EUROPE QUARTER BY NUMBERS · initiatives that will lead to an explosion of e-commerce in the coming...
Transcript of EUROPE QUARTER BY NUMBERS · initiatives that will lead to an explosion of e-commerce in the coming...
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Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
QUARTER BY
NUMBERS Q4 2017
EUROPE
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CONTENTS
SECTION 1
THE BIG PICTURE: EUROPE WEST
Message from Olivier Deschamps…………………..…………………….………03
EUROPE AT A GLANCE
Key economic drivers………………………………………………………….……04
Looking through Europe West FMCG lens………………………………...……06
COUNTRY SNAPSHOT
Belgium……….………………………………………….…………………………..07
France……….………………………………………..….…………………………..10
Germany……….……………………………………..….…………………………..13
Italy……………………………………………………….…………………………..16
Netherlands..….…………………………………….……………….………………19
Portugal……….……………………………………..………………….……………22
Spain………………………………………………………………….………………25
United Kingdom.……………….…………………………………….………………28
IN THE INDUSTRY
Retail Channel Universe Update……...………………………..…………………93
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THE BIG PICTURE:
EUROPE WEST
Olivier Deschamps
Retail Services
Lead Markets
Welcome to the first edition of Europe Quarter by Numbers that includes key Western
European markets for Q4 2017, complimenting the view of Central and East Europe already
in place. Our ambition is to provide context and insight into how broader macroeconomic
factors are influencing consumer sentiment and spending patterns in the retail scene.
After tough times in the last few years, 2017 showed a dynamic economic environment across
Europe, with positive consumer confidence in the region reaching some of the highest levels
seen for some time. While nations can draw similarities among the positive impacts on
consumer sentiment, Europeans diverge in the national issues of greatest concern - terrorism
remains high on the list and health is definitely a key priority with countries like Portugal
showing notable peaks. Encouraged by lower risk of terrorism and better economic conditions,
tourists flocked to the region in 2017 (+8%), particularly in Mediterranean countries. France
was still the number one global tourist destination and Spain is about to exceed USA. Western
European countries also remained strong with the best economic growth see in 10 years.
GDP increased +2.5% in 2017 and is now stable following recovery from a number of
economic and political crises over the last decade. Among Eurozone's largest economies,
GDP growth slowed slightly in Germany, Italy and Spain in Q4, but picked up in France,
Netherlands and Belgium.
In this favorable context, the FMCG industry rose with significant value growth across the
region, led by Iberia where both Portugal (+6.7%) and Spain (+5.3%) are growing fast. In
every market inflation is feeding growth, but volumes are also doing well in 2017, benefitting
also from better weather than in 2016 leading to a direct impact on Beverage categories.
The exceptions being both Belgium and Netherlands where volumes are declining by -0.3%.
Putting money into savings is the first priority for the majority of markets and consumers
continue to navigate the retail environment with a savings mindset, seeking the best deals
when shopping. Discounters like Aldi and Lidl are pushing hard across the region and gaining
share, modifying the retail landscape. Another key trend is the rapid increase of digital
initiatives that will lead to an explosion of e-commerce in the coming years. Best examples are
now France and UK where e-commerce has gained 6% share of FMCG and increasing with
online `clicks` growing still faster than store “bricks”. This is within the context of a moderately
inflationary environment in Western Europe at the end of 2017.
We have seen recently that growth in FMCG is getting harder and harder to achieve but
winners can be found across all sectors and markets with many examples of companies,
segments and channels performing strongly. Without a doubt, where we see massive and
sustained growth is among small players, doing much better than the bigger players across
countries. In a number of markets, local brands are capitalizing on revived “local pride”,
leveraging an appeal from consumers toward local consumption and a push from retailers
towards premium, local champions, who frequently offer products with health and wellness
benefits, organic ingredients or “free-from” claims.
Private Labels are also gaining traction across these markets (except in France), at a time
when many retailers have revamped their own brands, upgrading ranges and investing in
communication. That said, big or small, retailers or manufacturers, it’s up to all the players in
the industry to understand the nuances by market and connect with local consumers.
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EUROPE WEST MARKETS AT A
GLANCE
ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS
AROUND EUROPE
The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index measures perceptions of local job
prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer
confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of
optimism and pessimism, respectively.
Positive consumer sentiment across the region with record high
indices in various markets – only declining in Belgium and UK
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
GDP and Inflation reflect % change per annum to Q4 or latest available data
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)/local government sources
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
Q4 2017Q4 2017 vs
Q3 2017
GDP
(annual %
growth)
Inflation
Belgium 85 -10 1.7 2.0
UK 96 -3 1.5 2.8
GDP
(annual %
growth)
Inflation Q4 2017Q4 2017 vs
Q3 2017
2.4 1.2 France 79 8
1.7 1.1 Italy 68 3
2.9 1.6 Germany 103 0
3.2 1.6 Spain 93 0
3.1 1.3 Netherlands 101 0
2.1 1.8 Portugal 84 0
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38
48
27
51
4245
40
5047
37
29
51
44
2831
45
2822
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
EU BE DE ES FR GB IT NL PTPutting into savings New clothes
1923
1517
13 14
19 20
27
1921
33
18
34
26
16
23
10
0
10
20
30
40
EU BE DE ES FR GB IT NL PTHealth Terrorism
Putting money into savings is #1 priority for majority of W. Europe
markets, spend on clothes is important in Germany, Italy and Spain
WHAT ARE THE TOP 2 CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?
WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?
Type of concern
After living expenses, how is spare money spent
Bars reflect Q4 2017. Table shows comparison to Q3 2017
EUROPE WEST
MARKETS AT A GLANCE
Bars reflect Q4 2017. Table shows comparison to Q3 2017
CONSUMER SENTIMENTS IN
EUROPE
EU BE DE ES FR GB IT NL PT
Health 1 -5 2 -3 -1 3 0 -3 5
Terrorism -6 -7 -3 -20 -4 -10 -10 -4 -14
EU BE DE ES FR GB IT NL PT
Putting into savings 1 9 0 3 -1 0 -6 1 0
New clothes 1 4 6 -1 -2 3 -1 0 3
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
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GERMANY (-0.4%)
PORTUGAL (+1.5%)
UK (+1.7%)
FRANCE (+0.7%)
LOOKING THROUGH EUROPE WEST FMCG LENS
FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS – Q4 2017
Weighted average – WEST EUROPE – 8 countries
WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?
Average volume growth Q3 2017 & Q4 2017
Avg. volume growth decreasing versus last period
Avg. volume growth increasing versus last period
2.1% 1.4%
3.2%
1.3%
3.2%3.8%
2.1%1.2%
-0.3%
1.4%
0.5%
1.7%
-0.3%
2.9%
3.2%
2.8%
1.8%
2.8%
3.7%
3.1% 2.9%
6.7%
5.3%
4.0%
BE FR DE IT NL PT ES GB
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
ITALY (+2.1%)
BELGIUM (-0.5%)
NETHERLANDS (-0.6%)
SPAIN (+2.8%)
Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend
compared to same 6 month period year ago
Average volume growth of Q3’17 & Q4’17 vs Q3’16 & Q4’16.
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BELGIUM SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
1.61.4
1.8
1.51.7 1.7
1.9 2.0
3.0
2.0 1.9 2.0
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
7681
8984
95
85
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU BE
Pedro Lima
Managing Director
Benelux
While Belgium’s economy is growing significantly, the growth remains minimal compared
to neighboring markets. The European Commission believes Belgium’s growth in 2018 will
be the second slowest in the Eurozone. After several quarters hovering around the 70 to
80s, consumer confidence has stabilized at 85. Half of Belgian people believe that the
country is in a recession at the moment, with a little less than one third believing it is a
good time to buy the things they want or need.
The FMCG market grew 1.3% in 2017, which is slower than GDP growth and with volume
sales dropping slightly. In addition, Belgium’s FMCG price gap has widened versus
neighboring countries over the past 15 years, creating cross-border competition for
consumers. Over half of Belgians surveyed say they’ve changed spending to cut down on
household spending, with 57% saying they have switched to cheaper grocery brands to
save on household expenses.
In mature markets like Belgium, the struggle for manufacturers is to find growth
opportunities. While elusive, they are present. In Belgium, capitalizing on local footprint
and distribution channels are major growth drivers for total FMCG. This year most growth
was driven by Hard Discounters, due to introduction of national brands and premium
products, and Large Supermarkets, which successfully offer a wide assortment at
competitive pricing. Superettes remain small but experienced the largest growth.
There are great opportunities for manufacturers who successfully innovate with local niche
products, giving them a local relevance and authenticity that resonates well with
consumers. Strong, established brands, particularly within Impulse categories, can benefit
from growth by listing at Hard Discounters - even without compromising on price.
Experimenting with pack sizing can also be a tactic to combat rising costs, with Millennials
in particular open to smaller sizes, especially if it helps keep them healthier. Health is an
increasing priority. Belgian consumers want antibiotic-free, hormone-free, and artificial
preservative/flavor/color-free products; therefore innovating to create products that match
changing consumer demand is another way to find growth in a mature market.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
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1.3%
0.0%
4.1%
-7.0%
3.3%
7.0%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Large Supermarkets
Small Supermarkets Hard Discounters Superettes
TOTAL BELGIUM – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Rising prices rather than volume continues to drive nominal growth
Hypermarkets contract. Growth is mostly driven by Hard Discounters
and smaller stores.
TOTAL BELGIUM - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
12%
50%
18%
17%
3%
2.6%
1.4%
3.4%
2.9%
2.3%
1.7%0.9%
1.4%
1.2%
2.1%
-1.6%-0.1%
-1.7% -2.9%-0.8% -1.1% -0.9%
1.4%
-0.8% -0.3%
1.0%1.3%
1.7%
0.0%
1.5%
0.6%0.0%
2.8%
0.4%
1.8%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
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TOTAL BELGIUM – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Alcoholic Beverages 14.6%
Dairy 13.3%
Grocery 12.0%
Fresh Products 12.0%
Non Alcoholic Beverages 11.4%
Health & Beauty 8.5%
Housekeeping 5.9%
Frozen 5.0%
Confectionery 4.7%
Sweet Snacks 3.7%
Hot Beverages 2.9%
Salted Snacks 2.3%
Pet Product 2.0%
Bakery & Toast 1.8%
1.3%
-1.1 %
2.3 %
0.5 %
4.5 %
3.1 %
-1.3 %
-0.5 %
1.1 %
1.3 %
0.4 %
1.4 %
3.5 %
-1.1 %
5.6 %
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 15.5%
Top 6-10 8.3%
Top 11-30 13.6%
31-100 10.1%
100+ 16.9%
Private Label 35.5%
1.3%
1.3%
0.0%
-1.0%
-0.4%
1.7%
2.7%
TOTAL BELGIUM – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
Manufacturers are mostly growing thanks to innovation. Strong growth
evident from smaller companies and Private Label
Fresh, Bakery and Dairy drive growth.
Great innovation opportunities for local giants in these categories
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FRANCE SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) GDP estimate for Q4 2017
0.9
1.2 1.2
1.8
2.32.4
0.40.6
1.5
1.0 0.9
1.2
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
66 69 66
7571
79
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU FR
Laurent Zeller
Managing Director
France
The FMCG industry in France had a strong finish in 2017 reporting a +2.8% growth
in value and 1.4% in volume during last quarter, along with a record high consumer
confidence. The Christmas period accounted for almost 20% of the full year FMCG
growth highlighting the importance of understanding seasonality. E-commerce
continues its momentum (mostly click & drive in France) with close to double digit
growth while urban convenience stores also performed strongly with high single
digit growth.
The growing force behind total FMCG growth has been the fresh market industries
(both Dairy and Non-dairy). During the last quarter in France, there has been a
shortage on butter that created huge price inflation on this category, due to supply
and demand effect. This category alone drove 30% of the Dairy sector’s growth
during Q4.
The last quarter has seen an accelerating trend for small and medium FMCG
companies. Given the price deflation for large brands, consumers have improved
purchasing power which has encouraged them to buy more premium segments or
categories. This is a continuing trend of “premiumisation” that has been evident
over the past five years. Likewise, organic food has also seen significant growth in
2017, up 20% in grocery stores and 16% in specialized organic stores.
We anticipate FMCG will grow between 1.5% and 2% in 2018 on the back of better
economic macro trends and positive confidence sentiment, as well as specific 2018
events such as the Soccer World Cup and Olympic games. In 2018, a new
legislation (‘SRP’) will also be introduced which will cap promotional levels for
retailers as well as guaranteeing a fair price to producers. This might create a slight
inflation trend for food products.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
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1.5%
0.4%
1.6%
4.2%
8.5%
0.7%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets
Convenience Drive (E-Commerce) Smpl / Discounters
TOTAL FRANCE – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
2017 has been a solid year, with a strong last quarter thanks to a very dynamic
Christmas period
TOTAL FRANCE - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
42%
34%
8%
5%
11%
0.8%
1.0% 0.3%
-0.1%
0.8% 0.7%
-0.4%
-1.9%
1.0%1.4%
0.0%
0.5%
2.2%
-0.1% -0.2% -0.3%-0.3%
5.1%0.1% 1.4%
0.8%
1.5%
2.5%
-0.2%0.5% 0.5%
-0.7%
3.2%
1.0%
2.8%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
One third of FMCG growth comes from e-commerce, urban convenience
stores and SMPL (Discounters)
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Fresh products continue to drive growth while the Health and Beauty
sector confirms its long-term decline in grocery stores
TOTAL FRANCE – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL FRANCE – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Sweet Grocery 17.9%
Fresh Non-Dairy 16.9%
Dairy 16.1%
Savoury Grocery 12.2%
Alcoholic Drinks 9.7%
Soft Drinks 7.1%
Homecare 5.9%
Personal Care 5.9%
Paper Products 3.6%
Savoury Frozen Food 3.5%
Sweet Frozen Food 1.2%
1.5%
1.8%
3.8%
1.5%
1.2%
2.5%
2.4%
-0.4%
-2.5%
-0.9%
-1.2%
4.2%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 12.0%
Top 6-10 7.4%
Top 11-30 16.4%
31-100 16.2%
100+ 15.6%
Private Label 32.5%
1.5%
0.5%
-2.3%
1.5%
4.7%
4.8%
-0.1%
Small and medium companies are driving growth due to consumer demand
and support for local produce and delivery
13
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GERMANY SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
1.9 1.92.1
2.3
2.8 2.9
0.4
1.0
1.9
1.61.7 1.6
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
96 100 101 103 102 103
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU DE
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) GDP forecast for Q4 2017
Ingo Schier
Managing Director
Germany
The overall economy in Germany is good with GDP growth at 2.9% combined with a
healthy inflation rate and the lowest unemployment rate since the Reunification of
Germany (5.3%). While still considered a strong export-champion, current economic
growth is also supported by solid domestic consumption. The continuously low
Eurozone interest rates entice consumers to spend more money, especially for out-
of-home consumption and durable consumer goods. Despite the “Diesel scandal”,
the automobile industry is thriving. Sales of new automobiles were promoted by
trade-ins throughout the industry and local legal ramifications were limited. But
recent judicial decisions hold the potential to stir things up in 2018.
The Consumer Confidence Index is stable and far above European average (103 vs.
87 for Q4 2017). Two thirds of Germans have an excellent or good attitude towards
their own job prospects and more than 50% judge their financial situation as good or
excellent.
FMCG value growth (+1.8%) remains lower than GDP development. Enhanced
listings of A-brands at Aldi is triggering heightened price consciousness among
consumers and price-focused reactions by other retailers. Hyper and supermarkets
are increasing their focus on Private label activities and promotions. The number of
shopping trips consumers are making have been in decline over the last years. Even
if consumers spend more per trip, the change in behaviour impacts the number of
potential touch points specifically in the brick and mortar environment. E-commerce
represents an approximate 1% share of Total FMCG but in categories where online
is already important, the market is dominated by pure players. The major offline retail
players are not yet investing heavily in e-commerce platforms due to expected lower
return on investment than in the offline world.
The key challenge for manufacturers is in determining how to win in a saturated
market where price increases for established brands will not work. Both parties,
retailers and manufacturers ought to invest in designing a premium strategy where
products and services are clearly differentiated from the current mainstream offers
and in discovering what consumers are willing to spend more money on.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
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1.8%
2.4%
-5.2%
2.6%
3.0%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Discounters Drug Stores
TOTAL GERMANY – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Slight market increase in Q4 led by Private label and promotions
New openings of large formats within Supermarkets and Hard
discounter re-designs are key drivers
TOTAL GERMANY - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
38%
10%
43%
10%
1.2%
2.7%1.2%
0.5%1.2%
1.7%
1.4%3.1%
3.1%
3.2%
-0.7% -1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%-0.7%
-0.6%
-2.6%
-0.3% -1.4%
0.5%
0.5%
1.8%1.3%
-0.5%
0.4%
1.1%
-1.2%
2.8%
1.7%
3.7%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
15
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TOTAL GERMANY – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL GERMANY – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Top manufacturers underperformance is partly due to reduced product
offering and less flexibility on targeting niche consumer needs and groups
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Food Ambient 17.2%
Dairy 11.7%
Non Alcoholic Beverages 11.7%
Confectionery 10.4%
Alcoholic Beverages 10.3%
Fresh Food Selfservice 9.0%
Personal Care 6.9%
Household Care 6.9%
Tobacco 6.0%
Frozen Food 5.6%
Baby 1.6%
Pet Food 1.6%
Health Care 1.0%
1.8%
3.6%
6.4%
0.8%
2.1%
-0.7%
1.2%
1.0%
0.2%
-2.9%
1.9%
2.8%
-1.1%
4.3%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 8.0%
Top 6-10 5.1%
Top 11-30 9.4%
Top 31-100 13.7%
100+ 22.1%
Private Label 41.6%
1.8%
-1.2%
-0.2%
2.4%
0.6%
1.1%
3.2%
Price increases for Dairy products (up to 20%) caused by exploding raw
material costs have push value development
16
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ITALY SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
0.91.0
1.3
1.5
1.7 1.7
-0.1
0.2
1.3
1.6
1.3
1.1
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
55 57 58 5865
68
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU IT
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) GDP estimate for Q4 2017
Giovanni Fantasia
Managing Director
Italy
At a glance, Italy’s situation is positive, with GDP growth expected to be 1.4%
throughout 2018 according to the Bank of Italy. Public debt has stabilised and the
moderate rise in households’ disposable income is encouraging higher
consumption and investments. The exceptional increase in consumer confidence
in Q3 was the best increase among major EU Countries, +7pp and its positive
momentum has been maintained in Q4, reaching an index of 68. Nevertheless,
the country needs to reinforce stronger (and braver) measures.
FMCG market performance was strong compared to 2016 with volume growth
boosted by seasonal factors, with the hottest and driest summer ever and an
“upgrade” of the average shopping cart. Among FMCG products, Food is the
primary driver. Millennials and wealthy families are the trendsetters for health &
wellness products, and products with a convenience offering (e.g. ready-to-eat). In
response to these emerging needs, retailers and manufacturers are rejuvenating
their assortments and encouraging sales across different categories. Beyond
structural reforms and a rationalization of tax legislation, innovation should
underpin economic recovery. To innovate, companies must keep up with evolving
consumer needs and the changing retail landscape.
Ageing population, digital disruption and social fragmentation are all changing the
way Italians shop. What and how consumers buy does not necessarily depend on
their age or income, but rather on their "specific needs" and willingness to pay for
FMCG products. To effectively identify and target the right consumers to drive
growth, we have identified five consumer clusters:
1. Traditional mature shoppers
2. Silver - high income older shoppers who have potential to spend more
3. Price conscious – young consumers looking for efficient shopping
4. Mainstream – indulgent (i.e. leaning towards unhealthy diet) and low-income
5. Golden – high income, high spend with healthy sustainable consumption
The next step for players operating in Italy is to address each of those shoppers
group to determine tomorrow’s opportunities.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
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2.6%
2.4%
4.2%
-2.3%
3.7%
6.2%
-4.8%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Convenience Discounters Drug Stores Others
TOTAL ITALY – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Strong performance in December helped maintain Q4 growth also supported by
inflationary price dynamics
Drug stores are performing well due to faster innovation streams. Convenience
and Traditional stores (“Others”) are losing share
TOTAL ITALY - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
26%
37%
10%
17%
5%4%
0.9%
-0.3%-0.9% -1.0% -0.5%
0.7%0.9% 0.6% 1.3%
1.7%
0.4%2.1%
1.4%2.1%
-0.5%
3.1%
2.6%1.7%
2.6%
0.1%
1.2%
0.3%
1.6%
0.2%
4.0%
3.1% 3.1%
MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
18
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Food drives FMCG growth. Italians are more willing to “invest” in healthy
and premium products. Personal care and Household care are struggling.
TOTAL ITALY – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL ITALY – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Packaged Food 30.7%
All Fresh 28.1%
Beverages 14.4%
Personal Care 9.9%
Home Care 7.8%
Frozen 5.4%
Pets 2.0%
Light Bazaar 1.3%
Heavy Bazaar 0.2%
Textile 0.1%
2.6%
1.5%
4.6%
4.1%
0.6%
-0.4%
5.2%
2.9%
-4.0%
-3.5%
-6.2%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 9.7%
Top 6-10 5.6%
Top 11-30 12.8%
Top 31-100 14.3%
100+ 31.8%
Private Label 25.9%
2.6%
0.9%
-2.0%
0.1%
2.3%
3.7%
4.4%
Private Label and smaller players are driving growth thanks to the
price/quality ratio they offer and increasing trust from shoppers
19
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79 81 8185 87 87
9196
100 102 101 101
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU NL
ECONOMY WATCH
NETHERLANDS SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
2.4
2.82.6
3.8
3.2 3.1
-0.2
0.5
1.31.0
1.5 1.3
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) GDP estimate or Q4 2017
Pedro Lima
Managing Director
Benelux
The Dutch economy is performing well with all macroeconomic trends pointed in the
right direction. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, in 2017 the Dutch
economy saw the fastest growth seen in the past ten years. Consumer confidence
has stabilized at 101 points. 58% of Dutch consumers feel positively about the state
of their personal finances within the next 12 months, with just over half positive about
their future job prospects.
The FMCG market grew +1.9% in 2017, with relatively strong performance in the
second half of the year counterbalancing the contraction in early 2017. Price remains
the strong driver of growth, while volume sales are declining. The volume trend is in
part due to the good development of HORECA and the shift to e-commerce for
several categories. Supermarkets are showing high growth, driven primarily by price
and premium products. Drug, Perfumery and Food specialty stores are also growing.
but at a slower pace. Channels like Drug are facing more competition from e-
commerce players than Supermarkets, and Petrol is contracting due to an increase in
unmanned stores. Over 25% of Dutch consumers are now buying groceries or
personal care items online, which is a big jump from 2016 (19%). The Dutch e-
commerce market for groceries represents EUR 759 million, up 55% since last year.
Out-of-home dining and home delivery are growing exponentially, providing
increased competition to retailers. This trend is due to both the growing economy and
the growing number of millennials, with no signs of slowing down in the near future.
In 2016, the market for delivered food was approximately EUR 420 Million, and
estimates for 2017 are in the range of EUR 1.3 - 1.4 billion. The development of
additional delivery services like UberEats, Foodora, and of course Thuisbezorgd are
evidence of this emerging trend.
Looking forward, with a growing economy and consumer demand, there are
opportunities for experimenting with different price tiers as well as innovating with
premium concepts. Fresh shows great growth potential, particularly for vegetables,
fruit, and cheese. Branded produce can be a great avenue to drive sales and
influence store choice, as shoppers look to product quality when choosing where to
shop.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
20
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1.9%
2.2%
0.6%
-0.8%
Total FMCG Food Drug-Perfumery Petrol
TOTAL NETHERLANDS – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Growth in FMCG largely driven by price increases rather than volume sales
Supermarkets are showing high growth, driven primarily by price and premium
products. Hard discounters (included in Food) are no longer gaining share
TOTAL NETHERLANDS - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
85%
11%5%
1.1%2.6%
1.0%
1.1% 1.1%
1.0% 1.1%2.3%
3.1% 3.2%
-2.1%
-0.8%
0.3%
-0.5%-0.7%
0.5%
-1.9%
0.9%
-1.1% -0.3%-0.9%
1.9%
1.2%
0.6%0.4%
1.6%
-0.7%
3.2%
2.0%
2.9%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
21
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TOTAL NETHERLANDS – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL NETHERLANDS – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Strong growth seen from players operating in premium segments and
from smaller niche players with distinct consumer propositions
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Beverages 24.7%
Other Shelf Stable Food 19.5%
Personal Care 13.5%
Tobacco 12.3%
Confectionery 12.0%
Dairy 6.9%
Frozen 5.3%
Home Care 3.7%
Margarine/Butter/Fat 2.1%
1.9%
1.8%
1.2%
0.0%
-0.3%
3.6%
7.6%
1.8%
1.9%
5.6%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 17.1%
Top 6-10 7.8%
Top 11-30 14.2%
Top 31-100 16.7%
100+ 25.8%
Private Label 18.4%
1.9%
0.9%
1.7%
2.6%
1.0%
2.2%
2.7%
Strongest growth is in Dairy, with significant price increases on Milk (+20%).
Price hikes on Butter also impact the Margarine/Butter/Fat sales
22
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PORTUGAL SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
1.8
2.2
2.83.0
2.5
2.1
0.8 0.8
1.51.6
1.3
1.8
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
6570
7482 85 84
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU PT
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) GDP estimate or Q4 2017
After a period of crisis, the economic climate is now more favorable in Portugal,
with increases in GDP and prices supported by growing tourist activity. In fact, the
confidence of Portuguese consumers has grown significantly, over the last
quarters with the highest indexes ever registered. Consumers believe they have
increasingly better employment and personal finances' prospects, recognizing that
this is a favorable time to buy what they want or need.
The balance between personal and professional life, as well as health are the
primary concerns to Portuguese consumers, who seek convenient and healthier
products, even if that means buying at a higher price. The products' quality and the
purchasing experience are also critical to success adding value to the category
and bringing additional benefits to consumers.
In 2017, FMCG grew by 4.2%, predominantly due to price increases. This reflects
a very different environment to that of 2016 where prices were stable and volume
consumption was growing at 2.6%.
The last quarter of 2017, with a dynamic Christmas and New Year's Eve period
and healthier volume consumption indicates a positive trend for the immediate
future. Brands and retailers in FMCG need to innovate and invest in creating value
in their categories, with products that even with higher prices, bring extra benefits
and make life easier for consumers.
Gustavo Nuñez
Managing Director
Iberia
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
23
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4.2%
2.7%
4.7%
5.3%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Superettes+Traditionals
TOTAL PORTUGAL – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
The growing inflationary environment compared to 2016 impacted FMCG which
grew by 4.2% in 2017
Supermarkets continue to be the most important channel, with smaller formats
growing faster than average
TOTAL PORTUGAL - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
26%
66%
8%
-0.1%
3.0%
-1.8%-0.9%
0.4% 0.6% 1.2%
2.4%2.8%
3.8%
2.6%
1.2%
3.6%1.2% 2.7%
3.4%0.3%
3.7%0.2%
2.9%
2.5%
4.2%
1.8%
0.3%
3.1%
4.0%
1.6%
6.1%
3.0%
6.7%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
24
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TOTAL PORTUGAL – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL PORTUGAL – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Grocery Products 38.3%
Dairy Products 18.0%
Personal Care 11.2%
Alcohol Drinks 10.7%
Household Care 8.1%
Non Alcohol Drinks 6.9%
Frozen Products 6.8%
4.2%
3.9%
2.3%
3.1%
7.0%
3.8%
10.6%
3.7%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 16.4%
Top 6-10 8.0%
Top 11-30 14.3%
Top 31-100 12.1%
100+ 20.1%
Private Label 29.3%
4.2%
2.7%
1.7%
4.7%
3.2%
6.8%
4.3%
Beverages had the strongest performance thanks to a very hot
summer season and new sugar tax on Non alcoholic drinks
Private Label recover growth in 2017 following retailers’ investments in
this area
25
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SPAIN SNAPSHOT
Spain has undergone an economic recovery over the last few years with increasing
GDP and unemployment levels starting to decline (even though it still stands at a
high rate of 16.6%). This feeling of optimism is reflected in Spanish consumers’
increasing confidence. While Europe remains steady, Spain posted a consumer
confidence increase of two points in the last quarter reaching the highest index
score of 93 in the last ten years.
In 2018 it will be a real challenge for the FMCG industry to improve on these very
positive figures (+4% in value in 2017). Bank of Spain CPI’s predictions for 2018 is
similar to 2017 levels, which together with an ageing population makes volume
growth difficult in the coming year. It seems that tourism is going to be one of the
main drivers of growth in our market, and consequently an important opportunity for
the industry. The commercial surface in Spain has also grown moderately (1.4%) so
we are facing an increase in the profitability of square meters that can be
comparable to the pre-crisis situation.
The composition of Spanish households is changing. Spain is facing an increasingly
aging population where in over half of households (56%), the main housekeeper is
over 50 years old. In parallel, household size is also shrinking every year whereby
singles account for one in four households. These are key issues for manufacturers
and retailers to consider moving forward as they look to the emerging demands and
requirements of smaller and older households. These “new” shoppers place
increasing importance on convenience stores and convenient product formats as
consumers seek out products and services that meet their needs for smaller pack
sizes and have more limited storage space in their homes.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
3.23.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2
-0.3
0.8
2.7
2.01.9
1.6
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
80 77
8691 91 93
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU ES
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) GDP estimate or Q4 2017
Gustavo Nuñez
Managing Director
Iberia
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
26
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4.0%
0.4%
4.7%
3.8%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Drug Stores
TOTAL SPAIN – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
2017 closed with three months of continuous growth driven by a favorable
economic environment, improved weather conditions and growing tourism.
Supermarkets (including Discounters) are leading growth mainly
due to the performance of larger stores
TOTAL SPAIN - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
16%
79%
5%
-0.3%
1.8%
0.8% 0.4% 0.1%
-0.3%
0.0% 0.2%1.7% 2.1%
3.9%
2.1%
2.2%1.7%
3.5%3.9%
2.2%2.7%
2.5%
3.2%3.6%
4.0%
3.1%
2.1%
3.6% 3.6%
2.2%
2.9%
4.2%
5.3%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
27
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Categories related to a convenience offering are driving high growth in Q4
TOTAL SPAIN – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL SPAIN – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Packaged food 25.3%
Drinks 15.2%
Health & Beauty 12.1%
Household 8.4%
Cooked meats 8.2%
Canned food 6.4%
Frozen food 5.5%
Dairy 5.3%
Milk and shakes 5.0%
Cheese 4.5%
Ready meal 4.0%
4.0%
3.7%
5.2%
2.9%
2.8%
5.4%
5.1%
5.7%
0.1%
0.5%
4.0%
11.0%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 10.9%
Top 6-10 5.5%
Top 11-30 12.0%
Top 31-100 10.0%
100+ 20.8%
Private Label 40.8%
4.0%
-0.6%
2.0%
2.4%
3.0%
8.3%
4.2%
Stable share for Private Label in 2017, thanks to the growth of some PL-
oriented retailers
28
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UK SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
2.0 2.0 2.11.9
1.71.5
1.0
1.5
2.2
2.6 2.72.8
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
98106
102 99 99 96
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU GB
Steve Smith
Managing Director
United Kingdom & Ireland
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) GDP estimate or Q4 2017
The continued economic uncertainty around Brexit, and consumers becoming
slightly more cautious, hasn’t yet translated into a significant slowdown in UK
consumer spend. Albeit lagging behind other major European countries, the UK
economy finished 2017 with GDP growth of 1.8%.
This is good news for retailers and manufacturers, and is thanks in part to strong
consumer confidence among UK shoppers. In the last part of the year, FMCG
growth hit 4% driven in large, driven by the return of inflation, after two years of
deflation, and the continued growth of the discount channel (Aldi and Lidl) who
have focused on expanding their store footprint across the UK. FMCG volume
growth also improved in 2017 ending the year at +2.9%.
The UK enjoys a developed trade structure which brings with it the benefit of scale
and this is evident with retailers and manufacturers working closely together to
avoid passing on cost price increases to shoppers. We should remain confident
that FMCG spend will continue at current levels over the first part of 2018,
although discretionary spend will come under increasing pressure, particularly in
the non-food and out-of-home channels. With the rise in inflation, and a fall in real
incomes for many households, strategies that help shoppers manage their overall
household budgets will be key to ensure that if inflation continues, which is the
expectation of the Bank of England, shoppers don’t begin to trade down.
Private label growth hits a new high of 53% of total store value sales (including
fresh foods) and we expect the growth to continue, particularly in premium Private
label. Manufacturers will need to be mindful of this, as well as the acceleration of
the discounter market share which hit 14% of total FMCG sales. By continuing to
support the major supermarkets, brands will play a key role to sustaining category
volume growth. Finally, the industry will need to closely monitor whether shopping
behaviors are impacted when the outcomes of the Brexit negotiations emerge later
this year.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
29
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FMCG sales growth peaked at 4% in Q4 driven largely by inflation. This is
driving more store visits as shoppers look to make savings by shopping around
TOTAL UK - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
1.2%
1.2%0.2%
-1.9% -1.6%-0.4%
0.5%3.0% 2.4%
1.2%
-0.7%
1.7%
0.2%
1.4%
2.2%
1.7%
-0.3%
1.0%
0.6%2.8%
0.5%
2.9%
0.4%
-0.4%
0.7%
1.3%
0.1%
4.0%
3.0%
4.0%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
TOTAL UK– CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
DETAILS NOT AVAILABLE
30
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TOTAL UK – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Fresh Food 35.2%
Impulse 11.3%
Beer, Wine & Spirits 11.2%
General Merchandise 8.8%
Tobacco 8.4%
Ambient Grocery 8.1%
Health Beauty Toiletries & Baby 7.9%
Household & Pet 5.4%
Frozen 3.7%
2.9%
4.8%
3.4%
4.7%
-1.1%
-1.8%
3.6%
0.4%
1.5%
6.2%
Health and wellness trend is driving Fresh Food growth, and as people increasingly
dine at home, growth is evident in Impulse and Beer, Wine and Spirits categories.
TOTAL UK – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
DETAILS NOT AVAILABLE
31
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CONTENTS
SECTION 2
THE BIG PICTURE: EUROPE CENTRAL & EAST
Message from Roberto Pedretti and Daniel Chorbadjian………………………………........... 32
EUROPE AT A GLANCE Key economic drivers……………………………………………………………………..…..……33
Looking through Europe FMCG lens………………………………………….……… …….….. 35
COUNTRY SNAPSHOT
Belarus……….………………………………………….……………………………..……………36
Bulgaria……….………………………………………….…………………………...……………..39
Croatia……….………………………………………..….…………………….……… ….………..42
Czech Republic………………………………………….……………………….......................... 45
Estonia………………………….…………………….……………….…………..…………………48
Greece………………………………………………..…………………………...………………… 51
Hungary…………………………………………………………………………...………………… 54
Israel……………………….……………………………………………………….………………. 57
Kazakhstan……………………….……………………………………………….……………….. 60
Latvia……………………….……………………………………………………………………….. 63
Lithuania………………………………..…………….…………………………………………….. 66
Poland………………………………………………………………………………....................... 69
Romania…………………………………………………………………………........................... 72
Russia…………………………………………………………………………..…......................... 75
Serbia……………………………………………………………………………………………… 78
Slovakia……………………………………………………………………………………..……… 81
Slovenia………………………………………………………………………………………… …...84
Turkey……………………………………………………………………………….......................87
Ukraine..……………………………………………………..…………………………..................90
IN THE INDUSTRY
Retail Channel Universe Update……...………………………………………………………… 101
32
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THE BIG PICTURE: EUROPE EAST/CENTRAL
Daniel Chorbadjian
Managing Director
Eastern Europe
Cluster - Emerging
Markets
Roberto Pedretti
Group Managing
Director Turkey and
Central Eastern
Europe
Welcome to the Q4 2017 edition of the European Quarter by Numbers –
Central and Eastern Europe. This quarter we add five new markets; Belarus,
Israel, Kazakhstan, Serbia and Slovenia to expand our viewpoint across 19
markets to give you a greater perspective across our vast region.
The recent editions have highlighted a number of common themes and this
quarter is no exception. As we look across the viewpoints from our market
leaders there is a common theme - although positive economic conditions
prevail, manufacturers and retailers' willingness to accept price inflation, in
many cases has not been matched by consumers’ confidence to pay more,
with volume deflation a common occurrence. It should be noted however that
even in markets that are experiencing this volume shrinkage in certain basic
categories, there are other categories that are growing in volume where
inflationary prices have been accepted and value growth has increased.
This could be seen as a sign that consumers are not only making decisions on
price points within a product group but are potentially making decisions across
product groups based on their own value equations. It is a pertinent reminder
that having a clear understanding of price sensitivity is key and that some
products may have to exercise a more conservative approach in light of
positive economic conditions.
With strong GDP growth and low unemployment figuring prominently across
our markets, there have been some external commentators observing that the
uncertainty evident outside of Eastern Europe is making the region a more
attractive area for investment and consolidation of trade. It is certainly a time of
positive business and consumer sentiment and although there have been
some specific instances in dips in consumer confidence since Q3, it rounds out
a year where this measure grew with some countries hitting record highs. This
positivity has generally translated into positive news for the FMCG industry
with all 19 markets enjoying nominal growth for the quarter rounding off a year
where the volume and value sales have been buoyant.
The challenge in 2018 will be to continue evolving and focusing on the
mechanics that are driving growth as these positive conditions will not
guarantee success for everyone. Consumers’ lives are changing in Eastern
Europe. Consumers are becoming more discerning about choice with
convenience, healthy options and premium offerings examples of areas where
consumers are increasingly willing to spend. On the whole, consumers are
feeling more positive across 2017 as economic conditions and their own
finances seem to be improving. As this sentiment is expected to continue, it
will be advisable for the industry to maintain a strong focus on how their
brands, products and services are aligned to consumers’ value equation and
ensure they deliver on consumer expectations before raising prices.
Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
GDP and Inflation reflect % change per annum to Q4 /latest available data
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)/local government sources & Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index reflects Q4 2017
EUROPE CENTRAL & EAST
MARKETS AT A GLANCE
ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS
AROUND EUROPE
The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index measures perceptions of local job
prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer
confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of
optimism and pessimism, respectively.
Some sharp increases in concern over terrorism and health weighed
heavily on the minds of many of the markets that saw decline in
consumer confidence
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
Q4 2017Q4 2017 vs
Q3 2017
GDP
(annual %
growth)
Inflation
ROMANIA 90 -8 6.9 3.3
LATVIA 73 -6 4.7 2.6
BELARUS 60 -3 4.3 4.9
HUNGARY 74 -2 4.9 2.3
KAZAKHSTAN 81 -2 4.2 7.5
TURKEY 112 -2 - 11.9
SLOVAKIA 86 -1 3.4 2.0
CROATIA 73 -1 2.0 0.8
POLAND 104 -1 5.1 2.2
SLOVENIA 83 -1 6.2 1.3
RUSSIA 69 -1 2.4 2.6
GDP
(annual %
growth)
Inflation Q4 2017Q4 2017 vs
Q3 2017
5.1 2.6 CZECH REP. 104 3
2.2 14.0 UKRAINE 61 3
3.8 4.2 LITHUANIA 79 1
3.5 2.7 BULGARIA 89 1
5.3 3.8 ESTONIA 81 1
2.9 0.3 ISRAEL 103 0
2.5 2.9 SERBIA 69 0
1.8 0.6 GREECE 60 0
33
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38
26 26
33 33
23
3428
47
25
38
28
52
41
23
30
3742
48
29
3732 33
2724
20
31
13
26
37
2430
4137
29
38
17
28
44
37
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU IL KZ LT LV PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UAPutting into savings New clothes
19
26
2124
33
2219
2630
16
31
37
22
3127
2528
37
12
2119
9
3
20
6 6 68
12
52
5
20
6 75
911
37
4
0
10
20
30
40
EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU IL KZ LT LV PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UAHealth Terrorism
Savings was the most popular use for spare cash after expenses
were taken care of.
WHAT ARE THE TOP 2 CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?
WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?
Type of concern
After living expenses, how is spare money spent
Bars reflect Q4 2017. Table shows comparison to Q3 2017
EUROPE CENTRAL & EAST
MARKETS AT A GLANCE
Bars reflect Q4 2017. Table shows comparison to Q3 2017
* HR = Croatia
* HR = Croatia
CONSUMER SENTIMENTS IN
EUROPE
EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU IL KZ LT LV PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA
Health 1 0 -4 5 7 5 2 1 -1 -2 1 6 -4 -2 5 5 3 6 1 0
Terrorism -6 -5 0 -4 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -6 -4 -5 -2 -1
EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU IL KZ LT LV PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA
Putting into savings 1 -8 -5 -3 3 -5 -3 -6 1 0 -1 4 -1 9 0 3 2 -2 12 -1
New clothes 1 -5 -7 3 1 -2 -6 -7 -1 3 1 0 -2 -3 4 -1 0 -2 7 0
34
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LOOKING THROUGH EUROPE CENTRAL & EAST
FMCG LENS
FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS
Weighted average – EUROPE GROWTH & EMERGING – 19 countries
WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?
Average volume growth Q3 2017 & Q4 2017
*BL = Belarus, HR = Croatia, RS = Serbia , SI = Slovenia
COLOUR CODING INDICATES GROWTH OR DECLINING TREND COMPARED TO AVERAGE OF Q3 & Q4 2016
Avg. volume growth decreasing versus last period
Avg. volume growth increasing versus last period
RUSSIA (+0.8%)
CZECH REP. (-0.1%)
ESTONIA (-3.7%)LATVIA (+0.4%)LITHUANIA (-2.4%)
UKRAINE (+5.7%)
ROMANIA (+3.2%)
BULGARIA (+5.3%)
TURKEY (+4.5%)
GREECE (+5.8%)
POLAND (+2.7%)
SLOVAKIA (+1.6%)
HUNGARY (+1.8%)CROATIA (0%)
BELARUS (+2.5%) KAZAKHSTAN (-4.4%)
ISRAEL (+1.8%)
SERBIA (-1.2%)
SLOVANIA (+1.9%)
2.5%4.8% 5.4%
6.5%
0.6%
2.1% 4.7%
0.5%
6.7%
3.3%
7.3%
2.0%
5.2%
3.3% 1.8% 2.2% 3.5%
12.3%
8.8%5.9%
4.9%
0.7%
-3.9%
5.9%
-0.5%
3.6% 2.1%
-4.6%
1.1%
-2.7%
4.0%
4.0%
-0.5%
1.2%2.5%
4.1%
4.5%
7.0%
8.4%9.7%
6.1%
2.6%
6.4%
1.6%
8.2%
2.6% 2.0%
4.4% 4.7%6.0%
9.3%
2.9% 3.0%
4.6%
7.5%
16.8%15.8%
BG BV CZ EE GR HR HU IL KZ LV LT PL RO RS RU SI SK TR UA
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
35
36
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BELARUS SNAPSHOT GDP growth grew by 2.4% in Belarus for 2017 versus 2016 after a two-year
recession caused by the steep drop in oil prices. Growth is attributed to strong
industrial output, Russia’s recovery and better external trade conditions with the
restoration of oil and gas supplies. 2017 marked the lowest inflation in the history of
sovereign Belarus. For the first time, inflation fell to less than 10%, and year-to-year
CPI landed at 6.0%, accompanied by very moderate local currency devaluation.
Despite this improved situation in 2017, public debt and unreformed state
enterprises, "expensive" loans and weak support for the unemployed remain cause
for concern. Consumer confidence has increased in the back half of the year based
on consumers’ increasingly positive sentiment to job prospects and personal
finances evidenced by an increase in consumption with improved FMCG volume
sales in Q4.
Modern trade continued growing in Q4 2017, as a result of the transition from
traditional grocery stores to modern format. Retailers and manufacturers are
focusing to capitalize on this growth and therefore competition is escalating with
intensified promotional activities.
In these improving conditions, consumers are more open to trying new products,
willing to indulge in small ‘luxuries’ and trading up to more premium products. It is
key for FMCG players to target a balance of tactical wins and longer term loyalty
and brand building. Increasing discount levels and extending the periods of
promotional activities could lead to a pricing war. This represents a challenge for
brands with low price sensitivity becoming highly dependent on price and
promotions which do not necessarily translate to sales uplift. Retailers and
manufacturers should be focusing on segmenting consumer needs, understanding
the path to purchase including both bricks ‘n’ mortar and online routes while
developing a healthy mix between short-term wins and longer term equity building
for their brands.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
-3.4 -1.7
0.4 1.7 2.94.3
11.711.0
7.66.3
5.4 4.9
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
55 55 55 53
63 60
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU BL
Source: GDP and Inflation; local government sources
Vaios Dimoragas
Managing Director
Ukraine and Belarus
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
37
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10.0%
9.2%
14.7%
2.3%
11.7%
2.9%
Total FMCG Hyper/Supermarket (Food Categories) Groceries Modern Trade (Food Categories)
Groceries Traditional Trade (Food Cat) Kiosks + Other Markets (Food Categories) Drug Categories
TOTAL BELARUS – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Volume sales recovered in Q4 2017, as a result of economy stabilization and
strengthening consumer confidence . Value sales decline is reflective of lower
inflation levels
Faster growth of Groceries in Modern Trade is due to the conversion of
Traditional Trade into modern format.
Kiosks and Other Markets growth is due to price increases in this channel
TOTAL BELARUS - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
52%
31%
7%3%
7%
13.7%9.0%
14.0% 13.8%
13.4%14.9% 14.5%
9.3%6.7%
4.8%
3.1%1.0%
2.2%5.5% 4.4%
-1.1%
0.4%
-0.4%
0.2%
4.9%
16.8%
10.0%
16.2%
19.3%17.8%
13.8% 15.0%
8.9%6.9%
9.7%
MAT YA MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
38
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Coffee growth is driven predominantly by assortment expansion and
promotional activities of main players to drive market share whilst Chocolate
growth has come from innovation/additional support of chocolate tablets
TOTAL BELARUS – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL BELARUS – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
While top 1-5 manufacturers continue to dominate the market, it is important
to watch the development of smaller manufacturers and Private Label
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Dairy 23.8%
Beer 22.7%
Beverages 17.2%
Chocolate 10.7%
Coffee 8.6%
Personal Care 4.8%
Snacks 4.7%
Candies 4.2%
Home Care 1.9%
Grocery 1.5%
10.0%
13.5%
4.4%
5.0%
16.5%
16.2%
3.7%
14.1%
17.7%
0.8%
30.2%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 29.1%
Top 6-10 14.0%
Top 11-30 27.3%
Top 31-100 19.2%
100+ 5.4%
Private Label 4.9%
10.0%
12.0%
1.8%
8.1%
19.7%
0.6%
9.9%
39
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79
81 81
8587 87
79
84
75
85
8889
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU BG
3.0
4.3
3.63.9 3.8
3.5
-0.3 -0.3
1.7
2.3
1.6
2.7
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
BULGARIA SNAPSHOT Bulgaria’s economic landscape continues to be in a very positive position with GDP
above 3% growth for the seventh consecutive quarter coinciding with a further drop in
unemployment and double digit wage growth. Consumer optimism reflects this
situation as well as growth in the FMCG market which displayed the highest value
growth in several years at 8.4% in Q4 2017.
Bigger format stores continue to lead the way, assisted by the opening of around 20
new outlets from major supermarket and drug store chains. Interestingly, Traditional
trade is starting to recover in Q4 boosted by excellent performance across its
destination categories. The majority of super categories are performing well,
showcasing that shoppers are allocating part of the additional disposal income in
FMCG purchases or they are trading up to more premium products (like in drug
categories).
Promotion continues to be a key dynamic at play across the Bulgarian retail
landscape. Almost half of Modern Trade value sales (49.1%) were sold on promotion
in Q4 2017. This promotional dependence is evident across many super categories
excluding baby food with up to a third of sales on promotion for many categories. If we
also consider the number of retailers engaged in EDLP activities at the beginning of
Q4 and the same retailers also increased the amount of promotions, it should come as
no surprise we are seeing a rise in volume consumption .
Looking forward, we expect the market to remain strong despite the lack of significant
expansion from retailers in the foreseeable future. Economists however have raised
concern that if wages keep rising at the same rate and no investments are made to
boost productivity, then the likely result is further inflation which may compromise
economic growth. Within FMCG, the challenge will be how to optimize pricing and
promotional strategies to drive long term category growth instead of short term uplifts.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source EIU and local government sources
Svyatoslava Svyst
Managing Director
Bulgaria / RV Leader
Eastern Europe
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
40
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6.7%
9.9%
9.2%
3.9%
2.0%
10.5%
Total FMCG Supermarkets/Hypermarkets Extra Large Food Stores
Large Food Stores Traditional Trade Drug Stores
TOTAL BULGARIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Strong performance in FMCG as consumers leverage additional
disposable income in a heavily promoted environment
Bigger formats lead the way due to new store openings and
increase in promotions. Signs of recovery from Traditional Trade.
TOTAL BULGARIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
41%
13%
19%
24%
4%
1.8%2.4%
1.8% 1.4%1.8%
1.4% 0.8%
2.2% 3.0%2.5%
0.8%
4.4%
0.5%
0.9%
1.0%2.7% 3.2%
3.8%
4.7% 5.9%
2.6%
6.7%
2.3%2.3%
2.8%
4.1% 4.0%
5.9%
7.8%
8.4%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
41
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Salty Snacks are performing above market growth helped by
aggressive promotional activity
TOTAL BULGARIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL BULGARIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Both leading and challenger manufacturers show strong growth.
Despite new launches and increased communication, Private Label
trails overall growth.
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 17.0%
Top 6-10 11.1%
Top 11-30 20.5%
Top 31-100 22.6%
100+ 25.8%
Private Label 3.1%
6.7%
7.0%
2.8%
8.1%
10.6%
4.4%
3.6%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Chilled Products 25.2%
Alcoholic Drinks 18.7%
Confectionery 15.1%
Non Alcoholic Beverages 11.9%
Personal Care 7.2%
Household 6.9%
Salty Snacks 5.1%
Hot Beverages 4.4%
Shelf Stable Food 3.0%
Baby Categories 1.3%
Petfood 1.2%
6.7%
7.0%
7.5%
6.5%
5.5%
5.2%
3.5%
11.8%
7.7%
6.1%
3.6%
18.0%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
42
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CROATIA SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source: DZS – Croatian Bureau of Statistics.
Andrey
Dvoychenkov
Group Managing
Director Adriatic
Region
79 81 8185 87 87
6673
69 7074 73
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU HR
3.13.5
2.63.0
3.3
2.0
-1.5
-0.5 -0.4
0.1
-0.5
0.8
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
Although Croatia’s macroeconomic conditions continued to be predominantly positive
across 2017, the Agrokor crisis still hangs heavily over business investment. Croatia’s credit
rating is improving but it has been tempered by these recent challenges. Croatian
consumers are increasingly optimistic across 2017 with almost half believing their personal
financial outlook is excellent or good in the coming twelve months.
In FMCG however Q4 2017 bought a decline in volume growth attributed to negative
performance of Dairy products, Confectionery and Raw meat/meat products. The impact of
volume erosion was offset slightly by price increases in almost all Food categories.
The retail landscape in 2017 was quite conservative from a promotional perspective, with a
lack of sharp price points and lower discount frequency which fueled climbing prices across
the majority of Food categories. The performance of Hypermarkets and Discounters across
Modern Trade have outpaced the market. Discounters are continuing to test new store
concepts leaning towards more supermarket formats that focus on promoting branded
products whilst at the same time offering “consumer-pleasing” premium private label
offerings. Supermarkets, which account for one third of the market, are struggling with their
performance driven by declines in their largest category, Fresh meat as a result of higher
costs and less promotional activity. Positive value growth in Beer, Cheese, Mineral water,
Coffee and Yoghurts have not been able to compensate for these losses in the Supermarket
channel.
The Top 20 manufacturers (excluding Private Label) account for 43% of total FMCG and are
just outpacing the total industry, mainly driven by the Top 5 manufacturers’ performance.
Among the top 20, almost 60% of the sales belong to local manufacturers which are growing
at a higher rate. Local manufacturers have been more flexible in adjusting their strategy
during the Agrokor crisis which resulted in better performance during 2017 compared to the
market average. In 2018, all economical eyes will be directed to the outcome of the Agrokor
financial settlement, which will have a big effect on the overall economical and investment
environment. We can further expect strengthening of Discounters as well as market
concentration. But ultimately, manufacturers and retailers need to focus on the key decision
makers - the shoppers who will still pursue an efficient shopping experience seeking good
value for money.
43
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2.1%
5.3%
-0.9%
1.0%
-5.5%
9.9%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets
Traditional trade** Kiosks/Tobacconists Discounters
TOTAL CROATIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Inflation drives the industry performance with minimal promotional
activity leveraged to drive consumption
Hypermarkets and Discounters are outpacing market growth with a
focus on premium Private Label and branded promotions
TOTAL CROATIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4 2017
20%
32%
36%
1%11%
*bi-monthly databases - periods shown are quadrimesters (periods of 4 monthhs)
**Drugstores channel is included in Large groceries (part of Traditional trade)
. .
FMCG excludes Tobacco/Cigarettes
-1.4%
2.5%
0.5% 0.1%
-2.6%
-1.1%
0.2%
2.4%
2.6%2.1%
3.5%
-0.4%
1.8%
3.2%
4.3%
1.7% 0.9%
-1.2%
0.4%
-0.5%
2.1% 2.1%2.3%
3.3%
1.7%
0.6%1.1% 1.2%
3.0%
1.6%
MAT YAMAT TY Q2 15 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
44
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Beverages have been enjoying strong growth due to a hot
Summer season
TOTAL CROATIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL CROATIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Top 5 players and Private Label accounts for 80% of the total FMCG
growth
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Beverages 26.4%
Meat and Meat Products 16.4%
Dairy Products 15.7%
Confectionery 10.7%
Personal Care 10.1%
Packed Food 8.4%
Household Care 4.6%
Frozen Food 4.1%
Salted Snacks 2.8%
Baby Food 0.8%
2.1%
6.0%
-1.1%
5.7%
-2.1%
-0.6%
0.9%
-1.0%
4.0%
0.4%
-1.3%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 18.5%
Top 6-10 11.2%
Top 11-30 20.7%
Top 31-100 14.4%
100+ 18.0%
Private Label 17.2%
2.1%
3.9%
2.5%
0.2%
0.4%
-0.2%
6.2%
MAT Q4 2017 MAT Q4 2017
FMCG: excluding Tobacco
Total FMCG growth is different for Manufacturer Performance at 2.8% as *Raw meat Refrigerated category was not included in the total
.
MAT Q4 2017 MAT Q4 2017
45
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79 81 8185 87 87
98 99103 101 101 104
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU CZ
CZECH REPUBLIC SNAPSHOT 2017 was a great year for the Czech economy with Q4 GDP growth increasing to
5.1%, the best quarter in the year, resulting in annual growth of 4.5%. Whilst
unemployment reached historic low levels, manufacturers and retailers are cautious
as low unemployment can have the effect of pushing up wages and costs. However
it is expected that price inflation will not exceed 2% in 2018 and GDP forecasts
range between 3 and 4%. Consumer sentiment reflects the positive economic
environment with increasing optimism across all key measures of job prospects,
personal finances outlook and now being a good time to buy.
2017 was also a year of solid value growth for FMCG. After years of marginal
inflation, price increased between 3 to 6 % throughout the year, while volume
remained flat. This price inflation was driven in many instances by consumers
trading up to more premium products as well as increasing prices in Food rather
than Drug categories. One of the most sensitive segments was Dairy with a peak in
Q3 due to increased costs in products like Butter.
Private labels did not move in these conditions and kept a flat share in the Czech
market. They will potentially need to adjust their strategy to reflect a more positive
consumer environment. Larger manufacturers currently appear to have a more
internal focus with corporate restructuring, while smaller manufacturers appear to
be more flexible towards the market and consumers.
High consumer confidence in light of increasing wages translates to a consumer
environment more open to premium offerings and price points. It is essential in
times of increasing costs (both labor costs and many commodities) to focus on
profitability by understanding consumers’ spending priorities. With this in mind,
2018 will be a year to focus on smart promotional and pricing optimization based on
a thorough knowledge on consumer requirements and a solid understanding of the
retail and market environment.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Q4 GDP local government source
1.8 1.8
3.0
4.75.0 5.1
0.5
1.5
2.42.2
2.5 2.6
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
Karel Tyra Managing Director,
Czech Republic
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
46
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4.8%
2.5%
7.6%
8.1%
2.4%
7.8%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Discounters Traditional Trade Drugstores
TOTAL CZECH REPUBLIC – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
TOTAL CZECH REPUBLIC - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
Record growth in Q4 driven by increasing prices and consumers
switching to more premium segments and products.
Drug stores maintain strong performance while Hypermarkets are
losing to more convenient shopping formats
40%
17%
21%
14%
8%
-0.3%
4.9%
-0.8% -1.1% -0.4%
1.2%
3.4%4.7%
6.1%
5.4%
2.7%
-0.1%
2.3%3.0% 2.3%
2.9%
-0.7%
0.4%
-0.9%
0.7%
2.4%
4.8%
1.5%1.9% 1.9%
4.0%
2.7%
5.1%5.2%
6.1%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
47
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Despite big manufacturers continued growth, smaller players are on a
faster trajectory given flexibility to respond to consumer needs
Significant price increases in Dairy are driving growth
TOTAL CZECH REPUBLIC – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL CZECH REPUBLIC – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Dairy 19.0%
Beverages Alcohol 16.7%
Sweets & Treats 14.5%
Health & Beauty 12.0%
Culinary - Shelf Stable 10.0%
Beverages Non Alco 8.6%
Beverages Hot 4.2%
Home Care excl. Laundry 3.2%
Home Care - Laundry 2.3%
Pet Care 2.3%
Infant Care 2.1%
Culinary - Frozen 1.9%
Baking - Shelf Stable 1.6%
Frozen 1.4%
Culinary - Refridgerated 0.2%
4.8%
6.5%
6.6%
5.2%
4.8%
2.9%
5.0%
1.3%
4.2%
1.3%
3.0%
0.7%
4.4%
5.9%
3.8%
5.9%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 16.2%
Top 6-10 8.1%
Top 11-30 17.9%
Top 31-100 20.8%
100+ 18.2%
Private Label 18.9%
4.8%
2.8%
2.4%
5.0%
7.2%
6.2%
3.9%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
48
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ESTONIA SNAPSHOT Estonia’s economy continued to grow with GDP reaching a high of 5.3% for Q4
2017 supported by growth in private consumption, declining unemployment and
increased wages. At the same time, inflation also increased at +3.8% in Q4
2017 with increasing prices expected to impact consumer’s choices and
reluctance toward spending. While consumers are increasingly optimistic
across 2017 compared to 2016, this is driven by positive sentiment to job
prospects rather than consumers believing now is a good time to buy.
Despite strong economic performance, FMCG market consumption is slowing
down. Negative volume consumption remains the key challenge driven by
inflation. Alcoholic categories which contribute 18.3% of value share to FMCG
was a major contributor to the volume erosion across 2017 with a decline of
4.2%. Although Private Label still captures only 7.9% of value share (across
total FMCG), its growth of +5.5% (almost double the industry) indicates
shopper’s willingness to try alternatives to branded products.
Store expansion has driven the performance of large Supermarkets with growth
at 10% for 2017. Consumer’s evolving need for convenience and proximity has
driven the growth of Convenience/Petrol stations by +6.9% and Drug stores
/Pharmacies by +5.9%
Accelerated FMCG volume decline throughout 2017 poses a real challenge for
market players. It will be critical for manufacturers and retailers to ensure trade
spend is optimized as well as a focus on genuine innovation to guarantee
continuous growth in 2018. The positive consumer environment coupled with
price inflation and volume erosion suggests that there are opportunities for
manufacturers and retailers to optimize price points that resonate with
consumers and guarantee profitable sales lift.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source: OECD
2.5
3.2
3.9
5.3
4.5
5.3
0.41.3
3.0 3.1
3.7 3.8
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
70
84
72
83 81 81
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU EE
Ilona Lepp
Managing Director
Baltics
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
49
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2.8%
-0.4%
10.0%
0.2%
-5.8%
6.9%
5.9%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Large Supermarkets
Small Supermarkets/Discounters Superettes Conveniences/Petrol Stations
Drug Stores+Pharmacies
TOTAL ESTONIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Peaking inflation elevates FMCG value, however accelerating
volume declines remain the key market challenge
Due to new openings, large supermarkets are thriving and have
reached double digit growth
TOTAL ESTONIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
24%
33%
31%
8% 1%2%
2.1% 6.1% 0.7%1.2%
2.8%
3.4%
4.8%5.7%
6.9% 6.5%
-0.2%-3.3%
2.0%-0.1% -1.5%
-0.6%-2.4% -2.7%
-3.8% -3.9%
1.9%2.8% 2.6%
1.1% 1.3%
2.8% 2.5% 3.0% 3.1%2.6%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
50
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Domestic Alcohol sales have decreased due to alcohol trade on
Latvian border driven by increase of excise tax
TOTAL ESTONIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL ESTONIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
After several years of deflation and flat FMCG prices, inflation has
returned to the market. Large companies are capitalising on strength in
negotiation power for price increase ahead of smaller companies
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Chilled and Frozen products 38.9%
Alcoholic Drinks 18.3%
Shelf Stable Food 9.2%
Personal Care 7.5%
Confectionery 6.4%
Non Alcoholic Beverages 6.2%
Household products 4.0%
Hot Beverages 3.4%
Snacks 3.2%
Pet Care 2.2%
Baby Food 0.8%
2.8%
7.2%
-4.2%
1.2%
0.9%
1.9%
2.6%
2.1%
2.5%
7.1%
2.3%
7.4%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 23.0%
Top 6-10 11.8%
Top 11-30 22.1%
Top 31-100 16.9%
100+ 18.3%
Private Label 7.9%
2.8%
3.3%
4.9%
1.7%
1.9%
2.0%
5.5%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
51
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1.2
-0.9
0.4
1.6
1.3
1.8
0.1 0.3
1.51.4
0.80.6
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
GREECE SNAPSHOT Since the beginning of 2017, the Greek economy has started to show signs
of recovery with many macroeconomic indexes, such as GDP, inflation and
unemployment presenting improved trends. Greek consumers continue to be
more optimistic in the later half of 2017 compared to early 2017 and 2016
levels but significantly below European averages.
This wider upturn in the market is also evident in the FMCG market, where
demand has increased and at the same time price inflation has started to
emerge. The reactivation of the ex-Marinopoulos stores seem to have
boosted overall consumption and the Hypermarket format has benefited
displaying double-digit growth, 15.1% versus Q4 2016.
Within FMCG, there are several super groups that present positive trends,
among which are Confectionery and Beverage categories, both Non-
alcoholic and Alcoholic (5.7% and 3.5% respectively), of which a big part of
this growth is linked to increased taxation.
While FMCG is growing by 2% overall, it is worth pointing out that the Top 5
suppliers in the Greek market suffered share losses, whereas smaller and
local players managed to gain share in many categories, predominantly
through innovation, locality claims and competitive pricing.
Even though 2017 has been a year of marginal recovery for the Greek
economy and market, there is little base for confident predictions for the
future with a sense of instability at play in the political environment, which
has added a cautiousness to consumers’ spending.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
79 81 8185 87 87
5256
53 5260 60
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU GR
Vicky Grigoriadou
Managing Director
Greece
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
52
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2.0%
15.1%
1.0%
1.5%
-1.7%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Large Supermarkets Small Supermarkets Superettes
TOTAL GREECE – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
The re-activation of the ex-Marinopoulos stores especially after Q2
seems to have boosted consumption
The re-activation of ex-Marinopoulos stores is driving the strong
performance of Hypermarkets, increasing the store count in this channel
TOTAL GREECE - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
10%
39%36%
15%
3.1%
-0.4%
5.4% 4.5% 2.5%
-0.3%
-0.6%
-0.5%-0.8%
0.6%
-9.8%
2.3%
-12.2% -15.3%-8.7%
-2.6%
-4.8%
2.4%5.8% 5.9%
-6.7%
2.0%
6.8%
-10.7%
-6.2%
-2.9%
-5.4%
1.9%
5.0%6.4%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
53
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Beverages and Confectionery categories are performing well however
Health & Beauty value is in decline due to aggressive promotions
TOTAL GREECE – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL GREECE – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Smaller and more flexible players are putting MNCs under pressure with
their ability to respond more quickly to changing market conditions
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 21.7%
Top 6-10 10.0%
Top 11-30 21.3%
31+ 31.8%
Private Label 15.2%
2.0%
-1.3%
0.5%
1.7%
5.7%
0.6%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Dairy & Refrigerator Cat. 23.6%
Grocery 23.1%
Non Alcoholic Drinks 12.1%
Health & Beauty 11.7%
Confectionery 9.0%
Alcoholic Drinks 6.4%
Household 6.2%
Detergents 4.4%
Paper Products 3.4%
2.0%
1.0%
2.4%
5.7%
-1.2%
5.0%
3.5%
0.4%
0.0%
-1.6%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
54
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HUNGARY SNAPSHOT
FMCG performance in Hungary soared by 8.2% in Q4 2017 to set a record
across recent years with the full year closing at 5.9% growth compared to a
more moderate increase in 2016 (2.8%). All retail channels increased faster in
Q4 than Q3, however Discounters and Drug Stores remain the main drivers.
Consumers’ emerging need for an enjoyable shopper experience, convenience
and proximity are driving this trend supported by retailers’ low prices, strong
advertising presence and new store openings.
Super categories are seeing this healthy growth momentum across the board
with even the biggest categories outpacing average growth. Inflation remains
stable around 2% which is good news for consumers. Food and petrol inflation
may accelerate overall price increases in the second half of 2018 but inflation is
likely to stay below 3% in mid to longer term.
External and internal economic conditions are stable supported by rising
consumer optimism in 2017 across all measures of job prospects, outlook in
personal finances and a good time to buy. However, increasing salaries and
low unemployment rates create a challenging labor market environment for
manufacturers, retailers and marketers alike in terms of talent attraction and
retention - a major pressing issue for the year ahead. When it comes to growth
opportunities, innovation, new products and added value to existing products
will be key.
Nonetheless, with the Hungarian economy having reached its expected growth
potential of 4%, the upcoming period is crucial for all FMCG market players.
Those who act in a smart and bold manner in the coming months will be well
placed in the upcoming years.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) OECD
2.3 2.1
3.93.7
4.1
4.9
0.01.3
2.6
2.12.4 2.3
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
5764 64
7076 74
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU HU
Kateryna
Edelshtein
Hungary Market
Leader Buy & Watch
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
55
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5.9%
3.1%
4.3%
12.9%
2.8%
9.6%
4.1%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Large Organized Discounters
Small Organized Drug Stores Independent Stores
TOTAL HUNGARY – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Both Food and Drug markets contributed to the value growth. Five out of
the top ten Food categories grew by double-digit in Q4 versus last year
All channels experience improved momentum in Q4 vs Q3
experiencing faster growth with the exception of Independent stores
TOTAL HUNGARY - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS OFFLINE
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
26%
15%
23%
17%
7%
12%
1.2%
4.4%
1.4% 0.8% 0.8% 1.4%2.1%
2.8%
5.1%
4.7%1.6%
1.5%
0.1%1.9% 1.6%
2.9%1.3%
3.6%
0.1%
3.6%
2.8%
5.9%
1.5%
2.8%2.3%
4.3%
3.4%
6.4%
5.3%
8.2%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
56
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Growth is evenly balanced across manufacturer tiers
TOTAL HUNGARY – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
Private Label outpaces branded products in both Food and Drug categories
Total FMCG includes Private label but Private label is not included in manufacturer tiers
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Dairy Products 15.4%
Processed Meat 12.9%
Non Alcoholic Beverages 11.3%
Alcoholic Beverages 9.7%
Personal Care 8.9%
Dry Grocery 8.4%
Cleaning / Household 5.9%
Confectionery 5.5%
Hot Beverages 3.7%
Frozen Foods 3.6%
Snacks 3.0%
Household Paper 2.9%
Petfood 2.8%
Biscuits/Wafers 2.7%
Breakfast 2.0%
Baby Care 1.3%
5.9%
7.4%
6.9%
8.4%
5.7%
5.7%
1.9%
3.0%
5.0%
3.7%
4.5%
8.1%
4.4%
9.9%
4.3%
7.7%
5.0%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 20.2%
Top 6-10 11.7%
Top 11-30 20.9%
Top 31-100 23.0%
100+ 24.4%
5.9%
4.1%
4.5%
5.8%
5.1%
5.4%
TOTAL HUNGARY – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
57
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79 81 8185 87 87
93 95100 102 102 103
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU IL
ISRAEL SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source OECD & Economic Intelligence Unit
4.54.7
3.8
3.2 3.22.9
-0.6 -0.3
0.5 0.4
-0.2
0.3
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
Offer Levy
Managing Director Israel
The Israeli economy saw relatively consistent growth across 2017 with impressive
growth of 3.3% (annual rate) in 2017 (comparing to 2016) setting the economy in good
stead for 2018. Exports (excluding start-up companies and diamonds) grew at an
accelerated rate of 7.7%, led by exports of services, especially tourism and high-tech.
Private consumption continues to expand particularly among lower income households
due to ongoing improvements in the labor market, the availability of cheap credit, and
lowering taxes on consumption. Throughout 2017, Israeli consumers have maintained
confidence about job prospects, future personal finances and being the right time to buy
supported by low inflation.
Despite positive economic conditions, the FMCG industry has seen marginal value
growth, driven predominantly by volume consumption. Recent government legislation
into food labeling introduced in November has influenced food trends. Food products
high in sugar, fat and sodium were to adhere to strict labeling changes however a
month before its implementation date, the legislation was postponed for two years.
Despite the postponement, the surrounding buzz has increased consumer awareness
towards health with healthier and fresh products experiencing new growth. However,
conversely indulgent categories also performed well in different categories from
different branches. The strengthening of the premium segment is seen both inside the
store and out of home, as consumers seek more value-added experiences.
Like many markets around the world, the digital landscape is transforming Israel’s retail
environment at a rapid pace. This is evident in Israel with four leading retailers
launching online shopping websites throughout 2017. As the home of many tech start
ups, Israel consumers are becoming early adopters of new technology trends, so it is
vital to ensure retailers and manufacturers are keeping up with the pace.
Looking forward, the recent labeling legislation is just a sign of growing awareness and
importance of health trends and manufacturers need to be thinking and planning ahead
to ensure their portfolio will fit with consumers evolving health needs. In a low
inflationary environment, Israel consumers are prepared to pay more for premium
products, as long as the value is justified with additional consumer benefits.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
58
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0.8%
2.3%
-0.7%
6.5%
-3.0%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets And Discounters Supermarket Convenience Stores Private Minimarkets
TOTAL ISRAEL – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
FMCG growth has picked up in Q4 coming from the periphery regions and not
from the Centre region which contributes half of the FMCG sales
Discounters are growing in Food and Home Care due to a better price offering
while Convenience stores give a comfortable, on the go shopping experience
TOTAL ISRAEL - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
59%24%
2%
15%
-0.1%-0.9%
1.9%
-3.8%
0.1%
-3.3% -2.0% -1.3%
-2.4%
0.5%
-1.5%
1.8%
-6.3%
4.5%
0.0% 0.3%
2.6% 2.3%1.6%
2.1%
-1.6%
0.8%
-4.4%
0.8%0.2%
-2.9%
0.5%1.0%
-0.7%
2.6%
MAT YA MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
59
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The Food super category is showing stronger growth driven by
growing health trend and focus on fresh and healthy food
TOTAL ISRAEL – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL ISRAEL – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Small manufacturers and PL are growing at the expense of
major manufacturers, mainly in competitive Food categories.
In many categories, PL growth comes from new product launches
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Food 76.2%
Beverage 11.4%
Personal Care 6.2%
Home Care 6.2%
0.8%
1.2%
-0.7%
-1.3%
0.7%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 35.6%
Top 6-10 8.8%
Top 11-30 11.8%
Top 31-100 9.9%
100+ 28.1%
Private Label 5.8%
0.8%
-1.5%
-1.1%
1.7%
1.1%
2.5%
8.8%
60
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KAZAKHSTAN SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Local government source. Q4 forecast
1.5 2.5 3.1
5.34.2 4.2
16.2
11.7
7.7 7.5 7.1 7.5
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79
81 81
85
87 87
77
81
7879
83
81
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU KZ
Ilona Lepp
Managing Director
Baltics
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
Kazakhstan’s macro economy is improving with GDP projected to be 4.2% in Q4
2017 and inflation levels across 2017 almost half those seen in 2016. Moreover,
growth and stabilization of crude oil prices in 2017 has resulted in better exchange
rates and conditions for international trade. However the devaluation of the tenge
has dramatically affected prices for consumer goods, utilities, clothing, property and
others.
Official government statistics report average nominal salary increases have grown
by 5% compared to last year and total retail sales are up 10% in 2017 compared to
2016. This inconsistency between increased spend versus wage levels
demonstrates the increasing popularity of small fast loans and credit card debt
especially among low income households. Consumers however are increasingly
optimistic driven by positive sentiment towards future job prospects.
Nielsen Measured FMCG demonstrates almost 5% value growth compared to 2016
largely driven by Tobacco and Beer categories. 60% of shoppers state they face
budget limitations when shopping. Given the current economic situation and price
increases seen in Kazakhstan, almost 38% of shoppers today are looking for
promotions (compared to 25% in 2016). Some categories already are becoming
reliant on promotions, especially in the Non-food segment. Despite the growth of
promo-oriented shoppers, a similar percentage of shoppers claim the store
environment and customer service is important when shopping.
Overall, with stabilized crude oil prices and exchange rates, 2018 is expected to
have a positive impact on the economy which will flow onto the retail environment.
Moreover, with the end of EXPO 2017 project ,there is an expectation that in 2018
the government will be able to spend more of its budget on salary increases for
government workers (doctors, teachers etc). that should have a positive effect on
consumer spending. In addition, the growing popularity of credit card and small
loans represents an opportunity for all retailers to leverage such services. It has
already shown great results in apparel business even for low price brands.
61
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4.4%
5.1%
2.2%
-4.9%
-6.3%
-5.9%
3.2%
Total FMCG Supermarkets Open markets Kiosks & Pavilions Pharmacies Perfumeries Others
TOTAL KAZAKHSTAN – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
FMCG market is driven by inflationary price pressures with volume
consumption declining throughout 2017
Stronger performance of Large stores is a result of evolving
modern trade development in Kazakhstan
TOTAL KAZAKHSTAN - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
90%
3%
3%1%1%
3%
13.6% 8.5%9.2% 14.8%
16.3%
13.8%
11.0%
7.9%6.5%
6.2%
-0.2% -4.1%-4.5%
2.2%3.6%
-0.9% -2.7%-4.5%
-3.9% -4.1%
13.3%
4.4% 4.7%
17.0%
19.8%
12.9%
8.3%
3.4%2.7% 2.0%
MAT YA MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
62
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SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Tobacco 28.3%
Beverages 23.4%
Dairy 12.3%
Personal Care 9.8%
Food 8.9%
Confectionery 7.1%
Alcohol 6.4%
Home Care 2.3%
Baby Food 1.1%
Pet Food 0.3%
Baby Care 0.1%
4.4%
5.6%
3.0%
9.3%
1.1%
2.4%
-0.9%
9.3%
5.3%
-0.4%
23.2%
6.9%
Strong performance of Dairy is driven by Fresh Refrigerated Milk and
Alcohol with end of year accounting for 20-30% of their annual sales in Q4
TOTAL KAZAKHSTAN – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL KAZAKHSTAN – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Local manufacturer have seen stronger performance in some
categories due to lower price (especially in milk products)
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 34.3%
Top 6-10 12.4%
Top 11-30 25.2%
Top 31-100 18.7%
100+ 9.4%
4.4%
5.8%
10.4%
0.2%
8.4%
-3.8%
63
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LATVIA SNAPSHOT After hitting a peak of 6.2% growth in Q3 2017, the Latvian economy continues to
thrive with 4.7% growth in Q4 2017. Rising wages and the low unemployment is
stimulating household spending and the growth of retail sales while inflation is
slowing down from 3.1% at Q2 to rest at 2.6% at the end of 2017. Positive
momentum is also expected from increased demand of Latvian production and
export. Consumer optimism dipped slightly in Q4 2017 but overall remains higher
than the dip seen at the same time last year.
The FMCG market is witnessing positive development as nominal value growth
reached 4.4% in Q4 2017 versus same period last year with 1.1% increase in
volume. The slowdown in unit value growth is reflective of overall inflation declines
seen throughout the years with some softening in prices which is helping to drive
consumption.
Small Supermarkets / Discounters show strong performance with 5.1% growth
while Hypermarkets/Large supermarkets/ Drug stores which account for almost
half of the market (47% of share) grew by +3.6% behind industry levels.
Consumers evolving needs for convenience products boosted the performance of
Snacks (8.9%), Chilled and Frozen food (8.1%), Baby food (7.9%), Pet care
(6.8%) and Confectionery (5.4%) within 2017. Private Label, which accounts for
more than 10% of the market show no signs of slowdown, growing ahead of the
industry at 6.2%.
The Latvian market is enjoying growth and all indicators point toward continuing
prosperity and development in 2018. With stability in the market, retailers and
manufacturers should use this time to search for the most effective ways to
leverage trade spend and stimulate consumer spending with innovation.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
0.6
2.7
4.2
4.9
6.2
4.7
0.21.5
3.2 3.1 2.92.6
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
75 7469
78 7873
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU LV
Ilona Lepp
Managing Director
Baltics
Source: OECD The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
64
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4.5%
3.6%
5.1%
4.2%
6.7%
13.8%
Total FMCG Hypermarket/Large Supermarkets+Drugstores
Small Supermarkets/Discounters Superettes
Conveniences/Petrol Stations Pharmacies
TOTAL LATVIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
FMCG is enjoying positive momentum driven predominantly by
inflationary prices with volume consumption improving in Q4
Channels are benefiting across the board indicating shoppers
inclination to larger / everyday shopping missions
TOTAL LATVIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
47%
37%
15%3%1%
1.3%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
1.8%2.5%
4.4% 4.6% 4.2%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
0.9%
1.9%0.5%
0.3%
-0.3%
0.8%
0.1%1.1%
2.6%
4.5%
2.8%2.6%
2.3%
2.9%
4.1%
5.4%
4.2%4.4%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
65
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Changing consumer habits towards convenience boosts many categories
including Snacks, Chilled and Frozen food, Baby food, Pet care and
Confectionery categories.
TOTAL LATVIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL LATVIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Smaller and more flexible players are thriving and putting bigger companies
under pressure
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Chilled and Frozen products 33.2%
Alcoholic Drinks 18.5%
Shelf Stable Food 11.9%
Personal Care 8.3%
Non Alcoholic Beverages 7.0%
Confectionery 6.4%
Household products 4.3%
Hot Beverages 4.2%
Snacks 3.3%
Pet Care 2.1%
Baby Food 0.9%
4.5%
8.1%
1.2%
1.8%
3.3%
2.8%
5.4%
2.1%
1.7%
8.9%
6.8%
7.9%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 18.4%
Top 6-10 9.2%
Top 11-30 19.2%
Top 31-100 21.2%
100+ 21.8%
Private Label 10.2%
4.5%
2.2%
1.7%
4.1%
7.0%
5.0%
6.2%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
66
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LITHUANIA SNAPSHOT In the final quarter of 2017, the Lithuanian economy grew by +3.8% ending a
year of consistent performance. Although rising inflation is slowing consumer
spending, we have witnessed one of the fastest periods of wage growth which
points to an optimistic outlook on household consumption. This is evident by
increasing consumer optimism, up five points in Q4 2017 compared to same time
year ago. A positive international trade environment and a boost in demand of
Lithuanian production and export related sectors are expected to have positive
knock-on effects.
FMCG saw signs of recovery in Q3 2017, which stabilised in Q4 with 4.7%
nominal value growth. Market development remains driven by inflationary price
factors and premium tier spending whilst volume continues to be down on last
year.
New openings and shifting shoppers’ preference in channels saw the decline of
Hypermarkets by -3.2% while large and small Supermarkets grew respectively by
6.1% and 2.8% in 2017. Convenience/petrol stations and pharmacies channels
continue to thrive with the respective growth by 8.2% and 10% in 2017.
The Lithuanian market is enjoying positive momentum; however accelerating
inflation became one of the key concerns which is affecting internal consumption.
As consumers continue to seek the best value proposition, it is important for
retailers and manufactures to understand the price sensitivity of their offers. This
will be critical to ensure maximum effectiveness in trade spending and targeted
promotions and ensure profitable growth enables reinvestment in innovations for
long term success.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
2.2
3.2
4.0 4.1
3.63.8
0.7
1.2
2.8
3.5
4.44.2
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79
81 81
8587 87
73
76
74 73
7779
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU LT
Ilona Lepp
Managing Director
Baltics
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
Source: OECD
67
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2.1%
-3.2%
6.1%
2.8%
-0.3%
8.2%
3.5%
10.0%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Large Supermarkets
Small Supermarkets/Discounters Superettes Conveniences/Petrol Stations
Drug Stores Pharmacies
TOTAL LITHUANIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Although the Lithuanian market is still heavily driven by inflationary
price factors, volume declines are stabilizing more recently
Hypermarkets remain challenged by changing shopper preference, while
new openings boost performance of large Supermarkets
TOTAL LITHUANIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
22%
24%39%
8%
1%4%
2%
2.2%6.7%
3.3%1.2% 2.4%
2.2%4.3%
7.0%7.1% 7.3%
-2.1%-4.6%
4.0%
-0.7%
-6.0% -5.0%-7.8%
-4.6%
-2.5% -2.7%
0.1%2.1%
7.3%
0.6%
-3.5%-2.8%
-3.4%
2.5%
4.6% 4.7%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
68
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Majority of categories are growing in value with rising prices but
constant promotions in Household products are not always
effective in encouraging shoppers to buy more
TOTAL LITHUANIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL LITHUANIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Private Label continues to put pressure on all manufacturers as
consumers seek out value in an environment of rising prices
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Chilled and Frozen products 28.4%
Alcoholic Drinks 24.0%
Shelf Stable Food 10.9%
Personal Care 10.3%
Non Alcoholic Beverages 6.4%
Confectionery 5.8%
Hot Beverages 4.4%
Household products 4.2%
Snacks 3.1%
Pet Care 1.8%
Baby Food 0.7%
2.1%
3.0%
2.2%
-2.7%
2.8%
3.8%
2.0%
2.3%
-0.8%
7.4%
3.9%
0.6%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 17.6%
Top 6-10 9.0%
Top 11-30 21.5%
Top 31-100 22.5%
100+ 19.6%
Private Label 9.8%
2.1%
1.9%
3.8%
0.6%
1.7%
0.7%
8.4%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
.
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
69
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78 79 81 8187 87
8287 91 88
104 104
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU PL
POLAND SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Q4 GDP Trading Economics
2.3
3.2
4.4 4.3
5.2 5.1
-0.9
0.2
2.0 1.8 1.82.2
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
Szymon
Mordasiewicz
Managing Director,
Poland
Poland’s economy continues to perform strongly with GDP at 5.1% in Q4
contributing to the annual growth rate of 4.6% - the highest since 2011. Poland’ s
Central Statistical Office contributes household consumption as the lead driver of
overall GDP growth which grew by 4.8% and was the biggest contributor to
growth. Inflation levels throughout 2017 have been higher than those recorded in
2016 driven predominantly from rising prices in food, housing and transportation.
Poland’s economy is viewed with much positivity with investments increasing by
5.4% after a 7.9% decline a year ago. Foreign trade did little to contribute to GDP
in 2017 (with only 0.1% contribution) which highlights the growing importance of
domestic consumption and foreign investments as drivers of this positive
momentum. This positivity is also reflected in consumer confidence with Poland
ranked in the top five most optimistic consumers across Europe in Q4 2017.
Poland’s FMCG market grew by 6% in Q4 2017 with all distribution channels for
Food and Drug categories contributing with the exception of Hypermarkets for
Drug categories. Discounters performance was strongest across all channels
which is the continuation of a successful strategy mixing an appropriate portfolio of
products, promotions and pricing. Dairy’s growth can be attributed to raw material
price increases while Snack and Confectionary performance was strong due to
introduction of small portion snacks and health products.
A new Polish law that seeks to phase out retailing on Sundays has been set in
motion in 2018 and there is great debate on how this will affect the industry in the
long-term. This new legislation will start with a store opening ban of two Sunday’s
per month with some exceptions for small owner-run stores and petrol station.
However the plan is to increase the ban to three weeks in 2019 and with a
complete ban on Sunday trading effective by 2020. While the impact is uncertain,
there are views that this will shift consumption patterns but not overall spending
levels. What is certain is that it will be a new dynamic that all players must adapt
to.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
CCI not available for Poland Q1 and Q2 2017
70
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4.3%
-0.6%
3.9%
8.8%
6.3%
1.8%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Discounters Drugstores Small Format
TOTAL POLAND – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Strong economic environment and positive consumer sentiment
is behind increasing consumption
Decline of Hypermarkets is driven by Drug categories
performance. There has been a visible shift of Drug sales
towards Drug stores and Discounters
TOTAL POLAND - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
11%
15%
32%7%
35%
0.9%
2.8%
-0.1% -0.1%
0.8%2.0%
2.0%
2.2%
3.1%
2.0%
3.4%1.5%
6.3%4.1%
1.8%
2.8%
-1.0%
3.1%1.5% 4.0%
4.4% 4.3%
6.1%
4.1%
2.6%
4.8%
1.0%
5.4%
4.6%
6.0%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
71
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Growth continues to be driven by companies beyond Top 10 suppliers
Dairy growing mainly from raw material prices. Snacks & Confectionary
growth resulting from small portion packs and pro-health products
TOTAL POLAND – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL POLAND – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Alcoholic Beverages 23.1%
Culinary 16.8%
Non-Alcoholic Beverages 14.1%
Dairy 13.8%
Confectionery 11.5%
Cosmetics Categories 8.5%
Paper Sanitary Hygiene & Other 4.7%
Home Categories 4.4%
Frozen Products 3.0%
4.3%
1.5%
3.0%
4.0%
9.3%
7.6%
4.2%
4.6%
2.2%
4.1%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 16.0%
Top 6-10 10.9%
Top 11-30 20.0%
Top 31-100 17.3%
100+ 16.3%
Private Label 19.5%
4.3%
1.5%
3.7%
5.0%
5.8%
6.7%
3.2%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
72
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ROMANIA SNAPSHOT Romania's economy continued to grow throughout 2017, with GDP showing
one of the highest increases over the last few quarters across the EU. This
positive momentum was due largely to increases in consumption following
the fiscal initiatives implemented during 2016 and 2017. However, the last
quarter of 2017 brought some turmoil on the political and social scene.
Debatable legislative changes, delays in applying promised benefits for
various social segments and political battles between state institutions are
degrading the overall economic atmosphere. Inflation has started to rise
following 2 years of a deflationary trend.
Romanians’ optimism has declined for the second quarter in a row. After
jumping to a historical peak of 101 points in Q2, consumer confidence index
reached 90 points in Q4, from 98 in Q3.
FMCG registered a 9.3% nominal growth in Q4, with the price increases
responsible for more than half of the growth. The Organized Trade continues
to be dominated by Hypermarkets, who accelerated pace in Q4 2017, but
Supermarkets remain the most dynamic based on store expansion.
Traditional trade, which still accounts for approximately 40% of the market,
also increased in Q4 due to inflationary prices but remains behind total
industry growth. Most FMCG categories registered healthy growth, with Non
Alcoholic beverages, Processed meat and Dairy products being the largest
and most dynamic categories.
Economists continue to issue warnings on the officially communicated
growth predictions, based on unsustainable consumption, lack of public
investments and legislative instability. While Romania shows significant
growth overall in 2017, caution is advisable in planning similar growth for the
following year.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Q4 GDP National Institute of statistics & Q4CPI National Bank of Romania
4.34.8
5.76.1
8.8
6.9
-0.5 -0.5
0.2 0.7 1.5
3.3
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 8786 87 85
101 9890
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU RO
Luca De Nard
Managing Director
Romania
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
73
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7.4%
6.8%
18.4%
6.7%
3.9%
-2.4%
13.5%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Super/Minimarkets
Discounters Traditional Trade Pharma/Cosmetics
Petrol Stations/Convenience
TOTAL ROMANIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Consumption continues to be the economic growth trigger as
value increases in line with the higher inflationary rate
Supermarkets growth continues through store expansion
TOTAL ROMANIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
29%
18%
11%
40%
1%1%
-2.1%
3.8%
-7.1%-4.1%
0.4% 0.2% 1.1% 1.7% 4.6% 5.2%
11.3%3.6% 15.6%
13.2%10.9% 8.4% 5.3% 4.8%
2.4%4.0%
9.2%
7.4%8.5% 9.1%
11.2%
8.6%
6.4% 6.5% 7.0%
9.3%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
74
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Fresh food and Non Alcoholic beverages drive the growth,
following increased consumer demand. Household and other
Non-food sales lag behind the overall growth
TOTAL ROMANIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL ROMANIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Smaller manufacturers outside of the top 10 continue to enjoy the
increasing buying appetite of consumers due to innovations and
increased market presence
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Dry Grocery 29.4%
Fresh Food 22.9%
Beverages - Alcoholic 14.4%
Beverages - Non Alcoholic 13.2%
Personal Hygiene/Cosmetics 8.3%
Household Care 7.7%
Frozen Food 3.0%
Non Food 1.1%
7.4%
6.4%
12.9%
5.2%
8.1%
5.3%
3.7%
4.9%
-4.2%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 16.4%
Top 6-10 9.6%
Top 11-30 18.5%
Top 31-100 21.1%
100+ 22.0%
Private Label 12.3%
7.4%
5.5%
5.9%
11.9%
9.2%
5.0%
5.9%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
75
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Amid record-low inflation in Russia in 2017 consumer spending has been revived.
According to official statistics, consumer expenditures grew 3.4% in 2017 mostly
driven by online purchases, imported products and international travel. However,
experts claim that spending is driven mainly by growing credit and debt especially by
lower-income consumers, so the current consumer landscape is still not healthy.
Consumer confidence remained steady and relatively pessimistic throughout 2017.
Spending on FMCG posted positive dynamics in Q4 2017 with sales volumes up
1.2% which is a level not seen during the past two years. However this scenario is
not seen as sustainable. There have been shifts in the retail landscape, with a
number of top retailers trying new formats, for example, opening proximity stores by
hypermarkets, or re-considering their format portfolio moving away from formats that
are least profitable. This experimentation is a sign of rapid change in the way
consumers shop.
Even though consumers seem more able to spend in the current environment, it
does not seem to be transferring to their FMCG budget. However expectations are
increasing with lower prices, better quality assortment and convenience emerging as
key themes. All three components of today’s “best shopper experience” are
increasingly offered by online retailers, either pure online stores or omni-channel
stores. Online sales still account for a low share in most categories with the
exception of Pet and Baby but given the growing consumer acceptance on this
channel, it is time for retailers and manufacturers alike to focus and accelerate their
e-commerce offerings..
Looking forward, the first half of 2018 is expected to be a great time for business
growth for a number of key reasons. Firstly, with the upcoming Presidential elections
the economic environment will be held as stable as possible and it is likely that public
sector employees (who account for 20% of the Russian workforce) will receive salary
indexation or other forms of financial grants. Secondly; the upcoming World Football
Cup 2018 is expected to drive consumption with both visitors and locals.
RUSSIA SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
-0.4
0.4 0.5
2.41.9
2.4
6.9
5.7
4.64.2
3.4
2.6
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
66 6763
70 70 69
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU RU
Alexander Kotsuba,
Managing Director
Nielsen Russia
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
76
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3.2%
6.4%
-4.9%
Total FMCG Modern Trade Traditional Trade
TOTAL RUSSIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
FMCG volume consumption has increased due to economic stability
and holiday consumption in Q4
Modern trade formats continue to expand with experimentation in
new formats by key players at the expense of Traditional Trade
TOTAL RUSSIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
74%
26%
8.2%
3.6%
9.6%
7.2% 7.5%7.0%
5.8%3.3% 1.9% 1.8%
-0.7% -0.4%
0.1%
-0.5%
0.3%
-2.2% -2.4%
0.1%
0.4% 1.2%
7.5%
3.2%
9.7%
6.8%7.9%
4.8%
3.4% 3.5%
2.3%3.0%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
77
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Smaller manufacturers and Private Label exceed average market
development levels due to lower price offerings
Alcohol sales are strong compared to last year due to more affordable SKUs,
specialist stores’ expansion and trade promotion
TOTAL RUSSIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL RUSSIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Other Food & Drinks 28.1%
Tobacco 14.3%
Dairy 12.7%
Beer 8.6%
Personal Care & Make-Up 7.0%
Vodka 6.2%
Sauces & Grocery 4.9%
Premium Alco 4.8%
Home Care 3.2%
Pet 2.7%
Baby Food & Infant Formula 2.3%
Frozen Food & Fish 1.9%
Ice Cream 1.8%
Baby Care 1.3%
3.2%
2.1%
6.3%
5.2%
-2.0%
4.1%
0.0%
-0.8%
13.2%
0.0%
6.5%
5.6%
4.4%
2.6%
1.2%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 19.9%
Top 6-10 12.4%
Top 11-30 16.6%
Top 31-100 16.7%
100+ 30.3%
Private Label 4.1%
3.2%
3.1%
1.8%
2.5%
3.5%
3.8%
4.9%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
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Serbia’s economic environment continues to stabilize and investors’ risk perception
improves. The business climate and external environment is also more positive
supporting Serbia’s export sector. Despite public-sector layoffs, total unemployment
in Serbia is actually falling as many new jobs are being created in the private sector,
particularly in manufacturing. If overall unemployment continues to fall as the private
sector flourishes, it is anticipated that household consumption will continue to rise
and support growth.
While consumer optimism remains stable throughout 2017, job security is cited as
consumers’ top concern, which is inline with consumers’ relatively low level of
optimism for job prospects in the next 12 months. According to the official statistics,
in 2017 real GDP grew by 3% with forecasts anticipating growth up to 3.4% in 2018.
Inflation is predicted to continue to decelerate with most economic indicators in
2017 supporting this optimistic view. This has no doubt flowed into consumer
spending with spending on FMCG increasing by 2.9% in Q4 2017.
Serbian shoppers spend RSD 28.179 (€ 229) on food and groceries in a year, which
while €79 lower than the European average, is stable compared to 2016. Out of this
budget, 50% is spent on fresh food. The general perception is that prices for food is
increasing. Consumers are trying to cut back on their living expenses by looking for
discount prices and buying only essential things. Luxury products are not top of
mind or top of their shopping lists. Although Private Label has only 6.1% of value
share, shoppers increasingly recognize Private Label as a value alternative to
branded products.
This year, it is rumored discounter chain Lidl will enter the Serbian market, which
will certainly change the market landscape. Existing retailers are already preparing
proactive strategies for this market disruption. For FMCG manufacturers, the
entrance of a major Discounter chain presents a heightened opportunity to
differentiate their offering or risk a head on challenge as there is little doubt
Discounter brands and Private Label will change the way consumers shop as seen
in other markets across Europe.
SERBIA SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Local government source
2.82.5
1.11.4
2.1
2.5
1.0
1.5
3.1
3.7
3.0 2.9
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
6467 69 69 69 69
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU RS
Andrey
Dvoychenkov
Group Managing
Director Adriatic
Region
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
79
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TOTAL SERBIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
While growth in FMCG is reflective of price increases, as inflationary pressures
have lessened, consumption in the FMCG market has picked up In Q4
Drug stores are performing particularly well driven by new store openings as
well as consumers switching to this format and visiting more often
TOTAL SERBIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
29%
28%
22%
14%
4%3%
0%2.1%
2.4%
9.8%
-7.5%
-0.9%
11.7%
14.3%
0.3%
Total FMCG Hyper/ Super Large Groceries Small Groceries Kiosks/ Pavillions Drug Stores Petrol Stations Pharmacies
3.7%
3.6% 4.6%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%3.9%
3.3%
0.0%
-1.4% -0.1%
0.6%
-1.2%-2.0%
-2.0%-0.5%
3.7%
2.1%
4.4% 4.2%
2.4%
1.3%1.9%
2.9%
MAT YA MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
80
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Tobacco which has the biggest impact on overall FMCG growth has performed
well due to price increases
TOTAL SERBIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL SERBIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
While global manufacturers dominate the Top 10, two key local giants
are keeping up the pace successfully operating in Food categories
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Tobacco 29.8%
Food Fresh Refrig. 14.6%
Beverages Non-Alcoholic 13.8%
Confectionary And Snacks 11.8%
Beverages Alcoholic 8.1%
Personal Care 7.4%
Food Shelf Stable 6.7%
Household Products 5.1%
Frozen 2.5%
Pet Food 0.3%
2.1%
2.7%
3.5%
2.9%
0.6%
-1.0%
4.8%
-1.0%
-0.5%
6.9%
15.8%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 34.1%
Top 6-10 10.5%
Top 11-30 22.5%
Top 31-100 17.0%
100+ 11.6%
Private Label 4.2%
2.1%
3.6%
-0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
6.6%
1.4%
81
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SLOVAKIA SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Q4 2017 estimate
3.0 3.0 3.13.4 3.5 3.4
-0.7 -0.1
1.0 1.0
1.6
2.0
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79
8181
85
87 87
8181
82
85
87
86
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU SK
Karel Tyra Managing Director,
Slovakia
2017 was a positive year for the Slovak economy. GDP growth reached 3.4 %
and it is anticipated that it could be even stronger in 2018 and 2019. Declining
unemployment is assisting this positive momentum. The economy is supported
by wage growth which is accelerating inflation and increasing household
consumption. This development influences the retail sector and the FMCG
market is growing on the back of increasingly confident consumers with a
positive outlook on job prospects.
The FMCG market in Slovakia continues its strong performance with growth of
7.5% in Q4 2017 supported by strong volume consumption as well as price
growth. Drug categories have been a strong driver of volume growth which is
behind the exceptional performance of this channel. In Food, Dairy accounts for
the largest percentage of consumers’ spend and is growing at the fastest pace
due to increasing prices across a number of categories. In these favorable
conditions, both big and small manufacturers are growing and the only players
falling behind are Private Labels. This is due to a complexity of reasons – but
predominantly the heavy promotional environment driven by branded players is
eroding into Private Label’s low price territory and their lower quality offering is
making it difficult to compete. Private Label is starting to improving its quality
offering to fight back in this space.
The positive market conditions surrounding the FMCG market (with growth, up-
trading and confident consumers) also brings increasing costs (such as wages
and commodities) which will force many manufacturers and retailers to
reconsider their pricing and promotional strategy. Companies with a focus on
smart optimization based on a detailed knowledge of price sensitives and cross-
effects will be set to win driving profitable growth and not just volume expansion.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
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6.3%
6.2%
6.5%
1.2%
12.9%
Total FMCG Hyper/SupermarketsOrganized Groceries Non Organized GroceriesSK Organized Drug
TOTAL SLOVAKIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Strong FMCG growth in Q4 is supported by volume as well as pricing
growth
Drug retailers’ are clear winners in the market, while only the Non
Organized channel has not benefited from this buoyant market
TOTAL SLOVAKIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS*
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
61%
27%
6%6%
*Restatement of 2016 Coop back data with Q4 17
-1.3%
3.1%
-1.8%-1.8% -1.5% -0.2%
2.6% 3.2%4.9%
3.5%
3.2%
3.2%
4.0%
2.0% 4.1% 2.7%
1.7%
6.1%
-0.7%
4.1%
1.9%
6.3%
2.3%
0.2%
2.6% 2.5%
4.3%
9.3%
4.2%
7.5%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
83
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All manufacturers are enjoying growth in a very positive market
environment
Dairy accounts for largest share of FMCG and its strong performance has
been driven by increasing prices
TOTAL SLOVAKIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL SLOVAKIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Dairy 18.5%
Sweets & Treats 17.2%
Beverages Alcohol 16.6%
Health & Beauty 10.5%
Culinary - Shelf Stable 9.9%
Beverages Non Alco 9.0%
Beverages Hot 4.8%
Frozen 3.1%
Home Care excl. Laundry 2.7%
Home Care - Laundry 2.2%
Baking - Shelf Stable 2.2%
Infant Care 1.9%
Pet Care 1.5%
6.3%
9.9%
5.9%
6.4%
6.4%
4.1%
5.2%
3.3%
6.0%
7.0%
3.7%
4.1%
5.9%
7.5%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 14.4%
Top 6-10 10.3%
Top 11-30 16.8%
Top 31-100 18.7%
100+ 19.2%
Private Label 20.6%
6.3%
6.3%
5.3%
6.8%
7.8%
6.8%
4.9%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
. .
84
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79 81 8185 87 87
6469
62
74
84 83
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU SI
SLOVENIA SNAPSHOT
Slovenia is starting to see benefits from improvements in the economic environment
and favorable conditions. Economic growth has primarily come from increased
household consumption, not only through increased loans, modest public spending
and gross fixed capital formation but also through a 16% growth in tourist arrivals.
The banking sector continues to recover, and after returning to profitability in 2016 is
contributing to overall economic growth. The employment rate is increasing (3%
annual growth in November 2017) and consumer optimism remains at the highest
levels seen over the last few years close to the European average. The proportion
of consumers who believe that Slovenia is in an economic recession fell to 37% in
Q4 2017 compared to 60% in Q4 2016. Over a third of consumers (35%), think job
prospects will continue to be good in the next 12 months which is the highest
recorded level in the past years and more than double Q3 2016 levels.
In this environment, Slovenia is enjoying strong FMCG growth especially in the
latest quarter at 4.6% driven by both higher volume sales and price increases as
promotional activity was less aggressive than in the past. Discounters continue to
be the driver of channel growth, expanding in square meters with both store
expansion and upsizing existing stores. They continue to adjust their assortment
strategy bringing more brands into their portfolios and aligning with emerging
consumer trends in areas such as bio and gluten free. Increased promotional
activities in this channel focusing on pensioners and sustainable claims have also
helped performance. Growth in Beverages and Meat products have often come
from new and interesting innovations supporting consumers’ busy lifestyles and
growing awareness for healthy products.
Slovenia’s future looks promising with CEEMA recent survey in December 2017
highlighting that more than 90% of businesses expect growth in revenues and 70%
in profits. Slovenia’s economy is expected to grow by more than 3% over the next
two years which hopefully will continue to boost consumer spending.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Local government
3.4
4.44.9
5.45.1
6.2
0.2 0.6
1.81.4 1.2 1.3
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
Andrey
Dvoychenkov
Group Managing
Director Adriatic
Region
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
85
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2.4%
0.5%
1.6%
-3.5%
7.0%
-3.0%
6.9%
5.9%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets Supermarkets Large Groceries
Medium And Small Groceries Kiosks Discounters Drugstores**
TOTAL SLOVENIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Strong FMCG value growth in Q4 was led by both higher volume sales and
price increases coupled with less aggressive promotions
Discounters have driven greatest value growth focusing on Private Labels/Exclusive
brands in Food categories with low prices
TOTAL SLOVENIA - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
15%
42%11%
3%0%
25%
4%
-0.4%
1.6%
-0.7% -0.4%
-1.3% -0.4%
-0.1%
1.1% 0.4%2.2%
-0.2%
0.9%
1.0%
1.6%
1.2%0.0%
-1.5%-0.2%
1.5%
2.5%
-0.7%
2.4%
0.4%
1.2%
-0.1% -0.4%
-1.7%
0.9%
1.8%
4.6%
MAT YA MAT TY Q2 15 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
86
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Above market growth in Beverages and Meat products has often come from
innovations supporting consumers’ busy lifestyles and growing awareness for
healthy products
TOTAL SLOVENIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL SLOVENIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Growth consistent across all tiers. Number one manufacturer, driven by
Beer sales, recorded value growth twice that of total FMCG
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Beverages 24.4%
Dairy Products 16.3%
Meat And Meat Products 14.3%
Packed Food 11.8%
Confectionery 11.1%
Personal Care 9.8%
Household Care 5.8%
Frozen Food 3.1%
Salted Snacks 2.7%
Baby Food 0.5%
2.4%
3.8%
2.1%
3.7%
-0.7%
1.4%
1.2%
-0.6%
6.1%
12.7%
-3.2%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 17.4%
Top 6-10 8.3%
Top 11-30 15.8%
Top 31-100 15.8%
100+ 10.7%
Private Label 32.0%
2.4%
2.3%
2.8%
2.6%
2.7%
2.2%
2.3%
87
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-0.8
4.25.3 5.4
11.1
0.0
7.38.5
11.3 10.9 11.211.9
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
TURKEY SNAPSHOT The Turkish economy showed above normal growth in Q3 2017 coming of low levels
in Q3 2016. Both Turkish domestic spending and exports continued to contribute
strongly to the growth performance. Similar to the first two quarters, households
benefited from the government's policies aimed at boosting demand with initiatives
such as tax discounts in Q3. On top of that, the government’s fiscal stimulus and
nationwide campaign on job creation and credit guaranteed fund loans has resulted in
increased private sector spending – all of which has contributed to growth.
Consumer prices increased sharply throughout 2017 due to government's demand
boosting fiscal policies and increase in the price of imported goods (due to a weakened
TRY). In Q4 inflation hit some of its highest levels at 11.9%.
This inflation has had a significant impact on the FMCG market (excluding Tobacco &
Alcohol) as nominal growth started accelerating from Q1 2017 to reach 16.8% in Q4
2017. While inflationary pressure may have dampened growth, volume growth for 2017
is still ahead of 2016 levels at 5.1% compared to 4.2% respectively.
Comparing Q4 2017 versus Q4 2016, the highest growing sub sectors are Body and
Hair care, Oral care, Dairy and Ice cream. Hair care, Oral care and Dairy recorded
additional price increases above inflation, whereas Body care and Ice cream relied on
strong volume growth. As for Food, health trends are supporting the growth of Nut
Bars, Croquants and Dried nuts, whereas Dairy growth has resulted from strong price
increases in raw milk. Convenience is another trend that leads to stronger growth of
Frozen Food, Noodles, Sachets and Non-chemical Household Cleaners.
Looking forward, manufacturers should continue to seek growth via innovation that
meets consumers’ evolving needs. Health is a key trend, ripe with opportunity as the
consumer, retail and business landscape looks for ways to tap into this growing
consumer trend. Managing pricing and promotional effectiveness across the full
portfolio is also key to ensure optimal brand architecture and profitable growth.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
FMCG: excluding Tobacco/Alcohol
Source Local government – Q4 2017 GDP not available
79 81 8185 87 87
98 9490
107113 112
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU TR
Didem Sekerel
Erdogan
General Manager
Nielsen Turkey, Buy.
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Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
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14.5%
-2.9%
10.0%
10.3%
33.4%
34.4%
3.9%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets
Large & Medium Supermarkets Small Supermarkets
Discounters (A101 BIM SOK) Perfumery
Traditional Trade
TOTAL TURKEY – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Despite Inflation pressures impacting FMCG from the start of
2017, volume growth is still evident
Discounters and Perfumeries show strongest growth mainly
driven by an increase in number of stores
TOTAL TURKEY - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
5%
22%
11%
32%
3%
27%
FMCG: excluding Tobacco/Alcohol
6.3%
9.4%
8.3%6.9%
5.7% 4.6%6.0%
8.5%10.3% 12.3%
4.2%
5.1%
2.6% 3.7%
4.4% 6.0%5.6%
5.6%
4.6%
4.5%
10.5%
14.5%
10.9% 10.6% 10.1%10.6%
11.6%
14.2%14.9%
16.8%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
89
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Hair Care, Oral care and Dairy categories showcase strong
growth driven by additional price increase above inflation
TOTAL TURKEY – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL TURKEY – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Smaller manufacturers, as well as Private Labels are growing fastest as
consumer seek value offerings in face of increasing prices
FMCG: excluding Tobacco/Alcohol
*100+ includes private label brands
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 25.0%
Top 6-10 11.5%
Top 11-30 17.9%
Top 31-100 14.8%
100+ 30.8%
14.5%
10.4%
10.4%
13.0%
12.2%
21.9%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Confectionery 21.4%
Non Alcoholic Drinks 21.2%
Dairy 12.8%
Grocery 12.2%
Housekeeping 7.9%
Paper Products 6.2%
Fats And Oils 5.6%
Body Care 3.8%
Ice Cream 3.3%
Hair Care 2.8%
Oral Care 1.4%
Grooming 0.8%
Other 0.6%
14.5%
15.4%
10.9%
17.2%
13.7%
15.2%
13.8%
12.9%
20.9%
17.1%
18.8%
14.3%
11.3%
13.3%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
90
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Q4 2017 marked a positive ending to the overall FMCG industry in Ukraine. Whilst
inflationary effect on prices was high, volume consumption continued to build at a
faster pace, showcasing the improved spending power of Ukrainian consumers, as
a result wages increased above inflationary levels. Legislative changes and reforms
in the state administration processes that were introduced in 2017 appear to be
working although commentators believe there is still significant room for
improvement, most evident with the fight against corruption.
Consumers feel more empowered to spend but that means they are also becoming
more demanding of products, services and brands. They are looking for a more
positive and exciting shopper experience even with a limited budget. The internet
enables them to research extensively a product or service extensively, seeking
advice before actually making a purchase. This change in consumers’ influencers
and path to purchase provides opportunities for retailers to grow basket sizes and
consumer traffic. It is the Modern Trade channel that are leveraging these new
marketing tools more extensively, mostly at the expense of Traditional trade, which
whilst still important in Ukraine (30%), is losing market share.
At the same time, the fight to attract more shoppers versus their competitors is an
ongoing challenge for retailers. It highlights an opportunity for retailers to work
closer with manufacturers to optimize retail strategy and execution. The shift from
hard negotiations to a collaborative, insight driven approach is going to be key in
identifying opportunities to drive further footfall and category expansion.
In an improving, although yet not fully stabilized market environment, brands (both
retailers or manufacturers) need to listen attentively and respond in smart ways to
consumer needs. In a rapidly developing digital world, shoppers have access to
more information than ever before. In additional to focusing on retail executional
tactics such as assortment and promotions, it is pivotal for companies to create a
digital plan that incorporates their overall marketing strategy.
UKRAINE SNAPSHOT
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX ECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Q4 GDP local government source
2.3
4.8
2.5 2.3 2.1 2.2
8.0
12.3
13.9 13.8
16.2
14.0
Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
GDP growth (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
79 81 8185 87 87
52 50 5257 58 61
Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
EU UA
Vaios Dimoragas
Managing Director
Ukraine and Belarus
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Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen
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13.8%
18.4%
21.9%
23.9%
2.5%
Total FMCG Hypermarkets/Supermarkets MT Minimarkets MT Perfumeries MT Traditional Trade
TOTAL UKRAINE – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
FMCG sales volume improved in Q4 due to economic stability and holiday
consumption while prices remained stable
Modern trade continues to grow driven by the national key players leveraging
more innovative marketing tools
TOTAL UKRAINE - FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q4-2017
52%
12%
6%
30%
16.2%10.0%
27.2%
12.6%9.7% 8.8%
9.7%9.8%
9.9%8.8%
-1.3%
3.8%
-6.5% -0.1%
3.7%0.1% 0.3%
3.6%6.0% 7.0%
14.9% 13.8%
20.7%
12.4% 13.4%
8.9% 10.0%
13.4%
15.9% 15.8%
MAT YAMAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
92
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Dairy growth has come from an easing of regulatory pressure allowing for
increased prices. Baby Food growth is a result of expansion of top players
and new entrants operating in these categories
TOTAL UKRAINE – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL UKRAINE – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Growth in mid-sized manufacturers comes from recent price increases
in Food categories where Top 10 (predominantly Non Food operators)
enjoyed price rises earlier
SUPER CATEGORIES VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Beverages - Alcoholic 21.7%
Beverages - Non Alcoholic Rtd &
Not Rtd20.8%
Confectionery & Snacks 17.8%
Dairy Products 12.6%
Personal Cleaning & Hygiene 9.4%
Household 5.0%
Seasoning & Sauce 4.1%
Baby Care 2.2%
Meals/Meal Mixes Shelf Stable 2.2%
Pet Food 1.9%
Baby Food & Drinks 1.7%
Desserts/Cakes/Sweet Products 0.6%
13.8%
13.2%
9.4%
16.9%
19.2%
13.9%
13.3%
11.9%
8.6%
17.6%
14.0%
20.1%
7.5%
MANUFACTURERS VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
Total FMCG 100.0%
Top 1-5 23.9%
Top 6-10 13.6%
Top 11-30 22.9%
Top 31-100 21.1%
100+ 12.9%
Private Label 5.6%
13.8%
13.5%
11.3%
15.7%
15.2%
13.7%
9.8%
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
MAT Q4-2017 MAT Q4-2017
93
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Store and Chain Banner Universe
BELGIUM
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Total 7201 7163 7163
Hypermarkets 52 52 52
Large supermarkets 866 883 928
Small supermarkets 1746 1751 1706
Superettes 1483 1468 1476
Traditional grocers 3054 3009 3001
Store Universe Numbers
HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² LARGE SUPERMARKETS 1000 - 2500 m2 SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2 TRADITIONAL GROCERS <100 m2
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
OTHER Self Service Excluding
Petrol <400m2 1065 1030
Carrefour 713 728
Delhaize 587 590
Colruyt 572 590
Aldi 444 443
Lidl 291 294
Kruidvat 223 240
Lambrecht Group 127 134
Louis Delhaize 121 120
Di 118 120
Hema 97 96
Other Supermarkets 89 91
Intermarché 79 78
Alvo 57 57
Metro 15 16
Cora 7 7
Chain Store Numbers
IN THE INDUSTRY: EUROPE WEST
94
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FRANCE
Store Universe Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Total 21811 20336 20872
Hypermarkets 2053 2106 2177
Large supermarkets 2944 2951 6198
Small supermarkets 7401 7115 3556
Superettes 9413 8164 8941
HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² LARGE SUPERMARKETS 1000 - 2500 m2 SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2
STORE TYPE 2017 2018
Hypermarkets
Centre E. Leclerc 607 620
Carrefour 228 232
Auchan 136 136
Geant Casino 110 110
Intermarche Hyper 89 87
Hyper U 65 61
Cora 58 59
Les Halles D'auchan 4 4
Auchan City 2 2
Record 1 1
Supermarkets
Intermarche Super 1332 1343
Super U 715 721
Market 508 574
Carrefour Market 523 455
Casino 357 365
Monoprix 310 311
Simply Market 291 152
Auchan Supermarche 0 131
Match 123 117
Atac 60 54
Hyper Casino 39 38
Bi 1 18 23
Intermarche 15 11
Galeries Gourmandes 3 2
Simply Market Gourmand 1 1
Champion 1 1
Chain Store Numbers
95
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GERMANY
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Total 32306 31220 30667
Hypermarkets 2062 2082 2093
Large supermarkets 5229 5703 5712
Small supermarkets 20575 19843 19677
Superettes 4440 3592 3185
Store Universe Numbers
HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² LARGE SUPERMARKETS 1000 - 2500 m2 SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
Grocery+drugdiscounter 35,343 35,143
Edeka 11,694 11,622
Markant 7,689 7,66
Rewe 6,828 6,825
Aldi 4,221 4,159
Lidl 3,195 3,182
Other 1,717 1,695
Chain Store Numbers
96
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ITALY
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Total 117429 116400 89511
Hypermarkets 867 876 887
Large supermarkets 2592 2585 2661
Small supermarkets 10391 10483 10518
Superettes 14120 13365 12613
Traditional grocers 89459 89091 62832
Store Universe Numbers
HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² LARGE SUPERMARKETS 1000 - 2500 m2 SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2 TRADITIONAL GROCERS <100 m2
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
COOP ITALIA 1550 1567
CONAD 2865 2915
SELEX COMMERCIALE 2190 2241
ESSELUNGA 152 155
GRUPPO CARREFOUR ITALIA SPA 1035 1011
GRUPPO AUCHAN 1801 1711
EUROSPIN 1025 1079
GRUPPO VEGE 1811 1859
LIDL ITALIA 597 616
GRUPPO PAM 914 857
FINIPER 243 250
GRUPPO SUN 584 588
CRAI 2058 2181
Chain Store Numbers
97
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
NETHERLANDS
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Total 4998 5037 4872
Hypermarkets 56 55 55
Large supermarkets 1623 1693 1761
Small supermarkets 2840 2827 2749
Superettes 479 462 307
Store Universe Numbers
HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² LARGE SUPERMARKETS 1000 - 2500 m2 SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
Albert Heijn 958 962
Jumbo 580 583
Plus 261 260
Detailresult 198 200
Dirk Van Den Broek 117 120
Dekamarkt 81 80
Coop 258 263
Emté 133 130
Hoogvliet 65 68
Deen 80 82
Spar Formule 241 261
Jan Linders 59 60
Poiesz 68 68
Mcd 39 41
Aldi 498 490
Lidl 411 412
Chain Store Numbers
98
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PORTUGAL
Store Universe Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Total 15874 15523 15465
Hypermarkets 98 100 103
Large supermarkets 404 427 457
Small supermarkets 1373 1371 1386
Superettes 3215 3094 3339
Traditional grocers 10784 10531 10180
HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² LARGE SUPERMARKETS 1000 - 2500 m2 SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2 TRADITIONAL GROCERS <100 m2
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
Total Sonae 225 245
Auchan 33 40
Total Jerónimo Martins 396 405
Intermarché 243 245
Lidl 245 250
Minipreço 541 543
Chain Store Numbers
99
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SPAIN
Store Universe Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Total 51085 51611 51615
Hypermarkets 449 452 453
Large supermarkets 3562 3684 3688
Small supermarkets 5269 5332 5335
Superettes 9696 10086 10089
Traditional grocers 32109 32057 32050
HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² LARGE SUPERMARKETS 1000 - 2500 m2 SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2 TRADITIONAL GROCERS <100 m2
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
Mercadona, S.A. 1,614 1.627
Dia, S.A. 3,704 3,553
Grupo Carrefour 618 687
Grupo Eroski 1,302 1,284
Auchan Retail España, S.A. 357 366
Lidl Supermercados, S.A.U. 528 545
Consum, Sdad.Coop. 676 696
El Corte Ingles/Hipercor 274 271
Coviran, S.C.A. 1,729 1,724
Aldi Supermercados, S.L. 263 278
Condis Supermercats, S.A. 479 525
Ahorramas, S.A. 251 252
Gadisa (Grupo) 314 317
Bon Preu, S.A. 169 174
Alimerka, S.A. 173 172
Grupo Froiz 284 286
Dinosol Supermercados, S.L. 218 216
Uvesco, S.L. 206 230
Chain Store Numbers
100
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UNITED KINGDOM
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Total 31987 32570 32570
Hypermarkets 1677 1694 1694
Large supermarkets 1943 1924 1924
Small supermarkets 3193 3135 3135
Superettes 15472 16183 16183
Traditional grocers 9702 9634 9634
Store Universe Numbers
HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² LARGE SUPERMARKETS 1000 - 2500 m2 SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2 TRADITIONAL GROCERS <100 m2
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
Tesco 2590 2593
Sainsbury 1382 1406
Asda 565 572
Morrisons 491 491
Co operative 3969 3707
Waitrose 354 355
Iceland 837 862
Aldi 684 762
Lidl 650 694
M&S 902 956
Chain Store Numbers
101
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IN THE INDUSTRY:
EUROPE EAST & CENTRAL
BELARUS
Store Universe Numbers
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Euroopt 344 452 500
Rublevski 63 71 74
Belmarket 69 74 70
Mart Inn 30 29 25
ProStore 5 5 5
Gippo 12 11 11
Almi 43 43 49
Sosedi 75 70 87
Dionis 13 15 15
Korona 11 28 38
Zlatka 17 17 20
Green 3 5 7
Vitalur 39 43 47
Bigzz 3 4 7
Dobronom 191 68 158
Domashni 3 36 50
Chain Store Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hyper&supermarkets 554 730 765 765
Large groceries* 1333 1358 1430
Small groceries* 3166 3061 2966
Kiosks, pavilions, &
Open markets 3371 3300 3504 3504
Chain Drugstores 1113 1258 1639
Groceries MT** 2054 2106 2153 2255
Groceries TT ** 2445 2313 2243 2341
*not reported since 2017
** since 2016
Store and Chain Banner Universe
102
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BULGARIA
Store Universe Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2015 2016 2017
Hyper / Supermarkets
(>100 sq.m) 1120 1111 1133
Small SM & Traditional
trade (<100 sq.m) 21002 20104 20103
Horeca 27642 26905 24884
Convenience 6050 5985 5860
Pharmacies 3151 3066 3033
Drug stores 2404 2142 2152
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Grocery
Billa 97 110 118
Kaufland 55 56 58
Lidl 79 83 86
Piccadilly 20 16
CBA 194 196 201
Fantastico 38 39 41
Carrefour 13
T Market 47 61 65
Cash & Carry
METRO C&C 11 11 11
Drug store
DM 54 65 71
Lilly 47 56 69
Chain Store Numbers
103
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CROATIA
Store Universe Numbers
Chain Store Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Hypermarkets 87 89 90
Supermarkets 631 638 654
Large groceries 1195 1203 1223
Medium Groceries 3063 3022 3076
Small Groceries 2173 2083 1880
Kiosks/Tobacconists 2545 2543 2449
Petrol Stations 830 822 876
Drugstores 329 325 335
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Tobacconist
Tisak 1005 949 865
iNovine 251 254 241
Fibis 11 9 8
NLK 36
Smoking kiosk 88
Drug Stores & Cosmetics
dm - drogerie markt 154 156 155
Kozmo 77 68
Bipa 72 81 98
Douglas 28 25 25
Gas Station
INA 383 391 383
Tifon 43 43 44
KTC 12
Petrol 101 101 101
Adria Oil 11 15 15
104
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CROATIA
Chain Store Numbers
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Hyper/Supermarkets, Groceries
Konzum 708 666 607
Billa 61 61
Interspar 52 53 103
Kaufland 36 39
Boso 165 173 185
Pemo 31 33 34
Bakmaz 125 131 127
NTL+NTL Istok 218 233 240
Metss 180 181 179
Trgostil 71 107 105
Diona 61 17 8
Trgonom 47 49 51
Lonia 223 243 250
Trgocentar Zabok 65 76 80
Victa 7 9 10
Sonik 108 101 84
Ribola 56 60 66
PPK Bjelovar 63 63 63
Prehrana 88 84 88
Mlin i pekare 244 287
Djelo 66 65
Jadranka trgovina 11 10
Valalta 3 2
Strahinjčica 40 47
Union 8 8
Vrutak 4 4
KTC 27
Kvarner Punat 22 23
B.tex 1
105
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CZECH REPUBLIC
Store Universe Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Supermarket (Food & Mixed Store 401 -
2500 m2) incl. Disc.
1349 1334 1311
Hupermarket (Food & Mixed Store 2501m2+)
314 318 321
Chemical stores 2203 2171 2038
Food & Mixed Store (400 m2)
13917 13642 13437
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Hyper/Supermarkets
Tesco 200 198 194
Albert 331 331 330
Globus 15 15 15
Kaufland 123 126 128
Billa 204 212 218
Discounters
Penny 357 364 373
Lidl 229 225 235
Drugstores
DM 223 223 227
Rossmann 124 131 132
PK Solvent 458 517 764
Chain Store Numbers
106
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ESTONIA
Store Universe Numbers
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Discounters
Rimi 86 90 87
Maxima 75 74 74
Prisma 8 8 8
Selver 45 47 48
Kaubamaja 6 6 50
Coop Maksimarket 9 10 10
Comarket 19 18 17
Grossi 54 55 57
Perfumeries
Rosalind 6 6 7
Ideal Kosmeetika 23 22 21
Laminto 26 26 26
I.L.U. 6 6 6
Pharmacies
Benu 143 145 148
Sudameapteek 69 68
Chain Store Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarkets 34 36 35
Supermarkets 268 279 294
Discounters 49 46 41
Superettes 295 283 285
Groceries 431 386 381
Perfumeries 176 175 166
Household/Chemical
Stores 161 149 153
Pharmacies 484 491 506
Convenience Stores 440 419 402
107
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GREECE
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Total 17651 17653 17608
Hypermarkets 58 57 56
Large supermarkets 623 629 634
Small supermarkets 1098 1116 1070
Superettes 2872 2864 2862
Traditional grocers 13000 12987 12986
Store Universe Numbers
HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² LARGE SUPERMARKETS 1000 - 2500 m2 SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2 TRADITIONAL GROCERS <100 m2
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
Ahold - delhaize 259 270
Anedik kritikos 104 127
Bazaar 72 79
Eys* 322
Massoutis 236 242
Pente 152 153
Sklavenitis 149 149
Marinopoulos* 339
Metro 203 206
Grand total 1514 1548
Chain Store Numbers
108
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HUNGARY
Store Universe Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarkets 162 162 163
Independent 10748 11948 11434
Small organized 5731 3691 3499
Large organized 604 613 581
Drug Stores 2186 2370 2196
Discounters 468 487 505
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarket
Tesco hyper 111 111 111
Auchan hyper 19 19 19
Interspar 32 32 33
Metro 13 13 13
Large + Small Organized
Tesco super 97 96 95
Spar 376 389 408
CBA 1342 668 539
Coop 3186 1445 2574
Reál 1335 451 463
Discounters
Lidl 162 164 167
Aldi 106 116 126
Others
Other 10748 11948 11434
Chain Store Numbers
109
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ISRAEL
Store Universe Numbers
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Shufersal 277 269 272
Rami Levi 39 51 58
Yeinot Bitan 69 72 84
ABA Victory 33 43 48
Superpharm 218 229 236
Chain Store Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarket 424 458 485
Supermarket 1181 1212 1230
Minimarkets 2735 2735 2735
Convenience 805 779 787
110
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KAZAKHSTAN
Store Universe Numbers
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Small 29 37 59
Lider 33 36 38
Green 41 33
BestStore 15 27 22
Ramstore 27 19 18
Bahus 17 19 24
Magnum 13 18 32
Vkusnaya Korzinka 9 14 18
A-2 14 16
Aprel 8 9 8
Chain Store Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2015 2016 2017
Large Food & Mixed
Stores 936 1015 1297
Medium Food & Mixed
Stores 5622 5828 6154
Small Food & Mixed
Stores 22147 21521 20355
Urban Kiosks & Pavilions 2675 2863 2662
Urban Open Markets 6843 7356 7874
Cosmetics/Perfumeries 2430 2493 2421
Households 2395 2405 2110
Pharmacies 5205 5332 5400
111
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LATVIA
Store Universe Numbers
Chain Store Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarkets 31 31 29
Supermarkets 253 263 269
Discounters 62 63 63
Superettes 554 533 551
Groceries 1943 1864 1843
Perfumeries 278 288 287
Household/Chemical
Stores 489 475 451
Pharmacies 806 824 832
Convenience Stores 733 686 669
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Discounters
Rimi 116 118 118
Maxima 148 150 151
Mego 91 88 91
IKI/ IKI Express 0 0 0
Cento 0 0 0
Nelda 0
Prisma 5 3 0
Elvi 122 118 116
Perfumeries/Households
Drogas 85 88 88
Kolonna/Douglas 0 0 26
Multilukss 16 16 16
Supereuro 0 0 0
Pharmacies
Mēness aptieka 220 226 234
Benu 63 64 64
Euroaptieka 51 51 52
112
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LITHUANIA
Store Universe Numbers
Chain Store Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarkets 58 63 67
Supermarkets 474 537 553
Discounters 68 10 33
Superettes 527 498 520
Groceries 2960 2844 2886
Perfumeries 512 514 523
Household/Chemical
Stores 432 422 408
Pharmacies 1261 1259 1255
Convenience Stores 1213 1102 1046
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarkets, Supermarkets
Rimi 52 55 55
Maxima 231 239 236
Norfa 138 141 141
IKI 195 217 214
IKI Express 20 19 19
Prisma 4 4 0
Fresh Market 0 0 0
Discounters
IKI Cento 24 0 0
Lidl 29
Solo 10 10 10
Perfumeries/Households
Sarma/Douglas 33 26 26
Drogas 53 53 53
Kosmada 16 17 17
Eurokos 115 116 119
Kristiana 12 12 11
Pharmacies
Eurovaistine 272 271 269
Camelia 323 330 331
Benu 85 83 84
Norfos vaistine 95 99 101
Gintarine vaistine 232 226 22
113
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POLAND
Store Universe Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarkets 342 344 346
Supermarkets excl. Discounters
3133 3125 3167
Total Discounters 3697 3776 3849
Drugstores 8419 8235 8045
Large Groceries excl. Discounters
6874 7310 7258
Large Groceries excl.
Discounters incl. Chemical Chains 8520 8982 8962
Medium Groceries 28324 27376 27265
Small Groceries 40543 38531 35418
Kiosks 11751 11336 10960
Petrol Stations 6429 6423 6343
Sweet & Alcohol 5263 5313 5657
Chain Store Numbers
Not available
114
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ROMANIA
Store Universe Numbers
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarket
Carrefour 29 32 33
Cora 11 11 11
Real 4 4 2
Auchan 33 33 33
Kaufland 107 112 116
Supermarket
Profi 367 500 696
Billa 86 86 86
Mega Image 466 523 591
Carrefour Market 106 123 146
Express 2 3 5
Angst 2 2 2
Express 41 41 41
Contact 10 10 10
drogerie markt 80 91 94
Chain Store Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Cosmetic Store 837 767 772
Discounters 354 373 406
Drogerias 71 80 91
Hypermarket 176 181 192
Kiosks 2540 2126 2076
Kiosks Newspaper 2715 2122 2040
Large Grocery 17929 19355 19322
Medium Grocery 27106 28089 27727
New-kiosk Newsagents 193 197 195
Pet Food Store 1075 1145 1169
Petrol Stations Chains 1184 1152 1158
Pharmacy 7711 7757 7656
Small Grocery 23841 19239 19106
Store Within Petrol Station 610 704 673
Supermarkets 540 546 580
Vet Pharmacy 1456 1677 1656
115
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ROMANIA
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Cash & Carry
Metro 26 25 25
Metro Punct 5 5 5
Selgros 19 21 22
Discounters
Penny Market 174 195 220
Penny Market XXL 8 8
Lidl 191 203 218
Chain Store Numbers
116
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RUSSIA
Store Universe Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2015 2016 2017
Total 205507 205456 206750
Hypermarkets 671 766 827
Small supermarkets 14768 16982 19672
Superettes 33249 35807 37676
Traditional grocers 156819 151900 148575
HYPERMARKETS > 2500m² SMALL SUPERMARKETS 400 - 1000 m2 SUPERETTES 100 - 400 m2 TRADITIONAL GROCERS <100 m2
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
Magnit 13653 15993
Pjaterochka 7820 10856
Lenta 208 295
Auchan giper 97 104
Diksi/kvartal/deshevo/viktorija 2746 2662
Chain Store Numbers
117
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SERBIA
Store Universe Numbers
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Cash & Carry
Tempo 12 12 12
Metro 11 10 9
Drugstore
Lilly 140 161 180
dm 57 71 86
Jasmin 21 30 30
Kiosks
Stampa 534 582 575
Futura Plus 603 592 536
Srem press 37 36 33
Corner Shop 102 50 51
Graf art doo 25 25
Intermezzo System 14 35
Petrol Stations
NIS 329 330 317
Lukoil 114 115
Knez petrol 70 70
OMV 61 61 61
EKO 45 54 53
AVIA 49 49
MOL 43 42
Petrol 8 8 11
DAKI Petrol 9
Chain Store Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2015 2016 2017
Hypers 85 88 88
Supers 443 491 517
Large Gr. 1006 1066 1084
Medium Gr. 3710 3812 3934
Small Gr. 10723 10484 9607
Mixed Kiosks 3549 3326 3273
Pavilions 900 834 838
Sp. Drug Stores 627 645 682
Perfumeries Pure 16 26 26
Perfumeries Mixed 412 376 344
Pharmacies 2376 2544 2854
118
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SERBIA
Chain Store Numbers
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarkets / Supermarkets / Groceries
Idea 287 301 302
Maxi 156 185 218
Aman 140 154 180
Shop & Go 165 169
Gomex 123 142 148
Persu 128 124 135
Podunavlje 92 111 122
Univerexport 40 84 94
Luki Komerc 69 71 71
Senta Promet 40 50 50
Soulfood 50 48
Trgopromet 48 46 48
Aroma Market 18 43 50
Metalac Proleter 43 43
Sunce 25 30 39
Morava 35 35
Rodic/Roda Formati 34 33 34
Trend Commerce 30 30
Europrom 31 29 29
Kastrum 26 26 29
Pekabeta /C - Market/ Mini
Maxi*** 203 27
Dis 16 24 26
Vum 24 24
Orion 22 22
Trlic Marketi 20
VP Dima 15 19 19
Amanplus 15 18
Tekijanka 11 17 17
Medius 15 15
Trnava Promet 14 14
119
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SERBIA
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarkets / Supermarkets / Groceries
ES Komerc 8 12 12
Styline 12 12
Sprint Market - 7 Juli 12 12
Tempo Express 15 13 10
Ljubago 11 12
Braca Popovic 6 11 11
Mega Market 10 10 10
Nsbomi 10 10
Žinasa 8 8
Veropoulos 6 6 6
Green Market 5 6 6
AS Trgovina 4 4 4
Fortuna 3 4 4
Orasac 1 4 4
Stanovo 3 4 4
Plitvice Marketi 4
Martinovic 2 3 3
Mercator 2 2 2
Interex 9
Novitas 14
Angropromet 26
Ljubisavljevic 20
Rekić 20
Višnjica 22
Lurdy 11
Palma 1 1
Parkic 2 1
Rič 30 30 44
Zlatan Trag 26 26 26
Gala promet 14 14
Chain Store Numbers
120
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SLOVAKIA
Store Universe Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Organized Trade (incl. Lidl)
4632 4726 4888
Non Organized Trade 3975 3821 3656
Organized Chemical
stores 514 517 550
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Hypermarkets/Supermarkets/Large Mixed
Tesco 161 154 151
Kaufland 58 62 63
Billa 131 136 145
COOP Jednota 2203 2162 2125
CBA 538 538 523
Terno+Moja Samoska 118 114 108
Discounters
Lidl 124 123 131
Drugstores
DM 136 138 142
101 163 172 182
Teta 218 246 279
Chain Store Numbers
121
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SLOVENIA
Store Universe Numbers
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Mercator 474 471 466
Mercator franchize stores 220 214 196
Spar/Interspar 97 99 100
Tuš 98 97 97
Tuš franchize stores 98 85 79
Klasek 14 14
Mlinotest 51 51 57
3 DVA 213 209 196
Delo prodaja 96 102 100
dm 71 73 79
Tuš drogerija 40 40 41
Dominur 8 4 4
Petrol 309 307 307
OMV 108 103 104
Hofer 78 81 82
Lidl 47 49 52
Eurospin 46 46 47
Fama 19 19 21
Jager 35 36 39
Mercator Beautique 8 5 5
Muller 15 15 15
MOL Slovenija 34 51 47
Ina 6 6 6
E.Leclerc 2 2 2
Agip 15
Chain Store Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2014 2015 2016
Hypermarket 157 161 162
Supermarket 317 315 317
Large Groceries 453 448 437
Medium and Small
Groceries 456 470 500
Kiosks 363 357 359
Drug Stores 141 149 143
Discounters 121 125 130
122
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TURKEY
TRADE SECTOR 2015 2016 2017
TOTAL TURKEY w/o BIM & A101
& ŞOK 2,15,059 2,11,507 2,06,521
TOTAL MODERN TRADE w/o
BIM & A101 & ŞOK 11,181 11,799 11,881
Hypermarkets (>= 2500 smq) 259 253 252
Large Supermarkets (1000-24999
sqm) 965 999 1,003
Small Supermarkets (400-999 sqm) 3,102 3,288 3,321
Small Self Service (< 400 sqm) 6,855 7,259 7,305
TRADITIONAL STORES 1,40,472 1,36,207 1,31,715
Traditional Stores (>=50 sqm) 31,490 32,347 32,130
Traditional Stores (<50 sqm) 1,08,982 1,03,860 99,585
Specialists (DFV, Tekel+Mixed
Kiosk) 31,816 31,241 30,422
Dfv 12,442 11,724 10,790
Kiosks (Tekel Kiosk+Mixed Kiosk) 19,374 19,517 19,632
Gas Stations 4,627 4,835 4,979
Perfumeries 2,357 2,377 2,308
Pharmacies 24,606 25,048 25,216
Store Universe Numbers
Years represents beginning of the year
Bim, A101 and Şok numbers are as of March
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
Perfumeries
Gratis 398 499
Rossman 65 89
Cosmohome 17 33
Cosmetica 8 10
Watsons 249 322
Cosmo City 4 4
Fatih Kozmetik 20 24
Odak 11 5
T-Shop 24 31
Yuncu Ali 9 19
Suvari 3 -
Cosmoshe - 10
Pino Kozmetik - 14
Chain Store Numbers
123
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TURKEY
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
Supermarkets
4 AS 10 9
ADANA SEKERCILER 11 12
ADESE 93 147
ADESEM 61
AKRANLAR 14 15
AKUGUR AVM 21 22
AKYURT 39 40
ALDA MARKET 8 5
ALNIACIK AVM 24 15
ALTUN CENTER 18 21
ALTUNBILEKLER 79 77
ALYA AVM 10 9
ANBERA 11 13
ARMINA MARKET 13 14
AYMAR 17 19
AYPA MARKET 10 11
BARIS GROSS 19 19
BASDAS MARKET 16 25
BASGIMPA 55 54
BEGENDIK 40 29
BICEN GIDA 26 27
BURDA 29 27
CAGDAS 100 103
CAGRI 46 53
CARMAR DIYRBAKIR 13 13
CARREFOUR 36 33
CARREFOUR EXPRESS 620 596
CELIKKAYALAR 15 16
CEM HIPERMARKET 10 10
EFOR MARKET 9 -
EGE SOK 42 50
EKO BAYMAR 9 10
ERENLER 9 9
ESSEN 13 17
FURPA MARKET 42 46
GIMSA 10 11
Chain Store Numbers
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
Supermarkets
GIZERLER 7 7
GOKKUSAGI 14 12
GROSERI 21 24
GRUP RAMMAR 42 43
GULENLER AVM 13 13
GUNEY 5 4
HADIM 36 36
HAPPY CENTER 130 134
IRMAKLAR MARKET 20 21
ISMAR TRABZON 11 11
ISRAM 11 9
IST SEYHANLAR 15 17
IYAS 5 7
KANDEMIR 8 4
KIBAROGLU 16 16
KILER-TR 36 35
KIM 80 83
KIPA 49 49
KIPA EXPRESS 118 111
MACRO 36 42
MARKA GIDA 52 -
MARKETIM AYGUN 4 3
MEPAS 24 24
METROPOL 25 -
MIGROS 1291 1414
MOPAS 103 101
NAMLI 17 20
OLI CENTER 20 20
ONUR GROUP 82 152
ONUR HIPERMARKET 23 31
ORUC 21 21
OZDILEK 18 20
OZHAN 38 44
OZKURUSLAR 27 29
OZTURK 16 10
PEKDEMIR AVM 34 28
124
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TURKEY
Chain Store Numbers
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
Supermarkets
CIVITCIOGLU - 14
AZDA SUPERMARKET - 11
MILLI PAZAR - 28
ETIK MARKETIM - 12
ACEM MARKET - 9
CERGIBOZANLAR - 26
BERKA - 13
KENTPARK AVM - 11
KILO MARKET - 12
AYDIN CETINLER - 15
MAVI KOSE - 8
KESKIN AVM - 10
KALAFATLAR - 10
NESELI - 13
STORE TYPE 2016 2017
Supermarkets
PEKDEMIR CIFTLIGI 76 77
PEKDEMIR GIDA 4 4
REAL 8 -
ROTA MARKET 10 10
SANMAR 15 15
SARIYER SPM 11 11
SAVASIR GIDA 10 10
SAYPA 67 -
SEHZADE MARKET 29 33
SEKERCILER 11 11
SEMBOL CENTER 13 13
SEREF MAKRO 195 188
SEYHANLAR 112 113
SHOW MARKET 14 15
SINCAP 26 26
SNOWY 17 18
SOYKAN 56 52
SOZ TTM 17 20
SULTAN MARKETIM 29 32
TURKIS 10 -
UCLER 11 10
UGUR AVM 12 11
UVEK 14 13
UYSAL MARKET 12 12
UYUM 60 57
YEGENLER
HIPERMARKET 7 7
YHM 8 8
YUNUS 82 94
125
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UKRAINE
Store Universe Numbers
TRADE SECTOR 2015 2016 2017
Supermarket + <2500 1920 1920 2132
Hypermarket >2500 127 132 129
Large Grocery 887 755 697
Minimarket 1963 2134 2360
Large Multipurpose 688 648 567
Medium Grocery 7502 7107 7417
Medium Multipurpose 3518 3375 3381
Small Grocery 20311 19387 21940
Small Multipurpose 2977 2767 3551
Food Pavilion 4641 4219 3923
Mixed Pavilion 1927 1875
Food Kiosk 8364 7387 6424
Mixed Kiosk 952 707
Household Store 2882 3008 3408
Pharmacy 13940 14158 14653
Perfumery 7951 7776 8406
Om 49968 45976 45211
Tobacco 1254 1282 1356
126
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UKRAINE
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
ATB 813 903
Vezunchik 182 230 257
Fora 230 238 241
Silpo 263 244 235
Delvi 115
EKO-market 106 114 114
Rukavychka 92 106 128
LotOK 31 61 85
Furshet 79 81 76
Polissya Product 71 70 74
Vopak 77 72 65
Varus 55 58 60
Veresen 26 22 13
Nektar 112
Sim-23 48 58
Epicentr 43 45
Kolibris 36 40 32
Faino Market 32 42 45
Soyuz 44 42 39
Billa 39 36 28
Blizenko 33 38
Digma 22 34
Novus 32 34
Nash Kray 28 27 26
Tochka 19 36
Grosh 4 9 2
Sviy market 23
Chain Store Numbers
127
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UKRAINE
STORE TYPE 2015 2016 2017
Metro C&C 26 27 23
555 19 17 12
Chudo market 9 12 18
Pchelka market 16
Nova Liniya 14 14
Arsen 9 10 9
Delikat 7 7 10
Fozzy hypermarket 8 9 9
Fresh 9 9 9
Karavan 9 9 2
Gostynniy dim 9 8 8
Pakko 8 8 8
Salut 6 7 7
Dobriy Kupets 8 6 6
K-Market 4 5 5
Molly 5 5 5
Pakko C&C 8 7 4
TOP MART 5 5
Vopak Uzhgorod 4 4 4
Bravo 3 3 3
Tam Tam 4 4 3
Barvinok 51 27 2
Korona 6 6
Nash! 1 1
Poltava 2 1 1
Sympatyk 1 1
Chain Store Numbers
128
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Economy Watch
% GDP per annum growth sourced from Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Inflation, consumer prices % change per annum sourced from Economist
Intelligence Unit (EIU) or from local government statistics offices where
unavailable.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted
in collaboration with Nielsen. - Survey is based on respondents with Internet
access. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of
optimism/pessimism. Q1 2017 CCI results are unavailable this quarter due to
a Nielsen global survey service enhancement.
FMCG Market Dynamics - compares overall market dynamics (value and unit
growth) in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector based on the sales
tracking Nielsen performs in the mentioned markets. The FMCG definition is
based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are
continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and channels.
Nominal value growth: Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as
measured by the total basket of reported product categories
Unit value growth (≈ ‘price’ change):
• The change in average price per unit may result from:
• Price changes of individual products
• Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive
products, more or less promotions, etc.
• Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or
hypermarkets, or convenience outlets, etc.
• Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change
or may just be the result of market dynamics.
• The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience ‘cost of
living’ in their actual grocery shopping behaviour.
Volume growth: Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of
products
Super Category Performance – definition of Super Categories are based on
local market definitions
CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS
DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES