish themselves asa cheap alternative for carrying freight, andconvenience flying could be a reality withtilting wings that allow vertical take-off andlandings. The super-liners able to carry1200 or more passengers may need newairport systems to handle them, foldingwings to avoid occupying too much airportspace, and entrances and exits of a sizeonce found only on passenger ships.

Safety and environmental gainsIn the meantime, today’s aircraft will continue to be improved by technologyadvances. Second-generation compositematerials and use of hybrid laminar flowover the entire aircraft could make vast contributions to reducing aircraft weight andair drag, thereby reducing fuel consumption.Big strides in safety will be possible throughhuman factors, research and intelligent monitoring and control systems that willanticipate problems and take preventativeactions even before the pilot is aware any-thing is going wrong. The crew's confidencethat it is making the best possible decisionswill be assured by electronic systems.

The Aircraft of Tomorrow

There is a relentless demand for every indus-try to reduce emissions and burn less fueland these are goals the aeronautical industrywill continually strive for. Cleaner and alter-native fuels – hydrogen, for example, if itsproduction costs can be lowered – may beable to help in reducing harmful emissions.More efficient engines are achievable thatwill not only burn less fuel but will alsoreduce damaging emissions to a fraction oftheir current levels. But to bring them withinreach, temperatures and pressures in theheart of the engine need to be raised stillfurther and ways to achieve peak efficiencythroughout the whole flight are needed.

The digital revolution is enabling hugestrides to be made in aircraft design, pro-duction, manufacturing, maintenance andoperating and traffic management. Therewill be vital impacts on flight systems,where much greater integration will bringtop line operation, minimal fuel consump-tion and dramatic improvements in safetystandards. Integrated electronic systemswill greatly improve reliability, remove causes of unscheduled maintenance andallow the opening of “the office and homein the sky”.

Making the most of advanced electronics

The research agenda must be fleshed out inenough detail to allow rational choices tobe made about the radical leap in capabilitythat is required. Once endorsed at the highest levels, it can then act as a beaconfor the aeronautics industry across the EU.That is the theme of our next section, TheWay Forward.

Plotting the Course

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The Way Forward: Creating Partnership for Research and Innovation4

Keys to Success

Describing the vision is the easy part of our task. The real challenge lies inachieving it by changing mentalities and investment priorities for researchand making the best use of total outlays in Europe. We are making recommendations for an evolutionary process requiring a long-term commitment by all stakeholders – the aeronautics industry, airlines, airports, air traffic control service providers, governments and regulators,research institutes and academia – to work in closer partnership and on the basis of consensus. In working together they must keep firmly in mind some important keys to the successful achievement of our vision.They include:

Maintaining consensus

Balanced research

Create new researchsynergies

Optimisation ofresearch facilities

Synergies betweendefence and civil

sectors

Priority for education

Maintaining a continuous consensus among key aeronautics stakeholders based oncommon interests and a commitment to implement its priorities.

Encouraging better co-ordination and distribution between research funded at the EUlevel and programmes sponsored by national governments and individual enterprises.

Creating new synergies between EU, national and regional research programmes andminimising unnecessary duplication of research, while recognising that a degree ofcompetition between companies and agencies is desirable and necessary.

Optimising research facilities. This requires a long-term view of the infrastructure neededto sustain public and private networks of excellence within a framework of European collaboration.

Fostering synergies between defence and civil sectors. The two sectors share many technology needs and Europe should promote synergies between them to make the same gains that other nations do.

Giving education a high priority to ensure the long-term supply of first-class, well-trained and suitably qualified people.

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Securing the keys

These keys to success need to be secured.But we doubt that they can be under pres-ent arrangements. European aeronautics isnow a cross-border industry, but too muchof its research strategy is shaped withinnational borders without clear reference, orindeed, knowledge of what is happeningelsewhere within the Union. The result isfragmentation when we need a morecoherent picture, greater awareness andcritical mass.

These are serious weaknesses. Neverthe-less, there is a real breadth and depth toexisting relationships, collaborations andpartnerships between industry stakehold-ers, the Member States and the EuropeanInstitutions that, with shared vision, driveand commitment, could be transformedinto something more systemic.

We are not questioning political preroga-tives at the national and European levelsneither are we calling for radical changes inthe centres of decision-making as theyimpact aeronautics research, nor in theways in which research is financed. We alsorecognise that there are limits to potentialcross-border research cooperation: whatmay be possible in one sector does not necessarily apply to others.

The current set-upcannot secure

the keys

There are limits tocrossborder cooperation

However, there is a definite need to createthe conditions for better decision-makingand for more efficient and effective researchby the Union, the Member States and theaeronautics stakeholders. We require:

a common strategic approach to the defi-nition of priorities and long-term funding;

new partnerships to complement and build on the old;

a more efficient and effective sharing of tasks.

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Strategic definition of priorities

We believe these objectives can be attainedthrough mobilising Europe’s formidableresearch capacities behind a much greatercommon effort without in any way prejudic-ing healthy competition within the industry.

The path to a sharper focus on strategicresearch lies in a regular and continuous dia-logue between aeronautics stakeholders andthe highest political levels in the MemberStates and the European Union. Among arange of issues, this dialogue will need tocover relations between civil and militaryaeronautics. But its primary products wouldbe a Strategic Research Agenda, adoptedevery two years, and a work programmederived from it, together with a more coher-ent and coordinated approach to optimisingresearch efforts by all stakeholders.

Coordination would not be imposed, butfacilitated and, in effect, implied by thecommon adoption of priorities developedwithin a framework commanding broadsupport from all stakeholders.

Partnerships

Sharing of tasks

The Strategic Research Agenda (SRA)This is the beacon to light the way towards our vision. In section 3.4 we have onlymanaged to give a very broad description of some of the research areas that mightfeature in such an Agenda. Produced by representatives of all those with a stake inresearch, the SRA would be a timed and scoped statement of research prioritieswith recommendations for implementation. Biannual updating will steadily encour-age convergence of the priorities of individual funding programmes in both thepublic and the private sectors and allow evaluation of global results.Maximum benefit would be gained from the SRA through the co-operation and,where appropriate, inter-dependence, of the stakeholders in its implementation.

In addition to purely national efforts bygovernments and companies, aeronauticsresearch is already characterised by cross-border partnerships within Europe andacross the Atlantic. None of these shouldfeel threatened by the development of theStrategic Research Agenda, which isintended to present new opportunities forexisting combinations as well as to stimu-late the formation of additional ones.

Greater inter-dependence and specialisationof function than currently exists is likely toemerge from common efforts that are bet-ter organised and structured. EU aeronau-tics research would stand on the followingthree pillars, the first two of which arealready well-established:

National publicly-financed programmes;

The EU research actions;

New forms of cross-border cooperation andpartnerships between national and EU pro-grammes. Changes in national regulationsthat are currently obstacles to such partner-ships, as well as an adaptation of the EUresearch instruments, might be required toallow for a better structure of the aeronau-tics research landscape in Europe.

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Collaboration, cooperation andcompetition

A regular and con-tinuous dialogue isneeded to optimiseresearch efforts byall stakeholders

Create new mechanisms tofacilitate strongercooperation andpartnership

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We recommend41Creation of a new entity, the AdvisoryCouncil for Aeronautics Research inEurope, designed to turn the current patch-work into a research network by definingthe content of the Strategic ResearchAgenda and helping to make it a reality. TheCouncil must be tripartite in composition,bringing together, in a non-bureaucraticway and recognising their particular roles,authoritative, senior figures from aeronau-tics stakeholders, Member States and theCommission to build consensus in favour ofstrategic actions.

We would expect that participation in thework of the Advisory Council would involvea commitment to influence all stakeholdersto plan research programmes in the light ofSRA priorities. Consensus at the Councillevel should also help in the sharing of tasks

and shaping relations between national andEU programmes as well as influencing thedeployment of funds.

The Advisory Council should also be aneffective instrument for promoting the edu-cational policies and standards needed toensure that highly-qualified and talentedpeople are available to the industry and tothe research community in general.

While this is not the place to determine thedetails, we think it important that theCouncil should be a light structure of 20-30people, identified for their experience, com-mitment and vision. Direct representation ofthe major stakeholders would be essentialfor this process to succeed. The Council’sfunctions would be to:

Launch and approve the Strategic Research Agenda and update it every two years.

Make strategic and operational recommendations and commission future studies for implementing the SRA and achieving the 2020 vision.

Evaluate the overall results and benefits of the SRA for Member States, theCommission and stakeholder groups. Develop and implement a communicationsstrategy with two broad objectives:

- promoting awareness of the SRA within the stakeholder communities andouwards to larger public audiences;

- disseminating sufficient information on stakeholders’ research programmes tofacilitate a consensus on priorities.

Recommend accompanying measures for:

- getting the best out of existing research infrastructures;

- achieving cost-effective investment in new infrastructures;

- ensuring educational policies that will produce the scientists, engineers and otherskills the industry needs.

The Council would be supported in executing its functions by a small, suitably qualified staff (the “Support Group”) embodying, like itself, the tripartite principle. We would hope that this group would be drawn from the Commission, Member States and from stakeholders.

Build a consensus infavour of strategic

actions

Exercise influence in favour of SRA

priorities

A light structurewith major stake-

holders represented

Supported by asmall, suitably qualified staff

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1. Compiling the SRA: in producing theproposal on the content of the SRA, theAdvisory Council’s Support Group couldcommission highly qualified independentexperts to provide input.

2. Approving the SRA: after detailed consultations with the aeronautics industry,Member States and the European Institu-tions, the Support Group would draft theSRA for approval by the Advisory Council.

3. Transmission to funding authorities: onceapproved, the SRA would be passed to theEuropean Parliament, the Council ofResearch Ministers, Member States, andthe European Commission.

4. Mapping the route: the AdvisoryCouncil’s Support Group would translatethe SRA into more operational terms anddevelop a strategic work programme as thebasis for research programmes and associ-ated requirements. This would be passed to all stakeholders and decision-makersinvolved in aeronautics research.

The success of this exercise almost entirelydepends on rallying the political, industrialand research communities behind the SRA'spriorities. If they do so, research priorities willconverge, research performance will bemore efficient and effective, there will bemore opportunities for collaboration, andEuropean aeronautics will become a globalleader that responds to society’s needs.

The SRA Process

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Setting up milestones4 3

Against this background:

Europe needs a Strategic Research Agenda for aeronautics as soon as possible; the Advisory Council needs to start work in the spring of 2001 and to deliver an SRA by early 2002;

resources for new mechanisms jointly funded by the EU and Member Statesshould be made available before 2003.

Subsequent milestones will be established by the Advisory Council according toits priorities and available funds.

Financing the vision4 2

Gradual realisation of our ambitious visionmust be facilitated by an increase in publicfunding. European aeronautics has grownand prospered with the support of publicfunds and this support must continue if weare to achieve our objective of global lead-ership. Although it is a preliminary esti-mate, total funding required from all publicand private sources over the next 20 yearscould go beyond €100 billion.

Its justification is clear: research and tech-nologies are needed to protect the publicinterest in areas such as safety and the envi-ronment; regulators need the products ofscience and technology in order to fixsound, practical rules; a major competitor,the United States, makes a very importantfinancial contribution to its domestic aero-nautics research and, given the synergiesbetween civil and military aeronautics

research, steady reductions in defencebudgets in Europe over the last decadehave been working against our ambitions.

In addition, patterns of funding need toadapt both to changes in research prioritiesand to the impact of changes in the indus-try's structure. A variety of mechanisms isneeded to achieve more effective research.Some, including the EU's FrameworkProgramme, already exist while others willneed to be created. Article 1693 of the EUTreaty may be one such mechanism for cre-ating synergies.

The proportion of total public funding foraeronautics research provided by the EUhas increased during the last ten years in anevolutionary process that has to find anappropriate balance between EU andnational funding.

(3) Article 169 allows for voluntary joint research efforts involving some, but not all, Member States, with additional funding from the EU.The Article says: “In implementing the multiannual framework programme the Community may make provision, in agreement with theMember States concerned, for participation in research and development programmes undertaken by several Member States, includingparticipation in the structures created for the execution of those programmes."

Public funding isneeded to secureglobal leadership

A variety of mecha-nisms are neededfor more effective

research

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Published by theEuropean Commission

LEGAL NOTICENeither the European Commission nor any person acting

on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information.

Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2001

ISBN 92-894-0559-7

© European Communities, 2001

Printed in Belgium

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KI-34-01-827-EN

-C

European Aeronautics: A Vision for 2020 sets the agenda for the EuropeanAeronautics' ambition to better serve society's needs and strengthen its quest forglobal leadership. The vision has been developed by very senior personalities widelydrawn from the industry and other stakeholders. They recommend strengtheningand reorganising research and development efforts to improve competitiveness andprovide a safe, efficient and environmentally friendly air transport system.

OFFICE FOR OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS

OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

L-2985 Luxembourg

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