Euromoney Country Risk...SCORING •Euromoney Country Risk is a platform designed to capture and...
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Euromoney Country Risk Q1 2018 Results
Transcript of Euromoney Country Risk...SCORING •Euromoney Country Risk is a platform designed to capture and...
Euromoney Country RiskQ1 2018 Results
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Introduction (Scoring)
2. Q/Q update
3. Y/Y update
4. Contacts
2
SCORING
• Euromoney Country Risk is a platform designed to capture and aggregate the views of country risk experts.
• It comprises real-time country risk scores for over 180 markets in 15 categories that relate to economic, structural and political risk
• There are over 400 experts (primarily economists) who are surveyed quarterly
• Historical data sets are available• Annual data back to 1993 and quarterly data back to 2011
• Our subscriber base is primarily corporate treasurers, but also includes SWFs, asset managers, banks (FX, Risk, Sovereign debt issuance)
3
GLOBAL MOVEMENTS: Q1-Q4 2017
Region Score Rank
Up Down Up Down
Africa 15 9 13 17
Americas 13 8 7 12
Asia 21 10 12 12
Australasia 5 2 0 3
Caribbean 3 6 1 10
Central & Eastern Europe 20 5 15 8
Middle East 6 6 4 6
Western Europe 16 2 7 1
TOTAL 99 48 59 69
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QUARTERLY - GLOBAL TOP/BOTTOM 5
Country 2018 Q1 Score Q/Q ChangeTo
p 5
Slovenia 67.89 4.79
Egypt 37.38 4.55
Côte d‘Ivoire 41.22 4.5
Angola 36.06 4.36
Lebanon 37.77 4.34
Bo
tto
m 5
Philippines 50.8 -2.94
Panama 51.09 -3.93
Bermuda 52.87 -3.95
Macau 67.67 -4
Brunei 47.01 -6.5
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Q1-Q4 2017 - AFRICA
6
4.55 4.5 4.363.95
3.37
-0.06 -0.21 -0.3
-2.25 -2.37
-3
-2
-1
0
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2
3
4
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Q/Q
ch
ange
20
18
Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - Africa
2018 Q1 Score Q/Q Change
Bottom 5 - Africa
Q1-Q4 2017 - AMERICAS
7
3.25
2.5
1.86
1.15 1.13
-0.37 -0.48-0.68
-0.97
-3.93
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Q/Q
ch
ange
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Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - Americas
2018 Q1 Score Q/Q Change
Bottom 5 - Americas
Q1-Q4 2017 - ASIA
8
3
2.442.17
1.69 1.54
-2 -2
-2.83 -2.94
-4
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
90
Q/Q
ch
ange
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Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - Asia
Q1 2018 Score Q/Q Change
Bottom 5 - Asia
Q1-Q4 2017 - AUSTRALASIA
9
1 1 1 1
0.65
0 0 0
-0.11
-0.5
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Q/Q
ch
ange
20
18
Q1
Sco
re
Top 5 - Australasia
2018 Q1 Score Q/Q Change
Bottom 5 - Australasia
Q1-Q4 2017 - CARIBBEAN
10
0.390.12 0.03 0 0 -0.06 -0.13
-0.51
-1.02
-3.95
-4.5
-4
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
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1
0
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20
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50
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80
90
Q/Q
ch
ange
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Sco
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Top 5 - Caribbean
2018 Q1 Score Q/Q Change
Bottom 5 - Caribbean
Q1-Q4 2017 - CEE
11
4.79
4.053.64
3.29 3.15
-0.03-0.44 -0.5
-1.06
-1.71
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
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Q/Q
ch
ange
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Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - CEE
2018 Q1 Score Q/Q Change
Bottom 5 - CEE
Q1-Q4 2017 - MIDDLE EAST
12
4.34
2.852.62
1.77
1
-0.84 -1-1.34
-1.63
-2.41
-3
-2
-1
0
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2
3
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5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Q/Q
ch
ange
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Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - Middle East
2018 Q1 Score Q/Q Change
Bottom 5 - Middle East
Q1-Q4 2017 - WESTERN EUROPE
13
3.523.35
3.19
2.41
1.4
0.07 0.02 0 -0.01
-0.96
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0
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20
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60
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Q/Q
ch
ange
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Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - Western Europe
2018 Q1 Score Q/Q Change
Bottom 5 - Western Europe
GLOBAL MOVEMENTS: Q1 2018 - Q1 2017
Region Score Rank
Up Down Up Down
Africa 30 18 20 27
Americas 15 7 9 10
Asia 21 11 14 14
Australasia 7 4 5 5
Caribbean 8 5 2 11
Central & Eastern Europe 22 3 16 7
Middle East 5 8 4 7
Western Europe 16 3 12 4
TOTAL 82 8 124 59
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YEAR ON YEAR - GLOBAL TOP/BOTTOM 5
Country 2018 Q1 Score Y/Y ChangeTo
p 5
Slovenia 67.89 5.5
Ghana 42.31 4.94
Belarus 30.22 4.77
Egypt 37.38 4.73
Angola 36.06 4.66
Bo
tto
m 5
Qatar 67.4 -2.96
Panama 51.09 -3.2
Macau 67.67 -4
Bermuda 52.87 -4.41
Brunei 47.01 -7.36
15
Q1-Q1 2017 - AFRICA
16
4.94 4.73 4.664.33
3.93
-1.3 -1.42-1.64 -1.65
-2.63
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
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0
10
20
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40
50
60
70
80
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Y/Y
chan
ge
20
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Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - Africa
2018 Q1 Score Y/Y Change
Bottom 5 - Africa
Q1-Q1 2017 - AMERICAS
17
3.37 3.32.88 2.8
2.13
-0.51-0.76 -0.89 -0.91
-3.2
-4
-3
-2
-1
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Y/Y
chan
ge
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Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - Americas
2018 Q1 Score Y/Y Change
Bottom 5 - Americas
Q1-Q1 2017 - ASIA
18
3.22.86
2.41 2.37 2.27
-2.01-2.39 -2.5
-4
-7.36
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
0
10
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70
80
90
Y/Y
chan
ge
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Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - Asia
2018 Q1 Score Y/Y Change
Bottom 5 - Asia
Q1-Q1 2017 - AUSTRALASIA
19
2.57
2.15
1.811.69
1.31
0.36
-0.01
-0.27-0.39
-1.02
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
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1.5
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Y/Y
chan
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Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - Australasia
2018 Q1 Score Y/Y Change
Bottom 5 - Australasia
Q1-Q1 2017 - CARIBBEAN
20
1.25
0.6 0.54 0.54 0.5
-0.03-0.28
-0.83
-2.51
-4.41
-5
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-3
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-1
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2
0
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80
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Y/Y
chan
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Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - Caribbean
2018 Q1 Score Y/Y Change
Bottom 5 - Caribbean
Q1-Q1 2017 - CEE
21
5.5
4.774.56
4.06
3.48
0.270.06 -0.1
-0.91
-2.04
-3
-2
-1
0
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3
4
5
6
0
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20
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80
90
Y/Y
chan
ge
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18
Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - CEE
2018 Q1 Score Y/Y Change
Bottom 5 - CEE
Q1-Q1 2017 - MIDDLE EAST
22
4.66 4.5
2.94
2.29
0.01
-1.07
-1.84
-2.48 -2.64-2.96
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
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2
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Y/Y
chan
ge
20
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Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - Middle East
2018 Q1 Score Y/Y Change
Bottom 5 - Middle East
Q1-Q1 2017 - WESTERN EUROPE
23
4.234.09
3.76
2.25 2.19
0.14 0.11-0.04
-0.19 -0.25
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
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2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
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60
70
80
90
Y/Y
chan
ge
20
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Q1
Sco
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Top 5 - Western Europe
2018 Q1 Score Y/Y Change
Bottom 5 - Western Europe
