Biophysical modelling for policy

support on agriculture and climate

change in Latin America and the

Caribbean

Maurits van den Berg

Joysee Rodriguez Baide

28/06/2016

EUROCLIMA

A program of regional cooperation between the EU and 18 countries in Latin America, focused on climate change.

Specific Objetive Phase II (2014 - 2017):to facilitate the integration of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and measures into Latin American public development policies and plans.

Implementing partners:

EUROCLIMA Political ContextLima Declaration (V EU-LAC 2008)

o Key Issues: Environment, climate change and sustainable development

Declaration of Madrid (VI EU-LAC Summit 2010)

o Focus on the actions of adaptation and mitigation of CC and cooperation this

field.

o Priorities: energy, environment, climate change, health, food and

agriculture, ICTs.

Agenda for Change of the European Union (2011)

o Prominent role of sectors that have a strong multiplier impact on the

economic development of the countries Summit..

Declaration of Santiago (EU-CELAC Summit I, 2013), Action Plan 2013-2015

o Strengthening regional cooperation against climate change, exchange of

experiences, program EUROCLIMA

Brussels (EU-CELAC Summit II, 10-11 June 2015)

EUROCLIMA Phase II (2014 – 2017)

• Improve political dialog about climate, reinforcing political awareness and institutional capacities and knowledge.

Component 1

•“No regret adaptation and mitigation measures” and with aditional benefits.

Component 2

•Sustainable agriculture and Food security: Strenghten the stakeholders capacities to adapt to and mitigate the negative effects of climate change on the agricultural sector, including measures to deal with drought and desertification.

Component 3

JRC

IICA

EuropeAid

CEPAL

EuropeAid

PNUMA

TA

Objective of the JRC-MARS component of EUROCLIMATo provide a common platform for sharing and developing data

and model tools that can be used by Latin American institutions as

a basis to test, assess and develop science-based questions

relevant to climate change impact and risk response strategies in

the region relevant to agriculture

Relevance for public policyThe results will help us identify:

• What kind of impacts are likely to happen where and when according to our current understanding, in plausible scenarios of less extreme or more extreme climate change

• Which forms of adaptation are most robust (beneficial in a wide range of scenarios)

While taking into account that the results of the models will always have a degree of uncertainty,

reflecting the restriction on observational data and our limited knowledge of how nature works.

Achievements in Phase I (2010 - 2013)

• The BioMA modeling platform adapted to Latin America

• Agro-climatic database: covering the entire continent at 25x25 km grid, containing (future) daily weather data, crop masks and soil information.

• Application (demonstration) of the system to continental scale (Multiple agro climatic indices and 4 crop yields simulated with CropSyst) in coordination with the World Bank Zones Agro Simulator Project.

• Technology transfer (very limited) through information and training workshops + dedicated websitehttp://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu/euroclima/

Demonstration of BioMACrop simulations at continental scale

BioMA

Información de suelos

Generación de datos climáticos

Mapas de cultivos

• Crop simulations:

• 3 production levels (potential, water limited, disease limited)

• Soybean, wheat, maize, rice.

Demonstration of the BioMA platformFernandes et al. (2012)

EUROCLIMA Phase II (2014-2016)

Objectives of the Biophysical Modeling Component

Taking Results of EUROCLIMA I, as a starting point:• Change BioMA platform making it more versatile, user friendly, and

providing training sessions• Update agro climatic scenarios• Increase the number of crops that can be analyzed• Conduct case studies for key production areas, including adaptation

options • Promote greater participation, ownership and relevance to stakeholder

needs through a process of consultation and strengthening the network of experts

• Increase the number of countries actively involved.

EUROCLIMA II: Engaging stakeholders

Coordination Workshop (Mexico City, September 1 to 3, 2014)

Biophysical modeling session:• Experts from 13 LAC countries• SWOT -Analysis on "The current state of biophysical • modeling" in Latin America• Decisions revised work plan and priorities for phase II: • Additional crops: sugarcane, potatoes, beans, coffee

[besides corn, wheat, soybeans, rice]• Dialogue with government stakeholders• Workshop for training and evaluation of BioMA,

together with AgMIP-LAC

EUROCLIMA - AgMIP LAC Agricultural Modelling WorkshopManizales, Colombia, 28 September - 2 October, 2015

• 80 registered participants from 15 LAC countries• Ag. Ministries, NGO’s, National scientific institutes, international

cientific institutes CIP, CIAT, CCAFS, AgMIP...• Training, technical sessions and science-policy dialogue

Objective: Improve understanding between scientists and policy makers regarding the use and relevance of models for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation options for agricultural production systems

Format• Opening ceremony

• Panel discussion

• Breakout groups discussions

• Plenary discussion

Science-Policy Dialogue(Manizales, 2 October, 2015)

General findings (widely shared consensus)

• Due to the imminent risks of climate change, adaptation is high on the political agenda (and there are plans)

• Policy response is mainly reactive, triggered by extreme events (limited role of foresight)

• To make better adaptation plans governments need better information and awareness of available tools

• Monitoring systems essential in agriculture

• Many of the Ministries of Agriculture in LAC lack human / scientific capacity

Science-Policy Dialogue(Manizales, 2 October, 2015)

Gaps between science and public policy on agriculture and climate change in LAC

• Little & difficult communication between scientists and governments

• Lack of transparency and accessibility of information

• Lack of inter-institutional cooperation / coordination

• Little cooperation and communication among government entities (e.g. ministries of agriculture, environment)

• Some noteworthy exceptions (e.g. RICCLISA, Colombia)

• Differences of time dynamics between decision making processes and process to generate supporting information (need for quick response systems)

• Lack of financial resources for agricultural research (often depends on external funds)

Science-Policy Dialogue(Manizales, 2 October, 2015)

• Stakeholder involvement is crucial but creates a need for flexibility and continuity that most R&D projects lack

• Collaboration with AgMIP very rewarding (science network, continuity)

• Science-policy dialogue good first step to enhance trust and mutualunderstanding.

• Breaking silos is needed in science and among reasearch institutes, and alsoin policy (NB EUROCLIMA focal points mostly not from agriculturalministries).

• Quick response operational systems are needed to deal with the differentdynamics between policy needs and what science can offer.

Lessons learned and challenges (to us)

• Consolidation of the Latin American «Community of modellingpractitioners»

• Further improvements to BioMA platform

• More versatility and user friendliness

• State of the art climate projections and soil information in database

• Crop-specific databases and reports for improved calibration (1 is ready)

• Organisation of webinars

• Collaborate on case studies to apply the system for impact assessments and evaluation of adaptation options

• Final EUROCLIMA phase II event early 2017

• EUROCLIMA III?

Next steps

Barbosa P, Saiote Carrao H, Cherlet M, Van Den Berg M, Rodriguez Baide J. JRC en Euroclima. Componente 3: Agricultura Sostenible y Cambio Climático. Oral

presentation in: Seminario Internacional: Cambio Climático, Política Fiscal Ambiental y Caudales Ambientales: Desafíos y Oportunidades para las Energías Sostenibles

en Latinoamérica; 26-29 May 2015; Hotel Emperador (Buenos Aires (Argentina); CEPAL (Organiser). 2015. JRC96540

Carmona Moreno C, Montanarella L, Barbosa P, Dallemand J, Niemeyer S, Arevalo Torres J, Ameztoy Aramendi I. EUROCLIMA – Scientific Component. Final Report.

Ispra (Italy): European Commission; 2014. JRC93774

Condori, B., de la Casa, A, Mazetti Fernandes A, Olarte S, Jerez ME, Clavijo Ponce NL, Rodriguez B, Gómez Benitez B, Trebejo I, García C, Machado y Lina Sarmiento

D, Rodriguez Baide J, van den Berg M. Estado del arte sobre la modelación de la producción de Papa en Latinoamérica y base de datos para empleo en

parametrización. 2016. JRC Technical Report (in press).

Donatelli M, Duveiller Bogdan G, Niemeyer S. EUROCLIMA Agriculture component. Poster presentation in: COP17 Climate Change Conference 2011; 28 November - 09

December 2011; Inkosi Albert Luthuli International Convention Centre (ICC) (Durban (South Africa)); United Nations (Organiser). 2011. JRC71018

Duveiller Bogdan G. BioMA for Latin America: a set of biophysical tools for agriculture and climate change in the frame of the project EUROCLIMA - Third Agri4cast

Euroclima workshop. Oral presentation in: BioMA for Latin America: a set of biophysical tools for agriculture and climate change in the frame of the project

EUROCLIMA - Third Agri4cast Euroclima workshop; 05-06 March 2013; INTA (Calle Chile (Buenos Aires (Argentina); Joint Research Centre (JRC), Instituto Nacional de

Technologica Agropecuaria (INTA) (Organiser). 2013. JRC80608

Fernandes, E.C.M., Soliman, A., Confalonieri, R., Donatelli, M., Tubiello, F.N., (2012) Climate Change and Agriculture in Latin America, 2020-2050 : Projected Impacts

and Response to Adaptation Strategies. World Bank, Washington DC, p. 151.

Ferrari G, Fumagalli D, Rodriguez Baide J. Introducción a BioMA - Tutorial Creación de componentes. European Commission; 2015. JRC99795

Ferrari G, Fumagalli D, Rodriguez Baide J. Introducción a BioMA - Tutorial Creación de una solución de modelado. European Commission; 2015. JRC99796

Ferrari G, Rodriguez Baide J, Fumagalli D, Ramos F. CropSyst Solución de modelado - Documentación de referencia. European Commission; 2015. JRC99797

Ferrari G, Rodriguez Baide J, Fumagalli D, Ramos F. WARM Solución de modelado - Documentación de referencia. European Commission; 2015. JRC99799

Ferrari G, Rodriguez Baide J, Fumagalli D, Ramos F. WOFOST Solución de modelado - Documentación de referencia. European Commission; 2015. JRC99800

Ficarazzi M, Rodriguez Baide J, Fumagalli D, Van Den Berg M. Training course: Introduction to BioMA Spatial. Exercises prepared for the EUROCLIMA biophysical

modelling workshop. Training in: EUROCLIMA biophysical modelling workshop; 28 September - 02 October 2015; Hotel Termales del Otoño (Antigua via al Nevado

(Manizales (Colombia); JRC-MARS, MADR (Colombia), CIAT (Colombia), AgMIP (Organiser). 2015. JRC100048

Rodriguez Baide J, Ficarazzi M, Fumagalli D. La plataforma BioMA - Taller técnico BioMA como herramienta en EUROCLIMA. Training in: EUROCLIMA biophysical

modelling workshop; 28 September - 02 October 2015; Hotel Termales del Otoño (Antigua via al Nevado (Manizales (Colombia); JRC-MARS, MADR (Colombia), CIAT

(Colombia), AgMIP (Organiser). 2015. JRC100057

Rodriguez Baide J, Fumagalli D, Van Den Berg M, Ficarazzi M. Improved BioMA platform for Latin America. European Commission; 2015. JRC99854

Rodríguez Baide, J., Néstor M. Riaño, Roberto Valdivia, Maurits van den Berg, Kenneth Boote, Cheryl Porter, Claudio Stockle, Andrew Jarvis, Edgardo Guevara, Alex

Ruane, 2016. Informe del Taller sobre Modelación para la Evaluación Regional de Cambio Climático y Agricultura en Latinoamérica y el Caribe (LAC). 28 de septiembre

- 2 de octubre 2015, Manizales, Colombia.

Van Den Berg M, Rodriguez Baide J, Guevara E, Condori Alí B, Marin F, Meza F, Riaño H N, Martínez Barón D, Quirós Madrigal O, Vázquez Montenegro R, Rosales

Riveiro K, Arévalo De Gauggel G, Martínez López R, Ortiz-Monasterio Rosas I, Flores A, Valdivia R, Trebejo Varillas I, Tiscornia G. Reporte: I Taller de Coordinación

IICA-JRC EUROCLIMA. Sesión Paralela JRC: Modelación Biofísica de los Sistemas Agrícolas. 1 – 3 de Septiembre, 2014, México D.F.

. European Commission; 2014. JRC93879

Van Den Berg M. Proyecto EUROCLIMA, filosofía, objetivos, uso de herramientas, potencialidades y limitaciones. Training in: Taller Sobre Modelación para la

evaluación regional de Cambio Climático y la Agricultura para Latinoamérica y el Caribe (LAC); 28 September - 02 October 2015; Hotel Termales del Otoño (Antigua

via al Nevado (Manizales (Colombia); JRC-MARS, MADR (Colombia), CIAT (Colombia), AgMIP (Organiser). 2015. JRC100072

Publications and presentations

Thank you!

maurits.van-den-berg@jrc.ec.europa.euwww.euroclima.org

Bibliographic information: Van Den Berg M; Rodriguez Baide J. Biophysical modelling for policy supporton agriculture and climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean. Oral presentation in: AgMIP6 Global Workshop; 28-30 June 2016; Le Corum (Montpellier (France). 2016. JRC102612